Managing water in a carbon, energy, and nutrient-constrained world ANDREW CAMPBELL Water in the Bush, 21 October 2011
http://riel.cdu.edu.au
Key Points • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end • The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here • Water security is a looming issue for northern Australia • Food security will be affected by all of these, and climatic events • Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important • We tend to deal with these issues in science, planning and policy silos • How could the NT lead the way in developing better approaches? 2
The climate is changing‌‌ For the best current NT data, you should have been at CDSS last week. Presentations will soon be up at http://riel.cdu.edu.au
Predicted climate change impacts, Top End • Warmer temperatures on land, and in the ocean − Days >35˚C to rise from 11/year to more than 60/year by 2030
• Probably wetter Wets and possibly drier Dry seasons • Probably fewer cyclones, but higher % of Cat 4 & 5 − 60% increase in intensity of severe storms by 2030
• Rising sea levels (currently 7mm/year) — big implications built & natural • Increased risk of food, water and vector-borne diseases • Potential change in range of weeds & pests • Likely increasing challenge of managing fire extent and intensity • Increased heat stress and ticks on cattle (20% impact on beef production by 2030)
4
Observed rates of relative mean sea level rise (mm/year) over last 18 years +7.1 +7.5
+6.1 +7.5
+2.5 +1.2
+6.9
+2.9 +3.9
+4.2
+1.5 +2.3
+1.8 +3.0
SEAFRAME May 1990 Datum +0.3mm/yr
Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 | Slide 5
Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU
Sea level rise & saltwater intrusion Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU
Tommycut Tidal Creek 1943
2km
Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 | Slide 7
Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU
Tommycut Estuary 2006
2km
Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 | Slide 8
Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU
Tommycut hypersaline mud flats were once fresh water wetlands
Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU
Converging Insecurities Climate change is not happening in a vacuum, but in parallel with other major drivers: • Population growth (on track for 9 billion by 2050) • Depletion of easily accessible oil reserves − Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and oil production is in decline, with 4 barrels consumed for every 1 discovered − 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak point − The average post-peak production rate of decline is 6.7% per year − Australia has been a net importer since 1985, on track for depletion by 2020
• Changing consumption patterns 10
Consumption of animal products 140
Meat consumption kg/cap/yr
projections
data 120 100
USA
80 60 40
World 20
China India
1961
2003
2050
IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management In Agriculture http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/
Source: IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water In Agriculture
11
How much more food – future meat demands Meat demand in kg/cap/yr
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
OECD
IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management In Agriculture http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/
12
How much more cereals?
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
OECD
IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management In Agriculture http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/
13
Total food demand nearly doubles by 2050 Without improvements in water productivity, agricultural water demand (ET) doubles from 6400 km3 to 12000 km3 by 2050
Grain
Sugarcane
Vegetables
IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management In Agriculture http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/
14
Water • Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average • Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already overcommitted IWMI Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management In Agriculture http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/
15
Feeding the world • The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution • We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land – and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides
• Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients. We need to grow food: – Using less land, water & energy and emitting less carbon – Improving nutrition, distribution, animal welfare, pollution – Looking after rural landscapes, biodiversity, animal welfare, amenity & communities 16
Water, energy, and GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia
Energy & GDP
17
Water & GDP
Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy
from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
Household Water Use in selected cities (thanks Mark Wiltshire PWC)
Our Garden Water Habits (thanks Mark Wiltshire PWC)
2009 Darwin Water Consumption v's House Lot Size (<2000m2) 10000 9000
Consumption (kL/yr)
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
Darwin Av. 422kL/yr 0 0
500
1000
1500
Housing Land Size (m2)
2000
2500
Profound technical challenges 1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate 3. To increase water productivity —
decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship
1.
To increase energy productivity – –
1.
more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy
To develop more sustainable food systems – –
while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health
1. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY! — improving sustainability and resilience
Scales for response to climate change â&#x20AC;˘ Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscape-scale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes. â&#x20AC;˘ It is the scale which lends itsel
CSIRO 2010
We need a third agricultural revolution • High level goals: e.g. doubling food & fibre production while doubling water productivity, and becoming a net energy producer from farming & pastoral lands • How to get there? – Farming systems that make more efficient use of and conserve water, energy, nutrients, carbon and biodiversity – Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance, biotech – Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity – Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain – Farming systems producing renewable (2nd gen) bioenergy • Also producing energy from waste
22
– Urban and peri-urban food production – Attracting talented young people into careers in agriculture
Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a current case • Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA – $1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production
• 100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised • Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption – And hence greenhouse gas emissions
• Options: – – – –
Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent) Conversion to biodiesel Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting
• Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon 23 company
24
Lessons from the MDB • The hydro-illogical cycle is alive and well Commitment to water reform inversely proportional to rainfall
The pendulum has swung too far to centralism You can’t micro-manage water from Canberra
• Establish broad principles based on best available science • Invest in fine-grained observational systems & use them • Empower local governance & distributed leadership • Manage adaptively — the whole water cycle 25
Climate-smart land use in the Top End • Managing whole landscapes to increase carbon storage – – – –
Smarter fire regimes Better control of weeds and feral animals Substantial co-benefits for biodiversity (wildlife and plants) More sustainable livelihoods for traditional owners and pastoralists
• Increasing food production for local resilience and food security – –
Groundwater (sustainable yield) and wastewater-based irrigation mosaics Within and near to population centres
• Integrating production of renewable energy – Large scale (solar, geothermal, tidal) for regional centres and export – Small scale (solar, wind, biodiesel, biomass) for households and remote firms & communities 26
Planning landscapes & infrastructure • How can this all ‘fit’ at a landscape and regional scale? • The landscape needs to be re-plumbed and re-wired • We need new planning approaches that: – are robust under a range of climate change & demographic scenarios – build in resilience thinking (e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia) – accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options (energy, transport, food) – safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production – facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy
Leading, educating and bringing the community on board
Reflections on Darwin & the NT
• We are at the end of long, vulnerable food supply chains • Real energy, nutrient and chemical prices (& hence local food prices) will likely increase steeply • We currently dump nutrient-rich waste in the harbour • There is plenty of scope to increase local food production − at household, urban and peri-urban scales − integration with local markets minimises food miles
• And to better utilise water, waste & waste water • Potential integration of municipal/industrial waste with purpose-grown (not weedy) biomass energy crops
In Summary • Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending • The carbon pricing era has begun • Rural, urban and regional planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food • The Territory has both the imperative (risk exposure) and the opportunity (manageable scale, ability to get things done) to lead Australia (& the region) in managing these converging insecurities • This will deliver high value jobs & position the NT economy well
LETS GO FOR IT
29
For more info
http://riel.cdu.edu.au