The Climate-Energy-Water nexus: what sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it?
Andrew Campbell Triple Helix Consulting www.triplehelix.com.au
Outline • Converging Insecurities – – – –
Climate Water Energy Food
• Intersections and interstices – On-ground examples
• Knowledge, science & policy 2
Key Points • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end • The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here • Water security will be a perennial issue for southern Australia • Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important
• We tend to deal with these issues in science and policy silos • But at operational levels, the trade-offs are very real already • What sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it? 3
Drivers for change • Climate • Water • Energy • Food • Population, demography, consumption and development pressures
• Competition for land & water resources • Resource depletion & degradation
Water • Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average • Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already over-committed
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Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Total annual* inflow** to Perth dams (GL) 100 0
19111914 19171920 1923 19261929 19321935 19381941 1944 19471950 19531956 1959 19621965 19681971 19741977 1980 19831986 19891992 19951998 2001 20 Annual inflow
1911–1974 (338 GL av)
1975–1996 (177 GL av)
Notes: * year is taken as May to April and labelled year is beginning (winter) of year ** inflow is simulated based on Perth dams in 2001 and 2005 is total until 3 August 2005
1997–2004 (115 GL av)
Water, energy, and GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia
Energy & GDP
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Water & GDP
Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy
from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
Climate-water-energy feedbacks • Saving water often uses more energy, and viceversa • Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water •
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more waterintensive
• Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos 8
from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
Profound technical challenges 1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate 3. To increase water productivity — decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship
4. To increase energy productivity – –
more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy
5. To develop more sustainable food systems – –
while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health
6. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY! — improving sustainability and resilience
Perspectives from the top of the APS Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009: Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:
“ By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity…. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies… We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers. ” 10
http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm
On-ground examples • Energy Tree Cropping (CRC FFI) • Murrumbidgee Irrigation • Coliban Water
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Woody biomass energy • Learning from the Vikings: – Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates – Private forestry thinnings etc produce 23% of Finland’s primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finland’s electricity – In Sweden it is 20% (already higher than oil) with a target of 40%
• Foran et al suggest woody biomass energy can fuel Australia • WA already in the lead 12
CRC Future Farm Industries energy tree crops Developing an efficient supply chain for woody energy crops integrated into wheatbelt farming systems. Solving a bottleneck with the invention of a new harvesting head Water yield trade-offs minimal, because <10% of farm area, in low rainfall zones. Distance from mill important â&#x20AC;&#x201D; decentralised grid.
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“Carbon plus” wool, beef and sheep meat
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Forestry integrated with farming vs replacing farming
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Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a current case • Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA – $1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production
• 100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised • Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption – And hence greenhouse gas emissions
• Options: – – – –
Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent) Conversion to biodiesel Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting
• Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon company – Liberating potential opportunities through a more integrated approach 18
Coliban Water Greenhouse Gas Emissions â&#x20AC;˘ Note total emissions have trebled in five years
Coliban Water emissions per Megalitre â&#x20AC;˘ Note water supply emissions up tenfold in five years, now level with sewage treatment, which is stable
The Coliban Water Radar Screen Balancing competing priorities: Social Technical Environmental Economic Political
Transition to carbon-neutral, energy-positive, water-smart rural landscapes
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The integration imperative • Managing whole landscapes – – – – –
“where nature meets culture” (Simon Schama) landscapes are socially constructed beyond ‘ecological apartheid’ NRM means people management engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour
• Integration - across issues — e.g climate, energy, water, food, biodiversity - across scales — agencies, governments, short-term, long-term - across the triple helix — landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods
What sorts of knowledge do we need? • • •
Integrated metrics, or tools for integrating metrics Crude mud maps of generic trade-offs and win-wins Narratives that make the challenge more meaningful
– Including international best practice case studies
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How to articulate, quantify and evaluate CEW interactions, tradeoffs and synergies holistically
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Better CEW project assessment tools for new developments, and optimisation tools for improving them
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How might we acquire that knowledge?
• A Water, Energy & Land (WEL) R&D Corporation? – need to work with at least four Ministers & their agencies
• A CEW CRC? • A Sustainability Commission with a research mandate? – sister agency to the Productivity Commission? – or an expansion of its mandate? – or completely independent and whole of government, like the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment?
• Training in systems thinking and network leadership for bright, mid-level cohorts across govt & industry • Commitment to some pilots – e.g. greenfield suburbs, regional centres on the margins of the grid 25
For more information
e.g. Paddock to Plate Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy
www.triplehelix.com.a u