Converging Insecurities: climate, energy, water and food ANDREW CAMPBELL CDU 15 JULY 2011 Research Institute for the Environment & Livelihoods
Outline • Converging Insecurities – – – –
Climate Water Energy Food
• Intersections and interstices – On-ground examples
• Knowledge, science & policy 2
Key Points • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end • The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here • Water security will be a perennial issue for southern Australia • Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important • We tend to deal with these issues in science and policy silos • But at operational levels, the trade-offs are very real already • What sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it? 3
The human footprint on the planet 1950
2050
Population
2 billion
9 billion
CO2
310 ppm
>450ppm
Energy Use
80EJ/yr
>550EJ/yr
Sea Levels
————
0.2-1.5m higher
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This trajectory cannot be sustained without a radical decoupling of economic growth from resource depletion and degradation, and from emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG).
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Achieving such a decoupling is the most profound structural change the world has ever attempted
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Climate The core problem: population & carbon emissions
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Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical
The climate is changing……
Impacts • As greenhouse gases increase – so does temperature • land, sea & air
– – – – –
and sea levels oceans more acidic snow & ice melt more variable climate more extreme weather
• Climate change is the biggest market failure the world has seen (Stern and Garnaut)
Water • Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average • Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already overcommitted • We need a radical increase in water productivity 8
Global food demand ASSUMPTIONS •
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Source: Dr Megan Clark (CSIRO) Presentation to the Science & Technology in Society Forum Japan, 6 October 2009
Continued growth in per capita food consumption in developing countries to equal developed countries (3330kcal/day) by 2050 Diversion of land & water etc for biofuels grows to 15% by 2050 No food wastage prior to 1920, increasing to current levels of 30%, then flat (i.e. no reduction in food waste in future) NOTE: a Petacal is 1015 calories an Exacal is 1018 calories 9
Feeding the world
• The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution • We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land – and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides
• Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients 10
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But maybe we ain’t seen nothin yet….
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World
Energy & nutrients • The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close
World oil demand expected to grow 50% by 2025 Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and production is in decline, 4 barrels used for each 1 discovered 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak, declining at average 6.7% per year The world needs new production six times that of Saudi Arabia today to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030 13
• Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agrichemicals, transport and food
Oil production decline (3) “ a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.” UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a nearterm peak in global oil production, August 2009
“we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day”
Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009 “The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling is stupefying. It’ll be even greater if governments keep pretending that it isn’t going to happen.”
George Monbiot, The Guardian 16.11.09 14
Land & soil • The FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by net primary productivity) from 19812004 • Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent:
– >20 percent of all cultivated areas >30 percent of forests >10 percent of grasslands • 1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded • Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of the land surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991, because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html
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Climate-energy-water feedbacks
• Saving water often uses more energy, and viceversa • Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water •
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive
• Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
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Water, energy, and GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia
Energy & GDP
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Water & GDP
Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water intensity of our economy
from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
Profound technical challenges 1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate 3. To increase water productivity — decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship
1.
To increase energy productivity – –
1.
more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy
To develop more sustainable food systems – –
while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health
1. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY! — improving sustainability and resilience
Scales for response to climate change • Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscapescale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes. • It is the scale which lends itself to integrated, whole of ecosystem and cross tenure solutions. • In Australia the most threatened components of biodiversity are in the intensive zones and
CSIRO 2010
Perspectives from the top of the APS
Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009: Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:
“ By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity…. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies… We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers. ”
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http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm
On-ground examples •
Murrumbidgee Irrigation
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Coliban Water
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Energy Tree Cropping (CRC FFI)
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Murrumbidgee Irrigation a current case
• Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA – $1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production
• 100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised – – –
Replacing ‘leaky’, gravity-fed open earthen channels Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption And hence greenhouse gas emissions
• Options: – – – –
Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent) Conversion to biodiesel Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting
• Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon company – Liberating opportunities through a more integrated approach 22
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Coliban Water Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Note total emissions have trebled in five years • ‘Superpipe’ to Bendigo from the Goulburn online in 2007
Coliban Water emissions per Megalitre • Note water supply emissions up tenfold in five years, now level with sewage treatment, which is stable
The Coliban Water Radar Screen Balancing competing priorities: Social Technical Environmental Economic Political
Woody biomass energy • Learning from the Vikings: – Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates – Private forestry thinnings etc produce 23% of Finland’s primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finland’s electricity – In Sweden it is 20% (already higher than oil) with a target of 40%
• Foran et al suggest woody biomass energy can fuel Australia • WA already in the lead
– 2nd Gen biofuels (mallees) 48 times more energetically efficient than ethanol 27
CRC Future Farm Industries energy tree crops • Developing an efficient supply chain for woody energy crops integrated into wheat belt farming systems. • Solving a bottleneck with the invention of a new harvesting head • Water yield tradeoffs minimal — <10% of farm area, in low rainfall zones. Sensitive to distance from mill — decentralised grid.
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“Carbon plus” wool, beef and sheep meat
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Biocarbon/energy integrated with farming vs replacing farming
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Transition to carbon-neutral, energy-positive, water-smart rural landscapes
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The integration imperative • Managing whole landscapes – “where nature meets culture” (Simon Schama) – landscapes are socially constructed – beyond ‘ecological apartheid’ – NRM means people management – engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour
• Integration across issues — e.g climate, energy, water, food, biodiversity across scales — agencies, governments, shortterm, longterm across the triple helix — landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods
What sorts of knowledge do we need?
• Integrated metrics, or tools for integrating metrics • Simple mud maps of generic tradeoffs and winwins • Narratives that make the challenge more meaningful – Including international best practice case studies
• How to articulate, quantify and evaluate CEW (and food) interactions, tradeoffs and synergies holistically
• Better CEW project assessment tools for new
developments, and optimisation tools for improving them (across water, energy, carbon & food) 35
What sorts of knowledge do we need (2)?
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Component technologies that help us to reduce the carbon, energy and water intensity of our economy
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Systems and integrative tools for putting whole packages together across STEEP (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political) dimensions
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Inter and transdisciplinary sciences, closely linked to the policy and management environments (leading edge SMEs & consultants)
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Institutional analysis tools to spotlight blockages and develop more facilitative planning and regulatory environments
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Community engagement — work with champions, bring communities along the journey 36
How might we acquire that knowledge? • A Water, Energy & Land (WEL) R&D Corporation? – (see PC Inquiry submissions (271) and reports) – need to work with at least four Ministers & their agencies
• A Climate-Energy-Water CRC to build research capacity & improve integration? • A Sustainability Commission with a research mandate? – sister agency to the Productivity Commission? – or an expansion of its brief? 37
How might we acquire that knowledge(2)? • Shared training in systems thinking and network leadership for bright, mid-level cohorts across government & industry • Commitment to some pilots – e.g. greenfield suburbs (Weddell?), regional centres on the margins of the grid, remote communities • Longer term education programs in unis, schools, households, firms, community groups • Social learning: much smarter use of web 2.0 technologies, linked to real-time smart meters etc 38
Reflections • Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending • The carbon pricing era has begun! • Rural, urban and regional planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food • Such integration is a real challenge for science, and for policy • ….and for the interface between science and policy • Rich and diverse opportunities for environmental professionals in almost every aspect of economy and society
GO FOR IT! 39
For more information
e.g. Paddock to Plate Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy
www.cdu.edu.au/riel