Redesigning Food Systems for a carbon-, water-, energy- ... by RIEL

Redesigning Food Systems

for a carbon-, water-, energy& nutrient-constrained world

Andrew Campbell PHAA Canberra, 20 April 2010 www.triplehelix.com.au

Outline 1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems – – – – –

Food security Climate change Water Energy Land & nutrients

1. Technical challenges & opportunities 2

2. Policy challenges and opportunities

For more info e.g. Paddock to Plate

Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems & Background Paper

www.triplehelix.com.au 3

1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems

• World food demand • Climate chaos • Water scarcity • Energy security

• Soil, nutrients & other resource constraints • Human health & animal welfare 4

• The policy responses to all of the

The Food System • Has a very large environmental footprint – E.g. more than half total household water consumption

• Is critically dependent on climate, water, energy, land and nutrients • Is affected by constraints or perturbations in any of these factors

The core problem: population & carbon emissions

Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008

Some people are (wrongly) trying to represent the last decade as indicating a cooling trend.

Water • Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average • Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already over-committed

Perth’s Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Total annual* inflow** to Perth dams (GL) 100 0

19111914 19171920 1923 19261929 19321935 19381941 1944 19471950 19531956 1959 19621965 19681971 19741977 1980 19831986 19891992 19951998 2001 20 Annual inflow

1911–1974 (338 GL av)

1975–1996 (177 GL av)

Notes: * year is taken as May to April and labelled year is beginning (winter) of year ** inflow is simulated based on Perth dams in 2001 and 2005 is total until 3 August 2005

1997–2004 (115 GL av)

Melbourneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Annual Storage Inflow GL (19132007)

In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept. Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.

Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin

World

Energy & nutrients â&#x20AC;˘ The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close

Australia

â&#x20AC;˘ Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agrichemicals, transport and food

Oil dependence and decline • World demand is currently 83-87 million barrels per day, around 31 billion barrels per year • World oil demand is/was expected to grow by 50% by 2025 • 90% of all transport uses oil • 95% of all goods in shops involve use of oil • 95% of all food products require oil

YET…. • Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and oil production is in decline, with 4 barrels consumed for every 1 discovered • 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak point • 14

The average post-peak production rate of decline is 6.7% per year

Oil production decline (2) •

Between 2005 and 2008, conventional oil production ceased to grow, despite massive investment, increasing demand and prices. This is unprecedented.

•

The ratio of units of energy in/energy out (EROI) from oil is decreasing. In the USA, EROI has shrunk from about 100:1 in the 1930s to 14:1 today.

•

EROI of tar sands production vary between 10:1 (optimistic) and 2:1

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that: •

By 2015, the gap between supply and demand will be 7m barrels per day (7.7% of projected world demand, 60% of China’s demand, and 39% of USA)

•

Oil production from existing fields will drop by almost 50% from 2008-2020

•

The world needs new production six times that of Saudi Arabia today to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030.

The IEA has a history of over-estimating oil reserves and 15 production

Oil production decline (3) “The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.” UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a nearterm peak in global oil production, August 2009

“we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day” Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009

Land & soil • The FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by net primary productivity) from 1981-2004 • Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent: – >20 percent of all cultivated areas >30 percent of forests >10 percent of grasslands • 1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded • Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of the land surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991, because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas 17

http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html

Water, energy, and GDP Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia

Energy & GDP

Water & GDP

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy

from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Climate-water-energy feedbacks • Saving water often uses more energy, and viceversa • Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water •

E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more waterintensive

• Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos 20

from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Where does “Business as Usual” take us?

•

A food system less capable of delivering healthy, affordable food reliably in a variable climate

•

Intensifying pressure on the resource base

•

Greater exposure & vulnerability to rising energy & nutrient prices

•

Intensifying competition for rural land & water

•

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions

•

Ever-declining water security and energy security

•

Exacerbating pressures on rural communities

•

Difficulties in attracting talent to rural industries

2. Technical challenges & opportunities 1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To increase water productivity,

decoupling the every calorie = 1 litre relationship

3. To increase energy productivity – –

more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

1. To develop more sustainable food systems – –

while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

1. To achieve all of the above simultaneously! 22

Types of Response We need to be operating in each of these quadrants Develop research partnerships +/or link into existing collaborations

Source: FFI CRC EverCrop

We need a third agricultural revolution — what might it look like? • Closed loop farming systems (water, energy, nutrients, carbon) • Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity • Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain • Farming systems producing renewable bioenergy (2nd generation) • Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance • Urban food production, recycling waste streams & urban water • New/old food marketing systems • Detailed product specification 24

Implications for knowledge needs* • Climate change spans all of these domains • If temp increase > 2ºC, then disorder & chaos will reign • The challenge is to handle the necessary range of simultaneous responses

– to work in all of these domains at once – to develop a system-wide perspective – & the knowledge systems and learning strategies to * David Snowden & Mary Boone (2007) underpin that perspective

“Leader's Framework for Decision Making” Harvard Business Review

Knowledge, Research and Innovation • The VEIL project (Larsen et al 2008) comprehensively mapped knowledge gaps and innovation opportunities • The evidence base needs work, especially along the value chain — more Life Cycle Analyses a high priority • New research alliances are needed across and along the food value chain, from farming to health • Work is needed in all four quadrants – Modify; Adapt; Innovate; and Create

• Much of this research needs to be participative, action-oriented, systems-focused • Underpinned by serious investment in leadership & training 26

Emerging Research Opportunities

• Urban food production (shorter supply chains)

• Forensic mapping of stocks and flows of water, energy, nutrients and biomass in urban and peri-urban areas to identify opportunities for use in food production • Integrate the above 2 points into Food Sensitive Urban Design • Opportunities from waste (e.g. algal biodiesel) • Spatial optimisation for food, water, carbon & energy from a regional planning perspective • Integrated farming of food, energy (biofuels & bioenergy) & carbon — site and landscape scale 27

3. Policy challenges & opportunities — time for new alliances & perspectives • Healthy farms, healthy landscapes, healthy soils, healthy food, healthy people & healthy communities are interconnected • We are not used to seeing the farming system, the energy system or the water system, or urban design for that matter, as connected to the health system Source: Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (2007)

• This needs to change

Perspectives from the top of the APS (1) Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009: Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

“ By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity…. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies… We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers. ” 29

http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm

A food policy agenda • Propositions from Campbell (2009) “Paddock to Plate” (published by the ACF & also at www.triplehelix.com.au)