Ripon Forum - December 2023 by The Ripon Society

TO OL “ EF GA TW V IN IN by G FO & K Ke R T AM vin HE A Ki WE LA: le ST y W IN G? ”

“WE NEED TO BE FOCUSED AND STEADY TO PRODUCE RESULTS FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.” Thom Tillis explains what Republicans need to do to retake the Senate.

December 2023 Volume 57, No. 6

Advice for the New House Speaker:

GOVERN LIKE IT’S 1999 by JOHN FEEHERY

Plus: “State of the Race” by David Winston & Myra Miller “The Elections Last Month and the Lessons for Next Year” by Kyle Kondik And: “Bidenomics Defined - What Every Voter Should Know” by EJ Antoni www.riponsociety.org

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“Ideas that matter, since 1965.“ Volume 57, Number 6 Politics & Perspective

Cover Story (cont’d)

Gavin & Kamala: Too Left Wing for the West Wing? By Kevin Kiley While California’s Governor and the Vice President both played starring roles in San Francisco’s decline, each has also had a significant hand in spreading the city’s radical politics beyond the peninsula.

Bidenomics Defined: What Every Voter Should Know By EJ Antoni Compared to when Biden took office, Americans are paying 20 percent more for food and 38 percent more for gasoline. It also costs 28 percent more to keep your home warm this winter.

The Elections Last Month & the Lessons for the Coming Year By Kyle Kondik The election results in November did not point to big problems for Democrats. Of course, presidential elections are different than mid-terms or odd-numbered year elections.

Candidates to Watch in 2024 By Caroline Banaszak We asked top GOP strategists a simple question -when you look out across the country, who do you see as being some of the Republican rising stars that America will be reading more about next year?

America’s Quantum Leadership By Frank Lucas Breakthroughs in quantum technologies are changing the world, and unless we continue to strengthen our domestic quantum industry, adversaries like China will dominate the field.

Debate — “Should the Electoral College be Preserved?” 20

Yes, it Protects Against Tyranny By James Wallner Abolishing the Electoral College would be a mistake. It helps make self-government work. Delegates to the Federal Convention rejected allowing the people to elect the president directly. No, it’s Time to Bid Farewell to the Electoral College By Dan Glickman The Electoral College, a mechanism devised to preserve the relative electoral power of smaller states, now stands as an antiquated relic that undermines the principles of fairness and equality.

Cover Story 10

Advice for the New House Speaker: Govern Like It’s 1999 By John Feehery Nearly 25 years ago, Congressional Republicans, facing daunting poll numbers after a failed (and unpopular) attempt to oust President Clinton through impeachment, decided to go positive.

State of the Race By David Winston & Myra Miller One of the important dynamics for 2024 is that if the current primary frontrunners, Biden and Trump, have a rematch, both would go into the campaign with negative brand images.

Sections

Publisher The Ripon Society Jim Conzelman, President Editor Lou Zickar Deputy Editor Caroline Banaszak Advertising Coordinator Danielle Wagner

Editorial Board Thomas Tauke Erik Paulsen Billy Pitts Pamela Sederholm Jim Murtha John Feehery Sara Glenn

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In this Edition News & Events - “Gonzales & Pfluger Push to Strengthen Security Along Southern Border” Ripon Profile of U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis

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RIPON FORUM December 2023

69%

American Success Relies on American Chemistry

of Americans feel strongly that EPA should do more to ensure the restrictions they impose don’t do harm to the U.S. economy.

Chemistry enables affordable housing, reliable infrastructure, and effective, modern healthcare technologies. It is the driving force behind everyday products like smartphones and computers. And it is essential to transformative products like electrical vehicles and solar panels which are driving the future.

Overregulation Weakens Global Competitiveness A surge in new restrictions and lack of coordination between the Biden Administration White House and its agencies is handicapping the chemical industry’s ability to create products. New proposed restrictions could limit access to and increase the cost of essential products, harming the U.S. economy, jeopardizing American competitiveness in the global market, and delaying progress for industries and sectors with urgent and growing needs. Americans value the chemical sector, and at least two-thirds of adults both nationally and across battleground states believe the chemical sector is essential to the Biden Administration’s priorities.

63%

of Americans see

69%

of Americans are

regulatory overload

concerned that

as harmful to the

additional restrictions

amount of goods

on the chemical sector

produced in the U.S.

could harm the cost of living.

ChemistryCreates.org

THE RIPON SOCIETY HONORARY CONGRESSIONAL ADVISORY BOARD U.S. Senators: Shelley Moore Capito – Senate Co-Chair Todd Young – Senate Co-Chair Marsha Blackburn Bill Cassidy, M.D. Susan M. Collins Steve Daines Joni Ernst Deb Fischer John Hoeven Jerry Moran Mike Rounds Thom Tillis Roger Wicker U.S. Representatives: Larry Bucshon, M.D. – House Co-Chair Frank Lucas – House Co-Chair Mike Kelly – Vice Chair Dan Newhouse – Vice Chair Ann Wagner – Vice Chair Mark Amodei Kelly Armstrong Don Bacon Troy Balderson Andy Barr Stephanie Bice Mike Bost Vern Buchanan Michael C. Burgess, M.D. Ken Calvert Mike Carey Buddy Carter Tom Cole John Curtis Tom Emmer Ron Estes Brian Fitzpatrick Randy Feenstra Andrew Garbarino Kay Granger Garret Graves Sam Graves French Hill Bill Huizenga Bill Johnson Dusty Johnson Dave Joyce John Joyce, M.D. Young Kim Darin LaHood Bob Latta Julia Letlow Nancy Mace Brian Mast Kevin McCarthy Michael McCaul Carol Miller John Moolenaar Blake Moore Jay Obernolte August Pfluger Guy Reschenthaler Cathy McMorris Rodgers Steve Scalise Adrian Smith Lloyd Smucker Pete Stauber Bryan Steil Glenn “GT” Thompson Mike Turner David Valadao Brad Wenstrup, D.P.M. Steve Womack

In this edition With the 2024 election less than 12 months away, the latest edition of The Ripon Forum examines what new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson can do to help GOP candidates on the campaign trail and the state of the race heading into next year. Leading our coverage is veteran strategist John Feehery. Feehery knows something about House Speakers because he used to work for one and spent almost two decades working for the GOP leadership on Capitol Hill. He draws on this experience in an essay in which he advises Speaker Johnson to approach the job with one goal in mind — to govern like its 1999. “In 1999, Congressional Republicans, facing daunting poll numbers after a failed (and unpopular) attempt to oust President Clinton through impeachment, decided to go positive,” Feehery writes in this latest edition. “The purpose of the effort was not necessarily to make new laws, but neither was it to mindlessly waste the time of the American people and their elected representatives. The purpose was to provide the voters with a stark contrast in governing philosophy between the two parties, but to do so in a respectful and diligent way. And of course, it was also to condition Republican lawmakers to the idea that the GOP was no longer going to be the party of ‘no.’ We were going to work to get solid accomplishments for the voters and do so in a way that would reflect conservative governing principles.” Respected pollsters David Winston and Myra Miller offer similar advice in another piece for the Forum. In an essay in which they examine the political environment heading into next year’s campaign, the pair argue that, no matter how unpopular the President and Democratic policies appear to be, Republicans must provide voters with an alternative if they are going to have the best chance to win. “The strongest positioning for Republicans will be around the economy,” Winston and Miller write. “This means not just criticizing Biden policies, with which there is clear dissatisfaction, but offering alternative solutions — what Republicans would do. Opportunities are there if Republicans can effectively take advantage of them.” According to Kyle Kondik, Republicans may need to take advantage of every opportunity they can take. Kondik is the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter. A longtime observer of American politics, he has looked at last month’s elections and concluded that the results do “not point to big problems” for the Democrats. That said, he acknowledges that “presidential elections are different than mid-terms or odd-numbered year elections, with much larger electorates and the party leaders themselves on the ballot.” Two Democratic leaders who may be eying presidential runs down the road are Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both are from California, and both once held public office in San Francisco, where Newsom once served as Mayor and Harris once served as District Attorney. According to California Republican Congressman Kevin Riley, their records both in the City by the Bay and statewide is one every American should be aware of in the event either or both runs for higher office. “While both Newsom and Harris played starring roles in San Francisco’s decline,” Kiley writes, “each has also had a significant hand in spreading the city’s radical politics beyond the peninsula. Newsom, the former Mayor, has taken the state further left than ever before, causing crime, homelessness, and unaffordability to increase dramatically during his governorship … Harris, as California Attorney General also helped spread the lawlessness of her home city statewide.” In other pieces for this latest edition, EJ Antoni of the Heritage Foundation takes a hard look at Bidenomics and says there are some things about it that every American should know. Oklahoma Congressman Frank Lucas, who serves as Chairman of the Science, Space, and Technology Committee, explains why it is important for America to maintain our advantage in quantum computing. With the 2024 race now officially underway, Forum Deputy Editor Caroline Banaszak writes about candidates to watch in the coming campaign and 15 Republicans we all may be hearing more about next year. James Wallner of the R Street Institute and former Congressman and Cabinet Secretary Dan Glickman square off in a debate over the electoral college and whether it should be preserved. And in our latest Ripon Profile, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis discusses what Republicans need to do to reclaim their majority in the Senate. As always, we hope you enjoy this latest edition of The Ripon Forum, and encourage you to contact us with any questions or comments you may have. Lou Zickar, Editor of The Ripon Forum louzickar@riponsociety.org RIPON FORUM December 2023

Politics & Perspective

Gavin & Kamala: Too Left Wing for the West Wing? by KEVIN KILEY

In recent months, it has become clear that is arguably America’s most liberal city, with California Governor Gavin Newsom is setting Republicans accounting for a scant 6 percent of himself up for a run at the White House – perhaps in registered voters. In local races, claims of being 2028, perhaps sooner. This is bound to be awkward a socialist are used in positive biographical ads, for another Californian, Vice President Kamala not negative attack ads. The last elected district Harris, who has already attorney was a former run for President once, staffer for Hugo who is currently a Chavez in Venezuela. heartbeat away from As successful the presidency, and who candidates in San Newsom himself says Francisco, Newsom is in “pole position” to and Harris catered succeed Joe Biden as their platforms to the Democrat standard a political culture bearer. far removed from Newsom and Harris, the mainstream of both products of San American life. Their Francisco politics, have policies and actions for decades managed as Mayor and District to choreograph their Attorney, in turn, parallel political careers pushed the outerto avoid a collision most reaches of course. They have run progressive politics. for different offices: In recent months, District Attorney, the effects of these Newsom and Harris, both products of Attorney General, have become San Francisco politics, have for decades policies Senator, and Vice impossible to deny. managed to choreograph their parallel President in her case; The decline of Harris Supervisor, Mayor, and Newsom’s political careers to avoid a collision Lieutenant Governor, mutual home city course ... Yet now, each holds an office and Governor in his. has accelerated, They have consistently leading the San where it would seem there’s only one supported each other’s Francisco Chronicle way up: to the Oval Office. campaigns and sung to editorialize it is each other’s praises. “on the verge of The alliance has helped collapse.” Businesses propel both up the political ladder. Yet now, each are closing in droves; downtown buildings sit holds an office where it would seem there’s only one vacant; homelessness, crime, squalor, and drug way up: to the Oval Office. use have reached jarring extremes that one does Whether a collision ultimately proves unavoidable not expect to encounter in America. Governor – whether it’s Harris, Newsom, or both that seeks the Newsom himself recently sent in the National presidency – American voters will soon be asked to Guard to try to restore order. And citizens are nationalize a brand of governance that originated in moving out even faster than they abandoned a distinctive political environment. San Francisco Detroit when the Motor City went bankrupt. One 4

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of the world’s most beautiful cities has become the Newsom’s Labor Secretary throughout the COVID-19 years. During her tenure, California’s unemployment most popular place in America to leave. While both Newsom and Harris played starring rate was the highest in the country, and her agency roles in San Francisco’s decline, each has also had a was responsible for losing a staggering $31 billion to significant hand in spreading the city’s radical politics unemployment fraud. She was also the lead enforcer beyond the peninsula. Newsom, the former Mayor, has of AB 5, a bill signed by Newsom that effectively taken the state further left than ever before, causing outlawed independent contracting. When Biden crime, homelessness, and unaffordability to increase nevertheless nominated Su for his Cabinet, the dramatically during his governorship. And California’s Democrat-led Senate refused to confirm her. Yet the President installed century-long trajectory her at the Department of population growth of Labor anyway, reversed sharply after making her a permanent Newsom took office; “Acting” Secretary. the state now has the Harris made this end-run highest outmigration around the Constitution rate in the country. blatant when she said Harris, as California of the unconfirmed Attorney General, Su: “I’ll call her also helped spread the ‘Labor Secretary.’ I’m lawlessness of her home not going to call her city statewide. She was ‘Acting.’” an early supporter of This is why, should Proposition 47, which Newsom or Harris effectively legalized A Homeless encampment is seen on a sidewalk in become the Democrat petty theft and open San Francisco on September 2, 2023. nominee, any attempt drug use. to distance themselves Yet the spillover from San Francisco will is increasingly not just While both Newsom and Harris be disingenuous. The from San Francisco played starring roles in San city’s extreme politics to California. It is have stayed with them from California to the Francisco’s decline, each has also along each rung of the rest of the country. had a significant hand in spreading political ladder. While When President Biden Newsom likes to say took office, Newsom the city’s radical politics beyond California provides a declared that the “new the peninsula. “model for the nation,” Administration is using the total collapse of his CA’s progressivism as their roadmap to success.” And indeed, Vice President home city is providing just the opposite: a warning Harris has used her influence to give California to the nation about what is in store if he or his fellow Californian is given the chance to policies and personnel an outsize role in the Biden lead it. RF Administration. Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Kevin Kiley represents the 3rd Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, and OSHA Director District of California in the U.S. Douglas Parker are all Californians who joined Harris House of Representatives. Elected in in high-ranking Administration roles. 2022, he previously served six years Julie Su is a particularly revealing example. A in the California State Assembly. close ally of both Newsom and Harris, she served as

“Ideas that matter, since 1965.“

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Bidenomics Defined: What Every Voter Should Know by EJ ANTONI Are you better off than you were four years ago? demonstrably poorer. President Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans Unable to make ends meet, a record number of that question in a debate with President Jimmy Carter, Americans have resorted to getting a second or third and Americans overwhelmingly answered “NO!” If jobs. That’s also making the employment statistics look the same question were asked today, you’d get the same better than they are by increasing the number of payrolls response, because President Joe without increasing the number of Biden’s policies have devastated people employed. But even this Americans’ finances. isn’t enough for many Americans, From his first hours in office, who have depleted their savings and Biden has waged a relentless war gone deeply into debt to keep the against American energy, canceling lights on. pipelines, leases, and permits, Credit-card debt is at a record while throwing up countless $1.1 trillion, and 25 percent of regulatory barriers. That has greatly Americans haven’t paid off the increased the cost of energy, which debt they acquired from Christmas has increased costs throughout the shopping — in 2022. economy. But Biden’s spending To bring down the stratospheric agenda has been just as harmful, inflation rates it helped cause, the perhaps more so. Fed has embarked on a belated If Biden had simply done series of interest rate increases nothing upon taking office and which has imposed significantly EJ Antoni allowed the one-time emergency higher borrowing costs on American spending from Covid to expire, it families and businesses alike. would’ve balanced the budget by That means not only are people Compared to when now. Instead, he has constantly in a record amount of credit-card Biden took office, pushed for more spending and has debt, but the interest rates on those institutionalized multi-trillioncredit cards are at a record high. Americans are paying dollar annual deficits. This combination of both 20 percent more for food To pay for this runaway prices and interest rates rising has spending spree, the Federal Reserve and 38 percent more for completely frozen the housing created trillions of dollars out of market. The monthly mortgage gasoline. It also costs nothing, which quickly devalued payment on a median price home 28 percent more to keep the currency in less than three has doubled under the Biden years as inflation hit 40-year-highs. Administration. It costs a family your home warm this So, though many Americans earn an extra $12,000 per year for the winter. more today, their larger paychecks same house. Unless your income buy them less. For 28 of the last has doubled in less than three years, 32 months, inflation has outpaced the growth of average a house probably isn’t affordable for you. This is nothing weekly earnings. short of a cost-of-living crisis. This has devasted American families. Compared to For the typical American family, the combination of when Biden took office, they’re paying 20 percent more falling real earnings and higher borrowing costs has been for food and 38 percent more for gasoline. It also costs 28 the equivalent losing $6,800 in annual income. percent more to keep your home warm this winter. And But official inflation metrics don’t account for many these are the Biden administration’s own figures. People are regulatory costs that are imposed by the government, and 6

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those costs have exploded under Biden even faster than Congress and the White House need to cut federal spending. they did under President Barack Obama. That will help reduce both inflation and interest rates, Just two years of regulatory rulemaking under Biden bringing much needed relief to American families. have cost the average American household about $9,600, Second, the next president needs to roll back the compared to about $8,300 burdensome overregulation for the same time under of the Biden administration, Obama. Conversely, which will further reduce Just two years of regulatory regulatory costs went down costs while encouraging rulemaking under Biden have cost economic growth, job $11,000 for the average American household over creation, and real wage the average American household the four years of Donald growth. Ending the Biden about $9,600 … Conversely, Trump’s presidency. Administration’s war on That means on the regulatory costs went down American energy will have regulatory front alone, just $11,000 for the average household the exact same effects. two years of Biden have America’s economic over the four years of Donald wiped out most of the gains decline is not foreordained. the average household It can be reversed if our Trump’s presidency. accrued during the previous leaders have the political four years. will to do it. Americans Clearly, the failed policies of the last three years have should keep in mind that Biden clearly has no intention of hurt Americans, and it is particularly bitter that these have reversing our decline, but accelerating it. RF all been self-inflicted wounds. Fortunately, the terrible effects of these policies will be reversed if we simply EJ Antoni is a public finance economist at the Heritage reverse the policies themselves. Foundation and a senior fellow at the Committee to What, precisely, does that look like? First and foremost, Unleash Prosperity.

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America’s Quantum Leadership by FRANK LUCAS In the race to keep America at the forefront resource optimization, and military applications to of scientific, technological, and economic revolutionary developments in healthcare, finance, competitiveness, maintaining our U.S. advantage agriculture, and more, the power of quantum science in quantum science, engineering, and technology is could soon touch nearly every facet of our lives. of critical importance. Breakthroughs in quantum And these are just the applications we know of. With technologies are changing the world as we know further development and maturation, the untapped it, and unless we potential looks to be continue to strengthen limitless -- who knows our domestic quantum what doors our quantum industry, adversaries abilities will open? like China and Russia But with this progress will dominate the comes concerns of sector and shape the malign actors using the infrastructure that technology in harmful will carry the 21 st ways. That’s why it’s century’s technological crucial that we secure landscape, leaving us our leadership in this vulnerable for decades space and outpace our to come. adversaries who are hot Q u a n t u m on our heels. computing utilizes the As we look at properties of atomic our competition, behavior to process Chairman Lucas stands beside a quantum computer in China and Russia are the Science Committee’s hearing room in 2018. information in unique making significant ways and faster than investments to bolster traditional computers. their development of Unlike classical quantum systems. The computers, which can Chinese Communist Breakthroughs in quantum only store information Party is spending over technologies are changing the world in binary code of 1 and $15 billion to advance 0, quantum computers as we know it, and unless we continue quantum research and can handle complex development activities, to strengthen our domestic quantum data and a multitude of and Russia recently industry, adversaries like China and variables by analyzing established its own information in various National Quantum Russia will dominate the sector. states of existence at Laboratory with plans the same time. The to reach a 100-qubit process is complex, but the outcome is information quantum computer by 2024. Russian agents were even processing speeds and techniques that allows us recently caught and charged in New York for trying to tackle problems that were previously thought to steal and export U.S. quantum secrets, because our impossible, revolutionizing our relationship with adversaries recognize we are leading the pack. These technology as we know it. are cautionary signs that we cannot back down on our With this power, the widespread benefits quantum commitments here at home. With the power of quantum computing cannot be overstated. this technology brings, our adversaries could easily From advances in chemistry, materials science, weaponize quantum capabilities to crack encryption 8

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codes or breach our digital defenses, potentially partnerships with U.S. allies, the establishment of accessing sensitive information from our military, new quantum centers at the National Institute of businesses, research, and beyond. Standards and Technology to advance research in These concerns have not fallen on deaf ears, as quantum sensing, measurement, and engineering, Congress has already made strategic investments to and the build out of workforce pipelines between our gain leadership in the quantum field. In 2018, the educational institutions and the quantum sector. The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, bill authorizes the creation of new quantum foundries which I am now proud to Chair, passed the and testbeds to provide a space for industry, academia, groundbreaking National and government to come Quantum Initiative together to overcome Act (NQIA), the first cross-cutting challenges piece of legislation that will enable dedicated to accelerating quantum technology. our domestic quantum It also authorizes abilities. quantum R&D activities Over the last five at NASA, an agency years, funding from whose strength in the NQIA and quantum groundbreaking industry has advanced science and technology quantum research, development will no development, and doubt bolster our lead technology here in in the global quantum the United States, and race. has already become Looking ahead, the transformative. Agencies road to quantum success including the National will not be easy. Whether Institute of Standards and it is computing, sensing, Technology, National communications, or The Chinese Communist Party Science Foundation, and cryptography, quantum is spending over $15 billion to Department of Energy technologies face many have all utilized the scientific unknowns. advance quantum research and legislation’s funding However, we do know development activities, and Russia to build out state-ofthat this technological the-art labs, conduct recently established its own National shift is going to be groundbreaking revolutionary, and the Quantum Laboratory. research, and develop leader in these fields robust industry will have the ability to partnerships. The NQIA leverage the power of has spurred major U.S. technology companies to quantum for better or for worse. invest in quantum research, collaborate with partners As the U.S. stands, we are in the right position across the public and private sectors, and share to lead and ensure this powerful tool is used in resources and expertise. This has strengthened our accordance with our democratic values. We have efforts and global leadership even more. made meaningful headway from the efforts of the The progress we have made with the NQIA is a NQIA and will leverage this progress to keep the step in the right direction, but we can’t stop here. I momentum going with the Reauthorization Act. recently introduced the National Quantum Initiative This is an all-hands-on deck effort by government, Reauthorization Act, bipartisan legislation that will the private sector, academia and beyond, and I am build upon the successes of the NQIA and cultivate and confident the work we do together will preserve enhance our quantum ecosystem. The bill continues America’s global leadership in quantum science over support for basic research, but it also looks to how the coming generations. RF we can advance translational research and move quantum applications forward. On top of expanding Frank Lucas represents the 3rd District of Oklahoma support for current quantum centers at the National in the U.S. House of Representatives. He serves as Science Foundation and Department of Energy, the Chairman of the Committee on Science, Space, and bill includes new efforts to develop international Technology RIPON FORUM December 2023

Cover Story

Advice for the New House Speaker:

GOVERN LIKE IT’S 1999 by JOHN FEEHERY

In 1999, Congressional Republicans, facing daunting poll numbers after a failed (and unpopular) attempt to oust President Clinton through impeachment, decided to go positive. Newly-elected Speaker of the House Denny Hastert and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott coordinated to launch a four-point agenda to “Secure America’s future.” They promised to protect Social Security from rapacious spending by the Clinton Administration (the term lock-box popularized 10

by Al Gore actually started with Congressional Republicans.) They also promised to pursue an aggressive agenda to improve the nation’s schools with testing requirements tied to more federal funding. They promised to grow the economy with pro-business and pro-family tax cuts (abolishing the marriage penalty and death tax became very popular in 1999 and 2000). And finally, they promised to strengthen national defense, which Clinton had pared back in

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Services Act to PNTR (permanent normal trade the post-Cold War peace dividend era. This four-point agenda was simple. It resonated relations) for China — was negotiated by both sides, with voters. It gave the House and Senate something passed and signed into law by the President. And to work on together (which was a rarity back then Hastert was able to do all of this with the same and almost unheard of now). It also allowed the numbers that Mike Johnson has today. Here’s the point — having an agenda Republicans to talk about something else -- anything else -- other than impeachment. It provided some matters. Making the most of your time in the proof that the GOP could offer something of a majority gives the voters a reason to keep you governing philosophy that didn’t repel a wide swath there. It is vitally important the House and the of the country. It repaired the tattered brand of Senate work together to achieve that agenda. If one body goes off and does its own the Republican Party. And it thing, it does the members no helped to prepare the country for good. The voters don’t care the compassionate conservative about politics. They care about agenda of George W. Bush. results. On each of these items Here is my advice to the and others, including a plan new Speaker — come up with to modernize the Medicare a simple agenda that resonates program with a prescription with voters. In 1999, we called drug benefit, House and Senate it Securing America’s Future, Republicans made substantial but this is a different time progress, holding hearings, and the stakes are completely introducing legislation, different. I would call it considering some of the bills the Protecting the American on the House and Senate floors, People agenda. Protect them even getting a few to President from Biden inflation. Protect Clinton’s desk (where he vetoed them from mindless crime. them). The purpose of the effort Protect them from fentanyl. was not necessarily to make Protect them from stupid new laws, but neither was it to John Feehery regulations. Protect them from mindlessly waste the time of the nanny state. Protect their the American people and their elected representatives. The In 1999, Congressional freedom, their pocketbooks, and their families. And then purpose was to provide the Republicans, facing convince your colleagues in the voters with a stark contrast in daunting poll numbers Senate that it is better to work governing philosophy between together on a positive agenda the two parties, but to do so after a failed (and than it is to work separately on in a respectful and diligent unpopular) attempt to no agenda. way. And of course, it was oust President Clinton Elements of that agenda also to condition Republican lawmakers to the idea that the through impeachment, might not get signed into law by President Biden, but I betcha GOP was no longer going to decided to go that President Trump, DeSantis, be the party of “no.” We were positive. or Haley would be happy to going to work to get solid sign legislation that protects accomplishments for the voters the American people from the and do so in a way that would worst excesses of the Biden years. reflect conservative governing principles. We did in 1999. You can do it in 2024. RF Over the last two years of the Clinton Administration, Hastert and Lott found a way to make compromises and bring the country together, John Feehery is Partner of EFB Advocacy, a boutique which didn’t seem possible after the bitterness of the lobbying and strategic advocacy firm on Capitol Hill. impeachment fiasco. The government didn’t shut A former aide for the House Republican leadership, down, not even once. Most of the spending bills he was the longest-serving top spokesman to a were done in regular order. Important bipartisan Speaker of the House in the history of the House of legislation that helped to create the world we live Representatives. He also serves as a member of The in today — from the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Ripon Forum’s editorial board. RIPON FORUM December 2023

State of the Race

Where the candidates stand, and the issues that will matter next year by DAVID WINSTON & MYRA MILLER The 2024 campaign is heating up, with many polls 34-60, and Democrats at 41-53. Among independents, showing President Biden in trouble. Democrats are wor- unfavorables for both parties are over 60 percent (23-68 ried but say they have time to turn things around. The for Congressional Republicans, 29-61 for Congressional challenge for the White House is changing the dynamic Democrats). Forty-four percent of independents are unof the race to move numbers. So far, this has been unsuc- favorable to both. This environment has introduced the prospect of a cessful. Recent surveys show Republican candidates both third party ticket. From the 2020 exit polls, 26 percent of the electorate considered leading and trailing themselves conservative Biden, with many of Republican and 17 perthem within the marcent liberal Democrats, gin of error. An NBC with 57 percent being News poll showed everyone else. With the Trump leading Biden large percentage of the by 2 (46-44). However, electorate not affiliated The New York Times/ with the party bases, the Siena poll of six battlenumbers are there to ground states showed a construct such an effort. generic Republican canWe have not yet seen an didate winning all six effective effort to mobistates by double-digit lize enough voters into a margins, and Trump third party, as this would winning the cumulative David Winston Myra Miller have to be based on an six states by four points, issue or policy direction DeSantis winning by 1, rather than on personaliand Haley by 8. Of the One of the important dynamics for ties alone. Republican field, Nikki 2024 is that if the current primary We are frequently Haley has been unique frontrunners, Biden and Trump, have a asked to make predicin that more than one tions about who will win survey has shown her rematch, both would go into the camnext year. Rather than appealing to indepenpaign with negative brand images. predicting who will win, dents. In the cumulative there are two criteria we states, she led among inbelieve will determine dependents by 15, with the winner in 2024. DeSantis winning by 2, and Trump by 1. First: who has an effective strategy for indepenOne of the important dynamics for 2024 is that if the current primary frontrunners, Biden and Trump, have a dents? After winning independents for 10 consecutive elecrematch, both would go into the campaign with negative brand images. From our research for Winning the Issues tions when a Democrat occupied the White House, this (October 18-19, 1000 registered voters), Biden’s brand time, Republicans lost this group by 2. This happened image stands at 40-56 favorable-unfavorable, Trump at despite a remarkable party ID advantage for Repub37-60. Independents’ view of the two candidates is even licans (+3 R), the largest margin for Republicans in the history of exit polling. For a successful election next year, worse, at 33-60 for Biden at 32-65 for Trump. Voter dissatisfaction also extends to the two par- Republicans must address independents. Former President Trump won independents by 4 in ties. Brand images of Congressional Republicans are 12

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2016, and President Biden won them by 13 in 2020. The Independents who said the economy was not so good, last major party candidate to lose independents by a they voted for Democrats by a 29-point margin, 62-33. larger margin than Trump was Walter Mondale in 1984. While Republicans had an 11-point advantage on the Given the role this key group plays in determining electop issue for independents, they lost them by 2 points, tion outcomes, success with independents will be one a swing of 13 points. This was a missed opportunity for of the most critical challenges facing Republicans. Republicans, indicating that independents needed to Second, who wins hear a more substantive the economic narrative? economic message from The White House Republicans. Trump won independents by 4 in seems perplexed as to Abortion is a difficult 2016, and President Biden won them why Biden struggles on issue for many Republiby 13 in 2020. The last major party the economy. His ecocans. Its impact will vary nomic job approval is depending on the district candidate to lose independents by a underwater at 35-57, and candidate position, larger margin than Trump was Walter and it is unclear how this with his economic policies seen as incorrect (51 will play in context of Mondale in 1984. percent) rather than corother issues. However, rect (30 percent). the strongest positioning Our research shows Republicans hold sizable adfor Republicans will be around the economy, a Repubvantages on the economy (+10) and inflation (+12). lican strength and a weakness for President Biden. This But as we saw in 2022, Republican leads on economic means not just criticizing Biden policies, with which issues don’t automatically translate into votes for Rethere is clear dissatisfaction, but offering alternative sopublicans. In the 2022 Edison exit poll, independents lutions — what Republicans would do. Opportunities identified inflation as their top issue, and 79 percent of are there if Republicans can effectively take advantage independents thought the economy was not so good or of them. RF poor. Republicans had a clear advantage as indepenDavid Winston is the President of The Winston Group, a dents preferred Republicans to handle inflation by an Washington, D.C., strategic planning and survey research 11-point margin, 52-41. But among the 41 percent of firm. Myra Miller is the firm’s Co-Founder.

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The Elections Last Month & the Lessons for the Coming Year by KYLE KONDIK The month of November featured contradictory electoral that those two latter elections came after the Supreme Court’s signs. momentous Dobbs decision, which removed the robust On the one hand, President Joe Biden’s position curdled federal protections for abortion rights that the previous Roe in public opinion polling – his approval rating was a little decision had guaranteed a half century earlier. Abortion below 40 percent in national polling, per the FiveThirtyEight rights has not been a silver bullet for Democrats in every polling average, and he trailed former President Donald election, but their position is pretty obviously closer to where Trump in several prominent national polls. the median voter is on the issue than the Republican position, Included in the cross-tabs of some of these surveys were and Democrats have been able to worrying signs for the president, use the abortion issue effectively such as weakness among young in a variety of different places, and nonwhite voters, two key even in a conservative state like pillars of the Democratic coalition Kentucky. – although it is worth noting that Of course, presidential general election polling this far out elections are different than midfrom a presidential election is an terms or odd-numbered year unreliable indicator of the actual elections, with much larger results the following November. electorates and the party leaders On the other hand, the election themselves on the ballot. results in November did not point With the primary season to big problems for Democrats. looming, there is an odd dynamic While Republicans flipped the – scores of Americans dread open Louisiana governorship in the prospect of a 2020 rematch, an October election, Democrats and both Biden and Trump have performed well in a pair of other favorability ratings hovering red state governorships, re-electing only around 40 percent, with Kyle Kondik Governor Andy Beshear in unfavorability around 55 percent, Kentucky and coming within a few meaning that a sizable share points of unseating Governor Tate of voters have a negative view The election results Reeves in Mississippi. Democrats of both candidates. Yet despite in November did not point also narrowly won both chambers these problems for both Biden of the closely-watched state and Trump, neither appear to be to big problems for legislature in Virginia and held in much danger of losing their Democrats. an important open state Supreme respective nominating contests. In Court seat in Pennsylvania, one fact, there is an outside possibility of the handful of most important that neither will lose even a single nominating contest, states in the Electoral College. a combined sweep by the two major party candidates that Biden’s approval rating has been weak for more than would be unprecedented in the modern era of presidential two years now, dating back to late summer 2021, when nominations (which dates back to the democratization of the his approval rating dipped below his disapproval rating in primary process in both parties in the 1970s). national tracking – a dip that coincided with the collapse of the Of the two, Trump still faces the more serious challenge Afghan government in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal. as a non-incumbent facing prominent challengers within A few months later, in November 2021, Republicans had his own party, but he remains well ahead in essentially a strong election, but the results were much more mixed every national and state-level poll, with his leading rivals – in 2022 and 2023, showing that Democrats could survive Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and former Governor and despite Biden’s troubles. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina – unable to A key difference between 2021 and 2022 and 2023 is consolidate the non-Trump vote. 14

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To borrow a Yogi Berra-ism, it gets late early in both party to a shared unpopularity that would be reminiscent of 2016’s nominating processes. After a handful of early state contests contest between Trump and Hillary Clinton, voters may be in January and February, delegate-rich Super Tuesday looms more open to third party options, just as they were in 2016, in early March, including both the mega-states of California when the total third party vote reached 6 percent of all votes and Texas. Nearly half of all the available delegates on both cast (that fell to about 2 percent in 2020). Third party candidates typically poll better than sides will be awarded by the end of those contests, with a they perform, meaning collection of other major that surveys likely will states (Florida, Illinois, overstate their eventual and Ohio, among others) Of course, presidential elections share of the vote, further voting just two weeks are different than mid-terms or impacting our ability later. to get a sense of the odd-numbered year elections, with Biden does not nature of the race appear to face an opponent much larger electorates and the party true between the major party capable of defeating him leaders themselves on the ballot. nominees. in his primary. Trump may We noted above the or may not end up facing contradictory electoral such an opponent, but if signs of late 2023. Next fall, the electoral picture may he is to face a stern challenge, whoever his top rival ends up remain hazy. RF being will have to demonstrate strength early on. Looming in the background, but likely moving to the foreground, are Trump’s myriad legal woes, although at this point that seems Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal like more of a general election issue than a primary election Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on campaigns one. Assuming Biden and Trump are the nominees, the and elections. Sign up for the Crystal Ball’s free mailing campaign could be more like 2016 than 2020. In addition list at centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

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July 2023

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Candidates to Watch in 2024

Fifteen Republicans who the country may be hearing more about in the coming year. by CAROLINE BANASZAK

Ten years ago at this time, Joni Ernst, Tom Emmer, and Elise Stefanik were candidates for Congress, relatively unknown on the national stage. Today, they are members of the U.S. House and Senate Republican Leadership. With the 2024 elections just around the corner, The Ripon Forum reached out to some of the leading strategists in the GOP today with a simple question -- when you look out across the country, who do you see as being some of the Republican rising stars that America will be reading and hearing more about in the coming year? The strategists included: Jason Thielman, who serves as Executive Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Chris Winkelman, who serves as Executive Director of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC); Parker Poling, who served as Executive Director of the NRCC during the 2020 election cycle; and, Dan Conston the President of the American Action Network and Congressional Leadership Fund. While there are clearly other Republicans who could and likely will be added to this list, below are 15 GOP candidates the country may be hearing more about in 2024:

Derrick Anderson (VA-07) – Anderson is running for the seat that opened up when Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger announced her candidacy for Governor of Virginia. An attorney and U.S. Army combat veteran who was a member of the Green Berets, Anderson served in the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President Trump. This is not his first time running for office. Anderson was a candidate for the same seat in the 2022 primary, finishing behind the winner, Yesli Vega. Conston believes the name ID he earned in that race, combined with his military experience, makes him a candidate to watch in 2024. “He’s a developed, sound, and thoughtful conservative,” Conston stated. “We’re very excited about Derrick in Virginia.” Tom Barrett (MI-07) – Tom Barrett may ring a bell for Michiganders. Like Derrick Anderson, he was also a candidate for this same seat two years ago. While he won his primary, he would go on to lose to Elissa Slotkin in a campaign where Slotkin outspent him by roughly $8 million. It was the most costly congressional election in the country and an incredibly close race. Now, with Slotkin running for the 16

Senate, Barrett has a chance to turn the Lansing-area seat red. Like Anderson, Barrett is also U.S. Army combat veteran, serving in uniform for 22 years. He served in the Iraq War, Guantanamo Bay, Kuwait, and the Korean DMZ, and logged in more than 1,000 hours flying some of the most advanced helicopters in the world. From 2014 to 2019, Barrett served in the Michigan House of Representatives. He then ran a successful state Senate campaign and was elected to the State Senate in 2019 where he continues to serve. His opponent next November is Democrat Curtis Hertel, who works as a lobbyist in Michigan’s state capital. “The contrast of Barrett serving our country as a helicopter pilot in the U.S. Army to Hertel serving himself as a swamp creature in Lansing is the perfect message to win this seat,” the NRCC’s Winkelman observed. Rob Bresnahan (PA-08) – Bresnahan is a new face to politics. He’s spent his life working for the electrical business started by his grandfather. He joined the business as CFO when he was 19 and helped steer it through the Great Recession of 2008. After taking over as CEO, he led an effort to invest in and grow the business, and it now employs more than 150 Pennsylvanians. Bresnahan is looking to unseat sixterm Democrat Matt Cartwright next year in a District that

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supported Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. “This Scranton-area seat needs a candidate with deep local roots and a compelling story,” Winkelman stated. “We’ve found that in Rob Bresnahan, a business owner with multi-generational ties to the community and whose family business helped rebuild his town. Now, he wants to take that same approach to rebuilding his community to Congress in a Trump seat held by Democrat Matt Cartwright.” Sam Brown (NV) – A graduate of West Point and recipient of the Purple Heart, Brown is running to replace first-term Democrat Jacky Rosen in the Senate next year. Like fellow combat veterans Derrick Anderson and Tom Barrett, this is Brown’s second go at running for Congress. He was a candidate in the 2022 GOP Senate primary, where he came in second behind former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who would go on to lose to Democrat Catherine Cortez Mastro in the November general election. Brown’s life and career has been shaped by his service in uniform. Four months into his deployment in Afghanistan, he was on a mission to provide support to another platoon that had been ambushed when a roadside bomb detonated under the fuel tank of his vehicle, leaving him drenched in diesel and covered in flames. He was medically retired from the military as a Captain, and spent three years in intense physical rehabilitation. He would go on to earn an MBA and launch a small business that provides emergency pharmaceutical support to veterans. “We’ve recruited more veteran candidates than any time in recent NRSC cycles,” Theilman noted. “When you consider that we are at or near an all-time low for the number of veterans serving in Congress, and you juxtapose that with the fact that we’re in the midst of two serious global conflicts with others on the horizon, having candidates who bring combat military experience is the type of leadership that I think is going to be all the more important next year.” Laurie Buckhout (NC-01) – Buckhout is another one of those veteran candidates. A retired Army Colonel and local business leader, she is aiming to replace first term Democrat Don Davis in the U.S. House. Buckhout served in the Army for 26 years. During her service, she received a number of awards and commendations, including the Bronze Star, Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Meritorious Service Medal (two awards), the Meritorious Service Medal (four awards), and several awards of Joint and Army Commendation and Achievement Medals Following her retirement from the military in 2010, she founded a strategic consulting and services

group specializing in electronic warfare and cyberspace operations, which grew to be valued at over $43 million in less than seven years. She sold the company in 2019 and sat on the Board of Directors for the next three years. With her decorated service in the military and her successful business career, Conston said that Buckhout “has the potential to be really a standout candidate.” Nancy Dahlstrom (AK-At Large) – Dahlstrom is currently the sitting Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. She is also, the NRCC’s Winkelman declared, “a popular incumbent and the perfect recruit to unite the Republican party and take out Mary Peltola.” Peltola, a freshman, won the state’s lone congressional seat in a special election last year following the passing of longtime Congressman Don Young, who had held the seat since 1974. Peltola defeated former Governor and 2008 GOP Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin to win the seat. Dahlstrom is a well-known and respected public figure in Alaska, having served in a number of elected and appointed positions over the past 20 years. Her announcement last month that she planned to challenge Peltola was widely perceived as a recruiting coup for Republicans, and something that put the GOP in a strong position to reclaim the seat. “We [Republicans] got one of the strongest, one of the best recruits in the whole country,” Conston told the Forum. Alison Esposito (NY-18) – Esposito is seeking to unseat first-term Democrat Pat Ryan. The daughter of a former police chief with the New York City Police Department, Esposito served nearly 25 years in the NYPD herself, rising to the rank of Deputy Inspector and Commanding Officer of the 70th Police Precinct. This is her second run for political office. In 2022, she ran unsuccessfully for Lieutenant Governor alongside then gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin. Still, when she announced her campaign against Ryan earlier this fall, she made clear how she defines her candidacy — and herself. “I’m not a career politician,” she said in a statement. “I am and always will be a cop.” According to Winkelman, her service in the NYPD will be one of the strengths and main selling points of her campaign. “Her compelling story of service to her community – putting her community ahead of herself – is a strong match for this seat,” he said. Conston agreed. “Democrats are very concerned about Alison’s candidacy and the potency that she brings to it,” he observed. “This is the Hudson Valley. This is the type of race where she could really make a huge difference and win.”

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Gabe Evans (CO-08) – Evans is running to oust first-term Democrat Yadira Caraveo in a seat that was created following the 2020 census. Another Republican recruit with stellar credentials in national defense and public safety, he spent 12 years serving in the Army and Colorado National Guard as a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter pilot and company commander. He would later spend a decade as a police officer in the city of Arvada, where, his official campaign biography states, “he witnessed, first-hand, the consequences of Colorado Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies.” The grandson of Mexican immigrants, he currently serves in the Colorado House of Representatives. He and his wife also own and operate a family farm. “I think [he] can be a real star,” Poling stated.

Gluesenkamp Perez in the general election, is also running again this year. Lewallen is a lawyer and mother of four who previously served as King County Prosecutor and now serves as a member of the Camas City Council. In her announcement earlier this fall, she said she planned to focus her campaign on homelessness, drug addiction, school safety, rising crime rates, and timber and economic issues. She also said her candidacy was spurred in part by the COVID-19 pandemic. “I saw the people and the values in the country I love just kind of falling apart and disintegrating, and I decided at that point I was going to do something about it,” the Columbian newspaper reported that Lewallen said.

Heidi Kasama (NV-03) – Kasama announced her plan this past August to challenge sophomore Democratic Congresswoman Susie Lee in a D+1 district. Currently serving her second term in the Nevada State Assembly, she started her professional career as a Certified Public Accountant. Kasama would later get her real estate license, and would go on to manage a real estate office with 230 agents. In 2018, she served as President of the Nevada Realtors. When she announced her candidacy this past summer, she said she planned to focus her candidacy on education, economic development, and public safety. “Today, we see more crime, higher living expenses, and uncontrolled health care costs,” Kasama stated. “Students are graduating with a lack of basic education and are unprepared to enter the workforce. There is a basic lack of accountability and personal responsibility. This is not the American way of life I grew up with. I will fight hard to change the direction of our country for the sake of my grandchildren and all Nevadans.”

Dave McCormick (PA) – McCormick is campaigning to replace third-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey on Capitol Hill. Like other candidates on this “to watch” list, McCormick has run before. In 2022, he was a candidate in the highly publicized race to succeed Republican Pat Toomey i n the Senate. McCormick squared off against TV talk show Doctor Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary. Oz was endorsed by Donald Trump and ultimately prevailed before losing to Democrat John Fetterman in the general election. McCormick was heavily recruited to make another run, and he announced his candidacy earlier this year. His resume is golden — West Point graduate, Bronze Star Recipient and Army Ranger who went on to lead a highly successful career in the private sector where he made millions and became financially set for life. After serving the George W. Bush Administration and on a number of boards in the years since, McCormick entered the political arena himself. When he announced his latest candidacy in September, he made clear this race was as much about the performance of the current administration as the current Senator he is seeking to replace. “Due to the failed leadership of Joe Biden,” McCormick declared, “America is in decline: economically, militarily, spiritually.”

Leslie Lewallen (WA-03) – Lewallen is looking to unseat firstterm Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in a district that was previously represented by Republican Jamie Herrara-Beutler for 12 years. HerraraBeutler was defeated in the 2023 GOP primary by Joe Kent, a retired Army Special Forces veteran and vocal supporter of Donald Trump who made Herrara-Beutler’s vote for Trump’s impeachment a key part of his successful primary campaign. Kent, who would go on to lose to

Craig Riedel (OH-09) – Riedel is running against Democrat Marcy Kaptur, the longest serving woman in the history of Congress and one of the most senior Members of the 118th Congress. Although Kaptur has held the seat since 1983, the current iteration of the 9th District of Ohio — it was redrawn before the 2022 election — leans just slightly in favor of the Republicans according to the Cook Report. She easily defeated Republican J.R. Majewski the last time around,

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in part due to Majewski’s connection to Q’Anon and the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. While Majewski recently announced he plans to run for the seat again, Kaptur’s main competition next year could come from Riedel, who was born in the area, educated at Ohio State, and spent 27 years working as a civil engineer in the steel industry and volunteering for local causes. For the past six years, he has served in the Ohio State House. Reidel ran for 9th District House seat in 2022, coming in a close second to Majewski in the primary. He is expected to perform even better this time around. “We feel like he really could be a standout candidate and that he ultimately will win,” said Conston. Tim Sheehy (MT) – Sheehy is looking to unseat third-term Democrat Jon Tester in the U.S. Senate. Another veteran recruited by Republicans to run for office next year, he is a retired Navy SEAL who earned multiple combat decorations, including the Bronze Star with Valor for Heroism in Combat and the Purple Heart. Following his military services, Sheehy founded and continues to run an aerospace company which currently employs over 200 Montanans. He and his wife have four young children. They make their home on a 20,000-acre cattle ranch, where they raise, feed, and process cattle to help develop America’s food supply chain. Sheehy is active in local charities, and serves as an active firefighting pilot who has completed hundreds of firefighting missions across the American west. Although he faces Montana Congressman Matt Rosendale in the Republican primary, the NRSC’s Theilman is optimistic about his prospects to win the GOP nomination and unseat Tester next year. “He has the charisma, the gravitas, and the grit to be someone that folks turn to both within the Senate and across the country to be a voice of reason and a voice of experience,” Theilman stated. “He also represents a youthful new generation of conservative leadership that I think America is pining for.” Joe Teirab (MN-02) – Teirab is running to replace third-term Democrat Angie Craig in the U.S. House. The son a Sudanese immigrant and grandson of a POW in World War II, he is another Republican candidate who served America in uniform, After graduating from Harvard Law School, he joined the Marines and deployed to Iraq in support of Operative Inherent Resolve, where

he supported efforts to defeat ISIS. After leaving military service, he served as an Assistant County Attorney, where he prosecuted drug crimes, violent crimes, domestic violence, and sexual assault. Most recently, he’s served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney, prosecuting large-scale narcotics trafficking and violent crime. Poling noted that American voters can expect to see a lot of prosecutors on the Republican ballot in 2024. In announcing his run for Congress earlier this fall, the former Marine and prosecutor said he planned to focus his candidacy on strengthening public safety and improving economic growth. “I’m running for Congress to fight for safer communities, to put an end to Bidenomics that has made life unaffordable for too many families, to get our debt and deficit under control and to ensure safety and prosperity for all Minnesotans,” Teirab said. Austin Theriault (ME02) – Seeking to oust secondterm Democrat Jared Golden, Theriault brings a unique resume to next year’s campaign — he is a former NASCAR driver who started racing at the local short track in Caribou, Maine and went on to compete at the highest level of the sport. After being injured in a crash at the Talladega Motor Speedway in 2019, he left racing and was elected to the State House of Representatives in 2022. When he announced his candidacy for Golden’s seat this past September, Theriault pointed to a number of challenges he planned to confront. “The working class is being priced out and attacked by people in government, who hold too much power and not enough common sense,” he said. “It’s time for relentless, energetic, and effective leadership for Maine at a national level.” In her conversation with the Forum, Poling praised Theriault’s unique resume and called him “a great candidate.” Conston also gave him high marks, and said he is well positioned to knock off the incumbent next year. “A NASCAR driver, state Representative, and businessman, Austin has a unique profile to appeal to this rural Maine district. By contrast, Jared Golden is an entrenched incumbent who we believe has made some recent mistakes a good candidate can exploit. In a presidential year in a Trump district, Austin is the right person to win this seat.” RF Caroline Banaszak is Deputy Editor of The Ripon Forum.

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Debate

Should the Electoral College be Preserved?

Yes, it Protects Against Tyranny by JAMES WALLNER The 2024 presidential election is about to begin. power to become tyrannical. The delegates understood Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, tyranny as “the accumulation of all powers, legislative, and South Carolina will be the first to decide who gets executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of to take on President Joe Biden in the general election. one, a few, or many.” To prevent tyranny, they divided the Polls presently indicate that the contest will be a government into three branches. The delegates reasoned rematch between Biden and former that doing so would make it harder President Donald Trump. for any one branch to amass all of The likelihood of a Bidenthe government’s power effectively. Trump matchup is driving many Preserving the Constitution’s Americans to support thirdseparation of powers requires that party candidates instead of the each branch of the government Democratic or Republican tickets. be independent. One way the The fractured field and the fact Constitution achieves this that Biden is trailing in several separation in practice is to ensure key states suggests that Trump that each branch has “as little agency could again prevail in the Electoral as possible in the appointment College while failing to win the of the members of the others.” national popular vote. This prospect Generally, “all the appointments for is likely to spark a debate over how the supreme executive, legislative, Americans elect the president of the and judiciary magistracies should James Wallner United States. be drawn from the same fountain Most Americans want to abolish of authority, the people.” There the Electoral College. According are, however, exceptions to this to a recent PEW Research Center Abolishing the Electoral general rule. The people can also survey, approximately two-thirds of be tyrannical. Making each branch College would be Americans favor using the national of government directly dependent a mistake. It helps popular vote to elect the president. on the popular will will eliminate That number is likely to grow in the any obstacle to the concentration make American selfevent of another Electoral College of power in their hands. The government work. popular vote split. And the fact that Constitution itself was ratified, in the Electoral College disadvantages large part, to solve the problems third-party candidates suggests that created by unchecked popular their supporters will be more likely power at the state level during the to back efforts to abolish it. 1780s. But abolishing the Electoral College would be a The people already elect the president indirectly. mistake. It helps make American self-government work. According to Rufus King, “It was with the people that The Constitution’s structure prevents a concentration the Constitution meant to place the election of the of power in any one branch of the federal government. Chief Magistrate.” The Constitution’s Electoral College Changing it to use the national popular vote to elect the Clause (Article II, section 2, clause 3) stipulates that president instead of the Electoral College allows for a electors from each state shall elect the president. And greater concentration of power in the executive branch. its Presidential Electors Clause (Article II, section 2, The delegates to the Federal Convention of 1787 clause 2) empowers each state to determine its process who wrote the Constitution wanted to empower the for selecting presidential electors. State legislatures federal government while ensuring it could not use its (cont’d on page 22) 20

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Should the Electoral College be Preserved?

No, it is Time to Bid Farewell to the Electoral College by DAN GLICKMAN In the intricate tapestry of American democracy, candidates engage with voters from all states, not the Electoral College, a mechanism devised to just the politically strategic ones. preserve the relative electoral power of smaller The 2020 election underscored the vulnerabilities states, now stands as an antiquated relic that inherent in the Electoral College, with attempts undermines the principles of fairness and equality. to manipulate the selection of electors casting a Originally implemented to shadow over the democratic ensure all states had a voice in the process. This historic anomaly, selection of the president, it has, rooted in a lack of trust in the over time, become a breeding people, no longer aligns with the ground for complications, chaos, values of a modern democracy. and potential fraud, ultimately The potential for manipulation diminishing the participatory erodes public trust and rights of citizens across the confidence in the democratic nation. process, threatening the very One of the glaring flaws in foundation of our system the current system is its tendency Critics may argue that to disenfranchise smaller states. dismantling the Electoral Take, for instance, my home state College jeopardizes the political of Kansas, with its six electoral power of smaller states. votes and historically Republican However, this safeguard is Dan Glickman leanings. Rarely do presidential already preserved in the United candidates grace the Sunflower States Senate, where the smallest State with their presence during state enjoys equal representation The Electoral College, general elections, especially as the largest. Reforming the a mechanism devised Democratic contenders. This presidential election process to preserve the relative pattern repeats in numerous doesn’t diminish the voices of smaller states, rendering their smaller states; it ensures that electoral power of citizens virtually invisible every citizen’s voice is heard smaller states, now in the electoral process. The and valued. Electoral College, designed to Admittedly, advocating for stands as an antiquated preserve equality, paradoxically the end of the Electoral College relic that undermines encourages candidates to focus will be politically challenging. the principles of solely on larger and swing states, Those invested in the status quo sidelining vast sections of the may resist change, citing the fairness and equality. country. complexity and nuances of the The very essence of the current system. Yet, the ultimate democratic principle, one person, goal should be to restore public one vote, is compromised by the disproportionate trust in government and political leadership. By influence of certain states. Every American should embracing a more direct and egalitarian approach to have an equal say in determining the nation’s leader. electing the president, we can forge a path toward Why should a citizen from Kansas be granted less a stronger, more resilient democracy that truly participatory rights than a citizen from Arizona, reflects the will of the people. Wisconsin, or Michigan? Abolishing the Electoral A transition away from the Electoral College College would level the playing field, ensuring (cont’d on next page) RIPON FORUM December 2023

(Glickman, cont’d) to reform a challenging one. However, the benefits of would not only empower citizens across all states a more democratic future far outweigh the comfort of but also encourage candidates to engage with the diverse an outdated status quo. The time for change is now. needs and perspectives of the entire nation. The current By embracing reform and discarding the Electoral system, with its College, we can focus on a select build a more By embracing a more direct and egalitarian few battleground resilient democracy states, perpetuates approach to electing the president, we that stands as a a divisive and testament to the can forge a path toward a stronger, more polarized political enduring power of resilient democracy that truly reflects the landscape. the people. RF Moving toward a will of the people. more inclusive and The Honorable representative Dan Glickman electoral process would incentivize candidates to served as the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture from address the concerns of all Americans, fostering a 1995 to 2001. Prior to becoming the secretary sense of national unity and shared purpose. of agriculture, Glickman represented the 4th In the face of this imperative for change, there Congressional District of Kansas for 18 years in the will undoubtedly be resistance. The intricate web of House of Representatives. political intricacies and vested interests makes the road

(Wallner, cont’d) president could have been wrong, or things may be different initially chose presidential electors. However, most today. Americans have amended the Constitution to make states adopted popular election of presidential electors it more democratic. For example, the 17th Amendment in the 1810s and 1820s. South Carolina was the last state abolished the direct election of senators and adopted popular to adopt the popular election of presidential electors in election instead. But doing so did not fundamentally alter 1868. the Senate’s ability to check the House. The Senate is In contrast, delegates to the Federal Convention structured differently than the House. And Congress isn’t explicitly rejected allowing the people to elect the president capable of unitary action like the president. Abolishing the directly. Charles Pinkney argued that “an Election by Electoral College, however, would change the structure of the people” was the presidency to liable “to the most make it easier for obvious & striking Delegates to the Federal Convention explicitly popularly elected objections.” presidents to rejected allowing the people to elect the Among them was concentrate power the possibility that president directly. in the executive “the most populace branch States” would Presidents combine “in favor of the same individual.” Pinkney warned may claim they have a popular mandate to implement their that this would make the president an elective monarch, agenda over the objections of Congress and the courts. But which he considered “the worst kind.” James Madison the fact remains that a majority of the Electoral College worried that a popularly elected president would be more elect’s presidents, not a majority of all Americans. likely to neglect smaller states’ interests or sacrifice them Abolishing the Electoral College in favor of the altogether. Popular majorities in the larger states could popular vote would strengthen a president’s claim to speak use the presidency to infringe on the rights of individuals for a majority of the American people. and minorities more easily in their states. To prevent this Free governments have fared poorly historically scenario, the Constitution limits the number of electors when challenged by a powerful - and popular - executive. each state can appoint “to the whole Number of Senators American self-government has survived because the and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in Constitution makes it harder to destroy it. RF the Congress.” To be fair, those opposed to the popular election of the James Wallner is a senior fellow at the R Street Institute. 22

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News & Events

Gonzales & Pfluger Push to Strengthen Security Along Southern Border WASHINGTON, DC – With a record the city a hot spot for migrant crossings. the rule of law is ignored. How do you number of migrants streaming across The city made national headlines in compel an administration, a president, America’s southern border, The Ripon September as the mayor declared a state to gather the political will and to be Society hosted a breakfast discussion of emergency after an unsustainable strong? That is a very tough problem on December 6th with U.S. Reps. number of migrants flooded the city. set.” Tony Gonzales (TX-23) and August Gonzales continued. Pfluger led a bipartisan delegation Pfluger (TX-11), who talked not only “I look at this through the lens of to Latin America this summer, and about how this crisis is impacting the solving the problem. We know what discussed the amount of fentanyl that people they represent back home, but the problem is. It’s clear that’s been is flooding into the country — fentanyl how it is impacting the that can be traced back to perception of America China. around the world. “The Chinese Gonzales and Communist Party is Pfluger, who are both using the cartel networks. military veterans, were They’re laundering both elected in 2020. money. It’s a very They currently serve sophisticated method on the Homeland of getting product into Security Committee, the United States that’s where Pfluger is Chair causing the deaths and of, and Gonzales serves the cartels are not stupid, on the Subcommittee and they’re using people on Counterterrorism, who are looking for a Law Enforcement better way of life, who and Intelligence. are trying to take care Gonzales, whose of their families. I can’t district spans roughly blame these people that “People don’t take us seriously around 800 miles and makes are looking at the United the world if we’re weak at home.” up about two-thirds States going, ‘we’re August Pfluger going there because of the Texas-Mexico border, also serves on Remarks to The Ripon Society that’s the opportunity.’ I the Subcommittee on cannot blame them at all, December 6, 2023 but there’s got to be an Border Security and Enforcement. orderly manner in which “The crisis turned on and it has identified. It’s tough to not say it’s not we do business. And that is completely not turned off, and that’s been tough,” a problem, because whether it’s the missing. Gonzales stated in his opening remarks. number of folks coming over illegally “I don’t think that this “I’ll give you an example. Yesterday I or whether it’s the amount of fentanyl administration is going to actually was speaking with the mayor of Eagle that’s killing everybody, there is not have the political will to re-implement Pass. ‘Hey, so how’s everything going, one city in the United States that’s not Remain in Mexico, the migrant Rolando?’ You can hear it in his voice, impacted by this. protection protocols that the last Pfluger, whose District neighbors administration put in place. But he goes, ‘You know what’s happening, the 23rd District of Texas, approached obviously, I will urge them to do that. Tony? It’s Groundhog Day here.’ “The conversation we had is the the issue from an international I know that Tony has done that as well. exact conversation I’ve had with him perspective. To me, this is about political will. It’s “People don’t take you seriously about compelling the administration maybe 20 times. It’s as bad as we’ve around the world if you’re weak at to take the steps to do what they have ever seen it.” Eagle Pass is home to the Camino home. And they certainly don’t take not done so far. And it’s causing a lot of Real Eagle Pass Port of Entry – making you seriously if there’s chaos, and if chaos in our country.” RF RIPON FORUM December 2023

Name: Thom Tillis Occupation: United States Senator for North Carolina Previous jobs held: I served as Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives for two terms; before that, I served two terms in the minority. I was the minority whip and led the campaign effort that gave Republicans a majority in the North Carolina General Assembly. Before serving in the North Carolina House of Representatives, I was PTA President at Hopewell High School, a Town Commissioner, and a Parks and Recreation Advisory Board Commissioner. In the private sector, I joined the tech industry at age 20, working in insurance. I moved to Boston to work for Wang Laboratories and then joined PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), where I was admitted to the partnership in six years. In 2009, I joined IBM Global Business Services, which PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) management consulting services acquired. If there was one thing you could tell your younger self today, what would it be and why? I’m a no-regrets kind of guy. Probably never purchase those really short shorts that were popular back in the late ’70s. I don’t know. What is one of your top legislative priorities and why? Securing our border and implementing comprehensive immigration reform remains one of my top legislative priorities. We must avoid the mistake of many Western industrialized nations that become so successful and focused on work that having families and the demographics to support the future are forgotten about. You can have the demographics necessary to support the future through immigration reform, but you can only have meaningful immigration reform through first securing our border. If you could have Congress solve one problem affecting North Carolina, what would it be? Immigration. North Carolina has a thriving economy, and through the efforts of Republican majorities in our state legislature, we have become one of the best places for businesses to invest. We desperately need resources that even our universities can’t provide. We have chronic shortages of engineers, doctors, and nurses, so our economic potential is not fully realized. We have both short-term and long-term needs in North Carolina for these workers. Demographers say that by 2100, we will start losing population, and we are about to hit the apex. We have time to fix it, but we will start experiencing problems long before we begin shrinking. We already see it in the chronic job shortages, even in states of high unemployment. That needs to be fixed for a thriving economy like North Carolina. Finally, what does the GOP Senate need to do in order to regain the Majority in 2024? We need to be a steady influence and understand the Senate is structured to force compromise. We need to be focused and steady to produce results for the American people. There’s a lot of childish behavior right now, and we can differentiate ourselves by being thoughtful, professional, and respectful.

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