A View from Macomb County, MI: Third in a Series
People Like the President’s Policies, but His Personality Gives Them Pause by DAVID A. DULIO & JOHN S. KLEMANSKI Heading into the 2020 presidential election, all eyes U.S. House and Senate have passed the United States– are on Michigan (as well as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the Trump and other states). Michigan, of course, was one of the administration’s replacement for NAFTA. In 2016, states that helped deliver Donald Trump his Electoral Trump hammered NAFTA during his appearances in College victory in 2016. At the time this was a Michigan and in his television advertising. Finally, after surprise since the state had not voted for a Republican some delays and court battles, the Trump administration presidential candidate since 1988. One of the key factors is reallocating some federal funding to the construction in Trump’s narrow victory of a wall on the southern in Michigan – he won the border. Each of these will state’s 16 electoral votes likely be fodder for his by 10,704 popular votes 2020 messaging. – was his performance Macomb County is in Macomb County. In fascinating politically for this county alone, Trump many reasons. First, it is garnered 35,000 more the home of the “Reagan votes than Mitt Romney Democrats,” who did in 2012. Now in 2020, helped Ronald Reagan there is little evidence to victories in 1980 and that Macomb County 1984. They also played voters have moved away a big part in Trump’s from their support of the 2016 victory. In short, president. In fact, they these voters are not as David A. Dulio John S. Klemanski may be more in his camp tied to partisanship when than ever. choosing candidates Part of Trump’s appeal as are many other Michigan as a whole, as well as in Macomb during 2016 Americans. In the 1980s, the Detroit metropolitan area was his focus on issues while they voted for including manufacturing Reagan, they also voted (which includes Macomb), has jobs, trade (specifically for Democrats in other seen an increase in manufacturing ending NAFTA and other contests those years. This bad trade deals), and dynamic, and others, has jobs since Trump took office. illegal immigration. He led Macomb County to can claim successes in be a bellwether in the each of these areas that are important to Macomb voters. state for the last 40 years. In the 22 presidential and These will likely be key parts of his 2020 messaging gubernatorial elections since 1976, Macomb has voted in Michigan. For instance, according to the Bureau of for the winning candidate statewide in every election Labor Statistics, Michigan as a whole, as well as the except three (1992, 2002, and 2004). Macomb County Detroit metropolitan area (which includes Macomb), seems to swing with the state, and seems to have a has seen an increase in manufacturing jobs since strong independent streak running through it. Trump took office, although some metrics have shown Recent polls by both EPIC-MRA and the Glengariff a slowdown or reversal in this growth (on the whole, Group in January 2020 show Trump’s Michigan approval however, growth is positive). In addition, both the ratings are around 40%, which is slightly higher than 16
RIPON FORUM February 2020
