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China's Looming Challenges
the past decade. And the new focus by Party leaders on the demographics of an aging China shows early signs of veering into a misguided pro-natalist strategy akin to that pursued by Ceausescu in Romania (and amounting to a 180-degree reversal of China’s former anti-natalist one-child policy), with similarly disastrous social results.
What does all this mean for America?
The 21st century is often framed as a kind of decadeslong Olympic contest between America and China for influence on the world stage.
But a far more important competition is playing out within each country, where both China and America are in a qualifying match against their own respective domestic demons – historical, political, and social.
And in the long-term, the most threatening thing for Beijing’s autocratic rulers is not the prospect of some freakishly cartoon-like version of Uncle Sam emerging victorious from America’s semi-finals – muttering vapid slogans about America first, undermining our own democratic institutions, tacking towards isolationism, and fanning the flames of ethnonationalism as an electoral tool to rile populist anger. Indeed, from the perspective of Beijing’s autocratic rulers – as well as those in Moscow and Tehran - that result is actually desirable. That weakens America at home, strengthens Xi’s hand in China, and divides us from our allies. Abandoning our own historic commitment to liberal
Demographically, China is democracy – whether on the right, the left, or both – in favor entering an era of rapid aging. of an increasingly narrowly The percentage of the population defined concept of “America” founded on blood, soil, and over 65 years old will surge, from ethnic identity – that is how roughly 12% now to around a the United States “loses” not third by mid-century. only the 21st century, but its own soul. China is on track to lose its own contest, against its own domestic demons, with tragic results. Will America as well? RF Carl Minzner is a Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Professor of Law at Fordham Law School. He is the author of End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise (Oxford University Press, 2018; paperback, 2019)
