Making Good Happen - Pathways to a Thriving Future review copy v1 5 by Robin Wood

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

WHY YOU SHOULD READ THIS BOOK In the next few decades we will not only reshape what it means to live "The Good Life"- we will also reinvent our global economy to create a thriving future for ourselves and life on earth. This is the story of what that journey involves, and how we can redesign our lives, communities, organisations and cities to deliver it. Each of us can make a difference doing whatever we do, wherever we are, right now. Making Good Happen is ultimately not just a technical problem to be solved, but an intensely personal journey that will help you become a better person. The desire to create a better world for our children and everyone else’s children is strong in many hundreds of millions of people around the world. This book will help you connect up with others who are making a difference and making a living by making a difference. It also helps us clarify our priorities: what kind of a legacy am I leaving in this world? Whatever you do in your life and work, and wherever you live and however you make a difference, you will find a universal toolkit that you can use on your journey into a flourishing future in these pages. This short yet powerful book is designed to help you put into practice the approaches and tools that help make good happen within the pathways to a thriving future for us all: six pathways and six capabilities that you will need to make good happen, and begin your journey to good now.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Robin Wood advises leaders and organisations worldwide on designing and delivering thriveable strategies. Over 4 decades he has worked with hundreds of Global 1000 clients and also created several commercial and socially innovative startups. He advises the Thriveable Investment Fund and focuses on developing leaders and boards capable of delivering thriving futures.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

Foreword KoAnn Vikoren Skryniarz - CEO/Founder of Sustainable Brands One of the joys of my work over the past decade has been engaging in spirited conversations with changes agents and business leaders around the world. It has been inspiring to engage with the explosion of people who are joining the Sustainable Brands community and others who are working to envision and bring forward a better future. These leaders – particularly those in the Sustainable Brands community, understand that in some senses, we’ve lost touch with what actually makes a “Good Life”, believe that business has a role to play in enabling a better future, and are demonstrating that taking the lead in this way is a path toward relevance and prosperity in the 21st century. This observation led us to an ambitious research project and co-creation initiative designed to document the change we sense, and help our community of brand leaders find ways to collaborate to help enable this new version of the Good Life that is, in fact emerging at scale. Conducted in April and May of 2017 in partnership with Harris Poll, our research of the general U.S. population surfaced the insight that in fact our idea of what makes a “good life” IS changing. We learned that ‘Money and Status’ and ‘Personal Achievement’ which had taken center stage for many of us around the world during the back half of the 20th century – is now taking a back seat to the hunger for ‘Balance and Simplicity’, along with ‘Deeper Connections’ to family, community and the planet. And the greater insight is that these issues of balance, simplicity and connection are now front and center for people across every demographic in the US, regardless of gender, generation or geography, political party or faith affiliation. Our results show that: •

78% of us now agree that money cannot buy happiness;

•

76% agree that the good life involves making a difference for others in the world;

•

83% agree that not everyone has equal access to the good life today; and

•

72% agree that if more people around the world did, there would be less conflict in the world.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Furthermore, 80% of the consumers we surveyed say they are loyal to brands that help them live the life they are in search of, and roughly 75% say they have taken some action with respect to their purchasing – either boycotted a brand, or purchased -- as a result of their perception of the role brands are playing in impacting our world. Given the confirmation we have seen through our research that the time is right to be talking about how to deliver this new vision of Good to the world, I was delighted to learn of Robin’s new book, Making Good Happen, especially as he tells me it was partially inspired by our 3 year initiative “Redefining, Redesigning and Delivering the Good Life”. In his book, Making Good Happen, change agents like those in our community are offered a strategic context and approach to innovating more effectively to redefine, redesign and deliver The Good Life. The “Good Cube” that integrates all of the chapters of this accessible, practical guide, pulls together three key dimensions for leaders who are seeking to develop and deliver new value propositions to market that better align with today’s emerging societal aspirations. Robin’s book will show you: •

WHAT pathways your activities are currently embedded in, and how those pathways are evolving and interweaving;

•

WHERE you are on the Journey to Good, including where you began and where you are headed next;

•

HOW you can develop the six capabilities needed to transform your organization into one that creatively shapes its stakeholders and markets to redefine, redesign and deliver The Good Life.

These topics are recurring themes amongst the members of the Sustainable Brands community globally, and perhaps an area where some of the greatest progress is being reported. I was delighted to find a strong resonance with our research throughout Robin’s book. For example, in Pathway One, Values and Visions, Robin focuses on helping us build social capital, that ethereal value which enables communities, organisations and societies to align their priorities in a changing context. For those who are successful at building social capital, there is a much greater chance of developing thriving, resilient cultures. On the other hand, the lack of trust which has now become endemic in many nations, organisations and societies (one of the features of low social capital), will make it much more difficult to overcome the rigidity traps that stand in the way of transformative change. As Robin puts it in his final chapter:

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future “Making Good Happen is ultimately not just a technical problem to be solved, but an intensely personal journey that will help you become a better person. The desire to create a better world for our children and their children and everyone else’s children is strong in many hundreds of millions of people around the world. This good energy is helping each of us connect up with others who are making a difference and making a living by making a difference. It also helps us clarify our priorities: what kind of a legacy I am leaving in this world? What will they write on my tombstone as my epitaph?” From where I sit, it is very clear that the younger generations now moving into positions of leadership want to live a life of authenticity, and of meaning – and this is becoming far more important to all of us than the things we may aspire to own. This poses a challenge and an opportunity for brands who wish to stay relevant in the future. Now that we have grown into a global community of change makers who understand not just the responsibility, but the opportunity embedded in re-infusing our businesses with sustainable purpose -- what’s needed next is for us to collectively tap into, and accelerate an emerging new vision for the “Good Life.” I heartily recommend “Making Good Happen” as a handy and accessible guide to help you along on that journey.

KoAnn Vikoren Skryniarz CEO/Founder of Sustainable Brands San Francisco August 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

© Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017-08-23 All rights reserved worldwide Illustrations for the Six Pathways by Kirstie Eloise Wood Diagrams and models by the author Other Books by Dr Robin Wood Synergise! 21st Century Leadership – 2017

A Leaders Guide to ThriveAbility – 2015 The Trouble with Paradise: A Humorous Enquiry Into the Puzzling Human Condition in the 21st Century - 2014

LifeShift 2020 – 2009 The Great Shift: Catalyzing the Second Renaissance - 2009

Managing Complexity: How Businesses can Adapt and Prosper in the Connected Economy – 2000

Visit the author’s amazon page for more details:

www.amazon.com/author/woodrobin

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

OVERVIEW “Making Good Happen” is my “nutcracker” book, because it not only sums up my previous seven books, but also cracks some of the hardest “nuts” (or “wicked problems”, as the cognoscenti like to call them), that we face in the this century as a species, in a small package. In particular, readers of my last two books “A Leader’s Guide to ThriveAbility” and “Synergise!” have asked for an accessible “layman’s guide” they can share with friends, family and colleagues. Well. Here it is! It’s also designed to fit easily into a large pocket or small bag, in comparison with the large A4, full colour formats of my previous two books, so it is easy to carry around and read anywhere, whether in softback or Kindle versions. An affordable, accessible introduction to the challenges and opportunities of our time, and what you can do with them and about them. Making Good Happen is ultimately not just a technical problem to be solved, but an intensely personal journey that will help you become a better person. The desire to create a better world for our children and their children and everyone else’s children is strong in many hundreds of millions of people around the world. This good energy is helping each of us connect up with others who are making a difference and making a living by making a difference. It also helps us clarify our priorities: what kind of a legacy am I leaving in this world? Whatever you do in your life and work, and wherever you live and however you make a difference, you will find a universal toolkit that you can use on your journey into a flourishing future inside the pages of this book. Use this as an antidote to all the bad news you hear every day, and remember that every single one of us on this planet can make a difference doing whatever we do, wherever we are, right now. Each one of us is a leader and creator in one way or another. You will have particular strengths, assets and experience that others can look up to and learn from. Equally, there are those in your family, community, city, organization and networks whom you can learn from and be inspired by too. So the most logical place to begin this journey is inside YOU, together with others that can be mutually supportive on that journey. Knowing where you and others are at when you begin your journey to good, offers valuable insights into the nature of the transition you are about to take, and what will motivate others specifically to want to support and join you on the journey. When we suggest that we can and should “Redefine the Good Life” and “Redesign the Good Life”, it is in a spirit of global fusion and diversity that can make life a © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future much richer experience by doing things in new, more thriveable, often simpler ways, rather than in the old ways which often negatively impact our environment and our societies, not to mention our families, friends and health. This book simplifies complex topics using three master frameworks: • • •

The fives stages on the Journey to Good; The six pathways to a thriving future; The six capabilities that ensure a successful journey.

Six Pathways to a Thriving Future show the way: 1. Values and Visions. 2. Human Development. 3. Thriveable Economies. 4. A Flourishing Biosphere. 5. Resilient Habitats. 6. Circular Manufacturing and Mobility, in an easy to understand way. The six pathways to a thriveable 2050 are related to each other in a causal sequence that generates the synergies we need for breakthrough innovations. Being able to harness the human energies and flows of ideas, aspirations and capabilities generated in Pathways One (Values and Visions- Social Capital) and Two (Human Development- Human Capital) in thriveable ways, requires the next generation of governance, economics and finance platforms in Pathway Three (Thriveable Economies- Financial Capital) to be able to embed True Future Value into the emerging global system. Connecting up pockets of the future in the present through the coalesced authority, power and influence of the innovators and visionaries emerging in our organisations and institutions enables rapid scaling and embedding of the most appropriate solutions wherever they “pop” into existence. This then provides the muscle and intelligence required to empower and accelerate the regeneration of our natural, infrastructure and manufactured capitals so as to create thriveable habitats for all the world’s people by 2050 through Pathways Four (A Flourishing Biosphere- Natural Capital), Five (Resilient HabitatsInfrastructure Capital) and Six (Circular Manufacturing and MobilityManufactured Capital). The “Future Glue” that integrates all six capitals into social and business models that lead to a regenerative, distributive world-system, comprises Relationship and Intellectual/knowledge Capitals. Through the trust we build through our networks of relationships, and the ideas and initiatives we co-generate, we make good happen and shift our world and ourselves into a more thriveable future through synergistic innovations. This combination of synergistic innovations and transitions is not entirely predictable in detail, but can be visualised in broad outline through scenarios and engaging with those stakeholders making it happen through approaches such as © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future participative narrative inquiries. The innovation pathways embedded into Pathways One through Six also provide a set of reasonably confident trajectories that enable longer term investments to be made with some degree of assurance, despite the swings and roundabouts of short and medium term fluctuations. The Six Capabilities unfold logically, starting with our ability to SEE (beyond horizons 1 and 2), to be able to FEEL (embodying our impulses toward goodness), to TOUCH (resonating and connecting with others and inspiring them to join us on the journey), to MEASURE (articulating more precisely how much goodness we are bringing into the world), to REINVENT (designing and delivering the initiatives and breakthroughs that bring this goodness alive) and SCALE (learning from what worked well and translating that into other contexts to produce more good outcomes). In order to move beyond incremental to synergistic and systemic innovation in most of our large organisations, cities and socio-economic systems, we need a better map and operating system for transformation. Making Good Happen provides you with both in an easy to read, practical way with exercises to test your knowledge and help you on your way. This short yet powerful book is designed to help you put into practice the approaches and tools that help make good happen within the pathways to a thriving future for us all: six pathways and six capabilities that you will need to make good happen, and begin your journey to good now. I wish you a pleasant and successful journey to goodness!

Dr Robin Lincoln Wood Perpignan, France, August 2017

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

CONTENTS FOREWORD

OVERVIEW

CONTENTS

REVIEWS OF OTHER BOOKS BY THE AUTHOR

CHAPTER ONE – HOW VALUABLE IS LIFE TO YOU?

MEGA-CHALLENGES AND MEGA-OPPORTUNITIES

MAKING GOOD HAPPEN

HOW CAN LIFE ON EARTH FLOURISH BY 2050?

AN OPERATING SYSTEM FOR TRANSFORMATION AND SYNERGISTIC INNOVATION

CHAPTER ONE – EXERCISES

CHAPTER TWO – SIX PATHWAYS TO A THRIVEABLE 2050

YOU CAN’T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT

PATHWAY ONE – VALUES AND VISIONS – SETTING PRIORITIES

PATHWAY TWO – HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

PATHWAY THREE – THRIVEABLE ECONOMIES

HOW CAN WE DESIGN AND DELIVER HEALTHY, THRIVEABLE GROWTH?

PATHWAY FOUR – A FLOURISHING BIOSPHERE

PATHWAY FIVE – RESILIENT HABITATS

PATHWAY SIX – CIRCULAR MANUFACTURING AND MOBILITY

90 107

CHAPTER TWO – EXERCISES

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future CHAPTER THREE – HOW TO MAKE GOOD HAPPEN

111

BASIC CONCEPTS OF MAKING STUFF HAPPEN IN A COMPLEX, UNPREDICTABLE WORLD

111

THE JOURNEY TO GOOD

114

MASTERING THE SIX CAPABILITIES THAT MAKE GOOD HAPPEN

118

A. SEE - CREATIVE IMAGINATION AND VISION

118

B. FEEL - A PASSION FOR BENEFICIAL CHANGE

122

C. TOUCH - MULTI-STAKEHOLDER COALITION BUILDING

126

D. MEASURE - CONTEXT BASED, MULTI-CAPITAL, SYNERGISTIC METRICS 133 E. REINVENT – STRATEGIC INNOVATION CAPABILITIES

139

F. SCALE- ORGANIZATION & LEADERSHIP

147

CHAPTER THREE – EXERCISES

151

CHAPTER THREE – FURTHER READING

153

CHAPTER FOUR – WHERE AND HOW TO BEGIN

155

LEADERSHIP AND CREATORSHIP

155

KNOWING WHERE YOU AND OTHERS ARE AT - STAGE DEVELOPMENT

156

MAKE A MAP OF YOUR JOURNEY

160

ON BEING A LEADER AND CREATOR

165

CHAPTER FOUR – EXERCISES

167

CHAPTER FOUR – FURTHER READING

171

APPENDIX A - THE SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM 173 ENDNOTES © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

175 12

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

Reviews of Other Books by the Author Synergise! 21st Century Leadership - 2017 “Every few years a book comes along that you know sits within a special group of books that provides thought-provoking insight into the waves of change taking place. Two of those were Alvin Toffler's Future Shock (1970) and The Third Wave (1980). Another is The Fourth Wave by Maynards and Mehrtens (1993)... That special group of books now has another added to it: A Leader's Guide to ThriveAbility...We are in a time when the 'fourth wave' is breaking through, a time of considerable change and uncertainty, and this is an excellent handbook for designing a positive and hopeful way through that wave.” Michael Gell A Leaders Guide to ThriveAbility - 2015 "It is a masterpiece with a new holistic theoretical framework that could support innovation and transformation in business and society.” Dr Michael Braungart - Co-Founder of Cradle to Cradle "The investment community and big business need "integrated thinking" at every level. This is central to delivering a sustainable, positive and regenerative role in the economy. It is also fundamental to capitalism's social license to operate. The ThriveAbility operating system is a serious first step toward that." Dr Steve Waygood - Chief Responsible Investment Officer at Aviva Investors “Amidst rising global expectations of what constitutes responsible business, incremental improvement must give way to a transformational approach to corporate valuation and value creation. In the future, the valuation of a company must accord parity to all forms of capital. The ThriveAbility Index, which embraces integrated decision-making and innovation, is a potentially major contribution toward closing the gap between contemporary practices and societal expectations.” Allen White - Co-Founder and Former CEO of GRI, (Global Reporting Initiative), Founder and Co-chair of GISR (Global Initiative for Sustainability Ratings) "ThriveAbility brilliantly captures what every leader, every business and every change-agent should embrace - a positive vision of how we can flourish as enterprises, as communities and as people. ThriveAbility is the opposite of denial; it is positive engagement with challenges and proactive creation of solutions." Dr Wayne Visser, Director of Kaleidoscope Futures and author of Sustainable Frontiers

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future “When Interface started its journey in 1994 to become a restorative enterprise, there was no handbook to help us find our way towards that outrageous goal. We think the “Leaders Guide to ThriveAbility” helps today’s leaders to climb their own Mount Sustainability, and support the thriving of their own employees and organisation, as well as the world.“ Geanne van Arkel, Head of Sustainable Development, Interface Benelux “I am excited about this book... A Leader’s Guide to ThriveAbility offers a sound roadmap to help us companies to learn how to ‘enhance the ThriveAbility of itself and all its stakeholders.” Deeply well researched and a remarkable synthesis of the front edge of our knowledge about ecosystems, and businesses’ impact on them, as well as about what it means to aspire to a world where we are each encouraged to be truly human and truly thriving, A Leader’s Guide to Sustainability joins my list of must reads for anyone entertaining the prospect of being involved with 21st century business – and that means everyone!” Koann Vikoren Skrzyniarz, Founder/CEO, Sustainable Life Media & Sustainable Brands The Trouble with Paradise: A Humorous Enquiry Into the Puzzling Human Condition in the 21st Century - 2014 “If human beings are going to actually make it through the 21st century – and not just surviving, but “thriving”- then an integral, a-perspectival approach is certainly starting to appear to be the only truly viable path forward. Robin Wood explores just such an option - take the following pages as an introduction to this “monumental leap in meaning” that does, indeed, appear to be the face of the future for all of us.” Ken Wilber “The Trouble with Paradise" is a "Guide for the Perplexed" in the twenty-first century reflecting modern concerns. He presents these with a lightness of touch which means that the book more than lives up to its promise as being “a humorous enquiry.” The book has more the style of a discussion with a friend over meal or drink than of a public lecture. Graham Mummery The Great Shift: Catalyzing the Second Renaissance - 2009 “As a life long champion of conscious evolution I see The Great Shift as a seminal contribution toward our ability to evolve consciously... Covering major themes of self, social and systematic evolution, “The Great Shift” is one of the most comprehensive coherent and strategic plans of action on all levels – this is the guidebook on how to make a whole system shift in our lifetime.” Barbara Marx Hubbard

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future “Dr. Robin Wood shows brilliantly… where the sweet spots are that allow us to change the fate of humanity. With a clarity that makes it easy to comprehend his arguments he shows that you have to engage on every level, be personal, local or global. Using the integral framework he shows how being and becoming in the 21st century can lead to a conscious evolution of our world, how we can put in place the solutions that are out there and how we can turn the wheel towards a thriving future instead of certain extinction we are facing due to the challenges in our century.” Jonothan Klodt Managing Complexity: How Businesses can Adapt and Prosper in the Connected Economy – 2000 Sunday Times Book of the Week and Director Magazine Book of the Month “A must read for those concerned with unfreezing the corporate mind and allowing it to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the new e-era” John Seely Brown – Former Director of Xerox Parc “Answers the prayer of all managers who desperately need a practical guide to how business can survive in the new economy” Napier Collins – Founder of Global Business Network “This is the dotcom bible.” Amazon reader review “Complexity science is the most powerful tool I've come across for fixing the mess we have made of management. Robin Wood's strong grasp of the science is evident throughout these pages, no less than his skill in applying it to the real world of strategy, creativity and leadership.” Amazon reader review “As a practicing manager this book is by far the most useful of the dozens of texts that have come out in the past few years. Instead of the grand principles of the scientists, or the jargon of the complexologists, Wood tells us how to use specific tools and techniques, as well as develop complexity thinking- as he says, complexity is at the same time a method, a mindset and a movement. There is plenty of meat here for everyone. Enjoy.” Amazon reader review

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

CHAPTER ONE – HOW VALUABLE IS LIFE TO YOU? I write this in 2017. In 33 years it will be 2050. 33 years. In 33 years I will be 94 years old, if I am lucky. How old will you be? By 2050 we will know, definitively, whether 90% of life on earth will be condemned to extinction, along with billions of human beings. By 2100, if we continue along our current business-as-usual and living-as-usual pathways, those of our descendants that are left on earth will be living on a completely different planet to the one you and I have been privileged to be a part of in the past century. Because you are reading this right now, I assume that you are not completely indifferent to the value of life and being alive. Seriously, though, it is important for you to think carefully about your answer to this next question: How valuable is life to you? Your life; the lives of those you love and care for; the people in your street, community, city and country; people all over the world; hundreds of millions of species, from the rainforests to the coral reefs to the savannahs to the depths of the ocean to the mountains and deserts; all thrumming in the web of life we are so intimately a part of. How much does that really matter to you? Because if you don’t care, you can put this book down right now and be a part of the greatest destruction of life ever witnessed on our planet in the shortest period of time, ever. Ever. The sixth mass extinction coming our way will make the first five mass extinctions look like a picnic in the park. I am not a tree-hugging environmentalist trying to scare you to save the pandas and the polar bears. Nor am I a scientist with a god-complex who looks down on people like you who may not understand all of the complexity of what is actually going on right now as the melting of the ice-caps accelerates and the levels of carbon dioxide rise to a point in our atmosphere from which it will be difficult if not impossible to return. I am simply someone who has been studying the future for most of his life, and now can see very clearly what our options are and what could happen if good people like you and I do nothing. This short book is my attempt to explain to you why being alive at this moment is one of the greatest privileges any human being could wish for. Let’s start by getting some of our facts straight about the situation we are in.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

Mega-Challenges and Mega-Opportunities Our earth and our oceans have warmed by about one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the past century due to warming caused by greenhouse gases, which trap heat inside the earth’s atmosphere, rather than letting the sun’s warming rays be reflected back into space. Our industrial activities have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years, a dangerously high level if we wish to preserve life on earth as we know it. In the process we’ve produced over three thousand billion tons of man-made carbon dioxide. Three. Thousand. Billion. Tons. We can only burn another 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2050 if we do not want to warm the planet by more than two degrees. That means that 80% of the reserves of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas we are burning now, need to stay in the ground. That is $22 trillion priced into the shares of fossil fuel companies that has to stay undergroundin other words, the shareholders of oil, gas and coal companies lose that $22 trillion, unless they sell their shares now. Have you noticed the weirder weather where you are and around the world recently? Warmer air holds more moisture – that means bigger storms, tornadoes and hurricanes. While some places are flooding more often, others are experiencing unprecedented droughts and wildfires. As the Arctic Ocean warms up faster than the rest of the planet, the stable weather patterns that kept all that cold air circling around the North Pole are now becoming highly unstable, resulting in heat waves and cold snaps at the strangest times in the strangest places. Even the Greenland ice cap and the South Pole ice caps are melting way faster than scientists predicted, and the oceans are rising slowly but steadily. One degree of warming is becoming unpleasant for most of us and also deadly for about 400 million people who are now without food or water, or being flooded out of their homes, or having their homes burned to the ground by wildfires or stripped bare by 400 km/hour hurricanes, or their countries disintegrate and be taken over by fundamentalist fanatics. That number will double or even triple by 2050 if our global leaders fail to deliver on their promises under the Paris Climate Accord to keep warming below two degrees. Just before you get the idea that this is a book about disasters and dystopia, read on. There may be mega-challenges ahead of us, but there are also megaopportunities. The speed at which renewable energies are replacing fossil fuels is incredible. It is completely feasible that renewable energies, electric, hybrid and hydrogen powered vehicles, and bio-fuelled aircraft could supply 100% of our

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future needs by 2050 for energy, electricity and mobility. We can dump fossil fuels faster than you or I might imagine. It is also absolutely possible to keep warming to below 1.5 degrees, which scientists believe would be the safest option for all life on our planet. Right now we are at the beginning of the sixth mass extinction of species, caused by global warming and pollution- one quarter of all species are now extinct, and half the remaining species face extinction by 2100. Two-thirds of our global fishing grounds are over-exploited, and half our coral reefs have died. We’ve lost half of the world’s rainforests, which cover only 2 percent of the total surface area of the Earth, but host half of the plants and animals on the earth and produce much of the oxygen we breathe. That sounds bleak- and it could be much bleaker. The reason I am writing this and you are reading this right now, is that we can both do something about this situation. The future of our species and much of life on earth is, literally, in our hands right now. In the next three years we can turn this around, and convert those challenges into opportunities, greater opportunities than any of us have seen in a lifetime. So what shall we do?

Making Good Happen One of the more popular refrains of those who seek to make the world a better place is: “Be the change you seek in the world”. Perhaps one should add: “And support and persuade yourself and others to be the change the world needs”. It turns out that installing energy efficient light bulbs and recycling and buying fair trade, local organic products, on their own, are actions that are not going to enable us to bring down global warming by much, if at all. Activism is one way of persuading others who are perceived to be doing harm, to stop doing that harm. For example, if just 100 companies produce 71% of the greenhouse gases currently causing global warming; half those companies have shareholders; activists know whom their shareholders are, and if those shareholders are persuaded to sell their shares in those companies, then it would no longer pay to burn fossil fuels. That would really help. Another example: activists monitoring rainforests are able to prove that large fast moving consumer goods companies are using palm oil from suppliers that are involved in slashing and burning rainforests, to make their soaps and ice-creams and thousands of other products. They are able to shame the senior executives of © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future those companies into trying harder to buy palm oil only from sustainable palm oil plantations. That helps a little too. There are literally millions of examples of good people making good things happen around the world, but you will not find them in the mainstream media. I have spent decades connecting with good people making good things happen, so my Facebook page is filled with half good news and half bad news every day. But I understand that for most people who consume mainstream media, that is not the case. No wonder so many people you and I know are depressed and cynical. Being depressed and cynical may be an appropriate reaction to the news that powerful interests who seek your compliance and inaction in the face of all this bad news are manipulating you. In fact, they are counting on it, given that making you feel bad means you are more likely to seek the “good life” by going shopping, and buying products and services you may not really need. While there is a rapidly growing number of people around the world who are actively seeking to make the world a better place, their impact and power is still not equal to the forces of corporate and political greed, or the predictable consequences of pumping ever increasing quantities of fossil fuels and plastics and bio-hazardous chemicals into our environment. Our global immune system may have woken up, but it still relies on the acts of brave, often heroic actions by a small number of highly committed activists. One of the advantages corporations, banks and politicians have is that they are fully connected and globalised. They really do have their act together, and know very precisely that they want, and then go and get it. A century of management science and motivational science have sharpened their capacity to do both great harm and great good. Business schools worldwide pump out graduates who believe that infinite economic growth is possible on a finite planet, and that financial and other markets really do take account of all variables, good and bad, in arriving at a price for everything. The problem with that story is that much of it is false. By ignoring the natural and social consequences of their behaviour, 90% if the world’s 80 000 corporations are doing more harm than good. And they are rewarded for doing so, because the people who own our world can make it so. Because economics and finance are not subjects most people are familiar with, “experts” easily dupe them. Many more sensitive people have decided that the solution is to do what they can locally, or to join an eco-village, or to support permaculture, transition towns and many other laudable local solutions. That is all well and good, but by itself will not get us where we need to be by 2050.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Changing the system from the outside is only a part of the solution. Changing the system from the inside could be even more powerful. The big question for most people who want to make good happen is: “How can I actually get close to a lever of power inside the system?”

How Can Life on Earth Flourish by 2050? As many noted scientists have pointed out, life on earth does not need humans to flourish, but humans definitely need life on earth to flourish to survive and thrive. In a four to six degree-warming scenario, it is quite possible that most if not all humans would approach near extinction, especially those living in the places most vulnerable to warming and oceans rising. That scenario is unfortunately going from being an extreme possibility in the distant future, to the probability that it will happen within the next century if we continue business as usual. It is worth remembering that all our ancestor species are now extinct. In the past few hundred thousand years, we have managed the extraordinary feat of growing from a population of a few hundred thousand hunter-gatherers, to the dominant top predator on earth. It is predicted that there will be 9+ billion humans on earth by 2050. Along with our billions of livestock, we now account for 99% of the weight of mammals on earth, compared with the 1% we represented a few hundred thousand years ago. For example, 1.5 billion cows account for more methane/greenhouse gas emissions than all the cars, trucks and planes put together. Scientists call the geological age we are living in the Anthropocene, because the marks we are leaving on and in the earth show this to be an age in which mankind modified the planet unalterably. Whether this story will end in tears or laughter is in our hands, right now. There are many brilliant solutions to our current crisis out there, but it is not easy to think systemically about those challenges and opportunities, which are intimately inter-related to each other. Instead of focusing on "problems" and "crises", we need to get people thinking more deeply about root-causes and systemic solutions to those root causes. The basic problem is that we are addicted to quick-fix, dramatic and memorable silver bullet solutions, which are simple and make us feel better immediately. "Save the rainforests", "Save the coral reefs", "Help the Syrian refugees"- etc. All Band-Aids for symptoms, not regenerative surgery for the deep wounds that cause these outcomes. There are no single, one-size fits all, silver bullet solutions, despite the claims of the many who would have you donate money to a worthy cause. We have created

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future the most complex global civilisation in history. In order to transform this global civilisation based on neo-liberal capitalism, it is generally agreed we have to transform capitalism itself. But how? In the past few decades I’ve written seven books on this topic, from a variety of different perspectives: middle and senior management, entrepreneurs, innovators, change agents, spiritual seekers, activists and from my own personal perspective. It is only now that I am able to answer that question with any authority, as I have integrated all of these perspectives into six pathways to a thriveable 2050. The key to this integration is the concept and practice of synergy in all aspects of our lives and work, within the boundaries of a safe and just operating space for humanity. In this century we will redefine, redesign and deliver the “good life” that we have taken for granted in previous centuries. The process has already begun, as hundreds of millions of people have begun experimenting creatively with different lifestyles, work styles and organisational designs. Everything we have taken for granted since the first Renaissance is up for grabshow we govern ourselves, what and how we manufacture and build the stuff of our civilisation, the role and mechanisms of finance, how and why we work, shop, travel, holiday and play. The fact that economic growth is fading gives us an opportunity to rethink our assumptions about what it means to be developed. Is development about living happy, fulfilling and peaceful lives or is it about accumulating money amid poverty, inequality, violence as well as social and environmental destruction? This requires us all to be much more imaginative, playful and open to new ideas and ways of doing things than ever before. And for the many who would resist change and maintain the “old ways”, we have a message: adapt or die. Luckily, as South Africans of all races discovered in the last part of the 20th century, adapting is by far the most fruitful of options, despite the current challenges that society faces after the glory years of Nelson Mandela and the rainbow nation. There is much good news we can celebrate: with transparency increasingly the foundation in corporate reporting, we are seeing unprecedented action. Some 300 companies, including Dell, Sony and Tesco, have committed to set emissions reduction targets in line with climate science. They are getting well ahead of the curve in preparing themselves for the changes ahead, setting out a clear pathway to future-proof growth and positioning themselves to capitalize on the opportunities that await. Companies are also driving a surge in demand for renewable energy, with 100 multinationals – including 30 Global Fortune 500 companies – now targeting © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 100% renewable electricity. Together, they are creating around 146 terawatt-hours (TWh) in demand for renewable electricity annually – enough to power Poland. Companies and cities are reaping the benefits of their action. Last year, 6000 companies reported cost savings of US$12.4 billion while reducing emissions equivalent to the size of France’s annual carbon footprint. And in a historic shift, the companies proving that revenue and emissions don’t have to go hand in hand were identified: the 62 companies that achieved this decoupling enjoyed an average 29% increase in revenues, compared to a fall of 6% for the others. As for cities, they have eyed more than 1,000 economic opportunities from climate action, with hundreds of cities looking to develop new industries and jobs linked to the green economy. For those of us already on this journey, our own challenge is how to keep it as simple and relevant as possible- not only for ourselves, but also to be able to enrol and inspire others to come on the journey too, wherever they may be. It is in this spirit, that I now offer you a map of the next 33 years, and how we can create a world in which all life thrives by 2050.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

An Operating System for Transformation and Synergistic Innovation “Leaps in making good happen seldom come about through trying to be less bad” In order to move beyond incremental to synergistic innovation in most of our large socio-economic systems, we need a better operating system for transformationshown below as four steps A through D in diagram 1. A. Current Initiatives - We already know that our current “initiatives” will not get us to a thriveable 2050 where all life on earth can thrive. Making good happen in incremental ways in communities, healthcare, education, employment, food, homes, cities, logistics and design is now one of the largest industries on earth, but much of it is dominated by self-serving foundations and NGO’s whose priority is to fund their own siloes of activity, often presented as “silver bullets” to weaponise their funding campaigns and “solve the world’s most pressing problems”. This almost guarantees incremental change, rather than breakthroughs, together with the risk-averse budgeting processes in most large corporations. Creative imagination and visions that synergise ideas, people and resources relevant to the often narrow missions inherent in the better world and corporate industries, which are needed to complement the passion for beneficial change that fuels those committed to making a better world possible. This implies an appreciative intensification of what people stuck in siloes are already doing, adding a rich pool of ideas, people and resources to their efforts, rather than serving as a distraction. In other words, it makes your day job easier and more fun, and delivers different but much more significant, thriveable results. B. Future Glue – Relationship and Knowledge Capitals - In order to build on and move beyond the current quagmire of competing initiatives, we need copious amounts of “future glue”. In order to transcend the usual endless campaigns to “save the planet/whales/rainforests/ support the social entrepreneurs/invest in less bad companies” conducted in armoured siloes, the making and mapping of new connections between such initiatives through locally empowered programs is key. Rather than “doing unto” we need to shift to a “transform with” approach to generate context-sensitive, synergistic innovations that are driven by local needs and possibilities. This involves embedding both relationship and knowledge capitals in local contexts to define the transitions that those local people are in, rather than a onesize-fits-all model beloved of NGO’s, charities and foundations. Every current “making good happen initiative” should incorporate an automatic review of their

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future capacity building, future glue activities to ensure that complementary initiatives are interwoven into the fabric of current initiatives and siloes. This creates an environment in which synergistic innovations become more likely, and also supplies the often rare resources needed to make all the difference. Being able to look across the six pathways and build multi-stakeholder coalitions that honour multi-capital synergies, and measure them, becomes the critical skill that enables us to get to a thriveable 2050 together. C. Desired Outcomes - Each of the six pathways involves a stream of related decisions that have an impact on one or more aspects of our lives and work. We call these areas of impact “Capitals”, to underline that every capital has the same priority and claim to be used wisely and regenerated. While financial capital has been elevated to the top priority in the neo-liberal economics of the past 40 years, the world is now valuing nature (natural capital), people (human capital), society (social capital), infrastructure that supports the common good (infrastructure capital) and sustainable manufactured goods (manufactured capital) as equally important as financial capital. The transitions delivered by synergistic initiatives need to be measured coherently, using a context/ science-based, multi-capital set of synergistic metrics. The minimum acceptable outcome should now be to ensure a safe and just operating space for humanity, as represented in Kate Raworth’s “Doughnut Economics”. Honouring environmental ceilings and social floors should be the starting point for strategies developed to deliver desirable outcomes. Thriveable new business models capable of delivering these synergistic innovations can then be designed to be robust and adaptive to local needs and specific kinds of transitions. In such contexts it is possible to “wire in” synergistic metrics that help the local systems in transformation navigate their journey toward their desired outcomes, while generating learnings and improvements in an agile and timely fashion. D. Pathway Drivers – Each of the six pathways to a thriveable 2050 has a unique driver that helps focus those on the journey. In Pathway One, Values and Visions, the primary focus is on building social capital, which enables communities, organisations and societies to align their priorities. There is a much greater chance that thriving, ethical cultures will both drive and emerge from contexts with growing social capital. On the other hand, the lack of trust which has now become endemic in many nations, organisations and societies (one of the features of low social capital), will make it much more difficult to overcome the rigidity traps that stand in the way of transformative change. In particular, Pathway One is where more thriveable definitions, designs

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future and initiatives of and for the “Good Life” will emerge and be articulated and shared. In Pathway Two, Human Development, the primary focus is on meeting the basic needs of all by 2050, by developing the human capital needed to transform communities, organisations and societies from within. Investments in transformations in healthcare, wellbeing, education, lifelong learning will be at the forefront of transitioning the currently dysfunctional systems in place to more sustainable, thriveable outcomes where future generations can look forward to healthy, fulfilling lives that do not cost the earth and other people’s wellbeing. In Pathway Three, Thriveable Economies, the key focus is on redesigning our economic and financial capital systems so that we can move beyond purely financial metrics of success such as return-on-investment/ economic value added at a project or organisational scale, and gross domestic product at a national and global scale. Healthy, thriveable growth that delivers true future value across all of the capitals in synergistic ways is the goal. Corporate, industry and national development plans should move beyond addressing competitive advantage models to addressing how they are designing and delivering the transformations needed to ensure they will be healthy entities in a thriveable world by 2050. Financial markets that measure and reward true future value creation rather than ROI and “less bad” ESG (environmental/social/governance) concerns will be a key driver of this shift. In other words, in a thriveable 2050, it will no longer be possible to make excessive returns on financial capital at the cost of any or all the other capitals for the sake of a tiny rich elite. All capitals will need to be regenerated and distributed inclusively for the thriving of all life and all beings on our amazing planet. Once we each awake to our individual and collective power to make better choices, making good happen becomes a natural, inevitable outcome. In Pathway Four, Flourishing Biosphere, the focus is on working with the web of life to regenerate natural capital. This is currently a hotbed of activity globally with a vast array of imaginative initiatives in green agriculture, forestry and fisheries, to name but a few. The valuation of natural capital, which began with carbon and water, is now rapidly extending to an understanding of the real value of entire ecosystems and the initiatives capable of regenerating forests, farms, fisheries, coral reefs, marshes and deltas and much more. Inner city vertical farms and permaculture also offer hope to the urban masses whose food sources will be increasingly threatened by climate change and global warming. Learning to work with the web of life with humans playing a regenerative rather than an exploitative role becomes a critical new capability and skill set.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future In Pathway Five, Resilient Habitats, the focus is on designing and delivering the infrastructure capital, common spaces and architectures that make for thriveable cities, suburbs and rural spaces and places. At a minimum, such places and spaces will be carbon and water neutral, powered by renewable energy and healthy to live and work in. The transformation of the electricity, transportation and construction industries will also contribute to making the design and building of garden villages, towns and cities desirable and doable. In Pathway Six, Circular Manufacturing and Mobility, the focus is on manufactured capital being transformed by a sharing, zero waste, cradle-to-cradle design and production process that uses approaches such as biomimicry to ensure a one-planet footprint for manufacturing industries. The ultimate goal will be for manufacturing, logistics and packaging to become regenerative, inclusive activities with the help of 3D printing fabs and distributed energy and communications grids, approaching the “zero marginal cost economy” envisioned by Jeremy Rifkin.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 1- The Six Pathways to a Thriveable 2050

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

CHAPTER ONE – EXERCISES NOTE – PLEASE FEEL FREE TO USE BLANK WHITE PAPER TO COMPLETE THOSE EXERCISES WHERE YOU DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH SPACE BELOW. 1.

THE VALUE OF LIFE - How valuable is life to you? Your life; the lives of those you love and care for; the people in your street, community, city and country; people all over the world; hundreds of millions of species, from the rainforests to the coral reefs to the savannahs to the depths of the ocean to the mountains and deserts; all thrumming in the web of life we are so intimately a part of. What matters most to you?

Now-

2030

2050

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 2.

CURRENT INITIATIVES - Are you involved in any initiatives to make the world a better place by 2050? What are they, and how can you become more effective in the work you are doing?

FUTURE GLUE – What friendships, connections and networks enable you to do what you do? Can you “connect the dots” between them with an influence network map? What conversations do you need to have with whom to advance your initiatives?

Your Key Connections

Your Influence Network Map

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Key Conversations You Need to Have

DESIRED OUTCOMES – Which of the Six Pathways is most important to you? Why? Which of the other pathways are inputs or outputs to your own primary pathway? What is the nature of the influences they have on each other?

PATHWAY DRIVERS - Which of the Pathway Drivers is most important to you? Why? Which of the other pathway drivers are inputs or outputs to your own primary pathway? What is the nature of the influences they have on each other?

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 6.

KEY LEARNINGS FROM THIS CHAPTER – What are the top three things you’ve learned?

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

CHAPTER ONE – FURTHER READING Synergise! 21st Century Leadership by Dr Robin Wood

1. WHY WE MUST - CAPITALISM – THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY 1.1. Decoding the Anthropocene Enigma 1.2. The Big Picture 1.3. Two Probable Causes of the Next Dark Ages and/or Our Extinction Climate Change Globalised Mono-Capitalism and its Discontents 1.4. What is Working Renewable Energy- A Key Breakthrough What is Synergy & Why Is It Critical to Life & Thriving? Thriveable Social, Economic and Technological Innovation Why is Inclusivity Important? The Sustainable Development Goals Six Pathways to Prosperity for All by 2050 Integrating 17 Sustainable Development Goals, 6 Pathways and 8 Capitals The Sustainable Industry Classification System

Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership Softback & Kindle Full Colour

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future A Leader’s Guide to Thriveability by Dr Robin Wood INTRODUCTION What Does it Mean to be a ThriveAble Leader? The Great Acceleration Need Not be the End of the Road From Sustainability to ThriveAbility Table A – From Suffering to Thriving Why ThriveAbility- Can we Reinvent Capitalism? DIAGRAM 1 – The ThriveAbility Six Capitals Equation What are the Principles that Inform the Development of ThriveAbility? The Logic of ThriveAbility – Transcending and Integrating Key Ingredients for Success & a Thriving, Green Inclusive Economy Transforming Risks into Opportunities Transcending Business and Reporting as Usual Integrated Reporting and Thinking – From Linear Sub-Optimisation to Integrated, Simultaneous Equations 3 Key Elements that will Ensure Longer-Term Organisational Survival DIAGRAM 2 – The Three Gap Problem From Denial to ThriveAbility – The ThriveAbility Journey DIAGRAM 3 – The Five Stages From Denial to ThriveAbility Closing the Three Gaps - The ThriveAbility Index Generator and Delta DIAGRAM 4 – The ThriveAbility Index Generator Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility Softback B&W http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle Softback & Kindle Full Colour

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

CHAPTER TWO – SIX PATHWAYS TO A THRIVEABLE 2050 I hope you have been diligent and completed the exercises and further reading in chapter one. They will definitely help you grasp the importance of what we are going to explore in chapter two: pathways to a thriveable future for all of us. There are two different kinds of pathways. The first is the one described by Robert Frost in his poem: “Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both, And be one traveler, long I stood… Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.” These are two paths that are mutually exclusive- in other words, if you take path A, you cannot, by definition take Path B, at the same time. We are using the term pathways to mean something different. In genetics, medicine and psychiatry “synergistic pathways” is a term used to describe the positive sum effects of different factors in the development of genetic, medical and mental predispositions and their treatment. We can also experience the integration of synergistic culinary pathways by eating out at a restaurant that offers a fusion of cuisines from different cultures. For example, Asian fusion restaurants, which combine the various cuisines of different Asian countries, have become popular in many parts of North America and Europe. Tex-Mex cuisine and Californian cuisine take inspiration from Italy, France, Mexico, the idea of the European delicatessen, and eastern Asia, and then create traditional dishes from these cultures with non-traditional ingredients. And almost everyone loves a good curry or Chinese meal, themselves a product of fusions of cultures and ingredients. The delightful surprises of such different combinations are the result of centuries of experimentation with different ingredients, sauces and recipes, as well as methods of cooking, and offer a wonderful metaphor for the creation of synergies in our lifestyles, businesses and communities. The creative and entrepreneurial flair of great chefs and their restaurants are also crucial in spreading a love for these tasty dishes. When we suggest that we can and should “Redefine the Good Life” and “Redesign the Good Life”, it is in this spirit of global fusion and diversity that can make life a much richer experience by doing things in new, more thriveable ways, rather than

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future in the old ways which often negatively impact our environment and our societies, not to mention our taste buds and health! It is also in this spirit that the food industry has begun to shift its way to more sustainable, diverse offerings, as customers demand healthy, local, organic and tastier options. There are similar extensive levels of choice in the rapidly evolving motor vehicle industry, where hybrid and electric vehicles along with hydrogen are emerging as viable choices for motorists. Of course, the big players with the biggest market shares in most industries would rather you bought what they already have been making very profitably for decades, even though they know you might prefer a greener, more planet friendly and healthier option. Which is where greenwashing kicks in for many products and brands, whether it be selling you a holiday on a heavily polluting cruise ship, or more of that unsustainable beef, generating megatons of greenhouse gases. The wisest and smartest companies, cities and countries, however, really get that being able to offer more sustainable lifestyles and building a regenerative inclusive economy are the way forward to a prosperous, thriveable future. Positive futures arrive through each one of us making positive decisions that collectively add up to big shifts in what businesses invest in and what policies governments pursue. There are three key concepts that explain how such decisions can be made more effectively: trade-offs of “bad” for “less bad” and “good” alternatives (think synthetic meat burgers vs beef burgers); complementary goods and services that enhance each other (think curry and chutney or fish and chips); and synergies between the ingredients we design into our lifestyles, products and services (think faster Wi-Fi/broadband synergising with smarter personal devices with smarter users with smaller footprints).

You Can’t Always Get What You Want During the past century the marketing, public relations and advertising industries have been on a mission to get everyone to want, need and buy more stuff and experience more things. Our shopping malls, online commerce sites, movies, music…. everything we touch, see, hear, smell has been programmed to make us want MORE, BIGGER, BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER. Yet, as the Rolling Stones put it in their now famous song: “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”, we have both individual and collective limits to our time, energy, resources, finances and the space to store all this stuff. We therefore need to make what the economists call “trade-offs”- a trade-off involves a sacrifice that must be made to get a certain product or experience.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future “You can't always get what you want But if you try sometimes, well you just might find You get what you need” For example, if you spend time and money going to a movie, you cannot spend that time at home reading a book, and you can't spend the money on something else. What economists call an “Opportunity Cost” is the cost of missing out on the next best alternative. In other words, an opportunity cost represents the benefits that could have been gained by taking a different decision. For example, the “opportunity cost” of using farmland to grow wheat for bio-fuel means that there is less wheat available for food production, causing food prices to rise (in other words, not a good choice at all!). Because the industries of persuasion have reached into every corner of our lives, we are generally not aware of their influence on how we decide to make the choices we make in trading off one thing/experience for another. Research actually shows that too much choice creates its own unique kind of stress- we can easily become paralysed by “analysis paralysis” - thinking too much about what we want because we have way too much information and not enough processing power to make a logical “good” choice. We can become so aware of the risks involved in different alternatives that we do not enjoy whatever choice we make because we are worried that it will not turn out as promised. Psychologists have even invented a new approach to getting us to make better choices. It is called “the nudge”. For example, we can “nudge” school children to eat healthier food by putting it at eye level in the cafeteria, while junk foods are put lower down in harder to reach places. Supermarkets nudge us to buy more expensive products by putting them at eye level in the supermarket. The really good deals are always lower down and harder to read. The frontline of making good happen is where the aware, well-informed consumer and citizen meets the information being spun at them by businesses and governments offering them “the best deal” or “the right choice”. Huge amounts of money are being spent manipulating elections and consumer choices through indepth market research using advanced social media analysis tools, and at worst, fake accounts, websites and “bots” that disperse waves of misinformation. Whether it’s the misrepresentations of a political campaign (think Trump and Brexit) or the misrepresentations about what kinds of foods, diets and so on are good/bad for you, we are literally under a barrage of both information and misinformation every day. Who and what can we trust in these circumstances? You may use, or have heard others using the word: “Whatever!”, perhaps accompanied by a sigh, indicating that we have tired of trying to decide what the © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future right thing to do/think/buy/feel/vote for/ is in a given situation. That is not a coincidence. Ironically, the best thing to do in these situations of “Fraught choices” and “Wicked problems”, is not to dig down into even more detail, but to step back from the situation you are in and get a better feel for the bigger picture in which you are making the choice or decision, to look at the context and purpose of your choices, the “why?”, not the “what?”. Like “time out” for an over-excited child, this pause provides us with the opportunity for reflection- do I really need this? How else might I fulfil this need? Could something else do in the interim? Have I considered all factors in this decision? Even a few minutes of reflection can make a huge difference to the quality of the choices we make. This is why the first pathway to a thriveable 2050 is about deciding what our priorities are.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY ONE – VALUES AND VISIONS – SETTING PRIORITIES Today global flows of people, goods, services, finance, social networks, and hyper-connective technologies are interweaving markets, media, banks, hospitals, businesses, schools, universities, communities, and individuals more tightly together than ever. The resulting flows of information, knowledge and relationships are making our world not only hyperconnected but also more interdependent than ever before. Yet in some cultures the myth of individualism and the cult of rational self-interest propagated by philosophers such as Ayn Rand and economists such as Milton Freidman have caused grievous harm to hundreds of millions of people. Our values pretty much determine our priorities, and also shape the nature of our visions, dreams and the possibilities we believe are open to us. Some people believe that their values are what they say or think they are, as in statements of belief. For example, “I have liberal values” or “I have conservative values” or “I have Christian values” or “I have Buddhist values”. Yet these are at best superficial, only slightly more consequential than our opinions and attitudes, which like the weather, are changeable. They are the result of our upbringing and our social conditioning, what our families and friends value and believe is important. This is only natural, and nothing to be ashamed of, but be aware that such values have proven to be very malleable. This is what the persuasion industries rely on to shift you to see the world from their point of view. Our real values, however, are hidden deep in our unconscious, shaped in turn by generations of ancestors and life conditions that make you who you are right now. These deeper values change only slowly over time, as we grow and mature. Nearly 400 different psychological schools agree that there are eight or so developmental levels that people can go through in a lifetime, depending upon their own life path and circumstances. Every stage of development opens up new horizons, and brings to bear a different set of values, based on a perception of longer time horizons and a shift from egocentric to ethnocentric to worldcentric ways of being and thinking. © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Until you become aware of what these deeper values are at some point in your life, you are acting out of a script written a long time ago, some of it by people you know and much by people you have never met. Most of us never question our deepest assumptions because we only discover what they are when life hits us over the head and forces us to re-examine them. The next few decades or so before 2050 will certainly be forcing most people on our planet to re-examine their values quite forcefully. And very few of them are ready for that. Are you? If our values make it our priority to build healthy communities and societies, then we will need to understand the key capital that develops them- social capital. According to a recent study by the World Bank, social capital is not only an essential pillar of the economy. It also has a direct and irreplaceable monetary value. It accounts for more than 20% of the value of all goods and services produced (with peaks of 28% in the OECD countries), making it the most valuable ‘industry’ any country can boast. Trust is the essential ingredient that the growth economy has never managed to understand, even though it relies on it to exist. The trust embedded in the handshake is the founding institution of the market and society. In order to grow social capital, we need to invest in the basics that create a civilized society. For working societies to endure, grow, and cohere, they need basic things that people believe everyone should have. In the UK, those things — those moral universals — are healthcare and media and welfare. In Germany, they are healthcare and media and welfare and higher education. And so on. Unfortunately in the USA it is these basic necessities that are being run down, leading to a rapid erosion of social capital. Healthcare, education, welfare and culture/media anchor a society in a genuinely shared prosperity. Not just because they “spread the wealth”, though they do: because, more deeply, moral universals civilize people. They are what let people grow to become sane, humane, intelligent human beings. A person that is desperate for a meal will resort to whatever they must to feed their kids. A person constantly fed a stream of nonsense by Fox News will end up believing the earth is flat. Moral universals let people act morally, and acting morally is what the process of civilization is. Social capital is generated in networks of relationships. It is networks that learn, adapt and evolve- whether they are networks of neurons, networks of people, or networks of firms, technologies and platforms. Your ability to learn fundamentally depends on the ability of your neurons to rewire and reconnect. The brain is made up of billions of nerve cells, called © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future neurons. Neurons “talk” to each other, mostly using chemical messengers. Incoming signals cause a listening neuron to fire or send signals of its own. A cell fires when an electrical signal travels through it. The signal moves away from what is called the cell body, down through a long structure called an axon. When the signal reaches the end of the axon, it triggers the release of those chemical messengers. The chemicals then leap across a tiny gap. This triggers the next cell to fire. And on it goes. As we learn something new, cells that send and receive information about the task become more and more efficient. It takes less effort for them to signal the next cell about what’s going on. In a sense, the neurons become wired together. In a network of people, a similar thing happens. People that bond and connect together are capable of learning together. This is why the family plays such an important role in learning, along with peer groups in education and teams in sports and work. One can change the kind of learning that occurs by changing the nodes in the network (the people), or by changing the way in which those nodes interconnect (their connections). In the case of people and work, one can also deliberately change the content flowing through those connections and people by changing the context or the focus of the tasks they are performing or the goals they are set. Organisations learn through the integration all of these learning experiences, if their cultures are sufficiently open to enable the flow of learning and information to flow through them unimpeded. Equally, those in roles of leadership can amplify certain beneficial flows and attenuate other less valuable flows in order to keep the organization alive and well. In a society, learning is a function of not only what networks of neurons and networks of people learn, it is also a function of how firms, departments, technologies, products and services are inter-linked in networks that deliver specific experiences and meet specific needs. In other words, it is the combined, integrated effect of how things work together (or don’t!), that determines how well things work for each of us and for our society in general. Such integration is often accidental, and partial. This is not surprising, as it is impossible to pre-state exactly what combination of ideas, people, platforms, products and services are likely to come together at any particular moment in time one is fulfilling a need or performing a specific activity or engaging in a particular experience. Yet, it IS possible to design combination of ideas, people, platforms, products and services in ways that are likely to come together to generate a thriveable outcome, and one that can be measured using True Future Value metrics. This is in fact, a

Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future fundamental observation of ThriveAbility- that we are not helpless creatures adrift on the sea of turbulence, but quite the opposite: a species of homo universalis, capable of shaping our world and its future, and perhaps even the future of our solar system. Spending time building relationship and intellectual capital is vital to creating the thriving, ethical cultures that are evident in societies where such basic necessities of civilization are made a priority. As relationship and intellectual capital help build social capital, we find the possibility of open, regenerative and inclusive societies becoming real, as we can see in Scandinavia, for example. In cultures where trust is high, making good happen is easier than in cultures where trust is low. This means that we need to redefine the good life not as eternal economic growth affording us the latest consumer goods and services through ever increasing amounts of work and debt, but as a collaboration within and between communities and societies to co-create the basic necessities of life for all through regenerative, inclusive cultures that focus on thriving and meaning- on quality of life, not quantity of possessions.

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY TWO – HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Good healthcare, education, media and welfare are key to wellbeing and life-long learning. In societies where the basic needs of all are met, it is possible for everyone, both rich and poor, to live fulfilling lives. Developing human capital is a top priority for civilized societies and organisations. There is currently some form of compulsory education in almost all the countries on our planet. In the next 30 years more people will receive formal education than in all of human history. For example, the percentage of the global population without any schooling decreased from 36% in 1960 to 25% in 2000. Education is rapidly moving beyond schooling and formal education alone to include non-formal and informal modes of instruction and learning, including traditional learning acquired in the home and community. Solving complex problems, systems thinking, working well in multi-disciplinary multi-cultural teams, thinking creatively and imaginatively- these are just a few of the key attributes needed to get ahead in the 21st century world of work and life. Yet they are not generally found in traditional curricula. Life-long learning is now a reality as the pace of change accelerates and skills become obsolete faster. Being an engaged and informed citizen as well as a contributor to the work and life of a community become key for thriving individuals, businesses and communities. Artificial intelligence, assistive technologies, web-based delivery and interaction, cultivating meta-cognition and whole-bodied learning at home, on-the-job and in leisure and public spaces- we are just at the beginning of a revolution in how we learn, grow and develop as people, families, communities, organisations, nations and globally. We see the beginnings of not just a global brain emerging, but also a global heart with compassion, and a global “gut” that offers intuitive insights and nudges, and the courage to stand up for what is right and thriveable.

Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future Human vision, imagination, development and learning are the core drivers of the shifts between the Stone Age, the Agricultural Age, the Industrial Age and now the information/Knowledge Age and what comes next. Without vision and imagination, we would not be able to see possibilities or invent the new and play creatively with it. Without learning and development, synergistic innovations based on those new ideas would not be possible, and we would still be large hairy apes walking upright in the savannah- or not here at all, given the hazardous lifeconditions we have had to adapt to over the course of the past few hundred thousand years. Yet remarkably, in that space of time we have become the dominant species on this planet, with both good and bad consequences for all to see. We have, in fact, become so numerous and well endowed that we are choking on our own success. What it means to be human has changed several times during our evolution, and it is about to change again, as we deal with the massive accelerations in technology, our environment, politics, governance, economics and business and the way in which we learn and make decisions. The vision for Pathway Two is meeting the basic needs of all by 2050. To this we can add the Sustainable Development Goals, which lay out 17 areas for a world that works for all of us by 2030. Climate action that keeps global warming to less than 2 degrees, and the regeneration of life below water and on land so that we live within our environmental ceilings, is a precondition for all else. In turn social goals that underpin the social floors for all of us include the elimination of poverty and hunger plus sanitation, clean water, healthcare and education made available to all. The ability to integrate our most important insights into the consequences of shifts in global economic flows, technology trends, international politics, and environmental challenges is now critical for our survival as a species. The challenge of learners, educators and people developers everywhere is how to develop the abilities needed for interdisciplinary knowledge acquisition and integration. Technology and AI, as well as enhanced human cognitive capacities, will all play their role. The biggest challenge will be not just to understand the accelerations and disruptions to better forecast and invent the future, but to adapt to a world with fewer dependable points of reference and fewer predetermined elements. A world where constant change and frequent disruptions and discontinuities are the rule rather than the exception, and the day-to-day realities we need to understand and work with emerges from messy bottom up processes rather than the top down decisions taken by government, business, civic and civil society leaders.

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future We will need the ability to discern the patterns, principles and processes of living and becoming in a global fitness landscape of increasingly conscious, evolving beings embedded in a field of collective interactions between billions of learners in a single system where humanity and the biosphere are one living, evolving, conscious whole. In the next few decades, we can reconnect with the possibility of pulsating with life and energy again, as we did naturally as hunter-gatherers, when we were still intricately interconnected with nature. Growth, efficiency, competing and consuming become less important as we integrate our own thriving with the thriving of humanity and all life. Learning and education become part of this journey of rediscovery of our roots, driven by action and experience, rather than a content and classroom focus. Each of us becomes a part of the co-creation process where we start shaping our futures at a young age by being given many choices and options, so that we can learn to make better decisions and choices in all areas of life and work. Moreover, because being educated will no longer be an exception for the elites, but an opportunity available to all, our energy and focus will need to be on how we cultivate our own creativity, compassion and courage to thrive and help others thrive while honouring the social floors and environmental limits that will become a bare minimum for a civilised human being in the 21st century. Resonance, alignment and coherence will be the sought after qualities of leaders in every field, discipline and walk of life. The ability to master large quantities of facts and knowledge will become the domain of artificially intelligent “beings” that act as our aides; wisdom and foresight will be qualities in demand. In the 21st century we will realize the power of organizations as living ecosystems. Our role will shift to empowering others and all life to thrive and let thrive – cocreating fruitful conditions for thriving for all stakeholders: employees, organisations, customers, communities, civic and civil society and our biosphere. We will need to become wise, compassionate stewards of life and living systems. But first, our circles of care and trust must expand to embrace all of humanity and all life. A quantum leap in education and learning has begun, as we make the transition from traditional education to synergistic, life-long learning and development in an education system that encourages creativity and empowers the mind and whole person. The possibilities inherent in new technologies that can enhance the role of imagination and inspiration in shaping our future are key. We also must counter the threats posed by being “in over our heads” in a mediated world manipulated by weaponised narratives. In this hyperconnected world, the

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future emergence of brain-computer interfaces (BCI), artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of man reaching for the final frontier of space, we must ensure a “race to the top” rather than a “race to the bottom”, driven by the dumbing down of our media and populist ideologies Our global media mirror can be used to point us in the direction of the opportunities ahead, enabling us to scout the pathways to realise those opportunities. Finally, our sources of inspiration in self, culture and nature can help us imagine and catalyse a second Renaissance on a global scale with hundreds of millions of inspired people networked together by our thrumming global web of life and possibilities.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY THREE – THRIVEABLE ECONOMIES We all need to find meaning and satisfaction in our lives and our work. Yet the explosion of technologies and infrastructures brought about by the industrial and information ages now means most of us still manage to make a living, but are disconnected from our work and workplace. Unemployment in many countries is also very high, and workers have seen their wages drop quite dramatically over the past four decades relative to the rise in wealth of the richest 10%. The gap between the rich, middle classes and poor has continued to grow dramatically in the past 40 years. In developed countries the middle class in particular has seen its income flatten and fall during this period, while the richest 1% have seen dramatic gains from globalisation. American Senator Elizabeth Warren put it well when she explained to an audience why governments and public services are vital to develop ourselves and our economies: “There is nobody in this country who got rich on their own. Nobody. You built a factory out there – good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory … Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea – God bless! Keep a hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.” In some countries the social contract has been reduced to: “If you educate and train yourself diligently at great personal expense, you might be lucky to get a good job for a while. Because you are just a number in the statistics, as soon as you become obsolete you will have to retrain yourself at further great personal expense. Then you might be lucky to get a good job for another while. Make sure you save for your retirement, because by then there will be no one else to look after you. And healthcare- you’re on your own”. © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Cue the charities and foundations that can fill this gap, but again you should be so lucky to actually receive a helping hand from them. And in turn you will have to be eternally grateful. The proliferation of the non-profit foundation has come hand in hand with the ascent of neoliberalism. These are the “new mean, very rich guys”, whose foundations operate to protect their own interests, including the industries that made their fortunes in the first place. “The revolution will not be funded beyond the non-profit industrial complex”, says Ruthie Gilmore of Incite! How can we reinvent the social contract so that a thriveable economy becomes possible for all of us as a guaranteed outcome? What kind of a political economy will become possible in the next few decades, given the challenges we face in the exit turbulence of our current dysfunctional growth-at-all-costs policies? What does a regenerative, inclusive socioeconomic system look like, and how do we get from here to there? How can the true costs of our political economies be reflected in true prices, encouraged by true taxation that encourages us to work, earn income and regenerate vital capitals while penalising activities that harm our stocks of natural, human and social capitals? How can thriveable governance and leadership help us create a safe and just operating space for humanity by 2050? The outcomes we are looking for from Thriveable Governance system would include the following “must haves” by 2050: •

Incorporating the costs of externalities, starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water, into the structure of the marketplace;

•

Doubling agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used (and one should add, reducing dramatically the amount of agro-chemicals used);

•

Halting deforestation and increasing yields from planted forests;

•

Eliminating man-made carbon emissions worldwide (based on 2005 levels) by 2050 through a shift to low-carbon energy systems;

•

Improved demand-side energy efficiency, and providing universal access to low-carbon mobility.

The Pathway Three vision requires us to redefine progress and “the good life”. As a starting point, the cost of carbon, water and other ecosystem services needs to be included in every economic activity, so that we can measure true, value, true costs and true profits. The ThriveAbility Equation that measures True Future Value creation, takes us to another level in this quest. Measuring True Future Value helps

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future us make better decisions, compared with pure profit, economic value added and shareholder value added measures. The metrics that govern the decisions of the people who run our planet’s economic and political systems include Economic Value Added (EVA), Return on Investment (ROI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Economic Value Added (EVA) is an estimate of a firm's economic profit, or the value created in excess of the required return of the company's shareholders. EVA is the net profit less the equity cost of the firm's capital. The idea is that value is created when the return on the firm's economic capital employed exceeds the cost of that capital. Return on Investment (ROI) is the benefit to an investor resulting from an investment of some resource. A high ROI means the investment's gains compare favourably to its cost. As a performance measure, ROI is used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiencies of several different investments. In purely economic terms, it is one way of relating profits to capital invested. Both ROI and EVA are ways of measuring the monetary return on an investment of financial capital. Neither measure is intended to reflect any qualitative assessment of the investment. For example, an amoral person could decide to invest in a fossil fuel project because it offered high returns in the short term, while leading to death and disaster as global warming rises as a result. The same argument would apply to investing in weapons manufacturers (a very profitable business in many developed countries), tobacco, drugs or alcohol- good short-term profits, but with disastrous long-term social and environmental consequences. And it is you and I and our taxes that pick up the tab for these destructive outcomes, essentially subsidizing the profits of those unethical companies. The same ethical dilemma applies to GDP, but on a national scale. The pursuit of ever-growing GDP on a planet with finite biophysical resources is one of the major blind spots of politicians and economists that bolsters a “business-as-usual” approach when we should be changing course dramatically in all six of the pathways to a thriveable 2050. The widespread use of GDP and GDP per capita have led many to think of quality of life only in monetary terms. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of economic activity that captures the value of goods and services that a country produces during a given period. Over the past 50 years, most developed countries have pursued GDP growth as a means of improving quality of life. In the long run these countries have been highly successful in keeping this number on a steady incline, but regular economic crises such as the 2008 recession and their consequences have led many to question the © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future theory behind the bullish pursuit of GDP growth. Periods of real GDP growth are thought to enhance the welfare of individuals as economic growth allows average incomes to rise, supporting a higher level of consumption. Periods of negative real GDP growth are associated with lower incomes, lower consumption and consequently a lower standard of living. GDP has been criticized since its inception as a deeply flawed way of measuring what really matters in a society. GDP is a measure of production, not of welfare— which, as GDP growth became a goal for politicians, also became an occasion for criticism. In a famous speech in March 1968, Robert Kennedy took aim at what he saw as idolatrous respect for GDP, which measures advertising and jails but does not capture “the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages”. Measuring GDP requires adding up the value of what is produced, net of inputs, across a wide variety of business lines, weighting each according to its importance in the economy. Both the output and whatever materials used in making it have to be adjusted for inflation to arrive at a figure that allows for comparison with what has gone before. This is tricky enough to do for an economy of farms, production lines and mass markets—the setting in which GDP was first introduced. For today’s rich economies, dominated by made-to-order services and increasingly geared to the quality of experience rather than the production of ever more stuff, the trickiness is raised to a higher level. In the mid 1990s an economist at Yale University, looked at two ways of measuring the price of light over the past two centuries. You could do it the way someone calculating GDP would do: by adding up the change over time in the prices of the things people bought to make light. On this basis, he reckoned, the price of light rose by a factor of between three and five between 1800 and 1992. But each innovation in lighting, from candles to tungsten light bulbs, was far more efficient than the last. If you measured the price of light in the way a costconscious physicist might, in cents per lumen-hour, it plummeted more than a hundredfold. Economists’ attempts to measure changes in living standards are indeed deeply flawed. Any true reckoning of real incomes must somehow account for the vast changes in the quality of things we consume. In the case of light, a measurement of inflation based on the cost of things that generated light and one based on a quality-adjusted measure of light itself would have differed by 3.6% a year. The problem is not just that it is hard to make these calculations. It is that what the calculations produce is a measure put to too many purposes, and, though useful, not truly fit for any of them. And there are worries that things may be getting © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future worse. As the price of light illustrates, standard measures miss some of the improvements delivered by innovation. But at least new lighting products show up in the figures once people start buying the things in sufficient volume. These days it seems that a growing fraction of innovation is not measured at all. In a world where houses are Airbnb hotels and private cars are Uber taxis, where a free software upgrade renews old computers, and Facebook and YouTube bring hours of daily entertainment to hundreds of millions at no price at all, many suspect GDP is becoming an ever more misleading measure. In 1972 Nordhaus and James Tobin came up with a “measure of economic welfare” which counted some bits of state spending, such as defence and education, not as output but as a cost to GDP. It also adjusted for wear-and-tear to capital and the “disamenities” of urban life, such as congestion. The paper was in part a response to environmentalist concerns that GDP treats the plunder of the planet as something that adds to income, rather than as a cost. It was much talked about; it was not much acted on. In 2009 a report commissioned by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and chaired by Joseph Stiglitz, a prominent economist, called for an end to “GDP fetishism” in favour of a “dashboard” of measures to capture human welfare.

How Can We Design and Deliver Healthy, Thriveable Growth? There is much debate around the topic of economic growth. In principle, the opponents of growth at any cost are right- one cannot grow an unsustainable economy forever on a planet with limited biophysical resources. We know that business as usual will generate a 4C warming scenario, which threatens us with runaway global warming and the extinction of 90% of life on earth, including us. The immediate solution then reached for is the “steady-sate economy”, where there is now growth but we reduce our needs to conform to a one-planet footprint. In practice this has very few takers. But what if the only growth allowed was healthy sustainable, thriveable growth, which regenerates natural, human, social and other capitals in inclusive ways? Would such “green growth” not be an attractive alternative to our current fossil fuel powered, exclusive growth where the gains go mainly to the rich and the costs to the poor? Such a transformation is underway on a small but increasingly exponential scale in certain areas at the moment- renewable energy, natural capital regeneration and a steady shift toward more sustainable investments for example. Such “good” initiatives are slowly crowding out “bad” products, services and infrastructure in may locations around the world.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Transformations can be driven by many mechanisms, from government edicts and international agreements (the Paris Climate Accord and SDG’s being two examples), to market-incentives such as feed in tariffs for renewable energy to the shift in subsidies from fossil fuels and petrol and diesel engines to renewable smart grids and hybrid/electric vehicles. Innovation also helps accelerate this process by lowering the cost of substitutes to traditional ways of doing things, as exemplified by the impact of Tesla on both the electric vehicle and solar roof top industries. In addition to more thriveable substitutes being available for existing harmful products, services and infrastructures, the adoption of new ways of doing things can also be accelerated by complementary products, services and infrastructures that make the new ways of doing things even better. Mobility as a service is one great example- substituting petrol/diesel driven traffic jams with electric/hybrid traffic jams is not nearly as attractive as using mobility apps to help commuters and drivers everywhere find the most effective way to get from A to B cheaply and securely with low or no impact on the environment and others. Add in new business models encouraging ride and vehicle sharing and autonomous vehicles that can support mobility as a service, and you have a major synergistic series of innovations leading to the transformation of mobility. See diagram 2 below for an example of such a transformation process. So, the possibility of growing the economy and jobs using an adjusted set of metrics that transcend ROI and GDP would include the true cost, true pricing and true taxation of “Bad” and “Less Bad” products, services and infrastructures, thus encouraging the rapid adoption of “Better” and “Good” products, services and infrastructures. For example, in 2016 “advanced energy” was a $1.4 trillion global industry, almost twice the size of the global airline industry, and nearly equal to worldwide apparel revenue. This is a 7% increase compared to the 2015 total of $1.3 trillion. This also means twice as many jobs as in the coal industry, with the latter being phased out over the next decade or so if all goes well. There are essentially two major issues with regard to growth- the first being the quality of growth we have discussed above, the second being the qualitative impacts of growth on human wellbeing and development and the regeneration of our natural, social, infrastructure and manufactured capitals. Amongst the several different approaches to replacing GDP as the primary measure of growth, the Adjusted GDP approach attempts to operate within the traditional GDP framework by creating a system to add or deduct from GDP based on factors influencing quality of life.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 2- The Substitution of Fossil Fuels by Renewable Energy and Green Mobility as a Service

For example, one such system might take the final figure for GDP and subtract values based on pollution or environmental damage, inequality, health, etc. to calculate a figure more representative of the country as a whole. Some countries have started to put adjusted GDP’s, such as India’s green GDP, into effect, however, specifically in terms of accurately representing quality of life, these are still in very early stages. To transcend ROI and EVA, we would demand as consumers, shareholders and citizens that businesses demonstrate their ability to add true future value across all the capitals, not just better financial returns at the expense of other capitals. In 2017 the report “Better Business, Better World”, (prepared by the more than 35 CEOs and civil society leaders of the Business & Sustainable Development Commission (“BSDC”), reveals that sustainable business models could open economic opportunities worth up to US$12 trillion and increase employment by up to 380 million jobs by 2030. Putting the Sustainable Development Goals, or Global Goals, at the heart of the world’s economic strategy could unleash a stepchange in growth and productivity, with an investment boom in sustainable

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future infrastructure as a critical driver. Radical change in the business and investment community is, however, required to make this happen. Real leadership is needed for the private sector to become a trusted partner in working with government and civil society to fix the economy. In the next decade thriveable companies can help co-create 60 key market “hot spots,” that also tackle social, environmental challenges, and re-build trust with society. OVERVIEW OF THE SIX PATHWAYS PATHWAYS ONE TO THREE – TRANSFORMING WHAT IT MEANS TO BE HUMAN In Pathway One - Values & Visions- 21C Lifestyles & the New World of Work we found that in the transition from Industrial/Information age to thriveable 21st century lifestyles and the new world of work, we are shifting rapidly from the individualistic, consumption orientation of developed economies, to a more convergent, circular, sharing economy orientation characterised by the integration of thriveable networks and their associated human, relationship, social and intellectual capitals. We see the need for “future glue” to create the space for synergistic innovations. In Pathway Two - Human Development- Creating the Conditions for Wellbeing and Thriving, we explored how we can cultivate our own creativity, compassion and courage to thrive and help others thrive, to realise the possibility of us all pulsating with life and energy, while making our organizations and communities living, breathing ecosystems. We explored how the science of flourishing or “thriving” can help drive the learning, creativity, innovation, personal and social development that lie at the core of this transformation. In Pathway Three – Thriveable Economies, we outlined what a regenerative, inclusive socioeconomic system looks like, and how we can get from here to there; how the true costs of our political economies can be reflected in true prices, encouraged by true taxation that encourages us to work, earn income and regenerate vital capitals while penalising activities that harm our stocks of natural, human and social capitals; and the role of thriveable governance and leadership in creating a safe and just operating space for humanity.

PATHWAYS FOUR TO SIX – TRANSFORMING PLACES, SPACES, PRODUCTS & SERVICES Now we move to Pathways Four, Five and Six, which focus on regenerating our natural, infrastructure and manufactured capitals while designing thriveable habitats fit for the 21st century. As you may have already begun to conclude, the inter-weaving of these six pathways in order to achieve the breakthroughs of synergistic innovation is absolutely fundamental.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY FOUR – A FLOURISHING BIOSPHERE Natural capital, or “nature”, as we used to innocently call it, is the single most vital capital on our planet. If we do not regenerate our stocks of natural capital, everything we love and cherish starts dying around us. Right now, every single one of the trillions of cells in your body is regenerating itself. Damage caused by free oxygen radicals, pollutants, and the natural breakdown of cells as they age, is continually being repaired, 24x7. New cells are being created to replace those dying cells, so that even though you may add a few grey hairs or wrinkles every year as you age, you can still function normally, and hopefully, thrive. As health conscious human beings, we worry justifiably about our weight, blood pressure, heart rate, cholesterol levels and so on, as we know there is a strong relationship between those indicators and our health. In the same way, our planetary biosphere has nine indicators which tell us if she is healthy or not, and right now she has a rising fever compounded by kidney and liver damage along with some lung damage caused by all the pollutants we are pumping into her air, water and oceans. Just as you can be guaranteed a swift death if you smoke 100 cigarettes and drink a couple of bottles of spirits a day, so too can we guarantee the death of 90% of life on earth if we continue our current lifestyles and business as usual. We have already overshot four of the nine planetary boundaries that keep us and the rest of the biosphere alive: •

climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, from the burning of fossil fuels in the past three centuries, so that we now have 400+ parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere overheating our planet instead of 250 ppm a century or so ago (increasing risk zone);

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

biosphere integrity where the sixth mass extinction of species has already reached a speed never before seen in the history of our planet both on land in in our oceans (high risk zone);

•

biogeochemical flows where both phosphorous and nitrogen emissions are in the red, causing dead zones in waterways and coastal zones around the world (high risk zone);

•

land system change involving the conversion of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other vegetation types to agricultural land plays a major role in biodiversity reduction, and has impacts on water flows and on the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus and other important elements.

Our planet is unwell, and if we were to take it to the doctor for a prescription, he would recommend: •

climate change – an immediate reduction in the use of fossil fuels and their complete replacement by renewable energy and other green sources by 2050;

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biosphere integrity - the current high rates of ecosystem damage and extinction can be slowed by efforts to protect the integrity of living systems (the biosphere), enhancing habitat, and improving connectivity between ecosystems while maintaining the high agricultural productivity that humanity needs;

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biogeochemical flows – new kinds of agricultural practices that reduce the use of nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizers need to be scaled up rapidly, along with methods that regenerate the fertility of our soil naturally and capture carbon;

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land system change – stop cutting down rainforests and improve our management of wetlands and grasslands with more natural, carbon absorbing and water preserving farming and grazing practices.

While it is clear that fossil fuel use needs to be cut back dramatically to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, our conservation and regeneration efforts on land and sea give us some real hope that the world’s most endangered ecosystems will both regenerate and adapt with our help, ensuring that the magic of rainforests, coral reefs and other wild places will be there for our grandchildren to enjoy. Spurring deeper innovation and step-changes to ensure a healthy, thriving global economy and food for all must be a priority for each one of us.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future What we will be focusing on in this section on Pathway Four, are the immediate, direct synergistic innovations we can catalyse and support to regenerate our ecosystems, oceans and forests, while also regenerating our soils and farmland so that we can feed 9 billion hungry mouths in 2050. 500 years ago, at the beginning of the first Renaissance, the price and productivity of waterwheels, iron hammers, printing presses, ploughs, horses and carriages, candles and all other key technologies was relatively stable. When technologies and ways of doing things changed, along with the consciousness, values and capabilities of the people using them, they did so very slowly, enabling each new generation to easily adapt to those changes. Life was short, families were large and food was very unevenly distributed, but people never complained, “Everything is changing so fast!” In the 21st century, we find the opposite. Families are smaller, lives are longer and healthier, and science and technology and our ways of living are changing at warp speed. Although nearly one billion people still suffer from food insecurity and two billion do not have proper sanitation or clean drinking water, life for 5.5 billion people has improved beyond the wildest dreams of their ancestors who struggled to make a living with antiquated, back-breaking technologies. Yet all of this progress is now threatened by the way we are over-shooting our planetary boundaries, and over-consuming the earth’s resources. We are lucky enough to have the opportunity to be living in a time when this speed of innovation can be applied to achieve exponential outcomes, rather than just linear outcomes. This is one of the keys to synergistic innovation, when exponential scientific and technological progress can be integrated with sensible, regenerative and inclusive values and ways of living and making a living. Let’s take a few examples out of the many hundreds of thousands of breakthroughs happening right now around our planet: Water, Sanitation and Food You may have already heard of the food, water and energy "nexus"- this is where food, water and energy systems intersect. It takes water (lots of it) to create food and energy. It also takes energy to move, heat and treat water and to produce food, and sometimes we even use food crops as a source of energy. It is important to be able to make more thriveable choices with nexus thinking. We live on a planet covered by water- 97% of it is salt water in the oceans, and the other 3% is fresh water locked up in the Arctic/Antarctic ice caps and mountain range glaciers (69% of 3%); ground water (30% of 3%) and surface water (0.3% of 3%) in lakes, rivers and swamps. To put that in perspective, .009% of the fresh

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future water on or planet is available on its surface for human consumption, while .9% is available to those who can drill beneath the earth to access ground water. A scarce resource, I am sure you will agree, yet our management of water globally is abysmal. Our bodies are 80% or so water, and we cannot survive for more than a few days without it. Climate change caused by global warming now means that large areas of the earth’s surface either are getting too much water, in the form of megastorms and floods, or too little, in the form of drought, in addition to rising sea levels which mean that many sources of fresh water are now being polluted by salt water. Clean fresh water is life. We cannot grow food, or people, without it. The world’s 25 poorest countries already spend about 20% of their GDP on water. And when the rains fail as they increasingly do in Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Southern Africa, Australia, California and China, headlines are generated, whether its about wars caused by a shortage of water and food, or because Californians, South Africans and Australians are having to take shorter showers, let their lawns turn brown and lose livestock and farm output plus suffering from an increase in wildfires. 70% of the world’s water is used for agriculture. Let’s take a look at a typical “western” lunch. A loaf of bread requires about 240 gallons of water, and a pound of cheese takes about 382 gallons. So a simple cheese sandwich takes about 56 gallons of water. Throw in a small bag of potato chips at 12 gallons and you just ate about 68 gallons of water. Add some turkey and it jumps to 160 gallons! Thirsty? Rinse your sandwich down with an ice-cold soda and you can add an extra 46 gallons of water onto your tab. Let’s take a closer look at protein. An egg takes 450 litres (120 gallons) of water to produce. And meat, pound for pound, has a much higher water footprint than vegetables, grains or beans. For instance, a single pound of beef takes, on average, 6 800 litres (1,800) gallons of water. That huge water footprint is primarily due to the tremendous amount of water needed to grow the grass, forage and feed that a beef steer eats over its lifetime, plus water for drinking, cleaning and processing. Luckily, there are some fine initiatives that are treating water with respect, and helping those who struggle to access it, to get a fairer share. Here’s a short but liquid story about one such initiative.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Of Slingshots, SolarKiosks and Ekocenters In the developed world, we take clean water coming out of a tap for granted. Since the time of Napoleon, who declared clean water to be free to all French citizens, the idea that governments should provide water services to their people has been fundamental to western civilization. Electricity has also become, like water, a basic right, along with sanitation. Remote and distressed areas of the world, as well as the giant city slums undergoing a transition from Era 2 to Era 3 lifestyles and living conditions, all lack these basic services. In developing countries 800 million people lack access to safe drinking water, 2 billion people lack sanitation facilities and a quarter of humanity gets by without electricity. Projects that bring together business, government, and civil society – the “Golden Triangle” – are key to bringing basic necessities to millions of people, given the failure of their governments to do so. The World Health Organization tells us that every year more than 3.4 million people die as a result of water related diseases, making it the leading cause of disease and death around the world. Most of the victims are young children, the vast majority of whom die of illnesses caused by organisms that thrive in water sources contaminated by raw sewage. At any given time, close to half the population of the developing world is suffering from waterborne diseases associated with inadequate provision of water and sanitation services. There are about four billion cases of diarrheal disease per year, resulting in about one or two million deaths, some ninety percent of which, tragically, are in children under the age of five. Cholera, typhoid fever and hepatitis A are caused by bacteria, and are among the most common diarrheal diseases. Other illnesses, such as dysentery, are caused by parasites that live in water contaminated by the faeces of sick individuals. Lakes and streams which people use for drinking water, bathing and defecating are sources of disease, as is water left by natural disasters. Tsunamis, hurricanes and floods leave victims in ankle-deep water, amid destroyed sewage pipes. People can also contract a diarrheal disease by eating food that's prepared by sick individuals who have not washed their hands, or touching something handled by an infected person and then putting their own hands into their mouths. A number of social entrepreneurs have teamed up with different partners worldwide to address the interlinked problems of water, electricity and sanitation. Innovative ways of filtering water to provide clean drinking water without killer bacteria and viruses in them. Let’s explore how some of these solutions are coming together to meet the Sustainable Development Goal no 6:

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future “By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all, as well as access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all”. At first glance, the bright red shipping container that sits by the side of the road in a slum outside Johannesburg doesn’t look like something that could transform hundreds of lives. Two sliding doors open to reveal a small shop counter, behind which sit rows of canned food, toilet paper, cooking oil, and first-aid supplies. Solar panels on the roof power wireless Internet and a television, for the occasional soccer game. And two faucets dispense free purified drinking water to anyone who wants it. Created primarily by Coca-Cola and Deka Research and Development, the container is meant to be a kind of "downtown in a box": a web-connected bodegacum-community centre that can be dropped into underdeveloped villages all over the world. Coke calls it an Ekocenter. It’s a pithy name, but it masks the transformative technology hidden within the container. Inside the big red box sits a smaller one, the size of a small fridge, called a Slingshot. Using a process called vapour compression distillation; a single Slingshot can purify more than 250,000 litres of water per year, enough to satisfy the needs of about 300 people. And it can do so with any water source—sewage, seawater and chemical waste—no matter how dirty. For communities that lack clean water, the benefit is obvious, but to realize that potential, the Slingshot needs to reach them first. Which is where Coke comes in: The company is not just a soft-drink merchant; it is arguably the largest, most sophisticated distribution system in the world. Another key piece to the puzzle, is the SOLARKIOSKi, developed by architects and a private company based in Berlin, Germany. SOLARKIOSK combines an award-winning design and innovative technology with an inclusive business model to enable economic and social development in off-the-grid communities. Combine a Slingshot with a SolarKiosk and the distribution muscle of Coke, and you get an “EKOCENTER” - a modular community market that is run by a local woman entrepreneur and also provides safe water, solar power, Internet access, and more. It operates “off-the-grid,” from a kiosk that becomes a hub of community activity by providing a place of commerce as well as safe drinking water, solar power and wireless communication. Other functionality that can be added to jump-start community development includes social facilities and entertainment; power generation for charging phones; cooling/refrigeration of vaccines; education opportunities; and much more. There

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future are now over 100 EKOCENTERs in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ghana and Vietnam and Southern Africa, and they continue to expand globally. Community participation and support are essential to the success of EKOCENTER, which is why local female entrepreneurs operate them. Empowering community well-being through social enterprise is key. As an old African proverb says: “If you want to go fast, go alone, if you want to go far, go together,” - by leveraging our collective thinking, experience and resources, we create more thriveable outcomes together. This is synergistic innovation at its finest, as it literally transforms the lives of the people and communities involved. Our Oceans While freshwater is vital for life on land, the other 97% of the world’s water lies in our deep blue oceans, one of the reasons our planet looks like a giant blue pearl from space. The world’s oceans feed more people than the land- roughly 3 billion people rely on wild-caught fish as a critical protein source today while aquaculture feeds a billion more. With better management, wild-caught fish could feed another half billion humans in the near futureii. Current estimates predict that there will be no more fish left in the oceans by 2050 if current overfishing trends continue, so this literally is a matter of life or death for half of the world’s population, and for those who like their sushi and tasty fish dishes. Between climate change, ocean acidification, pollution and exploitation, marine ecosystems are more threatened today than they’ve ever been in human history. Overfishing is one piece of a much larger puzzle—but it’s a piece where humans can affect fast and lasting change. Fisheries in the United States, Australia, Belize, Namibia, and elsewhere have turned to fishing rights systems in recent years, with remarkable success. Sustainable Development Goal 14 has as its goal to conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. Amongst the top priority sub-goals, we find that by 2020 SDG 14 aims to: •

regulate harvesting and end overfishing, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and destructive fishing practices and implement science-based management plans, in order to restore fish stocks in the shortest time feasible, at least to levels that can produce maximum sustainable yield as determined by their biological characteristics;

•

prohibit certain forms of fisheries subsidies which contribute to overcapacity and overfishing, eliminate subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and refrain from introducing new such subsidies, recognizing that appropriate and effective special and

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future differential treatment for developing and least developed countries should be an integral part of the World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies negotiation. There are some encouraging signs that, despite the world catch from the oceans having peaked in the late 20th century and declined since then, that we may turn the corner in the next decade. Aquaculture, the farming of seafood, is another area offering high hopes for feeding the world. There is evidence that the Chinese were farming fish in 5th century BCE, and the Egyptians and Romans were great oyster cultivators as well, so aquaculture is not exactly new. What is new, however, is that since the 1980s, when growth rates allowing an economic return were achieved, world aquaculture production has increased from 7% of global fisheries to over 40%iii . By 2024 the OECD estimates that aquaculture will produce more seafood than is caught in the world’s oceans. The productivity of aquaculture has also risen dramatically: it takes between 1.5 to 3 kg of feed to produce one kg of chicken or pork, while 1kg of feed produces 1kg of rainbow trout. While salmon, tuna, prawns, oysters, abalone and other high-end seafood are some of the most popular products of aquaculture today, tilapia, molluscs, carp, catfish and crustaceans are expected to grow dramatically by 2030. Much of this growth will come in the developing world, with more than a doubling from 2010 to 2030 in India, Latin America, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia, while aquaculture outputs will rise by between 50-100% in the same period in South Asia (excl. India), the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, helping to feed the rising populations in those regions. Our oceans give us much more than just fish and plants as a source of protein and micronutrients. We also benefit from their ability to fix atmospheric carbon by algae and micro-organisms, and to regulate climate and weather trends. Not to mention the mass transportation routes that carry the world’s shipping, but also pharmaceutical compounds and medical cures and wonderful holidays by the seaside. Eliminating Plastic Pollution in our Waters and Oceans Global plastic production rose from 1.7 million metric tons in 1950 to close to 311 million metric tons in 2014. It is expected to quadruple again by mid-century. A 2016 report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation predicted there would be more plastic than fish in the oceans by 2050 unless urgent action was taken. It is hard to think of products that don’t contain or aren’t wrapped in plastics. Plastics make

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future transportation more carbon efficient, keep food fresh to avoid wasting it and allow us to see through contact lenses — to just name a few benefits. But the negative effects on the environment have also been pervasive. A few decades of heavy use have spread plastics around the globe. Today, the remnants of our products can be found from the surface of oceans to deep-sea sediment, in lakes and rivers, even frozen in Arctic ice. The full scale of plastic pollution was revealed in 2014, when a study found there were more than 5 trillion pieces of plastic floating in our oceans. Plastics can be found in the stomachs of whales, fish and many other marine animals. Turtles suffocate when they confuse shopping bags with jellyfish, or drown when they get entangled in discarded nets. Seals get stuck in plastic rings from six-packs that slowly cut through their necks. In the middle of the Pacific, albatross chicks die, weakened from overconsumption of bottle caps and toys. Several different approaches to reducing plastics pollution are being trialled, from the local to the global. There are two main challenges- cleaning up the plastics that are already in our rivers, lakes and oceans, and stopping those plastics from getting into the water in the first place. The ultimate solution is to reduce, reuse, recycle, of course, but that will take time to become common practice around our planet. Many if you will by now have heard of the sixth continent forming in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, known as the north Pacific gyre. The heart of this floating garbage patch measures one million square kilometres, and has accumulated a vast soup of plastic waste, including large items and smaller broken-down micro plastics that can be eaten by fish and enter the food chain. One solution to cleaning this plastic up is to tackle the problem through a gigantic V-shaped boom, which uses sea currents to funnel floating rubbish into a cone. A prototype of the vulcanized rubber barrier has been successfully tested off the Netherlands, with a full-sized 100km (62-mile) barrier to be deployed by 2020 if further trials off Japan go well. While the plastics in our oceans need to be cleaned up, we also need to prevent so much entering the oceans in the first place. Better recycling, better product design and some legislation will all help, as well as some clever inventions at the local level that can prevent plastics from getting into our lakes and oceans in the first place. John Kellett, a Baltimore inventor who worked near the city’s heavily polluted harbour for many years, had an idea to catch the trash before it could reach the high seas. He realized that much of this plastic reaching the harbour came from the Jones Falls, a stream that accumulates trash as it winds through residential

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future neighbourhoods. With local partners, Kellett began working to construct a device that would skim garbage from the surface of the river before it could float downstream: a solar- and wind-powered, trash-intercepting waterwheel. The Inner Harbour Water Wheel was deployed in 2014 and has become a prominent city landmark. Resembling a giant nautilus, it has orange booms that cover the 35-meter-wide (40-yard-wide) mouth of the Jones Falls and directs items floating on the surface to a conveyor belt, where they are collected before they can reach the harbour. The trash is then emptied into a large container under the waterwheel’s white roof and hauled off. About three-quarters of the trash that would have floated into the inner Baltimore harbour is now being caught instead. A great example of how businesses and NGO’s can work together comes from sustainable carpet tile company Interface and the Zoological Society of London. In 1994 Interface committed to Mission Zero – a promise to eliminate any negative impact the company may have on the environment by 2020 – which was built on the fundamental belief that “there has to be a better way.” Through conversations with yarn supplier Aquafil, Interface learned that one of the world’s cleanest and most abundant sources of good quality, recyclable nylon is fishing nets. This sparked an idea for an inclusive business model that would benefit not only the environment, but also local fishing communities in the Philippines. To help make the idea a reality, Interface partnered with leading international conservation charity, the Zoological Society of London, and together they set up “Net-Works”. Now operating in 26 communities in the Philippines and 9 communities in Cameroon, Net-Works incentivises local people to collect and sell used fishing nets, and provide a sustainable supply of recycled nylon for Interface’s carpet tiles. So far over 100 metric tons of waste nets have been recycled, 900 families have been given access to finance, and 60 000 local people have benefitted from a cleaner environment. Interface CEO Dan Hendrix commented on how Net-Works has also created commercial benefits for Interface: “We’ve realised that our customers share our values. They appreciate the fact that we have an inclusive business model – it’s a significant driver of sales for us.” Farming and Food Sustainable Development Goal no 2iv aims to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. Food and agriculture accounts for about 5.9% of global GDP, along with one-third of our global greenhouse gas emissions. The largest source of GHG emissions within agriculture is enteric fermentation - when methane is produced by livestock during digestion

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future and released via belches - this accounted in 2011 for 39 percent of the sector's total GHG outputs. In 2012, it took 60 billion land animals to feed 7 billion humans. There are also many other variables to consider in choosing what to grow and eat, and when and how. For example, many people are aware that “food miles” are quite high for imported food. A recent analysis of US food emissionsv found 83% of carbon emissions in the food system result from food production, 5% from wholesaling and retailing food, and 11% from transporting it. This can lead to some counter-intuitive results. Take tomatoes from Spain shipped to Sweden, for example. Despite travelling a greater distance Spanish tomatoes imported to Sweden have a far smaller footprint than locally grown ones. This is because the emissions generated to heat and light greenhouses in northern Europe far exceed the transport emissions of bringing tomatoes in from Spain. Similar results have been found when comparing out of season English tomatoes to Spanish imports, although there are also some noble exceptions to this rule. For example both in Sweden and England it is possible to get winter tomatoes raised using waste heat, renewable energy and highly efficient hydroponic systems. Equally, lamb shipped to the UK from New Zealand actually generates less of an environmental footprint than UK lamb, because of the way Kiwi lambs graze on open fields of grass. Food shipped by sea can have 1/100th of the travel footprint of food shipped by air, meaning that bananas from Colombia shipped by sea to the UK are much more environmentally friendly than avocados flown in from Mexico. Given the scale of this impact, and the growing fragility of food security, it is absolutely vital that sustainable, even thriveable agriculture becomes the norm in the next few decades. How can that be made a reality? A sustainable food system is one that does not require chemicals, conserves energy and water, emphasizes local production, decreases inputs and utilizes resources more efficiently on site, values biodiversity and ecology, and works within our global natural resource limitations. In order for agriculture to be truly sustainable, it must incorporate the needs of people (farmers, farm families, communities, and human health), profit (a farming operation must be profitable or it will go out of business quickly), and the planet (farming practices must be ecologically sound). To begin with, there are numerous sustainable farming methods and practices that can help us achieve a much more sustainable food system. Most of them are well known and already practised widely, though they tend to be smaller in scale than industrial agriculture:

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

Permaculture is a design system that applies principles that are found in nature to the development of human settlements, allowing humanity to live in harmony with the natural world. Permaculture principles and ethics can be applied to almost any area of living, including local economies, energy systems, water supplies, housing systems, and food production. Foundational to producing food through permaculture is intention, design, and “working smarter not harder” to banish waste and to create efficient systems. There is a particular emphasis on the use of perennial crops such as fruit trees, nut trees, and shrubs that all function together in a designed system that mimics the how plants in a natural ecosystem would function;

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Biodynamics incorporates ecological and holistic growing practices, emphasizing the importance of reducing the use of off-site inputs (such as importing soil fertility) by generating the necessary health and fertility for food production onsite. Biodynamic practices have been applied to farms, gardens, vineyards, and other forms of agriculture;

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Hydroponics and Aquaponics involve the growing of plants without soil, nourishing the plants through specialized nutrients that are added to water. In hydroponic systems, crops are grown with the roots directly in a mineral solution or with the roots in an inert medium like gravel or perlite. Aquaponics combines the raising of aquatic animals (such as fish) with the growing of hydroponic crops. In aquaponic systems, the water containing the waste material from the aquaculture fish is used to nourish the hydroponic plants. After the water is used by the plants, the water is then recirculated back into the system to be reused by the fish.

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Urban Agriculture: The need to localize our food system requires that we grow food much closer to home, including in cities. Since most of the global population is predicted to live in cities in the future, there is a tremendous opportunity for urban agriculture to make a significant positive impact moving forward when it comes to how we produce our food around the world;

Today, many innovative and sustainable growing techniques are already being used in cities, including backyard farms and gardens, community gardens, rooftop farms, growing crops in urban greenhouses, indoor hydroponic farms, and perhaps even growing food inside urban farm towers someday; •

Agroforestry and Food Forests involve the growth of trees and shrubs amongst crops or grazing land. Agroforestry systems can combine both

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future agriculture and forestry practices for long-lasting, productive, and diverse land use when approached sustainably; Patterned after natural forest ecosystems, food forests (also known as “forest gardens”) are designed permaculture systems that consist of a multi-layered edible “forest.” Such a “forest” is composed almost entirely of perennial food plants, including a canopy of tall and dwarf fruit and nut trees, a fruit shrub layer, layers of perennial herbs, mushrooms and vegetables at the ground level, climbing plants, and root vegetables underground. Food forest systems are very productive, due to both the diversity of plants that are growing there, and all of the plants within the system that are taking advantage of each existing niche within the system; •

Polycultures and Crop Rotation. By diversifying the crops that are grown on an area of land and through the rotation of crops that are grown, farmers can greatly reduce the opportunity for disease and pests to take hold. These practices also lead to reductions in the need to apply fertilizers and pesticides;

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Natural Animal Raising. Allowing animals to graze and live in pasture is much healthier for animals than confined animal feeding operations are. Livestock grazing and pasture systems also help to prevent erosion, build soil through the growth of pasture grasses, sequesters carbon emissions in the soil from the atmosphere, improves plant growth and diversity, and conserves wildlife habitat³. Holistic management, pioneered by Alan Savoury and favoured by Prince Charles in the UK, is a god example of a movement that is gaining popularity, helping to sequester carbon and maintain water in the soil;

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Natural Pest and Weed Management. Farmers and other growers can release and provide habitat for populations of beneficial insects (such as ladybugs, lacewings, and fly parasites), as well as other organisms (such as birds and bats) that will serve as predators of crop-eating pest insects. Mulching, groundcovers, and manual control. Farmers and other growers can dramatically reduce the growth of weeds and conserve soil moisture through the use of mulching and ground covers. Often, these practices greatly reduce, or in some cases, can even eliminate, the need to apply herbicides to kill weeds. For smaller farming operations, weeds can be easily controlled by hand if these techniques have been used.

Let’s take a look at some examples of these kinds of approaches in action. Integrated Food in Inner Cities Agriculture and urban habitats make strange bedfellows, with arable land often sacrificed to build high-rise apartments and new roads. Yet there is growing trend towards urban agriculture, where otherwise unused space is used to grow

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future vegetables, herbs and other plants. Growing greens and salads, however, does not scale up well without some science and technology embedded into the process. Raising fish to eat in cities is a very new idea. Aquaculture outside of oceans and lakes normally requires expensive water filtering systems to maintain a supply of fresh water to the fish. A genial American giant, ex-basketball player Will Allen of Growing Power in Milwaukee, has worked out how to use plants to do the filtering, while also providing free nutrients to the plants from bottom of the fish tanks. As they say in the delightful video about this win-win-win project, not only do greens like aragula, watercress and perch go together to make a tasty meal, they also grow together in the greenhouses at the Growing Power projectvi . After a career as a professional basketball player and corporate executive, Will Allen started Growing Power in 1993 in Milwaukee, linking up local teens to his farm endeavor located a half mile away from the city's largest housing project. He hired the teens to work in his store and renovate greenhouses to grow food for their community, which was a food desert -- and Growing Power has flourished since. Today, Growing Power has incubated farms in both urban and rural settings as well as greenhouses and community gardens in Wisconsin and Illinois, providing not only fresh, affordable food produced in a sustainable manner, but also jobs, training, and community outreach. Every year, Growing Power provides more than a million pounds of greens, fruits, and vegetables. It also has aquaponics systems that produce perch and tilapia. In addition, Growing Power produces its own high-quality soil using vermicomposting, yielding nutrient-rich compost that blocks an estimated 1,500 pounds of food and organic waste from ending up in landfills. Alongside the boom in urban farming start-ups is the growing number of grassroots non-profit community groups looking to turn vacant lots into local food production hot spots, often marrying issues of nutrition with economic development. Urban Tilth, City Slicker Farms or the Green Bronx Machine, all grow affordable, high-quality food on underused land — and manage to create job or help alleviate food deserts in the process. Vertical Farming Cities also are starting to play along, with officials in California cities such as Oakland, Sacramento and San Francisco actually moving to ease regulatory requirements or add incentives for urban farming. Edenworks — the brainchild of a bioengineer and an architect — takes the field to new heights. The Brooklyn© Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future based company has raised $1 million to build rooftop aquaponic greenhouses that grow organic greens, mushrooms and herbs with the help of manure from tilapia and prawns also grown in the mini-farm, echoing the success of Will Allen’s Growing Power projects. “We’re seeing distributed power happening through solar and wind, and the next thing that really needs to become distributed is food production,” co-founder Jason Green told TechCrunch this month. “There’s a huge amount of energy that goes into the distribution of food, and things are grown for transportability, not for quality, or flavour or nutrition.” Sensors within the greenhouse also collect data on environmental conditions and the wastewater from the sea creatures, providing information to growers about which operation components need attention. Vertical farms are immune to weather, so crops can be grown year-round under optimal conditions. One acre of skyscraper floor produces the equivalent of 10 to 20 traditional soil-based acres. Employing clean-room technologies means no pesticides or herbicides, so there's no agricultural runoff. The fossil fuels now used for ploughing, fertilizing, seeding, weeding, harvesting, and delivery are gone as well. On top of all that, we can reforest old farmland as parkland and slow the loss of biodiversity. Companies like FarmedHere, Green Sense, and groups like MIT's CityFARM are making strides in the field. Foodprinting, In-Vitro Meat and Other Delicacies Tissue engineering to grow cultured animal products in a lab, including leather and food, are multiplying. The latter will be grown using animal cells so they won't be meats in the conventional sense, but something entirely new. Their vision is to do this at scale and dramatically reduce the environmental impact of meat production. If successful, cultured animal products have huge advantages: 99% less land, 96% less water, 96% fewer greenhouse gases, and 45% less energy. Companies like 3D Systems, Natural Machines, Print2Taste, Modern Meadow and others are experimenting with 3D printed food. While 3D printing in chocolates and sugars is well underway, we'll soon see 3D printed starches, proteins (and even new proteins like algae and insects) and spices. Regenerating Rainforests, Coral Reefs and other Ecosystems Rainforests - are the lungs of our planet. The Amazon in South America is the largest, most diverse tropical rainforest on Earth, covering an area of seven million square kilometres. It accounts for more than half of the planet’s remaining rainforest and is home to more than half the world's species of plants and animals.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future But over the last 40 years, this lush and generative ecosystem has been increasingly threatened by deforestation. Clearing of the forest began in the 1960s and reached a peak in the 90s when an area the size of Spain was cleared, primarily to make space for cattle and soybean production. About 38 million acres of original rain forest are being cut down every year. Globally, one-fifth of the world’s carbon emissions come from the destruction of rain forests. Although deforestation rates have now declined, the forest is still gradually disappearing, reducing the region’s scale and biodiversity. But this felling also has an impact on the planet as a whole because the forest also plays a critical role in cleaning the air we breathe. It does this by sucking up the global emissions of carbon dioxide from things like cars, planes and power stations to name just a few. Without this “carbon sink” the world’s ability to lock up carbon will be reduced, compounding the effects of global warming. Five billion tonnes of carbon dioxide are captured by the Amazon rainforest every year. In 2005, according to that year’s “State of the World’s Forests Report” by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, there were an estimated 2.1 billion acres of potential replacement forest growing in the tropics — an area almost as large as the United States. The new forest included secondary forest on former farmland and so-called degraded forest, land that has been partly logged or destroyed by natural disasters like fires and then left to nature. In 2009, at United Nations climate talks in Poland, the world’s environment ministers agreed to a new program through which developing countries will be rewarded for preventing deforestation. Sustainable Development Goal 15 sets out to protect, restore and promote the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss. Reforestation experiments are ongoing in many parts of the tropical world: in Malaysia, Costa Rica, Brazil, Panama, Puerto Rico, tropical Australia and other locales. Some are trying to promote regeneration of timber species, whereas others are trying to yield a broad array of ecosystem services such as carbon storage, maintenance of water flow and quality, and biodiversity. These kind of experiments tell us a lot about rebuilding a rainforest and what we can do to help forests recover their biodiversity, carbon storage and other ecological functions in as short a time as possible. Reynaldo Ochoa, a resident of the Peruvian rainforest used to cut and burn forest for farming like everyone else back in the 1980’s. He soon learned about permaculture farming, however, and began to adopt its methods on his own land, with great results. He uses a multitude of crops in one place which work in a © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future sustainable manner, replacing nutrients with nitrogen fixing plants and trees while having a multi-layered crop yield; he grows fruit trees with yucca and a number of other fruits and vegetables. He also began planting soft and hardwood trees. He found that the shade the trees provided actually helped his crop yield as well as protecting the land from strong winds and the damaging effects of soil erosion. People heard about his system and asked for advice. Reynaldo first began on a small scale until the Crees Foundation gave him the support and investment that he needed to branch out. He now advises people across the region about agroforestry supplying, seeds, saplings and labour to help plant the new agroforestry plots. Since he began he has planted over 30,000 trees. Malnutrition is also a problem for inhabitants of towns like Salvacion where the people are migrants from the high Andes. Their diet is low in fruit and vegetables, and this can lead to malnutrition and illness, especially in the young. Reynaldo and the foundation begun a 'bio garden' program in 2008 helping teach local families how to grow their own vegetable gardens year round, giving them a chance at a better diet and a sustainable income through the sale of the excess. They get expert training, have the garden built and planted for them and then they are helped and monitored throughout the year. In order to protect the forest and its diverse wildlife you need to engage the people in better practices which serve their needs and the forest alike. My own first walk through a rainforest was in Malaysia in 1992, before the first Rio conference. It was an unforgettable experience. The incredible sounds of the insects buzzing, the bird orchestras chirping and cawing, and the monkeys and other creatures howling was spine-tingling. Yet to get to the rainforests we had to drive past many miles of depressing palm oil plantations and logging trucks full of old growth rainforest trees. And sadly, many decades later the situation is much worse in that particular part of Borneo. Yet there is also cause for hope in Malaysia and Indonesia. In 1926, one of the first reforestation experiments in Malaysia was begun on a former mining site by the British government. The 500 hectare area just 16 km north of Kuala Lumpur was planted with nurse trees that would provide shade and improve the soil before the planting of large, hardwood rainforest trees valuable as timber. Today the site is fully covered with many tree species, which to the untrained eye appears to be multilayer vegetation, with no distinct differentiation between planted and natural species. Initially around 15 tree species were planted, including fast-, medium- and slowgrowing timbers, but now the area has more than 70 species of trees. The forest today looks very similar to mature rainforestâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;it has much of the structure of

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future established forest, but what it lacks is the enormous ecological diversity that can take up to 1 000 years to regrow. The good news? Newly grown rainforests can absorb 11 times as much carbon from the atmosphere as old-growth forests, a study published in Nature has shownvii . Researchers have produced a map showing regions in Latin America where regrowing rainforests would deliver the greatest benefits. Between 1990 – 2015, 93 countries recorded net forest losses (totalling 242 million hectares), but 88 countries had net gains in forest area (totalling almost 113 million hectares) (FAO, 2015a). The regional distribution of this net increase in forest area varies across regions. In Asia, 24 countries experienced a net increase in forest area in the period 1990–2015, amounting to 73.1 million hectares; this was due mainly to large-scale afforestation programmes in China. In Europe, 35 countries recorded a net increase in forest area, totalling 21.5 million hectares. Thirteen countries in Africa, eight countries in Oceania, six countries in North and Central America, and two countries in South America also had net increases in forest area over the periodviii . Forests and trees support sustainable agriculture. They stabilize soils and climate, regulate water flows, give shade and shelter, and provide a habitat for pollinators and the natural predators of agricultural pests. They also contribute to the food security of hundreds of millions of people, for whom they are important sources of food, energy and income. Yet, agriculture remains the major driver of deforestation globally, and agricultural, forestry and land policies are often at odds. The State of the World’s Forests (SOFO) 2016 shows that it is possible to increase agricultural productivity and food security while halting or even reversing deforestation, highlighting the successful efforts of Costa Rica, Chile, the Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Tunisia and Viet Nam. Integrated land-use planning is the key to balancing land uses, underpinned by the right policy instruments to promote both sustainable forests and agriculture. This is wonderful progress, but we are certainly not “out of the woods” quite just yet, as we need forests around the world to regrow to increase the amount of CO2 absorbed to counter the steadily rising level of CO2 in our atmosphere, currently above 400 ppm from pre-industrial levels of 250 ppm. Coral Reefs - In addition to tourism, reefs perform a number of important functions: they supply the bait fish which is used to fish for tuna and other large species to the fishing industry, as many fish and sea creatures choose to spawn on

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future reefs. Reefs offer a protected locale where eggs and young fish and sea creatures are safe from predators. They are the nurseries of the sea. Right now, wide swaths of the world’s coral are being bleached, thanks to warm water temperatures brought on by climate change and El Niño. As of 2016, 93 percent of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia was bleached. This bleaching has stressed corals in the Great Barrier Reef so heavily that over a third have died. Stanford scientists recently published a study that highlighted 15 coral reef “bright spots” around the world, places where reefs were, surprisingly, healthy and teeming with fish. Humans managed most of these reefs, the study found: specifically, “strong local involvement in how the reefs were managed, local ownership rights, and traditional management practices” were all apparent in these reefs. Other studies have found that protecting certain kinds of fish can be key to keeping coral reefs resilient: limiting or banning the capture of coral grazers like urchins and parrotfish has been found to be extremely effective in keeping coral reefs resilient. Conservation efforts — protecting coral reefs from being overfished or over-visited are vital. Scientists from Stanford published a study that highlighted 15 coral reef “bright spots” around the world, places where reefs were, surprisingly, healthy and teeming with fish. Humans managed most of these reefs, the study found: specifically, “strong local involvement in how the reefs were managed, local ownership rights, and traditional management practices” were all apparent in these reefs. Other studies have found that protecting certain kinds of fish can be key to keeping coral reefs resilient: limiting or banning the capture of coral grazers like urchins and parrotfish has been found to be extremely effective in keeping coral reefs resilient. But these conservation measures aren’t enough to protect corals from bleaching in the long term. For that, the world needs to curb its greenhouse gas emissions, which in addition to raising ocean temperatures are also increasing the ocean’s acidity, making it difficult for corals and other calcium carbonate creatures to grow. Although reef corals are highly sensitive to heat, some populations resistant to climate change have recently been identified. In less than 2 years, acclimatization achieves the same heat tolerance that one would expect from strong natural selection over many generations for these long-lived organisms. Results of recent scientific research show both short-term acclimatory and longer-term adaptive acquisition of climate resistance. Adding these adaptive abilities to ecosystem models is likely to slow predictions of demise for coral reef ecosystems.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The coral reefs in the Florida Keys have been declining for decades, with an increase in coral diseases and coral bleaching, and a decrease in living coral cover. The reefs have also been impacted by ship groundings and hurricanes. In these cases, there is a need for new colonies to restore reefs following a disturbance. Developing reef restoration techniques requires multiple colonies of a range of coral species impacted by groundings to evaluate the effectiveness of different restoration strategies. The exciting developments in the Keys are based on the ability of the labs to “micro-fragment” corals to the size of a thumbnail, then replant them at the base of the dead reef. What they discovered was that coral regenerated in this way grew 25 to 40 times faster than the larger corals. Researchers are optimistic that the large reefs off the Florida Keys can be regrown in decades rather than centuries. Corals from reef pools with wide temperature fluctuations resist stress better than corals from less extreme pools. Nevertheless, corals transplanted into the hotter and more variable conditions soon acquired thermal tolerance. Researchers found that the tougher specimens produced more of certain proteins, such as the tumour necrosis factor receptor superfamily, which protected them from the effects of heat. Ramping up heat shock and transport proteins yielded heat tolerance far more rapidly than mutation and adaptation. Hopefully, this ability will allow some mitigation of climate change on coral reefsix. While it is clear that fossil fuel use needs to be cut back dramatically to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, our conservation and regeneration efforts on land and sea give us some real hope that the world’s most endangered ecosystems will both regenerate and adapt with our help, ensuring that the magic of rainforests, coral reefs and other wild places will be there for our grandchildren to enjoy. Spurring deeper innovation and step-changes to ensure a healthy, thriving global economy and food for all must be a priority for each one of us. The links between Pathway Four and Pathways Five and Six are critical: we have to scale up many synergistic innovations into mainstream use in renewable energy, zero/low energy buildings, along with thriveable habitats/cities with zero emission mobility systems and a fully circular economy where not a particle is wasted, in order to be able to keep global warming below 2 degrees and reduce our global footprint to the resources of a single planet. Pathways One to Three are foundational, as unless we shift our values, lifestyles, the way we develop our people and businesses and design and finance our governance and economic systems to be multi-capital and thriveable, we are unlikely to be able to scale the synergistic innovations in Pathways Four to Six in time to meet our global goals.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY FIVE – RESILIENT HABITATS In order to conserve and regenerate the vitality of the earth’s key ecosystems, we are going to have to transition our energy and power industries from fossil fuels to renewables globally within the next few decades. Smarter buildings with wiser users and a zero net-energy standard for all new buildings must become the norm, together with a massive retro-fitting program of existing buildings to make them much more energy-efficient. Sustainable Development Goal 11 aims to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. By 2030, it is projected that 6 out of 10 people will be urban dwellers. Despite numerous planning challenges, well-managed cities and other human settlements can be incubators for innovation and ingenuity and key drivers of sustainable development. However, as more people migrate to cities in search of a better life and urban populations grow, housing issues intensify. Already in 2014, 30 per cent of the urban population lived in slum-like conditions; in sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion was 55 per cent, the highest of any region. Globally, more than 880 million people were living in slums in 2014. This estimate does not include people in inadequate or unaffordable housing (defined as costing more than 30 per cent of total monthly household income). Managing solid waste is also problematic in densely populated areas. In many developing regions, less than half of solid waste is safely disposed of. As per capita waste generation continues to rise, the collection and safe disposal of solid waste will continue to require serious attention. Urban air pollution also challenged cities around the world, causing illness and millions of premature deaths annually. Around half the global urban population is exposed to air pollution levels at least 2.5 times higher than maximum standards set by the World Health Organization.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The quest for sustainable and coordinated urban development starts with national policies and regional development plans. As of 2015, 142 countries had a national urban policy in place or under development. Those countries are home to 75 per cent of the world’s urban population. Worldwide, about 1.2 billion people have no access to electricity and the development benefits it brings, and 1 billion more have access only to unreliable electricity networks. Nearly 3 billion people rely on traditional biomass (such as wood and charcoal) for cooking and heating. Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. This lack of modern energy services stifles incomegenerating activities and hampers the provision of basic services such as health care and education. In addition, smoke from polluting and inefficient cooking, lighting, and heating devices kills an estimated four million people a year and causes a range of chronic illnesses and other negative health impacts. These emissions are also important drivers of climate change and local environmental degradation. The global economy will require big investments in infrastructure as populations and the middle class grow — especially in energy systems and cities. The demand for new infrastructure could top $90 trillion over 2015-2030, according to The New Climate Economy’s 2014 report, Better Growth, Better Climate. The drive to cut carbon emissions changes the mix of this spending. Clean energy, efficient power grids and energy-efficient buildings are on the menu. The energy and transport sectors make up two-thirds of the needs, a 2016 McKinsey report estimates. Water and waste take up a fifth. See the chart below. Most of the spending is needed in emerging markets. Investments in renewable energy and electricity systems in the developing world are now outpacing that of the developed world. As the price of solar, wind and biofuels continues to drop and offer savings on existing energy sources, these investments are effectively a “no-brainer” for these countries. In 2015, Kenya and Nicaragua respectively met 90% and 50% of their electricity needs through renewables (the latter has goals for a 90% transition by 2020). Bangladesh is already serving 25 million people with solar energy; India just announced plans to power 18 million more homes with solar by 2022; and the Philippines — which is already powering a third of its population with renewables — recently announced the seventh largest solar project in the world. China, meanwhile, is now employing nearly a million more workers in renewables than fossil fuels.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Emerging economies are also aggressively pursuing green energy investments to build future energy infrastructure. In 2015, for the first time in history, the world’s poorest countries invested more in renewables than the world’s richest countries. In 2016, Kenya announced plans for their nation’s first green bonds, and Nepal announced it is seeking investors for $20 billion in renewables. The Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index just declared Africa, Asia and Latin America as the best places for renewable energy investments. This year, solar energy is becoming as competitive and affordable as fossil fuels in some locations. In May, the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority received five bids for generating energy at under three cents per kilowatt-hour. Mexico received bids of about four cents per kilowatt-hour (without subsidies). And Chile is giving energy away for free at certain times of the year. Currently, our civilization consumes around 17.7 Terawatts of power taken from all sources of energy, namely oil, coal, natural gas and alternative energies such as solar, wind, hydropower and others. 17.7 Terawatts is a big number. To give you an idea, 1 Terawatt can power 10 billion, 100 watt bulbs at the same time! Depending upon how much fossil fuel money they take from the oil, coal and gas industries, you will get very different energy scenarios for the future. While we need not be distracted here by forecasts made with those close ties to fossil fuels, it comes as no surprise that they predict that the world will have to rely on fossil fuels well past 2050. Improving on the Paris Agreement While there is much to celebrate in getting nearly 200 nations to commit to regulating for and investing in renewable energy to keep global warming below 2 degrees, the sad fact is that what was actually committed to in Paris in December 2015 and ratified in 2016, was a set of plans that will not reduce CO2 emissions from the 30 gigatonnes currently emitted to the 10 gigatonnes maximum that can be emitted in 2050, to zero gigatonnes emitted by 2100. The energy mix committed to by 2040 under the Paris agreement will not limit global warming to 2 degrees, even with the following improvements: •

37% of power generation from renewables compared with 23% today;

•

150 million electric vehicles on the road compared with 1.3 million today;

•

50% growth in natural gas overtaking coal in the global energy mix;

•

103.5 million barrels per day of oil consumption in 2040 compared with 93.5 million barrels per day in 2015;

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

a .05% annual increase in carbon emissions.

In order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, which was agreed to at Paris as the real goal to be attained in order to avert runaway global warming, and to be achieved by annual “ratcheting up” of existing commitments by each nation, it would be prudent to remove fossil fuels from the energy mix completely by 2050. As we saw at the beginning of this book, that this goal is achievable, providing the world does not continue to be hijacked by the fossil fuel industry. The reverse takeover of the local, state and federal governments in the USA by the fossil fuel and chemical industries achieved in the 2016 elections is a warning to all of us of the sheer weight of money and power this industry is prepared to throw at maintaining its near monopoly on the global supply of energy, and the obscene profits realised in the course of that folly. Step one is to eliminate the $5 trillion in subsidies to fossil fuel companies, paid out each year by governments worldwide. Those who are independent of the fossil fuel industry offer much more plausible scenarios, related to the current progress being made in renewable energy technology, production, transmission and storage. For example, over the past three years, the World Energy Council has explored the likely futures and outcomes for what they call the “Grand Transition”x. Their findings indicate that: •

the world’s primary energy demand growth will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies;

•

demand for electricity will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers;

•

the phenomenal rise of solar and wind energy will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new opportunities and challenges for energy systems;

•

demand peaks for coal and oil have the potential to take the world from “stranded assets” to “stranded resources”;

•

transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise future energy systems;

•

limiting global warming to no more than a 2°c increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices;

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

global cooperation, sustainable economic growth, and technology innovation are needed to balance the energy trilemma.

The good news is that the energy industry is facing decades of transformation, with the major uncertainty being just how fast renewable energy and low carbon mobility systems will take root in the fabric of our global economy. Much of this will in turn depend upon the regulatory regimes that make carbon based systems of any kind expensive, and also the amount and effectiveness of investment in renewable and low carbon mobility systems. The challenge to the world’s industry leaders is to maintain the current integrity of energy systems worldwide while steering towards this new transformed future. This requires new policies, strategies, and the consideration of novel and risky investments. High impact areas of consideration for industry leaders and areas for action include: •

Reassess capital allocations and strategies;

•

Target geographies and new growth markets in Asia, MENA, and Sub-Saharan Africa;

•

Implement new business models that expand the energy value chain and exploit the disruption;

•

Develop decarbonisation policies;

•

Address socioeconomic implications of climate change policies.

Leaders are faced with important decisions in the context of high stakes political, financial, technological, and social uncertainty about the future of energy. The decisions taken in the next 5 to 10 years, in response to these and other implications, will have profound effects on the development of the energy sector in the coming decades. Sustainable Development Goal 9 focuses on building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation. This goal is very closely intertwined with SDG 11 that aims to build resilient and sustainable habitats, as resilient habitats cannot come about without resilient infrastructure. As the structure of world economies shifts to less energy-intensive industries and countries implement policies for enhanced energy efficiency, almost all regions have shown a reduction in carbon intensity of GDP. Global carbon dioxide emissions per unit of value added showed a steady decline between 1990 and 2013, a decrease of about 30 per cent.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Innovation and the creation of new and more sustainable industries are spurred by investments in research and development. Global expenditure on research and development as a proportion of GDP stood at 1.7 per cent in 2013. However, this figure masks wide disparities. Expenditure on research and development was 2.4 per cent of GDP for developed regions, 1.2 per cent for developing regions, and below 0.3 per cent for the least developed countries and landlocked developing countries. The number of researchers per 1 million inhabitants showed a similar pattern. While the global average was 1,083 researchers per 1 million inhabitants, the ratio ranged from 65 per 1 million in the least developed countries to 3,641 per 1 million in developed regions. Total official flows for economic infrastructure in developing regions reached $59.5 billion in 2014. The main sectors receiving assistance were transport and energy. Infrastructure and economic development also rely on information and communications technology. Mobile cellular services have spread rapidly around the world, allowing people in previously unconnected areas to join the global information society. By 2015, the percentage of the population living in areas covered by mobile broadband networks stood at 69 per cent globally. In rural areas, the share was only 29 per cent. While all these global trends are important to understand as a baseline for our own individual activities and decisions, it helps if we can develop our own frameworks to help us develop our own thinking and decision-making in our lives and professions. At a simple level, for example, we could decide that we should invest in solar panels or some form of renewable energy for our home. There are many different options in this regard, so we would need to inform ourselves about the local conditions and economics in some detail before deciding this is a viable decision. There are several variables one needs to consider: •

how many hours of sunshine per annum you get where you live- solar panels use the energy from daylight to produce electricity so panels do not need direct sunlight to work, though the more direct sunlight, the better. (It is photons in natural daylight that is converted by solar panels cells to produce electricity);

•

the latitude you live at- if you live between the tropics of Capricorn and Cancerxi, you will get twice as much direct sunlight and hence roughly twice as much power than if you live north or south of these latitudes;

•

the angle of your roof - if you have a flat roof, for example, the panels will need to be tilted to at least 10 degrees, and if you live in the southern

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future hemisphere your panels need to face north, and vice versa for those in the northern hemisphere; •

any local subsidies or benefits you might get for installing solar, usually called “feed-in tariffs”, which can reduce the cost by around 30% on average, depending on which country/state/city you live in.

In my own case, I am very happy with the solar panels on my roof here in a Mediterranean climate where we get 320 days of sunshine a year, along with a French government subsidy, which means that even though the panels were installed in 2009, the revenue I am guaranteed over 20 years is more than double the cost of installing the panels and associated equipment. Since 2009, however, the cost of solar panels has fallen by nearly 75% relative to the power they generate, so I would be making a profit and helping reduce carbon emissions even without a subsidy if I were to install new panels today. And if you buy the solar roof tiles designed by Tesla, you might even get better results. The Tesla Phenomenon You may have heard of Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla. Musk’s passions include space exploration and the discovery of renewable and clean energy sources. Tesla’s plans are for total clean energy integration – a one step carbon reduction process that involves pairing solar panels with a Tesla electric vehicle. The new Tesla solar roofing product is part of a plan to dominate building integrated photovoltaics. Picture a new home, covered in solar tiles that generate enough electricity to power both the house and the car. The Tesla Powerwall - a rechargeable lithium ion battery weighing roughly 200 pounds that can be easily mounted on any wall, solves the problem of obtaining power when the sun goes down. Right now all of these options can only be afforded by the wealthy, so will occupy a narrow market niche for the time being. Yet Musk has a plan for that too – cue the Tesla Gigafactory. The name Gigafactory comes from the factory’s planned annual battery production capacity of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh). “Giga” is a unit of measurement that represents “billions”. One GWh is the equivalent of generating (or consuming) one billion watts for one hour—one million times that of one kWh. To give you some idea of how much power that is, it would take about 500 Gifactories to meet current world energy usage of 17 terawatts. In order to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, electric vehicles need to be produced in sufficient volume to force change in the automobile industry. With a planned production rate of 500,000 cars per year in the latter half © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future of this decade, Tesla alone will require today’s entire worldwide production of lithium ion batteries. The Tesla Gigafactory was born of necessity and will supply enough batteries to support their projected vehicle demand. In cooperation with Panasonic and other strategic partners, the Gigafactory will produce batteries for significantly less cost using economies of scale, innovative manufacturing, reduction of waste, and the simple optimization of locating most manufacturing process under one roof. Tesla expects to drive down the per kilowatt hour (kWh) cost of their battery pack by more than 30 percent. The Gigafactory will also be powered by renewable energy sources, with the goal of achieving net zero energy. By 2018, the Gigafactory will reach full capacity and produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. Tesla expects that Gigafactory 1 will reduce the production cost for their electric vehicle battery and Powerwall and Powerpack packs by 30%. Its projected capacity for 2018 is 50 GWh/yr of battery packs and its final capacity upon completion of entire factory is 150 GWh/yr. This would enable Tesla to produce 1,500,000 cars per year. In the National Geographic documentary "Before the Flood" starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Musk gives the Hollywood star a tour of the huge battery production facility. "The fossil fuel industry is the biggest industry in the world," Musk tells DiCaprio on the factory floor. "They have more money and more influence than any other sector. The more that there can be a sort of popular uprising against that, the better, but I think the scientific fact of the matter is we are unavoidably headed towards some level of harm." Musk says the whole point of the massive facility is to make batteries that can be used to store renewable energy like solar more affordable. He envisions villages in the developing world that are not yet connected to the electrical grid being able to skip the grid entirely by jumping straight to a solar and battery system. But Musk is also trying to set an example for industries across the world with the gigafactory. "We actually did the calculations to figure out what it would take to transition the whole world to sustainable energy... and you'd need 100 gigafactories," he tells DiCaprio. In November 2016 Elon Musk stated his intention that 'Gigafactory 2' would be located in Europe and manufacture both batteries and complete cars in a location to be chosen in 2017.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The Mega-Challenge of Renewable Energy While the world currently consumes 17,7 terawatts of energy a year, more than 90% of that energy still comes from fossil fuels, down from 97% in 1970. How can we get to a world powered 100% by renewable energy in 2050 from there? While renewable energy is gathering speed in some countries, there is clearly a huge amount of work to do. Denmark is producing 43% of its energy from renewables, and it aims for 70% by 2020. Germany, at more than 25% now and 30% soon, is going for 40% to 45% clean power by 2025, 55% to 60% by 2035, and an incredible 80% by 2050. The 48 members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum made the decision to use only renewable energy by 2050. The Climate Vulnerable Forum was set up in 2009 and is made up of countries that are disproportionately affected by climate change. Members, including the likes of Ethiopia, Marshall Islands and Bangladesh, agreed to make their energy production 100 per cent renewable "as rapidly as possible" and by between 2030 and 2050 at the latest. The United States, with about 13% renewable energy generation, has some catching up to do, though California (where some developers are incorporating solar into every house they build) points the way forward. The Solar Energy Industries Association reports that the solar market in the U.S. grew by 41% in 2013, and that it made up 20% of all new generating capacity in that year. The US National Renewable Energy Labs predicts that renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050. Sadly, much of this could be under threat thanks to the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the USA. China, however, has laid down the gauntlet on renewable energy. Despite many challenges, China is already the world’s leading source of renewable investment, as well as the largest solar manufacturer. China unveiled its 13th Five Year Plan on energy development, with the most farreaching aims yet. First off, it cancelled plans for 103 coal fired power plants, which was announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2017. China exceeded most of its 2015 low-carbon energy and decarbonisation targets and has made its 2020 energy and emissions targets more ambitious over time. It plans to reduce “emissions intensity” (the volume of emissions produced relative to economic activity) by more than other major economies. Set against the background of other major emitters, particularly the United States’ potential © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future backtracking from its climate commitments, China’s continued strengthening of its own targets looks even more remarkable. China plans to invest $361 billion in renewable energy generation by 2020. The investment reflects Beijing's focus on cutting the use of fossil fuels and combating pollution. A renewable China is definitely possible by 2050. Both China and India demonstrate what is possible where there is both foresight and political will combined with wise industry leaders. India is taking the lead in creating a country powered by renewable energy by replacing expensive imported coal with affordable solar power in just six years' time. As a solution to the ballooning of energy consumption, India's government has recently updated its National Solar Mission Target. By 2022, the country aims to achieve 175 GW of renewable power, including 100 GW of solar power. This means that India's capacity for installing renewable energy needs to be seven times bigger, from 3 GW to 20 GW per year. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by creating ground-mounted photovoltaic systems, India will have an energy source that's more affordable than imported coal. By using the levelised cost of energy (LCOE), solar energy will be more economic than using coal. Apart from giving access to cheap electricity, solar energy will also generate more than 675,000 jobs in the Indian solar industry. As a result India now plans to meet its Paris agreement commitments three years early, by getting rid of fossil fuels for energy production. Non-fossil fuels will produce 60% of India’s electricity by 2027, a 20% improvement on targets set in the Paris agreement. Hundreds of billions will be invested in wind and solar. As an example, the world’s biggest solar power plant opened in Tamil Nadu state in 2016. Smart Grids and Intelligent Buildings Most of the readers of this book live and work in buildings where you switch lights, appliances, heating/cooling systems on and off with your own hands. Some will have a thermostat that regulates the temperature summer and winter plus automatic sensors for lights, others will have to open or close windows to warm up or cool down and lack even central heating. Whether you live in the developed or developing world, you probably also source your electricity, gas or other fuels from a provider who relies on fossil fuels if you are in North America, China or India. In Europe, California and a few other places, you might have a choice of a green energy supplier. Most existing buildings are not “intelligent”, but “dumb”. This unfortunately results in a major

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future wastage of energy and high bills that can readily be avoided once we are aware of the greener options open to us. If you live in a developing country in Africa, Central/South America or Asia in transition from Era 2 to 3, you are likely to spend between 30 to 50% of your household energy on cooking, often using fossil fuels that are both unhealthy and generate high carbon emissions. Buildings and the building sector have a major impact not only on economic and social activities but also on the natural and built environment. The sector is responsible for about 30% of primary energy use in OECD countries, and about 10% in developing countries. Promoting building energy efficiency can increase jobs, support economic development and lead to reduced energy consumption. For example, when green building material or equipment is installed instead of a typical product, that results in an immediate investment today, rather than continued purchasing of often imported fossil fuels for years to come. In order to “Decarbonise the Power Sector”, we need not only renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, biofuels, geo-thermal, hydro-electricity and nonpolluting nuclear, but also a “smart grid” which can distribute and use the available electricity as economically and intelligently as possible. Smart grids are Era 4 electric power grids that enhance the efficiency and reliability of the infrastructure required to power modern buildings and civilisations. They integrate automated controls, high-power converters, Internet based communications systems, sensing and metering technologies, and sophisticated energy management techniques that optimise the whole grid. Smart grids and intelligent buildings will be a powerful force for good in helping us keep global warming below 2 degrees and also save money on energy bills for everyone, while keeping us well lit, at the right temperature and able to cook, clean, play and entertain ourselves in thriveable habitats. When the eastern seaboard of North America went dark in summer 2003, it captured the attention of both the media and Capitol Hill. It became evident that the blackout was a symptom of what many have called the ‘perfect energy storm.’ The problem began with an aging electric infrastructure that had not been updated in half a century. The U.S. Department of Energy projects a 40% increase in electricity demand over the next 20 years that will cost utilities a projected $3 trillion, including the impact of carbon trading schemes. An initiative created under the DOE Office of Electricity and Energy Reliability, GridWise, aims to stimulate the development

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future and adoption of an intelligent energy systems, or smart grids, to make the U.S. electric system more reliable and efficient. Meanwhile, at the University of New Mexico, a mechanical engineering building from the 1980s equipped with solar thermal and thermal storage, had fallen into disrepair. A team of academics and facility engineers began work on the design and construction of a smart grid project. The university had also invested in a smart meter system, a district heating and cooling plant with power generation capability of eight megawatts of combined heat and power, and numerous automation and integration technology projects over several decades. The advent of smart grid presented an opportunity for an advanced Design/Build energy project, and the ultimate Green Building system. A video to warm many an engineer’s heart on how the smart grid works to help create “smart cities”, can be viewed in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-ywPpRReAc . Just after it opened in 2015, I had the opportunity to have a meeting about ThriveAbility with Deloitte in their new Dutch headquarters called the “Edge”xii. In December 2014 it received the highest ever BREEAM score (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Methodology) which has become the de facto test for sustainability in buildings - an outstanding rating with the highestever score of 98.36%, making it a star in a business world increasingly going green. The building prides itself on good coffee, lots of natural light - no desk is far from a window - and a gym that allows you not just to get fit but also to contribute to the energy supply of the office. It also flushes its toilets with rainwater, has a robot security guard that will challenge you if you wander around at night and a whole range of clever technology to make the building sustainable. The Edge boasts "smart" ceilings embedded with 28,000 sensors, which measure temperature, light, motion and humidity. The lighting, designed by Phillips, is also smart - each one of the LED panels is ultra-efficient and requires only a tiny amount of electricity. Workers can control the temperature, lighting and blinds via a series of apps on their smartphones and work is ongoing to unify them. Users select the temperature they want from a sliding gauge on their phone and it will in turn adjust the valves in the pipes above their head. Each valve controls the temperature of around four desks so they do have to hope that the colleague sitting next to them is also happy with the change. The building is doing its bit to encourage its workers to go greener. There is a huge space for bikes and a whole wall dedicated to electric car charging points in the underground car park.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The building’s system is an experimental design, so there have been some important learnings about getting the balance right between what makes people feel comfortable and what technology would “like” to optimize the facility, For example, each floor of Deloitte's office is laid out the same way, making it ideal for hot-desking. In theory the firm can allocate desks more efficiently if employees use the app. When The Edge first opened, 20% of the workers checked themselves in via the app. That quickly fell, however, to 10% and is now at around 1%. It turns out (unsurprisingly), that people prefer to go to the same place every day and sit with their peers. Data dashboards display a variety of real-time data points - including the number of workers in the building at any given time, how many visitors, energy consumption and temperature. It also has some more fun data sets, such as a piechart showing how much coffee, and what type, is being consumed in the building at any given time. I can vouch for the fact that the cappuccinos are excellent! Smart, Sustainable Homes There are a huge variety of green, intelligent homes that have popped up all over the world in the past few decades. Nestled among the trees in Freiburg, Germany is the revolutionary, energy efficient Heliotrope. Hailed as the first house in the world to generate more power than it uses (by its German architect, Rolf Disch), the Heliotrope's energy is entirely renewable, emissions free and CO2 neutral. It literally rotates to make the most of the sun's light and heat, has a 6.6kw dual-axis solar PV tracking panel, a geothermal heat exchanger, a combined heat and power unit and solar-thermal balcony railings for both heat and hot water. There's also a grey-water cleansing system and a natural compost system for food waste. The house has won several innovation and environmental awards. According to the definition by the IBI (The Intelligent Buildings Institute, US), an “intelligent building is one that provides a productive and cost-effective environment through optimization of its four basic components – structure, systems, services and management – and the interrelationships between them”. The definition by EIBG (European Intelligent Building Group) further classifies an intelligent building as one that “incorporates the best available concepts, materials, systems and technologies integrating these to achieve a building which meets or exceeds the performance requirements of the building stakeholders”. Based on these definitions, the use of advanced technologies is a key component and enabler for the improved performance of buildings. However, technology and systems are just one part of the larger building ecosystem. Buildings can be © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future designed and built for high performance and energy efficiency, but such advanced technologies can be all for naught without proper management and maintenance over time. Passive designs and other conventional methods certainly remain relevant to optimize building performance and energy efficiency. Many intelligent green homes and buildings are featured here: http://brightgreenbusiness.com/enGB/Showcases/ZERO-house-2.aspx Denmark´s first ZERO+ house was completed in 2009, comprising 200 m2 of modern yet comfortable space, though a little austere in appearance from the outside. The “SIB ZERO+ House” produces more energy than its family consumes in their everyday life, with a positive annual energy cost and sells the excess power to the national grid at the market price. The meter simply runs backwards. The concept of the ZERO+ House was proven in its first year of operation: the house produced more energy than the family consumed. And the ZERO+ house continues to do so. The success of the house is based on a combination of energy efficient insulation, ventilation, passive solar heat, geothermal heat pump, photovoltaic and an ultramodern energy management system that constantly monitors and optimizes the use of energy. The energy consumption of the house in the first 12 months was 5.133 kWh – including heating, cooking and all domestic appliances - out of which 2.890 kWh were used for lighting, ventilation, dishwashing, tumble-drying etc. During the same year the 42 m2 solar panels produced 5.160 kWh – a surplus of 27 kWh . Since the Zero+ House was built, the cost of PV-technology has decreased by 15% per year and will continue to decrease. Grid parity has been achieved in Denmark for private homes and investments in PV. Energy efficient house construction is therefore not only good for the climate but also for the household economy. The ZERO+ House has not only inspired the development of the GEHRY Harbour project to be ZERO+, but the Danish Building Code for 2020 will also be based on the same passive house construction with a renewable energy production. During 2012 more than 1500 private families in Sonderborg invested in their own PVproduction plant, which together with company PV-investments make Sonderborg a national leader in installed PV systems. Looking into the future, a smart home will be like a human central nervous system, with a central platform, or “brain” at the core. Individual homebots will radiate out from this platform and perform a wide variety of tasks, including supervising other bots. Homebots can be as diverse as their roles: big, small, invisible (such as the software that runs systems or products), shared, and © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future personal. Some homebots will be companions or assistants, others wealth planners and accountants. We will have homebots as coaches, window washers, and household managers, throughout our home. In the near future expect to see more items in our living space become interconnectedâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the formative first stage of a new home ecosystem. In five years, numerous tools and devices in the home will be affected. And in a few decades in developed parts of the world, smart homes will become commonplace and will regularly feature devices and systems with independent intelligence and apparent emotion. That level of home improvement presents significant opportunities, threats, and changes for appliances and devices that have been part of our home life for generations. New homes in developed parts of the world will be built on a foundation of platforms and ecosystems, whose producers will need to establish new levels of trust with their customers. Competition will take place not just for the consumers who inhabit the smart home, but for the interactions between consumers and homebots that will increasingly shape buying behaviour. In the developing world in transition into the modern era, or leapfrogging directly to the thriveable economy, we will find the emergence of local, bottom up smart grids. Here we will find distributed renewable energy and communications systems such as the Ekocentre connect up with other local forms of infrastructure to facilitate community and agricultural planning, energy and resource sharing as well as educational and entertainment functions. Smarter communities and regions will link up to form more thriveable habitats for all their inhabitants, as well as connecting to smart cities and the smart grids required to facilitate their activities.

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

PATHWAY SIX – CIRCULAR MANUFACTURING AND MOBILITY Thriveable habitats are composites of regenerative infrastructures and manufactured capital integrated with natural capital in ways that are conducive to human thriving and the wellbeing of key native species in local ecosystems. A thriveable habitat provides the foundation for the development and regeneration of human, relationship, social and intellectual capitals. The flows and exchanges of people, goods, money and information are facilitated in thriveable habitats by regenerative and inclusive mobility systems that support closed loop, circular economy approaches and sharing economy principles. Most of our infrastructure capital and its intelligence in Pathway Five is hidden behind the surfaces of the roads, bridges, stations, airports, hospitals, shopping malls, schools, factories, power stations, offices and homes we take for granted every day. Infrastructure acts like our basic organ systems and skeleton that make it possible for our senses and limbs to engage with the world, which in turn make Pathway Six possible. Pathway Six and manufactured capital is akin to our skin, acting as the interface between us, others, the environment and the stuff and systems we interact with. We see, feel, hear, smell and taste everything we interact with in Pathway Six – from the interiors of our homes, cars, public transport, to the interiors of our offices, factories and other places of work, to our computing and communications devices, to the clothing and accessories we wear and the people we meet and live/work/play with. A place of sensory delights, as well as unwanted substances, smells and sounds. This is the world of designer and “women’s magazines”, interior decoration, the physical underpinning of the world of culture and the arts, our paintings, sculptures, musical instruments and all the toys and games we have or ever will play with. And when we travel we experience the vast investments in © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future manufactured capitals superimposed on the backbone of infrastructures, from swanky airport and aircraft interiors to the more functional interiors of trains, stations, buses and taxis, and the insides of hotels and restaurants and resorts and….. In fact, in modernist, materialist societies, large numbers of people create their entire identity out of this world of manufactured capital, from the clothes they wear to the car they drive to the restaurants they enjoy and the clubs and concerts they attend to the devices in their pockets. Consumerist capitalism was in fact designed to make this world of effervescent novelty and rapid obsolescence the only game in town for the suburban and urban middle classes and elites. It is still today the dominant game being played globally by the rising classes and those in power. And that, right there, is one of our greatest challenges – how can we develop creative, more thriveable lifestyles that do not involve such conspicuous and wasteful consumption? There are currently several paths that have begun to deepen within Pathway Six, including: •

The Circular Economy – what began as the “cradle-to-cradle” movement and “biomimicry” is coalescing into an approach to design which demands that we reduce, reuse, recycle and upcycle all materials through regenerative design approaches;

•

Redefining the Good Life – various movements against conspicuous, materialist, consumerist ways of living are also coalescing into a broad spectrum of alternative lifestyle and mainstream lifestyle choices;

•

Sharing Economy – whether it be accommodation, ride-sharing, carsharing, tool sharing or any other form of sharing, the sharing economy has become a major trend in the past decade.

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Thriveable Habitat Design – new ways of designing human habitats are also gaining traction, applying integral, systemic approaches to both urban and rural habitats that integrate wellbeing/healthcare, transport/mobility, sustainable business, natural resilience and research and education in the design approach.

Let’s explore each of these in a little more depth to see where they might take us along Pathway Six.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The Circular Economy Over the past 200 years or so, the populations on our planet have survived and thrived with a linear economy, more commonly referred to as “take, make, waste.” Resources like minerals, fossil fuels, timber, and the like are extracted from the environment and used to make a commodity; the commodity is sold, used and then deposited as trash at the end of its life. If a Martian circling our planet were to be asked what he/she/it observed about our current global economy, they might note that it appeared to be full of humans digging large holes in the earth in some areas. Then, various substances would be moved from these holes to trucks and boats and shipped to factories in other places, where smaller items would emerge from the factory gates and sent to other factories to be assembled into bigger items that were then shipped to shops where people came to buy those items and take them home. Amazingly, after only a short time, less than two years normally, 98% of those items would then be discarded into holes in other parts of the planet, forever. The Martians would indeed be amazed at how wasteful this whole “economy” thing was, especially as they had noticed from their monitoring of our news broadcasts that we kept on moaning how we were running out of everything, from precious minerals to basic commodities, and especially, our wildernesses. Let’s just take a look at one area ripe for a more circular approach- food: •

Each year, an estimated one third of all food produced – equivalent to 1.3 billion tonnes worth around $1 trillion – ends up rotting in the bins of consumers and retailers, or spoiling due to poor transportation and harvesting practices.

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While substantial environmental impacts from food occur in the production phase (agriculture, food processing), households influence these impacts through their dietary choices and habits. This consequently affects the environment through food-related energy consumption and waste generation.

•

2 billion people globally are overweight or obese.

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Land degradation, declining soil fertility, unsustainable water use, overfishing and marine environment degradation are all lessening the ability of the natural resource base to supply food.

•

The food sector accounts for around 30 per cent of the world’s total energy consumption and accounts for around 22 per cent of total Greenhouse Gas emissions.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

Should the global population reach 9.6 billion by 2050, the equivalent of almost three planets could be required to provide the natural resources needed to sustain current lifestyles

Cradle-to-cradle and biomimicry are two examples of regenerative design approaches that are becoming widely used in what has now become known as the Circular Economy movement, whose goal is both the elimination of waste and an order of magnitude improvement in the eco-efficiency of resources and materials in the next few decades. In 2011 the Guardian newspaper told the short story of how the humble carpet tile became the catalyst that launched the cradle-to-cradle (or “C2C”) movement into the mainstream: “Who would have imagined that the humble carpet tile would become a hotbed of innovation on the road to a more sustainable future? Ray Anderson was responsible for leading the way at InterfaceFlor, pioneering the goal of achieving zero impact through a change in the business paradigm. But ever since he opened up a lead in the sector, other businesses have been playing catch-up – with varying degrees of success.”xiii Ray Anderson's epiphany came from reading Paul Hawken's book, The Ecology of Commerce. Anderson felt "the point of a spear driven straight into my heart" while reading the book. At Desso, InterfaceFlor’s main competitor in the carpet tile industry, CEO Kranendijk's response was a little less dramatic: "I started sweating and felt a panic in my head – I thought that this is fantastic. Such a logical, meaningful concept and I wanted to do this. The reason I started to panic is because I recognised this would mean we would have to change the whole way we work: R&D, manufacturing, the way we market and sell.” It turns out the C2C design has given both Interface and Desso a real competitive edge in their marketplaces, as more and more buyers, architects and designers are specifying C2C products for their interiors. Cradle-to-cradle design embodies a biomimetic approach to the design of products and systems, modelling human industry on nature's processes. It views materials as nutrients circulating in healthy, safe metabolisms, and suggests that industry must protect and enrich ecosystems and nature's biological metabolism while also maintaining a safe, productive technical metabolism for the high-quality use and circulation of organic and technical nutrients. C2C is an holistic economic, industrial and social framework that seeks to create systems that are not only efficient but also essentially waste free.

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future In C2C all materials used in industrial or commercial processes fall into one of two categories: "technical" or "biological" nutrients. Technical nutrients are strictly limited to non-toxic, non-harmful synthetic materials that have no negative effects on the natural environment; they can be used in continuous cycles as the same product without losing their integrity or quality. In this manner these materials can be used over and over again instead of being "downcycled" into lesser products, ultimately becoming waste. Biological Nutrients are organic materials that, once used, can be disposed of in any natural environment and decompose into the soil, providing food for small life forms without affecting the natural environment. This is dependent on the ecology of the region; for example, organic material from one country or landmass may be harmful to the ecology of another country or landmass. The goal is not only to eliminate waste, but also to increase the lifecycle of products and technologies. C2C is now widely applied by hundreds of companies such as Interface, Ford, Herman Miller, Aveda, Desso, Steelcase and Stabilo in Europe and North America. The Chinese government has also taken a keen interest in C2C and its allied approaches. Braungart and McDonough’s book: “Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things” is a good starting point to understand their model in some depth. Biomimetics or biomimicry is the imitation of the models, systems, and elements of nature for the purpose of solving complex human problems. Living organisms have evolved well-adapted structures and materials over geological time through natural selection. Biomimetics has given rise to new technologies inspired by biological solutions at macro and nanoscales. Humans have looked at nature for answers to problems throughout our existence. Nature has solved engineering problems such as self-healing abilities, environmental exposure tolerance and resistance, hydrophobicity, self-assembly, and harnessing solar energy. Biomimicry was popularized by scientist and author Janine Benyus in her 1997 book: “Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by Nature”. Biomimicry is defined in the book as a "new science that studies nature's models and then imitates or takes inspiration from these designs and processes to solve human problems". Benyus suggests looking to Nature as a "Model, Measure, and Mentor" and emphasizes sustainability as an objective of Biomimicry. A recent article in the Guardian newspaper highlights some of the fascinating innovations emerging in this field: “From lab-grown burgers to farms monitored by sensors and drones, technology lies at the heart of many of today’s sustainable food solutions. Now, the Biomimicry Institute, a Montana-based non-profit, is taking the trend a step further © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future with its new Food Systems Design Challenge, encouraging a cadre of entrepreneurs to improve the food production system by emulating techniques and processes found in nature….. By 2030, bioinspired innovations could generate $1.6tn of GDP worldwide, according to a 2013 report from Point Loma University’s Fermanian Business and Economic Institute. Another report from sustainable design firm Terrapin Bright Green, found companies that use biomimicry can reap greater revenues and have lower costs than those that don’t. For years, large companies have increasingly employed biomimicry to solve difficult engineering challenges. Qualcomm’s Mirasol electronic device display imitates the light-reflective structure of a butterfly wing and uses a tenth of the power of an LCD reader, while Sprint worked with the San Diego Zoo’s Center for Bioinspiration to design more environmentally friendly packaging.” Many companies have profitably pursued the path of biologically inspired innovation. Biomatrica, a rapidly growing biotechnology company, licenses a system for preserving and stabilizing biological samples based on processes observed in brine shrimp. Interface, the world’s largest manufacturer of carpet tiles, developed its best-selling product line by mimicking the random colons and patterns of the forest floor. PAX Scientific—founded on the insight that human hearts, birds in flight, and falling maple seeds use vortices to move fluid efficiently—has designed and sold their vortex water technologies to more than 1,000 customers, greatly reducing energy consumption at each installation. Although bioinspired innovation holds enormous potential for the global economy, it still has far to go to fulfil its promise of transforming large portions of our wasteful, throwaway world. As the Da Vinci Index for Bioinspired innovation Patents shows, there is tremendous potential for biomimetic approaches to deliver regenerative design solutions for many of our most familiar products and technologies.xiv A circular economy is an alternative to a traditional linear economy (make, use, dispose) in which we keep resources in use for as long as possible, extract the maximum value from them whilst in use, then recover and regenerate products and materials at the end of each service life. The circular economy movement began with The Ellen MacArthur Foundation in 2010. Its aim is to accelerate the transition to the circular economy. Since its creation the charity has emerged as a global thought leader, establishing the circular economy on the agenda of decision makers across business, government

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future and academia. The Foundation’s work focuses on education, business innovation, economic reports, systemic initiatives and communications. As Janez Potočnik, the architect of Europe’s circular economy strategy says: “We have to fundamentally rethink the economic model,” he said. “The message is that it is possible to create opportunities. We are living in the 21st century of fragility. The responsibilities we are all carrying individually and collectively are totally different from someone who was living on this planet even 50 years ago. Humans are part of nature, but we behave like an invasive species. The circular story is one that cannot be removed from an agenda any more. It is a movement that cannot be stopped.” The full circular economy model as adopted in Europe both transcends and includes the key elements of C2C and other lifecycle approaches to sustainability. The key advantage of this more complex approach is that it works across entire economies and industries, and not just the supply chains of individual companies, thereby enabling the “zero waste” model to be scaled very rapidly. This has created an important momentum to support the transition towards a more circular economy in the EU, including legislative proposals on waste, with long term targets to reduce landfilling and increase recycling and reuse. In order to close the loop of product lifecycles, it also included an Action Plan to support the circular economy in each step of the value chain – from production to consumption, repair and manufacturing, waste management and secondary raw materials that are fed back into the economy. The transition towards a more circular economy brings great opportunities for Europe and its citizens. It is an important part of Europe’s efforts to modernise and transform the economy, shifting it in a more sustainable direction. There is a strong business case behind it, enabling companies to make substantial economic gains and become more competitive while delivering important energy savings and environmental benefits, creating local jobs and opportunities for social integration. Fertilisers - For example, a proposal on fertilisers will help create jobs and boost innovation. The impact assessment accompanying the legislative proposal estimates that about 120 000 jobs could be created thanks to recycling of bio-waste in organic-based fertilisers. By creating a level playing field for fertiliser sector, SMEs and farmers producing organic fertilising products will be able to access the single market and seize new opportunities. They will be able to offer their products to a wider group of customers and benefit from economies of scale by offering a product that is endorsed by the widely recognised quality guarantee of the ‘CE-marking’. This will further boost research, innovation and investment in © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future the circular economy, create jobs and generate value from secondary domesticallysourced resources. Food Waste - On 1 August 2016, the Commission established the EU Platform on Food Losses and Food Waste. The platform will be the key forum at EU level to support all players in identifying and taking actions needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals commitment to halve food waste per capita by 2030. It gathers 70 members representing public authorities (Member States, EFTA countries, EU bodies and international organisations) and all actors along the food value chain, including food banks and other NGOs. The platform is defining key deliverables of the circular economy Action Plan on food waste, including the main elements to be considered in developing a methodology to measure food waste consistently across the EU. The methodology will be utilised by Member States to fulfil reporting obligations related to food waste laid down in the Commission's legislative proposal to revise the Waste Framework Directive. Key elements of the full legislative waste proposal includexv: •

A common EU target for recycling 65% of municipal waste by 2030;

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A common EU target for recycling 75% of packaging waste by 2030;

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A binding landfill target to reduce landfill to maximum of 10% of municipal waste by 2030;

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A ban on landfilling of separately collected waste;

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Promotion of economic instruments to discourage landfilling;

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Simplified and improved definitions and harmonised calculation methods for recycling rates throughout the EU;

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Concrete measures to promote re-use and stimulate industrial symbiosis turning one industry's by-product into another industry's raw material;

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Economic incentives for producers to put greener products on the market and support recovery and recycling schemes (eg for packaging, batteries, electric and electronic equipment, vehicles).

Sustainable Development Goal no 12 represents the circular economy: “to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”. To ensure that the circular economy becomes a fully inclusive model of development, it must be accessible and implementable for all. This means creating pathways to success for small-to-medium entities and emerging economies via expertise and funding. Tearfund and the Institute of Development Studies outline

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future the potential of the unparalleled opportunity of the circular economy to create jobs and save lives in low- and middle-income countries. The circular economy is a system of great potential for economic, social and environmental progress in inclusive and equitable models of strategy and development. But to start on the path to success, brave first movers that understand how circular economy expands the core business model are needed. For example, ING bank is rethinking finance in the circular economy (in addition to integrating concepts into its own business). Identifying opportunities for industrial symbiosis has diversified British Sugar’s product offerings while strengthening its business-to-business (B-2-B) relationships, at profit. FLOOW2 brings the sharing economy to a B-2-B sharing marketplace for overcapacity of equipment, skills and knowledge of personnel. And the Circular Economy 100 Group, coordinated by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, is working to advance this movement across multiple sectors.

Redefining the Good Life The sheer diversity of humanity will guarantee that what we each consider to be “the good life” or “a good life” will vary considerably. My aim in this short section is to speak from the perspective of the transition from Era 3 (modern and post-modern) to Era 4 (global, regenerative integration). This will help us explore how some of the pockets of the future in the present we have been examining in the six pathways to a thriveable future, come to be integrated into real lives and worlds. A good place to start is with the “Oasis” experiment I began 15 years ago, to establish a one-planet habitat for the evolution of human potential. Much of the detail of this story is covered in a humorous vein in my book “The Trouble with Paradise”, but for now the core story will do. In 2002 I decided to make the transition from the world of business and management development and consulting to see if I could create a small corner of paradise where I could live within a one-planet footprint while also enjoying my life more than I could living in the hurly-burly of London. I found and renovated an old chateau in Perpignan close to the Spanish border in the south of France over a number of years, where we hosted hundreds of events and tens of thousands of guests, around the theme of “relax, refresh and reinvent”. My new purpose and mission became to catalyse the personal and social transformations and innovations that could lead to a greener, more inclusive, even integral, life and world. It was the “Oasis” at La Tour Apollinaire that enabled © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future many new movements and organisations to form, from Integral Without Borders to Renaissance2 and the ThriveAbility Foundation, amongst others. New networks of transformative activists emerged, along with new projects that gave many a sense of new direction and contribution to a more thriveable world. There were many challenges along the way; personal; financial; professional and more. “The good life” was not without its risks and drawbacks, but it turned out to be a great adventure, and at times a thrilling privilege to be part of such a groundswell of “better world” initiatives. We also made a global network of friends and travelling companions that enriched our lives considerably. The “life conditions” in northern Catalonia were an important part of the recipe for a richer, regenerative life that made a difference. Fertile soil and ancient biological agriculture and viticulture methods produced foods and wines that were always seasonal and full of vitality without agrichemical and pesticides. Hundreds of wind turbines and solar panels around the region that generate renewable energy, backed up by the French grid; solar panels on our rooftop that generate local renewable energy being pumped into the grid during the day. Living in a warmer climate with a Mediterranean lifestyle and diet also contributed to the wellbeing of our guests, our projects and ourselves; a slower pace of life, longevity enhancing siestas; time to meditate, think and write; all of this added up to a much better life than I could have imagined possible. Of course we will each have our own special version of our own “Oasis”, in very different places, but they may share some of the common threads in this story: •

A shift in our values and priorities, often associated with transitions between different phases of life (in my own case I transformed a mid-life “crisis” into an opportunity for development and regeneration of myself and others) – a Pathway one phenomenon;

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An opportunity to learn new skills and develop different aspects of our personalities- for me in particular this revolved around developing networks for social innovation and inclusive entrepreneurialism, as well as cultivating my own musical and artistic talents- a Pathway two experience;

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An experiment in new economic and business models that mirrored true cost, true pricing and true value, redefining what “progress” means along with longer term thinking and planning to create true future value- a Pathway three development;

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An experience of living in a region where bio-agriculture and viticulture plus regenerative forestry and fisheries management are practised, so that

Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future the pleasure of enjoying the abundance of the region’s local produce was matched only by the knowledge that it was sourced sustainably and with loving care- a Pathway four practice of recovery, resilience and regeneration; •

Learning to live a carbon neutral lifestyle based on renewable energy and power and close to zero net-energy buildings, while also discovering the challenges of getting “close to zero”- a Pathway five challenge;

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And finally, eliminating waste in our lives through a variety of avenues starting with what we choose to buy and consume, how we use and consume it and how we dispose of it/recycle it, while also attempting to reduce our carbon and other emissions through low carbon mobility options whenever possible. This proved to be the most difficult transition to make- and demonstrated how far we have to go in travelling toward a thriveable future on Pathway six.

Most importantly, I realised that this was a very personal journey that also involved my own desire to live a life where I could cultivate a greater sense of inner peace and joy that was independent of my life conditions and the state of the world in general. That was, and still is, an ongoing work in progress, though I find myself refreshed and renewed from this experience, despite the inevitable rollercoaster ride such entrepreneurial ventures involve. I believe it is important for us to each begin to tell our own stories about how we are personally engaging with each of the six pathways toward a more thriveable world and a better, richer, deeper and more meaningful life for ourselves and those we care about. My hope is that the models and frameworks used in this book will help you to do that in your own life, and share that with others.

Sharing Economy Whether it be accommodation, ride-sharing, car-sharing, tool sharing or any other form of sharing, the sharing economy has become a major trend in the past decade. Sharing isn’t new. Giving someone a ride, having a guest in your spare room, running errands for someone, lending someone your lawnmower or drill - these are not radically new ideas. What is new, in the “sharing economy,” is that you are not helping a friend for free; you are providing these services to a stranger for money. “Crowd-based capitalism” might become a new way of organizing economic activity that eventually replaces the corporate-centred model, but it also has many pitfalls.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Also known as shareconomy, collaborative consumption or peer economy, a common academic definition of the term refers to a hybrid market model (in between owning and gift giving) of peer-to-peer exchange. Such transactions are often facilitated via community-based online services. Yet most often what is happening is not actually sharing anything, but simply accessing someone else’s goods or services via an intermediary. The usual suspects in this area: Airbnb, Lyft, Uber, Etsy, TaskRabbit, France’s BlaBlaCar, LoveHomeSwap, China’s Didi Kuaidi, and India’s Ola, are all online platforms that make huge amounts of money for their founders by connecting strangers with each other to share things and experiences in exchange for money or barter. A 2014 study by PricewaterhouseCoopersxvi , which looked at five components of the sharing economy: travel, car sharing, finance, staffing and streaming, found that global spending in these sectors totalled about $15 billion, or only about 5% of the total spending in those areas. The report also forecasts a possible increase of "sharing economy" spending in these areas to $335 billion by 2025, which would be about 50% of the total spending in these areas. As peer-to-peer commercial exchange blurs the lines between the personal and the professional, how will the economy, government regulation, what it means to have a job, and our social fabric be affected? In the case of Uber, Lyft and BlaBlaCar, the answer may be: simply hollowing out existing taxi drivers and their jobs, leaving them either unemployed or with the option to become drivers for a near monopoly that charges very high rents for its services. Much like AirBnB, which has also been excluded from many cities in the world because it has killed many small hotels and existing accommodation providers who actually pay their full taxes and follow the laws about safety and guest protection. So far it seems that the score of the sharing economy is Silicon Valley 5, rest of the world 1. Will the sharing economy evolve in line with its stated progressive, green, and utopian goals, or will it devolve into business as usual? The tendency of platforms to scale and dominate (think Google, Facebook, and Amazon) offers a cautionary tale. So, too, does the history of Zipcar. Once the face of the sharing economy, it is now a sub-brand of Avis. Will other sharing platforms follow similar trajectories as they grow? Or will the sharing economy be the disruptive, world-changing innovation its proponents expect? And if it is, will it change the world for the better? While some of the platforms present a gentle face to the world, they can also be ruthless. Uber, backed by Google and Goldman Sachs, has been engaging in anti-

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future competitive behaviour, such as recruiting its competitors’ drivers. By contrast, many of the initiatives in the sharing space, such as tool libraries, seed banks, time banks, and food swaps, are non-profits. They do not seek growth or revenue maximization, but instead aim to serve needs, usually at a community scale. While the for-profit vs. non-profit divide is the most important one, the divide between P2P (peer-to-peer) and B2P (business-to-peer) platforms is also significant. P2P entities earn money by commissions on exchanges, so revenue growth depends on increasing the number of trades. In contrast, B2P platforms often seek to seek to maximize revenue per transaction, as traditional businesses often do. Consider the differences between Zipcar (B2P) and RelayRides (P2P). On RelayRides, owners earn income from renting their own vehicles, choosing trades based on their needs, and setting rates and availability. Zipcar functions like an ordinary short-term car rental company. With a P2P structure, as long as there is competition, the “peers” (both providers and consumers) should be able to capture a higher fraction of value. Of course, when there is little competition, the platform can extract rents, or excess profits, regardless. Most sharing economy websites advertise their green credentials, and many users care about their ecological impact. The ecological benefits of sharing are often seen as obvious: secondary markets reduce demand for new goods, so footprints go down. Staying in existing homes reduces the demand for new hotels just as toolsharing reduces new tool purchases. Outside the US, the impetus to share in transportation, housing, foods, and goods is more integrally tied to city-level goals of carbon emission reduction, informational transparency and genuine democracy. By embedding sharing practices within those larger municipal level movements, the likelihood that the sharing movement can achieve its stated goals is greater. The sharing economy enables strangers, to connect, exchange, share information, and cooperate in often-transformative ways. That’s the promise of the sharing platforms about which virtually everyone agrees. But technologies are only as good as the political and social context in which they are employed. Software, crowdsourcing, and the information commons give us powerful tools for building social solidarity, democracy, and sustainability, but only if the governance structures and values of those providing and using the goods and services ensure the fairness of the whole system. In other words, we need to develop Era 4 cultures and values that value collaboration, can identify and build on opportunities for multi-capital, thriveable designs and communities. Activities in Pathway One – Cultures and Values, and Pathway Two – Human Development and Education are thus critical to ensuring that the capabilities and © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future activities in Pathways Three to Six are guided in regenerative, inclusive and thriveable directions.

Thriveable Habitat Design Finally in Pathway Six, we look at how everything from Pathways One through Six can be integrated into a more integrative, systemic way of designing thriveable human habitats. This has been the main focus of the ThriveAbility Foundation together with its work on corporate metrics and innovation approaches. A thriveable habitat design approach applies to both urban and rural habitats, integrating and interweaving wellbeing/healthcare, transport/mobility, sustainable business, natural resilience and research and education. At a practical level, thriveable habitat design is empowered by Krippendorff’s “performative sensemaking” approach, which focuses on five nested activities that define human-centred design: 1.

INVENT - Designers invent or conceive possible futures, including its artefacts that they may be able to bring about, imaginable worlds that would not come about naturally;

DESIRE - Designers need to know how desirable these futures are to those who might inhabit them, and whether they afford diverse communities the spaces they require to make a home in them – and one would expect thriveability and desirability to strongly align with each other;

EXPERIMENT - Designers experiment with what is variable or could be changed, in view of the opportunities that variability could open up for them and others;

PATHWORK - Designers work out realistic paths, plans to proceed towards desirable futures;

PROPOSE – Designers make proposals (of realistic paths) to those who could bring a design to fruition, to the stakeholders of a design.

Design and innovation are both crucial to creating thriveable and desirable futures, yet if they occur in contexts that are too narrow (or “siloed” i.e. in narrow silos of activity or disciplines), they run the risk of being difficult or impossible to implement in the face of highly complex, inter-connected challenges, also know as “wicked problems”. Most of the big problems we face as a species are now

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future wicked, given the success we have had in solving the simple and complicated problems. So the really difficult challenge is: how can we transcend siloes and encourage systemic thinking and actions across habitats at different scales, so that we have a chance of arriving at a desirable, thriveable future for all stakeholders? Like the layers on Google Earth maps, the scales and boundaries of habitats can be watersheds, ecosystems, biomes, islands, continents, or human defined boundaries such as a single home, to a small community or town, to a city, to a region, a nation state or an entire planet. Clearly though, the design process relies on human stakeholders to make it work, which is why one normally begins with the politically defined boundaries before moving onto the natural systems boundaries. Within these boundaries at different levels of scale, we find that our current systems of governance split responsibility for different social functions into different departments and various kinds of entities suited to the purpose of each function. This is easier to explain with a real-life example at the level of the county of Surrey in England, where a pilot project implementing this approach is underway. There are six broad social functions in Surrey county. The first three functions are fundamental to the whole system, providing the base upon which the other functions rely: •

Natural Resilience – here we have a wide variety of statutory and voluntary bodies that are responsible for ensuring Surrey stays clean, green and serene- for example, the Surrey Wildlife Trust, the Surrey Nature Partnership, the Royal Horticultural Society, various woodland and farming organisations and the policies of the Department for the Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, a national government department. The key capital involved and to be regenerated here is Natural Capital;

•

Health and Wellbeing – very closely linked to natural resilience is human health and wellbeing. There is a great deal of evidence showing that our connection to and involvement with natural settings is highly beneficial to our health and wellbeing. Many of those who live in the inner-cities without a park or some kind of natural setting nearby tend to suffer from ill-health, obesity and other chronic forms of illness, for example. The key capitals needing regeneration here are human, natural and social capitals;

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Planning and Mobility – the role of transport and communications hubs and networks is critical to enabling modern civilisations to flourish. With

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future the right kinds of investments into thriveable infrastructures that are green and inclusive, we can create mixed urban and rural lifestyles that are both regenerative and enhance the thriving of all stakeholders. Whether it be electric and other green vehicles, multi-modal sharing economy systems and platforms, the flow of people, goods and services in and around towns and cities can be radically improved in the next few decades. The key capitals requiring regeneration here are infrastructure, natural and human; •

Sustainable Business Growth - business has a vital role to play in creating a thriveable future for all of us – it is literally the engine of prosperity. Sustainable business that focuses on people and planet as well as profit is now becoming the norm. The next step in this journey is for businesses to learn to innovate synergistically and regeneratively, so that they become originators of thriveable outcomes for all their stakeholders. This includes developments such as the circular economy, sharing economy and redefining the good life, as the core of the economy shifts from its unsustainable current state to a more thriveable future state. They key capitals involved here are Intellectual, Manufacturing and Human Capital;

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Research and Education - human learning and development is the key to social progress and a flourishing civilisation – the backbone of our world and our future. There is so much potential to improve education, learning and development that creative and pragmatic minds are faced with immense opportunities to radically enhance the quality of these cornerstones of our world. Incremental and synergistic innovation are also driven by research and education, increasing our stocks and flows of intellectual and knowledge capital, as well as the quality and scale of businesses and governance systems of all kinds. Intellectual and human capitals are the key to this area;

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Sustainable Economic Prosperity – the net result of all of these activities is prosperity – a feeling of thriving and wellbeing amongst the general population, supported by the availability of the necessities of a green and inclusive existence, along with the cultural, sporting and vocational outlets for expressions of the innate potentials of every human being in a thriveable habitat. This then becomes a full multi-capital expression of flourishing and ThriveAbility. Business, civil and civic society intermesh and support each other in creative and surprising ways that support the six Pathways to a thriveable future.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future This approach would work equally well at many levels, from a household to a community, a city to a nation state. These six interconnecting functions also map clearly onto the six pathways we have explored in detail in this chapter. The key to successful outcomes is how well the methods and tools of synergistic innovation are used to crack the “Anthropocene enigma” where you live and work. This is the focus of our final chapter: how we can each activate transformation in the contexts we are living and working and investing in, and how we can build on the pockets of the future in the present in each of the six pathways toward a thriveable future.

"Economics has painted itself as a detached amoral science, but humans are moral creatures. We must bring morality back into the center of economics in order for people to relate to and trust it. All of the science shows that deeply ingrained, reciprocal moral behaviors are the glue that holds society together. Understanding the economy as not just an amoral machine that provides incentives and distributes resources, but rather as a human moral construct is essential, not just for creating a more just economy, but also for understanding how the economy actually creates prosperity."

Eric Beinhockerxvii

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CHAPTER TWO – EXERCISES NOTE – PLEASE FEEL FREE TO USE BLANK WHITE PAPER TO COMPLETE THOSE EXERCISES WHERE YOU DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH SPACE BELOW. 1.

MAPPING INTERESTS & INITIATIVES TO PATHWAYS - Map any initiatives you are involved in or would like to get involved in to one or more of the six pathways. Build on your answers to the exercises in chapter one.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS - Explain the specific SDG’s that are related to your chosen pathway/s. How might the SDG program help you to make progress on your pathway/s, and how would you measure that progress?

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 3.

FOOD/WATER/ENERGY NEXUS – Describe why the this nexus is so vital to the flourishing of all life on our planet, and give an example of your own that illustrates the dynamics of this nexus.

RELATIONSHIP & KNOWLEDGE CAPITALS – Explain in your own words why these two capitals are the “future glue” that enables synergistic innovation to happen.

KEY LEARNINGS FROM THIS CHAPTER – What are the top three things you’ve learned?

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CHAPTER TWO – FURTHER READING

Synergise! 21st Century Leadership by Dr Robin Wood 3. WHAT WE CAN – SIX PATHWAYS 3.1. Mindsets Matter Most 3.2. Pathway One - Values & Visions- 21C Lifestyles & the New World of Work 3.3. Pathway Two - Human Learning and Development – Creating Conditions for Wellbeing and Thriving A Mediated World Manipulated by Weaponised Narratives The Role of Imagination and Inspiration in Shaping our Future How We Use Technology, and How Technology Uses Us Sources Of Inspiration: Self, Culture And Nature 3.4. Pathway Three - Co-creating True Future Value: The Path to Thriveable Governance, Economics and Finance A Very, Very Short History of Economics The Emergence of Neoliberalism and its Discontents Measures that Matter: Paths to True Future Value 3.5. Pathway Four - Natural Capital - Ecosystems, Oceans, Forests and Food 3.6. Pathway Five - Infrastructure Capital- Energy, Power and Buildings 3.7. Pathway Six - Manufactured Capital- Thriveable Habitats, Mobility and Materials The Circular Economy Redefining the Good Life Thriveable Habitat Design Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership Softback & Kindle Full Colour

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future A Leader’s Guide to Thriveability by Dr Robin Wood 1. THE THRIVEABILITY JOURNEY What Does a Thriving, Green, Inclusive Economy Look Like? The Six Desiderata of ThriveAbility Table B - The Six Desiderata of ThriveAbility Looking over the Horizon - Imagination, Innovation, Transformation & Breakthroughs Creating True Future Value - A Backcast from 2020: the Ubiphone Laying the Social, Economic and Financial Groundwork – The Six Pillars Transforming the Sustainability Reporting Ecosystem – The ThriveAbility Ecosystem DIAGRAM 5 –How the ThriveAbility Ecosystem Might Help Accelerate a Rapid Evolution in the Sustainability Reporting Ecosystem Cycle The ThriveAbility Index Generator

Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility Softback B&W http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle Softback & Kindle Full Colour

“Drawdown” by Paul Hawken The 100 most effective ways to drawdown greenhouse gases from our atmosphere to safe levels that could reduce global warming to 1.5 degrees or less. https://www.amazon.com/Drawdown-Comprehensive-Proposed-ReverseWarming/dp/0143130447

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CHAPTER THREE – HOW TO MAKE GOOD HAPPEN In this chapter we are going to explore some of the key aspects of making good happen from a variety of perspectives- you, the organisations, communities and cities you interact with. We will begin with a dive into some of the basic concepts needed to simplify making anything happen in a very complex and often turbulent world. And then we will dig into the six master capabilities that make this work in practice. All the while, we will be doing this in the context of the six pathways we explored in chapter two, which offer us the map we need to position ourselves on in order to develop the strategies and policies needed to take effective action. Every aspect of every human activity system lives or dies according to these basic concepts. How we can make good happen to ensure the thriving of all life on our planet by 2050 is no exception.

Basic Concepts of Making Stuff Happen in a Complex, Unpredictable World Harnessing Living Systems Complexity to Master Uncertainty You are alive because you are a self-generating, autocatalytic system. Life is a self-sustaining set of chemical reactions capable of reproducing similar copies of itself. Life scales autocatalytically- through chemistry, reproduction and natural selection. From your DNA to the cells in your body to your relationships, to your work and the organisations and networks you work with/for, you are a selfgenerating, autocatalytic system, made possible by other self-generating, autocatalytic systems all the way down to your molecules and all the way up to the biosphere. A living system produces its own components from basic food sources in such a way that these components maintain and regulate the very chemical network that produced them (the “auto” in “autocatalytic). A living system is part of a highly complex and rapidly evolving web of life, a set of connections and interactions that end up working for the whole system and all its components because it produces synergies. When a large enough number of reactions are catalysed in a chemical reaction system a vast web of reactions will suddenly crystallise. Such a web is almost certainly autocatalytic, almost certainly self-sustaining, alive, and synergistic. We

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future are creating living systems when we design organisations, business models and business ecosystems. The building blocks in biological systems follow the natural laws of chemistry and biology. The building blocks in human systems follow the natural laws of psychology, anthropology, sociology and many other sciences. Making good happen needs to build on these natural laws, or tendencies, otherwise it will remain a good intention only. And as we well know, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. To make good happen we must design our organisations, products, networks and social institutions as autocatalytic, self-sustaining interactions between the eight capitals we explored in the two chapters above, in regenerative, distributive ways. Synergy = The interaction or co-operation of two or more ingredients/agents to produce a desirable combined effect greater than the sum of their separate effects. Nature is built on and through synergies. In fact, anything that is enduring or sustainable is by definition, synergistic. We would not be here if it were not for synergies between opposites. There are many wonderful books about synergy, and it is not my purpose here to give you an exhaustive account of this magical phenomenon. Synergies can be very simple or incredibly complex. They come in all sizes. They are everywhere one can detect a pulse. In short, they are the least understood and most important aspect of our existence. Let’s begin with simple synergies. As every English child knows: “Jack Sprat could eat no fat, his wife could eat no lean, so betwixt the two of them, they licked the platter clean”. This is a nice example of a complementary synergy, where two opposites are more effective with resources than they would be on their own, where each of them would have left half a meal on the table. Ecosystems in nature and business both work better when there are complementary synergies between species and firms. For example, one firm’s waste becomes the food for another. Landfills of rubbish that produce the toxic greenhouse gas methane, can sell their waste (methane) to nearby businesses that need cheap energy. Bingo, no wasted methane and less global warming! In nature, every species finds a specific niche that enables it to exploit very specific foods and environments without generating too much competition with other species. Even carnivores such as lions will generally only eat the weakest or sickest animals in a herd, and only when they are very hungry. Nature does not waste a single molecule.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Every child knows that birds and bees are attracted to pollinate flowers by the nectar each flower offers the pollinators. They also know that big fish eat little fish, and that big fleas have little fleas to bite them, and little fleas have lesser fleas and so ad in infinitum. Leaves, animal faeces and other dead organic matter become compost and nourish the soil. And so it goes for the hundreds of millions of species on our planet—not a molecule wasted. Yet in our human world, we still have a long way to go to embed this level of graceful efficiency into our social and economic systems. Despite forty years of environmentalism, as the seventh continent of floating plastic and other garbage known as the mid Pacific gyre attests, we are still pumping unprecedented amounts of pollution into our ecosystems. As architect Bill McDonough, the coinventor of the “Cradle to Cradle” approach to sustainability and design points out, we need to begin thinking about redesigning our industrial and social systems so that one systems waste is another systems food. This trend is growing rapidly as companies seek to save money, energy and resources in their attempts to become more sustainable. As the most imperfectly adapted species on the planet, innovation has literally been the lifeblood of our progression from hunter gatherers in the Holocene to planet shapers in the Anthropocene, driven by over 10 000 life-changing and synergistic innovations in as many years. The first European Renaissance gave us the power to eradicate much disease, discomfort, hunger and ignorance through innovations in science, technology, organizations, culture and governance, making us the most prolific top predator in our biosphere- and with the same wand, also gave us the power to eliminate much of life on earth as we know it, either deliberately through weapons of mass destruction, or inadvertently through our sheer numbers and over-consumption. Can we catalyse a global, second renaissance in time? For the past few centuries we have grown our global civilisation by burning fossilfuels for our energy needs and developing a global trading system based on a linear take/make/dispose business model that rewards ruthless efficiency and an obsession with accumulating stuff and money while generating incredible amounts of waste. This is the BAD system we are now transitioning out of, which historians and futurists alike call a “Level Zero” civilisation. We are now taking our first steps toward a “Level One” civilisation, powered by renewable energy, a circular economy and global collaboration. This is a risky time for our species and our biosphere, yet also a time of massive opportunity, as people wake up to the need to become less bad and better.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future To make the transition from “less bad” through “sustainable/better” and “net positive/good” to “thriveable/very good” involves identifying robust innovation pathways based on principles and metrics that clearly identify how to maximize the thriving of human and social capital for the least natural and manufactured capital footprint possible. The effective allocation of funds by capital markets to organizations, cities and projects that deliver thriveable innovation by harnessing their intellectual and financial capital to this end would then be much more likely, and the trillions needed to ensure we close the sustainability and sustainable development gaps much better targeted. As they say in popular music, “It’s a journey”. The journey from bad to less bad to better to good to very good, that gets us from going extinct in a dying level zero system to thriving as a level one global civilisation powered by the sun and human ingenuity.

The Journey to Good Most people, cities and organisations on our planet today are either in denial about the need to become more sustainable, or simply at a level of development where they cannot actually see the problem, and if they have heard of climate change, “green” branding and so on, they imagine that it is “someone else’s problem”. This is one of the main reasons that we are not seeing the progress we need to close the sustainability gap in time before we inflict serious damage on our planet and ourselves. 1. Business-as-Usual = Bad Of the 80 000 multinational corporations listed on stock exchanges or large enough to be publicly owned, perhaps 70 000 are simply somewhere between “Bad” and “Less Bad”. In other words, they are contributing (in many cases, mightily), to the fact that we are using up the resources of 1.6 planets every year when we only have one planet worth of resources available. The same can be said for most major cities and nations. Very few can be classed as “good” or “very good”, and most who are taking climate change seriously are moving from “bad” to “less bad”. Many of such organizations in the denial category are candidates for divestment or closure, and not considered in the ThriveAbility Approach as they are simply not interested in sustainability, or actively resisting it through lobbying and disinformation campaigns. The only thing that might change their minds is ever harsher environmental legislation, a carbon tax, a plummeting share price, a massive lawsuit or a series of disasters that trigger a change in management.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 2.

Improving = Less Bad

Due to pressure from governments, NGO’s, industry bodies, customers and the like, many organisations wake up to the fact that they are generating negative impacts and need to do something about that. The decision is made to become “less-bad” in the areas the pressure is being applied, and some attempt at conforming to the new rules or standards beyond the bare minimum required by most legal systems, is made. Perhaps 20% xviii of the 80 000 multinational organisations on our planet are making an effort to become less bad, though mainly in an incremental way which will require several decades for them to actually become sustainable. They still do not report on their sustainability efforts, but at least they have made a start to stop their worst excesses. 3

Sustainable = Better

Over the past few decades many organisations, cities and regions have made the journey from bad through less bad to aiming at sustainability. Perhaps 10% of the 80 000 multinational organisations on our planet are now measuring aspects of sustainability in their organisational systems and key performance indicators, and also reporting on their progress in many different ways. From the members of the UN Global Compact that submit reports to the Global Reporting Initiative reporters and beyond, we find examples of companies that are willing to also explore, define and submit information about the positive impacts of their products and /or services. They are not yet putting that into context with the remaining negative impacts, but they enlarge the scope to the lifecycle (LCA) or value cycle (circular economy concept) in order to start building data around a more systemic understanding of value (e.g. shared value concept). 4

Net Positive = Good

Net positive organisations aim to not only reduce their negative impacts, but aim to more than offset these negative impacts with the positive impacts the organization generates in other areas. Leading organisations such as InterfaceFlor are already close to achieving zero negative impacts, though this journey will still take several more years to complete. A tiny percentagexix of large organisations today are aspiring to being somewhere in the scale from “Zero Impact” to “Net Positive”, though the exact details of how Net Positive will be measured in each industry is still being worked out by some pioneering working groups comprising the leading organizations aspiring to Net Positive statusxx.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future It is worth quoting in full a part of the report by Forum for the Future on the advantages of a “Net Positive” approach: “The report – Net Positive: A new way of doing business – captures, for the first time, the principles of what it means to take a Net Positive approach and provides a route map to help businesses engage with the concept. It calls for the ambition of business to change from ‘doing less harm’ to becoming ‘Net Positive’ to have a positive impact on the world. The authors explain that a strong sustainability strategy helps businesses in many ways; enhanced reputation, increased sales, cost reduction and engaged staff. The report identifies that a Net Positive approach – where businesses demonstrate positive environmental or societal impacts in key areas of their operations – adds further benefits, including competitive advantage, supply security and the space to innovate products and services through moving the organization into a leadership spacexxi. 5

Thriveable = Very Good

This is a very positive development indeed, as it creates the conditions in which the next level of aspiration, “Thriving”, can emerge. “Thriving” would mean that all the key stakeholders of an organisation would be positively impacted by the organization’s activities, with zero negative footprint. In other words, such organisations would be “gross positive”. This may still be a distant dream for most organisations today, however there are already some small-scale examples of Thriving organisations in existence alreadyxxii . What Does a Regenerative, Distributive Economy Look Like? Imagine a world powered by renewable energy, where all human beings thrive in resilient habitats; where businesses operate in a circular economy that regenerates natural capital, without a particle of waste, and are led by enlightened leaders whose goal is to maximize the thriving of all their stakeholders; where each individual is empowered to pursue their passion and make a living in service to others; where governance systems are transparent, effective and wise in the ways in which they deliver their services to their communities and populations; and where intercultural appreciation and insight enriches the exchanges between the diverse worldviews and cultures embraced by humankind. Does that sound like an impossible dream, or pie in the sky? Every single one of these “pockets of the future” is currently observable in the present, right here and right now, somewhere in the world. It is just that the future is distributed unevenly, and sometimes hard to see when one is up to one’s neck in alligators and trying to drain the swamp.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future As we saw in chapter one and two above, the cornerstone capital on which the health of our world depends is social capital. This is why it forms the bedrock of Pathway One, Values and Visions. If we cannot trust each other, our corporations, governments and “leaders” to do the right thing, then our civilisation, such as it is, will fail. To synergise social capital we need to appreciate how it is formed through a mixture of all the other capitals that it is made up of: human, relationship, intellectual, infrastructure, manufactured, natural and financial. And also appreciate how this melange creates different kinds of value for different kinds of people. To make good happen we must design our organisations, products, networks and social institutions as autocatalytic, self-sustaining interactions between the eight capitals, in regenerative, distributive ways. We can use the six pathways to 2050 as a map to help position where we are and the next steps we must take on our respective journeys toward good.

Diagram 3 - The Journey to Good

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future

Mastering the Six Capabilities that Make Good Happen Individuals, teams, and groups that have developed the six capabilities that make good happen, make the journey to good possible. These six capabilities can be easily remembered using a pneumonic that sounds like something that is a cross between a village in Mali (SEFETO) and the telomeres at the end of each strand of DNA (MERES). Saying this out loud helps to engrave it on your memory: “SEFETOMERES”. In this part of chapter three we will dive into each of these six capabilities in turn, which are vital to map where you, your organization and networks are on the six pathways to a thriving future set out in chapter two above: •

SEE - Creative Imagination and Vision

•

FEEL - A Passion for Beneficial Change

•

TOUCH - Multi-stakeholder coalition building

•

MEASURE - Multi-capital context based metrics

•

REINVENT - Strategic business innovation

•

SCALE- Organization & Leadership

A. SEE - Creative Imagination and Vision Most of what is possible is limited by what we can “see” in our imaginations. Most of us are good at seeing in reality with our eyes, but it is only when our eyes are closed that we can explore the rich inner world that enables inner vision to be activated. We are all familiar with the world of dreams when we sleep, and the world of daydreams when we are awake. Creative imagination and vision exist as a hybrid between these different states, and can be triggered with appropriate creativity exercises and even virtual reality technologies. Human imagination and ingenuity have been at the forefront of our evolution as a species since time immemorial. What we call creativity and innovation today could not exist without our imagination and ingenuity. “What if…”, “How might we…”, “Imagine that…” are phrases which can make a very big difference in the way we perceive and work with current reality to create previously unimaginable future states. Historically it has been down to entrepreneurs to turn new discoveries and inventions into innovations that changed the world. Sometimes the scientist, © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future discoverer or inventor also played the role of the entrepreneur, such as was the case with Gutenberg, Edison, Zeiss, Ford, Marconi, Benz, Hewlett and Packard, Gates and Jobs, and many, many others. Over the past century, governments and corporations have invested heavily in research and development and the laboratories in which science can advance. Today R&D has taken over the discovery and invention role, while product and service developers and designers work with applied researchers to develop new products and services, which were then launched by the marketing department and sold by the sales department. In large organizations the need for transformation is always present, given how rapidly we human beings become comfortable in our roles. Our ability to habituate to a norm and then keep it “steady as she goes” is both a great strength as well as a massive weakness when faced with change, particularly the kind which creeps up slowly on us but in the longer term can be massively disruptive- for example, climate change, species loss, peak oil, peak soil, and so on. Hence the need for imaginative, often heretical individuals who have become adept at sticking their necks out without getting them chopped off in an organizational context. The ability to align the forces in and around an organization to support such individuals and their ideas and investment proposals is critical to enabling the very large, often slow moving beasts we know and love as multinational corporations, to adapt, transform and innovate in time. The critical challenges facing our natural and business ecosystems are a result of both ecological limits to growth for current levels of human population and consumption, and an evolutionary innovation challenge. Economics and sustainability theory and practice are both based upon a core assumption about a limited supply of resources that fails to account adequately for the transformative nature of human development, creativity and innovation. Innovation theory and practice demonstrate that what is considered a resource, and how resources are generated, changes regularly in evolutionary terms as natural, human and technical systems evolve. Thriveable, synergistic innovation and design is such an evolutionary force. The focus of sustainability on reducing negative environmental and social impacts is an important starting point, but lacks the motivators that drive innovation and design to create the breakthroughs we need for all life to thrive by 2050. Three Horizons We can only see as far as our own horizon, without the aid of technologies that enable us to gain altitude and see further. Through remote sensing carried out on

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future our behalf by satellites, space probes, drones in the air, on land and in the seas, we are able to see much further. But we can only see what currently exists, not what could be. This is why being able to see across three horizons is crucial to developing our imagination, foresight and innovative capabilities. Thinking in different horizons prompts you to go beyond the usual focus of fixing innovation just in the present. The Three Horizons Methodology connects the present with the desired future and identifies the ‘seen’ disruptions that might occur in moving towards a vision. This methodology lends itself well for mapping out the different horizons needed for synergistic innovations across the six pathways. It offers a helpful way for connecting your innovation activities over different horizons and navigating uncertainty more imaginatively. We need to clarify how to identify the existing prevailing or dominant system and the challenges to its sustainability into the future, i.e. the case for change (horizon 1). Innovation can lose the ‘fit’ aspects over time as the external environment changes. We also need to think through the desirable future state, the ideal system you desire and the emerging options in the adjacent possible spaces around your business or organization, including the substitutes that can displace what you already have. Often you can identify elements in the present that give you encouragement (horizon 3); keeping yourself open to all options that could lead to transformational change. In diagram 3 above, which explains the journey to good, the five stages of the shift from business-as-usual to thriveable “goodness” is described. There are four rows explaining the regime driving each stage, the sustainability mechanism each stage applies, the focus of each stage and the value system characterizing each stage. In the first two stages, ”Business-as-Usual” and “Improving”, Horizon 1 incremental innovations are the norm. In the third stage, “Sustaining”, Horizon 2 innovations that extend the core business into new technology/product/market areas are typical. In stages four and five, there will be increasing investment in Horizon 3 innovations that generate breakthroughs. The struggle is to draw out the nature of the tensions and dilemmas between vision and reality, and the distinction between innovations that serve to prolong the status quo and those that serve to bring the third horizon vision closer to reality (horizon 2); This is the space of transition, often unstable, called the intermediate space where views can collide and diverge. When you innovate, consider the following key challenges:

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future § § § § § § §

Balancing innovations that improve your current operations with those that drive breakthroughs; Extending your current competencies into new, related markets across the six pathways; Changing the nature of your industry to make good happen in ways that offer you a competitive advantage; Managing the different time dimensions of the three horizons innovation; Reducing the uncertainty associated with the unknowns of “over the horizon” innovations; Navigating the innovation “zone of uncertainty” as the future never stays the same; Capturing the options to allocate the necessary resources to build a robust portfolio of innovations across the three horizons that are synergistic and path dependent.

We so often struggle to articulate our innovation activity and then can’t project our plans into the future in consistent and coherent ways. If this ring’s true for your innovation activity in your organization, then it is in danger of being seen as isolated; one-off events that fail to link to your organizational strategy for the longer-term. Furthermore you’ll be missing, or not capitalizing on, emerging trends and insights where fresh growth opportunities reside. The 3H framework offers a perspective that accepts the need to both address the multiple challenges that occur in the first horizon, foster the seeds of the third and, allocate appropriate focus and resources to manage the transitions from one to another. What makes the model valuable to innovators is that it ‘accepts’ that competition is restless, markets are evolving and dynamic and that change is a constant. The three horizons approach offers the methodology for constructing plausible and coherent innovation activities projected out into the future. It looks for emerging winners. When combined with the Future Step strategic gaming methodology, the three horizons model provides a valuable evolutionary perspective that shapes strategic conversations to focus strategic decisions and clarify what resources are needed to develop a coherent portfolio of options projected into the future. When tested against different scenarios, such options can be strategically gamed to arrive at synergistic pathways that are robust and resilient, identifying emerging winners that can challenge and transform your existing business. The future survival and thriving of the human species depends upon our ability to co-create win/win/win social and organisational structures and habits that ensure

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Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future that we can scale sufficient sustainable innovations to meet our basic resource needs globally, while reducing our impact on the hardest to replace resources through reduced population growth and harmful consumption. Transformation integrates existing disciplines in creative ways, leading to innovative outcomes that are game changers. Personal and organisational transformation is one of the keys to a thriving future, which is why the second capability needed to make good happen is to FEEL. Diagram 4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Three Horizons

B. FEEL - A Passion for Beneficial Change While seeing further into the future requires pattern recognition abilities and a degree of creative intelligence in the seer, these abilities need to be complemented by the emotional energy to drive explorations that enable the changes and transformations needed, to happen. In other words, motivation and the emotional intelligence to know thyself and know others well enough to reach out and engage them while also learning from

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future and with them, is key. Here lie the roots of the ability to generate relationship capital, and to share knowledge and generate new knowledge through emergence. A passion for beneficial change implies that you are tuned into your context, whether it be local, regional, national or global. You have your finger on the pulse of what needs to change to make your world a better place, and the ability to reach out to people who can align with you in your cause, even if they may be very different to you in many ways. In diagram 3 above, which explains the journey to good, the five stages of the shift from business-as-usual to thriveable “goodness” is described. There are four rows explaining the regime driving each stage, the sustainability mechanism each stage applies, the focus of each stage and the value system characterizing each stage. The dominant value system driving each stage is shown, with opportunists and diplomats dominating in the business-as-usual stage where anything that detracts from making the maximum profit in the business, whatever the social or environmental consequences, is prohibited or penalised. They often have an ethnocentric or paternalistic culture where the powerful are in charge and obedience and loyalty are demanded from “the workers”. A passion for beneficial change that does not benefit the bosses is not appreciated, and often penalised. As an organization/community/network grows a conscience, it starts improving itself as a global citizen by ensuring it complies with prevailing social, governance and environmental regulations and trends. Such an entity attempts to mitigate the damage it causes, usually through a corporate social responsibility program and philanthropy. Experts and achievers, who harness scientific logic and quality programs to improve their organisations, usually dominate the value systems of such entities. The passion for beneficial change here is mediated through economic and scientific business cases and the ability to value natural and social capital. Individualists with a green, inclusive value system tend to drive the efforts of organisations and entities that seek to live within the nine planetary boundaries and honour the social floors of the locations they operate in. They are keen to repair the damage they and their industry have done, and also wish to make a contribution to future generations. A passion for beneficial change is usually a part of the culture in such entities and reaches out to the world at large. In net positive and thriveable entities, the passion for beneficial change is driven by leaders with the value system of strategists- who are able to transform both their own organization and their industry; and alchemists- who seek to bring about social transformations on a large scale through their activities.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Feeling implies not only being in touch with your own emotions and those of others, but also being able to being able to reach out and engage with others in social collaborations. In doing so we discover that others have different priorities and “bottom-lines” than we do, so it is valuable that in the effort to know ourselves and others better to be able to reach out and connect with them, to appreciate where you and those you engage with are coming from, or more colloquially, “where they are at”. What drives the evolution of human beings is the interplay between the growth and development of individuals, and their environment. Historically our environment dictated our life conditions, and it is only relatively recently (in the past few millennia), that we have been able to modify our environment to any significant extent. Scientists and historians are sufficiently impressed by our 21st century environment modifying abilities to name the geological age we are in the “Anthropocene”xxiii . The interplay between our environment and ourselves is mirrored in us by the interplay between our exteriors and interiors- our bodies and our minds. From an individual perspective we are able to track three key developmental stages. In the first two stages, pre-personal and personal, we are operating out of the reptilian brain and the limbic system respectively.xxiv The R-complex and limbic systems effectively correspond to System 0 (the core bodily functions), and System 1 (the intuitive, analogue intelligence which has often been called “right-brained”). The bridge from the personal to the transpersonal phases of development is the neocortex, which in man constitutes two-thirds of our brain. A person without a neocortex is essentially a “vegetable” as they kindly put it in the medical business, while a mouse without a neocortex can function normally for all intensive purposes, so the development of the functions of the neocortex is crucial for humans to evolve into responsible, conscious, choice-making citizens in the highly complex world we have evolved over the past few thousand years. We find System 2, the digital, procedural intelligence, emerging in this collaboration between System 0 and System 1, enabling us to program our actions and behaviours much more effectively, in the pursuit of specific goals, and in collaboration with others. In the transpersonal phase of development the pre-frontal and frontal cortices become new control centres which enable individuals to activate System 3, the “strategic psychological helicopter”, from which they are capable of getting an overview of the situation they are in and in which they are capable of being mindful and taking better decisions that benefit the greatest span of human beings while honouring the greatest depth in those individuals.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 1. Pre-personal Phase - in our first decade or so of life we develop through the pre-personal phase. In the developed world this stage results in the emergence of a self that is distinct from our family, and in the developing world a self that is distinct from our tribe. Our heroes during this stage of development are powerful, often impulsive, egocentric and, of course, heroic. During the pre-personal phase we believe in Santa Claus, magical-mythic spirits, dragons, beasts, and powerful people. In ancient times these were archetypal gods and goddesses, while in the 21st century we find super-heroes and their archenemies embodied in books and film, from Harry Potter to Lord of the Rings to Batman. While we are developing our rational faculties during this phase, unconscious motivations and magical thinking often characterize our behaviour. Dysfunction during these years can lead to issues arising throughout a lifetime. Challenging or primitive life conditions can also make it difficult for people to move beyond these developmental stages, and during times of war, famine, great hardship or personal difficulty, people often regress to these stages as mature adults. In such cases the family or the tribe is the ultimate shock absorber. 2. Personal Phase - At some point between being a child and becoming a teenager, we learn to be conscientious, responsible people, if all goes well, and experience a desire to conform to conventional norms and behaviours. With the emergence of our own conscious identity and rational mental faculties, we are now able to strike a balance between our intuitive (System 1) and reasoning thought (System 2) processes at a conscious level. We may even be experiencing some System 3 moments where we transcend ourselves and the situations we are in, gaining a helicopter perspective and perhaps even a “peak experience” with spiritual Aha! Moments. Modern educational systems, modern organizations and institutions and some religions are powerful forces in helping to shape such conventional and rational mental processes. Those who have been shaped by such systems often reach the achievement and Affiliative levels by their mid-twenties and form the majority of the population in most developed societies. Modern “civil” society is based upon conscious mental processes being activated and used on a daily basis by most people. 3. Transpersonal Phase - In the transpersonal realm one transcends and integrates all other developmental levels, moving through the authentic integral level to the transcendent and unity levels of higher consciousness. According to recent research, hundreds of millions of people are now actively exploring these transpersonal levels worldwide, while at least 1% of the world’s population is anchored at the transpersonal in their daily life.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future This is the great leap psychologist Clare Graves was talking about in 1970 as he reviewed his latest research results with Abraham Maslow and the rest of the American Psychological Association members. Such post-modern stages of development are the basis upon which an integral, global civilization could be built in the 21st century. I say could because: •

the billions of conformist and achievement oriented power holders would have to be sufficiently attracted to the possibilities that they are able to let go of some of their narrow belief systems and vested interests to give the newer systems and structures room to grow;

•

the hundreds of millions of affiliative, cultural creatives would need to become much more grounded and practical in their desire for transformation and demands for change, while also shedding the last remnants of their often narcissistic tendencies.

Much more can be said about this aspect of enacting our passion for beneficial change, and you will find further reading and exercises at the end of this chapter, along with some tests you can do to assess yourself and those you are reaching out to engage with to create beneficial emergence and breakthroughs. See also Chapter 4 on Stage Development models.

C. TOUCH - Multi-stakeholder Coalition Building Convening and shifting a multi-stakeholder coalition in the direction of “good” is a challenge. Whether it was the civil rights or anti-apartheid movement in the last century, or the campaigns to keep greenhouse gases below 350 ppm by 350.org or to end the use of fossil fuels, building multi-stakeholder coalitions is a difficult and arduous task. You, the teams, groups and organisations you interact with on a daily basis, all have boundaries of some kind. When such boundaries form a physically closed system, we call them a “container”. Every cell in every living creature has a cell wall that regulates what enters and exits the cell; your body has a skin and various openings and sensors/effectors that regulate what enters and exits or makes contact with your body. Nations have borders and national identities and systems, acting as containers for their nationals both in protecting their rights and enforcing their responsibilities. Organisations, especially corporations, have both physical containers that place boundaries around their operations and processes, and brands that symbolically represent the presence and promise of their products and services.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The Container tends to live at the “Tight” end of the “Loose-Tight” continuum, acting much as its name suggests, like a boundary of a system that defines its outer skin and interface with the world. Containers have interests (survival instincts, beliefs, worldviews) and identities (names, brands, values). No man, woman or system is an island, however. To survive and thrive, containers need to be interconnected through networks. Organising these networks is the job of “platforms”. Your cells are interconnected through your blood, nerves and lymphatic vessels. Our bodies are interconnected through systems offering us food, shelter, the opportunity to work and socialise. Cities, businesses, nations and corporations are interconnected through trading systems, information systems, transport systems and security systems. In diagram 5 below we see that containers and platforms are at the heart of the coalition building process. They are the “What” of the systems we seek to shift toward good. The “Why” and “How” are more complicated and complex. Diagram 5 – Convening and Shifting a Multi-Stakeholder Coalition: Building a Platform for Change

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future In building a coalition we are effectively creating a “Platform for Change”. The “Why?” and “How?” of that platform for change are embodied in the difference between the situation the stakeholders are currently in (the “current state”) and the situation the stakeholders would prefer to be in (“the desired state”). In social movements the current and desired states are usually clear- for example, replace apartheid with a system of one-man one vote. Or in the case of civil rights, equal rights and opportunities for all, regardless of skin colour, instead of racial discrimination. In businesses the desired state usually involves being more successful according to a variety of parameters. In making good happen so that all life on earth can thrive by 2050, using the map of the six pathways to 2050, the challenge we face is how to connect with and align those stakeholders that can make that journey possible, even if they have competing interests and differing worldviews and values. This involves convening and consulting the diverse stakeholders needed to make the desired shift happen. Such stakeholders will sometimes be found in the adjacent possible spaces around the container/s organising or leading the change. Yet it is also true that some of the most influential stakeholders are to be found well outside of the current orbit of the leaders of the platform for change. For containers to fulfil their purpose, they have to be physically tight, yet open for the exchange of information and energy. Platforms, on the other hand, live at the “Loose” end of the “Loose-Tight” continuum if they are “soft” like software, and at the tighter end if they are “hard”, like a platform at a train station that provides an interface between the street and a train. The multi-modal infrastructures for sea and air container shipping is another example of a hard platform that provides standardised interfaces to make shipping easier, simpler and more cost-effective. The global car industry is currently moving toward a set of global platforms that cut costs with economies of scale as millions of vehicles share parts. The massive platforms also spread the costs of product development and manufacturing tools over more vehiclesxxv. The same is true for aircraft, train and bus platforms. In computing, software, solutions and services, platforms have been around for a long time, enabling interconnectivity between machines, software packages and now cloud-based services, where most of the new platforms of the future are emerging. In practice there are few “pure” containers in developed economies, and no “pure” platforms. We might be able to find the odd small farm or business that contains everything it does in one location, but even then it has to source its inputs and sell its products on markets local and global. Global corporations, however, are increasingly moving to becoming more platform based than container based. © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future While in the past a multinational business could have hundreds of factories in different countries making very different products and services, without much or any overlap, today the trend toward global “hard” product platforms and “soft” service and solution platforms is well established. Containers function as the physical hubs in the networks of the global economy with standardisation around hard platforms, while virtual platforms have become the core hubs of the digital economy. Now the embedding of intelligence in infrastructure and manufactured capital in the fourth industrial revolution is blurring the lines between the two. Cities and regions and civil society organisations also exhibit both container and platform-like qualities. Although they have been slower to adopt digital age platforms than the business sector, that could change rapidly as we head into the mid 21st century. Both containers and platforms integrate all eight capitals in different ways, depending upon their economic/business models. Depending upon the sector they operate in, containers can vary from businesses in the Non-Renewable sector in fossil fuels and mining for example, to regenerative businesses in Food and Agriculture and the Services sector. Platforms in virtual sectors of the economy will tend to have lighter footprints than those in heavy industry and primary sectors. Being able to harness the human energies and flows of ideas, aspirations and capabilities generated in Pathways One (Values and Visions) and Two (Human Development) in thriveable ways, requires the next generation of governance, economics and finance platforms in Pathway Three (Thriveable Economies) to be able to embed true Future Value into the emerging global system. Connecting up pockets of the future in the present through the coalesced authority, power and influence of the innovators and visionaries emerging in our organisations and institutions enables rapid scaling and embedding of the most appropriate solutions wherever they “pop” into existence. This then provides the muscle and intelligence required to empower and accelerate the regeneration of our natural, infrastructure and manufactured capitals so as to create thriveable habitats for all the world’s people by 2050 through Pathways Four (A Flourishing Biosphere), Five (Resilient Habitats) and Six (Circular Manufacturing and Mobility). This combination of synergistic innovations and transitions is not entirely predictable in detail, but can be visualised in broad outline through scenarios and engaging with those stakeholders making it happen through approaches such as participative narrative inquiries. The innovation pathways embedded into © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Pathways One through Six also provide a set of reasonably confident trajectories that enable longer term investments to be made with some degree of assurance, despite the swings and roundabouts of short and medium term fluctuations. All of this has to be understood at different levels of scale, from the micro-levels of physics and chemistry through to the meso-scales of biology and psychology right up to the macro-scales of planetary, natural and social sciences. At higher levels of scale the chaos in lower levels systems usually emerges into order, while the complexity at each level of scale is built of components that go “all the way down”. To build and energise a platform for change that shifts the system we are interested in toward “better” or “good”, the five ingredients shown in diagram 5 above are key: •

Context – the trends and forces operating on and in any human system will produce distinct opportunities and threats for that “system-in-focus”, as the world changes around it. Everything else that happens in a synergistic innovation process will be shaped by such factors outside of the control of the system. Whether it be government regulations, tax authorities, wars, new markets opening up, trade agreements, climate change, technological and political shifts, the system will have to adapt to changes in its environment;

•

Combinations – the needs of people and markets, and the possibilities of the ways in which those needs can be met and even modified, drive the combinatorial dance between demand and supply in our economies. To give a simple example, if I am hungry in a small African village, the possibilities to satisfy my hunger will be limited to a range of local produce and local cooking methods to produce the local cuisine. A relatively simple menu of options, and hence combinations. If I am hungry in Shanghai or New York, then I will have tens of thousands of options and ways in which to satisfy my hunger in these much more complex economies. In other words, the more developed and complex an economy is, the greater the number of combinations one has to develop needs and satisfy them.

•

Constraints – natural and man-made constraints are everywhere we look, and much of the time we are unconscious of the most fundamental kinds of constraint. Until one tries to fly, for example, one is not so keenly aware of the constraint of gravity. But if gravity did not exist, we would have to invent it, as we can see from those astronauts trying to grab a meal in zero-gravity space flight, as they chase a blob of food around the cabin. In human systems, we find man-made constraints everywhere, from timetables to procedures to processes to budgets, plans, rules and laws. Man-made constraints are easier

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future to change than some of the fundamental natural constraints, luckily, so we can increase the number of variables for the design of synergistic systems by experimenting with the selective removal of constraints. Natural constraints are altered through hard scientific and technological breakthroughs – for example, electric and hydrogen vehicle platforms are now starting to be competitive with traditional fossil-fuel powered vehicle platforms. Such breakthroughs are most evident in Pathways Four, Five and Six where natural, infrastructure manufactured capitals continue to evolve in a regenerative direction. Man-made constraints are those most often encountered in Pathways One, Two and Three where the “anthro-capitals” of human, relationship, social and intellectual capitals can be modified through systemic redesign and through many local experiments in shifting mindsets, capacity generation and governance/economic systems. In fact, it is theoretically easier to crack the code of human designed systems that rely on often arbitrary rules and fashions, which become variables that can be played with, in comparison with the fundamental laws of nature. Luckily we have had a four-century start with the natural sciences, which has yielded incredible results. If only we could upgrade our social and human sciences to the same level, and integrate them more effectively with the natural sciences, we would be off to a great start. •

Catalysts – what triggers change, innovation and transformation in any container or platform, is a kind of catalyst. In chemistry or biology a catalyst is an agent that causes a reaction without getting used up in the process itself. Much of our physical economy would not be possible without the catalysts required to make the products and infrastructure we rely on daily. A catalyst can be an idea, a person/organization, or an event. Catalytic ideas in the past century in business have included mass production, mass consumption and marketing/advertising, digital and communications technologies, and the quality and sustainability movements. In civic and civil society, democracy, voting and equal rights for women, civil rights, the LGBTQ and environmentalism movements have been catalytic ideas. In the 20th century entire professions of catalytic change agents arose, from psychiatrists, psychotherapists and coaches to management consultants, leadership developers, business school professors and “management gurus” who prescribed solutions for all and sundry.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Events of all kinds can be catalysts too. Whether it was the way WW2 catalysed radar, aviation, computers and telecommunications, or the way Trumpism and Brexit are catalysing progressives to lobby and become much more politically active today, crises are an evolutionary accelerator. Precision in defining how one acts as a catalyst in a specific socio-technical context requires knowing the nature of the context and the possible combinations and constraints the specific container/platform is embedded in. What is its current state, where has it come from in the past, and where is it heading? What are the aspirations and frustrations of its stakeholders? The role of a catalyst is potentially infinite, from calming or slowing a situation down to speeding it up, to clarifying its future options to generating foresight into how its world is changing; from analysing and improving the processes and systems in a container/platform to designing and building entirely new processes and platforms; from helping to kill/hospice failed ideas and dying parts of the systems, to co-designing breakthrough innovations. Sometimes the catalyst is called a facilitator; other times a strategist, or a designer or systems architect; other times they are leadership developers, or change agents; human resources consultants or marketing and financial consultants; actuaries and experts on risk; production engineers; cost reduction consultants and business growth consultants; sustainability advisors; NGO’s and civil society organisations – pick a topic, a function or a discipline and you will find a catalyst of one kind or another. •

Connections – the network of relationships in which a container/platform is embedded is critical to its viability and success. From a start-up trying to scale itself into a medium sized then large organization, to the mature business or government department responsible for a specific mission, having good connections is vital. Ironically, this is one aspect of leadership and management that is seldom taught, and generally gets learned “on the job”. Relationship capital is probably the most vital capital in any form of human activity, yet it is also the most neglected in terms of formal training and development.

The first three “C’s”- Contexts, Combinations and Constraints, operate from the “Outside In” on containers and platforms, as they are generally outside the control of any one container/platform. The second three “C’s”- Containers, Catalysts and Connections, operate from the “Inside Out” as they are more within the control of those leading the platform for change. In practice, the ability to SEE further through creative imagination and vision, and to FEEL a passion for beneficial change that resonates with multiple stakeholders, © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future will enable or constrain the ability of a change initiative to TOUCH and engage those multiple stakeholders in effective ways. The ability to build a coherent case for change that articulates the WHAT, WHY, HOW, WHO and WHEN of change, provides the golden thread that integrates and drives the change process.

D. MEASURE - Context Based, Multi-capital, Synergistic Metrics When you make a decision, how do you know if the outcome will be better, good or very good? Can you just trust your intuition? Or do you just go with the flow and do what everyone else does, because that is relatively “safe”. Evidence suggests that most people take the path of least resistance in their lives, simply because it takes time and energy to gather the information to make better decisions. That might sound like a death knell for our species, given the trajectory we are currently on. Yet there is hope. We are also a very curious species, and given the right conditions, we are social learners who will also copy good behaviour with good outcomes. And with social and other media sensitising and informing us as to “what’s up” around the world, we can begin to see a link between our actions and outcomes. Of course we do not have to, nor do we want to, measure everything in our lives, a fairly joyless prospect. When it comes to world changing outcomes however, knowing the consequences of our actions should be the norm. So what do we mean when we talk about • • •

Context Based, Multi-Capital, Synergistic Metrics?

Let’s put this into simple terms everyone can understand: Context-Based Metrics While businesses, governments and cities have been working at becoming more sustainable for over half a century, their efforts have amounted to only a very small actual improvement in our situation. Give that 2 August 2017 marked Earth Overshoot Day this year, we are now living off resources needed to keep future generations alive until New Year’s Eve. And this day arrives earlier every year. Not good. Very bad, indeed.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The problem has been that for decades we have not had enough decision makers aware of the consequences of their actions, and the desire to be held accountable for them, despite the information being available. This is called the “sustainability context gap”, because governments and businesses could claim to be “more sustainable” when they were actually just becoming “less bad”. The sustainability context group has been advocating for all sustainability reporting to be context based. In other words, companies (and cities or anyone else reporting on their progress for that matter), should put their sustainability metrics and reports into the context of what is needed for a safe and just operating space for humanity. Diagram 6 below illustrates what this “safe and just operating space for humanity” looks like. It is an example of the “doughnut model” developed by Kate Raworth of Oxford, showing how the environmental ceilings and social floors need to be honoured by those moving toward sustainability. The doughnut in light green is the safe and just operating space for humanity, while the ecological overshoot is shown in dark red together with the shortfall in social foundations. Scientists at the Stockholm Resilience Institute scientifically quantify the ecological overshoot, while the social shortfalls are quantified by NGO’s such as Oxfam and the UN agencies. The difficult part is getting companies, cities and governments to take responsibility for their “fair share” of the work and investment required to reduce ecological overshoot and social shortfalls caused by their activities. Although many experts are working on addressing this challenge, some kind of mechanism to get agreement on what “fair share” means needs to be developed and agreed. This happened on greenhouse gas emissions in the Paris Climate Accord in 2015, when countries were encouraged to develop their own Intended Nationally Defined Contributions to reducing GHG emissions causing global warming. Unfortunately, these commitments would still lead to more than 3C degrees warming, while the agreed safe limit for warming is actually 1.5C degrees.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 6 – A Safe and Just Operating Space for Humanity – Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Model

In the corporate world we face a similar challenge. Global initiatives such as the GRI (Global Reporting Initiative), the IIRC (International Integrated Reporting Council) and the GISR (Global Initiative for Sustainability Ratings) all recognise the context-based reporting principle, but in practice most of their members and those using their guidelines are not implementing this principle in their data, accounting and reporting systems.

The Reporting 3.0 initiative is tackling this challenge through its data, accounting and reporting blueprints, through the support of several dozen leading corporations and standards organisations. There is some good news: with transparency increasingly the foundation in corporate reporting, some 300 companies, including Dell, Sony and Tesco, have committed to set emissions reduction targets in line with climate science. They are

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future getting well ahead of the curve in preparing themselves for the changes ahead, setting out a clear pathway to future-proof growth and positioning themselves to capitalize on the opportunities ahead. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures xxvi (TCFD) is developing voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders. The final Recommendations report of the TCFD received support from over 100 businesses spanning numerous industries globally. The Task Force is considering the physical, liability and transition risks associated with climate change and what constitutes effective financial disclosures across industries. It’s work and recommendations will help firms understand what financial markets want from disclosure in order to measure and respond to climate change risks, and encourage firms to align their disclosures with investors’ needs. The big question is how fast can these initiatives scale-up to include the 100 companies that produce 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the tens of thousands of global corporations and state owned enterprises that continue with business-as-usual? Multi-Capital Metrics Ever since Karl Marx wrote his now famous critique of capitalism, “Das Kapital” in 1867, “Capital” has been understood as an important driver of industrialisation and globalisation, with both positive and negative consequences. Many critics now tell us that we live in the last stages of capitalism, and that a post-capitalist society is just around the corner. In the sense that “Capital” means financial capital, or money only, they may all turn out to be right. There are literally thousands of books and articles on this heated debate, which I briefly summarised in Pathway Three above (A Thriveable Economy), and in “A Leader’s Guide to Thriveability”xxvii and “Synergise! 21st Century Leadership”xxviii . We do not have time or space to go into those debates here, but for our purposes the bottom-line is that mono-capitalism (focused on financial capital and its returns only, at the expense of natural, human and other capitals) is evolving into multi-capitalism, where the capitalist system would regenerate and distribute all the critical capitals needed for all life on earth to thrive by 2050. The IIRC (International Integrated Reporting Council) recommended in 2013 that all financial accounts and sustainability reports (known as “integrated reports” now), should consider the impact of the activities of the business being reported on through the lens of six capitals: financial, natural, human, social, intellectual and manufactured. While the ins and outs of financial capital are now well established

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future after several centuries, natural and human capitals are still being defined in more accurate ways that make it possible for those using multi-capital accounting to aim for the safe and just operating space for humanity inside the “doughnut”. Since the first six capitals were defined, those working with multi-capital frameworks have added two additional capitals: relationship and infrastructure capitals. This is why we use eight capitals in the thriveability and synergistic innovation multi-capital frameworks and equations. Multi-capital metrics operate as a set of constraints on a human activity, that keep the impact of that activity moving toward the centre of the doughnut- the safe and just operating space for humanity. In this way they avert the worst effects of environmental damage, bad governance and inhumane treatment of people. The way this is done, however, tends to be line item by line item- carbon, water, human rights, supply chain management, regulatory capture, biodiversity impacts, waste management, business ethics and so on- there are 84 of these line items in the GRI reporting requirements, which map to similar items in the SASB (Sustainable Accounting Standards Board) reporting requirements. Even the most advanced forms of multi-capital reporting, such as the Crown Estate’s contribution methodology, works line item by line item across six capitals. In real life, there are trade-offs, complementarities and synergies between the capitals. For example, investing more in human capital by training people may actually increase the lifespan of infrastructure capital due to better maintenance, to take a simple example. Or regenerating natural capital might not only motivate staff and help them perform better, it might also yield financial capital benefits. Because multi-capital reporting evolved as a form of reducing harm rather than as a means of innovating, this legacy continues, resulting inevitably in a “less bad” risk averse approach, rather than a way of shaping and rewarding activities and synergies that lead to breakthroughs. This is why we need synergistic metrics that build upon context-based, multicapital approaches, that can help deliver breakthroughs.

Synergistic Metrics The six pathways to a thriveable 2050 in this book are based on eight capitals, which are related to each other in a causal sequence that generates the synergies we need for breakthrough innovations. Here is the sequence through the six pathways explained.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Being able to harness the human energies and flows of ideas, aspirations and capabilities generated in Pathways One (Values and Visions- Social Capital) and Two (Human Development- Human Capital) in thriveable ways, requires the next generation of governance, economics and finance platforms in Pathway Three (Thriveable Economies- Financial Capital) to be able to embed True Future Value into the emerging global system. Connecting up pockets of the future in the present through the coalesced authority, power and influence of the innovators and visionaries emerging in our organisations and institutions enables rapid scaling and embedding of the most appropriate solutions wherever they “pop” into existence. This then provides the muscle and intelligence required to empower and accelerate the regeneration of our natural, infrastructure and manufactured capitals so as to create thriveable habitats for all the world’s people by 2050 through Pathways Four (A Flourishing Biosphere- Natural Capital), Five (Resilient HabitatsInfrastructure Capital) and Six (Circular Manufacturing and MobilityManufactured Capital). The “Future Glue” that integrates all six capitals into social and business models that lead to a regenerative, distributive world-system, comprises Relationship and Intellectual/knowledge Capitals. Through the trust we build through our networks of relationships, and the ideas and initiatives we co-generate, we make good happen and shift our world and ourselves into a more thriveable future through synergistic innovations. This combination of synergistic innovations and transitions is not entirely predictable in detail, but can be visualised in broad outline through scenarios and engaging with those stakeholders making it happen through approaches such as participative narrative inquiries. The innovation pathways embedded into Pathways One through Six also provide a set of reasonably confident trajectories that enable longer term investments to be made with some degree of assurance, despite the swings and roundabouts of short and medium term fluctuations. All of this has to be understood at different levels of scale, from the micro-levels of physics and chemistry through to the meso-scales of biology and psychology right up to the macro-scales of planetary, natural and social sciences. At higher levels of scale the chaos in lower levels systems usually emerges into order, while the complexity at each level of scale is built of components that go “all the way down”. You will note the centrality of values and visions in Pathway One. This is without doubt, the highest leverage point in the system. But in reality all six pathways co-

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future evolve simultaneously, as life conditions generate crises and opportunities that open up new value systems and generate new visions and possibilities. Synergistic approaches and breakthroughs are highlighted both in chapter two above on the six pathways, as well as in more detail with 80 colour illustrations in “Synergise! 21st Century Leadership”xxix . The ThriveAbility Equation, highlighted in both Synergise! and “A Leader’s Guide to Thriveabilityxxx” is also designed to force a consideration of the trade-offs and synergies between two very different kinds of capitals: the “soft” anthro-capitals (human, relationship, social and intellectual) and the “hard” bio-physical capitals (natural, infrastructure and manufactured). The goal of being able to thrive (i.e. being “thriveable”), is to synergise the anthrocapitals to their maximum value of thriving, while reducing the inputs of biophysical capitals needed to a minimum within the “doughnut”. In other words, the goal is not simply to do less harm, but to focus on doing good- or making good happen, as this book suggests. Synergies do not emerge automatically- they are the product of a strategic innovation process, informed by seeing, feeling, touching and measuring as we’ve outlined previously in these pages. They also require the ability to reinvent technologies, products, services, organisations and societies.

E. REINVENT – Strategic Innovation Capabilities With the foresight that comes from being able to SEE further into the future and creatively imagine the previously unimaginable, plus the ability to FEEL a passion for beneficial change that resonates with others and is contagious, together with the ability to TOUCH key stakeholders in ways that build aligned multistakeholder coalitions, and the ability to MEASURE in context-based, multicapital, synergistically innovative ways, we also need to know how to REINVENT our current ways of doing things by developing our strategic innovation capabilities.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 7 – The Reinvention Loop – Triggering Radical Innovation Capabilities

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future What we learn from the tens of thousands of volumes published on change, transformation and innovation, is that mindsets and cultures are the key enablers and constraints on the human ability to create beneficial new discoveries, technologies, products, services, business and governance models. The larger and more successful an organisation or institution becomes, the more likely it is to have an entrenched culture and leadership mindset that confirms the old adage: “Nothing fails like success”. Which is why, despite the huge amounts spent on R&D by large corporations and governments every year, many of the biggest breakthroughs originate in smaller organisations and start-up or crisis situations. Hence the famous “S-curve” which describes the stages any genuinely new innovation goes through: first the early adopters experiment with the cool new thing; if enough well connected early adopters communicate the benefits of the cool new thing to their friends, it is possible for the innovation to “cross the chasm” between the early adopters (who don’t mind that the new thing is imperfect and requires effort to master), and the early majority, who are only interested in reaping the benefits of the cool new thing if they do not have to expend too much effort, and if its price is equal to or lower than the existing technology/product/service they are currently using. As the innovation matures it attracts the late majority, and then, finally, the laggards. Think of the mobile phone. In 1986 there were a few brave early adopters lugging large battery sized “portables” around with them, attracting the scorn of their fellow diners and colleagues. By 1996 the early majority was buying the world’s most popular Nokia and Motorola phones, and it was considered “cool” to have a mobile phone that could fit easily into your pocket. By 2006, the iPhone changed all that, leading to the smart phone now becoming the “cool new thing”. Now, in 2017, half the planet has a smartphone or mobile phone. There were several “S-curves” along the way, with the older technologies going extinct as the newer S-curves rode the next upwave. In diagram 7 above, we can see both sides of the innovation cycle: the “back loop” of radical innovation where geeky start-ups rule and or where brave intrapreneurs stick their necks out for radical new ideas whose time has come; and the front loop, where incremental innovation is used to keep mature technologies/products/services fresh and alive. Looking at a rapid succession of S-curves showing the lift-off and demise of successive waves of innovations, fails to tell the story of the systemic nature of this process at organisational, business ecosystem and social levels. It is this systemic process that can be both recognised and managed as a portfolio of innovation projects that can make reinvention a systemic rather than a haphazard process. © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Let us take a well-known global corporation as an example of such a system of reinvention. Apple has ridden several major S-curves since its inception in 1976. It started out as a plucky start-up making personal computers, and rode that wave for two decades, reinventing itself through the Macintosh and then the iMac over the decades. Apple has navigated the five steps of the Reinvention Loop (“the Loop”) several times in its 40 years history. Some of these trips around the Loop involved major changes in strategic direction and leadership. For example, the dispute between Jobs and Sculley in 1985 which led to the Apple board firing Jobs, centred around Sculley’s strategy to make Apple more profitable by focusing on making existing products more profitable (the “front loop” of incremental Innovation) versus Jobs’ obsession with disrupting existing Apple products with his Macintosh division, which was making major losses at the time (the “back loop” of radical innovation). Then, in 1994, the Apple board fired Sculley himself when his plans for the Newton PDA backfired due to poor handwriting recognition and other flaws in the Newton. It turned out that the market was not quite ready for the Personal Digital Assistant, which would take another decade before its lift-off. Apple went through a number of years in the wilderness, rapidly losing market share to Microsoft, while Jobs had been spending his years in the wilderness developing new operating systems (Next) and new ideas that would shape the future of personal and mobile computing and telephony. In 1997, after spending a number of failing years in the Loop, Apple brought back Steve Jobs as CEO. During the next 14 years until he left the CEO position in 2011, Jobs would completely reshape Apple. Starting with the original iMac in 1998, followed by the introduction of the successful iPod music player in 2001 and iTunes Music Store in 2003, Apple established itself as a leader in the consumer electronics and media sales industries. Apple’s introduction of its iOS range of smart phone, media player, and tablet computer products that began with the iPhone, followed by the iPod Touch and then iPad made Apple the largest publicly traded corporation in the world by market capitalization by 2015. What Jobs had learned between 1985 and 2011 was the art of synergistic innovation, weaving together consumer needs and technological trends into a desirable web of products and services that made communicating and being entertained easier, more fun and more affordable for billions of people. In his years in the wilderness learning about the entertainment industry at Pixar and the music industry, Jobs returned to Apple with the capabilities that enabled him to navigate the Reinvention Loop imaginatively and successfully for 14 years. In handing over to Tim Cook as CEO, Jobs effectively cemented the front loop of

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future incremental innovation in place, having built a, for now, unassailable position in the global market for consumer electronics and media products and services. How long can that last? Let us take a look at the opportunities to reinvent key industries. There is a conundrum in this reinvention process, as the industries and organisations that pose they greatest threat to humanity, while also offering us our greatest hope for a viable future if they are transformed, lie in Pathways Four, Five and Six; while the actual power and influence to demand and drive this transformation lie in the sectors that are closest to citizens and consumers, in Pathways One, Two and Three. To tackle the immediate bio-physical challenges we face, let us begin with Pathways Four, Five and Six: Pathway Four – A Flourishing Biosphere- the sustainability success stories of the past few decades seem to be dominated by the front loop of incremental innovation, perhaps influenced by the process-based nature of many of the world’s most polluting industries- Oil & Gas, Coal, Metals & Mining, Iron & Steel Producers and Construction Materials, for example. This Non-renewable Resources sector accounts for a large proportion of current greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, as well as impacts on water resources and local communities. We need to ensure we work with the web of life to preserve and regenerate our scarce natural capitals in Pathway Four, resulting in a flourishing biosphere and healthy agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Synergistic innovation here is needed in carbon capture and storage, nano-technologies for new, renewable materials, as well as replacements for cement, concrete and steel in building materials and recycling/reuse. Regenerative agriculture, fisheries and forestry practices are also a top priority. Pathway Five – Resilient Habitats- On the other hand, we see the front-loop of reinvention and radical innovation most clearly in the Renewable Resources & Alternative Energy Sector - which includes Biofuels, Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Geothermal Energy, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy Project Developers, Independent Power Producers and Traders, and the Forestry & Paper Industries. It is vital that growth in this sector is exponential, to ensure that the reductions needed in the use of non-renewable resources to achieve a 2 degree warming scenario or less is possible. Synergistic innovation here is needed in the biology of biofuels, breakthroughs in renewable energy capture and storage, and the development of efficient markets for financing and scaling this sector into the future supplier of all our energy sources. Developing Pathway Five resilient habitats that are carbon and water © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future neutral and help transform the renewable energy, power and construction sectors require massive infrastructure capital investments before 2030. In the Infrastructure Sector – which includes Integrated Power Utilities, Electric, Gas, and Water Utilities, Waste Management, Infrastructure Construction, Architecture, Engineering & Construction, Home Builders, Real Estate Owners & Developers and Real-Estate Investment Trusts. Synergistic innovation here is focused around zero or positive energy infrastructure and buildings, together with power and water utilities that are zero or positive in their greenhouse gas emissions. Retrofitting of existing buildings is also an important ingredient in dramatically reducing energy usage, as well as repurposing buildings for vertical farming and other urban regeneration approaches. Pathway Six - Circular Manufacturing and Mobility - Similar logic applies to the Resource Transformation Sector –(what we used to call “Heavy Industry”), and includes Chemicals, Aerospace and Defense, Electrical/ Electronic Equipment, Industrial Machinery & Goods and Containers and Packaging. In Pathway Six circular manufacturing, biomimicry and cradle-to-cradle practices are badly needed to ensure these industries waste not a single particle. Synergistic innovation in this sector revolves around green chemistry, circular supply chains and reductions in energy and materials use. Nano-tech and biotech are also playing a key role along with advanced electronics and 3D manufacturing in removing the “heaviness” from heavy industry, which is an essential supplier to other sectors. In the Transportation Sector - which includes Automobiles, Auto Parts, Car Rental & Leasing, Airlines, Logistics, Marine, Rail and Road Transportation, Synergistic innovation requires fleets of electric and hydrogen vehicles, shared mobility solutions such as autonomous vehicles and ride/car-sharing, plus weight reduction/reduced drag and renewable energy solutions for transport providers, to name a few. In the Technology & Communication Sector - which includes Electronic Manufacturing Services & Original Design, Software & IT Services, Hardware, Semiconductors, Telecommunications and Internet Media And Services, Synergistic innovations include massive energy reductions in manufacture and use of data centres, computers and in mobile telephony, nano-tech breakthroughs in lighter/cheaper materials as well as innovative concepts in internet media and services that support thriveable apps and lifestyles.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The relevance of sectoral and industry analysis for synergistic-innovation and thriveable outcomes is that all innovation requires some core competencies and capabilities to add true future value. While NGO’s and public sector organisations are good at problem spotting and the provision of Band-Aid level solutions to these problems, the deeper work of synergistic-innovation is to search for and implement multi-capital based solutions that are both sustainable and thriveable. This requires fresh business models that are usually more bottom-up and inclusive, because they distribute power and possibility to the masses. It is in Pathways One, Two and Three that we find the greatest power to transform bio-physical pathways Three, Four and Five. The amount of “value-added” rises as we move up the chain from the primary through the secondary and to the tertiary sectors. The amount of leverage we have to change and transform the economy and society for True Future Value is highest in the Governance and Financial sectors- and similarly for the Healthcare and Service sectors, including Education. While exponential technologies are capable of transforming the primary and secondary sectors as well, they tend to do this through integrated offerings that include an informational/communications component that emerges in the tertiary sectors. Pathways Three, Four and Five reflect the bio-physical nature and impacts of the industrial economy and its outputs, while Pathways One, Two and Three reflect the “bio-psycho-socio-informatic” nature of the emerging 21st century economy. In Pathway One – Values and Visions, the governance and service industries that structure and regulate our local, regional, national and trans-national governing institutions, hold the power to define and articulate the values and visions we as a species and as nations and communities believe will create a viable future for all of us by 2050. As Al Gore reminds us: “Political will is a renewable resource”. Rebuilding our social capital around a transformative agenda that operates at all levels from the local to the global, redefining the good life in turn, will be critical. Despite the current attempts by many of the most amoral and wealthiest people buying governments to protect their dirty monopolies, if enough awake and aware people resist and reform our democratic systems, the global consensus that demands we limit global warming to less than 2 degrees is growing and will soon become irresistible to all but the most evil demagogues on our planet. Open, Regenerative, Distributive Societies have their roots in good communities and movements that make good happen. This local organising power when combined with national and global meshworks of organisations and movements has the power to move us toward thriving, ethical cultures eventually. The only

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future question is: will that be soon enough, before the unstoppable momentum of climate change kicks in? In Pathway Two – Human Development, developing our human capital to meet the basic needs of all is driven by the healthcare, education and service industries. Improving human wellbeing should be the priority of the Health Care Sector including Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Medical Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Delivery, Health Care Distributors and Managed Care. New models of preventive and functional medicine that prioritise affordable care for all rather than hyper-expensive care for the wealthy, will increasingly be demanded as the excessive profits and malfeasance of many of the greediest players in this sector are increasingly made transparent for all to see. The Services Sector is a very wide ranging set of activities, including Education, Professional Services, Hotels & Lodging, Casinos & Gaming, Restaurants, Leisure Facilities, Cruise Lines, Advertising & Marketing, Media Production & Distribution, Cable & Satellite. The role of education in fostering life-long learning is key, and the growth of online learning and low-cost access to knowledge through digital and creative media is a welcome trend. Many of our leisure activities and facilities will need to reinvent themselves in the model of the eco-tourism industry, which has grown dramatically in the past few decades as awake and aware consumers have come to appreciate the benefits of such enjoyable and responsible activities. Redefining the good life and redesigning it will also need the full support and creativity of the advertising, marketing and media industries, who play such a powerful role in shaping the wants and needs of the general public. Pathway Three – Thriveable Economies - is dominated by the Financial Sector, including Commercial Banks, Mortgage Finance, Investment Banking & Brokerage, Security & Commodity Exchanges, Asset Management & Custody Activities, Insurance and Consumer Finance. The economic policies and priorities of central, regional and local governments set the scene for what is possible, and how “good” is defined through trade, industrial and monetary frameworks and institutions. If banking and insurance are well regulated, they can be a great force for good, and if badly regulated, they can wreak havoc on nations and economies. We have paid a very high price for the forty plus years of excessive deregulation and privatisation launched by Thatcher and Reagan in the early 1980’s, with historic levels of inequality of wealth and income, worse than before the Great Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Policies that encourage unsustainable economic growth on a planet of finite biophysical resources are equally damaging. A complete rethink of economic policies is required to redefine what healthy growth looks like, and how industrial, innovation and trade policies can help reshape our economies. Combined with the trend toward robotisation and artificial intelligence reducing the number of jobs available in most developed economies, we face a perfect storm of unemployment, migration and low growth in the next few decades, unless green and inclusive policies are used to trigger healthier growth and more meaningful work. Innovations in alternative and local currencies, localisation of economic activities and trade and regenerative, distributive government policies should help the financial and governance sectors to focus their investment on projects that help make good happen, rather than facilitate the collapse of human civilisation as we know it. Money, properly understood, is not only a measure of value and a unit of exchange, but also the most powerful fertiliser known to our species. We need to ensure that it fertilises the right kinds of healthy growth.

F. SCALE- Organization & Leadership “It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.” Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince How can we scale healthy growth? There are two very different kinds of growth in our world, following two very distinct kinds of laws: •

Bio-physical Growth- natural laws both enable and constrain what kinds of growth are possible in bio-physical systems. Although we are still discovering new laws of how nature operates, and tweaking those laws with our scientific and technological discoveries and inventions, the state-of-the-art of our knowledge and capabilities accumulate steadily. We embed our capabilities to grow crops, aquaculture, forests, farm animals and build habitats in infrastructure and manufactured capitals;

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

Social and Knowledge Growth – for the most part, in healthy societies, we structure our communities, cities, organisations and nations according to human-made laws, based on what has worked well for us historically. Humanmade laws can be changed quickly as situations change and the need arises, especially when it is clear that our current way of doing things is failing. Yet changing human institutions, as anyone who has attempted to do so can attest, is a slippery and difficult affair- something Machiavelli knew very well from first-hand experience.

The concept of SCALE is of of the more popular topics in any conversation involving how we can make good happen. Whatever the topic, it can be sure to end with a remark such as: “And of course, we need to scale this as quickly as possible!” While this is not the time or place to get into a detailed discussion of the origins, pros and cons of scaling and its related concepts and practices, the original idea is quite fundamental to how we have organised ourselves since the times of the Renaissance and the growth of colonial Empires. Scaling is fundamental to industrial capitalism, and bio-physical growth. When growth hits and overshoots bio-physical limits, however, scaling needs to be re-examined closely. This would be a good moment to set out some basic principles of what might constitute healthy scaling. Principles of Healthy Scaling to Make Good Happen The old industrial model, which scaled initially through the reach of colonial Empires, required disciplined troops, colonists, missionaries and traders who believed there was one right way of doing things, and that way was obviously their own. As indigenous peoples who did not speak our languages or appreciate our inherent superiority discovered, this was not a consensual arrangement, as Jared Diamond makes clear in his extensive work on this subject, especially in “Guns, Germs and Steel”. Today we are not colonised by foreign powers- as Mary Douglas put it: “The colonization of each other's minds is the price we pay for thought.” Our consent is manufactured by a subtle system of carrots and sticks which lead us to believe we are the sovereign decider making choices from a variety of goods, services and political opinions and promises. Mass production requires mass consumption to create demand for the products and services that we have spent centuries scaling up to deliver a cornucopia of comfort and pleasure. And now with our digital economy, we also benefit from mass customisation. The promise of a better life has been the mantra of capitalism since the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, and now this promise has gone global. © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Religions, movements, governments, corporations, entrepreneurs, the selfimprovement industry and the industry of hidden persuaders in advertising, marketing and public relations all offer a variety of different paths to your own special version of paradise. But paradise for whom? Who gets to define the good, the true, the beautiful and the just? Which leads us to some principles to begin this urgent conversation: •

Conscious Collaboration, Consent and Choice – as far as possible (which is very far these days with ubiquitous communications, networks and multi-stakeholder consultations), individuals and their representatives need to be trusted to define their real needs, and offered an appropriate range of choices before they consent to collaborate with anyone who stands to benefit from their consent. (The 21st century equivalent of “No taxation without representation”).

•

Scale-up Good Things – We need to scale up the good, scale down the bad. For example, renewable energy and resources, regenerative agriculture, forestry and fisheries, free/affordable medical care all need to be scaled up. Fossil fuels, degenerative agriculture, forestry and fisheries, need to be scaled down, to zero as soon as possible. (This is simply common sense if we wish to survive).

•

What Scale is Needed for this Function? For example, how many solar and wind farms does the world need to thrive? Where? Run and Owned by Whom? Relative to what other sources of renewable energy? Is this something that is better done locally, city-wide, nationally, globally? (The equivalent of the principle of subsidiarity deployed by the EU, which states that whatever can be dealt with at a local level, should be. If higher levels of co-ordination are required then deal with matters at that level).

•

What is the Right Size for You? Given your own priorities, how big a role do you want to play in scaling up whatever you are involved in? Given your skills and ability to contribute positively, what size fits you best? Avoid getting too quickly out of your depth as much as possible, while still aiming high.

•

Focus on the Quality of Leadership, Governance and Culture - Whatever the decision process that ultimately gets to decide what to scale, when, for whom and how, the quality of leadership, governance and culture that makes those decisions is critical. Investing in better quality in these areas is vital to making good happen. Purpose, people and process come before strategy, competencies and systems.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

Design Organisations and Institutions from an Integral Perspective – Recognising the co-evolution of consciousness, competencies, cultures and creations matters more than becoming fixated on one or other organisational form- one size does not fit all, generally, no matter how hard we may attempt to colonise others with our preferred way of doing things. Different functions require different forms. Go back to the first principle if in doubt.

•

Empowering others to Scale-up Involves both Rights and Responsibilities – There are no rights without corresponding responsibilities. Apply the ThriveAbility Equation to determine the goodness of an outcome if in doubt. Multi-stakeholder, multi-capital, context-based metrics can help point us to what is good, true beautiful and just in any situation.

•

Match Levels of Scale with Levels of Development - Later stages of human development can span greater horizons of time, space and complexity, and are therefore more suitable to lead and manage larger scale initiatives and entities.

Which now brings us to the end of Chapter 3, and some further exercises and reading, before we plunge into the final chapter on making good happen.

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CHAPTER THREE – EXERCISES NOTE – PLEASE FEEL FREE TO USE BLANK WHITE PAPER TO COMPLETE THOSE EXERCISES WHERE YOU DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH SPACE BELOW. 1.

MAPPING PATHWAY INNOVATIONS OR BREAKTHROUGHS Map any innovations or breakthroughs you are aware of onto one or more of the six pathways. Build on your answers to the exercises in chapter one and two. (Find examples in E.REINVENT above to get you going)

Where are you/your community/organization/city/country on the Journey to Good? What potential do you have to move to the right on your journey? (see the Journey to Good above for the map).

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Can you measure you own ecological footprint? What about your community/ organization/ city/ country?

Who are the key stakeholders you would need to align to make progress on your journey to good? What would incentivise them to share part of that journey with you?

KEY LEARNINGS FROM THIS CHAPTER – What are the top three things you’ve learned?

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CHAPTER THREE – FURTHER READING Synergise! 21st Century Leadership by Dr Robin Wood 4. HOW WE CAN - SIX SHIFTS 4.1. What do we Need to Be, Know & Do to Survive & Thrive in the 21st century? 4.2. Synergistic Innovation Outside In – Contexts, Combinations & Constraints 4.3. Synergistic Innovation Inside Out – Containers/Platforms, Catalysts and Connections Catalysing Upstretch and Harnessing Downshifts 4.4. Accelerating Synergistic Innovation in Transitions 4.5. Building a Portfolio of Thriveable Innovations 4.6. In Summary APPENDICES APPENDIX A What Does a Thriving, Green, Inclusive Economy Look Like? The Six Desiderata of ThriveAbility Table A - The Six Desiderata of ThriveAbility APPENDIX B THE SCIENCE UNDERPINNING SYNERGY, ECONOMICS, LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT Mindsets and Perspectives Matter Conscious, Beneficial Evolution is Critical to Survive and Thrive Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership Softback & Kindle Full Colour

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future A Leader’s Guide to Thriveability by Dr Robin Wood 4. THE DRIVERS OF TRUE FUTURE VALUE The Three Foci of Integrated Thinking – Inner, Other, Outer Integrated Thinking and Leadership – Starting with Minds and Mindsets The Significance of the ThriveAbility Six Capitals Equation DIAGRAM 16 – The ThriveAbility Six Capitals Equation How Leadership & Culture Multiply True Value through Innovation & Transformation The Role of Different Kinds of Minds in Leadership and Innovation The Dominant Action Logics of Corporate Leadership DIAGRAM 17 Stages of Development – The Dominant Action Logics of Corporate Leadership Table C – The Stages of Development – The Dominant Action Logics of Corporate Leadership ThriveAble Innovation through Stratification and Alignment The Role of ThriveAble Innovation Making ThriveAble Innovation and Transformation Happen DIAGRAM 18 - ThriveAble Innovation Pathways, the Core of the Strategic Alignment Outlook Translating Fresh Strategic Perspectives into ThriveAble Outcomes DIAGRAM 19 – Incremental vs Transformative Managerial Preferences: Risks and Resilience vs Innovations and Opportunities Table A [extended] – Value systems: From Suffering to Thriving 5. LEADING FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THRIVEABILITY What Does Being a “ThriveAbility Leader” Look Like? Activists/Advisors Entrepreneurs Intrapreneurs Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility Softback B&W http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle Softback & Kindle Full Colour

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CHAPTER FOUR – WHERE and HOW to BEGIN This short book is designed to help you put into practice the approaches and tools that help make good happen within the six pathways to a thriving future for us all. Whatever you do in your life and work, and wherever you live and however you make a difference, what is in your hands is a universal toolkit that you can use on your journey into a flourishing future. Use this as an antidote to all the bad news you hear every day, and remember that every single one of us on this planet can make a difference doing whatever we do, wherever we are, right now. Each one of us is a leader and creator in one way or another. You will have particular strengths, assets and experience that others can look up to and learn from. Equally, there are those in your family, community, city, organization and networks whom you can learn from and be inspired by too. So the most logical place to begin this journey is inside yourself, and together with the others that can be mutually supportive on that journey.

Leadership and Creatorship “Leadership” is one of the most misunderstood words in the English languagethere are currently at least 1 500 different definitions of leadership and at least 46 theories of leadership. Luckily this complexity need not concern you, as we are going to work with whatever leadership means to you, and go from there to make good happen. Some leadership models emphasise top down leadership, where a powerful leader or founder delegates power to chosen teams and appointees to carry out their agenda and goals. This kind of leadership model works well in hierarchical networks and organisations where there are major differences in the power of the leadership group and the “followers”/”employees”. In this vein, one can either focus inwardly on improving one’s self as a leader, or focus more outwardly on how to work more effectively with teams so that one’s individual vision or goal is achieved. Bottom up leadership models emphasise the leaders role in facilitating the emergence of the organization’s purpose through collective participation. There will be a stronger focus on personal development as well as organisational development, and empowering others to be leaders too. This model works well when the power difference between all the stakeholders are minimal or attenuated, especially in highly diverse stakeholder groups, though it can become bogged down in endless rounds of consensus seeking.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Integrative leaders will deploy diverse leadership styles to ensure they serve the context of the organization or group. Developing others to be leaders in ways that integrate all of the leadership approaches in appropriate contexts is the key to this approach, and the one that we will explore in more detail here. “Creatorship” is a term I coined to distinguish what leaders are and how they behave, and the beneficial outcomes they create through their lives and work. When we look at making good happen in practice, what we are more interested in is what difference you have made in the world because of your life and work, rather than whether you are a “great leader”. Your legacy says much more about the fruits of your life than what kind of leader you aspired to be. You can be a leader and a destroyer, but you cannot be a creator without being a leader in some way.

Knowing Where You and Others are At - Stage Development We have learned a great deal about human development in the past century in terms of the different stages of development people go through, and the different mindsets and perspectives they use to look at the world. And we have understood that there is a streaming effect of the stages, so that we can know where people are at and create a set of irresistible propositions and conditions around that team or within that organisation that help shift the culture and those people to the next level and harness that energy to get breakthroughs to happen. We call that stratification and streaming. For all those reasons, stage development models enable us to measure a whole lot of things that were never measured before and to connect them to the challenge of creating a thriving global civilisation on a thriving planet and enable the organisations and the decision makers everywhere understand what it will take to make thriveable decisions that scale and make a big difference. Getting to know one’s own psychology, putting one’s self in another’s shoes, and noticing how both change depending on social and environmental factors, is a lifelong practice. Over time, practice, attention, and intention lead people to greater understanding and facility, both in socio-emotional and cognitive development. This deeper understanding of self and other and the constructed nature of reality can inform and influence leadership within organizations, perhaps even the latter's stage development.xxxi Organisational psychology has been deployed for over a century to improve productivity, yielding practices such as job-enrichment, T-groups, 360 degree feedback, employee surveys and many more. Paired with top-down leadership models, the emphasis has been on getting more output for less input, which equals © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future greater profits. When some of those profits are shared with the workforce and the pay gap between the top and bottom level employees is less than 100 to 1, and the system operates within ecological limits, this kind of system is sustainable. Sadly, the organizational development and “transformation” efforts we have seen in the past few decades have largely been used to jack up the pay gap to insane levels in some countries, and the system has been trampling all over the environment for half a century, while toxic levels of debt-fuelled consumerism are rising. The reaction to these developments has naturally been a surge of interest in bottom-up leadership models and practices, though the irony is that this has not changed ownership structures or the pay gap at all in some countries. You may be heard sitting in your circle, with a “voice”, following some simple rules on how to do the work better and not let your being human get in the way of that iconic growth goal, but you remain a wage slave nonetheless. In other words, leadership and organisational development, despite their origins in humanistic psychology half a century ago, became just another tool to support business-as-usual, to attract and retain the “talent” needed to deliver the neverending growth demanded of ever greedier management teams and shareholders. It is ironic that while stage development research began at the same time Frederick Taylor was helping Henry Ford make his production lines ever more efficient (and less human) a century ago, it largely failed to “catch-on” until the 1960’s, when Maslow’s hierarchy started to appear in management textbooks. The goal of people management had simply been to increase the ratio of output to input from the black box known as the worker. In the past few decades there has been a resurgence of interest in stage development models, given their ability to help individuals and organisations transition more elegantly through the often chaotic and rather mercenary world that large organisations have been complicit in creating. With people and planet having been relegated to the lowest priority after profit through forty years of neoliberalism, this resurgence of interest in people and the environment since the first Rio conference in 1992 has been slow to take root in the mainstream. There are over one hundred stage development models from many different perspectives, yet there is a general consensus that there are roughly eight developmental stages available to the modern human being, with at least four higher stages of development emerging, adding up to a total of twelve developmental stages.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Of the approaches I have been using in the past two decades, I am most familiar with the Gravesian and Integral models as developed by a variety of practitioners in the west. There also some useful indicators to diagnose change readiness and upshifts/downshifts in the Gravesian and Spiral Dynamics toolkit, as well as the preference for first order and second order change, linked into analog and digital preferences in cognitive processing. I am also acquainted with the Loevinger, Cook-Greuter and Kegan models, which augment and refine some of the aspects of the Spiral Dynamics and Integral approaches. A promising new model is the STAGES work of Terri O’Fallon and her colleagues, which seeks to integrate all of these models into an elegant twelvestage model based on the research of Loevinger, Cook-Greuter and Kegan- though further validation of the model is required as the number of initial samples is still small. So, how can all this help you and I make good happen? As we have shown in Pathways One (Values and Visions- Social Capital) and Two (Human Development- Human Capital) above, the highest leverage point from which one can make good happen starts with our own values, visions and priorities. As leaders and co-creators we are in a position to develop, shape and transform the cultures of our communities, organisations, cities and nations. Why Stage Development and Change Readiness Models and Maps are Valuable When you begin a journey in the physical world, you usually know your starting point. In fact, with the sophisticated GPS technology and navigation systems available today, most traveller have precise GPS coordinates of their starting position, as well as the GPS coordinates of their destination. When one begins a journey of leadership or creatorship, one is usually left to one’s own devices to figure out “where you are at”, as well as where you would like to end up as a destination. You may have some helpful or not so helpful feedback from others in the process, but they may not fully appreciate your deeper motivations and aspirations. Stage development maps and models provide a human equivalent of the GPS mapping system- let’s call it the “HPS”, or human positioning system. In order to be an effective leader and creator of yourself and others, knowing where you are on the human developmental journey offers valuable insights into your own strengths and challenges, aptitudes and preferences. This kind of self-knowledge is vital in helping you frame your journey and aspirations, as well as dealing with the frustrations along the way.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Stage developmental models and maps are also vital tools in working with other to make good happen. Whether it is being realistic about how far others can or want to look into the future (SEE); how much they care or don’t give a damn about social and environmental consequences (FEEL); how to align diverse stakeholders to make good happen (TOUCH); choosing the right metrics to measure your progress on the journey (MEASURE); generating the creativity that stimulates reinvention (REINVENT); or figuring out the best way to scale up an initiative (SCALE)- knowing where you are on the journey and where others are is critical. Many of us called to be change agents or visionaries find the hardest part of our work to be dealing with the frustrations of motivating others who don’t see that there is a problem to be solved, or who actively resist any attempts to change the existing order of things. Most of this failure to see and the desire to resist is not obvious, and is buried deep inside the value systems and experiences of our family, friends, stakeholders and colleagues. So understanding where they are at, why they are motivated in the way they are, and how they might respond to different ways of inspiring and enrolling them in an effort to make good happen, is crucial. Here are some of the main benefits users of stage development maps and models have experienced: • • • • • • • • •

Meet others where they are at- helps to understand and influence/cocreate with diverse mindsets; Inspire others in their transitions and creations in appropriate ways; Identify transition potentials in individuals, teams, and organisations; Recognise how the small and large scale patterns are influencing each other in human interactions; Spot windows of opportunity for change and transformation in self and others; Support and develop others as leaders and creators; Diagnose and develop alignment and resolve misalignments in teams and organisations; Match the right people with the right roles, teams and tasks Recruit the right team for the journey you are planning to make good happen.

To conclude, knowing where and others are at when you being your journey to good, offers valuable insights into the nature of the transition you are about to take, and what specifically will motivate others to want to support and join you on the journey.

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Make a Map of Your Journey Your journey to make good happen can be split into three distinct parts: •

WHERE – locating yourself on the Journey to Good map- use diagram 3 above to locate where you and the others involved in your journey are now, and where you believe you should aim for as your destination. Set your level of ambition, refresh your knowledge of the six capabilities needed to make good happen, and press go!;

•

WHAT – locate yourself on the Six Pathways map- use diagram 1 above to locate what you and the others involved in your journey are now focused on at a practical level- are you working on a circular manufacturing project (Pathway Six), or redesigning an important aspect of the financial system (Pathway Three) to make good happen? Although you may be an expert in your own industry and organization, your chances of finding synergistic innovation opportunities and partners increase dramatically if you are able to scan other pathways and organisations intelligently, to appreciate how they might complement your efforts;

•

HOW – mastering the six capabilities needed to make good happen effectively. Assess your level of competence and that of your team and organization/network on each of the six capabilities. What are your strengths and challenges on this journey? How can you improve your skills and competencies in each area? Then keep track of your progress on a regular basis, and invest in development in the areas where you are weakest.

Here is a template you might find useful in your map-making exercise:

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 8 – Mapping Your Journey to Make Good Happen – The Good Cube

You can use the template in diagram 8 above to map you existing initiatives by placing them at the appropriate spot inside the cube. For example: •

Blue Initiative A (a culture change program), is focused on Values and Priorities in Pathway One. The current status of Initiative A is Less Bad, and still in the early stages of being rolled out using the SEE (Visioning) and FEEL (Mobilisation) capabilities;

•

Red Initiative B, (a forestry regeneration program), is focused on Pathway Four (Flourishing Biosphere) and is moving from Less Bad to Better, currently at the stage of TOUCH (Multi-Stakeholder Coalition Building);

•

Green Initiative C, (a circular manufacturing project), is focused on Pathway Six. The current status of Initiative A is Good, and the

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future MEASURE (Multi-capital context based metrics) capabilities are now well developed; •

Orange Initiative D, (a green village development project), is focused on Resilient Habitat creation in Pathway Five. On paper it looks Very Good, but the big question is how to SCALE this approach to similar developments in other regions.

If you are serious about applying context-based, multi-capital, synergistic metrics to your initiatives and projects, you can use the size of the bubble to indicate the True Future Value added by your initiative. This is done using the Thriveability Equation, which tracks the trade-offs and synergies between the eight capitals. You will then have an objective measurement of the genuine “goodness” you are bringing into the world. (See both “A Leader’s Guide to Thriveabilityxxxii ” and “Synergise! 21st Century Leadershipxxxiii ” for more information about True Future Value calculations). You will also notice that as we move from the lower left hand side to the top right hand side of the “Good Cube”, total goodness increases. There is an action logic to the six pathways and the six capabilities for good that plays out in this movement toward the top right hand side. The Six Pathways move from our values/visions/intentions (P1) in our interiors through how we develop ourselves (P2) and our economies (P3) to our biosphere (P4) through our built environment (P5) to our manufactured goods and systems (P6). The Six Capabilities move through a similar pattern from our ability to SEE (beyond horizons 1 and 2), to be able to FEEL (embodying our impulses toward goodness), to TOUCH (resonating and connecting with others and inspiring them to join us on the journey), to MEASURE (articulating more precisely how much goodness we are bringing into the world), to REINVENT (designing and delivering the initiatives and breakthroughs that bring this goodness alive) and SCALE (learning form what worked well and translating that into other contexts to produce more good outcomes). Integral Materiality – Mapping Economic Activities and Industries with the Good Cube The Good Cube is designed to be used by businesses as well as communities, cities and regions- even on a national scale. The Sustainable Industry Classification system (“SICS”) developed by the Sustainable Accounting Standards Board (“SASB”) lies at the heart of the Six Pathways, together with the logic of the integral quadrants system. Diagram 9 illustrates how the SICS enables you to position your business directly in one or more of the pathways.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The relevance of sectoral and industry analysis for synergistic-innovation and thriveable outcomes is that all innovation requires some core competencies and capabilities to add true future value. While NGO’s and public sector organisations are good at problem spotting and the provision of Band-Aid level solutions to these problems, the deeper work of synergistic-innovation is to search for and implement multi-capital based solutions that are both sustainable and thriveable. This requires fresh business models that are usually more bottom-up and inclusive, because they distribute power and possibility to the masses. In Diagram 9 below we see how the “ladder of competencies” emerges across the ten sectors of the economy in a sequential fashion. The foundation layer is provided by the energy and mineral sectors, with non-renewable resources (including fossil fuels) being replaced by renewable resources by 2050. Mining and minerals is also the major source of raw materials for infrastructure capital from highways to buildings to ports. Natural capital is the ultimate resource for these sectors. At the next level, the Consumption I sector of agriculture, forestry and fisheries provides us with all our food, beverages and raw materials for manufactured goods, while the Resource Transformation sector turns the materials from the primary sectors into chemicals and heavy goods such as industrial and electrical machinery and aerospace/defence equipment. Natural and infrastructure capital is the ultimate resource for these sectors wile their primary outputs are manufactured capital. From all of this the final material layer of the economy is produced, through the Transportation, Technology & Communications and Consumption 2 sector of materials for manufactured capital. The final two layers of our economy that rely on the previous four layers are the Healthcare and Service Sectors, and the Governance and Financial Sectors. These rely predominantly on human and intellectual capital to deliver their services. The amount of “value-added” rises as we move up the chain from the primary through the secondary and to the tertiary sectors. The amount of leverage we have to change and transform the economy and society for True Future Value is highest in the Governance and Financial sectors- and similarly for the Healthcare and Service sectors, including Education. While exponential technologies are capable of transforming the primary and secondary sectors as well, they tend to do this through integrated offerings that include an informational/communications component that emerges in the tertiary sectors.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future Diagram 9 – Mapping the Six Pathways to SICS Sectors: Value Added vs Policy Leverage

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future The Six Pathways are indicated by the numerals on the left hand side of the diagram. SASB offers comprehensive guidelines on how to assess materiality for each sector and industry typexxxiv . Horizon 1 and 2 synergies will arise in adjacent possible spaces within sectors, while Horizon 2 and 3 substitutes and synergies occur between sectors – for example, the non-renewable resources sector will generally find its longer-term future in the Renewable Resources and Alternative Energy Sector. For further information on the detailed industry sectors involved in this mapping process, see Appendix A.

On Being a Leader and Creator I call this my “nutcracker” book, because it not only sums up the seven books I’ve already written, but it also helps crack some of the hardest challenges, or “nuts” (or “wicked problems”, as the cognoscenti like to call them), that we face in the this century as a species, in a small package. Making Good Happen is ultimately not just a technical problem to be solved, but an intensely personal journey that will help you become a better person. The desire to create a better world for our children and their children and everyone else’s children is strong in many hundreds of millions of people around the world. This good energy is helping each of us connect up with others who are making a difference and making a living by making a difference. It also helps us clarify our priorities: what kind of a legacy I am leaving in this world? What will they write on my tombstone as my epitaph? Seeing deeper into ourselves also helps us see more profoundly into the future; feeling more intensely and yet calmly about the state of ourselves also helps us feel more passionately about our world and improving its state; touching our inner selves and getting in touch with our inner selves also connects us with others who resonate at the frequencies we embody and vibrate with; setting measurements that are true, future oriented and value creating for ourselves crystallises what and how we measure the fruits of our labours in the wider world; reinventing ourselves from time to time helps us become pregnant with the fresh new shoots of reinvention the world sorely needs; and scaling up our own power, compassion and gracefulness brings more of that into our world as we scale up the good we and others can make happen. Living a simpler life the other side of complexity is a worthy stretch goal. Appreciating the things you begin to notice when you slow down, living in the moment while also living life intensely and to its fullest, may sound paradoxical, © Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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Making Good Happen â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Pathways to a Thriving Future but it works. Making space and time for life to grow and flourish could be the most sacred thing you ever do. Rugged collaborationists weaving fabulous, mutually interpenetrating webs together, are slowly gaining ground on the rugged individualists who have been stealing the show for half a century. Mindful collaboration and social emergence go hand in hand. Collaborating with others begins with being sensitive to the current situation and the environment in which we intend to operate. That sensitivity is not just to the environment outside, but to that within ourselves as well. If we are not familiar with the terrain in either place, however, moving beyond our own borders becomes even more challengingxxxv . Finding common ground requires the willingness to open up, make oneself vulnerable, and be willing to have a real conversation that is unpredictable. Sometimes we have conversations that turn out to just be interesting, and other times we find surprising emergence and connection popping up when we least expect them. Being open to and engaging with this emergence can not only change us, but also change our world.

ÂŠ Dr Robin Lincoln Wood 2017

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CHAPTER FOUR – EXERCISES 1.

STAGE DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE READINESS MODELS AND MAPS – Familiarise yourself with some of the main maps and models that describe how human beings develop as individuals and evolve as societies. (See Further Reading for links to chapter two of Synergise!, which explores this topic in detail). Describe five benefits of applying such maps to yourself, your community, organization and society.

How do the dynamics of human socio-cultural evolution shape the process of innovation, both incremental and synergistic?

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 2.

MAP YOURSELF ONTO THE GOOD CUBE – Use diagram 8 above to map your own lifestyle, and one or two projects you are engaged in currently. Where did you begin your journey, where are you now, and where would you like to be? Use Diagram 9 - Mapping the Six Pathways to SICS Sectors and Appendix A to locate your specific industry sector/s to help you map what you are doing to a specific pathway.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 3.

DESCRIBE YOUR LEADERSHIP STYLE – Do you tend to be a topdown, bottom-up or integrative leader? What would cause you to favour one style over another? Does your leadership style and practice tend to have a developmental centre of gravity?

KEY LEARNINGS FROM THIS CHAPTER – What are the top three things you’ve learned?

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future 5.

KEY LEARNINGS FROM THIS BOOK – What are the top three things you’ve learned?

What will you do differently now that you have gained these new insights?

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CHAPTER FOUR – FURTHER READING Synergise! 21st Century Leadership by Dr Robin Wood STAGE DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE READINESS MODELS AND MAPS HOW THE DYNAMICS OF HUMAN SOCIO-CULTURAL EVOLUTION SHAPE THE PROCESS OF INNOVATION, BOTH INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC 2. WHY WE CAN WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM HOW WE GOT HERE 2.1. The Rise and Fall of Civilisations, Institutions and Organisations 4.2. Synergistic-Innovation Transforms What it Means to be Human An Overview of the Long Cycles of Innovation 2.3. Era 1 – Hunger Gatherer Tribes: 200 000 BCE To 10 000 BCE Born to be Wild - Hunter-Gathering, Nomadic Bands /Tribes, Animism and Egalitarian Tribalism The Transition from Era 1 to Era 2 2.2.

Era 2 – Civilizations, Cities, Empires and Bureaucracies:

10 000 BCE to 1 500 CE Down on the Farm - Agriculture, Pre-Modern Cities, Regional Empires, Religions and Patriarchal Hierarchies 2.5. Era 3 – The First Renaissance & Modernism: 1 500 CE to 2 000 CE Nation States, Corporations, Industrial Revolutions and Globalisation With a Green Backlash Working in the Product/Service Factory - Industry, Nation States & Modern Cities, Global Empires, Religions/Scientism & State/Corporate Hierarchies 2.6. Era 4 – The Anthropocene & Beyond: 2 000 CE to 2 100CE? The Era 4 Operating System: Activated Clusters of Thriveable Entities?

Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership Softback & Kindle Full Colour

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future A Leader’s Guide to Thriveability by Dr Robin Wood THE BIG PICTURE OF CORPORATE AND INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION 6. WHY THERE IS HOPE – TOWARD A PLANETARY DELTA Of Carrots and Sticks – What Motivates Us DIAGRAM 20 – Carrots and Sticks Viewed from Different Developmental Perspectives: Stratified Leadership Tips on Hot and Cold Buttons from each Perspective How Extrinsic and Intrinsic Incentives Influence ThriveAbility Motivation to Thrive and Incentives to do so Sustainably The Outside – In Model – The “Regulation for Good” Approach DIAGRAM 21 – The ThriveAbility Index and the “Regulation for Good” Approach The Inside – Out Model – The “Corporate Transformation Approach” DIAGRAM 22 – The ThriveAbility Program and the “Corporate Transformation” Approach And So the Story Begins…How Do Corporations and Industries Transform? The ThriveAbility Operating System – From Stranded Assets/Banks/Organizations to Integrated Capitals/investments/Business Ecosystems DIAGRAM 23 – The ThriveAbility Operating System Perspectives and Cultures – the Endogenous (Coming from within) Variables PULL The Competitive and Collaborative Dynamics of Industries are Shifting Too Capital Markets for a Green and Inclusive Economy DIAGRAM 24 – Capital Market for a Regenerative Inclusive Economy How Long Will it Take for Global Regulatory Convergence toward a ThriveAble World? Regulatory and Standard Setting Bodies The Great Virtuous Cycle In Summary Available at amazonhttp://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility Softback B&W http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle Softback & Kindle Full Colour

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Appendix A - The Sustainable Industry Classification System The Sustainable Industry Classification System (“SICS”), developed by SASB, comprises the following ten sectors, which map neatly onto the Six Pathways and provide us with a deeper insight into what Synergistic-innovation means within each sector - see chapter two above for the synergistic innovations that can make good happen in each of the six pathways relevant to the sectors listed below. •

Non-Renewable Resources Sector – this sector includes Oil & Gas, Coal, Metals & Mining, Iron & Steel Producers and Construction Materials. This sector accounts for a large proportion of current greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, as well as impacts on water resources and local communities.

•

Renewable Resources & Alternative Energy Sector - this sector includes Biofuels, Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Geothermal Energy, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy Project Developers, Independent Power Producers and Traders, and The Forestry & Paper Industries. It is vital that growth in this sector is exponential, to ensure that the reductions needed in the use of nonrenewable resources to achieve a 2 degree warming scenario or less is possible.

•

Resource Transformation Sector – this sector is what we used to call “Heavy Industry”, and includes Chemicals, Aerospace and Defense, Electrical/ Electronic Equipment, Industrial Machinery & Goods and Containers and Packaging.

•

Infrastructure Sector - this sector includes Integrated Power Utilities, Electric, Gas, and Water Utilities, Waste Management, Infrastructure Construction, Architecture, Engineering & Construction, Home Builders, Real Estate Owners & Developers and Real-Estate Investment Trusts.

•

Transportation Sector - this sector includes Automobiles, Auto Parts, Car Rental & Leasing, Airlines, Logistics, Marine, Rail and Road Transportation.

•

Technology & Communication Sector - this sector includes Electronic Manufacturing Services & Original Design, Software & IT Services, Hardware, Semiconductors, Telecommunications and Internet Media And Services.

•

Consumption 1 Sector - this sector includes Agricultural Products, Alcoholic Beverages, Meat, Poultry & Dairy, Tobacco, Processed Foods, Household & Personal Products and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future •

Consumption 2 Sector - this sector includes Food Retailers & Distributors, Apparel, Accessories & Footwear, Drug Retailers & Convenience Stores, Appliance Manufacturing, Multiline & Specialty Retailers & Distributors, Building Products & Furnishings, E-Commerce, Toys & Sporting Goods.

•

Health Care Sector - this sector includes Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Medical Equipment & Supplies, Health Care Delivery, Health Care Distributors and Managed Care.

•

Services Sector - this sector includes Education, Professional Services, Hotels & Lodging, Casinos & Gaming, Restaurants, Leisure Facilities, Cruise Lines, Advertising & Marketing, Media Production & Distribution, Cable & Satellite.

•

Financials Sector - this sector includes Commercial Banks, Mortgage Finance, Investment Banking & Brokerage, Security & Commodity Exchanges, Asset Management & Custody Activities, Insurance and Consumer Finance.

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ENDNOTES i

www.solarkiosk.eu https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg6 http://www.coca-

http://gizmodo.com/this-is-how-we-can-prevent-a-global-fisheries-collapse-1767497342

iii

https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/the-growth-ofaqua-culture-fishy-business.html

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?page=view&nr=164&type=230&menu=2059#sth ash.E9IWObyD.dpuf

2008 paper by Weber and Matthews, Food-Miles and the Relative Climate Impacts of Food Choices in the United States.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs7BG4lH3m4

vii

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature16512.epdf?referrer_access_token=ZnC9txuf7Dm y4cWrHjY61NRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Pq0ejGW1rwtXbv9hi9M4AB3dSSM1lzuWn3LKgvdtnfJ B49cNlkQPnZghWJ_GjzFWDk501wAASQFq7a70F77j0AZFFVR4t2_72hBMpQQiTehWeVPFyes3dZcX6Tra6qWZW2cUGrJFn3SxcIclW t7DlnAG3FxIwVUYcO-0Kz_5JJA%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com

viii

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5588e.pdf

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/344/6186/895

https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Scenarios2016_Executive-Summary-1.pdf

The Tropic of Capricorn is the circle marking the latitude 23.5 degrees south where the sun is directly overhead at noon on December 21, the beginning of winter in the northern hemisphere. The Tropic of Capricorn is the circle marking the latitude 23.5 degrees south where the sun is directly overhead at noon on December 21, the beginning of winter in the northern hemisphere.

xii

Thanks to my ThriveAbility colleague Ralph Thurm and Anneke Sipkins, who was then head of Sustainability at Deloitte and is now head of Stichting Doen in Amsterdam.

xiii

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/cradle-to-cradle-desso-carpet-tilesinnovation

xiv

https://www.terrapinbrightgreen.com/tapping-into-nature/#technologies

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/index_en.htm

xvi

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/technology/publications/assets/pwc-consumerintelligence-series-the-sharing-economy.pdf

xvii

xviii

See statistics quoted in Chapter 1.

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Making Good Happen – Pathways to a Thriving Future xix

Less than a few dozen companies in total have publicly announced a commitment to Net Positive. xx

See http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/net-positiveapproach-key-to-future-business-success-new-report-by-forum-for-the-future-theclimate-group-and-wwf-uk/ for more details. xxi

The benefits of a Net Positive approach are already being felt by businesses, including BT, Capgemini, Coca-Cola Enterprises, The Crown Estate, IKEA Group, Kingfisher and SKF. Leaders of these businesses came together with the report authors to share their experiences and help define the Principles of a Net Positive approach. They concluded that failure to deal adequately with environmental and social issues will result in "exposure to supply chain risks and missed opportunities". xxii

For example, Sanergy builds healthy, prosperous communities by making hygienic sanitation affordable and accessible throughout Africa's informal settlements. The Sanergy Model takes a systems-based approach to solve the sanitation crisis sustainably. (Further information www. saner.gy) xxiii

Many scientists are now using the term and the Geological Society of America titled its 2011 annual meeting: Archean to Anthropocene: The past is the key to the future. The Anthropocene has no precise start date, but based on atmospheric evidence may be considered to start with the Industrial Revolution (late 18th century). Other scientists link it to earlier events, such as the rise of agriculture. Evidence of relative human impact such as the growing human influence on land use, ecosystems, biodiversity and species extinction is controversial, some scientists believe the human impact has significantly changed (or halted) the growth of biodiversity xxiv

Based on the work of the neurologist Paul MacLean.

xxv

http://www.autonews.com/article/20140804/OEM10/308049988/carmakers-bet-onbig-global-platforms-to-cut-costs xxvi

https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/

xxvii

http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle

xxviii

http://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership

xxix

http://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership

xxx

http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle

xxxi

Thanks to Eric Reynolds for this succinct paragraph, part of his PhD research proposal I am privileged to be mentoring him on. xxxii

http://bit.ly/LeadersGuidetoThriveAbility-Kindle

xxxiii

http://bit.ly/Synergise-21stCenturyLeadership

xxxiv

https://www.sasb.org/

xxxv

Thanks to my friend Ron Schulz for the fine words in this paragraph from his psychoactive “Little White Book”, The Complex Buddhist- Doing Good in a Challenging World, Emergent Publications, 2015.

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