Basics For Successful Betting
1 10 Things You Need To Be Succesful Betting On Sports
1. Understand the concept of value Critical. If you don't have this, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a 1.25 favourite is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times we've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it. It doesn't work. Value is a simple concept, but most of the betting public don't understand this. And perhaps thankfully so, because its this naive or 'square' money that can skew the market, leaving great opportunities for the minority of gamblers who do know how to recognise value.
2. Basic Maths
If you've ever said the phrase "I'm not a maths guy but....", then you probably shouldn't be a betting guy either. While plenty of gamblers can make a success of it by betting on instinct and 'feel', to be successful long term you need a viable staking plan and you need to understand what the odds reflect in terms of probability. In short, it's a numbers game, and you need an adequate relationship with division and multiplication as a minimum.
3. Understand how the bookmakers make the odds This depends upon the popularity of the event, but in general, bookmaker odds will be more a reflection of what they expect the general public to play, rather than on the actual probabilities of either outcome. Of course, it's not quite that simple, but in general, bookmakers will set their odds so as to attract betting on either side of the odds, so as to balance their liability and take their commission. This leaves smart gamblers to find great value opportunities where the general public's opinion is just plain wrong. It also means that great value can be found on events where there is expected to be greater interest than normal by the occasional or casual gambler, who let's be honest, knows nothing or very little in terms of profitable betting strategy. Events like the Super Bowl, Cup finals and major horse racing events are prime candidates for this sort of opportunity.
4. Ability to fall in love with the ugly duck The longer I have been betting, the more I have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. In fact, I feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive I know, but the less the general public likes a team, the more I like the look of them in terms of value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise.
5. Don't dwell on the past or celebrate for too long
Don't let a recent losing run throw you off your game. Put it out of your mind and stay with your analysis and have faith that the wheel will turn. Similarly, don't let a recent winning streak give you false courage and lead you to over extend yourself. Again, stay with your analysis and stick with your plan.
6. Don't hope for The Big Score Multi-bets. Parlays. Teasers. Whatever you like to call them, know when to bet them. And when not to. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet. Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs, and you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. Now lets look at a real world example where you're being offered lets say 1.90 for 'even money' with the bookmaker taking out 5%: the odds for that same 4 leg multi would be just 13.00. That's taking out close to 19% of the full price of that bet. But if you have located true value, then multi's can be tremendous value as you multiply the value into each leg. The issue is of course, locating true value. Everyone who adds a leg to a multi does so because they believe they are finding value. Nobody bets odds that don't represent value to them. But key to creating value multi's is in finding true value or else you're only diminishing your chances of success with each under valued leg you add.
7. A long term sensibility It would be great to get rich quick, but its not going to happen. Think long term. Build your betting bankroll, steadily increase the amount you bet on each game, and soon enough you'll find you're making some decent pocket money on the side, and maybe, just maybe, if you stick with it long enough, you can make a living wage out of it.
8. A reasonable betting bankroll
If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you're going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, I would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum. OK so maybe you can only afford a bankroll of euro1000, which means your average unit will be 20. Sounds small time I know and you want to be a high roller. Well a euro1000 bankroll can quickly turn into a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and an intelligent staking plan. Lets say you bet 200 bets a year. And for argument sake lets say they are all of 1.90 odds, and lets say you hit at a 54% strike rate. Well with a fractional Kelly staking plan, at the end of those 200 bets, depending on your winning consistency which should even out over a long term, your bankroll will be in the ballpark of euro1100.00. Yeah I hear what you're saying - that's only 100.00 profit over the year. Well, that's just betting 200 bets a year, with a 2.6% average return per bet. Now imagine you bet 400 bets in a year and able to get still a modest 5% average return. That bankroll of euro1000 at the end of the 400 bets would be in the ballpark of euro1400 and at the end of 5 years that bankroll will be in the range of euro5000, and after 10 years, around euro30,000 with an average unit of 600. Not bad is it. Of course the hard part is to get that consistent 5% return, and perhaps the harder part is grinding it out until you build that bank up over a number of years. But the point here is to show how starting out modest with a viable bankroll and staking plan, can turn into genuine profits in the long term.
9. Not having the need to 'make it interesting' I've heard it plenty of times. "Oh sometimes I bet just to make it interesting." OK, well that's fine. But don't expect to be a long term winner. If you want to make it interesting, join a fantasy league or a tipping competition where you're not putting down real money.
10. Ability to believe in any and all conceivable Gods or transcendental possibilities Hey, it cant hurt.
2 How To Deal With Losing Like death and taxes, losing runs when betting are part and parcel of life. They can cause endless frustration and defy logic at times. Here we examine ways of coping and limiting the damage from these times when whatever can go wrong does.
1. Take a Break Pro-punter John Basquill, who has enjoyed a supremely successful decade of betting for a living, correctly identified that the fifteen minutes after a poorly judged bet or moment of misfortune is the most dangerous time for all punters. This is the time when we are all at risk of getting "hotted up" and all reasoning and rationale goes flying out the window as we seek to recoup the losses. This is obviously a completely illogical reaction to bad luck, but a completely human one that we all experience when the unexpected occurs. The last flight faller or last second goal can tip anyone over the edge, no matter how disciplined they believe they are with their betting.
The best policy seems to be avoid time-frames with betting. Don't have daily targets, or amounts one is trying to win in any given time period. Instead analyse the bottom line profit and loss during a period when actual trading or betting is not taking place, calmly and dispassionately, away from the action at the end of each month. Only this way can one see where bad calls are being made and change course accordingly, safely away from the "red mist" that can descend when matters go wrong.
2. Change Strategy Patrick Veitch, one of the most feared full time gamblers in the UK since the 1990's is constantly evolving strategies in the battle to stay ahead of the game. Punters have never had a wider range of betting opportunities or choice, although it has to be said that "getting on" has never been harder for those with any kind of intelligence about value. With this in mind Veitch now zones in on the shortest price horses each day and, after detailed research in depth into the races they are competing in, decides on a price that he is happy to back or lay. These decisions now form the basis of a largely exchange based operation, something totally different to the way he operated only five or six years ago. The dangers of standing still when it starts to go wrong can be illustrated by many failed punters, often some who have for years earned incredibly well from the game in the past. Johnny "Lights" Herndall was a massive player on the rails at racecourses in the South of England during the 80s and 90s before retiring. He was extremely well connected, an excellent judge of price and when to play and in what races, either as a layer or punter. However, with the arrival of the betting exchanges, the "secrets" that only he and a few others knew were "shopped" and his edge rapidly disappeared. Before Betfair he might be given the "stable cash" to bet one of a leading yards newcomers in a modest maiden race, and would be aware that this horse was very strongly fancied (while the bookmakers were in the dark and pricing up largely off an untested industry tissue). With
the dominance of the exchanges the odds of 4.00 or bigger that he might be able to bet at, now became 2.50 or less and the profit margin effectively evaporated overnight.
3. Reduce Stakes and Limit maximum losses The best advice when the wheels come off and a succession of losers come along is to reduce stakes until feeling that your confidence has returned. If the punter's usual stake is 100, try reducing that to 25. What actually often happens to many of us is we increase our betting levels when we are out of form, trying to chase after previous losses, and it is during this time that all the previous hard work and profits can be thrown away. As on-course pro-punter Steve Noyce explained, "It is far better to plod along, in first gear and try to become a marathon runner rather than a sprinter who burns himself out". Getting the staking right is the hardest part of betting and it is far better to play bigger when things are going well, than to try and smash out of trouble when they aren't.
4. Play more carefully and try and restore confidence Less bets, more carefully thought through and placed only when an edge can be obtained. Cut out all the "interest" bets, i.e when a live match is on, and focus solely on an area where you have the most knowledge. Obvious advice, but it is so often ignored, especially when matters go wrong. An excellent punter makes a decent living solely from trading football in running, where he has an array of complex algorithms that he follows to work out any slight edge or discrepancy in the prices offered between asian and exchange based markets. He can grind out superb yearly profits doing this and has no other source of income, so is entirely reliant on making it pay betting. However, if he makes an error or a late goal goes against him, he can very quickly go on "tilt" and turn to any sport to try and recoup what he has just lost in the last ninety minutes. This can involve laying a horse or greyhound in a far larger stake than he would normally play at in-running.
Into his forties now, he recognises completely the madness of this approach, but it still makes a very big dent in his yearly income and cannot overcome it. Admitting frailties and vulnerabilities is a great first step for any punter, although doing something to combat it can be another matter!
5. Give up the game completely The dreaded advice that no serious punter can counter. Often heard muttered by friends or family when a losing run is explained, it is not something that those of us who love the game can imagine. Throwing in the towel, never betting again is a temptation when fate conspires against you, but imagine a life wondering around garden centres or National Trust properties while the racing or soccer is on, and you soon realise that one must refine rather than retire. The search for better, more profitable betting is a never ending one, and "adapt or die" is a very good modus operandi in the rapidly changing world of punting.
3 Assessing Football Form Taking elements such as home/away statistics, number of goals, managers and overall performance into consideration before actually betting will give you important knowledge and a comparative edge to other players.
1. Result Based Bets
An often-applied strategy is to place bets based on a team's recent results. But results alone are rarely useful as a single indicator for a team's performance. There is a huge difference between winning three matches in a row against all lower ranking teams compared to top teams. Maybe one team is notoriously bad away but a sure bet home. The style of the recent wins can be important. Teams winning with three goals are looking better than teams just winning 1-0. Things like that play a major role in assessing the value of a bet. Home/away statistics combined with the number of goals in a win are therefore a much better reference than recent results alone.
2. Head to Head Recent head to head results indicate how the teams match in previous encounters. Consider how much has changed in the meantime. New players might have arrived or maybe one of the teams suffers from injured important players. As a rule of thumb matches more than a year back will show very little about the current relation between the teams. How do the managers preferred playing styles match the opponent? A very defensive team playing against an attacking team might yield more goals than two defensive teams only going for a couple of chances throughout the match. Also try to look back on the managers' performances head to head. Not necessarily as managers for their recent teams but overall. A manager might have thought of a winning tactic against the other and have used it in the recent matches.(Greece against Portugal in 2004, anyone?)
3. Geography and European Matches During the season many teams play in European leagues as well as their own national league. If a team have played away during the week and maybe have had to travel more than a few hours they might feel fatigued thus affecting their performance. There is also the possibility that some of the key players need to be rested for upcoming more important matches than the national league. All of this can affect the teams' performances in the upcoming matches.
In periods with international breaks many players will be missed by their clubs making teams weaker in certain positions. This may have a massive impact on odds and make for interesting situations where good value bets can easily be found.
4 How To Bet Over/Unders In this guide we will share with you some key points in the hope that you too can improve your Over/Under betting.
1. Last week doesn't mean much Yes, recent form matters. But it doesn't matter as much as most people think. At least when it comes to outwitting the odds. Time and again, I will see people refer what a particular team has done in the last 3 weeks, 4 weeks or similar. Yes, a club may have scored many goals or points in recent weeks or games. But does this really give you an accurate assessment of a team's true potential to score? No, not really. To obtain a true assessment of a team's potential to score you have to look deeper and you have to take a longer term view. Consider their scoring form over the last 20 matches, or even longer. It depends upon the sport, league and in general, the number and frequency of games played.
Yes, recent form should be taken into account. But a sure way to continually come out on the wrong side of an Over/Under bet, is to become easily seduced by a recent run of high or low scoring games. And more to the point, it's recent form that the naive betting public is often seduced by, which means their are opportunities in the Over/Under markets for those of us who like to consider true potential rather than impulsive knee-jerk reactions to a mere few weeks of form.
2. Distinguish between home and away form It seems obvious enough, but all too often I see people speak about a team's overall form and scoring potential, rather than their specific home and away form. And it matters. Look across Europe at any league, and you'll see that clubs have particular tendencies when it comes to scoring at home as opposed to away. Some clubs for whatever reason, engage in higher scoring matches at home than when travelling, while others are the opposite, competing in tense and cagey affairs at home, while seeing the totals run up in away fixtures. Just look at a couple of simple examples. In the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Blackburn home matches went Under 2.5 goals on 13 of 19 occasions. But away from home, Blackburn matches were Under 2.5 goals in just 6 of 19 matches. On the other hand, Fulham home matches went Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 19 occasions, while their away matches went Under 13 times. So the point should be clear, that when considering the Over or Under in a particular contest, consider where the game is being played and how either club has performed in that situation.
3. Track occurrences not averages
This is once again, something I see all too often, people quoting scoring averages when assessing a particular match. Averages might be ok when analysing a particularly large sample size with scorelines of limited variance. But the problem is that even over a sample size of for example 15 matches, one irregular result can distort the average. Consider the following hypothetical example. Let's say Chelsea have played 15 home matches with 45 total goals scored in those matches. That's an average of 3 goals scored per match. The Over/Under 2.5 goals is paying even money. Looks tempting considering Chelsea's home form in goal totals. Now let's say that two of those 15 matches were particularly high scoring, for example, a 4-2 and a 5-1 result, seeing a total of 12 combined goals scored. These two irregular results have severely distorted the average, which would be 2.53 in the other 13 matches. What may have looked like an excellent opportunity to bet the Over 2.5 goals, suddenly seems less enticing. So while averages can be helpful in large sample sizes, in general, it's best to track occurrences. Look at how many times a team has gone over or under a particular goal total. In our Chelsea example, it could well be that while the average for the 15 home matches may be 3 goals per match, but that the actual number of times Chelsea home games have gone Over 2.5 goals could be less than 50% with a few high scoring matches giving an inaccurate and distorted impression. Perhaps Chelsea home games have only gone over 2.5 goals on 7 occasions. Even if the average is 3 goals per match, would you feel good about betting the Over if the occurrence rate was so low? Probably not.
4. Don't get exotic
Keep your Over/Under bets to the basic 2.5 goals or whatever the 'even money' line is for a particular match, typically between 2 and 3 goals depending upon the teams involved or the league. The fact is, this is where the value is. Sure, a bookmaker might be offering 5.00 for the Over 4.5 goals, but in general, bookmakers who offer these sorts of irregular goal total markets, tend to take a larger than average commission. At the same time, value is wherever you can find it. And if you've crunched the numbers and have identified greater value in a higher or lower than typical goal total line, then by all means, take advantage of it. But in general, we would encourage you to stick to the basics and concentrate on 'even money' Over/Under lines. You'll find your results to be far more consistent. And in terms of analysis, it's far easier to find historical odds data resources for analysis on the web for these markets than it is the more exotic variety.
5. Identify scoring potential By all means, analyse scorelines. But if you really want to improve your Over/Under betting, look at some deeper stats. With any sort of analysis, we're attempting to gauge a team's true potential in a given match or contest. And simple goals and scorelines aren't always the best way to do that. So look deeper. Try to develop an analysis that incorporates statistical categories that can give an overall better indication of a teams base form and their true scoring potential.
Look at shots on goal for and against, shots on target for and against, goal for shot conversion rates. The problem with goals is that they can be a little inconsistent and sometimes show wild fluctuation. More than that, the general public usually only considers scorelines and bookmakers more or less frame their odds on what the expectation is of the average football bettor. Having a deeper understanding of scoring potential can give you a great edge and will see you reap the rewards on the balance sheet.
6. Look at recent meetings Considering recent meetings between the competing teams can be helpful. And can often surprise you. You might see that while two teams have been consistently low scoring and defensive clubs within their league. But when the two teams meet, for whatever reason, they play open and offensive games with high scores a regular outcome. But don't look too far back. It's not really that relevant what two clubs did 10 seasons ago. So only consider meetings over the last 3 or so seasons. And similarly, only pay attention to a sample size of a minimum 2 or preferably 3 matches. Sure, the last meeting between two clubs might have been an unexpected 5 goal result. But it's one match and in itself doesn't mean much. On the other hand, if you see that the clubs have consistently gone over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 meetings in the last 2 seasons, then that is just the thing you want to make a note of in your analysis.
7. Consider the situation Situational analysis is a great part of my overall assessment when betting Over/Unders.
Look at how the competing clubs have performed in similar situations. When a particular club is a heavy underdog away from home, have they typically been involved in higher or lower scoring matches? When playing inferior opponents, do they have the tendency to run up the score or do they just go through the motions and do just enough to get the win? And don't just look at the situational trends of the particular clubs competing. Look deeper and seek out league wide trends. Are matches higher scoring at the beginning of the league season or towards the end? These sorts of things are good to take into account in your overall analysis, and can often give you an edge and an angle that the general betting public just simply isn't aware of.
5 How To Win Betting On Horse Racing The internet revolution has produced a golden age for horse racing punters, with a large number of bookmakers competing for the betting pound.
This has produced fantastic opportunities for those disciplined enough to exploit it, with margins virtually non existent if you shop around to get the best prices. Essentially, if your opinion is any good you really ought to be winning and winning regularly. Based on our experience on both sides of the fence, we have come up with some golden rules for successful wagering on the horses.
1. Specialise There is so much racing, especially in the Summer, that it's virtually impossible to be on top of all of it, and attempting to do so is liable to dilute ones views and lead to errors in judgement. Try and find an area that you can get to grips with the form in. For example, novice hurdles or 2Year Olds on the flat. Bet only in these races and watch every one of these races.
2. Maintain a database Specialising in one area means you can easily use a database to log all your views and notes on every race. Several companies offer ready made versions such as TimeformI and Raceform, which allow you to insert your own views alongside their own expert analysis.
3. Price Up every race you can This is essential to anyone who wishes to try and profit from betting on the horses. There have been thousands of excellent judges of form who fail at gambling simply because they "bet what they fancy and a winner is a winner". The only way to form an accurate view of when it is time to bet is to price up the races to 100 per cent. If for instance you price up a three horse race at Evens, 3 to 1 and 3 to 1, but the actual prices available are 6 to 4, 2 to 1, 5 to 2, then the "value" lies in betting the 6 to 4 chance.
Clearly this is a simplistic example and racing is not black and white but it is still an excellent habit to get into and stops ill discipline and having too many bets.
4. When the weather changes, be patient and wait The Summer months of racing are traditionally the hardest for bookmakers. Put simply, the weather is usually dry and the ground stays the same, on the fast side of good. However when the weather changes so do the results. Be careful analysing form on fast ground when the actual race may be on soft. This is why there are bookmakers!
5. The shape of the race This is the least considered but arguably the most important factor in analysing a race you intend to price up and wager in. Try to understand the run styles of the protagonists and what suits them best. For example if there are two headstrong frontrunners in the race, both are liable to ruin each other up front and tee the race up for a hold up horse. Similarly if something is sure to get a soft unpressed lead it is much more probable it will give its best running. A lot of this is a "feel" thing that will come from experience of watching thousands of races and keeping accurate notes.
6. Follow an in form small yard over a big name stable Generally the horses from the bigger, well established yards tend to be overbet in relation to the form they have actually achieved. Try and steer clear of hype and "info" and focus on what you have seen with your own eyes.
Younger trainers just starting out tend to be more up for the game than those that have already enjoyed success in the past. Over the jumps for instance "new" trainers such as Neil Mulholland and Charlie Longsden have made excellent starts which the betting market has yet to reflect.
7. Never bet odds-on and try to find each-way value As a punter for around 20 years now I personally try and avoid betting odds-on and focus mainly on each-way opportunities. The hit rate needed when betting odds-on regularly is very high and with Betfair dictating prices these days, it is very hard to find any price advantage at this end of the market. Much better to play in 8, 9 or 10 runner races each-way where the terms are very much in the punters favour. This is no better illustrated in the Betfair place-only prices which are often significantly less than what is available using a traditional bookmaker.
8. The effect of the draw This is becoming more and more relevant to finding winners and is a constant source of frustration to punters on the flat. More and more, for whatever reason, certain parts of racecourses have faster strips of turf that see those horses drawn high or low enjoy a huge advantage. It is important to record this bias and remember it for future betting. At Folkestone for example this season, of ten sprints on the straight course, nine have been won by those drawn in the two stalls nearest the stands rail.
9. Latch onto a young claiming pilot over a 'star'
So often horses ridden by star "name" pilots are under-priced simply because punters believe they have been booked because connections expect them to win. Also they have a huge betting shop following who simply bet anything that L Dettori or A P McCoy rides. As is so often the case with successful betting, staying away from the mainstream view is often the best option. Try and spot young riders who are strong and decent judges of pace. With their claim (a reduction in weight the horse has to carry because they have yet to ride a certain number of winners), they can represent more value if you notice them before everyone else.
10. Record every bet you make and review them each month Discipline is paramount and essential for weeding out bad value bets.
6 10 Books To Read To Enhance Your Betting Knowledge
1. Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games are Won by Tobias J. Moskowitz & L. Jon Wertheim. �This book attempts to overturn some of the most cherished truisms of sports, and reveal the hidden forces that shape how basketball, baseball, football, and hockey games are played, won and lost.�
2. Enemy Number One - The Secrets of the Uk's most feared professional punter by Patrick Veitch “Enemy Number One is the sensational inside story of Patrick Veitch, the UK's most feared professional punter, and how he overcame adversity to take the bookmakers for more than £10 million over an eight-year period.”
3. Mathematics in Games, Sports, and Gambling by Ronald J. Gould. ”This book shows how discrete probability, statistics, and elementary discrete mathematics are used in games, sports, and gambling situations. It draws on numerous examples, questions, and problems to explain the application of mathematical theory to various real-life games.”
4. Sports Betting: Profiting from Point Spreads by Daniel Fabrizio & Joseph Hunter. ”This book introduces strategies and tactics that turn the sports betting market into a more businesslike activity. We prefer the term „sports investor‟ instead of „sports bettor‟ because we take a professional view of the sports marketplace.”
5. Weighing The Odds by King Yao ”The purpose of this book is to give you tools to succeed at sports betting, to show you how to evaluate, compare and view sports betting from an analytical perspective, not from a gambling perspective.”
6. Freud On Course - The Racing Lives of Clement Freud by Sir Clement Freud “Sir Clement Freud was a fearless punter, winning a fortune after backing himself to win the 1973 Ely by-election at 33-1. He also visited racecourses all over the world. And his racing journalism was characterised by a wit and understanding unmatched by any other writer.”
7. The Odds: One Season, Three Gamblers, and the Death of their Las Vegas by Chad Millman ”This book paints a vivid portrait of Las Vegas in light and shadow and follows three [bettors] throughout the NCAA season, taking readers behind the scenes and into their lives as they win, lose and eventually risk everything.”
8. No Easy Money - A Gamblers Diary by Dave Nevison “Dave Nevison gives a no holds barred account of life on the road, betting on the top racetracks in Britain and the adventures that go with it. His avowed aim was to make a GBP 1 million, giving a detailed account of the bets, how they are doing and the emotional highs and lows that go with it. “
9. Sports Arbitrage: Riskless Investment by George Lynam. ”This book provides the theory and practice of this riskless investment and with many examples shows how it is possible to generate a substantial income even from a small starting bank. If you want to take a look into the exciting world of riskless sports investment, whether you‟re a beginner or professional, then this book is for you. You‟re guaranteed to learn something new.”
10. Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. “A majority of the book focuses on sports betting. Four in-depth winning models are demonstrated for MLB, NFL, NCAA Football and WNBA. In addition to methods for handicapping these sports, there are explanations of a variety of approaches to exploit sports market inefficiencies and incorrect assumptions of bookmakers. The approaches to stock betting challenges commonly accepted knowledge.”