Still Paying: CIVCAS and Human Development

Still Paying: Civilian Casualties (CIVACS) and Human Development

Figure 1

This map reveals the number of civilian casualties in each country since 1989; lighter shading represents a higher number of casualties. The countries in beige are the ones that had either no data, or 0 civilian casualties. The data for this map comes from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and is pulled from thousands of news sources.

A bombshell rocks the house of Izzeldin Abuelaish, a Palestinian refugee living in the Gaza strip in 2007. In a terror-filled daze Abuelaish, a father of eight, rushes to his daughter’s bedroom – the site of the impact. A gruesome sight meets him, two of his beloved daughters and his niece have been dismembered by the blast.1 On July 12, 2020, a six-bedroom structure in Northern Yemen hosts twelve women and children between five and fifty-five years old; they are about to sit down for a midday meal. A missile, said to have gone awry due to bad weather, hits the house and

Figure 2 This map is the UNDP’s most recent Human Development Index map. As with the previous map, a darker shade indicates a better HDI rating. The HDI score considers health, education, and have economic conditions (each with their own indicators). The HDI is a highly respected indicator as it takes a holistic approach to measuring development.

A bombshell rocks the house of Izzeldin Abuelaish, a Palestinian refugee living in the Gaza strip in 2007. In a terror-filled daze Abuelaish, a father of eight, rushes to his daughter’s bedroom – the site of the impact. A gruesome sight meets him, two of his beloved daughters and his niece have been On July 12, 2020, a six-bedroom structure in Northern Yemen hosts twelve women and children between five and fifty-five years old; they are about to sit down for a midday meal. A missile, said to have gone awry due to bad weather, hits the house and leaves nine dead.2

Figure 3

Civilian casualties map with locations of armed conflicts added.

These stories are only two among millions, each as heart wrenching as the next. Civilian casualties, henceforth referred to as a CIVCAS, are a devastating product of armed violence and are destructive to the communities in which they occur. This study examined the degree to which these casualties impact the development level of the country. Figure 1 represents the number of casualties caused by armed conflict in each country; lighter shades indicate higher casualty numbers.

To compare, Figure 2 is a map of Human Development Index (HDI) ratings from 2017, the most recent data available. One can immediately see that many areas— such as South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine—that have high civilian casualties also have low HDI ratings. There are a number of cases that have low civilian casualties and low HDI (such as Guyana and Papua New Guinea), or high CIVCAS and high HDI (such as Nigeria and Thailand). These instances are a minority.

For the most part, countries with low CIVCAS have higher HDI and vice versa. Significantly, this is insufficient evidence to draw the conclusion that civilian casualties are the sole, or even greatest, contributor to the low HDI. Figure 3 plots each instance of armed conflict in the same period and shows a direct correlation between the number of armed conflicts in a country and the number of civilian, or non-combatant, deaths. Therefore, it is highly possible that the decrease in HDI is related to other factors of war, including disruption of economic activity, redirection of government finances, interruption of education, etc. Despite the inconclusiveness of this data, it seems unlikely that civilian casualties are not a contributing factor to a long-term decrease in HDI. Civilian injuries and deaths will undoubtedly decrease life expectancy, stress can increase infant mortality, orphaned children may have less access to an education, and working-class non-combatants will no longer contribute to society. All of these are HDI indicators. The case of Afghanistan, explored in the next section, clearly demonstrates that CIVCAS plays an important role in human development.

The Case of Afghanistan, 2020

The political conflict in Afghanistan, between the Taliban and Afghan Government, became an international conflict on September 11, 2001. As part of the war against terrorism, the United States sent troops to Afghanistan, effectively overthrowing the Taliban, and killing Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden. The intricacies of this war are beyond the scope of this article, but there are a few elements that are inseparable from the case of civilian deaths in Afghanistan. First, there are many players in the conflict who share responsibility for the 3,035 civilian deaths and 5,785 injuries that happened in 2020: the Taliban (45%), anti-government insurgents (17%), Afghan National Security (22%), international military forces (1%), and pro-government armed groups/forces (2%). The remaining 13% of civilian casualties have been attributed to crossfire and other indistinguishable causes. Second, most of the conflict is between forces that are supporting the democratic Afghan government, while the other forces, such as the Taliban, are determined to reinstate Islamic rule under Sharia law. This is a simplified version of the conflict, but the foundation for the violence that leads to civilian casualties.

The greatest cause of civilian death in 2020 was ground engagements (872) and improvised explosive devices (IED’s)—727 non-suicide and 145 suicide. These were followed by targeted killings (707), airstrikes (341), explosive remnants of war (103), and “other” (140). Children are disproportionately impacted by explosive remnants of war, making up 80% of these casualties.3 United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachalet, stated in the Afghanistan Protection of Civilians Report 2020 that “Afghanistan remains among the deadliest places in the world to be a civilian.”

Assessing HDI in Afghanistan

The impacts on civilians can be divided into the three categories that the HDI uses to assess human development: Health, education, and standard of living. Currently, Afghanistan has a rating of 0.511 on the HDI and ranks 169th in the world.

Health

The Human Development index measures health according to average life expectancy at birth. Currently, in Afghanistan, this is 64.8. conflict because of the increased risk of being killed in the conflict. It is also important to consider the long-term impact of civilian deaths on life expectancy. Perhaps the greatest lasting impacts are a result of infrastructure damage to hospitals and doctors, which increased in Afghanistan in 2020.5 Even once the conflict ends, the lack of doctors and hospital s most appalling examples of this kind of civilian murder was on May 12, 2020 when armed groups forced their way into a Kabul City maternity ward shooting and throwing hand grenades. The maternity wing was destroyed; twenty-three civilians— mostly doctors and mothers who had just given birth—were killed and twenty-three were injured. In a survey conducted by UNAMA, one man shares his testimony: “[He] was my only son. He was twenty-eight years old. In the past twenty-eight years, I worked very hard but did not let him work. I left him to focus on his education. In just a few months he was going to graduate from the medical faculty and after that he was going to have a job to support the family financially. Unfortunately, he was killed, and I lost all hope.”6 Killing civilian doctors decreases the capacity of hospitals to effectively treat patients. Emotional distress, which was reported by 100% of the 132 individuals interviewed by UNAMA, can also contribute to miscarriages and health defects, ultimately decreasing longevity. Most individuals feel that there are no services available to help them with their mental health.7 Health is a multifaceted dimension and will also be impacted by the quality of life and education. Gross national income (GNI) is impacted as businesses struggle to import or export goods, become seriously unappealing to capital investors, and are damaged beyond repair. Other civilian workers are unable to get to work due to the uncertain safety conditions. The long-term ramifications of these economic indicators are serious as the country loses skilled labour, falls behind other developing nations in the capital market, and families are forced into cycles of poverty.

Quality of Life

The quality-of-life dimension in the HDI is determined by GNI per capita. The GNI of Afghanistan is $2,229 in 2017 PPP, as compared to Canada which is $48,527. The 2020 survey conducted by UNMA showed that 80% of victims of CIVCAS (either directly or having lost someone close to them) stated that their primary need was income assistance—some having lost their primary breadwinner, damage to property or business, and increased medical expenses. Other individuals are simply no longer able to work due to their injuries.8 Many civilians who were previously contributing to the GNI of Afghanistan, or becoming educated to do so, have been killed by armed groups. A suffering parent shared, “My son was a student of the law faculty—We had a lot of dreams for our son because he was the only one in our family who had a higher education…It is becoming everyday business in Afghanistan that parents lose or witness the death of their sons and beloved ones.”9 Only 24% of the victims interviewed received any kind of material aid, and many verbalized their lack of faith in the system. In addition to the murder of working civilians, GNI is impacted as businesses struggle to import or export goods, become seriously unappealing to capital investors, and are damaged beyond repair. Other civilian workers are unable to get to work due to the uncertain safety conditions. The long-term ramifications of these economic indicators are serious as the country loses skilled labour, falls behind other developing nations in the capital market, and families are forced into cycles of poverty.

Education

The education component of the HDI is measured by mean years of schooling for adults and expected years for children entering school. Currently, the mean years of schooling in Afghanistan is only 3.9 years, while the expected years of schooling is 10.2 years. These figures are nearly halved for women. Education is critical for human development. It impacts health, since doctors must be educated and individual must know how to engage in proper hygiene, and GNI. In 2020, 258 schools were closed due to Taliban military mobilization against schools. with violence and insecurity, decreasing women’s access to education and overall literacy.12 Due to strong Islamic values in Afghanistan, girls are often only allowed to be educated by female teachers, creating a destructive cycle. As fewer girls are educated, fewer female teachers will be available, and there will be even fewer opportunities for girls to be educated. This is in addition to Taliban attacks on girls, boys, and teachers on route to school or at schools.

The impacts on civilians can be divided into the three categories that the HDI uses to assess human development: Health, education, and standard of living. Currently, Afghanistan has a rating of 0.511 on the HDI

The Human Development index measures health according to average life expectancy at birth. Currently, in Afghanistan, this is 64.8.4 Life expectancy at birth is immediately decreased in times of armed conflict because of the increased risk of being killed in the conflict. It is also important to consider the long-term impact of civilian deaths on life expectancy. Perhaps the greatest lasting impacts are a result of Even once the conflict ends, the lack of doctors and hospital space will limit access to proper healthcare. One of the most appalling examples of this kind of civilian murder was on May 12, 2020 when armed groups forced their way into a Kabul City maternity ward shooting and throwing hand grenades. The maternity wing was destroyed; twenty-three civilians— mostly doctors and mothers who had just given birth—were killed and twenty-three were injured. In a survey conducted by UNAMA, one man shares his testimony: “[He] was my only son. He was twenty-eight years old. In the past twenty-eight years, I worked very hard but did not let him work. I left him to focus on his education. In just a few months he was going to graduate from the medical faculty financially. Unfortunately, he was killed, and I Killing civilian doctors decreases the capacity of hospitals to effectively treat patients. Emotional distress, which was reported by 100% of the 132 individuals interviewed by UNAMA, can also contribute to miscarriages and health defects, ultimately decreasing longevity. Most individuals feel that there are no services Health is a multifaceted dimension and will also be impacted by

A malnourished Afghan child, weighing 14 pounds (6.4 kg) at 18 months of age, is treated by a US Army medical team member in Paktya, Afghanistan, December 7, 2007. Capt. John Severns, Wikimedia Commons.

The education component of the HDI is measured by mean years of schooling for adults and expected years for children entering school. Currently, the mean years of schooling in Afghanistan is only 3.9 years, while the expected years of schooling is 10.2 years. These figures are nearly halved for women. Education is critical for human development. It impacts health, since doctors must be educated and individual must know how to engage in proper hygiene, and GNI. In 2020, 258 schools were closed due to Taliban military mobilization against schools.11 Girls are often the first to stop attending school when a region is faced Due to strong Islamic values in Afghanistan, girls are often only allowed to be educated by female teachers, creating a destructive cycle. As fewer girls are educated, fewer female teachers will be available, and there will be even fewer opportunities for girls to be educated. This is in addition to Taliban attacks on girls, boys, and

Conclusion

HDI is impacted by many factors, but there appears to be a negative correlation between increase in civilian deaths and increase in HDI. Although it is impossible from this data to determine the degree to which CIVCAS impacts HDI, a deeper look at the impacts of CIVCAS on civilian functionality shows a strong connection. Therefore, in addition to the ethical reasons for protecting civilian populations, decreasing civilian casualties must be a priority for an international community committed to human development. While it is the responsibility of each group responsible for CIVCAS to take ownership of their role in innocent loss of life, the international community has learned some key lessons that have contributed to a decrease in CIVCAS in the past.13 1. Training soldiers before they go into the field on principals and risk factors, as well as training them to identify civilians—in addition to reducing CIVCAS, it leads to an increase mission effectiveness. 2. Tracking and analyzing CIVCAS increases accountability and provides additional information that helps with region specific mitigation of CIVCAS. 3. Air-to-ground CIVCAS often have more casualties per incident and the international community should exhibit restraint in using this technology in civilian populated areas. Ultimately, the cost of providing proper training to soldiers is likely far lower than the ongoing costs to human development in years to come.

Olivia Knull

International Studies major (international development and cultural change track) major