Post-Trump - not easy

The Post-Trump era

Finally. US elections over! … Or not really, sort of. Maybe.. Let us recap a few things:

The presidential election is conducted in the states. That means that either trump or Biden had to win the majority of votes in any given state. By doing so, they will then win the number of electors per state. The number of electors (all 558 of them) per state is determined of how big the state is. The bigger the state, the bigger the number of electors.

Alaska is sending three electors, Georgia is sending 16 and so on.

Biden got enough votes in some of the big states (and the smaller ones as well) to cross the barrier of 270 electors.

The tradition is that the losing party (Trump this time) will acknowledge the loss and congratulate the incoming president. That is then it. Biden gets into pre-president mode.

Oh yes: the inauguration is 20 January – the formal date of handover from one president to another. At 12:00 20 January, Trump is no more president.

By recognising defeat, the outgoing administration is then also freeing up funds for the incoming president’s team to get started on doing the business. Like appointing different officials.

Trump is still believing that he won. He is now going to court (in a very big way) to demand a re-count as he is claiming that there is fraud.

Nobody has been able to prove any fraud and trump has not provided any evidence.

In essence: Biden cannot start in any meaningful way right now – as was otherwise the tradition.

By 20 December, the electors are meeting and ‘voting’ for a new president. Then their vote is taken to the House and the senate for verification. So, beginning of January, we have a final tally and that should be it.

Oh yes! Another thing: If you click all the votes together for Biden and Trump (regardless of which state) we get the ‘popular’ vote.

Biden is getting some 75 million, Trump some 70 million.

It is of course great for Biden and so on. Biden campaigned on principles and programmes.

Trump campaigned on his personality. People voted for Biden’s programmes, but others voted for Trump as the person. THAT is the scary thought.

The Post-Trump era

What do we see as the pressing issues for Biden? One thing is to undo the Trump damage, another is to map out what he actually wants to achieve in the next four years.

Let us look at what impacts us all – globally.

Iran: Biden wants to carry on with the original agreement where Iran scraps its nuclear bomb programme. That is the one Obama negotiated and Trump cancelled. It is a risky one as Iran has used the time to produce more bombready material. EU was a signature on the agreement, so it is rather complex. And of course: will Iran go back to the original agreement?

China: The trade war is hurting the entire world. The US consumers are basically paying the tariffs on imported Chinese goods as the Chinese just lumbered their prices with the tariffs.

The problem is that too many US companies rely on Chinese parts and it is rather time-consuming to try and find a new supplier (quality, price, track record and a million other things). Can Biden get a working relationship with China? Will Hong Kong sour the efforts. And do remember, China is on the prowl in the South China Sea (Spratley’s etc).

Europe: With US having bailed out on a lot issues dear to EU, the US ‘lead’ of the world is diminishing. EU economy is now bigger than the US economy (US is #3 after China and EU). EU is flexing its muscles and the first area will be oil. As Trump cancelled the Iran agreement (JCPOA) EU decided that invoicing and payment of oil from countries party to JCPOA should not be in USD, but in a basket consisting of Euro, Yen and so

on. It takes time to re-direct all these things. It sounds flat, but it is not. It is crucial to US economy. Brexit and UK: Boris probably hoped for another Trump presidency. The hope was for a close relationship with US instead of EU. That hope went out the window with the new bill Boris trying to get through. The one that states that a UK minister can break international agreements and treaties. Now we talk about Northern Ireland of course. And Biden said that tinkering with that agreement will prevent any agreement with the US. Boris: think again! There are many other things on the go, but this is the international stuff – I think