Biofuels 2.0: From Garage to Gargantuan
Jim Lane Editor & Publisher, Biofuels Digest
February 2010 - Stanford-MIT Venture Lab Forum
Your Energy Footprint
You (magnified 500x)
The industrial system that supports you.
Global biomass potential
Global energy demand 400 quads
Global biomass potential 21,000 quads
Global biomass potential
0.001% 2%
98% Food
Energy
Underutilization
Advanced Biofuels 2009-13 Millions of gallons
2,000 1679.19
1,500
934.19
1,000
500 266.13 119.2
0
6.73
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ad’vanced bi’o’fuels (n.) - biofuel made from non-food biomass, using an advanced processing technology.
US Biofuels Mandates Millions of gallons
20,000 16550 15200
15,000
13950 12950 11100
10,000
5,000
0
6
119
266
934
1679
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Advanced Biofuels
All Biofuels
Global oil consumption Millions of gallons
1,500,000 1,301,517
1,327,540
1,408,803
1,381,180
1,354,098
1,125,000
750,000
375,000
0
6 11100
119 12950
266 13950
934 15200
16550
1679
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Advanced Biofuels
All Biofuels
Oil demand
Why bio: storage
15,000 12225
11,250
7,500
3,750 700
0
Bio (molecular)
Electrons
Wh/kg
Why bio: mobility
0.4 35%
0.3
0.2
0.1 1%
0
Bio (molecular)
Electrons
Transmission loss
Why now: Proven oil reserves Years remaining Current usage (1.48 Tg/yr): 35 years Energy justice case: (6.8 Tg/yr): 7.6 years
Source: BP reference case
Current industrial model sustainability challenges
Time cost of industrial model
Energy cost of industrial model
Social cost of industrial model
Old Industrial “scale� model
New Distributed model
Raw materials
Labor
Raw materials
Labor
End users
Processor
Processor
End users
Bioenergy Horizons Technology
Scale
Process integration