Analysis of factors affecting evacuation in football stadiums using multi-agent models.

Analysis of Factors affecting Evacuation in a Football Stadium using Multi-Agent Models

Football Stadium cum Mixed use project

Contents

• Introduction

• Needs identified

• Problems considered

• Justification

• Research Questions

• Research Methodology

• Aim

• Objective

• Research Methodology

• Literature Studies

• Case Study

• Using the Multi-Agent Software

• Inferences

• Design Consideration

• Conclusion

Introduction

• Crowd and group simulation have been becoming increasingly important in stadium construction nowadays.

• These softwares range from entertainment to more serious use like pedestrian behaviour in real time and panic situations.

• This paper summarizes a synthesis of what has been done in the field of Multi-Agent based softwares and how it can be useful in designing football stadiums.

Needs identified

• The stadiums designed in recent times have been simulated using these softwares and providing accurate results.

• Emergency situations during egress or any other situation can easily be simulated using this software.

Problems Considered

• There have been many fatal incidents in the past and some even continue to happen during football matches due to improper analysis and restrictions.

• With the advent of many Multi-Agent softwares on the market, selecting the proper software for the analysis is necessary.

Justification

• Considering the nature of a stadium evacuation, however, problems may arise on account of various issues, such as spectator seat and concourse-exit bottlenecks, leading to spectator accumulation during the evacuation from these areas.

• Another issue may be an excessive accumulation easily causing a secondary disaster, such as stampedes, whereby evacuation guidance becomes difficult.

• However, although the guidelines method and verification method are easy means of calculating evacuation times, regardless of whether an accumulation is comparatively considered, or even if one calculates the number of accumulated people, it may not be easy to place these accumulation conditions into an actual plan and then observe them.

Research Questions

• What are the factors that affect eggress in a stadium?

• When and where do these incidents occur?

• Which parameters can be identified during the simulation?

• How can these results help in designing stadiums?

Purpose and Goal

• The purpose of this paper is to study the theory and available material regarding evacuations, especially mass evacuations but also at an individual and group level in a stadium and generate a simulation to finally deduce design considerations.

• Great focus will be on human behavior and different movement patterns associated with evacuations of larger crowds.

Research Methodology

Fabricating the Aims, Objectives, and the method.

Limitations

• Here, in this research, only a part of a stadium is considered.

Literature studies are done to identify parameters and different situations.

• Since the stadium to be considered is D.Y Patil Stadium, only one stand along with two staircases and a spectator capacity of 60,000.

Identifying the data to be collected for the simulation.

• A stand was considered for the simulation.

Case Study done with respect to the data identified.

A model is made using the Multi-Agent software.

Inferences from simulation

Conclusions on different situations in the simulation.

AIM

• To inspect and survey a stadium and analyze factors that dictate crowd evacuation strategies.

OBJECTIVE

• To identify the critical factors affection evacuations using literature studies.

• To opt for a Multi-Agent Software that is going to be used for generating the simulation and analysis. (PathFinder).

• To carry out Case Study of a section of a stadium. (D.Y.Patil Stadium)

• To assess the simulation using different parameters and situations identified.

• To analyse the observations and come up with design considerations.

Literature Studies

• The literature studies were conducted with the focus on human behavior, group dynamics, movement and behavior patterns in fire and evacuations. The most important aspects and theories of these studies were briefly summarized.

• One definition of mass evacuation that will be used here highlights that there are three factors that have to be fulfilled (Drury & Cocking, 2007).

• 1. A mass of people needs to be involved.

• 2. There must be a perceived threat to life.

• 3. And finally, there must be a reasonable chance that within a limited time, be able to escape from danger.

Three Literature studies were examined:

• Ibrox Football Stadium, 1971

• Bradford City Fire, 1981

• Hillsborough Disaster, 1989

Ibrox Football Stadium, 1971

• On January the 2nd in 1971, 66 spectators became victims and lost their lives to one of the first accidents that has been well documented at a sport ground. In addition to the deaths there were about 150 people that got injured.

• The arena had reached its maximum capacity and there were around 80 000 people attending Ibrox this evening. These two factors, the euphoria of the spectators and the high pressure, due to the full seated stadium was underlying causes to the accident.

• The accident took place at stairway 13 when people fell and the main cause of death was compressive asphyxia as the people piled up. The theory behind the accident is still uncertain but it is believed to depend on someone tripping on his or her way down the stairway, a domino effect set in and more people fell over.

Hillsborough Disaster, 1989

• When the capacity was exceeded pressure was built up from the people trying to enter from the back of the stand. As many as 96 people died and more than 400 got injured due to the crowd crush. Compressive asphyxia was the main cause of death.

• Over 50,000 spectators were on the site this day. The match was played at a neutral location and for various reasons a large part of the audience were late. As a result of this the police had difficulties handling the large number of fans outside the stadium.

• To handle the escalating situation a new entrance was opened to enter the stands. Because of the excessive amount of people trying to enter, great forces and pressures propagated through the crowd. The people closest to the fences, that shielded the pitch, were finally crushed

The staircase where the accident occurred.

Fans rushing to the ground after the disaster.

Human Psychology during emergency condition

Crowd movement is described by three qualitative characteristics (Proulx, 2002).

1. Density.

2. Speed.

3. Flow.

Density is the measurement of people per unit, often expressed in people/m2. Speed is often expressed as distance per unit time, i.e. m/s. Flow is the number of people passing a specific reference point expressed in people/s.

These three characteristics have a relation in the form of

Flow = Speed * Density * Width (Proulx, 2002).

Analysis

What is a Multi Agent Software?

• Here Humans are modelled as autonomous agents who interact with a virtual environment and with each other.

• These agents have their own characteristics and parameters.

• Depending on the behavioral levels and the environment they could interact and react in a manner.

• The main objective established here would be to use this software(PathFinder), to observe the random dynamics in the simulation environment.

Case Study

• The case study was done considering only one stand. (Gate G)

• Measuring Tape and Apps were used to measure the dimensions.

Before Simulation

• A 3D model was prepared in SketchUp

• It was then imported into the software.

• The parameters identified before such as spectator behaviour were set to random.

• All elements are divided into five categories.

Simulation

The density of people per square m and the level of service provided, time taken to exit and the speed can be determined and different contour maps are generated.

Observations

• There is a lot of accumulation near the concourse.

• Density near the staircase is the highest and merging of the crowd occurs.

• Accumulation occurs near the seating.

• Speed is relatively slow near staircases.

Design Considerations

Design Considerations

• It is ideal to avoid merging around stairways. However, if it is unavoidable, the merged passage stairway width should be secured as sufficient to stream the total flow before merging as it is.

• Preventative physical measures, such as installing handrails, should be taken.

• The merging flow volume around stairways should be reduced by such measures as limiting the number of concourse exits. In other words, accumulations should occur in flat wide places, such as concourses, so that they are not created in unstable stairways. This also facilitates the easiness of evacuation guidance.

Design Considerations

• It is necessary to either not causes accumulations in concourses, which are destinations for this outflow, or to avoid any accumulations that extend in front of spectator seat exits.

• Evacuees tend to remain behind vertical passageways, in addition the stands become steeper with increasing height. On the other hand, smoke rises and accumulates in enclosed and roofed facilities. Therefore reducing the evacuation time from upper spectator seats and the high-density accumulation time on unstable vertical passageways are necessary.

• To ease accumulation and merging in evacuation routes past the concourses in lower-level spectator seating areas where the incline of the stands is relatively slight and a low possibility of smoke exposure exists.

Conclusions

• The results of this research proposes that the major problem is the amount of people gathered in small spaces like areas around staircases. Most problems regarding mass evacuations seem to be connected to overcrowded spaces and accumulations.

• Crowd Simulation is a very versatile way of determining various important parameters namely, time taken for evacuation, denity of people, speed of the occupants, while eggress.

References

• Al Bosta, S., 2010. Crowd Management Based on Scientific Research to Prevent Crowd Panic and Disasters. In: J. D. Averill, E. D. Kuligowski & R. D. Peacock, eds. Appert-Rolland, C. et al., 2012.

• Experimental Study of the Following Dynamics of Pedestrians. In: U. Weidmann, U. Kirsch & M. Schreckenberg, eds.

• R.Frias,. 2014, Crowd Simulation Modelling applied to Emergency and Evacuation simulations using MultiAgent Systems.

• Marcus Freiberg,. 2010, Mass evacuation - human behavior and crowd dynamics

• Peter Gronberg, 2015., Data collection and analysis of evacuation situations

• Naoheiro Takeichi, 2018., Design guidelines for crowd evacuation in a stadium for controlling evacuee accumulation and sequencing

Name of The Paper: Crowd Simulation Modelling applied to Emergency and Evacuation simulations using Multi-Agent Systems.

Publisher: National Laboratory of Civil Engineering, Porto, Portugal

Authors: Dr. Roberto Frias

Type of Paper: Journal

Institution: National Laboratory of Civil Engineering

To discuss aspects of Crowd Modelling that already exist and propose a new framework for emergency and evacuation situations.

• Multi-Agent systems are the preferred approach here.

• Propose a model structure

• List down the attributes that decide an agent.

• Use the software to generate a simulation.

• Agent Attributes as proposed.

• Software for creating 3d model.

Limitations:

Social Parameters,

FDS PyroSIM PathFinder 3D modelling software.

• Literature Studies on factors that decide evacuation planning.

• Modelling a 3d Drawing of any Structure.

• Using any MultiAgent based systems to analyze the different factors.

• Literature Study

• Concepts

• Crowd Behavior in different situations.

Name of The Paper: Mass evacuation - human behavior and crowd dynamics

Publisher: Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden

Authors: Markus Friberg & Michael Hjelm

Type of Paper: Report

Institution: Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden

To give a brief summary of the knowledge and research that have been conducted in the field of pedestrian and evacuation dynamics as well as behavior in fire, with focus on sport stadiums and other event areas.

To study the theory and available material regarding evacuations, especially mass evacuations but also at an individual and group level. Great focus will be on human behavior and different movement patterns associated with evacuations of larger crowds.

• Crowd Disasters

• Human Behavior

• Pedestrian Dynamics

• Crowd Management

• Literature Studies

• Computer Simulation Programs.

• Safety Guidelines.

Disasters were first described and then examined further, and the causes and mistakes were analyzed. A summary was made on how individuals are affected and behave during fires. Influence from other people and group behavior during and before they begin to move was examined.

Different patterns during mass evacuations and in crowded situations were studied. Some simulation programs, with the attempt to predict and calculate movement time, and when and where critical situations could occur were explored. Different methods and guidelines that are used by management teams to prevent disasters have been evaluated. Finally an analysis and discussion of the report were conducted

• Time Taken

• Movement. Patterns.

• Literature Studies.

• Discussions.

• Computer Program.

• Crowd Management Strategies.

Name of The Paper: Data collection and analysis of evacuation situations

Publisher: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Authors: Tuomo Rinne, Kati Tillander & Peter Grönberg

Type of Paper: Research Paper

Institution: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

This study covers data from 18 evacuation situations in different building types ranging from a single hospital ward to a stadium. Twelve of the cases were ordinary evacuation drills, four were real fire alarms and the remaining two were normal but congested situations. The data gathered are designed for the buildings’ safety and security staff, the fire authorities, the fire safety engineers and the model developers. The results obtained from the evacuation situations are represented using quantitative and general approaches to link similar data together. The original data from the single evacuation cases are also represented individually.

To conduct case studies of various situations were done using Video Cameras, Programs, Evacuation Drills and Fire Alarms. Analysis of Evacuation processes are done by quantitative analysis. A generalized qualitative analysis is also prepared.

• Type of Observation.

• Evacuation Time

• Walking Speed

• Route Selections.

• Pre-Evacuation Actions

• During Evacuation actions.

18 case studies were conducted first with different equipment. Different parameters were observed, both quantitative and qualitative. These parameters were recorded to create observations of each study. Final observations on these parameters were found.

The factors that would affect the evacuation in a high population density situation. Quantitative and Qualitative observations.

Name of The Paper: Design guidelines for crowd evacuation in a stadium for controlling evacuee accumulation and sequencing

Publisher: Japan Architectural Review

Authors: Yoshikazu Minegishi and Naohiro Takeichi

Type of Paper: Research Journal

Institution: Design Management Department, Takenaka Corporation, Koto-ku, Tokyo, Japan

To propose guidelines for the design and management of crowd evacuation by showing the process of an actual design project for a large-scale 40 000seat stadium using a multi-agent evacuation simulator.

The Study is proceeded whilst discussing three situations: (i)evacuation from the spectator stands, (ii)merging and accumulation around stairs, and (iii)evacuation to/on the ground. We hence propose a design method and crowd management policy that avoid generation of a sequence of accumulations and while guiding on where accumulations should be generated.

Points of Circulation.

Type of Evacuation.

Agent Based Modelling software. A large scale stadium project of capacity 40,000 is used.

• This research clarifies the impact of architectural spaces on crowd flow.

• After this, points of consideration and ideal design and evacuation guidance to effectively control crowd flow through a comparative study are presented.

• To this end, multiple design proposals in accordance with this design process using a multi-agent evacuation simulation are presented.

• Finally they are analyzed to extract general aspect among such large-scale facilities as a guideline of design and evacuation guidance.

Areas where the software can be applied. Study of different types of evacuation.(An alysis and Conclusion.)

Name of The Paper: Analysis Of Evacuation Performance Of Merging Points In Stadiums Based On Crowd Simulation

Publisher: 12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association, Sydney

Authors: Ying Liu, Deming Liu, Norman Badler, and Ali Malkawi

Type of Paper: Joint Research Paper

Institution: School of Design, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA, School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China

To analyze the output value of egress time, waiting time and total cost through the journey, evacuation performances of different design strategies through a multi-agent software called STEPS.

At first, the prescriptive codes related to stadium evacuation were compared, and the characteristics and movements of stadium crowd were studied to build more reliable evacuation simulation scenarios. Next, the design variations of most congested merging points in outdoor stadiums, which involve gangway intersections, vomitorium access and stairway access underneath the stands were investigated. Finally, we used a CG model to simulate the evacuation processes in different cases.

Type of agents considered. Section of the stadium to be studied.

STEPS simulation software. Stadium to be considere d for the study.

• Case studies are done to analyze evacuation simulation supporting stadium egress design and safety evaluation.

• Three merging points with 30 possible layouts or parameters in stadium circulation system were studied numerically using the software STEPS.

• Spectator individual and crowd profiles were set up based on statistical data in consumer behavior studies.

• Design alternatives were selected by investigating numbers of stadium projects.

• Use of Crowd Demography as a factor.

• Description of type of areas and sections in a stadium before studying its Model.

• Defining the type of population considered.