Trends

Phil Castle The Business Times

The monthly unemployment rate has edged down in Mesa County even as the labor force remains at its highest level in more than a year. Add strong labor demand, and Curtis Englehart said he’s encouraged by what trends portend for the year ahead. “It’s a really good sign as we continue the road to recovery,” said Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. The seasonally unadjusted jobless rate slipped a tenth of a point to 4.4 percent between January and February, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. At this time last year, the unemployment rate stood at 7.1 percent.

Labor reports lag at the beginning of the year as the department revises numbers for the year before. The March report is scheduled for release April 15.

For February, Mesa County payrolls increased 458 to 75,237. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work edged down 30 to 3,500. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, grew 428 to 78,737.

Englehart said the labor force has topped 78,000 for the first two months of 2022 after never exceeding that level in 2021.

Between February 2021 and February 2022, payrolls swelled 4,266 even the ranks of the unemployed shrank 1,884. The labor force increased 2,382.

While a labor shortage persists, Englehart said there are more applicants in the local labor pool to fill job openings. “I would say that progress is being made.”

Some applicants who were sitting on the sidelines — perhaps staying home with children during the COVID-19 pandemic — have rejoined the work force, he said. Others have recently relocated to Mesa County and are looking for work. “It’s really kind of a mixed bag.”

April 7-20, 2022 The Business Times News pAge 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Jobless rate edges down t New business filings in Colorado, 13,027 in February, down 3.1% from February 2021. Labor demand as measured by the number of job orders posted at the Mesa Opinion Increasing labor force and job orders also bode well for Mesa County AREA JOBLESS RATES

County Workforce Center remains higher than last year, Englehart said — 740 for February and 1,757 for the first two months of 2022. That total constitutes a nearly 24 percent increase over the same span in 2021. Labor demand remains strongest for jobs in health care, he said. But the warming weather also has bolstered orders for construction and landscaping jobs as well as positions in the hospitality sector. An event connecting employers and applicants is scheduled Business Briefs Business People Almanac n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 107.2 for March, up 1.5. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 53.9 for the second quarter, down 4.1 t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 95.7 for February, down 1.4. Feb. Jan. s Delta County 4.4 4.3 s Garfield County 3.6 3.5 t Mesa County 4.4 4.5 s Montrose County 4.0 3.9 s Rio Blanco County 4.8 4.7 n Foreclosures for 1 to 5 p.m. April 27 with the Grand Valley Career and Job Fair s Foreclosure filings in at Lincoln Park in Grand Junction. The workforce center will join Mesa County, 54 in with Colorado Mesa University in hosting the event, Englehart March, up from 0 in March 2021. Curtis Englehart said. Looking ahead, Englehart said he expects the unemployment s Foreclosure sales in rate to gradually decrease even as the labor force grows and labor Mesa County, 5 in demand remains strong. “All three seem to be trending in the right March, up from direction.” 2 in March 2021. Seasonally unadjusted jobless rates edged up a tenth of a n Indexes point in neighboring Western Colorado counties to 3.6 percent in Garfield County, 4 percent in Montrose County, 4.4 percent in s Conference Board Employment Delta County and 4.8 percent in Rio Blanco County. Trends Index, 120.56 for March, up 1.66. The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slipped two-tenths of a point to 4 percent. That’s the lowest level since the s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 119.9 for February, up 0.3%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 57.1% for March, down 1.5%. rate stood at 2.8 percent in February 2020 and before the onset of the pandemic in the United States. Nonfarm payrolls increased 14,100 between January and February. With that increase, Colorado has regained all the jobs lost in March and April 2020 as a result of the pandemic and related restrictions. Since February 2021, nonfarm payrolls have grown 138,200 — n Lodging or 5.1 percent — with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; s Lodging tax collections in business and professional services; and trade, transportation and Grand Junction, $204,940 utility sectors. for February, up 68% Over the past year, the average workweek for employees on from February 2021. private, nonfarm payrolls shortened four-tenths of an hour to 32.9 n Real estate hours. Average hourly wages increased $2.92 to $33.79. F t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 495 in March, down 11.3% from March 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $203 million in March, up 2% from March 2021. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.3 million for February, up 14.9% from January 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $3.6 million for February, up 13.8% from February 2021. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 4.4% for February, down 0.1.

t Colorado — 4.0% for February, down 0.2. t United States — 3.6% for March, down 0.2.

Consumer Confidence Index rebounds

A monthly measure of consumer confidence has rebounded on more optimistic assessments of current business and labor conditions.

Expectations for the near future were less upbeat, however, as concerns mounted over higher gasoline prices and the war in Ukraine.

“These headwinds are expected to persist in the short term and may potentially dampen confidence as well as cool spending further in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

The New York-based think tank reported its Consumer Confidence Index increased 1.5 points to 107.2 in March after declines in February and January.

The index is based on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

More optimistic assessments of business and labor conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 10 points from February to March to 153.

The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the March index was based who said business conditions were “good” rose two points to 19.6 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” fell three points to 22.1 percent. The proportion of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” rose 3.7 points to 57.2 percent, an historical high. The share of those who said jobs are “hard to get” fell 2.2 points to 9.8 percent. Less upbeat outlooks for the next six months pulled down the expectations component of the index 4.2 points to 76.6. The share of consumers who said they expected business conditions to improve fell 2.6 points to 18.7 percent. The proportion of those who said they anticipated worsening conditions rose 3.9 Lynn Franco points to 23.8 percent. The share of consumers who said they expected more jobs to become available in coming months fell two points to 17.4 percent. Still, the proportion of those forecast fewer jobs also declined — 1.9 points to 17.7 percent. While 14.9 percent said they expected their incomes to increases — up two-tenths of a point — 13.7 percent said they expected their incomes to decrease, up seven-tenths of a point. F

The Business Times U.S. update: payrolls up, jobless rate down

An increase in payrolls and decrease in unemployment has pushed the United States labor market closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Nonfarm payrolls grew 431,000, and the jobless rate declined two-tenths of a point to 3.6 percent in March, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates.

With the latest numbers, payrolls remain 1.6 million below those for February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The unemployment rate has dropped to within a tenth of a point of the 3.5 percent posted in February 2020.

Estimated payroll gains for the previous two months were revised upward a total of 95,000 to 750,000 for February and 504,000 for January.

For March, 6 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 1.4 million were out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Another 4.2 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were cut or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate rose a tenth of a point to 62.4 percent, a point below the February 2020 level.

Payroll gains in March were spread out among a number of industry sectors. Employment increased 112,000 in leisure and hospitality, 102,000 in business and professional services, 49,000 in retail trades, 38,000 in manufacturing, 25,000 in social assistance and 19,000 in construction.

The average workweek shortened a tenth of an hour to 34.6 hours. The average manufacturing workweek held steady at 40.7 hours.

Average hourly earnings for employees on nonfarm payrolls rose 13 cents to $31.73. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have increased 5.6 percent. F

An index tracking labor trends in the United States has increased, signaling continued job growth in the United States.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose 1.66 points to 120.56 in March. Six of eight components advanced.

“Consistent months of growth in the ETI indicate that employment is growing and the labor market is expanding,” said Agron Nicaj, an associate economist with the Conference Board. F