Trends

Phil Castle The Business Times

The unemployment rate continues to drop in Mesa County as employers enjoy more success in filling job openings. What’s typically a seasonal spike in the jobless rate in June could interrupt the trend. Overall, though, conditions are improving, said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate dropped six-tenths of a point between March and April to 3.3 percent, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Employment and Labor.

The jobless rate has dropped 1.2 points over the last two months to the lowest level since before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. At this time in 2021, the rate stood at 6.3 percent.

Between March and April, Mesa County payrolls were essentially unchanged at 76,204. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work dropped 477 to 2,637. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, shrank 480 to 78,841.

Over the past year, payrolls rose 3,814 or nearly 5.3 percent. The ranks of the unemployed decreased 2,259. The labor force swelled 1,555.

The jobless rate usually increases in June as high school and college graduates join the work force, but haven’t yet found positions. Afterwards, Englehart said he expects the rate to slip further, although at a slower pace.

While employers still face labor shortages, there are some indications the situation is improving, he said. “It does feel like a little more relief than we had last year.”

The number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center are beginning to decrease on a year-over-year basis despite continued demand, he said. “That’s telling me a lot

May 26-June 8, 2022 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Jobless rate retreats of those openings have been filled.” For April, 809 job orders were posted. That’s down almost 23 percent from the 1,046 orders posted for the same month last year. Through the first four months of 2022, 3,379 orders were posted. That’s up slightly from the 3,338 orders posted for the same span in 2021. But Englehart said he expects that to change because orders Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 107.3 for April, down 0.3. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 53.9 for the second quarter, down 4.1 n National Federation of Independent Business Small t New business filings in Colorado, 43,780 in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2021. Labor shortage persists, but supply starting to catch up with demand AREA JOBLESS RATES April March t Delta County 3.4 4.0 t Garfield County 2.8 3.2 t Mesa County 3.3 3.9 t Montrose County 3.3 3.8 t Rio Blanco County 3.9 4.5 Business Optimism Index exceeded 1,000 for most months last year. 93.2 for April, unchanged. Employers participating in a recent job fair the Mesa County n Foreclosures s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 24 in April, up from 4 in Curtis Englehart Workforce Center staged in conjunction with Colorado Mesa University reported receiving quality applications for openings, he said. Englehart said there’s strong demand across most industry April 2021. sectors — not only health care, but also construction, manufacturing t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 0 in April, down from and transportation. He said he’s encouraged about the year ahead. “I still feel good about where we are in the economy.” 4 in April 2021. Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also dropped in n Indexes neighboring Western Colorado counties in April: six-tenths of a point to 3.4 percent in Delta County and 3.9 percent in Rio Blanco t Conference Board Employment County, a half point to 3.3 percent in Montrose and four-tenths of Trends Index, 120.18 for a point to 2.8 percent in Garfield County. April, down 0.6. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate edged down a t Conference Board Leading tenth of a point to 3.6 percent, the lowest level since the rate stood Economic Index 119.2 for at 2.8 percent in February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 April, down 0.3%. pandemic in the United States. t Institute for Supply Management Nonfarm payrolls increased 16,600 between March and Purchasing Managers Index April. Over the past two years, Colorado has added 403,500 jobs for manufacturing, 57.1% for — more than the 374,500 jobs lost in March and April 2020 as a April, down 1.2%. result of the pandemic and related restrictions. n Lodging Over the past year, payrolls grew 129,000 with the largest s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $226,835 for March, up 58.7% from March 2021. n Real estate gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. Over the past year, the average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened two-tenths of an hour to 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings increased 11 cents to $34.34. F t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 448 in April, down 7.1% from April 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $197 million in April, up 6.5% from April 2021. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5 million for March, up 13% from March 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.5 million for April, up 4.6% from April 2021. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 3.3% for April, down 0.6.

t Colorado — 3.6% for April, down 0.1. n United States — 3.6% for April, unchanged.

Mesa County tax collections trend upward

Tax collections, a measure of sales activity, continue to increase on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County.

The county collected more than $4.1 million in sales taxes in April, a 5.4 percent increase over what was collected for the same month a year ago.

April reports reflect March sales.

Sales, use and lodging tax collections for the City of Grand Junction weren’t available as of press deadline.

Mesa County also collected nearly $381,000 in use taxes in April — nearly all of it from automobiles purchased outside the county, but used in the county. That was a 3.9 percent decrease from the same month last year.

Tax collections on retail sales totaled nearly $2.5 million in April, down six-tenths of a percent from the same month a year ago. Collections increased on the sales of home improvements, food and beverages and sporting goods and other hobbies. Collections decreased on the sales of automobiles, clothing and general merchandise.

Sales tax collections for the month also increased in the hotel and restaurant, manufacturing and telecommunications industries.

Through the first four months of 2022, Mesa County collected more than $15 million in sales taxes. That’s an increase of nearly $1.8 million and 13.5 percent over the same span in 2021.

The county collected almost $1.4 million in use taxes through the first four months of 2022, also a 13.5 increase over a similar span in 2021.

Year-to-date tax collections on retail sales totaled nearly $9.3 million, an increase of more than $700,000 and 8.2 percent over 2021. Collections increased on a year-over-year basis in every retail category but one. Collections edged down four-tenths of a percent on the sales of food and beverages.

Sales tax collections also increased 15.9 percent in the hotel and restaurant industry, 20.5 percent in the manufacturing industry and 35.5 percent in the telecommunications industry. Collections declined 12.6 percent in the oil and natural gas industry.

MESA COUNTY TAX COLLECTIONS

April 2021 April 2022 Change

Use tax $395,454 $380,195 -3.9% Sales tax $3,893,677 $4,104,902 5.4%

Total $4,289,131 $4,485,097 4.6%

Optimism index drops for building, services sectors

A measure of optimism among small business owners fell in the construction and services sectors.

The optimism index for the construction sector fell to 92.3 for April, down seven points from a quarterly report in January. The index for the services sector retreated 2.6 points to 94.2, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.

The reading was higher at 99.1 for the manufacturing sector and came in at 93.4 for retailers.

The overall Small Business Optimism Index held steady at 93.2, unchanged from March.

“Optimism among these industries varies due to their unique set of circumstances and the degree to which inflation, supply chain disruptions and a staffing shortage are impacting their business,” said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center.

The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of surveys of members, most of them small business owners.

Nearly 60 percent of owners in the

construction industry who responded to the survey reported unfilled job openings — the highest proportion among all sectors. Almost 65 percent of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for openings. Among the owners of manufacturing firms, 53 percent reported unfilled job openings. A net 28 percent reported plans to create new jobs over the next three months, eight points higher than the share for all firms. A net negative 2 percent of owners Holly Wade of manufacturing firms said they expect higher sales in the next three months. That compared to a net negative 12 percent among all survey respondents. Most of the decline in optimism among owners of businesses in the services sector reflected less upbeat expectations for improving economic conditions and increased sales. The proportion of those who said they expect increased sales over the next three months fell seven points. At a net negative 9 percent, more owners anticipated decreased sales. Among owners of small businesses in the retail sector, the share of those who expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months dropped 18 points to a net negative 47 percent. Earnings trends retreated from the previous quarter to a net negative 18 percent. F

Leading U.S. index retreats, but continues to signal growth

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has slipped on declines in consumer expectations and residential building permits.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell three-tenths of a percent to 119.2 in April. The index remains up nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

Separate measures of current and past performance increased in April.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said the indexes signal continued growth, but at a moderate pace.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, is still projected to increase Ataman Ozyildirim2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2022.

Challenges persist, however, Ozyildirim said. “A range of downside risks — including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions and pandemicrelated shutdowns, particularly in China — continue to weigh on the outlook.”

The Coincident Economic Index rose four-tenths of a percent to 108.8 in April. The index has increased 1.6 percent over the past six months.

The Lagging Economic Index advanced four-tenths of a percent to 11.6 in April. The index has gained 2.6 percent over the past six months. F

CEO confidence drops for second quarter

A measure of confidence among business executives has dropped to its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

The Conference Board and Business Council reported the Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 42 for the second quarter, down 15 points from the first quarter. Readings below 50 reflect more negative than positive responses.

The declined was attributed to inflation, supply chain issues and expectations for a worsening economy. Fully 60 percent of the executives who responded to the survey said they expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, up from 23 percent in the first quarter. F