The monthly jobless rate dropped in Mesa County as businesses reopened

The Business Times News Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Unemployment rate drops t New business filings in Colorado, 33,848 in the first quarter, down 5.6% from the first quarter of 2018. Opinion Mesa County conditions improve as businesses bring back employees Phil Castle The Business Times ending May 2 to 241 for the week ending May 30. AREA JOBLESS RATES Business Briefs Business People Almanac n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 86.6 in May, up 0.9. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 29.7 for the second quarter, down 21.1. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 94.4 for May, up 4.5. n Foreclosures The monthly unemployment rate has seesawed back down in Mesa County as businesses reopen and bring back employees furloughed by the coronavirus pandemic. “We’re starting to see people get back to work, and we’re excited to see what,” said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. Barring a surge in COVID-19 cases A move to the next phase of guidelines for pandemic restrictions would allow businesses to further expand operations, Englehart said. More outdoor events also would be permitted. While businesses bringing back workers accounted for most of the gain in payrolls, some businesses also are hiring new workers, Englehart said. “It’s a mix of both.” A total of 421 job orders were posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center in May, he said. That’s a decrease from the 796 orders posted for the same month last year, but an increase over May April t Delta County 8.0 10.5 t Garfield County 10.0 13.7 t Mesa County 9.0 12.6 t Montrose County 9.3 12.3 t Rio Blanco County 6.0 7.5 t Foreclosure filings in and related closures, Englehart expects the April. Mesa County, 4 in downward trend in the jobless rate to continue. The Mesa County Workforce Center has reopened, but for May, down from 7 in May 2019. Curtis Englehart There’s a long way to go, though, before labor conditions return to pre-pandemic levels. appointments only, Englehart said. Hours run from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Appointments can be t Foreclosure sales in The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate dropped 3.6 scheduled by calling 248-7560. Staff remains available to provide Mesa County, 0 in May, points to 9 percent in May, according to the latest estimates from services to people filing for unemployment benefits and looking down from 5 in the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. for work as well as employers recruiting new hires. May 2019. The decrease was among the biggest among metropolitan areas Staff also collaborates with the Mesa County Health n Indexes s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 46.28 for May, up 3.75. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 99.8 for May, up 2.8% s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector, 43.1% for May, up 1.6%. n Lodging in Colorado, a decline Englehart attributed in part to the variances Mesa County has received from state orders that have allowed businesses to reopen and expand operations faster than in other areas. Mesa County payrolls increased 4,401 to 69,276. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work decreased 2,512 to 6,866. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, expanded 1,889 to 76,142. Compared to a year ago, when the jobless rate stood at 3 percent, payrolls have contracted 5,173. The ranks of the unemployed have swelled 4,580. The labor force is smaller by 593. Englehart said the drop in the jobless rate from 12.6 percent in April, the highest level in a decade, was nearly entirely a result of employees returning to work following business restrictions and Department to help businesses implement social distancing, cleaning procedures and other pandemic practices, Englehart said. Meanwhile, seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also fell in neighboring Western Colorado counties in May: 3.7 points to 10 percent in Garfield County, three points to 9.3 percent in Montrose County, 2.5 points to 8 percent in Delta County and 1.5 points to 6 percent in Rio Blanco County. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 10.2 percent, down two points from a rate revised upward to 12.2 percent for April. Nonfarm payrolls increased 68,800 between April and May with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality, education and health, manufacturing and construction sectors. Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate has increased t Lodging tax collections in closures in March and April. 7.4 points from 2.8 percent. Nonfarm payrolls have contracted Grand Junction, $49,177 The downward trend in unemployment should continue in 236,200. for May, down 63.2% June, he said. The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm from April 2019. Since peaking at 2,583 for the week ending March 28, initial payrolls has lengthened over the past year a half hour to 33.7 n Real estate filings for unemployment benefits have declined nine consecutive weeks. For May, the pace of filings slowed from 578 for the week hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.17 to $31.39. F t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 347 in May, down 34% from May 2019. Grand Valley tax collections continue to decline n Sales t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $106 million in May, down 27.9% from May 2019. A key indicator of sales activity continues to decline in the Grand Valley as a pandemic and related restrictions affect business operations. The City of Grand Junction reported a 22.5 percent decline in sales and use tax collections in May compared to the same month stays and 60 percent in the oil and natural gas industry. With the May decline, year-to-date sales and use tax collections fell 5.5 percent for the city. County sales and use tax collections remained ahead of last year, but by only two-tenths of a percent. The city collected a total of more than $22.2 million through t Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $3.6 million for May, down 22.5% from May 2019. t Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $2.86 million last year. Mesa County reported an 11.8 percent decrease. Grand Junction lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, fell 63.2 percent. A lagging indicator, collections in May reflect sales and lodging activity in April. The city collected a total of nearly $3.6 million in sales and use taxes in May, a decrease of more than $1 million from the the first five months of 2019, nearly $1.3 million less than the same span in 2019. Sales tax collections were down 6 percent. Use tax collections fell 39.8 percent. The county collected a total of more than $15.1 million, about $33,000 more than the same period last year. Sales tax collections increased 2.96 percent. Use tax collections declined 25.5 percent. for May, down 11.8% from same month last year. Sales tax collections declined 25.3 percent. Year-to-date county tax collections were up 14.4 percent for May 2019. Use tax collections dropped 28.1 percent. retail sales and 10.5 percent on home improvement sales, but n Unemployment The county collected a total of nearly $2.9 million in sales and use taxes, a decease of $383,000 from a year ago. Sales tax down 4.1 percent for autos, 14.4 percent in the hotel and restaurant category and 60.8 percent in the oil and gas category. t Colorado — 10.2% for May, down 2. t Mesa County — 9% for May, down 3.6. t United States — 13.3% for May, down 1.4. collections fell 5.1 percent. Use tax collections — the bulk of it on automobiles purchased outside the county but used in the county — dropped 62.3 percent. While county tax collections increased 11.3 percent on retail sales and 16 percent on home improvement sales, collections decreased 21.7 percent on auto sales, 34.7 percent on restaurant meals and hotel The city collected $49,177 in lodging taxes in May, down $108,557 from the same month last year. Through the first five months of 2020, the city collected $357,812 in lodging taxes. That’s a decrease of nearly $109,000 and 23.3 percent from the same span in 2019. F

June 25-July 8, 2020

Leading index rebounds, but still reflects recession

A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has increased, but still suggests a recession will continue.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 2.8 percent to 99.8 in May. The increase follows a total decrease of 13.6 percent in April and March. A separate measure of current performance increased in May, while Ataman Ozyildirim a measure of past performance decreased.

Ataman Ozyilidirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said a drop in unemployment claims accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in the LEI. Other indicators also bolstered the index.

Overall, though, the index still reflects weak economic conditions, Ozyilidirim said. “The breadth and depth of the decline in the LEI between February and April suggest the economy at large will remain in recession territory in the near term.”

The LEI dropped 10.6 percent over the past six months after no change in the six-month span before that.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, contracted at an annual rate of 5 percent in the first quarter after expanding 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

For May, seven of 10 indicators of the LEI advanced, including average manufacturing hours, building permits, interest rate spread, new orders for capital and consumer goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also buoyed the index. Consumer expectations and new orders and leading credit indexes retreated.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, rose 1.1 percent to 95.3. The index declined 11.1 percent over the past six months.

For May, industrial production and payrolls increased. Income and sales decreased.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past conditions, decreased 1.9 percent to 111.4. The index has increased 2.2 percent over the past three months.

For May, consumer debt and inventories advanced. Commercial and industrial financing and the cost of labor and services retreated. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady. F