Trends

July 15-28, 2021 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors $1 billion and countings New business filings in Colorado, 44,740 in the first quarter, up 32.2% from the first quarter of 2020. Opinion First-half surge in real estate sales expected to continue in Mesa County Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 127.3 in June, up 7.3. s Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs Real estate activity continues to increase in Mesa County, topping $1 billion in sales in the first half of 2021. Business People Index for Colorado, 67.3 for the third quarter, up 2.9. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Robert Bray, for one, expects the trend to continue in the second half. “I still feel good about the remainder of the year,” said Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real Estate in Almanac Business Optimism Index Grand Junction. 102.5 for June, up 2.9. Residential inventories remain low, n Foreclosures n Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 3 in June, unchanged from June 2020. but new construction has picked up. Large commercial transactions boost dollar volume. Annette Miller, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, said 676 real estate transactions worth a total of $255 million were reported in Mesa County in t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 1 in June, down from 3 in June 2020. June. Compared to the same month last year, transactions increased 23.1 percent and dollar volume rose 60.4 percent. n Indexes Sixteen transactions accounted for a total of $39.4 million in dollar volume, Miller said. s Conference Board Employment That included the sale of 1,460 acres of vacant Trends Index, 109.84 for land on Glade Park for $5.3 million, the Mesa June, up 1.14. Pointe Mall in Clifton for $5.2 million and a motel complex on s Conference Board Leading Horizon Drive in Grand Junction for $3.95 million. Economic Index 114.5 for For the first half of 2021, 3,062 real estate transactions worth a May, up 1.5%. total of more than $1 billion were reported, Miller said. Compared t Institute for Supply Management to the first half of 2020, transactions increased 29.6 percent and Purchasing Managers Index dollar volume rose 48.3 percent for manufacturing, 60.6% for The year-over-year increases are larger in part because of the June, down 0.6%. effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions on real n Lodging estate sales in 2020, she said. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $142,536 market, 404 transactions worth a total of $152 million were reported for May, up 189.8% from May 2020. n Real estate Small Business Optimism Index rises

in June. Compared to the same month last year, transactions edged down 1.2 percent even as dollar volume increased 22.6 percent. Through the first half of 2021, 1,995 residential transactions worth a collective $713 million were reported. Compared to the first half of 2020, transactions rose 13.7 percent and dollar volume jumped 37.1 percent. Bray said the numbers would be bigger if residential inventories were more plentiful. At the end of June 2021, there were 293 active listings, down nearly 41 percent from the same time a year ago. Bray said an average of more than 400 homes were listed in each of the last three months, but were quickly purchased. Robert Bray Low supplies and high demands have pushed prices upward, he said. The median price of homes sold during the first half of 2021 increased 19.5 percent to $325,000. Still, that’s less than statewide and nationwide median prices reported by the National Association of Realtors, he said. The pace of home construction has increased, Bray said. For June, 104 building permits for single-family homes were issued in Mesa County. That’s up 70 percent from the same month a year ago. For the first half of 2021, 513 permits were issued. That’s a nearly 51 percent increase over the first half of 2020. Looking ahead to second half of 2021, Bray said he expects Annette Miller real estate activity and home construction to continue to increase, perhaps to record levels. “It’ll still be a good, strong, real estate year.” Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to decrease in Mesa County. Miller said 11 foreclosure filings and 13 foreclosure sales were reported during the first half of 2021. Compared to first half of 2020, filings dropped 84.1 percent and sales dropped 31.6 percent. The four resales of foreclosed properties during the first half of 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all transactions, a fraction of the 10 percent threshold Miller considers indicative of a healthy market. F

s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 676 in June, up 23.1% from June 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $255 million in June, up 60.4% from June 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.83 million for May, up 57.7% from May 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.26 million for June, up 25.4% from June 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 6.0% for May, down 0.7.

t Colorado — 6.2% for May, down 0.2. s United States — 5.9% for June, up 0.1.

A measure of optimism among small business owners has increased, although concerns over labor shortages persist. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.9 points to 102.5 in June. It’s the first time the index has topped 100 since November. The average reading fo the 47-year-old index is 98. “Small business optimism is rising as the economy opens up, yet a record number of employers continue to report that there are few or no qualified applicatants for open positions,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB.

“Owners are also having a hard time keeping their inventory stocks up with strong sales and supply chain problems,” Dunkelberg said.

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners.

For June, seven of 10 components of the index advanced and three retreated.

The proportion of those who responded to the survey upon which the June index was based who said they expect the economy to improve jumped 14 points from May. But at a net negative 12

percent, more respondents indicated they still expect worsening conditions. A record 11 percent of respondents said they plan to increase inventories, up five points. Meanwhile, a net 11 percent said current inventories are too low, up three points. A net 25 percent reported plans to make capital outlays, down two points. A net 15 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, up two points. A net 7 percent said they expect higher sales, up five points. The proportion of those reporting higher earnings rose six points. But a net negative 5 percent, more reported lower earnings. Bill Dunkelberg Among those reporting higher earnings, 66 percent credited increased sales and 9 percent cited higher prices. Among those reporting lower earnings, 35 percent blamed lower sales and 25 percent cited increased materials costs. A net 28 percent of those who responded to the survey reported plans to increase employment, up a point. At the same time, though, a net 46 percent reported unfilled job openings, off two points from the record set in May. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 26 percent cited labor quality and 8 percent cited labor costs. A record-high 39 percent of respondents reported raising compensation, and 26 percent said they plan to raise compensation in the next three months.

The Business Times

July 15-28, 2021 Payrolls swell as jobless rate edges up Labor index rises

U.S. payrolls swelled in June, with the biggest gain in the leisure and hospitality sector. The unemployment rate edged up, however, as workers voluntarily left positions.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 850,000 and the jobless rate rose a tenth of a point to 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Estimated payroll gains for May and April were revised upward 15,000 to a total of 852,000.

Payrolls have grown 15.6 million since April 2020, but remain 6.8 million below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

For June, 9.5 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 4 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer. Another 4.6 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate was unchanged at 61.6 percent, although 942,000 people quit their previous jobs in June and began looking for new employment.

Employment increased 343,000 in the leisure and hospitality sector as pandemic restrictions eased in restaurants and bars. Still, employment in the secttor remains 2.2 million below the February 2020 level.

Payrolls increased 155,000 in local government education, 72,000 in professional and business services, 67,000 in retail trade and 15,000 in manufacturing. Payrolls contracted 7,000 in construction as job losses among nonresidential contractors and in heavy and civil engineering construction more than offset gains for residential contractors.

The average work week slipped a tenth of an hour to 34.7 hours. The manufacturing work week shortened two-tenths of an hour to 40.2 hours. Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $30.40. F

An index tracking labor trends continue to increase, signaling job growth in the United States.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose 1.14 points to 109.84 in June. The index has increased 28.2 percent over the past year.

Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute, said the index suggests strong job growth will continue to summer even as the U.S. labor market remains tight. F