Trends

August 12-25, 2021 The Business Times News PAge 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Real estate sales slow s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020. Opinion But year-to-date activity in Mesa County remains well ahead of 2020 Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 129,1 in July, up 0.2. s Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs Real estate sales slowed in Mesa County in July, but overall activity so far this year remains well ahead of last year. Business People Index for Colorado, 67.3 for the third quarter, up 2.9. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, remains optimistic. “I still think it’s going to be a very good year.” Almanac Business Optimism Index Annette Miller, administrator coordinator 99.7 for July, down 2.8. at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, said n Foreclosures she expects neither a big decrease nor big increase in the market. “I don’t see any red t Foreclosure filings in flags that it’s going to change dramatically Mesa County, 2 in either direction.” July, down from 4 in July 2020. Miller said 595 real estate transactions worth a total of $242 million were reported t Foreclosure sales in in Mesa County in July. Compared to the Mesa County, 0 in same month last year, transactions slipped July, down from 2 in July 2020. 1.5 percent, but combined dollar volume rose 24.7 percent. n Indexes Miller said low inventories continue to s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 109.80 for hamper sales, but real estate activity typically slows in July given the holiday and summer July, up 0.84. vacations. s Conference Board Leading Eighteen transactions worth a combined $48.9 million Economic Index 115.1 for bolstered dollar volume in July, she said. The transactions June, up 0.7%. included the sale of the Peppermill Lofts apartments for more than t Institute for Supply Management $7 million, Liberty Center office building for nearly $6.3 million Purchasing Managers Index and a 72-unit apartment building for $5.5 million. for manufacturing, 59.5% for Through July, 3,657 transactions worth a total of more than July, down 1.1%. $1.3 billion were reported in 2021. Compared to the same span n Lodging last year, transactions increased 23.3 percent and dollar volume jumped 43.3 percent. The increases reflect in part the effects of the s Lodging tax collections in COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions in 2020. Grand Junction, $201,955 If the current pace of activity continues, 2021 would end with for June, up 202.5% from May 2020. n Real estate Small Business Optimism Index retreats

6,269 transactions worth a total of $2.2 billion, exceeding what ultimately was a record year in 2020. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential market, 365 transactions worth a total of more than $140.5 million were reported in July. Compared to the same month last year, transactions dropped 17.2 percent and dollar volume edged down three-tenths of a percent. Through the first seven months of 2021, 2,388 residential transactions worth a total of more than $862.7 million were reported. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 8.8 percent and dollar volume jumped 30.8 percent. Bray said the year-to-year decrease in closed transactions Robert Bray in July reflected some slowing in sales for that month and the previous two months. Low residential inventories continue to pose a challenge, he said. As of the end of July, there were 348 active listings. That’s a decrease of 19.3 percent from the same time last year. Low supplies and high demand continue to push prices upward. The median price of homes sold through the first seven months of 2021 increased 18 percent to $325,000. As for new construction, 72 building permits for single-family homes were issued in Mesa County in July, down from 79 for the same month last year. Through the first seven months of 2021, Annette Miller however, 585 permits were issued. That’s up 39.6 percent from the same span in 2020. Bray said residential activity could remain soft in August, but the overall market remains strong in Mesa County with dollar volume that will soon pass the $1 billion milestone. Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to decrease in Mesa County, Miller said 13 foreclosure filings and 13 completed sales were reported during the first seven months of 2021. During the same span in 2020, 73 filings and 21 sales were reported. The seven resales of foreclosed property during the first seven months of 2021 constituted a fraction of all transactions and the 10 percent threshold Miller considers indicative of a healthy market. F

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 595 in July, down 1.5% from July 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $242 million in July, up 24.7% from July 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.8 million for June, up 27% from May 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.47million for July, up 20.3 % from July 2020. n Unemployment

s Mesa County — 6.9% for June, up 0.9.

n Colorado — 6.2% for June, unchanged. t United States — 5.4% for July, down 0.5.

A measure of optimism among small business owners has retreated on less upbeat expectations for the economy, sales and earnings as well as concerns about labor availability. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.8 points to 99.7 in July. The decrease nearly erased a 2.9-point increase in June, but the index remains above its average reading of 98. “Small business owners are losing confidence in the strength of the economy and expect a slowdown in job creation,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “As owners look for qualified workers, they are also reporting that supply chain disruptions are having an impact on their businesses,” Dunkelberg said. “Ultimately, owners could sell more if they could acquire more supplies and inventories from their supply chains.”

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners.

For July, six of 10 components of the index declined, three advanced and one remained unchanged.

The proportion of those who responded to the survey upon which the July index was based who expect the economy to

improve over the next six months fell eight points from June. At a net negative 20 percent, more respondents indicated they expected worsening conditions. A net 26 percent reported plans to make capital outlays, up a point. A net 13 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down two points. The share of those who said they expect higher sales dropped 11 points to a net negative 4 percent. The proportion of those reporting higher earnings fell eight points. At a net negative 13 percent, more reported lower earnings. Among those reporting lower earnings, 32 percent blamed weaker sales and 31 percent higher material costs. Bill Dunkelberg A net 27 percent of respondents reported plans to increase employment, down a point from a record-high reading in June. But a record 49 percent reported unfilled job openings, up three points. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 26 percent cited labor quality and 9 percent cited labor costs. A net 38 percent of owners reported raising compensation, down a point from a record-level in June. A net 27 percent reported plans to increase compensation over the next three months, up a point to a record high. A net 6 percent reported plans to increase inventories, down five points. A net 12 percent said they consider they consider current inventories too low, up a point to a record high. F

The Business Times

august 12-25, 2021 U.S. payrolls swell as jobless rate drops Labor index rises

U.S. payrolls swelled and the unemployment rate retreated in July with hiring in the leisure and hospitality and education sectors accounting for more than half the job gains.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 943,000 and the jobless rate declined a half point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Estimated payroll gains for June and May were revised upward a total of 119,000 to 938,000 and 614,000, respectively.

Payrolls have grown 16.7 million since April 2020, but remain down 5.7 million from the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

For July, 8.7 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 3.4 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Another 4.5 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate rose a tenth of a point to 61.7 percent, still 1.6 points lower than February 2020.

Employment increased 380,000 in the leisure and hospitality sector, 253,000 of that in food services and drinking places. Still, employment in the sector remains 1.7 million below its February 2020 level.

Payrolls rose 221,000 in local government education and 40,000 in private education.

Employment also increased 60,000 in professional and business services, 50,000 in transportation and warehousing, 37,000 in health care and 27,000 in manufacturing.

The average workweek remained unchanged at 34.8 hours. The manufacturing workweek lengthened two-tenths of an hour to 40.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased another 11 cents to $30.54, the fourth consecutive month for gains. F

An index tracking labor trends continues to increase, signaling job growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose nearly a point to 109.8 in July for a fifth consective month of gains.

Labor recruiting and retention challenges — along with rapid wage growth — also are expected through the summer, said Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. Wage growth could lead to higher inflation, he said. F