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September 15-28, 2022 The Business Times News page 23 Trends
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors s New business filings in Colorado, 39,464 in the second quarter, up 0.5 percent from the second quarter of 2021. Opinion Phil Castle The Business Times n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 103.2 for August, up 7.9. t Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs Real estate activity continues to slow in Mesa County as higher interest rates and inflation affect sales. But Stewart Cruickshank also sees Business People Index for Colorado, 41.1 for the third quarter, down 12.8. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 91.8 for August, up 1.9. the shift as a return to more normal market conditions coming off a record-breaking pace in 2021. “We’re in third gear, not neutral,” said Cruickshank, sales manager at Bray & Co. Real Estate in Grand Junction. Annette Young, administrative coordinator Almanac n Foreclosures at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, said s Foreclosure filings in slowing could help build inventory, reduce Mesa County, 11 in price appreciation and make real estate more August, up from 6 in affordable. “It’s not all negative.” August 2021. Young said 396 real estate transactions s Foreclosure sales in worth a total of $196.1 million were reported in Mesa County, 11 in Mesa County in August. Compared to the same August, up from 0 in month last year, transactions fell 27.2 percent August 2021. and dollar volume declined 11.3 percent. n Indexes Large transactions bolstered dollar volume — 19 transactions accounted for a s Conference Board Employment combined $48.1 million. They included the Trends Index, 119.06 for sale of WoodSpring Suites for $15.3 million, the Village Fair August, up 0.86. Shopping Center for $4.1 million and commercial property along t Conference Board Leading Economic Index 117.1 for June, down 0.8. the Riverside Parkway for $3.9 million. Through the first eight months of 2022, 3,485 transactions worth a total of more than $1.5 billion were reported. Compared n Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 52.8% for August, unchanged from July. to the same span in 2021, transactions decreased 17 percent and dollar volume edged down nearly a half of a percent. For all of 2021, 6,193 transactions worth a total of $2.36 billion were reported, the highest level for dollar volume ever. Transactions n Lodging spiked at 7,198 in 2005. s Lodging tax collections in Young said higher interest rates on mortgages have slowed real Grand Junction, $580,705 estate activity, but so have higher prices for homes and inflation for July, up 20.3% that’s made gasoline, food and other products more expensive. from July 2021. According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential n Real estate market in Mesa County, 266 transactions worth a combined
Real estate activity slows
Mesa County returning to more normal conditions, managers say $119.2 million were reported in August. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 22.2 percent and dollar volume declined 9.3 percent. Through the first eight months of 2022, 2,332 transactions worth a total of nearly $998.2 million were reported. Compared to the same span in 2021, transactions decreased 15.5 percent and dollar volume slipped 1 percent. Cruickshank said the latest numbers are more reflective of activity before the COVID-19 pandemic and still constitute what he considers a robust market overall. Fewer sales have bolstered inventory. As of the end of August, there were 594 active residential listings in Mesa County. That’s S. Cruickshank up nearly 48.8 percent from a year ago, but still only about two months of supply at the current pace of sales. New homes construction lags. A total of 62 single family building permits were issued in Mesa County in August and 558 through the first eight months of 2022. That’s down 28.7 percent and 17 percent, respectively, from last year. Cruickshank said builders face uncertainty as well as material and labor shortages. Home prices continue to climb. The median price of homes sold during the first eight months of 2022 rose 18.5 percent to $385,000 compared to the same span in 2021. Annette Young What was a bidding frenzy for some homes has abated, Cruickshank said. While 98.7 percent of homes sold in August received list price, that’s down from nearly 100.5 percent for the same month last year Cruickshank said he expects the pace of appreciation to slow, but demand to persist. Grand Junction remains an attractive place to live, he said, with comparatively lower housing prices, taxes and cost of living. “I’m excited about our future in real estate.” Meanwhile, property foreclosure filings continue to increase in Mesa County, Young said. Through the first eight months of 2022, 168 filings were recorded. That’s up from just 19 for the same span in 2021. The increase in foreclosure sales hasn’t been as pronounced, she said, with 25 sales through the first eight months of 2022. That’s up from 13 in the same span last year. Many filings are withdrawn before the completion of the foreclosure process. F
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 396 in August, down 27.2% from August 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $196.1 million in July, down 11.3% from August 2021. n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $7.1 million for July, up 9.6% from August 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.8 million for July, up 6.3% from July 2021. n Unemployment
n Mesa County — 3.7% for July, unchanged.
t Colorado — 3.3% for July, down 0.1. s United States — 3.7% for August, up 0.2.
Business index rebounds, but concerns persist
A measure of optimism among small business owners has rebounded on more upbeat expectations, but concerns persist over inflation and labor shortages.
The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.9 points in August. But at 91.8, the latest reading remained below the 48-year average of 98 for an eighth straight month.
“Owners are managing the rising costs of utilities, fuel, labor, supplies, materials, rent and inventory to protect their earnings. The worker shortage is impacting small business productivity as owners raise compensation to attract better workers,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB.
The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. For August, seven of 10 components of the index increased, two decreased and one remained unchanged.
The proportion of NFIB members who responded to the survey upon which the August index was based who expect the economy to improve over the next six months rose 10 points from July to the highest level since February. But at a net negative
42 percent, more of those who responded still anticipated worsening conditions. A net 25 percent of respondents reported plans for capital outlays, up three points from a month ago. A net 5 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, up a point. The share of those who expect increased sales also rose 10 points, but was at a net negative 19 percent. Expectations for increased profits fell, however — seven points to a net negative 33 percent. Among those reporting lower profits, 36 percent blamed rising material costs and 23 percent cited weaker sales. The proportion of respondents who said they plan to increase Bill Dunkelberg staffing rose a point to a net 21 percent. A net 49 percent reported unfilled job openings, unchanged from a month ago. Asked to identify their most important problem, 29 percent cited inflation — down eight points from July and the largest proportion since the fourth quarter of 1979. Another 26 percent cited quality of labor. A net 53 percent of those who responded reported raising average selling prices, down three points. Price hikes were most frequent in the construction, retail, transportation and manufacturing sectors. A net 46 percent reported raising compensation. F
U.S. payrolls, jobless rate both increase for August
Both payrolls and the number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased in the United States in August.
Nonfarm payrolls grew 315,000 and the unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a point to 3.7 percent, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Payroll gains for the previous two months were revised downward a total of 107,000 to 526,000 for July and 293,000 for June.
With an increase of 5.8 million over the past year, total nonfarm employment now exceeds the level in February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.
For August, 6 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work, up 344,000 from July. Of those, 1.1 million had been out of work 27 weeks or longer. Another 4.1 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were cut or they were unable to find full-time positions.
The labor participation rate — the portion of the population working or looking for work — rose three-tenth of a point to 62.4 percent. That remains below the 63.4 percent level in February 2020.
Payroll gains for August were spread out among industry sectors.
Professional and business services added 68,000 jobs. Employment increased 48,000 in health care, 44,000 in retail trades, 31,000 in leisure and hospitality and 22,000 in manufacturing.
The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened a tenth of an hour to 34.5 hours. The average manufacturing work week was little changed at 40.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls increased 10 cents to $32.36. Over the past year, hourly earnings have increased 5.2 percent.
Labor index rises
An index tracking labor trends in the Unites States has rebounded, but the pace of job growth is still expected to slow.
The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose 0.86 points to 119.20 in August.
“But with the heandwinds in the rest of the economy already evident, expect job growth to decelerate for the remainder of the year,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at the New York-based think tank. F
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A measure of consumer confidence has rebounded on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions, but concerns about inflation and recession persist. “August’s improvement in confidence may help support spending, but inflation and additional (interest) rate hikes still pose risks to economic growth in the short-term,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The New York-based think tank reported its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose 7.9 points between July and August to 103.2. The gain followed three consecutive months of declines. Components of the CCI tracking present conditions and expectations both increased.
Lynn Franco The Conference Board bases the CCI on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
More optimistic assessments of current conditions pushed the present situation component of the index up 5.7 points to 145.4, the first gain since March.
The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the August index was based who described business conditions as “good” rose 2.9 points to 19.2 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” fell 1 point to 23.2 percent.
The proportion of those who said jobs were “plentiful” fell 1.2 points to 48 percent. But the share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” also fell — a point to 11.4 percent.
More upbeat outlooks pushed the expectations component of the index up 9.5 points to 75.1. While the component rebounded from a nine-year low in July, the reading remains below 80 and suggests the risk of recession.
The share of those who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose 3.8 points to 17.5 percent. The proportion of those anticipating worsening conditions fell nine-tenths of a point to 22.3 percent.
The share of respondents expecting more jobs to become available rose 2.3 points to 17.4 percent. The proportion of those anticipating fewer jobs fell 1.8 points to 19.3 percent.
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THE BUSINESS TIMESNews 2 Trends Contributors Opinion Business BriefsBusiness People Almanac THEBUSINESSTIMES.COM THE DEFINITIVE SOURCE FOR GRAND JUNCTION BUSINESS NEWS SINCE 1994 AUGUST 25-SEPTEMBER 14, 2022 VOLUME 29, ISSUE 16 4 In this issuen Mixed bag The latest report of economic indicators for Colorado details a decline in business filings, but an increase in employment.n Mobility hubs 5 A $24.2 million federal grant will fund construction of mobility hubs in Grand Junction, Rifle and Glenwood Springs. A federal grant could provide more than $100 million over the next five years to help Colorado firms access financing.n Holding steadyThe jobless rate held steady in Mesa County in July with increases in both payrolls and the unemployed.n Taxing trends Tax collections, a measure of sales activity, continue to climb on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County.n Cultured effortsOrganizations that say their cultures are like a family might say instead their cultures are like a community.
Almanac Business Briefs Business People Contributors News Opinion Trends 26 24 26 17-21 2-14 22 15-16
n Business funding
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n Departments
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Regional watchdog n Executive director relishes new role with government group. Page 2 Tiffany Pehl serves as executive director of the Associated Governments of Northwest Colorado. The organization advocates on behalf of county and municipal governments in the region.
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