Trends

September 29-OctOber 12, 2022 The Business Times News page 23 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors s New business filings in Colorado, 39,464 in the second quarter, up 0.5 percent from the second quarter of 2021. Opinion Phil Castle The Business Times The monthly unemployment rate has retreated in Mesa Business Briefs Business People n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 108 for September, up 4.4. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 41.1 for the third quarter, down 12.8. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 91.8 for August, up 1.9. County with an increase in payrolls and decrease in the ranks of the unemployed. The trend is expected to continue even as summer hiring gives way to preparations for the upcoming holiday shopping season, said Celina Kirnberger, employment services supervisor at the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. “It’s kind of what we expected.” The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.6 percent in August, according Almanac n Foreclosures to the latest estimates from the Colorado s Foreclosure filings in Department of Labor and Employment. Mesa County, 11 in That’s a decline of three-tenths of a point after August, up from 6 in the July rate was revised upward to 3.9 percent. At this time last August 2021. year, the rate was higher at 5.4 percent. s Foreclosure sales in Between July and August, Mesa County payrolls increased Mesa County, 11 in 1,061 to 75,944. The number of people counted among those August, up from 0 in unsuccessfully looking for work decreased 217 to 2,815. The August 2021. labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, grew n Indexes 844 to 78,759. Over the past year, payrolls increased 2,710 — or about s Conference Board Employment 3.7 percent. The ranks of the unemployed decreased 1,395. The Trends Index, 119.06 for August, up 0.86. t Conference Board Leading Economic Index 116.2 for August, down 0.3%. n Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 52.8% for August, unchanged from July. labor force grew 1,315. Kirnberger said labor demand remains strong across most industry sectors and particularly in the health care sector. “Health care is always the big need.” The number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center has declined on a year-over-basis. But the number of job openings hasn’t changed as dramatically, she said. For August, 850 job orders were posted. That’s down 18.1 percent from the n Lodging 1,038 orders posted for the same month s Lodging tax collections in last year. Through the first eight months Grand Junction, $441,213 of 2022, 5,819 orders were posted. That’s for August, up 2.5% down 23.4 percent from the 7,597 orders from August 2021. posted for the same span in 2021. n Real estate Year-to-date job openings held steady, she said, with 1,453 openings in 2022 and t Real estate transactions in 1,468 openings in 2021. Mesa County, 396 in August, down 27.2% from August 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $196.1 million in July, down 11.3% from August 2021. n Sales s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.3 million for August, up 6.7% from August 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.5 million for August, up 7% from August 2021. n Unemployment t Mesa County — 3.6% for August, down 0.3. s Colorado — 3.4% for August, up 0.1. s United States — 3.7% for August, up 0.2. Kirnberger said she expects the monthly jobless rate to continue to trend downward through the end of the year before what’s traditionally a seasonal spike after the holidays. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates also decreased in neighboring Western Colorado counties between July and August — a tenth of a point to 3.5 percent in Delta County and 2.8 percent in Garfield County and two-tenths of a point to 3.1 percent in Montrose County and 4.1 percent in Rio Blanco County. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate edged up a tenth of a point to 3.4 percent. Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,400 between July and August. Over the past year, Colorado payrolls grew 108,300 with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utility sectors. Over the past 28 months, payrolls increased 429,900, more than offsetting the 374,500 jobs lost in March and April 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. Over the past year, the average workweek for Colorado employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened 1.2 hours to 33.2 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $2.05 to $34.17. F A measure of consumer confidence has increased for a second straight month on more upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions even as concerns about recession and inflation persist. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose 4.4 points between August and September. With gains in each of the last two months, the index has climbed to 108. Components of the index tracking current conditions and expectations both increased for September. “Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022, but inflation and interest rate hikes remain strong headwinds to growth in the short term,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The New York-based think tank bases the index on the results of household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. More optimistic assessments of current conditions pushed the

Unemployment rate retreats

Celina Kirnberger

AREA JOBLESS RATES Aug. July

t Delta County 3.5 3.6 t Garfield County 2.8 2.9 t Mesa County 3.6 3.9 t Montrose County 3.1 3.3 t Rio Blanco County 4.1 4.3

Confidence index up a second straight month

present situation component of the index up 4.3 points to 149.6. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the September index was based who described business conditions as “good” rose 1.8 points to 20.8 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” fell 1.4 points to 21.2 percent. The proportion of respondents who said jobs were “plentiful” rose 1.8 points to 49.4 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” edged down two-tenths of a point to 11.4 percent. More upbeat outlooks pushed the expectations component of the index up 4.5 points to 80.3. The share of those who expected business conditions to improve over the next six month rose two points to 19.3 percent. Lynn Franco The proportion of those who anticipated worsening conditions fell seven-tenths of a point to 21 percent. The share of those who expected more jobs to become available in coming months rose four-tenths of a point to 17.5 percent. The proportion of those who believed fewer jobs will be available fell 1.9 points to 17.7 percent. While 18.4 percent of respondents expected their incomes to increase, 14.3 percent anticipated lower incomes. F

Jobfest Job Fair set for Oct. 6

The Mesa County Workforce Center has scheduled its annual Jobfest Job Fair for Oct. 6.

The event is set for 3 to 6 p.m. at the center, located at 512 29 1/2 Road in Grand Junction. Veterans will receive priority access from 3 to 3:30.

Celina Kirnberger, employment services supervisor at the center, said she expects more than 50 employers to participate, each of them with immediate job openings to fill.

The job fair is open at no charge to employers and those looking for jobs. Employers must register by Sept. 30.

To register or obtain more information about the job fair, call 248-7560, send an email to jobservice@mesacounty.us or visit the website at https://mcwfc.us. F

The Business Times

SePtember 29-OctOber 12, 2022 Six months of index declines signaling risk of recession

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has declined for a sixth straight month, signaling slowing and the risk of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell three-tenths of a percent to 116.2 in August. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

The Leading Economic Index dropped 2.7 percent between February and August, reversing a 1.7 percent gain over the six months before that. For August, five of 10 components of the index advanced. Ataman Ozyildirim, the senior director of economics at the Conference Board, said only two components boosted the Leading Economic Index over the past six months — the yield Ataman Ozyildirim spread and a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits.

“Labor market strength is expected to continue moderating in the months ahead,” Ozyildirim said. “Indeed, the average workweek in manufacturing contracted in four of the last six months — a notable sign as firms reduce hours before reducing their work forces.”

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services, decreased in the United States at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter and ninetenths of a percent in the second quarter — two quarters of consecutive declines in GDP that by one definition constitutes a recession.

The Conference Board, a think tank based in New York, projected a recession in coming quarters, Ozyildirim said. “Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the U.S. economy and likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures.”

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, edged up a tenth of a percent to 108.7 in August. The index advanced six-tenths of a percent between February and August, slower than the 1.5 percent gain over the previous six-month span.

For August, three of four components of the index advanced

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past conditions, rose seventenths of a percent to 115.4 in August. The index has increased 4.4 percent over the past six months, a faster pace than the 2.5 percent gain in the six-month period before that.

For August, three of seven components of the index advanced. F