Trends

OctOber 27-NOvember 9, 2022 The Business Times News Page 23 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors s New business filings in Colorado, 39,464 in the second quarter, up 0.5 percent from the second quarter of 2021. Opinion Sales tax collections — a key measure of retail activity — continue to trend upward in Grand Junction and Mesa County. n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 102.5 for October, down 5.3. t Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefs The City of Grand Junction reported a 13.3 percent increase in sales tax collections in September compared to the same month a year ago. Mesa County reported an 18.7 percent year-over-year increase with gains in seven of eight retail categories. September reports reflect August sales. Business People Index for Colorado, 39.8 for the fourth quarter, down 1.3. s National Federation of Independent Business Small The City of Grand Junction collected more than $5.4 million in sales taxes in September. That’s an increase of nearly $636,000 over what was collected a year ago. The city also collected more than $908,000 as its share of sales Almanac Business Optimism Index tax Mesa County collects and distributes back to municipalities — 92.1 for September, up 0.3. a 7.3 percent gain. n Foreclosures In addition, the city collected more than $124,000 in use taxes, a smaller and more volatile source of revenue. That was a s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 20 in September, up from 2 in September 2021. s Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 14 in September, up from 2 in September 2021. 16.2 percent decline. September sales and use tax revenues for the city have increased in each of the last five years. Through the first three quarters of 2022, the city collected more than $47.7 million in sales tax. That’s an increase of more than $4.5 million and 10.5 percent compared to the same span in 2021. The city collected nearly $7.9 million in its share of sales tax n Indexes from the county and almost $1.2 million in use taxes. s Conference Board Employment Mesa County collected nearly $4.5 million in sales taxes Trends Index, 120.17 for in September, an increase of more than $705,000 over the same September, up 1.69. month last year. t Conference Board Leading The county also collected almost $414,000 in use taxes — Economic Index 115.9 for nearly all of those assessed on automobiles purchased outside the September, down 0.4%. county, but used in the county. That’s a decrease of more than t Institute for Supply Management $58,000 and 12.4 percent from the same month last year. Purchasing Managers Index County collections on retail sales topped $2.6 million in for manufacturing, 50.9% for September, an increase of 18.8 percent over the same month last September, down 1.9%. year. Collections increased on a year-over-year basis for every n Lodging retail category except health and personal care products, which declined 12.2 percent. Collections increased 30.7 percent on s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $451,679 for September, up 27.8% from September 2021.

Tax collections trend upward

Both Grand Junction and Mesa County report year-over-year gains Lodging tax collections rise Lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, continue to increase in Grand Junction. The City of Grand Junction collected $451,679 in lodging taxes in September, an increase of 27.8 percent over the same month last year. September collections reflect August hotel and motel stays. Through the first three quarters of 2022, the city collected nearly $3.5 million in lodging taxes. That’s an increase of about 33 percent over the first three quarters of 2021. F autos and 13.3 percent on home improvements. Collections also increased on food, beverages and gasoline although that could reflect higher prices resulting from inflation. County sales tax collections also increased in September for most other industries with a 9.8 percent year-over-year gain in hotel stays and restaurant meals, an 18.5 percent increase in manufacturing and 26.2 percent increase in telecommunications. Through the first three quarters of 2022, Mesa County collected $36.4 million in sales taxes. That’s an increase of more than $3.6 million and 11.1 percent from the same span in 2021. Use tax collections increased 3.3 percent to nearly $3.3 million. County tax collections on retail sales during the first three quarters of 2022 totaled nearly $22 million, an increase of more than $1.6 million and 7.9 percent over the same span in 2021. Collections increased for all but one category with a 2.3 percent decrease on health and personal care items. Sales tax collections also increased in all but one industry category, including a 9 percent increase in the hotel and restaurant sector, a 15.5 percent increase in manufacturing and a 23.8 percent increase in telecommunications. F

Consumer Confidence Index retreats

n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 371 in September, down 27.2% from September 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $164.9 million in September, down 19.6% from a year ago. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.5 million for September, up 11.6% from September 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.9 million for September, up 15.3% from September 2021. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 3.4% for September, down 0.2.

A measure of consumer confidence has seesawed back down on less upbeat assessments of business and labor conditions that could signal an impending recession.

The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 5.3 points to 102.5 in October. The loss followed gains in September and August. Components of the index tracking current conditions and expectations both declined for October.

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said the present situation component of the index fell sharply, suggesting slowing economic growth for the fourth quarter.

Consumers’ short-term outlook remains “dismal,” Franco said. “The expectations index is still lingering below a ready of 80 — a level associated with recession — suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.”

Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles and appliances increased, she said. But so did concerns about inflation, driven by rising gasoline and food prices.

“Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting, which would reduce retailers’ profit margins,” Franco said.

Lynn Franco

The New York-based think tank bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Less optimistic assessments of current conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index 11.3 points to 138.9.

The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the October index was based who described business conditions as “good” fell 3.2 points to 17.5 percent. The share of those who said conditions were “bad” rose 3.1 points to 24 percent.

The proportion of respondents who said jobs were “plentiful” fell four points to 45.2 percent. The share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” rose 1.6 points to 12.7 percent.

Less upbeat outlooks pulled down the expectations component of the index 1.4 points to 78.1.

The share of those who expected business conditions to improve over the next six months rose six-tenths of a point to 19.2 percent. But the proportion of those anticipating worsening conditions increased more — 1.4 points to 23.3 percent.

The share of those who expected more jobs to become available in coming months rose 2.4 points to 19.8 percent. The proportion of those who believed fewer jobs rose more — three points to 20.8 percent.

While 18.9 percent of respondents expected their incomes to increase, 15.1 percent anticipated lower incomes. F

The Business Times

OctOber 27-NOvember 9, 2022

Index forecasts recession

A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has decreased, continuing a trend that portends recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined four-tenths of a percent to 115.9 in September. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased. The downward trajectory of the Leading Economic Index suggests a recession is likely before the end of the year, said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics Ataman Ozyilidirim at the Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI feel deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.”

The LEI declined 2.8 percent between March and September, more than offsetting a 1.4 percent gain over the previous six months.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the United States, will increase 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2022. But then slow further in the first half of 2023, the Conference Board projected.

GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter and six-tenths of a percent in the second quarter.

For September, five of 10 components of the LEI advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, interest rate spread and new orders for consumer goods. A decline in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Five components retreated: consumer expectations for business conditions, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for capital goods and the Standard and Poor’s 500 index of stock prices.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose two-tenths of a percent to 108.9 in September. All four of the indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and manufacturing and trade sales.

The CEI increased nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased six-tenths of a percent to 116.2 in September. Five of seven components advanced, including the average prime rate charged by banks, commercial and industrial financing, inventories and the price of services. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment benefits also boosted the index. Consumer credit and the cost of labor held steady. F