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OctOber 28-NOvember 10, 2021 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends Contributors Opinion Business Briefs

Business People Almanac

Consumer Confidence Index rebounds

A measure of consumer confidence has rebounded on more upbeat expectations for business and labor conditions as well as plans to make big purchases and take vacations. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index rose four points to 113.8 in October. The gain reversed a threemonth decline. Components of the index tracking assessments of current conditions as well as short-term expectations both increased. Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said concerns about the effects of the Delta variant of COVID-19 have eased. While concerns over inflation rose to a 13-year high, the effect on confidence was muted. “The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles and major appliances all increased in October — a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through the final months of 2021,” Franco said. “Likewise, nearly half of respondents said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months — the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.” The business research and membership group bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Economists monitor the index because consumer spending

Unemployment rate retreats

Mesa County jobless rate falls to lowest level since onset of pandemic

Phil Castle

The Business Times

With drops in each of the last three months, the unemployment rate has retreated in Mesa County to the lowest level since before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It is a really good sign for us,” said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. While a labor shortage persists, employers willing to offer more flexibility and higher wages have fared better in filling openings, Englehart said. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate fell nine-tenths of a point to 4.8 percent in Mesa County in September, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. That’s the lowest level since the rate stood at 4.1 percent in February 2020. At this time last year, the rate stood at 6.4 percent.

For September 2021, Mesa County payrolls increased 1,136 to 73,463. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work decreased 630 to 3,720. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, grew 506 to 77,183.

Compared to a year ago, payrolls increased 1,460. The ranks of the unemployed decreased 1,235. The labor force grew 225.

An end to a federal stipend added to unemployment benefits motivated some people to rejoin the work force. But the latest numbers also reflect other factors, Englehart said. “I think it’s a combination of things.”

What’s been a surge in job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce center has leveled off as employers fill more of those openings, he said. “That’s not a bad thing.”

Employers have responded to demands for more flexibility accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. More upbeat assessments of current conditions pushed up the present situation component of the index 3.1 points to 147.4. The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the October index was based who described business conditions as “good” fell a half point to 18.6 percent. But the share of those who called conditions “bad” also fell — four-tenths of a point to 24.9 percent. The proportion of those who said jobs are “plentiful” dropped nine-tenths of a point to 55.6 percent. But the share of those who said jobs are “hard to get” fell 2.4 points to 10.6 percent. More optimistic outlooks pushed up the expectations component of the index 4.6 points to 91.3. The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over in six months increased 2.6 points to 24.3 percent. The proportion of those who said they anticipate worsening conditions also rose — 3.5 points to 21.1 percent. The share of consumers who expect more jobs to become available in coming months rose 4.1 points to 25.4 percent. The proportion of those forecasting fewer jobs decreased 1.6 points to 18.3 percent. While 18.7 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase — up 1.8 points from September — another 11.3 percent said they anticipated lower earnings. That’s down a tenth of a point. F

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE

n Business filings s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020. AREA JOBLESS RATES and the option to work from home as well offered higher wages, he said. n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 in October, up 4.0. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t Delta County t Garfield County t Mesa County t Montrose County t Rio Blanco County Sept. 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.2 Aug. 5.0 4.6 5.7 5.1 5.2 For September, 1,020 job orders were posted, Englehart said. That’s the lowest number since March. Through the first three quarters of 2021, 8,617 orders were posted. That’s nearly double the orders posted for the same span last year and more than the 6,646 orders posted for all of 2020. t National Federation of Englehart said he expects strong hiring Independent Business Small to continue through the fourth quarter of 2021 to fill not only fill Business Optimism Index 99.1 for September, down 1.0. existing openings, but also seasonal positions for the holidays. The recent openings of Dillards and Dick’s Sporting Goods at n Foreclosures Mesa Mall in Grand Junction and related hiring will bolster labor t Foreclosure filings in numbers. Mesa County, 2 in But the labor market also could be affected by employees who September, down from 8 in quit their jobs rather than comply with COVID-19 vaccination September 2020. Curtis Englehart mandates, he said. t Foreclosure sales in Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also declined in Mesa County, 2 in neighboring Western Colorado counties in September: six-tenths September, down from 3 in of a point to 4 percent in Garfield County, nine-tenths of a point to September 2020. 4.1 percent in Delta County and 4.2 percent in Montrose County n Indexes and a point to 4.2 percent in Rio Blanco County. The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell three-tenths t Conference Board Employment of a point to 5.6 percent even as nonfarm payrolls increased 5,100 Trends Index, 110.35 for between August and September. September, down 0.33. Over the past year, payrolls have increased 102,100 with s Conference Board Leading the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and Economic Index 117.5 for September, up 0.2%. business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sector. Manufacturing and construction payrolls declined. s Institute for Supply Management Over the past 17 months, Colorado has regained 297,900 of Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 61.1% for September, up 1.2%. the 375,800 jobs lost between February and April 2020 because of the pandemic and related restrictions. The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm n Lodging payrolls has lengthened over the past year six-tenths of an hour s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $211,635 to 33.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.44 to $32.46. F for August, up 75.9% from August 2020. n Real estate t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 510 in September, down 9.9% from September 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $205 million in September, up 14.5% from September 2020. n Sales s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.9 million for August, up 18.2% from Lynn Franco August 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.23 million for September, up 16.9% from September 2020. n Unemployment t Mesa County — 4.8% for September, down 0.9. t Colorado — 5.6% for September, down 0.3. t United States — 4.8% for September, down 0.4.

The Business Times

OctOber 28-NOvember 10, 2021

Leading index signals moderate growth ahead

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, but at slower pace that reflects mounting concerns over the pandemic, inflation and supply chains.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased two-tenths of a percent to 117.5 in September. A separate measure of past performance also increased, while a measure of Ataman Ozyildirimcurrent conditions remained unchanged.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said the latest results suggest the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory. “The delta variant, rising inflation fears and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the U.S. economy.”

Still, the Conference Board forecasts 5.7 percent growth year-over-year in gross domestic product in 2021 and 3.8 percent growth in 2022, Ozyildirim said

The Leading Economic Index has increased 5.4 percent over the past six months, a faster pace than the 3.7 percent gain over the six months before that.

By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.7 pecent for the second quarter and 6.3 percent for the first quarter.

For September, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index advanced, including interest rate spread, a leading credit index, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and a new orders index. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions and strock prices retreated.

The Coincident Economic Index held steady at 105.8. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past six months.

For September, three of four indicators advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to to 106.5. The index has increased eight-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For September, four of seven components advanced, including commercial and industrial financing, inventories and labor costs. A decline in the average duration of unemployment also pushed up the index. Consumer credit and the cost of services retreated. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged. F