Trends

November 10-23, 2022 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors s New business filings in Colorado, 39,464 in the second quarter, up 0.5 percent from the second quarter of 2021. Opinion Phil Castle Business Times Business Briefs Business People n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 102.5 for October, down 5.3. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 39.8 for the fourth quarter, down 1.3. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Real estate activity continues to slow in Mesa County even as interest rates rise and uncertainty mounts over a possible recession and the aftermath of a midterm election. Annette Young, the administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. who’s long tracked the market, said local trends Almanac Business Optimism Index are similar to what’s happening elsewhere. 91.3 for October, down 0.8. “I think it’s kind of expected when you see n Foreclosures what’s going on at a national level.” Although the number of transactions and s Foreclosure filings in combined dollar volume in Mesa County have Mesa County, 20 in dropped compared to a record breaking 2021, October, up from 1 in the market also shows some signs of resiliency, October 2021. said Robert Bray, chief executive officer of t Foreclosure sales in Bray & Co. Real Estate in Grand Junction. Mesa County, 2 in “The strength of the market is still surprising.” October, down from 3 in Young said 339 transactions worth a October 2021. total of $144.3 million were reported in n Indexes Mesa County in October. Compared to the t Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 119.57 for October, down 1.16. same month last year, transactions decreased 29.4 percent and dollar volume dropped 29.3 percent. While nine large transactions worth a collective $24.5 million bolstered dollar t Conference Board Leading volume in October 2022, 18 transactions accounted for a total of Economic Index 115.9 for $50 million a year ago. September, down 0.4%. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 4,195 transactions t Institute for Supply Management worth a total of nearly $1.83 billion were reported. Compared to Purchasing Managers Index the same span in 2021, transactions decreased 19.2 percent and for manufacturing, 50.2% for dollar volume fell 5.5 percent. October, down 0.7%. Young and Bray said the trends reflect the rising interest n Lodging rates on mortgages that have followed government efforts to curb inflation. Bray said the “trifecta” of factors affecting real estate s Lodging tax collections in activity also includes expectations of recession and the uncertainty Grand Junction, $451,679 that comes with an election. for September, up 27.8% from September 2021. n Real estate

Real estate sales slow

But Mesa County market still showing signs of “surprising” strength According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential market in Mesa County, 249 transactions worth a total of more than $99.5 million were reported in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 21 percent and dollar volume declined 13.6 percent. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 2,883 residential transactions worth a total of nearly $1.23 billion were reported. Compared to the same span in 2021, transactions fell 16.8 percent and dollar volume decreased 2.8 percent. The good news, Bray said, is the slower pace of sales has bolstered inventory and in turn selection for buyers. At of the end of October, there were 602 active listings in Mesa County. That’s Annette Young up 53.6 percent from the 392 listings a year ago. New home construction continues to lag behind last year, however, as higher interest rates and the costs of labor and materials slow building, he said. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 645 building permits for single-family homes were issued in Mesa County. That’s down 18.7 percent from the same span in 2021. Despite the slowdown in sales, home prices continue to rise. The median price of homes sold through the first 10 months of 2022 rose 18 percent on a year-over-year basis to $385,900. It’s a seller’s market, Bray said, with more than 98 percent of Robert Bray homes sold receiving list price. Looking ahead, Bray said he expects real estate activity to continue to trend down and end the year below 2021 levels. Prices could continue to rise, but at a slower pace. But the downturn is different than past shifts, he said. There’s still a shortage of housing and the labor market remains strong. Property foreclosure activity continues to increase in Mesa County, Young said. Through the first 10 months of 2022, 208 foreclosure filings and 41 sales were reported. That contrasts with 22 filings and 18 sales for the same period in 2021. Foreclosure activity has increased in part because forbearance measures are no longer in place. But activity hasn’t yet reached a worrisome level, she said. F

Small Business Optimism Index retreats

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 339 in October, down 29.4% from October 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $144.3 million in October, down 29.3% from October 2021 n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.5 million for September, up 11.6% from September 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.9 million for September, up 15.3% from September 2021. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 3.4% for September, down 0.2.

n Colorado — 3.4% for September, unchanged. s United States — 3.7% for October, up 0.2.

A measure of optimism among small business owners has retreated on less upbeat expectations.

“Owners continue to show a dismal view about future sales growth and business conditions, but are still looking to hire new workers,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business.

“Inflation, supply chain disruptions and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services,” Dunkelberg said.

The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell eight-tenths of a point to 91.3 between September and October. The index has remained below its 49-year average of 98 for 10 consecutive months.

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners.

For October, seven of 10 components of the index decreased, two increased and one remained unchanged.

The portion of NFIB members responding to the survey upon which the October index was based who expect the economy to improve fell another two points. At a net negative 46 percent, more members anticipate worsening conditions.

A net 23 percent of survey respondents reported plans for capital outlays, down a point from September. A net 5 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, also down a point. The share of those who expect increased sales fell three points. At a net negative 13 percent, more predicted decreased sales. Expectations for profits rose a point, but only to a net negative 30 percent. Among those reporting lower profits, 34 percent cited higher materials costs, 22 percent blamed weaker sales and 12 percent pointed to higher labor costs. A net 2 percent of respondents planned to increase inventories, up two points. A net 0 percent reported current inventories were too Bill Dunkelberg low, down a point. A net 20 percent reported plans to increase employment, down three points. A net 46 percent reported unfilled job openings, unchanged from September. Asked to identify their single most important problem, 33 percent cited inflation, up three points from September. Another 23 percent the quality of labor and 12 percent taxes. A net 50 percent of respondents reported raising average selling prices, down a point. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail, wholesale and construction sectors. A net 44 percent reported raising compensation, down a point. A net 32 percent said they expect to raise compensation in the next three months, up nine points to the highest level in a year. F

The Business Times U.S. payrolls grow, but at slower pace

Payrolls continues to increase in the United States, but at the slowest pace in nearly two years.

Nonfarm payrolls grew 261,000 in October as the national unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a point to 3.7 percent, according to the latest estimates from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The October increase was the smallest monthly job gain since December 2020.

The payroll gain for September was revised upward 52,000 to 315,000. The gain for August was revised downward 23,000 to 292,000.

With the latest numbers, payrolls have increased an average of 407,000 a month in 2022.

For October, 6.1 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 1.2 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer. Another 3.7 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate edged down a tenth of a point to 62.2 percent, still below the rate before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.

Payroll gains for October were spread out among industry sectors. Employment increased 53,000 in health care, 43,000 in professional and technical services, 35,000 in leisure and hospitality and 32,000 in manufacturing.

The average work week remained unchanged at 34.5 hours for a fifth consecutive month. The average manufacturing work week edged up a tenth of an hour to 40.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $32.58. Hourly earnings have increased 4.7 percent over the past year. F November 10-23, 2022 Labor index falls

A monthly index tracking labor trends in the United States signals continued job growth, but at a slowing pace.

The Conference Board Reported its Employment Trends Index fell 1.16 points to 119.57 in October.

Frank Steemers, senior economist at the Conference Board, said job growth likely will continue over the next months. But tightening monetary policy imposed by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation is expected to slow the pace of hiring by early 2023. F