Trends

November 24-December 7, 2022 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors s New business filings in Colorado, 43,657 in the third quarter, up 14.5 percent from the third quarter of 2021. OpinionPhil Castle Business Times Business Briefs Business People n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 102.5 for October, down 5.3. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 39.8 for the fourth quarter, down 1.3. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 91.3 for October, down 0.8. The unemployment rate seesawed back up in Mesa County even as payrolls and the overall labor force declined between September and October. But the latest jobless rate remains below this time last year. And there are other indications employers enjoy more success in filling openings, said Lindsay Bullock, director of the Mesa County Almanac n Foreclosures Workforce Center in Grand Junction. “I think s Foreclosure filings in we’re moving in the right direction.” Mesa County, 20 in The seasonally unadjusted unemployment October, up from 1 in rate rose four-tenths of a point to 3.8 percent in October 2021. October, according to the latest estimates from t Foreclosure sales in the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. The increase Mesa County, 2 in follows two months of decreases. At this time last year, the rate October, down from 3 in stood at 4.5 percent. October 2021. Between September and October, Mesa County payrolls n Indexes decreased 842 to 75,947. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work increased 254 to 2,974. t Conference Board Employment The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, Trends Index, 119.57 for October, down 1.16. declined 588 to 78,921. Over the past year, though, payrolls swelled 1,378 or 1.8 percent. t Conference Board Leading Economic Index 114.9 for October, down 0.8%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 50.2% for October, down 0.7%. The ranks of the unemployed fell 577. The labor force grew 801. Bullock said the number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center has declined from last year. But that’s an indication employers are filling more openings. For October, 693 job orders were posted, a drop of almost 35.2 percent from the same month a year ago. Through the first 10 n Lodging months of 2022, 8,134 orders were posted. That’s down 16 percent from the same span in 2021. t Lodging tax collections in Bullock said job vacancies persist, however, especially in the Grand Junction, $488,019 health care sector. But retailers gearing up for the holiday shopping for October, down 3.84% season have fared better this year with hiring. from October 2021. In other industry sectors, job applicants are looking for

Unemployment rate rises

Latest Mesa County labor estimates better than last year, however AREA JOBLESS RATES flexibility that allows them to work from home at least part of the time, she said. s Delta County s Garfield County s Mesa County s Montrose County s Rio Blanco County Oct. Sept. 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.8 3.6 Bullock said she expects labor conditions to remain about the same in Mesa County through the end of the year. The jobless rate typically spikes in January with post-holiday layoffs and the effects of winter weather on outdoor work. Seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also increased in neighboring Western Colorado counties between September and October — up two-tenths of a point to 3.2 percent in Montrose County and 3.8 percent in Rio Blanco County, up three-tenths to 3.6 percent in Delta County and up four-tenths to 3.2 percent in Garfield County. Elsewhere in Colorado, seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates ranged from 1.7 percent in Baca County in the southeast

Lindsay Bullock corner of the state to 7.3 percent in Huerfano County in the southcentral part of the state. Among metropolitan areas, unemployment rates ranged from 2.8 percent in Boulder to 5.5 percent in Pueblo The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose two-tenths of a point to 3.6 percent. According to the latest results of statewide household surveys, the Colorado labor force increased 1,900 between September and October even as the ranks of those looking for work increased 6,800. According to the results of business surveys, nonfarm payrolls grew 17,700. Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased 116,200 with the biggest gains in the professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and educational and health services sectors. Payrolls declined 1,400 in financial activities. Over the past 30 months, Colorado has added 455,700 nonfarm payroll jobs. That more than offsets the 374,500 jobs lost in March and April 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. The average workweek for Colorado employees on private, nonfarm payrolls increased over the past year four-tenths of an hour to 33.8 hours. Average hourly earnings rose $2.58 to $35.27. F

n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 339 in October, down 29.4% from October 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $144.3 million in October, down 29.3% from October 2021 n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $7 million for October, up 10.4% from October 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.7 million for October, up 8.6% from October 2021. n Unemployment

s Mesa County — 3.8% for October, up 0.4.

s Colorado — 3.6% for October, up 0.2. s United States — 3.7% for October, up 0.2.

Sales tax collections continue upward trend

Sales tax collections, a key measure of retail activity, continue to trend upward in Grand Junction and Mesa County.

The City of Grand Junction reported a 10.1 percent increase in sales tax collections in October compared to the same month last year. Mesa County reported an 8.3 percent year-over-year gain. October reports reflect September sales.

City lodging tax collections dropped in October, although yearto-date collections in 2022 outpace 2021.

The City of Grand Junction collected more than $5.9 million in sales taxes, an increase of nearly $544,000 over what was collected a year ago. The city also received almost $987,000 as its share of sales tax Mesa County collects and distributes back to municipalities, an 18.7 percent increase.

The city collected nearly $144,000 in use taxes, a 19.5 percent decline from a year ago.

Through the first 10 months of 2022, the city collected almost $53.7 million in sales taxes. That’s an increase of more than $5 million and 10.4 percent over the same span in 2021. The city collected more than $8.8 million as its share of county sales tax, a gain of 11.8 percent. Use tax collections rose 37.7 percent to more than $1.3 million.

Mesa County collected more than $4.3 million in sales taxes in October, an increase of more than $330,000 compared to the same month last year.

The county also collected more than $386,000 in use taxes, nearly all of that assessed on automobiles purchased outside the county, but used inside the county. That’s an increase of 12.1 percent over the same month last year.

County tax collections on retail sales exceeded $2.4 million, an increase of 5 percent. Collections increased 2 percent on hotel stays and restaurant meals, 9 percent on manufacturing and 14.6 percent on telecommunications.

Through the first 10 months of 2022, county sales tax collections topped $40.7 million, an increase of almost $4 million and 10.8 percent over the same span in 2021. Use tax collections increased 4.2 percent to almost $3.7 million.

Year-to-date tax collections on retail sales grew 7.6 percent to nearly $24.3 million. Collections increased for every other industry category, including gains of 8.1 percent in the hotel and restaurant category, 14.7 percent in manufacturing and 22.9 percent in telecommunications.

Grand Junction lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays in the city, topped $488,000 in October. That’s a decrease of nearly $19,500 and 3.8 percent from the same month a year ago.

Year-to-date lodging tax collections totaled nearly $4 million. That’s an increase of more than $841,000 and 27 percent from 2021. F

The Business Times

November 24-December 7, 2022

Index signals possible recession

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to retreat, signaling a possible recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined eight-tenths of a percent to 114.9 in October. The index has dropped in each of the last eight months.

Separate measures of current and past conditions increased in October. “The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rate as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, is projected to increase 1.8 percent in 2022 over 2021. But a recession is expected to start around the end of the year and continue through mid-2023, Ozyildirim said.

The LEI decreased 3.2 percent over the past six months. That compares to a 0.5 percent gain over the previous six months. Weaknesses among leading indicators have become more widespread.

For October, six of 10 components of the index declined, including building permits, consumer expectations, leading credit and new orders indexes and stock prices. An increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance also pulled down the index. The interest rate spread and new orders for consumer and capital goods increased. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), a measure of current conditions, increased two-tenths of a point to 109.3. The CEI rose 1.1 percent over the previous six months.

For October, three of four components of the CEI advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production declined.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), a measure of past performance, edged up a tenth of a point to 116.3. The LAG increased 1.5 percent over the past three months.

For October, four of seven components of the LAG advanced: average prime rate charged by banks, consumer credit, commercial and industrial financing and inventories. The change in labor costs and services pulled down the index, as did an increase in the average duration of unemployment.

Ataman Ozyildirim