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November 25-December 8, 2021 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends Contributors Jobless rate trends down Opinion Labor shortages persist in Mesa County heading into holiday season Phil Castle The Business Times Business Briefs The unemployment rate continues to trend down in Mesa County, although at a slow pace. “We’re seeing

Business People movement in the right direction, but it’s a very gradual movement,” said Curtis Englehart, director of the Mesa Almanac County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. Labor demand remains strong, particularly in the health care sector, and employers struggle to fill job openings, Englehart said. That will leave some businesses short-handed for the holiday season. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a point to 4.7 percent in Mesa County in October, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. With declines in each of the last four months, the joblessness has retreated to its lowest level since the rate stood at 4.1 percent in February 2020. At this time last year, the rate was higher at 6.3 percent. Between September and October 2021, Mesa County payrolls increased 157 to 73,314. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work decreased 148 to 3,612. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, edged up nine to 76,926. Compared to a year ago, payrolls increased 1,069 even as the ranks of the unemployed fell 1,211. The labor force decreased 142. Labor demand as measured by the number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center increased between September and October as well as on a year-over-year basis, Englehart said. For October, 1,069 orders were posted. That’s up 49 from September and 360 from a year ago. Through the first 10 months of 2021, 9,686 orders were posted. That’s an increase of 4,392

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE

n Business filings t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020. AREA JOBLESS RATES and nearly 83 percent from the same span in 2020. n Confidence s Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 in October, up 4.0. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t Delta County t Garfield County t Mesa County t Montrose County t Rio Blanco County Oct. 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.0 4.1 Sept. 4.1 4.1 4.9 4.2 4.3 Labor demand remains strong across industry sectors, but is particularly pronounced in the health care sector, Englehart said. He attributed the situation in part to turnover related to burnout in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as COVID vaccine mandates. “It’s a t National Federation of combination of things.” Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 98.2 for October, down 0.9. Employers in other sectors also have struggled to fill job openings, including small retailers gearing up for the holiday shopping season. High school and college students looking for n Foreclosures seasonal jobs have helped fill some openings, he said. t Foreclosure filings in Looking ahead, Englehart said he expects the jobless rate Mesa County, 1 in October, down from 2 in Curtis Englehart to continue to trend downward through the end of the year. The jobless rate historically spikes in Mesa County in January to its October 2020. highest level of the year, and he said he’ll be watching to see if s Foreclosure sales in that continues and to what extent. Mesa County, 3 in For October, seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates also October, up from 2 in retreated in neighboring Western Colorado counties: down a tenth October 2020. of a point to 4 percent in Garfield County and two-tenths of a point n Indexes to 3.9 percent in Delta County, 4 percent in Montrose County and 4.1 percent in Rio Blanco County. s Conference Board Employment The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell two-tenths Trends Index, 112.23 for of a point to 5.4 percent as nonfarm payrolls increased 10,600 October, up 2.55. from September to October. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 118.3 for October, up 0.9%. Over the past year, payrolls increased 104,600 with the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 60.8% for October, down 0.3%. Construction payrolls declined. Over the past 18 months, Colorado has regained 313,100 of the 375,800 jobs lost between February and April 2020 because of the pandemic and related restrictions. n Lodging The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm s Lodging tax collections in payrolls shortened four-tenths of an hour over the past year to 33.3 Grand Junction, $249,464 hours. Average hourly earnings increased $1.71 to $32.54. for October, up 75.5% F from October 2020. n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 480 in October, down 17.1% from October 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $204 million in October, up 9.7% from October 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.39 million for October, up 17.8% from October 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.32 million for October, up 17.1% from October 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 4.7% for October, down 0.2.

t Colorado — 5.4% for October, down 0.2. t United States — 4.6% for September, down 0.2.

Grand Valley tax collections continue to increase

A key measure of sales activity continues to increase in Grand Junction and Mesa County.

The City of Grand Junction reported a 17.6 percent increase in sales tax collections in October compared to the same month a year ago. Mesa County reported an even larger proportional gain at 18.8 percent.

City lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, rose 75.5 percent.

October tax collections reflect September sales and lodging.

The city collected a total of nearly $6.4 million in sales and use taxes in October, an increase of nearly $967,000 and 17.8 percent over the same month last year. Use taxes, a smaller and more volatile revenue source, rose 29.9 percent.

Through the first 10 months of 2021, the city collected a total of more than $57.4 million in sales and use taxes, an increase of almost $10 million and 21 percent over the same span in 2020. Sales tax collections increased 31.4 percent, while use tax collections rose 15.2 percent.

Mesa County collected a total of more than $4.3 million in sales and use taxes. That’s an increase of almost $630,000 and 17.1 percent over last year.

The gain in sales tax collections more than offset a slight dip in use taxes — nearly all of them on automobiles purchased outisde the county, but used in the county.

County tax collections on retail sales in October reached almost $1.4 million, a 13.5 percent increase over the same month last year. Collections on internet sales topped $226,000.

Tax collections increased 28.5 percent on hotel stays and restaurant meals, 23.5 percent on automobiles and 15.4 percent on home improvements.

Through the first 10 months of 2021, the county collected a total of more than $40.2 million in sales and use taxes. That’s an increase of nearly $7 million and 21 percent over the same span in 2020. Sales tax collections rose 20.3 percent, while use tax collections rose 28.9 percent.

The county collected more than $13 million in taxes on retail sales during the firsr 10 months of 2021, a 19.4 percent increase over the same span in 2020. Tax collections on internet sales accounted for almost $2.4 million.

Year-to-date sales taxes increased 30.6 percent on hotel stays and restaurant meals, 29.8 percent on home improvements and 18.6 percent on automobiles. Collections decreased 41.6 percent in the oil and natural gas sector.

The City of Grand Junction collected almost $250,000 in lodging taxes in October. For the first 10 months of 2021, city lodging tax collections exceeded $1.5 million. That’s an increase of 63.1 percent over the same span in 2020. F

The Business Times

November 25-December 8, 2021

Leading index signals continued growth in 2022

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth despite rising prices and supply chain issues.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index advanced nine-tenths of a percent to 118.3 in October. Separate measures of current and past performance also increased.

Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said the increase in the leading index suggests economic expansion will continue in 2022 and perhaps gain some momentum in the final months of 2021.

“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022,” Ozyildirim said. Still, the Conference Board forecasts annual growth in gross domestic product — the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country — of 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 before moderating to 2.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

The Leading Economic Index increased 4.6 percent over the past six months, up slightly from the 4.5 percent gain over the six months before that. By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate 2 percent in the third quarter and 6.7 percent in the second quarter.

For October, eight of 10 indicators of the index advanced, including building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly unemployment claims also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours and

consumer expectations for business conditions retreated. The Coincident Economic Index rose a half percent to 106.3. The index has increased 1.7 percent over the past six months. For October, all four indicators advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. The Lagging Economic Index rose four-tenths of a percent to 107.4. The index has increased 1.1 percent over the past three months. Ataman Ozyildirim For October, three of seven indicators advanced, including inventories and labor costs. A decline in the average duration of unemployment also pushed up the index. Consumer credit retreated. The average prime rate charged by banks, commercial and industrial financing and the cost of services remained unchanged. F