Trends

December 9-22, 2021 The Business Times Page 15

Real estate deals top $2 billion

Year-to-date dollar volume soars to record heights for Mesa County

Phil Castle

The Business Times The number of real estate transactions in Mesa County continues to trend down compared to what was a busier time last year. But higher prices and large commercial deals have pushed year-to-date dollar volume past the $2 billion milestone. There are signs the market could return to more normal levels of activity with seasonal slowing. Concerns persist over the COVID-19 pandemic and rising interest rates. But the overall outlook remains upbeat, said Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray & Co. Real Estate in Grand Junction. “This year generally was a good year, and I feel pretty good about next year.” Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, said higher prices and lower inventories could slow activity, but demand likely will remain strong. Young said 440 transactions worth a total of $170 million were reported in Mesa County in November. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 6 percent and dollar volume rose 11.1 percent. Just 11 transactions accounted for a collective $22 million in dollar volume, Young said, including the sale of 1,480 acres of grazing land north of Unaweep Canyon for $4.5 million, a commercial building and warehouse on Valley Court in Grand Junction for $2.75 million and a luxury home and horse property on Home Ranch Court for $2.15 million. The latest numbers bring year-to-date totals for 2021 to 5,621 transactions worth a combined $2.1 billion. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 9.9 percent and dollar volume jumped 32.6 percent. With a month still left in 2021, dollar volume already has topped the previous peak of $1.73 billion in 2009. Transactions remain below the 7,198 reported in 2005.

News Trends INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 109.5 in November, down 2.1. t Leeds Business Confidence t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020. According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential market in Mesa County, 290 transactions worth a total of $117 million were reported in November. Compared to the same month last year, transactions decreased 10.8 percent and dollar volume increased 4.5 percent. “We’re seeing some signs of a normal market,” Bray said. Demand remained strong this time last year after the onset of Opinion Business Briefs Business People Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t National Federation of Independent Business Small the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions initially curtailed activity. This year, some seasonal slowing has occurred, he said. Low inventories continue to play a role as well, Bray said. The 313 active residential listings at the end of November constituted Almanac Business Optimism Index a 10.8 percent decline from the same time a year ago. 98.2 for October, down 0.9. Robert Bray Dollar volume continues to increase, though, along with n Foreclosures price appreciation. At $364,500, the median price of homes sold in November was up 21 percent from a year ago. s Foreclosure filings in Year to date, 3,747 residential transactions worth a total of Mesa County, 3 in nearly $1.4 billion were reported in 2021. Compared to the same November, up from 2 in November 2020. span in 2020, transactions edged up 1.2 percent while dollar volume jumped 17.4 percent. n Foreclosure sales in Bray said he expects transactions for 2021 to come in at or Mesa County, 0 in slightly below 2020. Dollar volume already has surpassed the November, unchanged from 0 in November 2020. nearly $1.3 billion recorded last year. Looking ahead to 2022, Bray said he expects some seasonal n Indexes Annette Young slowing in real estate activity through early spring, but then an s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 114.49 for increase in the pace of sales. The COVID pandemic remains an uncertainty. If interest rates on mortgages increase, that could November, up 1.46. push some potential buyers out of the market. s Conference Board Leading Young said lower inventories and higher prices could slow Economic Index 118.3 for the pace of real estate activity. But as millenials reach the age October, up 0.9%. when post people buy homes, demand likely will remain strong. s Institute for Supply Management Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to slow in Purchasing Managers Index Mesa County. Year to date, 25 foreclosure filings and 18 foreclosure for manufacturing, 61.1% for sales were reported, Young said. That’s down 70.6 percent and November, up 0.3%. 35.7 percent, respectively, from last year. n Lodging The seven resales of foreclosed property so far in 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all transactions, a fraction of the s Lodging tax collections in 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a healthy real Grand Junction, $249,464 estate market. for October, up 75.5% F from October 2020. n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 440 in November, down 6% from November 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $170 million in November, up 11.1% from November 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.39 million for October, up 17.8% from October 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.32 million for October, up 17.1% from October 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 4.7% for October, down 0.2.

t Colorado — 5.4% for October, down 0.2. t United States — 4.2% for November, down 0.4.

Consumer Confidence Index retreats

A measure of consumer confidence has slipped as concerns about inflation and COVID-19 mount. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell 2.1 points to 109.5 in November. “Expectations about short-term growth prospects ticked up, but job and income prospects ticked down. Concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, the Delta variant were the primary drivers of the slight decline,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles and major appliances decreased.

Franco said the holiday shopping season should be a good one for retailers, and economic expansion likely will continue into early 2022. “However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and the potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”

The member-driven think tank based in New York bases the Consumer Confidence Index on the results of monthly household surveys. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Less upbeat assessments of current business and labor

conditions pulled down the present situation component of the index three points from October to 142.5. The proportion of consumers responding to the survey upon which the November index was based who described business conditions as “good” fell 1.3 points to 17 percent. The share of those who called conditions “bad” rose 3.3 points to 29 percent. The proportion of those who said jobs are “plentiful” rose 3.2 points to 58 percent. The share of those who said jobs are “hard to get” edged up a tenth of a point to 11.1 percent. Less optimistic outlooks pulled down the expectations component of the index 1.4 points to 87.6. Lynn Franco The share of consumers who said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose 1.4 points to 24.1 percent. The proportion of those who said they anticipate worsening conditions fell 1.2 points to 20.7 percent. The share of consumers who expect more jobs to become available in coming months fell 2.3 points to 22.1 percent. The proportion of those forecasting fewer jobs edged up two-tenths of a point to 18.9 percent. While 17.9 percent of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase — down a half point from October — 12 percent said they anticipated lower incomes. That’s up eight-tenths of a point.

The Business Times

December 9-22, 2021 Pace of U.S. payroll increases slows Labor index rises

Hiring continues in the United States, but at a slower pace in November that was less than half the average monthly gain this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 210,000 and the unemployment rate decreased four-tenths of a point to 4.2 percent, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The employment gain was less than what economists forecast as well as the average monthly increase of 555,000 so far this year.

Estimated payroll gains for the two past months were revised upward a total of 82,000 to 546,000 for October and 379,000 for September.

Employment has increased 18.5 million since April 2020, but remains 3.9 million lower than February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

For November, 6.9 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 2.2 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Another 4.3 million were counted among those working parttime because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor force participation rate rose two-tenths of a point to 61.8 percent.

Payroll gains were spread among a number of industry sectors. Employment increased 90,000 in professional and business services, 50,000 in transportation and warehousing and 31,000 in both construction and manufacturing.

Employment decreased 20,000 in retail trades.

The average workweek lengthened a tenth of an hour to 34.8 hours. The average manufacturing workweek also edged up a tenth of an hour to 40.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings rose 8 cents to $31.03. Over the past year, earnings have increased 4.8 percent. F

An index tracking labor trends in the United States continues to forecast payroll gains and lower jobless rates.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose 1.46 points to 114.49 in November.

“The Employment Trends Index continues to advance steadily, suggesting a decent outlook for job growth over the next several months,” said Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute.

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