Trends

December 23, 2021-January 5, 2022 The Business Times News Page 15 Trends Contributors Jobless rate holds steady Opinion Labor demand remains strong, especially in the health care sector Phil Castle The Business Times Business Briefs The monthly unemployment rate remains unchanged in Mesa County even as labor demand remains strong, especially in the health care sector.

Business People The labor force continues to grow, positioning the county well for the year ahead, said Curtis Englehart, Almanac director of the Mesa County Workforce Center in Grand Junction. “I’m hopeful we can keep up this momentum.” The seasonally unadjusted jobless rate remained unchanged between October and November at 4.7 percent, according to the latest estimates from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. The jobless rate has dropped more than three points since January with declines in eight out of the last 10 months. At this time last year, the rate stood at 6.7 percent. Between October and November, Mesa County payrolls increased 127 to 73,896. The number of people counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work also rose — 40 to 3,639. The labor force, which includes the employed and unemployed, increased 167 to 77,535. Compared to a year ago, payrolls increased 1,668 even as the ranks of the unemployed decreased 1,557. The workforce edged up 111 for a fifth consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Englehart said lower jobless rates in recent months more accurately reflect labor market conditions. Labor demand as measured by the number of job orders posted at the Mesa County Workforce Center continues to increase, he said. For November, 1,102 orders were posted, a nearly 61 percent increase over the same month a year ago. Through November, 10,788 orders were posted in 2021. That’s an 80 percent increase

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE

n Business filings t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020. AREA JOBLESS RATES over the same span in 2020 and 46 percent increase over the same period in 2019. n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 109.5 in November, down 2.1. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. s Delta County s Garfield County n Mesa County s Montrose County s Rio Blanco County Nov. 4.4 4.2 4.7 4.3 4.6 Oct. 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.0 4.1 Englehart said the volume of job orders has increased to the highest level he’s seen in the five years he’s worked as director. While job orders are spread out among most industry sectors, the majority come from health care, he said. “It’s a dire need s National Federation of right now.” Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 98.4 for November, up 0.2. Englehart encouraged students and retirees considering working part-time to apply for positions in health care and help fill that need. They can call the Mesa County Workforce Center at n Foreclosures 248-7560 to talk with an employment specialist. s Foreclosure filings in Looking ahead, Englehart said he expects the jobless rate Mesa County, 3 in to hold steady or perhaps decline slightly for December. He also November, up from 2 in Curtis Englehart expects the typical spike in the rate in January, then a gradual November 2020. decline in 2022. n Foreclosure sales in Between October and November, seasonally unadjusted Mesa County, 0 in unemployment rates increased in neighboring Western Colorado November, unchanged from counties — a half point to 4.6 percent in Rio Blanco County, 0 in November 2020. four-tenths of a point to 4.4 percent in Delta County, three-tenths n Indexes of a point to 4.3 percent in Montrose County and a tenth of a point to 4.2 percent in Garfield County. s Conference Board Employment The state seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell three-tenths of a Trends Index, 114.49 for point to 5.1 percent as nonfarm payrolls grew 9,800. November, up 1.46. Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased 117,500 with s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 119.9 for November, up 1.1%. the biggest gains in the leisure and hospitality; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities sectors. Construction employment declined 1,400.s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 61.1% for November, up 0.3%. Over the past 19 months, Colorado has regained 322,000 of the 375,800 jobs lost between February and April 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. That job recovery rate of 85.7 percent exceeds the national rate of 82.5 percent. n Lodging The average workweek for employees on private nonfarm s Lodging tax collections in payrolls shortened 1.2 hours over the past year to 33.1 hours. Grand Junction, $249,464 Average hourly earning increased $1.78 to $33.05. for October, up 75.5% F from October 2020. n Real estate

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 440 in November, down 6% from November 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $170 million in November, up 11.1% from November 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.39 million for October, up 17.8% from October 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for November, up 15.3% from November 2020. n Unemployment

n Mesa County — 4.7% for November, unchanged.

t Colorado — 5.1% for November, down 0.3. t United States — 4.2% for November, down 0.4.

Small Business Optimism Index edges upward

A measure of optimism among small business owners has edged up, but also reflects record-low expectations for improving conditions.

“As the end of the year nears, the outlook for business conditions is not encouraging to small business owners as lawmakers propose additional mandates and tax increases,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. “Owners are also pessimistic as many continue managing challenges like rampant inflation and supply chain disruptions.”

The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose two-tenths of a point to 98.4 in November.

The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For November, four of 10 components of the index increased, four declined and two remain unchanged.

The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the November index was based who said they expect the economy to improve in coming months fell a point from October to a net negative 38 percent and a tie for the lowest reading in the 48-year history of the index.

A net 27 percent of respondents reported plans to increase

capital outlays, down four points. A net 10 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, unchanged. A net 25 percent reported plans to increase staffing, down one point. A net 48 percent reported unfilled job openings, also down a point. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 29 percent cited quality of labor and 9 percent cost of labor. A net 44 percent of respondents said they raised compensation, a record-high proportion. A net 32 percent said they expect to raise compensation in the next three months, also a record. The share of those who said they expect more sales rose two points to 2 percent. The share of those reporting higher earnings remained Bill Dunkelberg unchanged. But at a net negative 17 percent, a bigger share reported lower earnings. Among those reporting higher earnings, 61 percent credited sales volume. Of those reporting lower earnings, 32 percent blamed the cost of materials and 25 percent lower sales. A net 10 percent reported plans to increase inventories, up two points. A net 15 percent said they consider current inventories too low, up six points. A net 59 percent of respondents reported raising selling prices, an increase of six points from October and the highest reading since 1979. Price hikes were most frequent in the wholesale, construction and manufacturing sectors. F

The Business Times

December 23, 2021-January 5, 2022

Leading index forecasts continued U.S. growth

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index rose 1.1 percent to 119.9 in November. A separate measure of current conditions also increased, while a measure of past performance edged down.

The Leading Economic Index has advanced nine straight months, but remains below its previous peak in February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the past six months, the index rose 4.6 percent, slower than the 4.9 percent gain in the six-month period before that. Strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread, however. Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the U.S., grew at an annual rate 2 percent in the third quarter and 6.7 percent in the second quarter. For November, eight of 10 indicators of the index advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for consumer goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions retreated.

INDEXES AT A GLANCE New orders for capital goods held steady. The Coincident Economic Index rose three-tenths of Here are the readings for the three Conference Board economic indexes for November: s Leading Index 1.1% s Coincident Index 0.3% t Lagging Index 0.1% a percent to 106.7. The index increased 2 percent over the past six months. For November, all four indicators advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. The Lagging Economic Index slipped a tenth of a percent to 107.2. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past three months For November, three of seven indicators advanced: commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit and inventories. Labor and services costs declined. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.

F