Global Inflation Will Fall in 2023 and 2024: IMF

The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity.

Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

In its January 2023 update of WEO, IMF states that the rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of Covid-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery. Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent.

The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, according to the IMF, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.

On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress.

In most economies, according to the IMF, amid the cost-of-living crisis, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation. With tighter monetary conditions and lower growth potentially affecting financial and debt stability, it is necessary to deploy macroprudential tools and strengthen debt restructuring frameworks.

The IMF observes that accelerating Covid-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers. Fiscal support should be better targeted at those most affected by elevated food and energy prices, and broad-based fiscal relief measures should be withdrawn.

Stronger multilateral cooperation is essential to preserve the gains from the rules-based multilateral system and to mitigate climate change by limiting emissions and raising green investment.

Crime, Corruption, and Impunity in India

Politicians, bureaucrats, police, and judges have formed a criminal gang in India. The following cases depict how they collude with criminals and commit crimes and corruption with impunity while the ordinary citizens are suffering. Click the following links for details.

Cabinet Secretariat Case Ministry of HomeAffairs (MHA) Case

Prime Minister Office (PMO) Case Delhi Lokayukta Case

DoPTCase CBI Case

Economic Offences Wing (EOW) Case Supreme Court Case

Delhi Govt Case Delhi Petitions Committee / CVC Case

NHRC Case School Education Case

Environmental Crime Case Lokpal Removal Case

Judicial Corruption Case RCS Corruption Case

AAPCorruption Case Widehouse Scandal

NHRC Case at UN HRC IAS Group Corruption Case

CPGRAMS Cases PGMS Cases

IAS Corruption Record UNCAC Petition

Delhi Police Case DoPTProcesses

RCS RTI Violations DDACorruption Case

Petitions and Representations by Rakesh Raman. Up to January 2023

DDA Allows FAR Construction Crime in Delhi Housing Societies

The approval for harmful FAR construction is mainly given by the corrupt officials of Delhi Development Authority (DDA).

This story aims to inform about a massive environmental crime that has been happening in Delhi’s cooperative group housing societies (CGHS) for the past about six years. The crime - termed as the Widehouse Corruption Scandal - involves lethal construction which is being carried out under a harmful Floor Area Ratio (FAR) scheme of the government.

Delhi Development Authority (DDA), which is among the most corrupt departments of India.

The approval for harmful FAR construction is mainly given by the corrupt officials of Delhi Development Authority (DDA). Since the FAR construction which runs for years spreads lethal dust pollution, noise pollution, and air pollution in housing complexes, hundreds or thousands of children, men, women - including senior citizens - who live in these houses have been suffering for the past many years.

The FAR crime is being committed by local criminals who operate as management committee (MC) members of cooperative group housing societies in connivance with the corrupt officials of Delhi Development Authority (DDA), Registrar Cooperative Societies (RCS) office of Delhi Government, Delhi Fire Service (DFS), Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC), and Delhi Police.

In response to the campaigns that I run to stop FAR construction and complaints filed by me, the Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT), Government of India, has asked the Cabinet Secretariat to start investigation of 10 IAS officers who are involved in the FAR construction crime.

[ You can click here to watch the related video on RMN YouTube Channel and subscribe to the Channel to watch more informative videos. ]

The Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT) with its Office Memorandum dated 28th June 2022 has urged the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, to investigate the corruption cases of IAS officers through the Group of Secretaries. The DoPT has sent multiple such letters to Mr. D.K. Jain, Under Secretary (VCC), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India. But no action has been taken.

I am also a victim of this heinous crime as the criminal FAR construction activity has been happening for the past nearly five years at DPS CGHS, Sector 4, Dwarka, New Delhi - where I live. It is happening even today - in February 2023 - and is likely to continue for many more years. Although the FAR crime is taking place in many other housing societies of Delhi, I am explaining the enormity of this crime with the construction work happening at my housing society DPS CGHS.

While it is the responsibility of the government to protect people from FAR construction-related pollution and accidents, I urge the authorities to get this crime immediately stopped in occupied housing societies.

The criminals - including MC members and government officials - who are committing the FAR crime should also be convicted and jailed at the earliest.

Rakesh Raman

RSF to Pakistan: Do Not Criminalize Criticism of Armed Forces

RSF adds in its statement that the adoption of such an amendment could constitute a serious obstacle to the democratic process in the South Asian nation.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) - which defends freedom of journalists in the world - has called on the prime minister’s (PM) office in Pakistan to immediately abandon plans to make it an offense to criticize the armed forces, as it would pose a serious threat

to journalistic freedom.

In a statement released on February 13, RSF said that the proposed new law’s wording is extremely vague and its consequences could be disastrous in the run-up to general elections later this year in Pakistan.

Five years in prison for a comment about the army – that is what journalists could face under the proposed legislative amendment that Pakistan’s federal government is planning to submit to parliament.

The draft penal code amendment, which RSF says it has seen, would create a new type of offense. Under the proposed new section 500A, “whoever makes, publishes, circulates any statement or disseminates information, through any medium, with an intention to ridicule, or scandalize the judiciary or the armed forces of Pakistan or member thereof” could be jailed for up to five years or fined 1 million rupees (3,400 euros).

According to RSF, the amendment would also have a big impact on the Code of Criminal Procedure. It says any person accused under the new section could be arrested by the police without a warrant and, if jailed, would be denied any possibility of release on bail or release as a result of an out-of-court settlement.

“We call on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to immediately abandon this proposed amendment, which poses all kinds of problems,” said Daniel Bastard, head of RSF's Asia-Pacific desk. “It creates a very vaguely worded offense that gives the police exorbitant administrative powers over journalists and is clearly designed solely to prohibit any form of comment about the armed forces.”

RSF adds in its statement that the adoption of such an amendment could constitute a serious obstacle to the democratic process in the South Asian nation.

In fact, Pakistan’s legislative arsenal is already well stocked with disincentives for defamation. Under the Defamation Ordinance of 2002, which is a civil defamation law, plaintiffs can get a court to rule in their favor without having to prove they have suffered any specific damage to their interests or reputation.

And under sections 499 and 505 of the Penal Code, defining criminal defamation, a “statement conducive to public mischief” is punishable by up to seven years in prison.

RSF says that Pakistan’s governments have often tried to beef up provisions for penalizing any form of criticism of the armed forces, which tend to be seen as the “king-maker” in Pakistani politics.

In 2021, then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s administration submitted a proposed law to parliament under which “ridiculing” the armed forces would have been punishable by two years in prison. Parliament ended up rejecting it.

About the Editor

The editor of The Unrest news magazine Rakesh Raman is a national award-winning journalist and founder of the humanitarian organization RMN Foundation. Besides working at senior editorial positions with leading media companies, he was writing an exclusive edit-page column regularly for The Financial Express (a daily business newspaper of The Indian Express Group).

Nowadays, for the past 12 years, he has been running his own global news services on multiple news sites. He runs various environment protection, education awareness, and anti-corruption campaigns, and publishes digital magazines and research reports on different subjects. Earlier, he had been associated with the United Nations (UN) through the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) as a digital media expert to help businesses use technology for brand marketing and business development.

At present, Rakesh is associated with the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project as a Country Expert for India to provide expert research inputs on multiple topics pertaining to democracy and governance. The V-Dem Project is managed by V-Dem Institute under the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Currently, he is also working as an editor for Wikipedia, which is a free online global encyclopedia. In order to inform the Indian citizens and the global community about the extent of corruption in India, he compiled and released in October 2022 a comprehensive report on corruption in the country. Under the title “India Corruption Research Report 2022 (ICRR 2022),” the research report covers diverse aspects of corruption in India.

He has also been publishing The Integrity Bulletin news magazine since 2018 to cover local and international corruption issues to engage with different stakeholders who are trying to combat corruption in the world.

He has also announced the new project for 2023 to compile the India Corruption Research Report 2023 (ICRR 2023). You can click here to know about the project and support it financially with your donations.

He has launched a nationwide campaign to introduce social democracy in India in order to build an egalitarian society in which all citizens could enjoy equal rights, opportunities, freedoms, and access to justice. He is running an editorial section / microsite “Power Play: Lok Sabha Election 2024 in India” to cover the election news, events, and political campaigns.

He is also running a nationwide campaign to save school students of India from directionless education so that students could acquire modern skills that can help them in the job market. In his anti-corruption activities, he participated in a global petition led by Germany-based international organization Transparency International to call for the UN General Assembly Special Session against Corruption, UNGASS 2021, to direct all countries to set up central, public registers of beneficial ownership.

He runs a community-driven anti-corruption social service “Clean House” to help the residents of Delhi raise their voice against the growing corruption and injustice