Unusual forecasts

Felicity Liggins, Education Outreach and External Training Manager, Met Office

We’re all used to the forecasts we see on the TV or online telling us what weather we can expect over the next few hours or days, but that is not the only type of forecasts the Met Office produces. Weather and climate change affect everything we do – from the food we put in our shopping baskets to how we safely transport goods around the UK to the safety of racing pigeons. Here are just some of the forecasts we’ve produced over the years for a whole variety of different customers.

Pet food

Analysis has shown that in hot weather, owners tend to give their pampered pets dry food like biscuits rather than wet food in jelly or gravy, which can dry out quickly and attract flies in the heat. Shoppers are also more likely to buy salad items, food for the BBQ or sunscreen when the temperature rises. The Met Office has helped the retail sector understand the trends in footfall, sales and product availability that are influenced by the weather, meaning businesses that build weather forecasts into their decision making could ensure they had the right stock available at the right time.

Bluetongue disease

Bluetongue is a notifiable disease that affects some wild animals and livestock including sheep, cattle and goats. Although it is not a risk to food safety, when outbreaks do occur, they impact the health, movement and trade of livestock. It is a disease traditionally associated with Africa and the southern Mediterranean, but with increasing temperatures it sometimes appears closer to home in mainland Europe. It is generally spread by infected midges, alongside poor animal hygiene practices. If outbreaks occur in northern Europe, it can affect livestock in the UK if the weather conditions are conducive and the midges are blown in our direction. Imported animals who are infected can also cause outbreaks.

During the last outbreak in the late 2000s, the Met Office provided forecasts of potential at-risk areas in the UK using our atmospheric dispersion model. This allowed the authorities and farming communities to take action to prevent widescale infection through vaccination and other health protection measures. The same atmospheric dispersion model can be used across a wide range of applications too, where we need to predict where particles might go – from volcanic ash to radioactive materials to pollutants from industrial incidents, such as the Buncefield explosion in 2005.

Transporting crisps

Strong winds and gusts are a risk to the stability of lorries, particularly when empty or with a light load, such as crisps. So, the Met Office has produced forecasts for retail to help them decide when and via which routes it is best to safely transport light loads such as potato crisps. Such forecasts not only enable the movement of our favourite foodstuffs to continue to flow, they also reduce costs and carbon emissions as driving in higher winds increases a vehicle’s resistance to drive through the air in front of it (the ‘drag’), leading to an increased expenditure of fuel.

Racing pigeons

Racing pigeons is sport beloved by many across the UK and beyond, and weather plays a crucial part in a race’s success. Pigeons are not released if inclement weather is expected at the release site, or on the anticipated route home. Many pigeon racers are avid weather watchers, but we have also worked with the community to produce a bespoke forecast product to help keep the birds as safe as possible on their travels.

Space weather

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre is one of only three space weather prediction centres around the globe. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with our upper atmosphere and magnetic field to produce a variety of effects. These range from the beautiful displays of the aurora to significant impacts on our infrastructure, including power grid outages, disruption of satellite navigation and communication applications, and physical satellite damage. Thankfully such severe events are rare, but due to our dependency on a whole range of technologies that could be impacted, we now provide the UK government, responder communities, critical national infrastructure providers and the public with forecasts of space weather events.