Weather and climate information for a successful global energy transition

Professor Dr Alberto Troccoli, Managing Director, World Energy & Meteorology Council

The global energy transition is an ongoing process that started about a decade ago and aims to shift the world’s energy systems away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy generation such as solar, wind, and hydro power. Given the energy sector is one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases, as it accounts for about 75% of total emissions, it must therefore also be a key actor in trying to avert the ever-worsening damages caused by the impacts of climate change, in line with the decarbonisation targets stipulated by the 2015 Paris Agreement, and successive objectives such as the net zero emission target.

As the world continues to move towards a more renewable energy future, the crucial role of weather and climate information in supporting the energy transition and its decarbonisation cannot be overstated. For example, the generation of solar and wind power is highly dependent on weather conditions, such as solar radiation and wind speeds. Accurate weather forecasting and climate modelling can and does help energy companies and utilities predict the amount of power that will be generated by these systems and plan accordingly. This allows them to better manage the integration of variable renewable energy sources into the grid, and reduce the need for fossil fuel-based power generation as a backup. In addition to helping optimize the operation of renewable energy systems, weather and climate data can also play an important role in the planning and development of new renewable energy projects. For example, wind and solar resource mapping can help identify the most suitable locations for wind and solar farms, while climate projections can help inform decisions about the type and size of renewable energy systems that should be installed. As part of the planning phase, weather and climate information is also key in assessing the resilience of energy systems, which need to be strengthened to ensure continuity of supply and to mitigate damages to infrastructure by withstanding extreme weather events, such as high winds and heavy rain. Weather and climate information, more generally referred to as weather and climate services, can also play an important role in the development of energy storage systems, which are critical to the success of the global energy transition. Energy storage systems, such as batteries and pumped hydro, can help smooth out the fluctuations in power generation from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, and ensure that there is always a reliable supply of power available. However, the performance and longevity of these storage systems can be affected by weather conditions, such as temperature and humidity. Accurate weather and climate information can therefore help energy companies and utilities design and operate these systems in a way that maximizes their efficiency and extends their lifespan.

Another very important area where weather and climate data can be applied to optimize the global energy transition is in the field of energy efficiency. Weather and climate information can be used to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, transportation systems, and industrial processes. For example, by incorporating weather data into building energy models, architects and engineers can design buildings that are better insulated and more energy-efficient, which can help reduce the amount of energy needed to heat and cool them. Similarly, by incorporating weather and climate data into transportation systems, such as electric vehicles and public transportation, energy companies and governments can optimize the energy consumption of these systems, which can help reduce the overall energy demand.

In summary, the global energy transition is a complex and challenging process that requires, in addition to social and other technological advancements, the application of accurate weather and climate information to boost the chances of its success. And given the scale of the process, the wide international community in its various facets, therefore governments, research and business communities, all need to do their part. Importantly, from the weather and climate service side, activities have been growing and strengthening considerably in the past two decades, also with the support of programmes such as Copernicus in Europe, making this field sufficiently mature and ready to support the global energy transition.

FURTHER READING

2022 State of Climate Services: Energy (WMO, public.wmo. int/en/our-mandate/climate/state-of-climate-services-report)