SCF
Project Updates
Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and decisionmakers in agriculture
SCF project launch
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he Government of the Philippines, through the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD), and the Australian Government, through the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), signed a Memorandum of Subsidiary Arrangement in October 2004 for the undertaking of a four-year project titled Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture. The project will aim to look into and close the gap between the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs), particularly those looking at the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and their actual use and application in the risk-management decisions of farmers at the farm level and policymakers at the macro level. Implementing institutions for the Philippines are the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and the Leyte State University (LSU) while for Australia, the key institutions involved are South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW/DPI), and University of Sydney.
In order to raise awareness of the project, a project launch will be held on July 27, 2005 at the Dusit Hotel Nikko, Makati City. The launch primarily aims to introduce to the public— especially to the major stakeholders of the results of the project—the thrusts and direction of the project, its objectives, the various research and case studies to be undertaken, the various activities and expected outputs, and the institutions/individuals involved. The launch will also include presentations of the issues (both in the Philippines and in Australia) that the project intends to effectively address. This activity will be attended by the project team members, members of the Philippine Project Steering Committee, various government and private agencies/institutions affected or concerned with the results, members of media, Australian embassy and ACIAR representatives, members of the academe, representatives from nongovernment organizations and farmers groups, and regular participants of PAGASA’s Quarterly Climate Outlook Forum. A question-and-answer portion for both members of the media and other stakeholders will follow the various presentations regarding the project in order to entertain further questions about the project and elicit comments and possible feedback on some of its aspects. E
Vol. 1 No. 1 (June 2005)
Editor’s Notes We are happy to present this inaugural issue of the SCF Project Updates, the official semestral newsletter of the project titled Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and decisionmakers in agriculture funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). The newsletter aims to keep people informed of the progress of this ACIARsponsored project. The project is a four-year collaborative undertaking that started in March this year. Its key objective is to identify and close the gap between the potential and practical application of SCFs to agricultural systems and policies in the Philippines and Australia. The project involves research staff from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Leyte State University (LSU), South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), University of Sydney, and New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW/DPI).
Contents 2 Philippine weather and climate 101 3 Reaching out to local population on seasonal climate information 4 Planning for the project’s first-year program of activities
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Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS...Learning some basics
Philippine weather and climate 101
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n a forum on Basic Climatology Concepts and Information organized by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), in collaboration with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and Leyte State University (LSU), on April 21 under the project on seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), a team of climate experts and researchers from PAGASA briefed an audience of technical and policy-level representatives from various government agencies and members of the academe on certain basic concepts and information about Philippine weather and climate. The briefings included a compehensive lecture on the El Niño phenomenon—its definition, characteristics, evolution and tools of prediction, among others. The forum is only the first of a series of fora to be conducted by the abovementioned institutions under the four-year ACIAR-funded project and is part of the information, education and communiEl Niño is a phenomenon that oc- cation component of the curs in a specific point in the east- project to help people ern equatorial Pacific Ocean— have a better understandwhich is quite a distance away ing of the effects of certain from the Philippines—but its ef- climatic events and condifects and impact are nonetheless tions like the El Niño phefelt in the country because of the nomenon and how to respond to them. interactions between this ocean In his lecture on the surface temperature effect and the El Niño event, for inoverlying atmosphere in the tropi- stance, Mr. Ernesto cal Pacific region. This interaction Verceles, a weather speis better known as the El Niño cialist from PAGASA, explained that while the El Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Niño is a phenomenon that occurs in a specific point in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—which is quite a distance away from the Philippines—its effects and impact are nonetheless felt in the country because of the interactions between this ocean surface temperature effect and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical Pacific region. This interaction is better known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While there is no way that an El Niño and its effects may be stopped, efforts in research and prediction modelling may, however, help improve the capacity to understand the phenomenon and the reliability of forecasts about the onset of the El Niño, thereby helping to prepare for it. In the Philippines, PAGASA will play a big role in providing more reliable SCFs to guide various stakeholders, more specifically the farm sector. It is expected that from case studies to be done in different regions in the country, PAGASA will be in a position to better match forecasts with decisionmakers’ needs, thereby closing the gap between actual and potential values of SCF. Finally, during the forum, the difference between weather and climate was explained. Weather is a specific condition of the atmosphere at a particular time and space while climate is the average weather for a longer period of time. The various elements or factors affecting the weather and/or climate as well as the different climate types in the various regions of the Philippines were also presented and discussed. As a supplement, the PAGASA also gave an outlook of the climate in the Philippines for the next three months. E
SCF Project Updates 3 June 2005
Reaching out to local population on seasonal climate information
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art of the information dissemination activity of the project funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) on seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) was a seminar-workshop held on June 30, 2005 at the Leyte State University (LSU) in Baybay, Leyte. In coordination with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), the LSU hosted the seminar-workshop to inform the local people, particularly members of the academe in the region, agricultural officers and other local officials, about the project and the value of SCFs in their decisionmaking processes in relation to crop production, especially in addressing the impact of El Niño and other extreme climate events. The seminar also aimed to strengthen the coordination and cooperation between PAGASA and the agricultural sector in order for the latter to be better served through proper application of weather and climate information. Similar to what had been presented in the first Pulong Saliksikan held at the PIDS last April, resource persons from PAGASA presented basic climatology concepts and information such as Philippine climatology, basic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) concepts, tropical cyclone warning system as well as a climate outlook for the province of Leyte. After the PAGASA lectures, responses from the local government unit (LGU) representatives regarding their agriculture response strategies to extreme climate events such as El Niño
and La Niña were presented. The LGU representatives discussed the various measures they adopt under these circumstances, as divided into the (a) predisaster phase, (b) disaster phase, and (c) postdisaster phase. A lecture on PAGASA’s climate information products and services offered then followed, after which the participants were divided into two groups and were asked their assessment of such products and services in terms of usefulness, timeliness, ease of understanding and comprehensiveness. Suggestions on how said products may be further improved were likewise solicited from the participants. During this portion, exercises such as the plotting of a tropical cyclone track and interpretation of certain/selected PAGASA climate information products were also given to the participants. E
Participants are shown discussing and working on the exercises given them during the workshop
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Planning for the project’s first-year program of activities
T SCF Project Updates is a semestral newsletter of the project on Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture. It is published with financial support from the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). Apart from this semestral newsletter and papers released occasionally, information and updates about the project, its research and research-related activities may be accessed through the project website at http:// dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ACIAR. For inquiries, please call or email the SCF Project Updates editorial staff: 1. Dr. John Mullen Tel: 02 6391 3608 Fax: 02 6391 3650 Email: john.mullen@dpi.nsw.gov.au 2. Ms. Jennifer P.T. Liguton Tel: 632 893 5705 Fax: 632 893 9589 Email: jliguton@pidsnet.pids.gov.ph
Editorial Staff John Mullen/Jennifer P.T. Liguton Editors-in-Chief Genna J. Estrabon, Managing Editor Christian D. Mina, Claudette G. Santos, Anthony Joseph R. Lucero, Ernesto R. Verceles, Contributors Jane C. Alcantara, Design/Layout
o get the project off the ground, the team members of the project on Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture held a three-day planning workshop on March 8-10, 2005. Members of the Australian team from the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), University of Sydney and New South Wales Department of Primary Industries arrived to meet with their Philippine counterparts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Philippine Institute for Development Studies and Leyte State University on the finalization of the project’s overall framework and objectives and the work program for the project’s first year. The first day of the workshop was devoted to an introduction and familiarization of the institutions and individuals involved in the project from both Australia and the Philippines. This allowed an assessment of where each institution/individual’s comparative advantage and strength in terms of resources lay and where resource-sharing/ exchange may be facilitated. The succeeding days focused on the clarification of the project’s framework and objectives. The overall project head, Dr. Peter Hayman of SARDI, explained that a key objective of the project is the estimation of the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) for farming and policy decisions in both the Philippines and Australia. However, the bigger challenge is to find out, through surveys and case studies in both countries, how these SCFs are actually used by
farmers and policymakers and what their actual value is to these decisionmakers, and then to determine and assess whether there are gaps between the potential and actual value of the said SCFs—and why. The ultimate objective, of course, is to come up with recommendations and strategies on how to bridge such gaps. To be able to address these concerns, the team members carefully mapped out their program of activities, in particular, for the first year of the project. These included, among others, the identification of the case study sites, determination of possible models to be used in the valuation of climate forecasts, and outlining of various dissemination and IEC activities to familiarize and educate the key players/stakeholders on concepts relating to SCFs so that they will better understand and appreciate their use. Finally, the respective assignments of each of the implementing institutions were outlined. E Dates to remember: 1. July 8 Consultation meeting with stakeholders on policylevel case study in the Philippines 2:00 – 4:00 pm Room 207, NEDA sa Makati Bldg., Makati City 2. July 26 National Climate Outlook Forum (a quarterly forum of the PAGASA) 9:00 am – 12:00 nn PAGASA Main Office, Quezon City 3. July 26 Project Steering Committee (for the Philippines) Meeting 2:00 – 4:00 pm Romulo Hall, NEDA sa Makati Bldg., Makati City 4. July 27 Project Launch 9:00 am – 12:00 nn Dusit Hotel Nikko, Makati City
SCF Project June 2005
Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture About the project... Background Agriculture in the Philippines and eastern Australia is greatly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate in these two countries has higher season-to-season variability relative to other regions at the same latitude and level of annual rainfall. Such variability has significant effects on farm incomes. In Australia, it accounts for around 40 percent of the variation in its agricultural income. Similar consequences are also seen in the Philippines. Climate variability leaves rainfed agricultural producers exposed to high levels of risk when making decisions about the choice of outputs and inputs. It can also lead to conservative practices that, while reducing the negative effects of climatic extremes, may however come at the expense of reduced agricultural incomes and higher resource degradation. Because of all these, a strategic mitigation of climatic risk that is so endemic to rainfed agriculture would clearly be of significant value to farmers. Areas affected by ENSO suffer from increased variability, but one compensation is that improvements in the understanding of ENSO now provides a degree of predictability about climate fluctuations. Climate forecasts offer information on climatic conditions in the coming season and are sometimes presented in the form of a probability of receiving ‘above median’ or ‘below median’ rainfall. They offer skillful albeit uncertain information about climatic conditions in periods of 3-12 months ahead. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology provides three monthly seasonal climate outlooks based on the southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Although about 45 percent of Australian farmers claim to take seasonal climate forecasts into account when making decisions, focus groups show that many still have reser-
vations on the accuracy, lead time and economic benefits of their application to a specific decision. The El Niño-related drought of 2002 that affected eastern Australia, however, has led to a heightened media and farmer interest in climate science. In the Philippines, PAGASA issues seasonal climate forecasts based on the state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Philippines is a country greatly affected by ENSO. In this regard, PAGASA releases ENSO bulletins as part of the National ENSO Early Warning Monitoring System (NEEWMS). It is important to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of climate forecasts to reduce the difficulty of using probabilistic climate forecasts in decisionmaking. Forecasts that shift the odds but do not remove all the uncertainty are difficult for decisionmakers to use. Specifically, there is a widespread belief that the adoption of SCFs is hampered in both the Philippines and Australia by the lack of robust means of showing the economic value of SCF for specific decisions. Australia and the Philippines promote SCFs In an attempt to address the above shortcoming, a Memorandum of Subsidiary Arrangement was inked between the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD) and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) in October 2004 for the undertaking of a four-year project titled Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture. Implementing institutions for the Philippines are the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and the Leyte State University (LSU) while for Australia,
SCF Project June 2005
the key institutions involved are South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSWDPI), and University of Sydney. The SCF project between Australian and Philippine institutions will draw on economics and other disciplines to develop robust ways to use SCFs in risk management. This project will work with decisionmakers in the Philippines and Australia to see where, when and why skillful but uncertain SCFs can be valuable, and the circumstances when they are best ignored. The end result will be increased incomes of rural communities in the Philippines and Australia. The project is expected to bring about improved economic, social and environmental outcomes in the collaborating countries given that better management of climate variability has the potential to
El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs in a specific point in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—which is quite a distance away from the Philippines and Australia—but its effects and impact are nonetheless felt because of the interactions between the ocean surface temperature effect and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical Pacific region. This interaction is better known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Effect of ENSO in the tropical Pacific
Source: Australian Rainman
improve resource use efficiency by providing economic benefits through improved crop planting, management and grazing strategies. Case studies in the Philippines and Australia will be used to assess where economic, environmental and social benefits may arise. The Philippine studies will focus on poor Filipino farmers who are vulnerable to climate variability while Australian studies will consider the impact of droughts on farming families and rural communities. Two key methods are to be employed in this project. The first is to value the potential contribution of SCF to decisionmaking under climate uncertainty based on insights from economics and psychology. The second method is the use of farm and policy-level case studies in the Philippines and Australia to gain a practical appreciation of how decisionmakers actually use SCF and how to bridge the gap between potential and actual use of SCF. Case studies will use representative farm models to estimate the potential value of SCFs and will provide information on how farmers and other decisionmakers use SCFs to make real decisions. An important component of the project is the development of extension strategies based on the case study experiences to promote the value of SCFs. To help implement this, the project will tap into extension networks in Australia and the Philippines and provide tools for agricultural advisers to confidently promote SCFs to decision problems with the greatest payoff. Objectives To improve the capacity of PAGASA to develop and deliver SCF for the case study regions of the Philippines; To distill key practical and methodological features of economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCF; To estimate the potential economic value of SCF for farm and policy or industry level case studies in the Philippines and Australia; To identify those factors leading to a gap between actual and potential values of SCF; To develop and implement strategies to better match forecasts with decisionmaker’s needs. b
SCF Project June 2005
Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture People and organizations involved... Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) PAGASA is the Philippines’ meteorological service organization and is a member of the World Meteorological Organisation. Its mandate is “to mitigate or reduce the losses to life, property and the economy of the nation occasioned by typhoons, floods, droughts and other destructive weather disturbances.” Its website is http://www.pagasa. dost.gov.ph/.
Dr. Flaviana D. Hilario is the chief of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch (CAB). She will supervise the preparation of the SCF and will coordinate with concerned agencies like the PIDS and LSU in the smooth implementation of the project. Ms. Edna L. Juanillo is the head of the Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction Centre (CLIMPC) of the PAGASA (Weather Bureau). She is involved in the interpretation and analysis of the different climate parameters needed in the preparation of SCF. She will assist in the coordination of the Philippine activities with PIDS and LSU in the conduct of the study in the first two years of the project. Ms. Rosalina de Guzman is the assistant head of CLIMPC. She is involved in the preparation and issuance of El Niño/La Niña advisories, weather outlook, and seasonal forecast. She will participate in the translation of global climate forecasts into local climate predictions which is one of the information needed in the preparation of SCF. Mr. Ernesto R. Verceles is a weather specialist assigned at the CLIMPC. He is involved in the preparation and issuance of El Niño/La Niña updates, cli-
mate information and forecasts. He will participate in the translation of global climate forecasts into local climate predictions.
Dr. Aida M. Jose is the former chief of the CAB. As a local consultant of the project, she is involved in the overall analysis and interpretation of the data and information which will be vital in the preparation of the SCF. Leyte State University (LSU) Leyte State University is situated in Eastern Visayas, Philippines and is recognized as the center of excellence for instruction, research and development in agriculture and related fields including forestry in the Visayas. It provides its students with the highest quality of scientific knowledge to serve the needs of the region. Its web address is http:// www.lsu-visca. edu.ph/.
Dr. Canesio Predo is an assistant professor (Resource and Environmental Economics) with the National Abaca Research Center. He is reviewing methods of valuing SCF and applying these methods to case studies in the Philippines. Ms. Eva Monte is an agricultural economics researcher at LSU. She will be working with Dr. Predo on the case studies and the development of tools and information packages on valuing SCFs. Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) The Institute is a government research institution engaged in long-term, policy-oriented research. Through the Institute’s activities, it is hoped that policy-oriented research on social and economic development can be expanded to assist the gov-
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ernment in planning and policymaking. An important goal of PIDS is to provide analysis of socioeconomic problems and issues to support the formulation of plans and policies for sustained socioeconomic development in the Philippines. Its website is http://www.pids.gov.ph/.
Dr. Celia M. Reyes is a senior research fellow at PIDS. Her expertise lies in econometric modelling and poverty analysis. She is applying this expertise to both farm and policy-level case studies in the Philippines. Ms. Jennifer P.T. Liguton is the director for Research Information at PIDS. She is involved in coming up with strategies to communicate the results of the Project’s studies to farmers and policymakers as well as to other stakeholders. Mr. Mario C. Feranil is the concurrent OIC vicepresident of PIDS and director for Project Services. He will be responsible, in partnership with Dr. Kevin Parton, for the monitoring and evaluation aspects of the project. Mr. Christian D. Mina is an information systems researcher at PIDS under the supervision of Dr. Celia M. Reyes. He will be working with Dr. Reyes on the case studies and the development of tools and information packages on valuing seasonal climate forecasts. South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) SARDI is a leading research and development institute that conducts innovative applied research and development to enhance the efficiency and economic contribution to South Australia’s industries on field crop, horticulture, livestock, and fishing and aquaculture as well as on pastures and sustainable resources, and natural resource management. Its website is www.sardi.sa.gov.au/index.html.
Dr. Peter Hayman is principal scientist for Climate Applications at the SARDI in Adelaide. As project leader for both the Australian and Philippine groups, he will draw together the inputs from economists, applied climatologists and farm advisers and will
actively be engaged in developing learning packages for intermediaries promoting SCFs. He will particularly be responsible for developing the information packages for endusers and will assist in the case studies in Australia. New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW/DPI) NSW/DPI is the largest provider of research and extension services to agriculture in New South Wales. It is a partner in the development of profitable, sustainable primary industries for New South Wales to ensure that primary industries have appropriate access to natural resources; communities benefit from the wise use of natural resources; and regional economies are enhanced. Its website is http:// www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/reader/dpi.
Dr. John Mullen is research leader for Economics Coordination and Evaluation at the NSW/DPI and adjunct professor at the Faculty of Rural Management at the University of Sydney. He is involved in the review of methods for valuing SCF and in the proposed case study in the rangelands of NSW. University of Sydney The Faculty of Rural Management has research strengths in agribusiness, farming systems and natural resource management. Improvements in the availability and use of seasonal climate forecasts clearly impact on all three of these areas. Its web address is http://www.csu.edu.au/.
Professor Kevin Parton is dean of the Faculty of Rural Management. He will concentrate on the relationships between the economics and psychology approaches to decisionmaking and valuation of SCF. Professor Parton will be involved in policy case studies in both Australia and the Philippines. Jason Crean is a postgraduate student at the University of Sydney and is currently undertaking a PhD on the value of climate forecasting in selected farming systems in eastern Australia. He has expertise in the economic modelling of farming systems and will be involved in the policy and farm level case studies in Australia. b