Intentions vs. Implementation of Philippine Economic Reforms Under Aquino Government, 1986-1992

Page 1

Philippine Institute for Development Studies

Intentions vs. Implementation of Philippine Economic Reforms Under Aquino, 1986-92 V. Bruce J. Tolentino DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES NO. 94-01

The PIDS Discussion Paper Series constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further revisions. They are being circulated in a limited number of copies only for purposes of soliciting comments and suggestions for further refinements. The studies under the Series are unedited and unreviewed. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. Not for quotation without permission from the author(s) and the Institute.

March 1994 For comments, suggestions or further inquiries please contact: The Research Information Staff, Philippine Institute for Development Studies 3rd Floor, NEDA sa Makati Building, 106 Amorsolo Street, Legaspi Village, Makati City, Philippines Tel Nos: 8924059 and 8935705; Fax No: 8939589; E-mail: publications@pidsnet.pids.gov.ph Or visit our website at http://www.pids.gov.ph

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ................................................ i.

1

The Recent Performance of the Philippine Economy

......

.......

......

The Agricultural and Rural Sector ............................. The Agricultural Content of Philippine Industry ................... Agricultural Employment, Value of Production and Exports ............. Agricultural and Rural Employment ......... . .................. Agricultural Exports ........... ....................... II.

The Literature and Analytical Framework

.......

,

"...

. . ...............

The New Political Economy ................................. The Political Economy of Agricultural Policy .................... The Political Feasibility of Policy Reform . ........................ Endogenous Policy Making ..... ......................... Policy Substance Plus Policy Process ................ The Bautista Framework ................................... HI.

The Record of Recent Economic Reforms in the Philippines

11 17 23 27 31 33

. . ..... ...........

.........

The Roots of the Economic Crisis ............................. The Bubble Bursts ....... , .............................. The Productive Sectors ................................... Agriculture as the Bulwark of the Economy ....................... Continuing Rural Poverty .......... ..................... The Marcos Economic Legacy ............................... The Aquino Government's Attempts at Reform ..................... The Analytical Sources of the Aquino-Era Reform Measures ...... The Policy Reforms ........... .......................... IV.

4

.....

34 35 36 37 37 40

. . ..

43

. . .

43 46 49 52 54 54 57 59 63

. .

Political Economy Aspects of Policy Reform Implementation in the Aquino Period ................................

74

The Record of Policy Implementation Lack of an Implementation Schedule

79 84

A. B. C.

. . . ......................... ...........................

Asp_ts of the Policy Reform Record ...................... lnad_uate Capacity for Reform ......................... The.,Influence of.... =th'e Iniernational Financial Community ': " " '":.. '. " ' 'ii' .. • ...

.

"

85 119 . . . 148

V.

The Outlook for the Successful Implementation of Policy in the Ramos Administration ........................... Policy Initiatives, !uly 1992 to March 1993 .... The Promotion of peace ............... Tile Strengthening of the Government's Capacity The Democratization of Private Sector Influence "Empowerment" and the Balancing of Influence Balancing the Odds in International Finance ..... A Concluding Note ..... . ..................................

References

........................

......

Reform 154

. . . ................. : ................... for 12conomic Refornl ...... ..... ; ............... . ........ ..... ...... .......... .........

...........

.......

155 158 163 167 170 172 174 176

LIST OF TABLES

! 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Growth Rates of GDP and Subsectoral GVA, 1981-91 ............ . .... Value and Share of I:'roduction by industrial Origin .................. Growth in Real GDP, Total Agriculture and Fisheries GVA .......... . . . Shares of GDP by Sectoral Origin ............................. Agribusiness Elements in Manufacturing. ...... .................. Business and Employment Multipliers by Sector, Philii_pines . . .......... Shares of Total Value of Crop Production by Crop ............ . ..... Shares of Total Value of Livestock Production by Major Commodity ....... Shares of the Value of Fisheries Production by Major Subsector .......... Agricultural Employment, Philippines, 1970-1991 ................... GVA, Employment and Labor Productivity in Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Total Exports and Agricultural Exports ..... ....... . . . ........... Current Account and Public Sector Deficits ....................... External Debt . ; . .................... ............ • • .... Initial Policy Pronouncements of President Corazo,_ Aquino . ............ Selected Economic Policy Initiatives of the Aquino Administration ......... The Post-EDSA Period: An Enumeration of the Major Events . ........... Economic Policymaking in the Aquino Administration, 1986-1992 ......... Major Natural Calamities and Other Exogenous Events, 1986-92 .......... Key Economic Officials, 1986-92 ............................ . Key Officials and their Backgrounds, 1986-92 .....................

5 12 16 18 19 22 24 26 28 29 30 32 45 47 64 69 77 80 112 131 137

LIST OF CIIARTS

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Self-Rated Poverty, Philippines, 1983-91 ........... . ...... ........ Losers vs. Gainers, Philippines, 1984-91 . . . . ..... ................ Real Growth of GDP and Major Industries ........................ Shares of GDP by Sector, 1976-91 ............................ Agribusiness Components of Manufacturing, GVA .................. Meier: The Policy/_ormation Process ..... ................. .... Meier's Policy Formation Process Modified ....... .......... . ..... Bautista's Analytical Framework ............... . ............... Direct Effects of the External Environment ............. .......... Terms of Trade ..................................... -... Rural Poverty: FIES vs Constant Rural Areas, 1961-1991 ..... ............ Philippine Structural Adjustment Measures, 1986-1992 ................

6 7 9 13 20 38 39 41 42 51 55 68

ktar.dLt7A993 D[il/L._L.l!t'g_g!_.latlon.

Intentions Economic

please

vs. Implementation of Reforms Under Aquino,

do not quole.

l'hilippine 1986-921

t

by V.

Bruce

J.

Tolentlao

2

Y,lmal _,a kl kara. Mood determlne_ 5late. 3 - Japanese

proverb

lntr lzcl/_on The and

Imperative

development

Presidency

reform

predecessor

After

the

twenty

he could than

was

FerdLnand

leader

fresh

who years

not

challenge

the

Marcos.

the

reform

his

imbued of national

policies

for

of

Corazon

1986.

"l'lle need

reason

has finally

promise

"to make

it had

economic

for broad

become

realized this

painfully

a new mandate renewal

and

was

now clearly

Research

Fellow,

Phl]ll_pine

Marcos great

Institute

again",

apparent

that No less

necessary

for

for I)evelopmen!

l_conomles, 1993. The

Studies.

3 Many.hours of dlscusshm wilh Mr. Shinlchi Nt)zt)e, Director of International Exchanges Dep ariment o[ Iht,, ll)F., gave me a unique window japanese history and policy iiiaking. Ills valmtble hlsighls are aclolowledged. I

was

recovery.

l Prepared during a fellowship at the lns lltule for Developing Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Tokyo, January-April generous support of the IDE Is gratefully acknowleged. 2

and

of Aqulno's

that

nation

to the

political

that he was In fact, part of the problem.

with

growth

Aqulno

for the overthrow

Filipinos

as President, and

and

ascendance

principal

The

fulfill

of Marcos

institute

upon

in February,

In [act

would

leadership,

• the arduous

the stralegles

was obvious

of the l*hlllpplnes

economic

not

to reform

the on

But while growth the

Ill 1986

it was clear

were the ultimate

specific

economic

veh|cles

of rapid

growth

the key

impetus

goals of reform,

toward

development

in agricultural

Yet

implemented

Philippines.

agricultural:based, Its

substituting

Industrialization the

treated

productivity

and

policy

Philippines'

inward-looking

has

(ISI).

was the paul and

fact"

non-farm

country

employment

strategy

recognized

a policy

countries

on

outward-oriented,

economies

and adopted in its

thepath

environment have

as

has not been

strategy kept

the

the pattern

of agricultural-based

generally

Such

neighboring

ISI to more

rural

development

the

sustainable

II), the mld-1980's

development

mix

and

as a "stylized

development

the agricultural-led

statements,

as

ol)je(-live.

already

While

recovery

mr, oh less transparent

outward-looking actual

economic

ultimate

for the accelerated

like the Philippines.

.even

that

literature

in the

tliat

persisted

turned

trade-dominated

official

of Importhas

rapidly

an

from

the

development

strategies. Certainly potentials year)

of the

Philippines'

pointed

Plans

since

agriculture

and

The plans

also decried

the

almost

acceleration

and the moderrdzatlon

of

declared

process

of:!both

agricultural

to the

of bledlum-Term

(five-

produced

output

of the

by

the

Philippine

the

dominant

contribution

4.

The

also

agricultural

particularly goals

of Industrialization,

oblivious

been

recognized

as policy

been

series

have

poverty,

not

The

have

to economic

the extent

have

that

low productivity

always

of the

1960s

rural sector

makers

strategy.

(M'I'DP)

the early

to the relatively

plans

policy

agricultural-based

Development

government the

the

the the

plans sector

generation

and Industrial

uniformly

(Sakal,

1989).

In the rural areas. reduction

of

Thus

of poverty,

the

of employment

production.

|

4

So far, eleven

Medium-Term

l')(.=veh_i_nR,nt Plans

have

been

formulated

' = Pig ew, /D92,_o.M'H)I tmd_:r i reside|it I:idel i_am0s. For reviews the MTDPs until :the 1987-92 MTDP, see Sakal (1989) lind Miralao (1988). 2

b), of

•

The recordof development and povertyalleviation in tilePh|iipl_ines over the past three decades Is however between the official objectives

eloquent

and the actual

economic development policy and strategy, the Philippines'

development

[esllnlony

record

[o the discrepancies

accompll_hn_ents

it is clear that any

of Philippine

Judgements about

have to be made with

care, principally

because of wide ggp_jd_at may be observed between:

• a.

planners/

policy makers

and lmplementors,

+b.

pronouncementsand

c.

planned

d.

policy Intentions and actual effects.

timetables

_. above,

Implementation between

care,

between

to provide In the

reform.

schedules,

some

Aquino

The discussion

since

outcomes

agricultural

and

Philippines.

Chapter

1986-92

rural

program period

process

Implementation

objectives

clearly

result

to

sector

and

2 of the paper

will

in Cl_apter 4.

record

focuses

many

set out

Chapter

our

from the review, with some notes and a general 3

emphasis

on the

of development. outcomes

The Is made

some

information

on the

experience

of

framework

3 will describe activities

on selected

analysis

5 summarizes

comparison

factors

the

Chapter

tile

of

other

economic

we expand

In depth,

on

with some

Since the set of reform

Is large and complex, Illustrate,

administration's

with economic

recent

of the reform process. of reforms.

of the gaps as

1 provides

the

and

explanations

strategy

from

The rest of Chapter

our discussion

government's

of an agricultural-based

policy reform

policy.

learned

observed

of policy

government

reform

implementation

flllltOUll.ced 0ctlD_ns with ilcLuid__il.ctlotl_

comparison

the

and actual

as

record of Implementation

organize

policies,

This paper attempts

enumerated

with

actual

of

from

which

attempted

the

the will

the Aquino

aspects

the lessons outlook

aside

in

of the

process

of

that may be

of the prospects

for successful economic

reform

in the new government

of the PhUlpplnes

led by

President Fidel V. Ramos.

I.

The

Recent the

The the World

PhlUpplnes Development

_. decade real

per capita

1980s

economic

1990).

In fact,

economy

optimistic

- they

. The

things

thought

indicate

little

Stations, themselves were

shrank

Inc.

War

get worse.

tllat people's

optimism

for

reported

as poor the year

of the

to most

averaged

{Chart

the

that

middle a period

in

While

of the

so dismal

and

II experience Opinion

were

1985

1985

4

- the l).

at their

lowest

future.

For

fully

in

Many

the

actually

felt

ever that

the

example,

in the

clearly

population's

- and that there

that they

saw

were

time

tracked

the

and

better.

first

"/4% of

in the

(Intal

198Os

Filipinos

last

economic

3.5%,

of the

most

the

tile 1970s

3.396 In 1981-85

whlcl_ have

tl_at 5695 thought 2).

that

over

respectable

decade

(Table

polls

immediate in July

over

to go was up and for the

1984

spirits

economy

a relatively

third

country

stood at $750 at yeaz--e_nd 1992.

to zero, and was at minus

1), and

be/ore:(Chart

middle-income

Philippine

analysts.

the only way

post-World

just couldn't

outlook

the

through

economy

Philippines'

close

GNP per capita

of growth

gro_h

Economy

as a medium-sized,

1992.

disappointing

Philippine

they

record

the rate dropped

Power,

very

Report

The

has been

Philippine

Is classified

of

Performance

Social

was Just Weather

population were

w_rse-off

rated than

-

Table 1

Growth

Rates of GDP and Subsectoral GVA, 1981-91

"Ye;_i;.... GDP'= -I=l-it-ind-uetrial origin Agricultui-e IIndustry Services Fisheries & I -(1985 Mi#_onP) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19'1_

1987 1988

Forestry I (I985 MilrK)/1P)

347 3.57 187 -7,32 -7.31 3.4;)

4.L_8' 6.25

(1_ I_ll_on P)

3.81 060 -338 -093 -1.88 3.68 "'

3.22 3.24

1989 6.06 ....... 3.01 L, 1990 2.42 0.48 1991' -O,t_J 0,70 Sourco: 199'2NSCBSlall_licolYealbook

S

(1983 Afillion P)

4.65 2.48 1 52 -11.51 -15.75 2.30!

_.37 7155 8.21 1.81 : -3,25

1,92 6 82 5 56 -6,53 -2.08 4.23'

,S_j 693 .

5.97 4,04 = 0 04

Chart 1

6

Chart2

Losers vs. Gainers, Philippines, 1984-91 0

............

50

.

............................

30

..

.................

° ..........

: .... " ....................

"""

-+--- ....

...... IN"'----.-._ iO__.__,._. i .,...

20

........

10

"_ =- ........... "_

.......................

0

--I I_

=

I---+I---I

CO '

03 _

-'J

::E

¢:0 °

.... CO ,.L ::E

I....... CO _

• <:3

I............I.... CO

CO

¢4

,,

I...... OO

I......

I--'

¢T1

13"1

_

Z

I ,_L

Survey Dalea ,

LL..I m.+._,__...Ga!ner.s

- ............

•

...... "1:-.

7

........

._

'

No Chango-•

.

•

...... ........ losers

I

Tlle

llealnnlngofJhe

llo[!_X.l_l_2_cJll.

the population

front

"people

A¢lulnc_ was widely

the so-called

power

of

1986 was seen by most cff ihe Flllpln_o i_Ol_ulati()n as the answer to their

deliver

of. the

administration

February

President

surge

of llle

Corazon

prayers.

on the

entry

President

Iong-cltanted

Aqulno

The

of

seen as IIie i>erson voile could

"kleptocracy"

Hope and anticipationpervaded the atmosphere

revolution"

of the

Mattes

reghne,

surrounding Aquino's entry into

government.

2_he period

Roller-Coaster.

were

heady.

revolution"

negative

Pesos)

-7.3% (Table

boomed.

And,

evident

surge

growth

the

fled

1). Pent-up

two

and

Don_estic 1985

demand

with

the govertm_ent

shackles

of crony

to three

activity

In February

of Gross 1984

first

In economic

Mattes

between

to 1989

most

The

from which

r_eal (1985

Indeed,

rapidly

privilege

and

Aqulno

the

=people

power

was ,_,,x)nderful

Product

(GDP)

and

investment

the

In 1988 retailing

the economy

monopoly,

The

from

6.25%

Consumption to free

to see.

recovered

stratospheric

unleashed.

moving

of the

after

1986

to a relatively

was

years

from

the

began

to

respond. The economic the economy relatively

boom

plunged

steeply

until

was sl_ort-llved,

into

decline

1988,

and

however.

As if riding

In 198.-1, abruptly again

droi)ped

recovering

to a minus

a

roller-coaster,

in 1986,

-0.99%

climbing

In 1991

(Chart

3).

Trade Thailand

and Balance

and even

In the Philippines In

1002

Thailand Phlllpphtes

the

has

Indonesia.

In 1982

was 3296, compared

ratio

and

of Pavnl.gllL_.

for

the

Plilllppines

Indonesia

,have

continued

(on tile

both patli

The

Phllipfdnes

Imports _th Ires

and

is less trade-oriented

exports

as a percentage

40% in Thailand grown

surpassed ()Iprimarily

and

to about 60%.

than

Tills

of GNP

,14% In Indonesia.

42')6, while indicates

Inward-looking,

that that

import-

of the

Chart 3

Heal _irowtrl of GDP and Major Industries 10

....................

!:....... --',\......... I

0

t "

_

'lit .....

i}.

t--t----t I'...

ilo

-<P-_--xx-_ o'l

o

xt-i.

"5

-10

_15

..................................

DZO

..............................

u_

GDP

,

-----I-J---

Agricult

,

.

......................

....... • .....

tire

Flsherie s& Forestry

.

...

Industry

---

<"_ .....

,

,

Services

substituting ISi

Industrialization

by tile

Philippines'

(ISI), even

neightx_rs

"newly-|ndustriallzed

countries".

The

imports

with

a highly

prone such

Philippines' distorting

to Balance BOP crises

ushered

trade

third

crisis

In 1969

precipitated

•and serious

episode

lasted

major

first

savings

years"

Real gross

and the

between

Titus

and

its exports.

controls

did

of the

highly

experience

1960s.

beginning

of the Peso.

of

Combined

War ii. Tt_e 1949-50

prog_'am

1965

status

the economy

the Pltilippines World

of the

the e_tviabLe

to make

devaluation

1963

abandonment

altained

combined

and trade

1970

the

outstripped

devaluation

Investment.

of recent

and

of the early

attempted

crisis

The

1960

In ]962.

A

The most recent

and its control

again

government bureaucratic foreign-sourced consequent

which

climbed

fell

pump-priming inherited

maintenance. borrowing Investment

were

and

during

also quite

savings

required

rate

In 1986

a heavy

burden

the

1970s

10

and early

to 1981

a

not

be

a great

- the

Savings

of

The crisis

to 1596 in 1984.

Aquh'lo

government folio_s_ed only

sustained

by

sea, ice, recovery

Ihal

1980s.

foreign

at 8 - 1096 of GNP.

but savings

of debt

induced

1973

3196 of GNP.

The

anal_,se s conclude

aid assistance

by

dropping

to 1988, could

along

1992).

ltlgh,

1-1% In 1985.

spending

Recent

et al.,

from 2196 to over

t() only

the economy

had

helped

(Lamberte,

saw tl_e national

to pump-prhne Tile

history

businesses

similarly

1980s

savings,

from 20% to 2596 of GNI > bet,,veen

economic

correspondingly

weakly.

National

unincorporated

Investment

Investment

quite

now

tile end of

exchange

decontrol

of 4 - 5%, rose sharply

households

years

since

face of

devaluation.

Savings:and

"good

this

(BOP) crises.

In the era of foreign

led to the

have

I_ave usually

intermittently

crisis

who

policy,

of Payments

in the

massive

inflows

deal of savings

Public

Investment

the and of and was

made possible by such external induced

by public activity

,The A_rlcultural The past

decades,

agriculture

forestry

fisheries

Philippines'

growing

its

will

(APS'I', 1986),

Such

has

been

experience.

like

-that

a shift

shift

industry in 1980

of production

taken

rentalned

tip by

a

share

Yet the

This

South

pattern

Korea Asia

as

the

and

economy indicative

of the

the

areas,

and

and

on the agricultural

sector

of the

Philippine

economy's

such

_hat over

not

the

international

in GDP tlas

to 2296 In the most agriculture

3596, the contribution

recent to

While of services

time

of

sector

of development development dropped

from

five-year

industry the

thas

more

agricultural,

of

services.

of the

Indonesia.

_he paltern

agriculture

those

or of Its recently

with

fact"

not go from

unlike

Talwan,

Industrial,

"stylized

Iow-i_roducllvily

In the rural

is quite

- Thailand

be consistent

seventies did

at about

resided

Through

the agricultural,

of the

would

of 2696 in the latter

has

agricultural.

2195 to 2896 of Its GDP from 2),

from

as

the

and

is, to sl_ifl In structure

originate

observed

Indeed,

was

was

the Plllllpplnes

analysts

average

slack

investment

Moreover,

In Southeast

by some

production

that

(Table

dependence

to Industrialize

rural

half of all employnlent.

between

sector

continuing

is basically

about

neighbors

Interpreted

failure

corporate

et _d, 1992). 5

of Ihe population

NIC neighbors

The been

majority

to •produce

and

raplclly

economy

has provided

has continued

(l.amberte,

and private/

and Rural Sector

Philippine

three

resources,

an

period.

instead

contribution

to GDP rose from

the of 3696

to over 4496 in 1991 (Chart 4).

5 The so-called ('onL,_lLlejltill'LLy H.k'I_(_!2LILe_IS o! lnvesime._ where public Investment "CroWds-ill" pi'ivate ijpcestme_t. A. Chll_ber a|ld l_l. Daiiami (1990) observe ti_at public •infr_astrticture spendil]g complemei_ts ln-ivale invesunent, but public lnvesllnellt In pi'oductlve sectors cro_sLi out private spelldillg. 11

T,_ble 2 Value 'Year

' ' (%) 1976. 1977 1978 ,L, 1979 1980 1981 1982

"

---

1"984 i985" 1986 1'_)87 1988 1989 "" 1990 1991 Sou!ce;

of Production

Share In GDP Agriculture, i Induslry Fisheries & Forestry

....

-_

andShare

(_,_)'

Services

GDP .....

(=,'-)

(Current

Mm P)

27.81 27.22 ..... 26.66 25.53 25.12 24.89 23.35

34,08 34 43' " 34.49 35.36 38.79 "' 39.17 38,8_3 "-

38.12 3835 38 85 39 10 36 10 3594 37.82

22.37

39.23'"

3u_.40i.. 3890 -

24.75 37,91 '24,58 35 07 23,95 3458 23,93 .... .... 34 6 r' _,_, 22.07 35 5i 22.70 35 42 _ 21.96 35.-11_ 21118 34.29 1991,

by Industrial

1992

37.34 ,40135 4'i48

...... 41 4! 41 42 44

-

-' ":

,12 r_.3 88 95 45

Value of Pr0d'uction Ag_'icul|ure. Industry Fisheries & Forestry _(CurrentMill

135272 :''37615 ,'154226 ' 4i982 177669 .... 473"60 217543 55543 243"740 61219 281596 70092 317177 74055 524481 571883 608887

82545

"- 129824 14055-_4 145807

P)

46095 53100 61281 76934 94,545 110309 123154

:

14480

198819 _ =: 200548 _210528

163927 i035/5 ........ 210009 235956"'-262342

S-lailslical Yem.books. Nali()l_a]-_lalisilcai-C,,oofdiri-a/ion

Services

(Curretit Mill (Current Mall

P)

685068 ....._-025.19.......... 925181 --i074280 ' 1238686

lZ

Origin

2:_7398 ;28,i93_327667 377173 424712

Board

P)

51562 59144 69028 85066 87985 101195 --i 19968

141 31

195838 230781 25255'2

2R,3743 334067 387485 461450 550593

Chal t 4

Shares of GDP By Sector, 1976-91 100.00 90.00 IlO.OC) 70.00 60.00

so.oo 40.00 30.00 ZO.00 10.00 0.00

iI

Agriculture, Fishery kJ Industry and Forestry

13

Ill Services

T

Tile lnabll|ty

of the Industrial

services

and

delayed

abandonment

through

the

to

be

agricultural

19S0s

sectors

IS! strategy

196Os,

Thus

only

tmcompetltive.

In

The system

the

not only

whole,

making

strategies

sector

the

has

weak

of Thailand

earlier

over

the

stages

sectors were

shrinking

light, In

agriculture,

has continued

constraints

and

of t.his system economy

has as a

competitive

War

in tile sense and

to domination qtllte

Illat while

growth

of 6-7%

over

296. The

barely

of "I'aiwan

of the

1985.

at

and

South

by the

rapidly.

has

tile Industrial sector

grow, albeit at a low rate of about 396 in 1972 Pesos_(lamberte,

Korea

industrial

Domestically,

Philippines

the agriculture

flsl_eries

t.he agricultural

continuing

occurred

experience

and

While

lagged

the shift

period

forestry

standards.

experienced

but

1984

much

countries

outward-looking,

of tile economies

by agriculture,

favorable

Imposed

the

internationally

of Ule Philippine

Philippines

agriculture-dominated

In a somewhat

thus

the growth

have

of tile development

the

sector

continuation

East Asian

tile

Korean

developing

- and

to

than

Philippines'

protracted

Phlllpph!es'

decade,

rapidly

painful.

Indonesia

past

In tile post-war

however,

and

of the

and

market

adjustment

by ASF.AN and

also dominated

sector

of

difficult

of growtit

been

stynded

process

all the more

year

were

but also

"]'he rate

sectors par

stunted,

in

industrial

has in turn

The

more

to tile

popular

the country's

of protection

much

attributed so

domestic

costs on the rest of the economy. thus

to grow

l_as been

of the and

protected

sector

been

and

seen

services

continued

to

1991).

?

Even

a

agricultural, is a critical

cursory

forestry

examlnatloli and fisheries

segment

on an underestimation.

better

appreciated

:.

and

' ,

.

'..

possibly

...

•

.,,

ways: tile

econonty.

14

Oil

the

contribution

to it cotlclusion

Yet even

fisl_er!eS

of

that

tile

tills conclusion

of agriculture

(1) by sei_aratlng

artisanal

•

data

s,,_lll lead

The full impact

In threemore

also

tile

sector

of the Philippine

based

forestry,

of

may

sectors,

sector may

lm revealed

the coJitribution (2)

tl_e

be and.

of the

through

a

disa_gregaUon

of the output of tile industrial

examlnaUon

of the Pltllipplnes'

$eo,aratlng ,, forestry nation's been

to overall

reserves forced

particularly

sector

forestry,

the

forestry

shifted

of current

value

be reported

of

forest

separately

when

•policy the

the

as

rate

is

of the Given

agriculture

Income

and

accounts

exploitation,

fr_mt tl_e performance

has

shift

of forestry,

between

the

policy

This

growth

national

resource

of the

and

exploitation.

the exclusion

itt adjusting

(3) by an

to negative

dwindled,

than

development

as the difficulties market

with

and

contribution

positive

have

1980s,

greater

The

front

rather

to late

sectors,

Matrix.

products

conservatLon mid-

(I-0)

'l._EL_erle_.

forest

Is consistently

"true"

sltould

has

attd

In the

directions

as well

reflect

growth

to emphasize

tire opposing

Artlsanll

of woodland

evident

agriculture

Input-Output

Forestry.jand

sector

and services

the

to

data

of agriculture

on a.nd

fisheries.

The growth

reasoning

can also be applied

municipal

fisheries

bmxs and Manii_a sector even

same

closed

Bay and

sector

sector fisheries

the

to

fislteries.

of tile

of forestry

on

total

It Is evident

that

the ax'tisanal,

Pl_liippines

have

been

declared

one

two

other

l ishlng

erratic,

with

or

quite

by -18% In 1984 performance

impact

seasons

has In f.'tct been _

on

shottld

thus

(Table also

I_ IS

bays. growth

The

tire

sector coastal

overexplolted.

in particular behavior

as higii

Clearly

consider

i

become

for areas

3).

sector.

JlILI_I_RI" Y 81_

tias

agricultural

Thus

distress, of

the

a different

like

fisheries

as 20% in 1981-1t2 analysis

or

alld

of agricultural

framework

for

the

....

•

i

Table 3

Growth In Real GDP, Tolal Agrlcullure and Fisheries GVA .......Ye_- .........

GDP

" "I A0ricLiltu_e_ ' Fish,erie'." Fisheries & GVA Fo¢estfy GVA

I

'"

19_ ,98_ 1982F

,

060

1.99

-3 3e

8 21

198.4

-7,32

-0 93

• 1B,7"8

19B5i

-7,31

- 1.el) ......

8, 19

_9_

342

3,ee"'

1:'987'

4'7B

3 22

-10 3-7i

1968

B2__

324

:: 24t _

1989

6 061

3.01

• 199o ,

"" 362

3e-, :: 2o.o_

1,87

_983

'

376_-

i ....

242 •

o.49

1991 -0 99 0' 70 Source: 1992 NSCB Slatistical Yearbook

16

_e_ _

=545

' o _61 2 97

The

A_J'lcultural The

Content

Importance

underestimated

primary°

of

due

contributions.

to

The

pervasive

the

of

contributions

to total

of Industry,

by Itself,

contributed i)atterl_

at least is

5).

This

the

large,

like

not

the

transition

manufacturing

manner,

the

sectoral only share

examination

agriculture

of

of the

Is much

a

a large

proportion,

subsector

to

of

out

to

more

l_ldustry, output

be reported

of the corporatlo[i

thus

over

(Table

have

et al.

1986).

pi-ocessing, S and

be counted

that

many

Chart

output

of

firms

production

may

This

wliich

agrlbuslness

in the total

24%

1976.

the farm-level

multhaatlonai

as lumped - and

since

I)y food

output

because

subsector

manufacturing

(Chenery,

be dominated

large,

subsectoral

averaging

max])' count_'ies

be an ullderestimate, of the

of

the manufacturing

to Industrialization

turJ_s

may

breakdown

that

even

Del Monte

of the

as Industrial,

output,

finding

Is supported

and

and food

Corporation

Philippines

A

exl)ertc_lce

plantations

corporations

Miguel

• that

31% to 45% of ma_lulacturiitg

operations

agrlbuslness

reveals

on

often

Incorporate

Yet a closer

fronl

Integrated

agricultural

largest

Cola

nmy

a

as %1% of Industrial

completed

Dole and

This

As

tile

figure

Integrated

1991.

6196 to as much

has composed

data

such

4).

shows

contributes

with

Furthermore, which

Added

consistent

successfully

In

Is

reporting

forestry

lqanul'i_clurlllg.

already to

statlsilcs

economy

will reveal.

GrOss Value

1976

I)llilippllle

and

and services

Dominance

period

fisheries

28% ('Fable

Tile

the

the

21% and

glance

the

of

Reported

a first

over

design

as industry

than

In

production.

is between

categorized

agriculture

agricultural,'

farm-level

zgrlculture data

of Phll_d_st_,.

and and

by the

bush_ess

conglomerates

manttfacturh_g. its subsidiaries

B-Meg Feeds,

among

17

observation

These

Include

Magnolia others.

of the Philippines'

are

based

the

international

Corporation, The other

on

agriculture, giant

Campofrlo, large

food and

San Coca-

•

,-

_

..... .

,,_&,,, _

-_"'o °

"_

_j

•

q

_. q

_

_ _

q,_.

_#

'_

_

i

I

F---"---" I

L_

I

i

_

i

_

_"

I

......

_

:

_

.

i

I "" o

'_)

m

0 or)

I.JJ

E

_

_ "- _5 _.=__

O o _

_

0 _ o c.J _ _

"

_

,:::) _:::_o

"_ "_. _ '=. ":'_'_

I

o o o,0

q

_

,,_:_ _::;_c_,,_,,_;_,_::_,_:;:__

_

r_

_

r_

_ _

_ o o o o o o o o ,-, o ,'-,o o =,,o °_

i_

_

°° 0 o o _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _,o o'"

18

"

"

.......

"Table 5

.......

Agrlbusiness Elements In Manufacturing Breakdown of Manufacturing-GVA, % Year

Food ,:

Beverages

Tobacco

%

%

%

;--C)lher"Agr]- Olhac Manu. Relaled laclures %

%

1976

31.27

3 98

4,79

11.29

46 67

1977

31.11,

4.37

4,74

11.71

48.0,8

1978

31.15_

4.21

4,45

13,42

46,77

30 30

3 86

4, 10 •

12 61

49.14

15.81

'42.44

1979 . .

=..-:

_

1980

=_J

3494 .

--.

1981

.

,

39.06

,

44,77

.,.

45 90 _13,69 ,_'2,58

1989

41,74

3.41

14.71

3888

3,40

1285

39186

4.19

3.1B

11.20

39.27

4 49

3.46

9 54

37.75

9,79

36 19

354

,

J,

4 81

J

-..

e

4,62 L

11.61 •

source__'Esttmates iiom

4,67

data in the1991

19

=:

36.2B -

,

11.46

37,58

3.30

1251

37, 82

L

4.56

3981

--

3 63

=

2.91 ,•

1991

.....

3,61 • ......

4,75

41.20

39.84

r

,

1988

16.12 .,

4,57 -

199(3

3.33

,

42, 15 .

......

•=

. 39:781_,,, .4.o9

liN_14

1987

_

3.94 =

1986

,

3.77 ,

1983

3,21, •..

36.95

1982

,

3 59 :

......

1985

.

275

-

12.34 ,

_

3899"

,,

1245

N_3CB Stalisl_cal Yealbook

40.32

Chart 5

Agrlbuslness Components of Manufacturing GVA

2O 10

2O '

i

agricultural-based Purefoods

firms

Corporation

Bottlers Pl_ilippines,

include

and

llepublic

Flour

Its subsLdiaries,

Vitarich

A third

melhod

of agriculture

Input-output

(I-O) table of the Phlilppix_e ecof_omy.

the

between

processing

sugarcane

products

fruits and vegetables,

sector

summarized

investments the

greatest additional

blorgan

Morgan's

and

products

lnlerindustry

about

90 percent

aresold

directly

sector. business

levels of business

activity

peso of business

Indicate

multipliers.

sectors...

In the economy.

purcl_aser

crops"

of primary

coconut

- which

and include

This ind|cates

following

by

the additional

l_lorgan

business

In response

Thus

these

to an additional

sectors

sectors

activate

in response

The food and feed processLng livestcx-k and poultry.

are

activity

and nmtural resources

In the rest of the economy

21

raw

The tile food and feed

esllmaled

in tile economy

In the sector.

multiplier,

indicate

from other

In fresh form.

multipliers"

Tlne agrl¢tll!urM

highest-ranking

Thus

of these commodities.

and employment

In a particular

not

recently

estimates

of rice, corn,

to households

processinll

that may be generated

has the second-lllghest

is in fact the

(1991)

linkages

Note that fully 5696 of the "other

In Table 6. These mt,ltipllers

or employment

of the

"... has ._ i_lx,ot;ll role In pt_rchilsil_g

labor, services

- buying

broad scope for value-added "business

of the

since It quantifies

also turns out to be Ihe most Important

production,

The

In this report,

13% of lls Input costs are for transfx_rtation."

agricultural

enormLty

"l'l_ismethod

for the l_lXllipplnes.

from farms and

sector

Pepsi-Cola

Is by an analysis

c_m be shown,

sector has some of the most lml_rtant

For instance,

have

the sectors

and feed prc wesslng

food products

subsidiaries,

of tile sectors but als¢_ breaks _hese down Into lalpuls.

such an analysis

that the f_d

the

to the l+hllil)t_hle economy

of the three mentltmed

only the final outputs

performed

its

Corporation,

of appreclall,_g

contribution

the lnterlinkages

and

and so fortt_.

TJ_e I-0 Table.

more comprehensive

Mills

the to an

Industry

Food arid feed

T able 6

Business

and Employment Multipliers By Sector, Philippines

..... Sector

Business Multiplier

Rank

Employment .Multiplier

Rank

1 Rice

3_41

4

1,41

16

2 Corn

3,24

7

1.33 •

!9.

3 Coconut

3 64

3

1,54

14

4 StJgar

3 .,3..5.

5

1,4,=_

15

5 Oliver Crops,

3.00

12

1,37

17

6 Livestock & Poultry

3.77

1

2,05

12

7 Agrl Servi_ 'ces

3.02

11

1,35

18

8 Fishing

2.95

13

1,59

13

2.47

17

2.42

10

10 M!nlng.

1.60

,19

3,89

5

11 .F. ,ood,/Feed P.rocessinrj

3.75

2

17.52

1

!2 Manufacturing

2,51 .....

16 ..

5.74

4

13 Fertilizer & Pesticides

2 35

18

6.29

3

14 Constr_uclio.n

292

15

3.25

7

15 Ut!tlties,

3,21,,

9

7, "tO,

2

3.24

8

2,48

9

,17 .Ocean Transport .

2.93

14

3.43

__

18 OIher Transport

328

3,19

•

19 Services

3.06

10

4, 17

•

9 Logging

,m

,.

16 Rail and Road

=l

....

20 Households

Source; Morgan, 1990.

22

.....

6

. .

2.31

.,,

6 ii

B

11

.

processing otl_er

also

generates

greater

levels

of employment

Em01ovment.

A striking

commodities. 1980s

even

the

production

most

more

and Ex!_tts

agriculture

diversified value

as dramatically

12%, and

that

as the structures

fl._herles

In

16% In I080.

the the

structure on

prt_luctlon

of agricultural

_f

the

dependence

of ai_ricultural

of tl_e value

and

Is

from

ASI_AN nelghl_ors

to 54%0 21% and A further

not

of the

livestock

were 57%,

Philippine

shares

fast-growing

crops,

of Production

has

in the last decade

of

slightly

output

that

of the

shares

of

A breakdown

shows

changed

Value

feature

agricultural-based

traditional through

the

production

have

not

of the Asian

NICs, nor

Phllll_l_lnes. total

of

The

value

of

In 19Âś)1 the shares

respective agricultural

had changed

only •

18%, respectively.

disaggregatlon

of the

value

of agricultural

production

is even

revealing:

Crops. changed

The corn-position

though

remain

to

be

commodities and

the

1980s

paddy,

grew

(Table

coconut,

provided corn

of the value 7).

of agricultural

Tile largest

sugarcane

and

63% of all Crop value from

2,.1% In 1983

crop

and bananas

dropped

_.

slightly.

Shnllarly

concentration

also

livestock

has come

sector 8).

In 1983

in

with

the

to crop

bananas.

in 1991.

pr(_luctlon

Together,

In fact, the

to 28% tn 1991.

barely

these

five

contribution

The contribution of coconut,

of

of corn sugarcane

"

crops,

livestock

to be much

the respective

protlu_'tion

contributors

also grew from 9% In 1983 to 12% In 1991, while the shares

('Fable

than

sectors.

Agricultural

paddy

relatively

there and

poultry

more

dominated

shares 23

has been

of hogs

a tendency

sector.

and

by

Over hog

chicken

toward the

1980s,

,'rod poultry (plus

more

chicken

the

output eggs)

II

24

o

25.

I Table 6

Shares of the Total Value of Livestock Production, By Major Commodity "ye_'i1983

J Ca-,abao =caltle. i_ % % 3,1.6'

j -HogsL" ! %

8,11

Goats ,, iI %

3489

096

.

I984

Dairy, J Chicken % % 000

31.75

-= _ .--

3.38

839!

36 49

.=

1985

3,70

881

1986

3,28

9,66

1987

3.8Z

8.-70 J,

•

,

.,

42,11

J

_

096

:

7,51 - .....

1 09 _=

Ducks Jl'Ch_cke"Eggs J - DUCkEggs % % %

.

: ,

12 _3--_ ;

0.67

=-

0 14

31.12

6,29

11.911

1.19

0 10

2529

4 78

1231

094

39 61

1 40

0 28

28,80

4 56

10,47

1 84

41.6_1

1.38

0 25

28 74

3 72

10.25

i.40

I,,

1988

3.40

8,37

43 05

I 44

0 24

27.28

3 77

10 60

1 86

-'_;989

3.62

7.08

4841

I 31

0.20

25, 15=

3,03,

9.68

1.52

_99o _4_o._ I ,. 8.9,_ 4_,28 ........ _,!.28._ 0,7 199, 311 5o9, 41,9_ 2o._ Ol4 source:

Estlmates

based

on daln

In the

1991.

26

2_:_7. 2 3G2o ,_

1992 _Nsc[_

statistical

• ;.8 9 . 1._ 5 7o_ _.__1 Yearbooks

were 35% and 4596. chicken

dominant,

col_trl|)ution

In 1991 these

the output

shares

from

were 42% and 4196. caltle

Cilliil_ao,

illld

shift ill the slrtlt'lure con_merclal

and

ixlcreased.

In

aquaculture

fisheries

alld iiItlnil'll_ill aquaculture

1983

lishetles

the

have

respec'iive

('l'abie 9).

falleil,

shares

while

lind dll)Pllt'd

small.

The conlril)utlOllS

tllal (if il/iUiliilllure

of cotnmercial,

were 29%. -lq% and L:I%. In Iqgl

fisllerles

Tile

and ih,est_'k, there lilts been a definite

of the fisheries sect(Jr

arlisallal

hogs and

have drc)pped.

dLic_S

of goats, dairy and duck eggs Ilave renmil_ed quite

Flsh_.Fies. 17nllke tile cases _if cl,ps

With

t)f ilas

municipal

and

shares cJf t'{imlnercllil

the

to 24% alld :17%, while Ihe co|lti-ibulioll

oF

had risen to 39%.

,Agricultural ,:and Rural Employlllent Over the past two decades forestry)

production

and employed absorbed

contributed

Close to one-half

44% of to total hlbof

population has

has

seen

growth,

population.

the stunled

agricultural

the

agricuhural

about

(along

one-quarter

of the econmu)',

forced

to shelter

has thus stagnated

per capita agrlcuhural

10).

and

output,

In 1991 the sector

with tile relatively

force. Combined grmvth

with fisheries

of all economic

of the lala_r force (Table

sector

I.abor productivity

Real (1985 Pesos)

primary

rapid

paitlcul.uly more

rate of

of industry,

and

more

and even declined

of ihe

(Table

11).

GVA smls P16,528 in 1980 and was P15,559

ha 1991. A basle opportunities agricultural however lhis

indicator

of the

for employment

economy's - !'Jarticularly

to non-agricultural

not occurred

phenonlenon

mport-substltuthag

tllen

country's

ixldustrhdtzatlon.

is its capacity

In being

industrial

in tlae l_hilippines. to the

health

Ranis and Stewart

('oxllllHxlng

2t

to shift

occupations.

This

(1989)

entrapment

The ISI strategy

/

able

to

Ilas created

generate

labor shift

from has

llave ascribed

In a strategy a dualistic

of

T_ble 9

Shares of the Value of Fisheries Production, By Major Subsector

'

Yeai-

I co,,_m,,,c,_,,, .... Mu,_,c,pa,l_I Aqu,_,,uie %

%

1983

28.91' 1 ....

•

,

'

'

22.53

?_4,46

5026

2528

198,5

25.42

48,25

28.33

1986

25, 10

47.02,

27.88

24.80

46.16

2904

26.29

43 13

_

.....

1988 '

48.56 ,,

1984

1987 . ==

-

4,

%

1989

"

'''

''

--i

30.58 ' '

24.3_

3o.49!

36._2

1990

23.97

39.191

36.84

1991

23.79

36._

39.23

Source: Estimates on"_Jalain 1991 NSCB Slattstical Yearbook

.28

Table 10

Agricultural Employment, Philippines 1970 ,. 1991, In Millions Y_/"

Total Employm enl _

AgriCuliu'rai Sector + EmlJloyllieNt Number % of Total Employment

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

10,73 11,58 12,09 12.71 13.08

5.61 5,61 6,34 6,73 7.07

52.30 48.40 52,42 52.99 54,03

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

13,44 14.45 14.55 15.74 16.73

7.08 7,60 7,28 8.12 808

52.64 52.59 50.02 51.58 48,27

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

16.79 17.63 16.73 18.54 18.55

8.67 9.05 9.31 9,63 9,55

51.65 51.33 51.73 50.96 49,66

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

18.97 19.63 20 80 21.50 21.85

9.74 10.20 9,73 9 92 9.90

49.44 49.77 48_53 4678 45.18

1990 1991

22,53 2298

9.98 10 03

44,94 45,0l

SoU_CO: 1991 StaltslLcal Ye_utx'_ok,Nahon_ Slalisllcal (_ordmaling f.3oard

Tablo 1 1

GVA, Employment and Labor Productivity In Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Year

....

ne,ql AgdmJll,,_l ' }TmpIoyment In ('_fossVnl|le Ad_l_3'(l A|)tlc;HlltJl_. Fi._ reties afld Forestry

i at_r P:ndtJctivity

i

"

,

1980

143295 00

_367

. 16527.6"8

1981

148749 O0

9 05

t6436 35

1982

149641 O0

9 3t

16073.15

1983

.,1445_86.00

1984

143247 OO

9 55

14999.69.

1985

1405.5.4.00

9 74

14430 60

1986

.iJ

.....

, !45.72500 ......

9.53

10.2_0_..

•

15014 12

14286 76

1987

150414.00

9.73

15458 79

1988

155292 (30

9.92

156.5,444

1989

159964 OO

9 90

16157 98

1990

160734 CK)

9 98!

16105.6 !

1991

t61859 O0 , ,

CB Statistical Yearbooks

3O

-

tO 40

15558.88

economy growth,

where

the

modern,

but not Jobs. Such

Metro-Manila

area, which

lllgllly

development

half of all of manufacturlng's

that

the Philippine non-farm

economy's

flourish

with

AIzrict,ltural

agricultural

;llritulture

hi

- lexllles

in the

of the country's further

abundance

rural

:lctlvlties

some

concentrated

(1990)

greatest

to nurture

and

however,

GDP.

observes

of labor

non-farm

- the

enterprises

Ihat primarily

multiply

-

and

growth.

serif.n" t¢l the ecoliollly

lli¢._ past

two decades.

exp(irts

lias howevttr

were d¢lilllil_lill,

lhlil

lil tile liiipol'l and lilU-iiitlllS. value.

these ar_ diila

Is hiw-llll_lil. Titus

(_heiiih'ai

Ih¢? lliillllil

COlllOlll "l'ilestt

(if

feriillzt?r

is iht

iJl I}lilliillllii¢_

t'illillll')"S tlUllilll.%

llirllcSl

rcllilll'tt

at of

greail),.

accoulltilig

of iii=l)Orled

i'l)liltiil

_ii)' lilt#

IlllUlilfill'iUli2tl

changed

of agriculture gr(iss

has remahied The proporliofi

with its gi'flss vlilue

In 1991 Ihecoiiiribuilon

hi general,

least 6096 of Ihelr

GDP over

the cotllilly's

exports

has Io lie lnlliOrlt_ll. l'omi]ared

=t tlllrd

B,iutlsta the

of tile iigricllltural

of total gross exports. Note

wlth

productivity

of total

products

1970 agricultural

1_-).

sector

been

has provhled

Exports

olie-quarter

agricultural

value-added.

sized, htlxn'-Intensive

The ¢cliltrlbuthlil about

lias ftirther

sector - was not enabled

the small and medium

sector

now itct'¢)unts for _llllnlt

and

rural

¢al)ilal-Jntensive

In

J'or 5696

was only

1796 {Table

llipuis,

PhiiiptMne

lllai¢n" li=.l_lil which illlrtculiure

l_'x|l(lll_i

ill

lli=llorled

i_r(iti$

ililluts

is low, lerllis of ill

--

.

qL

"

•

Table 12

Total Exports .... Yeai; .........

and Agricultural

TolalExpons

..... J -' Total •Agrlcullural ....J "---AgdcOlluraJ--

(FoB Mill US$) 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986_ 1987 1988 1980 '1990 ' 1991 Source: 19_)i

.

I

Exports (F-(_B Mill US$)

1142 57BB 5720 5021 5005 5391 462g

'

Exports

Total Exlx_rts J Exports as %o1 ' =,_'

644 ..... 2262 -. • . 2502 _L 2060 1966 2107 .... 151'0

4842 1473 5720 1582 ..... 7074 174"_ 7B21 " 2392 E}'1'86 14i6 • . , .=, 8840 1476 1991 I_lSCi3"Stntisllcal Yearbooks

56.39 39 08 ., 43.74 41.03 " "3g,28 39.08 32.6,;

,

_

3Z

,

•

J

..

=.

30•42 27.66 24 61 30.58 17.30 16,70

II,

The

Literature

Analytical

Another more

often

of the age-old than

(analytically) many on

imports

across

Yet

marketing

has

levels.

much

research food

and

often

targetted

rapidly

low,

and

even

impose

prohibitive

will I)e borne

have

I_t:t_ttdevoted have

allowed

government

to

taxpayers.

and/or

enterprises,

be

the

unsustainable

bc_osled

fartners

of

ill developing

to JfTigllli()n,

perlilanelitly local

the

and

i_ubiic

good

cost

Ill productioll high

same

tile

COlillliOIl

lntei-ventJoJi

such

to the

by far fewer

ave

are

tariffs

of tile l)iotected

from

are

tltere

lilt: price

financed

maintained

that

provided

to dllngerously

would

Indeed,

COIISUIIIeV$ tO bear

goverflmeJtt

could

in ways

subsidies

l_arastalals

set lip lind

wltk'h

raise

do governments,

to act

often

subsidies

mounted

allloul|l$

techliology

prices

choose

wheat

all

agricultural

have

smaller

lind

f()tcing

is: "Wily

sub-optin_ai?"

"l'ht2 tariffs

the cost of such

Governments

when

producers,

cost less, attcl that cost

food

where

and/or

governments

efficient.

eCOtIOllty,

will certainly

countries,

kept

domestic

provided.

Similarly,

policies,

behaviour:

will be move

protection budget

of such

entire

In ecoj_omics

to be economically

to protect

the

Framework

questions

choose

considered

examples

producers

not,

and

even

rural

[()acts,

productivity, internationally

competitive. Another clung "rural

major

example

to import-substituting and

agricultural

Is a particular

substituting

policies

have

been

and

tenacity

Industrialization

sectors

lqllllppines

is the

- often

example strategies

3?

which

strategies, most

of a case have

reformed.

their

with

Iingered

governments

to the neglect

productive

In which - even

the

of

resources. effects

tltough

have their The

of Import-

officially

tltese

The New Political Economy Of course

it is known

Implementation complexity

of

that

economic

policies.

of understanding

and rules of conduct. "...polilical

economy

in their analysis, for analysis

Is simply

problenl

have chosen

and political

at knowing delimit

lifforts

to explain

Increasingly

the economic

of the effects of and interaction and rapidly-growing and

body of literature

strategy,

particularly

and

on the

in the context adjustment

of

what

experiences

- while new, tackles ti_emes of economics

that they

"The

'new

neoclassical

experience,

the dichotomy

of governme,_ts

that

consistent and

S

i

i

in consideration

economy

of policy

of

making,

stabilization

countries

has always

.

"

Srinlvasazl

agents

|

"

the new political

economy'

.

bce_

This

behave

an action

economy

one of the great,

rationally:

I

define that

over the outcomes whose

outcome

interpreting

Frank llahn

as

the

it narrowly

by

is, they

have

of their

actions,

is preferable

: _ "

(1991),

as:

defined

(1985).

and

body of

the stale in the economy.

Is often

of I'_)lllics...

a large

of development

macroeco_omlc

of the developing

theory

set of preferences

they choose al

political

between

l_ave now produced

determinants

- that of tile role

defined

economic

the axiom

i

has

coven

Yet tl_e denmnds

/

T. N. Srlnivasan

thai

Is not know-able. "5

developme_t

factors

rece,_t

which

patterns

to comment

Ihe factors

on the political

a topic

the

untenable.

political

the

tile

and consequently

factors as given.

behavior

with polllical

and

been

the embedded

of l_ternatlonal

science

always

led some analysts

to strictly

understanding

formulation

has

In the post World War II period, has rendered

economics

continuing

have

the pretense

tile

and behavior,

and treat social and political

and

particularly

literature

Tile

affect

such alld determinhlg

Such difficulties

Thus most economists

structural

factors

of political and social phenomena

great difficulty

policy

political

a

to the

outcomes

of" other

constraints

within

restricted behavior

actions which

they

they act...

analyses

from

the perspective

the NPI] literature

of the ooiltical

feasibility

feasible,

'political

given

ecoaomy'

the

will be

1991)."

Given that tile field is growhig

in general,

also

to analyses that are based on the postulate of rational by all agents Ill economic a_ld political spl_eres

(Srlnivasan,

NPI;. literature

find

so rtlpidly,

it is useful

of its ¢levc:h)pme_t

l_as progressed

econo[!ly

to briefly

wllhhl the recellt

through

three

of agl'let_ltura_,

of t)oll_3r_gjR/_Q_lts, alld ii1()$l rereilll)',

;-eview tile decade.

major-phases6:

focus on lh_polilical

the

h|vesllgillion

of

eLld()Rell()lJS

12_iLLingii_S.

:]'he Political .Economy of ARgifAIILRrilLEc2IIty. axlalyses of tile i]()llth'ill

Tile

to explain: subsidize

(a)

less developed

tileir agrlculttJral

sharly differing the political 1988),

why

u¢'()n(Jmy

coutttrles

sectors,

of: (a) taxation

(b) the transition

countries

(Anderson

developed

countries

tax, while

Sucll research

in developing

from taxation

and ilayami,

policy

rix.st

to protection

countries

Intervene

at

led to the literature

on

countries

(Krueger,

et aL

In the newly-industrializing

1986) and (c) commodity

like the U.S. and some

altempled

developed

and (h) why do governments

levels across cornmodltlesl

economy

()1 ilgu'l,'ultural

price support

l!uropean_ coulltrles

((;ardner,

In the 1987;

PeUt et al., 1987). The political-economy have, lxl general, been

commonly

employment, agricultural

6

utilized

explanations

the "stylized

Observed:

the

This summation

in the literature

facts" of the development falling

a rising share of marketed production,

and Interpretations

sl_are surpluses,

a fall In tile relative

relies substantially .:LS"

process

of agriculture Increasing

incomes

in

Ll_at have GNP and

fixity of factors

of farmers,

(m de Janvr 3, and Sadoulet

a declining

([992)

in

share of food in consumers'

budgets, a decreasing price elasticity of food demand, a falling

elasticity of wages with respect to food prices, a shift in comparative advantage from agriculture to industry,

more agricultural diversification,

lesser reliance on trade taxes and more on direct

taxes, and an increased capacity to decouple incomes from commodity price supports.

The PQlitical Feasibility of Policy Reform As the inefficiency and costs of existing policies have mounted, the inevitability of reform and of the difficulties met in initial reform efforts have led to the development

of the literature on

the understanding as well as the determination of the political feasibility of policy reform. analyses

have been expanded

in the examination

of reform

in relation

These

to macroeconomie

stabilization and structural adjustment (Nelson, et al., 1990); the transition to import-substitution to outward orientation

(Magee, et al., 1989), and the shift from centrally-planned

to market-

oriented economies. The above literature include:

(a) more

redistdbutive

indicates some of the determinants favorable

macroeeonomic

economic

of politically context

successful

for reform;

reform

to

(b) smaller

effects of reform; (c) appropriate sequencing of reforms, with experience pointing

to the following chain: exchange rate adjustment and inflation control, followed by trade and tax reforms, then financial liberalization and public sector• adjustment, and finally productive sector •reforms;

(d) packaging of reforms in mutually-reinforcing

sets; (e) the greater coincidence between the distribution distribution polarization;

and thus more politically-palatable of the gains from reforms with the

of economic power; (f) a high level of state autonomy; (g) lower levels of political and (h) greater social consciousness.

36

"i

l_ndo_enous

Policy Making

Some advances the result

have also been made in Ihe modelling

of hlleractlons

"in U_ls re.text,

I)elwee-

tile view Is [aken that 1992).

game-theoretic

developed

frameworks

the theories Tabellinl,

of governmeat

provides

the opportunity

the economist

approach,

have partaken

choice

literature.

iu_ policy

making

of

of the

Included and

(Persson

its own agenda.

makers (Chart

the policy

is passive. aPl)roat'h,

Policy

and

and Implementors, 7).

It Is clear Top

Ill c()ntrast,

or

In the soclety-celitered

Is dependent

()n societal

views government

as possessing

are Influential.

by making

experience

government

officials

l_ave to be lnlplemented,

:tlld

ill

Is del)e_lclex_t upon

of the policy maker and

the• latitude

lobbying

eFfoa'ts dix'ected

Influence

of policy from

the "society-centered"

and technocrats

from

these

and

forces

a distlnctioxi

between

and also of tl_e forces at work on these separate

whole.

of the modlFicatlorl

tile various

Meler's representation

maker.

choice

adds to Meler's relwesentatioll,

homogenuous decisions

process.

but also to examine

The state Is autonomous,

This paper

6) to depict

not (rely the linear progression

forces that bear upon

tile gover_m_ent

(Chart

in tl_e decision

to discuss

The state-centered

extent

outcome

m_der IobI)yluig by l,_terest groups,

and (:redlblllty

to a policy outcome,

"state-centered"

actors

tile public

an illustrati(m

that bear on the policy maker

policy

by Ih_ Ix)lli:y.

Plus Policy P[.o.£._ss

Meier (1990)

Inl}ut$.

I.

as

1(_)90).

Policy Substance

provides

affected

Ihus_

'Fhese nllodelllng e[forts

I)ehavi()u

of time consistency

;llld

"l'c)llcy Is itself tile endogenous

a social process (de Janvry,

are the theories

+

I)OIIc)'JlliLkt:fS

of policy making

policy.

3_

of the

that

governments

do make

policy

the l)rocess are olle_l the

co_lsistency

lml}lementor,

specifically

and

are

not a

decisions,

but

mcxlified. 'File

between

the views

olx tile success

at the lml)lemexltors

of

•of the

The Rautlsta Framework Bautlsta

(1992)

presents

strategies

In support

experience

or tile Philippines.

9,

witli

the

l'ormer

Incorporating Bautlsta's ret'orm

tile

showing

lnnuences

framework In the

of rural

a framework development, Bautlsta's only

and

framework domestic

of the international

to organize

Philippines.

Ihe

for

a,ld

discuss

tile

analysis

applies

the

of

policies

framewok

and to

the

is illustrated

In Charts

8 and

influences,

and

latter

economy. Ihe subs[antive

This

the

paper

areas

adopts

of policy

41

•.

,-4

X

4J

c-

0 :>

.el

42

III. The

Record

of

i(ecelll.

In

It look economic witl_

at least

hardship

five

years

so-called

"I_DSA people-power

the crisis

were

in the

tile early

1970s

and

culminating

oi_Posltloti

in

poIlik'i_lll

nlomentum, for

n_ismamLgement revolution"

government's again

enough

frustration,

government's

l,I li|e

February

Rflforms

Philippines

for

and political

the Marcos

1985.

the

E¢ononlk:

1986

and

avarice

[o the

l')8Os. was

The the

by

population's

of February

responses early

tile

fueled

continuing

dissatisfaction

to coalesce

into

the

1'38(,. 7 The beginnings

of

inlernational

{fit.leer

oil shocks

of

for the eye, his of late

assassin:ili(m

of

tile

popular

l_elligl_o Aquh_o Jr. lit AUgtLsL 1')83.

The Roots of the Economic Crisi_ The government sevenUes, first

late

its it struggled

internatioxlal

threat

of food 1971 and

difficulties Law

shortages

as

period

OPI_C's cartellzaUon government

to provide

the

mounled

whal

ecoilonly

Io comhine

raiicmale

and

it called

buffeted

b), typhoons

the economic his

declaration

(_f Martial

to llje

pressures

induced

o1" a food

shortage.

the

Ihreal

a set of "counter-cyclical

the

and political

|_rog|'am

of

by

through

it broad

response

pricing

for

ill tile early

uil m lhe wake of tt_e

was also

was devastaLed

eslal_lishe.d

governme_lt's of oil

verb! expensive

harvest managed

lie

currez_[ accotsJ)t deficits

domeslic

adroitly

1972. the

The

sudd,_nly

as lhe rk'e

1972. Marcos

of the

to run large

_o afford

oil shock.

h _. September

expenditures

started

expansi(mary by the

maneuvers",

The in

,t

ternls of a sharply-Increased

fiscal

and public

lnvesm_ent

program

(World

Bank.

1992).

7 "EI)SA" Is tile popular a¢'ron),m for I_pifan/o tle los Santos Avemle. the ring road enclrclhlg tile Ill'ball |ll¢)ller of _.l£._ll'Ol_Itllllii.l, li[')SA was tile l'brhl(-ipal site of tile clenlo|Islratiotls |[i oppositlon to l'resicletlt Marcos. 43

_l_en 'official

Growlh.

and comnlerclal

projects.

IIorrowlng

lleutralized

during

opposition

to be a good credit "petrodollars" decision that

to

The

rate

Inflows

Jlank's

risk.

required

poll(y,

Ileavily

from

both

for Ille program s and

L'asy. Mal-(:os has effectively

.'llld

the Philippl|_es

(inatlclial

market

was perceived

was awash deposils

of

gains amassed by Ihe t}I'I!C ¢(_untries due to their sudden The International provided

reserves

financiers,

imbued

loans freely,

h l tile l)hillpl_ine

externally-sourced

lallel'llatlOll;ll

was quite

The internalic)nal

riot default°

of Increase from

for Ih_ flmuwing

the i_e|'lod

raise oil prices. could

borrowed

to governnletit

- the large

coul_trles

annual

sources

The government

Between

goverxmlea_t's

loans

were

(..veil lllt'rl;.15c'd

also

witl_ a belief 1974 - 80, the

sl)endlng

averaged

so large

thai

|)ulWet, Ii 1_)74 alid

tile

1979

2296.

Central

(Bautlsta.

1987).

At first the

glance,

mld-1970s

overall

unexperienced public

heights

spending,

transforming

and the

traditional

unstable

account countr also

core

deficit

of 6 to 7% in real

terms.

construction

to pay

to

of

plailipl_ine

a

more

off and

to the extent

to borrow refinance that

gover,_ment aill'lUlll

worked.

surged

Private

to

diversified

hitherto-

investment

Manufacturing exports

Through

from

followed

grew one

•structure

rapidly,

dominated with

by

significant

content.

by the

operating

boomed.

aggregate Indicators

as well as the public

7 continued

borrow

per

structure

however

by the

growth

non-traditional

Masked

adopted

economic

commodities

manufactured,

very

the strategy

not

accumulated

tile ratio

deficit only debts.

of the country's

,14

statistics

of economic

sector

heavily

growtli

of•the

period

management.

(Table to finance

The

13) mounted new

debt

the

current

rapidly.

The

expenditures

The government external

were

continued

to GNP ballooned

but to

,,

m,

Table 13

Current Account and Public Sector Deficits (% o! GNP) :

Year=.

..

=

(,:u=rent Account/ 96

"

l

:

• .

.

"' Source:

'

Public Sector

I

..

%

1975i 1976 1977 _ :

o5.66 -5.89 -3.61

1.23 1.751 1.88

1978 1979 198o 198i . .

-4.56 -5.00 -5,401 -5,36 ..

1,22 O. lS 1.2B _4100 ,,

.

,

=

,

1982

-8.1 5

1983 1984

-8.07 • • -3,53

,,

198%"

.,

4.2.9 J

.

" .o.3z

Canlas (1989) and Monies (1989).

45

1.70 1.58

1.9_

from only 34% In 1970 to 93%

by 1986 ('l';ible 14)8. In retrospect,and as

summarized by Ranis{1991),the Phllll_l_Ines experlel_ced allextended period of "debt-drivengrowth".

The BubbleBursts Thus the Phlllpplne economy was hardly in a positionto effectively adjust to the second Internationaloli shock of 1979-80.

Stillheavily exposed to

internatlonaI debtswl_Ichhad been Incurredat a low LIBOR rate,the government continued to borrow evettat I.IBORof 1695.In 1982, foreign borrowing had reached

8.5% of GNP, and the public sector deficit stood at 4.596 of GNP. bloreover,

a substantial borrowings either

proportion

did not pay off.

establish

• ..

The

government financial

13anks In Crisis. llnancial

through

Phillppineg. annual

blany were made

new enterprises

flows arising

handled

of the lnvestmeats

The conm_crcial

Institutions,

foreign National

borrowing

from

loans.

been

made

utilizing

of the Marcos regime

system,

to

a major

Much

including

the

handling

the

loans

were

link

of the crony

Bank az_d the Development foreign

the

ventures 9.

l)anki_g

was of course

from the

had

to cronies

or to save existing

the Philippine

Private

that

sources

also

Bank of the

increased

by an

average of 20% from 1973-82.

|

i

.

•

8 Prior to 1981, loans ss_ere freely av:lilabie. When the see'end inlernaticmal oil shock l_it and Me×leo del'lar_,d il lllC)l'itl(}l'itllti Oil its debts, lhe debt (risis l)r(_l,¢:. 'i'l_e Pliilippines contjltued i() I)0ITow, I)til lit Very steel) riiles arid also because its creditors il_oped to salv.'ige their aireildy lai'ge e×posures to the couniry. .

.

.......

....

9 or, to =continue t0 funnel domestic public inves tntents.

funds 46

to per sollal

catches, ostensibly

through

Table t 4

External

Debt

(Million $ al_d %)

Exte_mal Debtl Million $

-'-_.... year ......... = .-

.

i

_. •

t..

1977 ,, 197B

1979 1980 ...... 19B1 1902 '_ 1983 . '

t986j

..

--

.

8069 10694

,

.L

'" 28256 ....

19871_.. 286,19 Source:Monies(1989).

31.30 37.50

.

39,00, 44.501

- .....

13352 17252 20693 ..... 24677 24816.. •

96 ,

4939,__ . 6768 • = .........

19s, 2s418 '19"sSl "_ ' 2e_52

"'

% .

J

1975 1976 .

'

Debt/GNP- O. ebt/,Exports

=,,

=

J

.,.

45 20 49.00 54140 62 80.=_ 72.80 I.

80,5o el.7o .92.90. _

8340

,. 154.30 196:50 190".50 217,B0

,

213,40 215.40 " 242,40 308 . 30 • . 305, 20

31Z.lO '_16o 327.30

31080

In 1081, the financial

system was exposed

in crisis by tile abscondment

Dee, a textile

tycoon

connections.

Dewey large,

tangled,

of Dee's

mess

creditors

signalled

Industry

of unsecured, and

a general

Savings

dried

Tl_rough

the first half

to prevent

undertook

a major

growth

crisis falling

the years

and

Mexico come

to 1985

had defaulted,

necessitated

the

Moreover

there

short-term

CB's

credit,

both

with

the Central

capital

a

imprudence

the

Bank

economy.

official

and

Bank of the Philippines

did

the banking

nmnagement,

issuance

in

to only about

actually

be financed

and the lemling halt.

lh)wever,

drawing

down

was increasing inflows

It

tile

stashing

-

specialized

"I'i_e Pidllpplnes'

torpor • to result 196 in 1982

and

from

contlntllHg

t)f the

Central

difficulty

foreign

need Bank's

In ohtahthig

were lilac)tit three

in GNP 1983.

that tile Pidlippines'

In

times

for

those

foreign

lnterrtationai long-term In 1979

current

loans after

spree of the w_)rhl's commercial the

of

shrank.

The second oil sllock meant no longer

Bills"

supply.

markets

Tile Government by

"jol)o

the money

Internatlomd

system. marked

of the

reduce

GNP per capita

could

IO .'tit al)rupt

from

of tile Central

International

to less tllan 3.596 in 1981, and

deficits

services

and

run on

at crisis tile

combined

1982

revealed

system

198Os,

to dnlslically

The Debt Crisis. account

of the

attempt

designed

domestic

The

in tile financial and

a generalized

expenditures

instruments

fled,

Dee escaped

up 10.

all it could

public

debts.

of tile regulatory

loss of confidence capital

Marcos

interlocking

tl_e weakness

plununeted,

commercial,

with

of

loans, ($12.1B),

1981.

banks had exchange reserves. in

1982,

asld tile

I0 By one estimate, Capital flight at this time amottnted to $2.S Billion. estimated as tile total of residual cltaitge lit exieriiai del)t, with atijtistinents due to direct foreigtl investntent, current flt_COtti|t transactions, ¢;haltgtt ill internaticmal reserves, nioilet!zatiOn of gold_ sileclai ¢t!'awh!g r:lghts aml revaluath)n of debt due to change in tile:rate of foreign excltange (I. T. S!cat, "Capital l;light: The l'itlllpphle Case," •••The .Cen_t_ti Bati_k •lCe•i,•iet_:•Manila, May 1990. ....

II

,.

...

.

'.

•

: .

../..

,!..

"

"Jobo" is tile nleicname Bank of the Phlllpphies

.

, ":

•

.

.

. .

.

,)f Mr, Jose B. i;ernandez, front 1983 to 1989.

the

Governor

of

tile

ratio

of short-term

financing by

tile

to total debt

was required commercial

(Lamberte,

to meet

banks

(1985)

"The

the increased

in a desperate

instability

provides

debt

discontinued

the

a concise

crisis

arose

rolling

over

after •August

from debt

1996 to 2696. burden,

attempt

The

additional

and was also

to avoid

provided

wholesale

default

description

of tile 1983-85

essentially

1983.

because

crisis:

external

of short-term

loans

owing

To compound

the problem°

lenders

to political there

was

massive at $200

capital flight following M within a few weeks.

the Aqulno assassistatlon, estimated "l'he $2.7B current account deficit

incurred

In 1983

8% of GNP) had

l|_ternlatlonal

(representing

reserves,

than one month's standard, soon

declared

The Productive While early

growth

colinlrles

to .a level

by mld-()ctober.

exclnanlle

a moratorium

Industrial

capacity

environment. substituting

sluml_Cd crisis.

amounting

to al)out

equivalent

PInilippi|le

of debt

from to less

Tills represented, The

on paymelll

to be financed

by any

g_)vernment

prhnclpai,

a Iotai

$2611 at tile thne."

Sectors

eighties,

and

which

Imports

a foreign

debt outstanding

The

development

agricultural to weather Philippines

industrialization to attempt the

dominaled

production adverse was strategy

to al)a_td()|t

entrenched

In

beneficiaries

as well as believers

making

sharply

et al., 1992).

Bautlsta

the

rose

policy

it.

structure.

one

,19

rhetoric

provided turns

the

In Ihe

of line earliest

in the posl-WWli I_IcmvL_IS of There

in line slralegy,

persists.

tile

of

actual

development

in

foundations

for

lnLerJlatlonal coJ_verts era.

to the

It is among

the ISI slr_Ltcgy

also and

continues their

economic

the last

•still

Lo be

influence

import-

on

remain fervent policy

_dl2O.t:Llncelltlves which shift

anfl_tllg_B_l.

strengtllened Io a tltore

variations Board

the

Investment

of the Act since

the llA, provided

various

taxes;

of

deductions

strat('gy,

then,

(BOI),

had

which

kinds

and

:xporters.

Export

_ubsldles

In terms

_xport processing

These

alley

ere only

also

:acerbating

the

growing

ntlnued _e period

i=j

were

|

In the

since

support

Import

and prices

advantage financing

terms,

enough

to

still

1980 were

behhld

overvaluatlo_

Most

paid on,

promotion

to investors

and

SUl)Port

and

Infrastructure

in

services.

system

the

The

Export

on taxes

of selective

tariff market,

the

of the EIA and

of export

provided

a

and

enterprises.

tax credits

trade

problems. 1972

taxes;

overall

domestic

to

between

i

to qualified

handling

signalled

protectionism.12

Implementer

Incentives

not

1967,

of 1970,

lmplenlenlath)ll

by the

protective

of

of Increased

easier

however,

Act IEIA)

and deductions

take

and

engendered

highly

the

also

marketing

exporters'

(Chart

among

It) finance,

served

to fall,

lml_)rts;

t)f access

competitive

_strlctlons

were

(IIA)

its

of tax exentpti(ms

could

zones,

The

but

the effect

producers

to exports

regime.

ports

costs

Incentives

Islneentlves

Act

export revenue from Income

freight

Incentives

was the principal

as well as on the cost of, raw material ._xpenses

Exix)rt

itwentlves

outward-looking

of Investments

The

slgnlficantiy,

at 23%, growing

compensate and

for

foreign

ensured

that

tariff

walls.

the of

the

even

tile Plfllipplnes' at 17.5%

per

exchange exporters The

exchange with

tariff rate,

the value

terms year

the

of

of trade

during

the

10),

,

i

.

Tile Philippines has a long history of selective iitce,)tlves for itltlt, stries, h the earl!est provided In 1,)46. I{t.'pt, l)llc Act 35 t)f 1:)46 granted new a,ld _essiu'y industries exemptioi_ from the i)a)'ment of hlter,aal revenue taxes for fir.st fotlr.:-years of Opi2i"atlon. P()wttr ittltl SlOt.it (1971), Jurado (19761 alitl aasan (1986) provide useful overviews of l'tlllipphle Incentives over tile years._

J_

Chart 10

Terms of Trade

oooo ii,......... .......................... 70.00

=.......

_=,-

_ ......

,e

. .......................

60.00

...............

50.00

.i .....

40.00

........................................................

30.00

............................................

_".,_ .. : ..-I

I

._

.......

I_/'-,,,\l/i

ae

20.00

..........................................................

10.00

...........................

0,00

--'1--I----I _.

h.

...........

.... I ---I -- I.. f_.

t_.

. ...............

I- ,- I =. I ......I .... t--t---I co

_

Semesters

51

cO

'....

.... I -- t--I--t---t-,--] co

cO

' cO

Aericulture

as the Bulwarkof

The growlil

agricultural

tl)_ I_C0IIP_ILLY

sector was the Internal

in the. 1970s.

Foreign capital

source

of

the economy's

rapid

.lnfh)ws provldc, d tl_e extern_,! resources

for _,.

growth,,

Riding

Philippine

spending

througl

! the

In tile

Philippines

much

of the

wl_erewl[hal

countries

1970s.

the

International

performance

performance strong of the

whose

economy,

GDP growth

industrial

"stylized

a seenls

growth, 1_

see,us

1982

World

exceeded

596 per

"rice

fact"

and

rate of 6.596

spread

In turn,

to

ti_rough

provided

the

to grow.

industrialization in

tile

In

development

the analysis

ti_e capacity

growth

mid-1970s,

as implemented

anti

sector

to support

developing

The

root

growtll,

is now

to

average In rice

took

precondition

agricultural

at not less than

looking

early

expansionary

particularly

Is a key

asrlcultural

the

annual

13. Agricultural

experience

of

a massive,

99 program,

inward

PhiIipplnes

by

revolution",

sector

growth

boom

at an impressive

as the b lasagat_a

li_k betweez_

Furthermore,

along

to grow

Tile "green

agricultural

14

commodity

pushed

rice-growing

rnacroeconomic

growing

was

program

like

literature.

world

for the protected,

That

countries

the

agriculture

roads"

a strong

oll

that

there

for industrialization,

is and

Countries

(Bautlsta,

1987).

to

tl_e strollg

overall

underlie

DevelopmeLtt year

had

ltepo:'t agricultural

noted

that

sectors

396 per year.

13 Brewsler Grace, "Food and Small-Farm Slrategles in the Philippines," in Barbara Iluddleston and Jo,_ Mcl,i_ (eds.) Politl,'al lt_vc, stmetJts it] Food Plodt_cllolI. indiana University Press, 1979. 'i i.I Bautlsta (1991) provides a concise agricultural growdl on rural development.

52

review

of the

demand-side

effects

of

Finally, agricultural During only

strength

the worst-performing agricultural

years of the Plllllpplne

GVA grew, albeit

GVA growth were negative. whose

growth

did

performances

provide s the capacity

at a low rate.

Adelman

not deteriorate

to withstand

economy

adveisiry.

in 1983

Industrial

to 1985,

as well as services

(1984) observes

that 8096 of the 31 countries

during

1970s

the late

had above-average

In agriculture.

Yet the policy regime of the 1970 and the early 1980s i,_ the Pl_lllpplnes not exploit

the country's

end of tile world

commodity

country's

terms

continued

to Implement

of trade

on an Incentive-fueled _owever

comDarative

In the late a strategy shift

Inputs.

of

and

In agriculture.

tile consequent

1970s,

development

and

highly

Their expansion

Even with the

deterioration

the country's

to non-traditional

very narrowly-based

_ld imported

boom,

advat_tage

dependent

of the

economic

characterized exports.

managers

by the reliance

These

exports

on government

was thus unsustalnable,

did

were

protection

and collapsed

with

he debt crisis and the second oll sh(x.-k h_ 1979-80.

It was only lear

signal

in 1984. Ioward

of a seeming

omprehensive

program

t Improving

agrlct, ltural

iversified

its end,

turnaround

productivlly,

system,

and

alance of payments

through

expanded

)87).

in its

of agricult_,ral-based

farming

But by thel_ the efforl

that tile t_lar_:os government

increasing

policy

toward

agriculture.

deveh)i)ment was launched, promoll_lg agriculture's

a stronger

exi)orls and h_ll_()rt stll)stilull()||

53

A aimed

and

contribution

was too hHe It) revive the eco_lomy

_glme.

gave a

more to the

(Baullsta, and save

the

+.

ConHnulng_ural

Poverty

The most tellingevidence of the misdlrected strategy of governance in the 1970s and early 1980s Is the contlnuIng pervasiveness of poverty.

Ballsacan

(1992) shows that the proportion of tilepopulation earning incomes below the poverty

line rose from around

of the Marcos alternative more

presidency

measures

(Chart

data adjusted

by Ballsacan

(1992).

eve

characterized •

of

official

holds

commonly-used

for changes

and

Expellditures

in the definitiotl

even

with

headcount

gap or Foster-Greer

Income

to 1985

of "niral

the use of

index,

Thorbecke data,

- the years

or the

measures)

or tile "Constant areas"

prepared

an

economy

Lc_ac.v. the

by the

35 million,

1965

15

Economic

The

(the

Family

55% between

This observation

poverty

official

Rural Areas"

Marcos

11).

of poverty

dlstrlbutlonally-sensitive

or sets of data (the

The

50% to almost

February

following

1986 stark

or 5996 of I:lliplnos,

poverty

revolution

thus

saw

features: subsisting

on incomes

of size below

the

line;

•

rural

poverty

double

that of urban

•

more

than 6596 of all school-age

poverty;

children

mt×lerately

or severely

malnourished; +,

•

negative

•

agricultural

GVA growlh

and services

GVA also al minus-2.9%

•

..

a public

=

-

=

(-4.196) GNP growth

sector

11

deficit

In 1985

at only

(SONA, 1991);

1.296, while from

Industrial

1983-85

GVA at minus

([amberte,

-6.696,

et al., 1992);

of 3.1% of GNP;

|

lS The adjustment Is made necessary by [he flaw in the lntertemporal comparisons of income levelsof l'ur_tl househokls, when the definitionof "rural" ha's been modified over time, and wi_lch thus introduces a systematic undertestlmatlon of rural Incomes (Iklutlsta, 1991 ). .54

Rural Poverty:

FIES vs Constant 1961-1991 HEAD COUNT

N t-t"_ i

I' :. _'\'_ • ,... _,\_

:: .:: \\

_,\_

....

e

_.\,,.

_

I_1

I_l

101'1

I_1111

_,_

" :-

\\_

.

\\V

liii41

POVERTY GAP 40-'.

_,_-t i •

_.s,%

.,.

,o :_,:l+

_ _,_,_

iO

'

_

:

w,

a

-_

i

I

mot

_

li_l

_

_

IDOl

Distribution-Sensitive Measute 10 _

-- •

I_1 _

.......

tO

_ k_

I0

• I -.

..,

.... '_'.

'._,]

I_i

.. \\ \\ \\ • \_

,.. _.

_

. ,let1

_

mcl

55

Imi

Rural Areas

•

annual Inflation of 23% in 1985, 27.9% over 1983-85;

•

exports In decline

•

a debt-to-GNP

•

unemployment

•

the grains,

of 12.696 in 1985, alid underemployment

telecommunications

an partlally-alx+rted

protectionist

still restricted,

,,

government

system,

Development

•

shipping,

port

in tile grips of

iultl

;I trade lx+licy structure

with quantltativerestrictions;

sector

programs

reh_rm

program,

continuing

with

branching

and tim rural

the large, government-owned

institutions

deadweight

of "non-performing

government

and to "crony"

subsidiaries)

Industries

the l_hllll_pine National

Bank of the Phllil_pitles , practically

301 government-owned

airline,

repressed;

particularly

financial

program

financial

still quite

of 29.5% in 1983-85;

mo:_opolles,

and riddled

special lending

system

a banking

fertilizer,

and coconut

trade reform

a i_artlally-hnldemented

financial

banana,

or government-protected

still heavily •

rating;

meat, flour, sugar,

government •

from 1981-85;

ratio of 92% in 1985, and a very poor international

credltworthlness

handling,

by 496 annually

assets."

Individuals

and controlled

which we.re nbsorbhag

bankrupt

loans and advances

and l_nk

operated

and

under

the

the

to tile

and businesses; eerie>rations

(93 parent

about 5.3% of GNP am_ually

and 208 ill

subsidies; and •

only 3,7% of the total government 1985.

budget allotted

to public investments

in

The .Aqulno

Government,s

President 1986

economy,

politics,

because could

be

flush

were

the

government.

reforms

the

design

and

macroecononlic

balance

conducive

to accelerated

definition

may

not

also

bureaucracy.

Krueger policies

intended life

(1992}

programs

packages"

to be implemented

L"_OtlOilty

...

In

five

may

emphasis

as "...

and

since

to correct

long

The

would

as

be

strict

generally

structure

program'."

any

had

are

"crash

to define

announced

in the

In

under'went

eleven

that

and

change

Brazil

changes

(including)...

well

at restoring

term.

"... ira practice,

difficulties

would

of art environment

proceed

is on tile set of policies...

57

aimed

does

long-run

a program

as

Krueger

a set of policy

from

as a comprehensive,

aclix,ltles

Argentina

the

government

called

implententing

and

from

nflrj!cles

stabilization

the

that

reforms

view of a program

of reforms

reform

19891

weary

Aquino

the creation

tile

- ambitious

which

expected

conceived

notes

years,

with

l+e truly

program

as a 'policy

They

what

over

by

future - right.

Ihe

then

however,

In two years

program"

the

understood

is described

reform"

reform

tltat

- its

population, literally

in

country

speed

economic

growth

the

Whether

of i+ollcles

economic

require

if

set

responsibility

set of reforms

A strict

both

In the short-term,

also

supported,

"policy

Filipino

measures - all deliberately

h_ternally-conslstent

entire

and

regime,

of

Into =o set

ambitious

facility

the

came

and

of judgeinem.

execution

cohesive,

economic

tile

because

Is a matter

adjustment

"policy

ambition

and Imiflementlng

structural

economic

and

a very

of the Marcos

construcilng

of economic

team

Its situation

about

also

her

"Progrz+,m_efgl+lllj.

in

demand

a bit naive

exploitation

Aoulno's

enthusiasm

to accomplish

and

and

succeeded

and

bureaucracy,

achieved,

excesses new

Aqulno

with

attempted

they

at Rel+m+m

Corazon

February

lnmmdlately

Attemt+ts

and

functioning

monetary

a

of

policy,

alterations

in government

liberalization

expenditures

and tax policies

... and changes in the exchange

rate and

of the trade regime.

The reforms of the Aquino period contained all of the elements enumerated by Krueger.

On that

basis, the Aquino period may thus be viewed as possessing of an economic reform program, as indeed it is viewed in the literature, including by the PIDS, 1987; Krueger, 1992; Haggard, 1990; Nelson, 1990; World Bank, 1992; and Soriano, 1992. But such a listing does not reveal the disparities in the sources and impetus for the various reform activities within the policy making community and official hierarchy. In examining the process of reform in the Aquino era, it needs to be emphasized that the various reform activities iml)lomented added up to into an "ect)noulic reft)rm i)rogram ". altar)st serendll_itl_ously. there were individual officials in the Aquino administration to undertake the reforms as a package, not designed, with predetermination,

who had both the capacity and willingness

in general the government's to be simultaneously

Willie

policy initiatives and activities were

nor coordinatively

implemented.

The fiscal

expenditures reform activity was principally the province of the Department of Budget and Management. The activities to improve the generation of fiscal revenues was an effort of the Department

of Finance.

All along the Central Bank of the Philippines appeared to manage the money supply and exchange rate like variables with consequences recognized

only on its own accounts.

as an issue of broad consequence

and interest late in the Aquino regime.

later years of the Aquino period when the interactions became recognized

among the economic policy makers.

efforts to meld the disparate liberalizing

elements

The trade reform program only became

and interrelations

of the various policies finally

Toward the latter half of 1990 that deliberate

into a coordinated

program

were taken, when a package

measures were presented to the cabinet (,principally by the Department of

58

It was also in the

of

Finance)

for approval,

prior

to discussions

with

tile

multilateral

upon

by the Aqulno

fh_anclng

Instil utlons. 16 The set of economic was not completely adjustment

measures

fiscal

the Ilnanclal

and

corporations

in the

- particularly

IlleAnalytlcal

Sources

From

the point

leadership, economic

liberalization

she

ideals.

Such a situation,

political

she hoped, recovery

to economic

members

directly

Individual

experiences°

That

ideas. i

The presentallon Eshililsllto,

autonomy

1,_ charge ii

i6

as

In •1980,

hi 1986 were refi)rms in and

operated

sector.

agenda

it is clear of

unexpected

was

that

political

much

her

adventure

clearer

principal

normalcy

than

and

along

democratic

From such a vlewpohat,

when

left the thinking on development

on political

specific

and execution, strategy

and

it is thus

matters,

tltiestiol_s

her

priority

would then set the stage for participatory,

most of her energies

In

and

would

be

both

on the

and policies

to the

concerned.

Given the relative

Jesus

was Initiated

()ngohtg

on her

mlm;Igemet_t

overall as well as the detaUed levels, members

to Implement

g(|ver,||tlcntc_wned

and growth.

that Aquino focussed

to her for resolution.

cabinet

of

an environment

economic

attention

in 1981.

embarked

In hindsight,

was to create

paying

program

those In the agricultural

Aqulno's

program.

not surprising

had begun

structural

Ihe

with the lblF and th(: WB Ihat had l>egun In

disptlsltloll

that

Corazon

sustainable,

from

government

of tile Allliin_E[iL_P_gllLl_ls/il._u/_¢s

interest

raised

negotiations

elements

gover_ment

by the tariff reform program policy

really

that ti_e lqarcos

For example,

followed

embarked

It conlalnetl

new.

early as 1980, following 1978.

reforms

The

provided

of eco,_omic Ideologies,

by Preslde_t policies,

beliefs,

Aquino

they

each

Interests

and

to the Cabinet

fell back to their circles

of advisers

i

was Spezlrheaded hy p reseiltil|Ioll

was

Io meet wilJi the I/_iF oii a new llnancing 59

the new Secrelary of Finance, Dr. shortly before lhe governme_t had facllity.

nlade

••

for tire i_tellectual tl_at

riley

whicl_

and

espoused

and/or

they

expected

responsibility,

apart

effects

on other

Aquino

from

vociferous

critic

because

of

Carlos

are

used

for had

stance,

Domlnguez.

elected

of liI_eral

an effective

adjttstmel_t•

agricultural

C_ngressntatl

economists

from

sl_e bad

been

based

at tile which,

analysis

and

growth.

Ramon

enunciated

partnership became and

Minister a

Mitra.

and

Businessman

Chairman

manufacturer,

manufacturers most

structure upon

of

lie

were

also

engaged

Romulo,

brought

Diokno

as his Deputy

Chamber

in bushiesses policy.

of the

Speaker.

And.

c,0

Central

4

l_ank

his

Industry

on

heavily,

than

Industry as

fellow (PCCI)

the protectionist

had

The Minister

of tl,e "white

the thh,klng

and

with

amd

dependent

Research.

authors

Trade

of

on his own instincts

of Commerce

The

his

Secretary

House

frequently

heavily

of Economic

In one

Minister,

consulted

relied

a

of

the UP at Los Banos

appointed

investments,

of and

lndustrl;tl

Department

Alberto

met

Philippine

Philippine

Its internal

Concepcion,

of the Board

In the

of whom

Jose

a for

and grew to espouse a policy stance quite more open and market-oriented that of Mr.

by

spokesperson

and

later

the

economists,

tn

who

of

National

interests,

particularly

of

appointed

M{msod)

of these

areas

of tile

broad-gauged

Domlnguez,

being

the Input

the

wllo

been

because

(lll(iudllig

returns

regardless

Director-General partly

measures

of tl_e

individual

had

the Input

appropriate

politician

Mltra's

on

their

C. Monsod

and

provided

agriculture-first

with

Domlnguez

fell back

tire basis

and

least

policies

lx31icles a_d

•officials,

and

at

economic

training,

veteran

Minister

Sollta

Minister"

oil

on

oilier

Authority

She

which

market-oriented

measures

of a grotH} of ecollomists

their

an astute

the ecol_ontic largely

of the

Planning

of l_conontics.

Agrlct|ltore

those

of Marcos

recotnmendallons

Deputy

tl_ese

Development

tire reconunendatlons U.P. School

of

of tile economy.

to be Economic and

content

lmplentented,

from

areas

Economic

Mltra,

al_alytical

always of tl,e

paper"

of the Department

relied Budget,

- Benjamin of Finance

-was driven sector

by the enormous

manager

Into regime's

who had been

the NEDA.

Initial

One

group

the

monograph

1984),

The

policies

are described

.were

Finance

from

by Fabella

(1989)

Secretary

set

Philippine

known

-- Jalme

on tile

alley

of tile

of inputs

economists

produced,

o[ the

became

and enthusiasm

comprehensive

had

popularly

conceded

appointed

tliose

An Analysis

"...

• energy

most

of UPSP. professors

which

individual

much

Economic

as the "white

faculty

policies

weakness

and

financially properly the

and

community, Encouraged,

i

l

reaction

and time,

policies t

which

of

lll_E

of

and

and functions

the

by

was popularly

actions

discussion

faculty

produced

the discourse and

contents

market

the

and

extreme

power.,

significant

paper',

by

facilitated

causing

This

i

process

even

in 1985,

• i

a

much

"white

et al.,

the chronic

massive

of roles

dlscl_arged

generated

Growth

of

--

group

UPSE.

tim same structures

for

progressive,

by government

paper"

of tile

package

tile

efficiently

of political

another

1985)

on

"white

authors

al.,

usurpation

sector

concentration

of Ihe responsibility

harped

ordinarily

private

The

ihesls

bloody

whose

r(fles of the oil sh<_L'k and ... terms

be absolved

... The

of the

as:

tile adverse

cannot

Aqutno

(De Dies,

trade deterioration bill ... Ihat other countries experiencing difficuhles did not buckle under... The domestic economic and

the

soul-searching,

Crisis

paper"

Ongpln 17

into

lnterllal

private

for

from

the

mettlhers,

Towards dubbed

was more

in

the Marcos

making

government. nlost

lncludll|g

Becovery

"tile

policy

and

of

tile

Sustainable

Yellow

Report"

(Alburo,

er

for'ward-looking,

and

detailed

a

liberal,

market-oriented

economic

jjm

17 Jalme Ongpin, tragically, committed suicide a few months after leaving governmetlt in late 1986. Iris ldography (Joaquin, 1989) traces much of his depression to having beei t forced to leave governmen t because )nany of ills fellow officials Could not match his strong beliefs and comniltments regarding Philippine development. 61

rehabilitation

and management.

of the

economists

liberal

Tids document

who participated

became

in tile

the principal

rapidly-growing

manifesto antl-Marcos

movement, Immediately

upon

her appolntnlent

1986, Professor Monsod summoned

as NEDA DirecloroGeneral

academics and economists

from the UPSE, the

UP at Los Banns0 tile PIDS, the UP College of Business Admlnistrathm to formulate group

an official,

produced

Re[arm.

comprehensive

Economic

This document

program

submitted

An Agenda

was the

Into

the DA. The Center

faculties for

as file "Agriculture

carefully

assess

findings

became

seen

the

team of

APST's

to assist

briefly

and

In 1987.

economists Department's

principal

1986

the

An Agenda

the Cabinet

for

of the formal on October

1986

1986 the 1987-

Economics

Development

and

Strategy

Team",

at tile time

of the February

Minister

He henceforth

-

1992

Natural

for Action guiding

who

often

upon

of Agriculture° Resources, the

and for

DA essentially

for the Philippine reference

(x2

soon

which

In its policies

an effort

1985.

1986

Their

revolution

after

I)ominguez the Sector and

work

to

of the

Department wits

Minister

of die

(APST, 1987) advocacy.

were

began

members

also the

to

Initial

and

enthusiastically various

and

UPLB, loosely

i_ad hlitlated

adopted Rural

Economics,

at the

in late

Domlnguez, called

and

Studies

agrlcuhure

Moreover,

Agenda

Growth:

and In December

of Philippine

tl_e Department

Environment

and

Policy

Deputy

work.

In May,

underpinning

and

of Agricultural

Policy

state

available

by Agriculture

use

Long-Run

and the NEDA.

Plan.

organized

the

strategy.

basic intellectual

Developme;3t,

DevelopmeJ)t

of the

and

by tile NEDA to the President

for People-Pot¢)ered

Medium-Term

the staff

Recovery

economic

In February

UPLB as the

The

Policy

Reforms

For tile collected These

purposes

of

tills

add up to tile set of policy

lists are:

(I)

PIDS(1987)

of the

Aqulno

and (2)

(1992)

who

Soriano

principal

structural period.

of the

1988)

who

a set

attempted 1

which

in Its first

list

the

government,

actions

and

front

to the debt

as based

on

the official

in

sources,

(Chart

12)

the

"policy

1986-92

of the

International

of

of the

in the

the texts

the

In office,

official

letters

Monetary

restructuring

Initiated

when

government.

months

Ihe government

government financing

on

reforms

by information

Aqulno

which

enumerates

eleven

based

by

of lists

by tile Aquino

g()vermnenl's

undertaken

International

by the Aquino

process

and

pre-1986

era

and

dialogue"

minutes

the USAID.

Finally, reform

government

of tile Aqulno

by tile

assemble

sets out a framework,

measures

submitted

etal.,

¢:ontinued

reforms

lists are supplemented

as part

Dohner,

with

adjustment These

of Intent Fund

objectives

we

set out in Table

pronouncements

the

paper

Table

measures

tl,e framework

1:. summarizes

undertaken proposed

i .

within

by Bautlsta

all of the above the (1991).

Aquino

information

period,

organized

on

the

policy

according

to

t_5

66

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72

IV.

Political Economy Implementation Corazon power".

Aqulno

power

was swept into office

She completed

to being an electoral brownouts

Aspects of Policy Reform in the Aquino Period

her six-year "lame duck"

term In i992 and

activity

The power Aqulno's.

sputtered

public

Investment

electrification. maintained.

In the early

Its economy being

hard, _onomy crony

respond greed.

agreed

upon

Philippine While

very

had

Under with

the

lerms

the

speed

took the option

the levels of infrastructure

five years Immediately

preceding

In roads,

hit

fell

effectivity,

energy.

before levels

irrigation

of

and

but were not

the Philippines

Imported

particularly Nor could

the

since It was crippled

by

stabilization

Fund and

of drastically

spending

record

In the late 1970s,

macroeconomlc

Monetary

output

in the period

particularly

and

of the

origins

had achieved

on

of Metro

power outages.

Marcos

oil shock

tlel_entlcnt

the International

government

its

were attained

with sufficient

with electrical

Worse, econondc

of President

1980s

grappling

due partly

In darkness 18.

problem

heights

powerless,

of the populations

In infrastructure,

The record

of "people

proportion

under the intermittent

generation

The administration

somewhat

more to vainly

that had a substantial

Manila and other major cities groping as Industrial

in 1986 on the s(rength

measures

the World

reducing

public

Bank, the Investment.

had risen by 1,1% In real terms In the

1980, such Investment

_

by 1496 per year

from 1981 to 1985.

:

18 Aqulno

tlmt

|

i|

Despite cosltroversy on whether or nt)t it _w,ls t'onSlllttlio_mll)' lo $lltlltl for I'e-elet'tjcJlt il_i Ih'esltletll, Iher_ wit_i wltlesi'we_tO slle would, l_h's. Aqtlintl, htlwt_.vtq • i|llllotll|t'etl Ihill she ,,vt_tlld

threw laer still-considerable weighl behind victorious from the May 11, 1992 elecwlons. 74

F|tlel

Itnmos,

valltl for /_lrs. t, xpet'l,tliolt ilt_! full, alld

wht_ did

emerge

Tile lnstallallon maintenance

of existing

stabilization Aqulno

program.

government,

the llataan the

Apart there

shortcuts

were

Moreover,

It seems

construction cronies.

costs

that the financing for plant,

and

related

courts, both in the Philippines

emerging.

arraagemeats

funnelled questions

policy

to mount and

part

almost-uncontrolled

of

the

of the

to mothball

of

design

area,

severe criticism of

is not

cĂ—acerhated

the

its

and

Philippine

safe,

substantially of the gain

Its design,

and

that

shortcomings. overpriced

to Maxcos

are still being deliberated

and

the his

upon in the

as well as lsl the U.S. and Geneva. 19

started

her

any subsiantial

prevent

Manila

provisions

which

term

Yet Aqulno ,'rod her adn_lnlstration,

were unable energy

Aqulno

part

billed as the key to meeting

the subject

tl_e plant's

lt_ Its construction

Tl_ese and other

'l'hus when

been

"nuclear-free" that

as

was the earl)' decision

of the Mett'o

has however

is evidence

taken

reduced

as well as the

of the new, 1987 Constitution0

needs

the

capa('ity,

tlr_stically

The BNPP has been

power

from

gesJerating

the problem

with the support

and construction

Constitution,

was

(.'ontpoulldlng

anti future

controversy.

power

capacity,

Nuclear Power Plant,

increased

financing

of additional

the

effort

problem

the

power

tl_rough

problem

the six )'ears of her term,

to acid generating from

was already

worsening

power

or reform

to the point

of the

brownouts.

19 The BNPP case Is under deliberation in the U.S. as well as Genevq because an American firm -Westinghouse - undertook the design and construction of the plant ....Get!eva is the venue oF :the Inte r,mtl(mal Courl ol'.]ustlee, before which tl_e Pl!l!lr_phie Governnlent:llas sottghl redress of Its claim that Westinghouse was negligent in design and also aided and abetted the absconding of l'hlllppine funds related to theBNlSP. .. ! i:::

75

'!_Gettlng Its Act Togetll_r_._ general

concern

administration quite

of could

clear and

or worse,

competing

constrained

the

of the

private

consumers,

and

even

in and

to solve

the

areas

tile

resolve

wrong

the

Interests

parastataI

action lnt'htde

Philippine

multinational

oil

inadequacies

in the

for Declsloll_.

Table

seemed

InfuriaUngly

inaction)

with

those

t'elated

on

tightly any

the energy

and

to the implications

for

of these

the

and

underlie

Oil Company,

concern

slow,

factors

clearly

(or

management

the problem

Political

and

National

companies,

Aquino

combined

government,

government's

Ilere

ti_e more

the

it seemed

factors

and

where

directions.

exogenous

of

political

of

l+roblem,

to "get its act together".

resources

The

i,etlevatttm

is one

Yet action

and

pov_@r problem,

of the

seem

of the Aqulno

privatlzation

policy,

Interests

fiscal

explanation

not

pressing,

muddling

events,

energy

The power

tile

of

the influence

welfare

of urban

factors,

¢

Context the

1986-1992

the context

period.

Tile table

of tile decisions

took

too long

tasks

of reform

to take,

on

confronting

that the

provides

and

tJte most

Important

the Aqulno

power

the

1:7 enumerates

background

government

energy

government.

"76

important

problem

took. and

events

information or did the

on

not take,

myriad

of

or

other

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.._u 78

The

Record of PolicyImolementation In Table

1G of Chapter

initiatives

of tile

framework

suggested

2.

We

now

informaUon

by Bautista

examine

The

been

between

to 1992.

leadership

1986

as well as

added,

some

In the lmndllng

(1991)

which

which

were

the

of

(1991)

of

16

at what

policy analytical

in Chapter

and point

is presented framework,

implementing

Information

aspects

and

the

earlier

Table

information

the various

the concern.

79

in

selected to

introduced

taken,

llautista

provide

of the political

finally

of

according

was

This

dlstrlllutlng

We also

outline

enumerated

administration. wilit

an

arranged

initiatives

is consistent

dimensionhas

factors,

the

of tile Aquino

table

presented

administration,

as tile the actions

tile six years 11_

Aquino

3, we

on

the policy

area.

during in Table

but actions

lmi_ortat_t

provide

a time by year

exogenous

particularly

on

i

_'._

0

_

_

~

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_

'_

-_1 i

-+._

:;3,

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:

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¢_

lrI

_

©c

6-_,..=,..

o _

'

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_,,+

= __-_

__ _ A i_i

-,,,-

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,I,

b-

P_

o

_. ._ _

o-,

o_" o_ .. Im <

I

-,_

R i_

=8

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--'m

_--_ _

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--:-

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lack

of an ImplententaUon

the assessment

of the Aquino

of tile reform

measures

timetables for

the plan, tile MTDP. pvogr_.ult

_tnd the

measures

with

exist

agreements to adopt

that

level

of

targets

achievement quite

low.

Medium-Term various

tile

Also,

More population

and

of the

Aqulno

taken,

despite

as soon

Plan may

or not

these

the

in

the

it may

be

paper.

as a whole

agreements

governance

not be considered

The vast emphasizes

of speed>,

expectatlotts or

undoubtedly

formed

part

at least

of this

financillg

and

the USAID.

agencies,

government

In this ianaiysls

that

the

as

It is to the

may

according

manclatory

expectations

of the Philippines

as possible.

implementable

process.

in

it is clear

or. actually

reform

in the

reform

adjustment

contained

purposes

in

have to the

across

the

of government.

observers

avowals

the

by

in tile Philippine

WB and

timetables

targets

to be taken

structural

financing

for

contained

the

explicit

covered

is t!m tariff

(oiltained

of

explicit

of conmiitment

administration earlier

Plan had

measures

with'tile

lnternalional

however,

of most

t_trgeis

nor

tile five years

as explicit

agreements

timetables

agencies

generally,

accomplished

whether

and

for

in

Is that most

specific

Development

Ikll: _tt_ci some

_he implementation

Development

ministries

the

such

tile the

staled

relatively

with

without

activities

slatflliz_tti(m the

tile

planned

reform

to this lack of time frmues

as part of fin:tncing

there

inappropriate

rarely

macroeconotttit:

pledged

fitlanclng

were

that has to be faced

of policy

Medium-Term

specific

clear exceptkan

progranxs

While

and

record

were

The

reforms

Tile only

governmetlt's

been

undertaken

outcomes

but policy

One difficulty

administration's

for lmplenmntatlon,

macroeconomic

possible

Schedule.

were

majority the

with which

intplententatlon. reasonable Yet

of the political we therefore

of seeing

of commentary

slowness

achievable.

84

Is one

of the Filipino the reforms on the record actions

It is arguable,

were

of course,

i.e.,

technically

these

popular

expectations

equation

of the policy

economy

will also

refer

to tile

appropriate,

timetable

for

actions lmnosed on the Aqulno administration

by popular expectations for policy

outcomes.

A. Aspects of tile. Po!!_cyRefer R.g:L_.¢..O._ In the following implementation discussion

we shall

of policy

of the various

reform aspects

cases from the actual experience on the policy decisions clearly

not only

relevant,

particular

actions

by the Aquino

will be Illustrated

and actions,

exogenous

aspects

of tl_e record

administration.

with examples

and

or pt_lh:y reform In tl_e Plllllpplnes.

the result only

Including

discuss

not cm outcomes.

of policy

actlous.

The specific

The focus is

Outcomes Many

of

or Impact

other

are

Influences

are

events.

8

The specific attempts policy

at policy reform achievements

slmllowness

[he period;

and development sector"

coalition

below

supporting

(4) the shortsighted

among the policy makers; In policy

n_aking; and

(6)

capacity

for policy

international

agencies

are also Important

are each quite

are:

and end

government's

last tWO factors

aspects of tl_e Aquino

to be discussed

at the beginning

of the political

cl_aracterized

"private

but closely Interrelated

reform

lengthy,

and C) below.

85

administration's

(1) the concentration

of the Aquino Aqui,lo; visions of

(3)

period;

(2}

the instability

economic

aqd

lmplemel_tation,

factors. these

and

in separate

that

of the

factors.

The

the role of

Since the discussions

are placed

the

adjustment

(5) the co=_tlnui,_g dominance the effects of exotlenous

of

on the

sections

(B

The Concentralion

I.

_"1 ui no's

of Achie_,cntCILt_.l'owal'¢Llh.c_J_.L_.'h_JlLng and h'!!(I of

Term.

A simple

enumeration

achieved

by

Aqulno

harness

is quite

and

officials

her

government and

the

Impressive. were

revealing

- particul,'u-ly

the_e Aquino

were

few months

In 198G

special

Banking toward and

that

abolished;

Phllipph_es

initiated;

most

hard,

of six years

doubt

and

policy

that

worked

and

also

initiated

completed

examination

completed

the

to achieve

- in 1986

after

The

trade

reform reform,

large

a host

changes

of olher

of that record,

in Table

most

of its major

February,

and

in sugar,

coconut,

19.

in 1992,

in

actions

however

to the specific

done

in

Aquino

agrarian

are assigned

- as has been

in was

continuously.

continued

least

reform

President

of tl_e tax system, achieved

was able

in office

be any

at

A closer

achieved

Ihe _otal

commodities,

programs,

he|'e.

to economic

is

years

It is clear reform

that

actions

during

its last

In office.

were

Bank of the

worked

exchange,

administration

Itwas

effort

They

If the actions

actually

Its first year

cannot

set of reforms

to enumerale

related over

traditional

of foreign

too nunierous

fertilizer

busy.

a brofid

tl_e management

during

There

liberalizatioq

implemented

the

admi'nistration

demonopollzed

financial

when

of tl_e actions

that

credit

system a broad

that a broad

the

monopolies

that the were

the

provided

financial

programs

a new lease

and

that form;

pump-prhnlng

National

liher_dlzation

l_alted

tn_plemented: and liberal

Phllli)pine

that a whole

8_

and the

on life, and

program

a rehabilitation

ngar-lan

program

Bank

reform

beef,

the

mewed

privatizatlon with

for the

relatively

slew of tax reforms

and

Development

was accelerated, program

was Implemented.

wheat

were

Rural

rapidly decreed:

in 1992, major tariff

reform

movements

program

413 - finally

became

tile higllest

levels. 20

Not much

took place In foreign

as represented op{_ratlbnal.

In economic

by F.O 470

- the

E-O 8, following

reform

was

to July

26,

exchange much

weaker

up on F.O ,170,

implemented

policy;

and

version

of EO

was drafted

in tile interim,

the

up to

from

mid-

1987 to late 1991. From governed

March

according

into office,

after

popularity

rating

promise wltil

25

to the "Freedom a Constitution

and

for

her

been

the

- a period

The

drafted

and

Aquino

was still to be elected

popuhuion

and

16 months,

approved

international

COulltry,

of

Congress

"l'lle Filipino

renew:d. and

1987

Constitution".

had

was vo.ry lligh.

of change

goodwill

1986

in pleblcite,

was euphoric

Comnlunlty

with

fairly

OI)A wits offered

tier the

brimmed

generously

and

freely. Dttrlng willing only

the initial

to implenlent too

EDSA.

willing

fi'om

found

Secretary

Romuio,

Monsod.

The

in Minister had

Marcos i

period. ]

ii

iI

the

their

services

at tile IIPSI.'., and

Ministers

wile

Agriculture

Ongpin,

in

wile

recommending

were

the

willing

but

paper"

book"

from

tllelr NEDA

of Finance

were

also very

never

were

following and

UPI.B.

advice

"yellow The

in

UP

Budget

Director-General

found

a set

who

months

"white

and

up tlle ball on

for years

exciting

to use

Mltra

:it the Ministry picked

the

"Braun

were

of analysts

in the

Secretary

staff

of the Ministers

recommendations

recommendations

a man

of fiscal

implemented

of act.ion

reforms

that

during

the

21 I

•

ii

20 President Fldel Ramos suspended it soon after. 21 Joaquht Leung.

EDSA, several

accumulated

professional

JMme been

after

to volun!.eer

economists

economists

II

tile

"l'l_ese included

book"

they

period

(1990),

from

signed

it tiuring

atx interview

87

with

I_is first

finance

month

in

Undersecretary

office,

ile

Ernest

It helped session.

speed

By its

many

of

also

not

would

during

present

of the policy

not

not

What

prepared

to exercise

terms

lack

Only

(CBPO) created

to provide

Finally,

much months

many

ImPlemented

wanted

consensus after

of

In 1989

EDSA

effectively

reforms

that

Congressmen

notion

that

regardless

office

of

tim

were were

.Executive

of the primacy

actions

that

because

of

- one

much

possible

almost

and

the Congressional st,ppor!

had

been

with

Budget

proposed Aquino's

a_ware of tile fragility

very

and

her

and the election of Congress.

88

period-

the

other

Congress

proposals were of

in

often

economic

Planning

Office

hy the legislators.

early

inherent

In

19.86

were

caution

of the coalition

dial

but as responsll_lllty.

I_y ('t)JtSel|StJS, aJRI size worked

throughout

each

bills

needed

both

was

appreciation

should

her Officials

and

draft

Into

a major

time

Neither

and

so hadly

President

to deal

its actions

exposes;

support

and

Fly the

over.

In general,

Congress

Aqulno

how

came

introduced

efficiently.

th:lt sl_e saw not as power

to Ilnple!ltent as

was

analytical

thne Congress

President

and

legislation",

was

the

had learned

the analytical

Site was very

her to office

much

col_stiluents,

term.

of Congress

that

Members

in

from

entergence

Its role optimally.

Implications.

very

the

This Is not to say that

reform

with

in aid

In their

conservatism.

of

Legislative,

dismal.

the

of economic

tl_e Cabinet

their

appalling

of the

lmi_lententatlon

is that

to deal

of "Inquiries

brought

on the simple

has heen

Is clear

and

productively,

never

actions

of reform

prepared

Congressmen

terms

of Aqulno's

reform

many

and

was not in

Issue.

In 111e politics

were

16 months

on July 26 1987

exist.

factor

first

the

to

that Congress

inlt_rests

objected

on the prerogatives

Tile record operation

sp¢2ciiIi

have

to derail

was encroaching

_ great deal

Congress represunls

nature,

whom

accomplished

up tile implementalion

even

to achieve

in the

crucial

and had She as 16

2.

Th.e Shallow Coalltlot_gunportlnn "I'l_e coaittlon

that

brought

Aouino

Aquino

into

power was very broad

- at least

initially. Itencompassed ideologiesl'romthe mid-rigl_t to the told-left of the ideological spectrum,and was essentially united by no more than an agreement ,i¢ on the need to replaceMarcos. Itincludedthe "enlightenedbusinessmen",which counted among itsmembers the managers toldowners of enterpriseswhich had not benefited had

from the cozy, parasitic

developed

Business

Club,

with each other. which

In the

particular.

22 There

(Advocated

- .'i grouphlg

and businessmen - like Executive

Aqulno

among

organizations

agrarian

reform,

peasant

organizations

who

Finance who had

the other

and

also

threw

of the impetus

their

rural.development were Tadeo

and

was

Aquim)

and Jailed on criminal

support

appol.tcd

In 1986 and 1987.

by President

liberal

for the Aquino

demonstrations

i

men

of the Makatl

who would

Secretary beloHged

later

Jalme

become

Ongpin.

in

to the M;Inlndigan!

- most of wl_om were lawyers

also supply some other

would

Jalme

i

Its board

lawyers

government.

|

were the members

of hum;m rights qdvocates

groups

much

arrested

that Marcos and his cronies

Aqulno cabinet

members

secretary Joker Arroyo.

provided

appointed

these

government-

were also

and

The peasant peoples'

Antong

counted

prominent

relationships

a

key

and left-leaning

"sectorai"

hehl_d

Tl_eir support

Aquino.

government's

agricultural

growth.

to se.lor

positions

leader

the

of

Initial rhetoric No leaders In the

pro-agrarian

lie served briefly as Commissioner to draft

charges

tile

unrelated

and

1987 (:onstlt.tion,

on

of the Aquino reform

in the body

and

was later

i() his advocacy.

. .

22 Mr. "lloy Blue" delRosario. I'rosident also a memimr of the Makaii llusi.ess (:luh. 89

Fidel Ramos' Finance

Secretary,

was

The

extreli|e

Hght

Ihe

COIltllltllllS|-Jl|[ltlL'll('(_tl

Nt;w

rebelliotl

disrupted

periotl

alid of

Ltttacks

Aquino's

illlellllll._

wilhill

IIIICdlIII)IS

ill

[IOllll, ling

ItlcidelllS

area,

The

I(} lt)92. Ihe

leftist The

_,|elr()

respite

1987

bad

first

ilnd

IlJllr

ill

rebels

Alln)'

_el)els

rehels

% ill'l{'r

198{).

_lililar)'

fl'Olll

Hrezl,

extrelne

I:_'ht Ilill _' |_)8(,,

wIIh

|'ehels

Ih()ught

ill'e

I;ll[_(.,lill[_ leftist

Ill(,

illltl

ft'Hr

ill

l_OV(?l'lllllt'lI|

inilitar)'

alltt Ill

d HIIII(I._I lilll|llill

tile

"]'h(_il"

leas{ Illl'

tile

the

seven

coup

IIl(}._t St'l'tc)llS IO |)e

behind

Metro

Manila

thr()ugh

1986

a%%il._;_illalil)ll SQUaLlS ill

pf)li('(,.

1()_7

-

through

[(tl't't,_S

ll) IlaVL, li(,hled

(li._ltll'l);lll('(,._

The p;l('t ,_o()lt det(,t'lciratL,

HIs()

left

Ai.|tXJllO,

Ct)lltillUOuSly ill

It)Ilal'a.%s

eXil'('lllL_ Icdt i_ ,'lls() Stl_,llt,('lt'{I

eXIl'ellle

IIi()tllll(;tl

It) CatlSL, Ul|t't,.l'lliillty

;list)I'(Intillllt't|

tile

IIL,V¢;I" t.llLIol'St2d

i_lllIOSt

Illtlital')'

)'('ill

a_)d

Jliltl

-

_()V(._l'llilllL'e

The

tlesi_lled

Manila

ne[lotlated,

P('(qd{'.%'

watch,

lilt'

military

There

wh(,n

was

a brief

;1 il(211('e I}iicf

was

vi(datiOltS

,'llld

a('('IIS;IIi(}IIS

()f

faith.

It was

als()

_.¢Jnlinistration

fruiwl

inlplentelltatiozl, resistance and

Callz|hle

would

Inequities p(_lltlcal

of tile

o1r ill

(!xerci._ll|l]

policy

have

tile

th(:

('l_;llili(}tt

p()|_lllar

tl._;ll.l(,, political _l'_;t i_olitical

re'florins

Illat

tllal

iIOtiOll will

of

were

th(}ugl)t

the

p;lli_al_le,

po[)r,

Io policy

()f wealth, "invisible

maklnl

l.

O0

ottly

"p(llili('al

n|itjc)lrity"

will"

A(luino in

wit() for are

renlaiiIs

the

Aquin(), ('apahle -

support

fllld called

f()rlll(2{I

invisihle

polio), despiLe

(_ll political

COlTeCt

supp(_rt the ahl_

tile

ilnplementati()lz

will is f_lmded

Ih(. _ illlel'(L%l._; or those

l_h),.,_i('al,

i_rev('illed

denotes

att,'lck(_,{I

di,_trlbutinn "i'he

r)r

the

itltel-e._t._,

providing

muscle,

|laconsequential

,_hall()wnes._

Ill pOptll_tr

l'l'Olll vested

many

analy._;ts

lit(:

[or

by

('()alitloll Given

or

-

tile

l_rovh, llng and

titus

3.

PoEtl].3mtalailLl The

fat:! thal

It togetlter

apart

obvious

._oon

tile

ct,aliticm

I'rcmt the nl'ter

the

l!!)._A

illlercst

gt'OUl_S

!_olillcal

recovery,

their

lhal

claslled,

followed,

c'elll(,r

ll;ll'klll'llllllll

eX,-li-erb_te llilllllil-),

tlio

rt.qlt, lA iillll IVllliln

lilitl

lll_l_li

('_lllOi'.

Givel)

illl

set'lois

i_lid lit oxll_ildoil

long

ilel_)'5

ill

ildlniliisllfllioil polllioil$

i_l(lt_%_l ,

tlelll)lo,

policy 11o[orill of

Aquino

i!overnnlolil fOCUS was

clurinl_

lilt'

Ihe

P_ogralli. 111 liar

tile

While

llilft_

w_il

I_:l_'

the

Tilt,

AilliillO

and

was

and

emerged

and debales rigtlt-of-

lilll)'

llt'illll

Ihe

ec_)nomi¢

clivlsive

cllllllict._

m_de

and

conservative,

illrelid)'

A¢llllllil

li'tiill

ll[

scq'ved

('iliif(,d

olist

lin Milssilcre

91

ivilh

._ulqecl

Ilil,

Io

h 7 Ihe

l)iirl-¢lw liikiiig,

_l[

dt_llilte,

illlill'k

llie

call

Io

added

Slil_l_Orl

al 10,i.%1pui)licly,

the

[I-Olll

h(,$ililll('),

discu._,_i_lll

llast,

Ihal

w_)f righl-(i[-

(_ll(,ll

.%t't#illiilt|

lll_llliicletl

itli,lihig)'

Alliiili(I

I_ IliliCll

Aqllillli's

ui_ to

foi"

her

ver) ° sll'ollll

illl(;rell$.

in inll)l_lii_nlaliiln ill

r_l'oiill"

I%llirl'ol,

ltlionlion

"Meiidioia

Ihlif

iilld

Ihal

i_i_c't_%s_.%;lli(I

is fOUlld

ilgl'ill'ilil)

ilt, llr

_llilllll

Ihe dela)'_

llci'iod

"gl_,nilhl_ to

ill)ill;

dolninillll

exlinilll_

i_llllp,_illll

by

witl

with

illliT_lW

ciirlelllly

1"111811),l'iicu$$od spurred

;)jill

Io lll_iliilc'l'illii"

I]_llllllilil,tl

also ¢lifslliided

nlakilig

viewpoinls

c_)l_tiou._,

1¢)i4l_._il w_il

tle('i._i#lli-_li;ll_illt_.

TI_i_g__lG.__l!__, A niajor

power

It) hold

governnlent

noisy

I_fflil*) ° lillil_ilill

ldt_llhlgit*_il

/ol" o1" ilg_lilst

of

little

i'iillf(,l.

t'Cllilliltllll(,lil

¢lul (if

Ill_ll

had

oi" national

and

ill,l_illt'._

lllll'{q'lilliil)"

out

new

lll(._ laSk

ba.,_ically

"l'he._,

in ll¢lvt'rlinll'lil

IIIIITIIW

the

acrimon!ous,

o1_ her

iillt_l * I:l.,llrii;ll)'

Aquiiio'l

(lOVCl'lllll(.'lll's vilrlollS

lefll._l

il ),i,ilr

illSllillod

hack

As to

ttl ptJwer

I_tarcos

intere._ts

frequ_:nlly

iliill

gelling

down

i'll)ltlrt,,

tellfliin._

AtlU[no

rev(dution.

differing

fell illld

,if

buckled

lsl the

Aqulllo

I_r_tullht

obJecllve

resurgent

inevltal)ly

which

ainiost th_

Ili_

charliclerizinll

Cilllll_r_li_listv_

hiid

I_eeil

a )°_al"

crlillillg

'° ol" Januar),

of

)ill

explicit

pilssed

a proljram, 22,

Allrllliiln

1987..

pletlge

l)_fore

the

and

thai

Prior

to tile

incident,

only

el)Ra|led

ill planning

Reform

tile NF.DA - given

were

a p rogranl.

I_artlclpating

and encouragement

provided

with

groups tile

calling

II|:issat*l'e"

for agrarian

Aquino's

d_,monstrations

had

become

Mentliola

Bridge

just outside

violence,

during

which

and

Presidential

Reform, The

of

practically

were

relatively

drofls

became

agribusittess eschewed the eleventh

ripe

but witl_uut

the official

was still to be reorganized

for

The

on .Ltnuavy

Palace

Socrel;Irlt_s

were

and

Finance

and

were

also

Environment

app(_inled

ht int|_letl_t,t_tl,dh_tt restrictive

Interests

made

lit.elf

all <)f the CAC's drafts i! st, Vt, lill

and

sIpned

('htso

itn I!() hurriedly

il(Ivist'l-S

t,._l_Otlsil)g

In

and

The CAC

Agrarian Resources.

CA(:

at least

of the worked

lG drafts

drafts

sttl_sequent lobbies

the end,

and

Aquino

t-c)l_l_lt,tl I(_gether, ('orlst'l'v_llive

of

by the CAC

The

as Ihe lattdowner known.

into

for agriculture

The

in scope,

at

into the farmers'

Natural

The initial

ittltl hroatt

OlU_osilioll

police

and a representative

to produce

Reform.

and c()nst:rvatlve

the

Planning,

CAC.

the

held

incident.

and

to the

four nt(mths

Agrarian

promise,

tilt: most con¢c'vn

B:mk of the Philil_Pines

and calls for

by

to look

the Sc,crc, tavies of l_conomic

i}ei.l$;.lIl|

22 tlid erupt

killed

Committee"

wilh

of

demonstration

the day after the blendiola

nlore

hy

violence.

by Aquino

to Implement

hottr,

campaign

l_er

demo_lslrators

the clock for about

liheral

of

Action

Justice,

Orders

demonstrations

the ihesitlt, nllal

including

Presh.lent

around

the .Executive

Agrarian

{If

A "Cabinet

of the Land

the

process°

was

13Ul);llllllenl

repeated

fulfillment

of Ihe Cabinet

Agriculture,

President

office

Guard.

reform,

After

14 peasant

was appointed

agrariail

- h:d

of tilt'

[)lit. _ td' it St'l'Jt_._ 1)1"tlt-'lilt)llStl'atk:lllS

w,|s

reform.

of

WilS conlposed

N_m_e _ffricers

Monsod,

firm leadership°

'*Mendiola

complaiilts

or l)ireclor-General

of the DAR, wlHch

fulfillment

the

interest

In the NI!I)A

blessings

The

tile

at

views 23.

i

23 The advisers inchtcletl l:Jllltll('o Set'l(q;lr)' illltl l;lll(I Ililllk (;lltlirlllall Jainle t)nglHn, l.and Bank Pres!denl I_et_gracias \'istatl and I'resiOelllial legal Adviser l'eodoro l.ocsin Jr. L/i_on tile signing _)1 i!t) 229. the President warned the cabinet q2

'['lie signed

dral't,

to determine.

worse,

to pass

the

and

of tile

Tile mullilude

in tile form

of Athninistrative

has

liueli

ulwleiti,

Aquino

period.

Aquino

in the ¢vilical

llehers(m

Finally,

The

Ah, arcz

MAR Mhlister

- In April

Fel+rtiary

and

earl)'

resigning

hi March

1987

post

Philil}

was named

became

sale

1"lit Juice embroiled

under

the

was

lit till

fillt,d

Agrarian

lilt2

lteform

was

I'll'st

•

25 lllitl

i.

"i'"

tllht'.r

slaFetl

Ior

Reform

to

and

the

tile

22

iWCel)lt.'tl

tile

Senate

oVeVllVit'illg

!.987

Sl-illll

on

if

iWt_lgl'alll

I't-tml

hllltl lille

t';llllli)l Reguhtlituts'"

to be

Ilad

I)AR

by

activist

bit.

for

less

Ah'arez'

than

in

a )'ear,

I.ABAN ticket.

The

months

unlil

place. 25

The

voliltilarily

its

named

Mr. DAR

stlvl'etltleretl

OlIWIII'OS.

AS it

for

result

tilt: ('.al+lm+t.

Ill' i ml_lt, nlt, ntetl ulilil alltt lie" the law are tlrallotl +'lntl issued

]It%VS

t2itlil+t_

named

been

for four

1 988

Program

Ihe iti+plJililtllellt

Atlttitlo's

to take

f(}l"

last

Ministers

at

Reform

Antl-/_larcos

h)' an ()fli,'er-lli-Charge

on July

i

The

]J[-|.._ lliOlilh_,

Mcml+et-s that everylmtly had bt, itt, r stti+l+t+l'l li() 22<1, tw It art: lih-et:lov (;e,_t+,ral Nollta I_ltmstltl h,lt Ihe ('.al+lnot In .lets 1089. 2,t In general, all "h'nplemenlln B Rttles altd l!xecutlve llrattch.

mailers

for ihe CARL,

of Agrarian

till'tiugll

tile

Alvarez

ruhwm

Ilgrilriltll

Regulations"

of the

lit: itrliWhlllll)'

All

to rult

DAII Secretary's

leadership illist;lit

- anti

March.

To make

of the CARP still had

of Iht_ I!!)SA revolulion.

1987.

Ill Collgress

its implementation.

structures Rules and

of Agrarian

tvas lialtiotl

Congress

to be issued. 1"1

the

aftermath

Law.

of Ihe Secret,try

(it" t,x't,ll

Minister

for

it took the government

Reform

implementing

needed

l,tllsellhPtl

was thai

did llOl .assure

of "implemenling

by tile President,

I.e_d_crsbi.tl.

1988

Ordel's

of the program

_dlowud for uxtugltlctl debate

Agrarian

of the CARL In July

organization

CARP

prm, isions

The elld result

Comprehensive

be secured.

necessary,

critical

to tlct'idu llgaill

in tile Executive.

the passage

funding

left many

This failure

¢,nd hlactioil moLLLJ_

EO 229,

of

NIiI)A

utlless

by the

.

Mr..!u iCe waS:::li.iroi|_tlll_|lit fill'l)' |961(].% lit ;IC.181, :!it , Wits

t_l lilt, Iiillllt,tl

31iliixlvy tll" .'Xll!itltlllllO _i_ ]\_i_lillil _Ct'It'I+IIV

ill' Agriculitiro,:+_ilil ;hlie: ii)st;.hu iii_lvt, d ill ih0 I)t,l+ai-tiiiciii Natul+itl Iteiour(Tes. iwhT<_£+i iie sevVt,tl tim l lildt, ist, cl-ctltr), until 93

tit lht, lair. 19711s ill lht.' llol_iitllnt, nt

cJl linvironnielll iiild tlrafle_d to tile I)AR.

tile controversy

rt,gardhtg

II1(: land (,vt.,I)ri('hq;

ill(+ithml.

I_h..luh'o

resigned

in

July 1989. 26

S0.!!liago_Zt Judge in July

1989..qanliago

tough-talking

at tlle

Appointments. l)uild

on

A.b_ll. serious

Aquino

Congressman

group

of Congressmen however,

Appointments,

front

extensive refused

Congressmen

was

regarding

-'lgricultural

l.ankaalL essentially

in Cavite whether

()._mt,ila

that

use. within

been

l:lnded

Santiago

to

had

<)llh'e,

phtns

l)h)(-ked in 1902.

out

I'))•tlle

of December

member

1989.

appointed

of the

version tile

her

small

of the

CARl..

Commission

interests

be+It

on

within

and

appolntmel+t.

not

being

It) take

a

use

"i'lte property kilt)meters

of wr<)ngd(ling

on

She Instead

a key

Again

from

conversi,)lt

by The Comnlission

x_is drowned

l_ro-farmer

of tile

40

only

for Vlce-l'resident

.qanthtgo.

()ffice,

[(it' Ahad

conversion

She

the first week

Ill)oral,

lit_, chose

that

al+l+ointment

had

took

reastltl

JlOt tile

26 Mr.'Juice was cleared (A._ti-Graft) court i,t 1992.

who

:Is a graft-busting, lasted

l),)lili('al

ran

+luring

lobbyit+g

to industrial

or

hlpht,r

to act on Abad's

the

Province,

ccmfirmati,m

I,w

tile

formally

Another

controversy

Abad,

stint

as DAR Secrelary

Nattzralitation.

not to re:ti)i)oint

supporting

Iaa_ilP.k.aan.

and

wlt(, sttsl+t,clcd

John

decided

tot)k her turn

spectacular

r(2_'tlSt'(.]

of the l+eriotl

never with

but

on Ms.._;tntlallt>'s

Florenclo

of Congress,

fellow

being

Sellat()r

attempt

young

a brief

let)st as +a bast,

111tPnll)olr

COIl l)

._antlag()

of Intmigrati(m

']'he CA debate

In the aftermath,

outside

had

CA meml_ers

.+l Mlnlsterlal CA

l)elens()r

DAR, after

Sever+tl

aplx)Inlment.

Abad,

had

Commissioner

slx months

IIIOS|

Miriam

pro-farmer

of a particular was located Soullt

of tile

by

colllirmed

tile

by

hi+

_;tance

in

tile

piece

it+ Barrio

of I_lanila.

official

even

land

(Village)

The issue

classification

country's

of

of

Satldigilnba),an

was tile

l_rol)el-l)' llliis illi

should

l_l;Ic'c, I)L,f(_I(,

l_IS.S('tl illlO c)Wllt, l'.,ihll_ ill (._×('t:pll()II

pr()t:eed

I() lh_.' (:AIII'.

_11i_nd, ;illd

prop(_rly

(l{_il[

l)ene/ici,'Iries. lh:iI

wilh

lhe

(_lli()lJoli,l],

(if

illitl

tll'llwlh.

w(iuld

illill TI)

ilitll£:ill(_

ruled

Illc_ ¢onversio_l

Mr,

lh;it

ilpi_olnlnienl

1_87,

NI].I)A,

w_s _l)l)oilllod

Govei-nmonl r(._volulloii Reform

ill _llile ilntl

ri

l_2.

A(luln_i's

l)i-olram

was poised,

_eci'(_lary.

was lonll

'Thus, rc, peillctl

her

l,_sl, for

Ili_

_t lh(,

ll'lilil).%,

_llUil)'

lilt'

r(_/'ornl

i)1-_il_e1-1), li(:Icl ilS iuduslrial

tlc't'i.%i(lll

arid

illlill),$l$

lll,iWc'_'il

i_('llllillni("

ililtl

the

l>¢_Glnle (:olifusecl

ll,lLl_'._ll{"

t'lluily

l)ll

l_lllklillll

l_(_lic) , illllJ

I_l'owlh. hi

wlis 11o[ (-()ver_(I

April

iv_s

who

1990, iilitl ilo

iii£_ _ll(l

[)y Ille

il_ltl

h_lviiltl

Iho

tloblilt:

h_£_ii il Ilion

iil(_ _u-_lico

CARl.,

_llld

that

dr,_illed

by

lllo

tlt, i-l_li'_llll)lls

_ldliliiiislrillion's inilll(_ill(_lll_ilioll,

IJv@i" l_inkll_lli, s(,pporilve

1.ooiiB0

lolllJ-IOrlll

il

ii_l('r Ill_ll

uillil

£J_'el" four ilie

"t'enli_rpiec(_

lie

also

o£

her

ill|ld-ill_lnllered,

oMel_ll Ill _ relio_l

Uliclersoerol_li'y

sel'vc, tl -is _eei-Ol_lry

it w_is ()lily

ll_eil

lolil_ol _ tully llelll_lilliil

_ecrel:lry lie

use of

iC_ilii1_ l)lilns

_o1".5_V(_l'ill i11o111]i5,

pi'iit't,._s

Aliuino

Assisi:inl

sh()ul,l

()fli_-l_11._. _i_lv()[':lli, S ililel

ll£_tlvt:(:ll

Non-i'(inlrovel-.siill

Ilion

il(llc)ll

I11_ ll(_W _l_rilriilll

)' illlll

llild

Ihe CAI(P;

in

st'l'(_(_llillll

i ln(l

_x_ulLI t,11,e I)I,I_'(: _Is

hlduslriill

of 111_ issue

hlll'l't'_il

i)rolierl),

resillll(:(l

bul'(_lut:r,_t

lht"

ft._-'lliil(_'.5 _if i,()%t.llllli_ill , ,,'

[.allkaali

Pop hlnl.

o£_i¢e 0£ tile

illlti

l'5) ° I'_ill_tl

l)resid(_nl

14overillneiit

nll,ll_'l;

Illi_ IIiitl£_-()l/

AI)_(I

)'

f11._ l)(,lw[.i.il

proce£_cl ouiside

illip()illllnl2111s

bellevecl

career

Ihe

would

l,eonll, Ilrll(_lilili

thai

in

iu pi()vilu-iill

I() tht, r(:s,)luti()u

ilr_llllll,

t'(illll'OVt,

5hill

('ARI)

I11_1! lhi: ('()llV/Jl$J(ill

inl,.,1t,sl_,tl

l)_:¢:u _,)n(,d

Ih(.' /Ullllilnii_lllill

"('lie l_ilikil_ill

I_$' the

iu i11(_ i,lUli¢,_li_11c, (-_ulw,lsi_u

illlvili'illt_.%

(ill

i'llllVt,l

Ih¢,. lHclll(.lll

ih.,vt, hil)lll_,lll

Ill(Ill)'

._li'ill(_l_), , p:l]'tlculiil'ly

Secrelary i

le;l¢linl]

llliIl

111'

/%lille( illslSl_.,ll

c)wllers

J11vo]_il)l_ lle,'lled

|lllhlSllliill#_illhlll

f;ll'lll('l'.5,

lliv,,Sl()1-s

|lii_.r(,sl(_d

pr(>('ess

l)VC_l_('1"l)' W,I._ _'_veit,(l

llie

lhe l_rOl_(_lI}, |I_I_I :111eilcly The

lilt"

lhi'

Mr.

lh_I

Tllos£,

prolic, rly.

(in

lllke

ill his

yelir_i

Iho

i'(_liren_0ll[ sill¢e

Coinpi-i.)li_llSiV£: protlr_lnl"

_AR

' Ililil

since /ronl

Llle EDSA Atl.ill-iii lhe

n

CARP

4.

SJlczlit The

le .LVJsim]I

etmflit-ts

ill the ideologies policy elites

making over

suri'oundhll,

team,

.lose

anti

Co,lcepc!on

industrlaliz;ttion

behind views

ol'ten

as til[f_l)L! by tile

Secretary

first

t'2abinet,

miRhlily

anti

nlhlhnlze

l_overnlllelll

hold

de[hlite

agrarian managerial holieS1

Ramon

slrivlnlI

blltra

saln_2 grouilds

ill'St

as Setrelarj,

l}rol_lenls

27 V_'ilS Ill

l-ronl

('_l|)illel tile

()tin ()f Secretary t'hltl'i|t'

life iltllltt_r

Ill" thl2

thitl "What

in free

strtmg

ill g(,llelIiI,wilh AtlU|llt)'S

,'_r21"ri, I;ir._'

Ak|lls

espt>tlsed

allO

al)tl in

her

t<_ t_vt,rc<mlt, sl,ppc_rl

{7++nt'epcioll,

and

to

his

and

own

also

and

and

)7

ill etlterplise. hJr a

i'_erspettlvt,

AtillJllt)

firm

fal'nt_.,rs,

(_1

imlividual

(:lillt't'l'_t'it_ll'.S |lllth,rst,Clelilrlt,s, Ih|iutl tll JtlVt'%llllt'lllS, IIIll-t'

is gootl

ctmsumers

I()

liberal

'

<>,1 much

2s See Nick Joaquin, Jaime Ongpin the l.nigma: Manager; Jaime v. Ongpin Foundation, blanila, It)90.

A l'rofile

the

api+_.,:ll. llltrlllhi21s(1[

exlllnJlle

iltltl

is good

in

Secretary

iirllls,

(2t'(_ll()lllJt' and

b.ll". "ltqll,ts ,,\h'iilll;Ir,t, It'llldfl',.l.'tl ill at tltscus.,iRm

It)r N,til bligltt;I 17orpot'atio_

did

of exceptional,

Agt+it'tllturt

It'lldt'tl

She

believer

wJlh il SellS{2 for popt|list

Jlt, l_i(,Ji,

¢otllrols,

I_roatl,

lilt: extt.jlthlll iii St,t'l-elill} ' hhlllsOtl, the PlesJtJl,lll

Fcotmmic

prh'e

capacity

_ and

were

of tim Atitlino's

I_artic'ipiltiotl

iwohlt, tn._, 28

a

ofteil

Firms

abolish

was

as

he

whose Imh,stry.

anti _m tile

Industry

I'_et'altlSe

privi|tlzation,

(.)ngpill

wealthy

experience

market-oriented

I<JJ :lgrlctllturc

of her

Import-substituting

strrml I advocacy

.false

tmlerprlse,

in an

ol Trath: illosl

members

Trade

Imslzlesslnen,

t_ accelt, rate

beliefs

anti

lllall+tgelll(rllt

w:ts the

lntervmlti,m

l:lzlllnt'o

excellence

pc_lJt.Jt, s,

differences

of the traditional,

belief due

l)t, lmrtmmlt

lqotlsod

egalitarian

reform,

a strong

ol r i|ll'i_rt-stzl_sliltltilll[

.golita

the various

ill tile Philippines.

protectionist

the

Planrting

forth

anti

{a) the deep

dominance

ulldersland.'ll_ly

rel_resented treated

ILv Aq'uino

governmeul

held

strategy,

manufactt,rer

held

and (b) the continuing

making

eve I

tile C.ARI' al.,,t) reve:lled:

of development

policy

Secretary

IJv. J. u

titus

vtho with

for the countr3,." of

the

Filipino

as

geilel'aled

arid

suppor||n

B Ihese

arid

proposed

Iriu.le-offs

actIons

enlilie$.

alld

"rhcir

of the acliolls

m_asurL._

propo._als

Whi¢ll

Ihus

o11, lille| wilh

ellen

Were did

focussed

not

olllc, l entilies,

a,ld

on

consider oll

directly

Ihe

effecls

file e¢onom),

as a

whole. Most of

of Aquino's

lll=l¢'roecollomic

system

was

commodities

of

for

held

of

sector

II_e Iwo lllajor

as

s_tl tin

privale

lit

also

dol;i),ed

would

presence

lhe

the

ill]

nllihlieltllnce alid

be adversely

levels

lhe

the

Moltelary

Mcll)t)lill;)'

1o the

sI),nilt%l ll),

Ihe

of

This Ihe

policy

Central

.qecrelary

tile

wax ilit

line lit

Iht,

("(llntll),.

"Jhe i-efcllln Ihe f.)it

executive

pioles! closer

needs was

o[" tin

!o

Chalrma_ of of erie

;int.I Ihil5

()[ laril'f

not

Bank

arid

lltll

reform,

were

exchange

"l'wc} represenlalive5

Io

staple

of producers

ih_ard.

thte

of

Price controls

Rarely

foi'eigll

of

hltlustry

pesi). ,tlI

benefit

cmlsumers

|llptlls.

_'rllllllaliies

;i Slil_iig

Ihe

banking

The II.S, Dtfllar value of the

due

anti

for

welfare

Governt)r

Ihlaid,

liltillllllili_llill

iifl_cled

Ihe

lnflueilces

the

savings. 29

its the

¢_f impc)rled and

the

example,

enterprises.

!()

as well

'l'riltle

sontelJiliel

on

for

loans

Of

- ccmsldered.

need

(ll

of

t'fft'cl5

_l" Ihe oll

For

Sl(_wzlrtl,'f

illllleiJil|$

Bt_ard

appreciation

provider

Iht'lr

I)VelIv;ihletl

in

Investments

also

a

responses

al hiRhly

tile

inlerested

which

r;tw

Monelary

given

lloard

ellen

¢(:sl.5 of

firms

lhe

Jml3lenlonl,

private

(_f

little

managenlent.

up(in

basis

supply

import-subslituilnlI

the

their

of farmers and fishermen

often

difficult

of

on

als=l Itad

and not also as

the

file

effects

was

looked

on and

partlcul:uly Peso

,-1till

and farmers,

defended

adverse

cabinet

factors

generally

entrepreneurs were

first

tlolit')

the

of

qilJl_ , was

°°Jndu$lr),"

exantinalion..Ihe

29 This "l_orrower-orlented" view of Ihe fhl;tliciitl ailtl. I_allkiilll s),sleln was l_rewtlelll, despile lhe filcl Ih_ii thl, I=ltililllliilt, sli_itl lit.t,li illil_leliiL'iliilig il Illlliil_:iiil Ilhoi'iill_.iilliltl ili'lllli'iinl siiil't_, I*il41. Till, lillt.rlili#.ill(lll llr(igrliiil trill; in fiil:l ill'It, ll tl#2sei'ibo¢l ;i$ all inill(isilhiit ill Ihl: IMI-'tWlI, ax _l t'ondiliOna|ity for aeces_i to finfln¢iiig.. 30 The two representalk, es or tile private sector ()n the l_lonetary lh)ard were 3|r. Cesar Ihit:naVenttli-a , Ihe (Thai_'man i_f Pil|pinas Shell (;(irpt_rati,m. and =Xlr. ]t._SilS A)'ill;I, ;lit _igi'ihilsiiiessiii.'ln. _Vlit_ii i_lr. Iliieil_tVt.iitiiril reiirl.,tl lit lt)(J(J lie wa_i I'eplllced Ill, Mr. l.uls .l.lll'e.itTil Sr,. iiiii)lhl, r ;igrtliuslnessriliin llui wllh SlrOng lnieresls In Phi]lpplrie"riia:ntifaClttrinl_.

97

The Aquino cabinet's general lack of confidence in an agrlculture-basedstrategy fordevelopment was also consistent with their tendencies toward I$I. President Aquino, with the advice of many in her cabinet, had made many speeches and statements which called for greater attention to agriculture and rural development.

In late 1986 the Cabinet had also approved the Agenda for People.Powered

Development and the 1987-1992 Medium Term Development Plan. Both documents did call for a ruralbased, agriculture-first strategy. In retrospect that Aquino coalition had made the statements on the primacy of rural development and agricultural growth more as rhetorical declarations which were also aimed at garnering the electoral support of the rural population. The specific programs and policies which several of the Cabinet Members proceeded to create and enunciate were not consistent with the announced strategy. The policy making surrounding the CARP is an example of the inconsistency between the government's avowals for agrarianreform and its implementation. With regard to the CARP, a key concern that was expressed in the Cabinet concerned the effects of the program on agribusiness firms, with less consideration on the tradeoffs with the equity-enhancing (and more important) objectives of the

98

program.

The tariffref()rmprograns ('I'I_I)) isanothel ¢le_trexample

of the gulf

between stiltements;txltl actions,and tile('onsecltneltt clel;t3,, in tlleimDlenlentatlon of policyreforms. We sh.'dl dlscussthe case of the "I'RPbelow.

The TRP and the Marcos Tariff

tile

reduced

of 5096.

much

the economic Tile adoption

and

more

into

tariffs

were

pressure

a m_ljor reform

of

tariff

tariff

from

structure

tile

various

pervasive.

The

tile IMF and

of trade

policy

Programs.

rates

uniform.

from

took The

to over

a major,

II.P was

non-tariff II.I) was

the

aimed

TRP,

step

at

the to a

toward

removing

and

shelved

- the

10096 to zero

desirable

measures

however

in 1981

Under

zero

the WB,

or

quantitative

with

the onset

of

crisis of 1983 to 1985, Aquirio

by

administration

the

Aquino

first.,

¢Jesirabllity

of tr.'ttle

the

openness.

lCJ87-92

under

LIL)eralizatlon

tile r:mge

lower

influences:

greater

Import

the

that

partly

initiated

Thus

transi'ormlng restrictions

had

and

had

maxinlum being

At least

government

Reform

measures

ll.D.

MTDI ).

comn'dtments

administration

advice policy

This

of

of analysts, reform

advice

,_¢._.tttL

under

continued

tile

in

TRP and

revived

tile

progrilm

was

mostly

outside

tl_e direction

was indeed

made

conlllluall('e

tile fit'tanclull

the

part

based

ILP. on

of tile cabinet,

of less

protectionism

of policy

enunciated

of tile Till ) :utd

at'rattgements

the

!!.i ) were

concluded

with

The three

on

the and

In the

included

as

the IMF in 198G;

tb

lind _!, were

it nlinorlty

vefornt

measures

few in tile {:;ll)inet that

NF.DA l)iveclors-General,: Ministers and

Ongpin

quite

late

anti in

needed

to

Ms. /_lonsocl, Estanislao;

tile

A(luino

did

firmly

be done.

regime,

that tile TRP and

Ant()n i, these

I_h'. Estanislil()

Agricultttre

believe

were

tile successive

illltl /_lr. l)aderanga;

Sect'etat-tes

"l'rilde

anti

c)f lilt'

"l'l_l) illl(I

l)ontinguez

Industry

ILP

anti

Finance Bacani;

Secretary

Peter

Garrucho. The pushed

accelerated

within

government

ilnl,Jloll|onlatiOll circles

IW tile

NliI')A altcl Ihe

II.! ) were I)A.

The

principally

DOF was

also

"7

supportive,

hut was at legist initially

the Tl(P's possibly

adverse

levy in 19_.)0, however,

revenue

|lnder

tile

IMF

With

Ihe inll_Osilion

tile revelllle

with regard to

of tile g% import

reducin R effect

I)ushed

for

of tile TRP

the enaclment

of tile

ll;islk isstled tlt_tlt_,,q)[ the Ilherali_,_lti(in orders

I_al'th'll_ali,_,l

the '11{I_ illl(I

of

_'_ls

II I' shlce

lille'

Ih(,se

III_HP

were

tu

Its

lilleresl

coltditi(_n_lillies

Ill

[,it"

tile

access

to

financing. The Tnlde

III;lllUl';ICllll'illl_,

which

lind ill(hh'ilt'_'

nl_ll|ltltle

he ch[dred

II.P,

Its

dt|e to its tsncertainty

and thus stronlllY

While Ill(, ('.elltr;ll

I)rl)l|l'_lltt,

ilc('()t)ii)llshallellt

effects.

the D()F tll(luRht

•"uld II.P l_ad been neutralized, sweel'_hli'. E() 4 13.

hesitant

I_ll',

lie dhl Ills bell

quite st|ccesslul,

"l'[Irill

I_(_dy ¢lechliHl[

in tile lihentlization

for zutotller

three

s.'dd that only after the domestic levels, and he allow

that industry

the ILP

to

results

documented

in Medalht (1991a),

lobbyinl_,

analysis,

agenda-settln6,, including

olhers,

the

press

llOI

;ll|d

('hairl|l_lll.

(_1"Ihe NEI-}A.

,,it the il_lce _ln[I pll)ceAs l)l" Ihe TrP o[ Ihe 'I'I{P arid Ihe II.P.

1!)8(h lie :dleady schedule

alltl

lie was

was able to insist on

UliK.lel"the II.P, This delay

was

suctf)r had relurned

to ]983 will

the

slow

II.P hi the latler

progress, half

al_d In some

o[

the

Medalh_ (1991 h), Lie Dies (1992),

b_(cktracklnlJ, :u_d media Secretary

is tile

tortuous

cons[tltations, employnlent, and

tile

appeals President,

o1" negotialion,

hearings,

to various and

is well-

Palate and Medalla

process

puhlic

igSOs

cases

strategic authorities

o1" tile

numerous,

i

31 1986.

l]usi_iess hlterniitlonal,

a

in June i_Js(_. AI that lime Concet_.'ion

painfully

l.ess well-known

l_xecutive

I C)91 w,'ls

_lll_dn he _q_enllinB at at Ic'_tst 809G of capacity,

of tile

of the TRP aod

among

._(,(l,,I;llV

.lanllar_'

Ill

31

retrogression

(1990),

nlonths

1'lS(i

I_laltel__ C_mnliltee

sales of ttle industrhll

would

COIllJlllle.

The measured

.&,_ I)I1

_uld rehtled

As early as h|le l:ebrll;lr)'

extended

Febru:tty

In deh|y Ille hill_lollle|llzllh)ll

clehly of Illree months furdler

Ill)tlt

.l(I._(' ('_)ncel_chll|.

Ihe {';Ibinel-level

w;is Ihe i_rlncipal

I_llllisler

l,hiliplHzles:

J(X)

cOurt/O,

Report,

2nd and 3rd Quarters,

-

uniformity.

Two factors, however, severely constrained the authority and influence of the TC.

the TC was subordinated as an attached agency to the NEDA.

First,

Thus its actions were subject to the

approval and review of the NEDA DG; and second, the DTI Secretary/BOl Chairman was made to head the NEDA's Tariff and Related Matters Committee.

The TC was only one member, and one vote, in

the TRM.

TheTariff and_Related Matters Committee (TRM3. The TRM is one of the committees of the NEDA Board. The TRM has 12 members. 12

In practice, however, many more than representatives of the

members were present and interacting at meetings.

represented,

While not a member, the BOI was always

go were the DTI's officers in charge of Import Services.

company dominated PCCI was also present.

A representative of the ISI-

Representatives of the companies lobbying for changes in

or maintenance of the tariff code were also present in some meetings. The multiple-committee,

multiple-

level structure of the TRM added to the complexity and lengthiness of the decision process. As required by law, the Tariff Commission would announce and organize scheduled public hearings on

.101

liberalization

and

supporters

tariff

change

opposltors

and

measures.

to tile proposed

present

Its analysis

at the

decision

were

first

handled

officers

from

tile same

measures

the

hearings

were

_t=_¢l il_ tile

hearings, on

At these

heard.

all

proponent,

The TC _,_uld

"I'RM structure.

suh(:ommittee

(SC)

level

also

Matters

for

of technical-level

t,

middle

C.'lblnet-level would

be

TllM. raised

When

to

(Director,

Assistant

could

be resolved

not

work.

The

was

Such

revenue-hungry have

been

more

broadened

rates

would

have

goal,

It was

necessary

the were

scope

for

bias in the still

quite

against

32

Pante ,'rod Medalla

made

evaslc)n

the

via

agriculture than

(1991),

and

thrice

I_een

p. 30.

102

the

Chairman.

A

was present

TRM was to meet

by also the

a

revenue

base

reformed than

larger,

sint,ggll,lg. industrial

and

sector,

for

of agriculture's

In 1985, 20.796.33

a

structure protection. the

lower this

since

quite

[:f[t,('tl'_,e Protection

32

ILP

uniform

'1'() _lchleve

was already

by the

low,

ai)proprlate

rather

processing

that

of

to four tintes a year.

since

export:lilies.

that

gcJal of tile TRI' and the

fi)r the

as measured

matters

to tl_e SC for more

characterized

Iv_'hnl('al

prolecticm

system,

more

three

Imve

Any

senior-level

and Industry

to revenue-generatio_}

have

of

the nbatter

back

Ilie Cabinet

l'hllippines',

and agricultural

protection

th|ow|_

tliscreth)_l

regime

of the the

a declsioIi,

ufficers.

of Commerce

w(_uhl

the

to reduce

agriculture

the

met about

tratle

attulled

nllnlnliTed

had an EPR of 73.495.

at

often

members

composed

"l't:a_|e l!oJi__'.. A major

like

would

reached

By agteelllenI,

a struettnr(:

economy

The

protection

"I'RM.

open

were

Committee,

Chamber

of Bias in

had

_,t-e

the TI{M ('al_hlet

a relatively

princil_als

[Indersecretary)

'I'RM met

Cabinet

Reduction

structure.

would

and/or

at the T(: level

hi practice,

to foster

tariff

Technical

Secretary

of tile

_he

TRM

of tile Philippine

at n_eetlngs

whose

tile sul_t'ommlttee

C:lblnet-level

representative

monthly,

the

agencies

the

low, and Rates,

manufacturing

_O_s_)3 uniform, would the

and ,47_). The shortest

relatively have

open

been

board,

and

approaches

were attempt

direction

of the

in earl)'

1990

attempted

new Finance and

by President

Aqulno

four

and 3096 on finished The ill'ms

, alld

for full-page cldld

pressure, drafted

for

In the Aquino

applied

regime. 34

The most

drafted

by tile

Cabhlet

in June

in August

across Formula

tile suppor_

the IMF),

ILP

basis.

with

under

of the 1990

EO 413

IQ90.

the

NEDA

(prior

to

_-as signed

Ill general,

rate froln 5096 Io ._O%. There would only 20% on lnlernledlate

arising

over mailers ill

ordered

weaker

F.O 470.

33

Medalla

(1991),

of laxation.

with

ilewsp;ll_eJs

Ihe implemenlatio|_ Ihilt

EO be

goods

the alf(,cted

a vociferous congressmen

iHel)st]re as till invasion The affecled which

of

firms even paid

depicted

of E() 413.

I!() ,t 13 I_c, sllL.Ived,

"consultative

mounted

the StJl_l_orl of powerful

()f the tariff

Ihe dally

from

result of Ihis

milch

w_)uhl be lowered

the issl,ance

in close consultath)n 'rile

measures

l:.stanlslao,

They also enlisted

advertisements

the President

Congress.

the low,

at by the TRP and

h'_dustry-b),-lndustry

pr4_g['am wltll

wh.ich prolecli_)n

prerogatives

as the result

tariff

to achieving

products.

wit() lal)elied

Congressional

reform

of 396, I{}% fi)r raw malerlals,

against lie 413,

sen:)tors,

aimed

199(}, for effectivity

lower the maximum

tiers: a minimum

campalgi_

fht:inchtg

path

was FO .413, principally

in general

In July

tile

poiJits

Secretary

approved

as part of the

or

approach

efficient

structure

with

at several

at a formula

most

trade

on a firm-by-firm

presentaiiol_

413 would

and

:1 L_..mlKa._a_.L_l_, not

ambitious

tariff

and

a starving

Buckling

to the

;I]t(I a relllacemenl

[-O

firms, tile PCCI alld tx}th houses of

and

particll_atory"

exercise

In contra.,_t to l;.() .i ! 3, I:O 470 exchsded a number

was

Ih_

of critical

p. 163.

34 One version of a formula approach was I_rt)posed in 1988 b)' Trade and Induslr), [htdersecreiary l.:rnesto ()rthmez. Soon aflc.r he was shifted by Secreta_' Concepcion to oilier duties In the DI'I. Ills i)i:oposal was i)ot raised again by tile DTI. 103

commodities to greater .

from illan

coverage,

50%, over adjustmenl

The experlem'e

formula volt

approach

open

firms

and

and

reform,

becanlo

tlteir

consumers

and

the

..' to clients

dilute

and

In a Democr:tllc

were

result

delay

the

the tariff

specific

to representallon

progressive

car

engines

spare

garments cases,

the

dominant glass

and

parts)

texliles

DTI's

firms,

_. growth

of cases of by

firms

program

case

packaging

the DTIIIIOI

the

DTI and

irade debate

Concepcion

and

of the firms,

on the

benefits

whether

to

to .+tOtas If

seenled

industrialization

composed of paper,

and

TRP delay industry

(and

the

fertilizers,

anti apl)llances.

- as In the

with

of

transparent

based

in a

such

services

of Ihe economy.

the

BOI,

to seriously

program.

, phosi_hatic

was

and

nurtured

to the positions

ts

parilcular

the cessation

It Is arguable

working

reform

manufacturing

"Industry"

Jars and

the

by

Secret:try

of a

slruclure

been

and

whlclx were

In short,

scclors.

for

Open

s),tlll_athotic

inaking

had

up

),ears.

Iobbyi,lg

firms

llowcvcr,

for reform

instances

In response

and

unduly

In lhe overall

enabled

Various

ofte,i

policy lind

lobbied

slate,

in six levels

thiH tile implemeltlallon the

from coverage.

lariffs

tip Io five

ol_ieclions

naturally

the arguments

firms

would

"l'h|s posture

they

the non-lnduslrlill

Individual

because

of the countr3"s

exemption

the I10I were rejected

dlfficull

nlany

regime,

are of course desirable

and of Ion

and allowed

i_erh_cts lasling

to Ihe ;Ipl_e.'ils,

Since

policy

the DTI and

quite

vuhlol-able

or at least

i'ars,

of F.O .I 13 and .17[1 Indicate

industries,

protectionist

i_arlicularly

It should of only

very

float glass,

and dilution, groups,

related kraft

bodies,

paper,

itlso be noted few

may

firms,

phosphatic

particularly be cited: components,

gl:tss jars, that with

the

tinplate,

In a number only

fertilizers,

one

of

being

tinplate,

closures.3S

i

35 The float glass company is Reiml_lic-Asahi Glass Corporation, while the larlleSl nmnufactui-er of glass Jili'S illltl ('htSlll+t.'S iS NP_I(: llil(kilging Products, a Slliisldillr), 0t" Silll'.hllgli¢,.I {](il.l_flrlillll.li . .ll_'l_llllltt'-Aslllli is il lldnl veillure Ivll<ise Ilrlil¢lpal OWl!or Is.close 14,hircol illSili'hlle lind fornlcr Mlntsler of F.nerg), {lel'ollinlo Velasco. _.

104

.].'_K.I_l_l_L_i_3|_process

Is the

lobbying

for the nlaintenance

by

tile

tinplate

fact

Anolher

and paper

o

Deveiopnlent

Corporation,

(GOCCs)

a host

Is the Trade

as company

for the welfare the welfare must

be

which

best

were

charge.

the

The

as a whole.

economy.

for

the

were

is

operation responsible

the

they

between decision

perceive

progress of

Ihe

of lnierest

was a trade-off

welfare

for

corporations

conflict

is when

re) (:c()llotlllc

and

t'olltrolled

of the ctmqmuies,

problem

aS tantalni)l.llll

short-sightetl,

Ihere

was DTI

Company

they

to

of the National

h)r the profitable

Where

The

ht)ldhlg

officials,

the profitahillty

{PhilPhos),

of the PhilPhos

possible

accotmtable

fertilizers,

to be - closely linked

and

As g_wernment

and

COIIIpally

is very

tI(_ve,'nmeut-ownctl

they

and operated

Corporation

The Chairman

t;overnmet_t's

and

(PICOP) and the National

Preside,It

Industry'Secretary.

economy

of tile

at

and

for

of the Philippilles

is the

oilier

of tile economy

biased

profitability

of

iu their

of the

- owned

Fertilizer

reform

industry

case of for phosphatic

Tomas Alcanlara.

which

executives,

of (l_e companies

is the

In the tariff in the

are parastalals

The Chairn_.'m and

anti BOI Governor

PICOP, NSC anti

dondnant

These GOCCs were - and contiuue

hi tile DTh

Undersecretary

firms

Phosphate

Corporation

(NSC)!

the

This

the Philippine

Industries

I!lakiilg

of

of prolecth)n

governnlent.

Steel Corporaliqn

clear:

several

Philippine

Ihe Pulpwood

policy

lhal

,_i_u1"t'e_f v_mlradicli(ms

the

-- a perception Ihe

ecoJ_omy

is

erroneous.

S.

TJ_e Continuing One

feature

strong

Influence

policy

making,

l_rohleln

that

marks

of the

large,

where ..

,",

the

record

sector"

"the l_rivate .

.

!'l'l"lYat¢ Seclor" of on

is a I'lem(wr;tcy

: corporate

,.: .

by the

"private

particularly

emerges

:)lily of the

D0nj!nance

,

l_rlvate .

seci_l-" commerce

I05

Philippine

policy

govertunent.

That

making

participative

is desirnble

Is unquestioned.

is nill-rowiy

tlefilietl

and

hltlustry.

This

Is the

"File

as comprising is In fact

tile

sense in which the term "private The

long-standing

sector" is c_)mmoiily used in the Philippines. 36

experience (ISI)

Indttstrlalization

_)f the

doveqc)pmt:nl

couttt.ry

strategy

oovernn_ent support and protection,.bred

with

- tin(;

Inlport-substltuting

heavily

dependent

on

a commercial and industrial sector that

,-isdependent on tile protectionist

trade p¢_licy structure - and Ihus has naturally

.devoted

Io

sttbstanllal

protectionist

resources

regime,

by Investitlg

th('

nlallltellalIt'e

a=ld

in Iol_l_ying atttl

ntakers. Since the line differentiating

expansion

rent-seeking

of

t,,ith

the

policy

tile personalities in big business and policy

• •making is quite blurred, policy making has thus coln,." io be demlinated by the big bush_essco1111tlunity.

Governnlexlt-llttslnt_._is

R_h'Lt[O!!_. Over the past decade,

variety of government-private

sf.,ctt)r ctHl.'lboratlve councils, consultative

dlnloRue mechanisms

attd other

All of these

have

government

bodies policy

makers

quite a tluml)er

stratagenis

facilitated and

for

tile

tile policy

consttlt;Hion

private making

and

IorUlllS,

have been organized.

business process.

sector's Focussing

access

to

only

on

.m

those

bodies

which

and collaborallon,

a.

were

formally

organized

for business-government

dialogue

we nlay list tl_ese as In('luding:

the Peoples' Economic Cotmcils (organized wttll tile Department of Trade and Industry/DTl),

b.

tile Conference

of lnter-ishmd

Slllp Owners anti Operators

c.

tile Presidential

Council on Rural Development

(DTI),

(Office of the

Presldent/OP),

. .

..

..

__

36 Where enumerations like: "The government, private sector, farmers' groups, etc..." are often made - lmplyhlg that farmers' groups are not of the private sector. 106

tL

tile

Presidential

Agrarian

Reform

(:c_t,ncil

(Departnwnt

o/" Agrarian

Reform), e.

the National,

Reglor_al anti l.ocal

(Department f,

Agricultural

and Fishery

Councils

of Agriculture),

the Shipping and Ports Advisory (;nutwll(I_eparlmcnt of

Transportation

and Communlcatlons), g.

the G-I I "Captainsof lndusiry"(I)TI),

f.

lhe Tariffand Related Mailers Committee (NationalEconomic and Auth()rlty),

Development g.

the Coordinating Foreign

CotBmitlce

()n the Ilrtjgoa),

Ih)tmd (l)eparlmenl

()f

Affairs),

h.

[he Presidential

C¢)m,ttlllec on hlilltlailao

i.

the Presidential

Conllnissh)n

J.

Ihe Philippine

k.

the Export and In_'estment

I.

the

m.

the ASEAN

n.

the Coordinating

_xporters'

on lhlcrg),

Council

Free Trade Area Committee

(()P),

(()P),

(I)'rl),

Developnzent

Council for lnvestntenls

Ik, velnimlen[

Council (DTI),

(IYI'I), (AFrA)

Council,

and

<)n the hledium-Term

Development

Plan

(NEDA).

The

structures

government

relations

by representatives These

bodies It must

of the private

meet regularly be

noted

of contact

There

numerous

are

between•

government

of all

operations

are set into law.

structures • ....

and

and

that

and

liaison

occasions officials

the

and and

sector,

The

bottles

and

ate quite

I07

for

bodies

are also

chaired

with

business-

or co-chaired

operatin'g

budgets.

influential. bodies

Include

businessmen

opportunities businessmen

,tbove

provided

above-listed between

Ihe

and

for Informal - recepllons,

only the

the

government.

and social familial

formal

and

contact kinship

ties,

past

and

current

business

pal'tnershlps,

social

eye,its

and

religious

congregations. Monies

(1989)

explains

sector on tile highest and experience, corporate,

business.

commands

government.

claim

government

should

private

sector's

tile private

positions

often denotes

large,

of its heavy levels of during

attention

the campaign

and

influence

of the "private

I_ositlons

- usually

in

sector"

at the

influence

regimes

and charactek" of tile

representation

and

policies

are

are

senior,

ll), sheer ability, to prominence,

on Government

distinguishable

from

sector"

Often

question

heavy

In the assessment

in the Philippines

is: "Which

of tile part of

all_)ut?"

IhP_._'_'I'llY_Ie SeCILLr._.?..One

may be distingtilshed

Is by the change

private sector grt)up whh'h

economically

way

- front

say. cunning,

the

and influence

in

all area and to a fa.nlily at the national

level,

lie took the political

route

on his small local base through 108

by which

in the composition

gained power

and scx'ially prominent

and as some historians first l)y l)uihling

Philippine)

_llready has a disproportionately

Marcos wus Ix)rn and raised lit the North considered

hardly

the

This is because

fa_'t that the "private

Thus the operative

of

In (tile

is at the very least redundant,

whh'h in t,ener:ll

sub-sector

Presidential

sector

- given the peculiar

sector are we talking

Which

not usually

extensive

officials

observation

of the Marcos and the Aqulno governments,

"private

actions

on government.

each era,

elective

governntont

be Increased"

"big business"

Influence

based on popular

many r_ron_inent meltlbers

senior

that

government sector

denotes

Into

and

both in tl_e Contexts

oft-repeated

private

Intensive

and

of tile business

level.

Thus.

In fact,

thus:

innvence

This is tile sector that by reason executive

Furthermore,

recruited

ministerial

Intensive

the sector referred to as "the private sector"

private

periods,

orten

levels of government

for government

support

tile relatively

Congress

as the

elected

representative

+1949

to 1959,

sufficient where

of his home

Marcos was named

national

exposure

he successfully

for

breeding

period.

members -blood

and

in

to

Thus it Is not surprising

that

Thtis

the Marcos cronies

the croJlles gained nluch more ecoll()nlic facilitative

Presidential

over colltrol Into

banking,

that

In turn

decrees,

of the coconut heavy

and

industry'

they contributed

through

traditional i;rowth,

the

their wealth

six years

Government was to create

In

and social

"Cronies]_". office,

bodies

assumed

non-

Many

were smaller

campalglls.

through

enabled

['Jw period, enabling

and

the cro1_les to take

Ilistory

now

heavily

makes clear

also hnelda's0 coffers.

the influential

mld-elI_htles.

°'private

They

business

replaced

the

l_ut not nurture

to

At the hegitmlng Aqtdno

of her Presidency:

said

on Pr'lvallzalion

anti

often

She did Iry. and tile

and through

repeated

that

her

One of her first acts

Asset Prlvatization

Trust.

.

managed

control

Spanish

The cronies also moved

were

will move and slay out of business.

...

and

standing.

Corazon

the Committee

the

i_1 the Marllal

trade.

the

usual

to allow more

Ills electoral

to Marcos', and soon after,

to

the

- wealth

back to

elite who were held in check, able only to maintain,

The Aaulno

These

ties

with time

I)ackgrotmds.

pair(range

and International

up

from

l_.1ostof this new elite did not have

sugar ec(monly.

seventies

that

power and wealth

Thus the Marcos and lmelc'la cr(mles sector"

at

Parllcularly

l_iarcos'

Senate,

in 1965.

Marcos begun

I_klrcos though enlerged.

from

When he had gained

consistent

family

ellle i,ito his circle,

who had supl_>Iled

not

society

through

of his tenure

nationally-elected

was

lies with Sl_atn, More had Chinese, Irader

buslllessn_en

her

the

Philippine

mai,_tal,led

of the traditional

year

Congressman".

background

prominence

el_abled

colonial

moved

each

his hid for the Presidency

Marcos ° socio-economic qualifications

Through

"Outstanding

he

launched

district.

of the

the

(;overnment's

hugo

portfolio

•......

109

ambitious of

privatlzatlon

"non-performing

program, assets"

that

and tile

,Philippine

National

Bank

and

the

Development

Bank

Of the

amassed, much of whlcll was due to loans and accomm_xlatlons I|y the

end

Completed National

of Aqulno's

watch,

as

many

planned,"

Bank and Tl_e focus

course held

low

Airlines,

Aquino

(both

tile perf(u'nling

or hlarcos

profile,

have

Philippine

have

nt's

re-estal_lished

l_)' Iht, their

program

the

_lctivlties

Ill

are only

cronies. not

been

Philippine

|)rlvatlzatlozl

the

svere

which

had

who

l_ad been

have

With

dormant,

re-emerged.

C';ovcrxlment

of

been

pzlrt of the equation.

M_ll't'()s machine with

had

sold.

I)llsinleSSmen

links

has

the _loZl-l)erforming)

assets

and Ills crolll¢:s,

for Marcos

particularly

been

and

These

or disadvantaged

also

prlvatlzatic_n items,

g_vernnlt,

and his cronies.

the departure

the

large-ticket

or tile

the assets by Marcos

while

Philippines

of

The)'

policy-znaking

structure,

Aqt, ino Governmexlt

will

enterprise. of her only

also

government

tillers.

proportion

slrU£lut'_

Peso ;tnd

the

competitive

she has been

of Its goals

less

getting

successful. Agrarian

unfulfilled.

rc, lttalzt,

p_utlt'ullzt'ly

I{eform

tariff

overly

structure

business,

playing

Program

tile

field"

- has

fulfilled lands

of tile fundamental of land,

major

tlzt_ ¢)vt, l'_,,zltlutI

for

program"

of agricultural

- the ownership

I:urlllermore, lit

of

"['he "centerpiece

ownez'ship

economy

out

a "level

maintain

to transfer

largely

analysis a level

of playing

a new subgroup

the

Aquino field

¢:xcilazzgo

to

basis

would

distortions

be

In the

I',lle

I)roIL'CIIVu of ttnport-sul_stituthzg

Aquino's

style and stance

government's

indicates

or "the

to act ll_ as full), a transparent While

and

to

el

Ilz¢_

but

non-

create

and

enterprises.

An maintain

to create

In the Philipphle

went

lltt:t;itllvct

In addition

of the CARP was that tile ownershii_

and power

Democratized,

that

- the Comprehensive

The promise

of wealth

said

endeavor

In this area

a small

enabled

often

tllat

private and may

her

failure personal

sector"

Io gain

al_l_arently

zleutral

I_, have

I !0

been laudable,

to

quickly

style

and

Influence. a manner

background Aqulno as

It has turned

chose

possible. out to be

at least

tolerant

influence,

of

gained

to do so.

Agrarian

Reform the

Many

manager himself

wealth

of

of Trade

of a food

alld

conglomerate

as a representative

on

also

their

and

of the group ratlier

resisted Io

down

and

the overvalued

businesses

were

Peso. heavily

Also,

Atlullio's

as the owiier

appeared

inalltlFiicturer,

who would get hurt

did and

they

slowed

Ills liaeklrouiid

also

in Congress

(ilstl_l'ti¢iliS.

appliance

of tile group

presence

alid

traditional

rcllc_'llnli.

Thus

aild

to

sl,ccessfully

hilid.

strut'lure

wealth

iRIvalltages

drastically

(it tht, ill()lcCtlillitst

liidutilry,

such

links alld

tariff

p,)ssessed

'i*huy

based

influential

fortunes

nlliinlellance

uilll?e

their

the distorted

thus acted more In behalf

b.

their

already

to reform

oil the

MllllSli_r

have

;ilrt+atiy

_tivel-illllelll.

The

(short-term)

c,mhl

the Ailtlinil

law.

since

first

lllt+allS,

the CARP, alltl used

action

the

grq+ul+s who

and

weakened

delilah=lent

.

influence

continue

down

Those

l+y wll;llcvPr

disproportionately

water

hletluily.

and

to see

by the reforms,

and

than the entire economy.

Exogenou_Factors _xacerbatlng

country

were

confronted between

lhe

tile

the

economic

natural

country.

the natural

Droughts.

calamities

"Fable

calamities

Droughts

troubles

19, lists and

•political

and

other

these

exogenous

the other,

affected

and

various

exogenous

political

parts

uncertainty factors

factors, and

of

tile

which

differentiating

International

of the country

events.

through

most

of

.'.......

the 1986

to 1992

Tile El NlmJ phenomenon

period.

held

agricultural

from

tim second semester

droughts ": "Mlndanao drougtits

also

production

the

prlilclpiil •

l.uzon,

the entire Pliilipidnes'

• •

counlryis

oF 1987

hit Northern

through are

down

:

..

:

Crops ailtl •

...]

in the

Central

to mid-1988, the

period. principal

Ce,_tral

caused and and

Northern again

Visayas

Unfortunately, ilr0ducii0n

an extended

drought

l.uzon

in 1990.

and Central

rice plain Intermittent

and

the areas badly areas

for rice

and

Northern hit by the corn,

.

food

Sial,lies. The

"..','..

111

droughts

thus Caused

that

production

the

o'_

|

co o"1

I,_ Z3

o o IIJ

'_

0

N O_

o

,-., o,, oO

_

_'

_l_l

-_._

_

.

o

.,,

_

0

o

_

,

-_

_

_

_

_

_

_ 112

c

-oo

_째

shortfalls

which

between Such

increased

feed production

threals

sectors

been

tile

drawdown

effect

the droughts wat_2r

could

best

levels

Stll'_Plled

ill afford,

decided

it1 the

The

industry

were

since

critical thus

linkages

threatened.

tile hog and

of i_hilipl')llle

to

the

,,vies Ihi|l

dams

and

power.

chickeH

agriculture

(';Inal

systettl

and

iillOC;lll(Hl

to priorltlze tl_ese

to power

Ill ge,+eral,

power

firsl,

allocath, ms,

shortages

shortages

illS()

the

alld

Plllllr_l+l_tes.

plal_t. The direct Plnatubo

were not

great.

contlnulng

nalure,

llolh

transport,

energy,

buildings,

Production1 and

and

in

the

,esuitlnl,

The

costs were handllng

both

indirect

levered costs,

|_l_)dtl('lJ()ll.

I!)')()

ert_l+tetl,

Ihtls

s)'stei]l.

taxed

Ille

Ih)zHd often

irriglation

last. This the

e£_rlhquake

hit

cilusi_+g wide

and llle eruption

were however

large,

a_d

of

blt.

are of a

tile erUl+litJ_i cause great damage

governme_t

as well

as public

offices,

hospitals

upwdrd

by lhe resulting

Contillulltg

uncertainty

113

wilier

In agriculture,

a massive

lhe earthquake

alld

dalllS.

II()l lie suppt_rted.

illJl'l('llllllrill

ilffrasltttcture,

slat ions,

and

h_sses.

effects

lho earthquak¢ irrlg_tllol_

rotdd

since

lht_

_,Vi|ler I{esou,t+es sec()nd

tile

t_n tile irrigation

SOpl_lles

liilel +, l_ll. Pinatubt+

)'ear

of

Will(.l

the

of

painful,

Ill{: Inell()i_,_lis'

I)rodu(liq)ll

I,_ July

cii|_acit)'

specially [;Irnls

illealll

_.ll)let_vel,

supplies

lhe

eff¢cts

researc]_

gcare'e

p_wer-il, t:_leration

Al+ot_t a

economic

s,,l'vetl

l+t)tal+le water

i'()ll_ill'il]lll'_l

were

dil1115.

the NillIoII;ll

l_r__l|Klgak_.g_illlX!.J_,lt, l!illi|ltll_._. blortherll

|h_

full

alsc_ I_ui'lht'|"

cuts

of tile

,)f trril_,alecl

[1'(!111

o|"

Iht, dlcJil .Ill raillfall

Ihe reducllc_|!

These

tile derbendence

to tile extreme.

with

storage

prices.

particularly sectc_rs

those close to IMetrc) Milnllil.

governmenl

school

chicken

performing

increased

IIlallagellleill

waler

tile hog and

hydro-electric

als_

particularly

led

illld_ feed

or tile, dr_)ul, hts

(ff waler

country to produce

liven

food

decade. Another

The

and

tile economy

have

recent

both

increases also

facilities and i_

increased

to like

clinics.

transport, financing

costs.

As the government

and

rehabilitation

mounted

programs

l|le goveraunent

a,ld

duc to ]_ll, l'inalubo's mudfiows five

from

to ten

already

been

systenls

ohsolete.

not expected will

have

In the area

The

extremely program had

_olle

More

the

vulnerable, which

had

since been

importantly,

tile

workers

wells

lit(Is1

East

and

all

of the

hilve

fortunes energy

COIJllll')"$

the

are

largest

tile mudflows

37

close1),

tied

requlren_ents c()n_centratit_n

of

Philippines

w'as

of ;i three-year

IlMF

which

ill|('illpI

scratch.

tile earthquake

The

[tile

and

it_vestment

from

frum

!_), the ti|ilSl_tn ('(Jill9

has

are

to be x'ebuilt,

to start

w;ts still in shock

Illllllal')'

at least

irrigation

Infrastructure

warfaxe.

the

areas

gravity-flow

tlfn(, it was ll| the lllldclle

S(,II(III._

say thilt

affected

When

of

damage

l.tlZOll for

1991,

will have

into

and

sixlce the muclflows

will

or restnnk.

escalated

country's

fttml

highwa),s

In short,

necessary

Is where

of tile

live years

feb[tilt

at that

made

slllce 6595 of the 1Middle

at least roads

Gulf C:risis

tc)pogral_h),

llle rest

areas.

Geologist_

Central

the relief

fronl

the effects

is still ),el to be ended,

"I'l_e Phllll_l_ltles

Ih(:

tile

:ontract

Gulf Gflsls.

event,

tO inund;tte

retlderillg

by the eruption,

followinlI

coulltrles, at_d

affected

after

wilier

away

tile affected

ill

the actual

The

altered,

tile area's

potable

resources

still Ilave to De connl_leteO.

tile erttptloul.

until

to tile devastation,

CtHIcelll!'zlltd

after

"f'he devast:ltlon

It> cease

when

LO be

scarce

will ¢Olltii_ue

permanentl),

and

1990

after

stabilized,

irrigation

July

volcano

to respond

already

two ),ears

eruplh)ll

the

),ears

drew

tile economy

As of this writitlg,

efforts

i)f

to

tile economy

l)ecember the

1989.

oil-exi_orting

have to be imported, of

Filipino

overseas

(OCW) Is Iocaled.

17 Milch of tile tl'lst'tlsslllll ()f thq' ('fl(q'l', )ased t)n lzlmberte alld Yap. (It,)[) I). !!4

t)f Ih(' (;ulf ('l isis ()r.I th(' Phililqdnes

is

_CWs

{UltJ l/t_l_E_II_lll|ll;!!lc'_s.

The ofl)cial

ill the Mlcldlc I".ast in mid-1990

are placed

79% were

in Saudi

63,000

se,lt

to the

back

economy.

38

tr,'ldo and

chan,;els,

COUliers

losses

the latler

by

Ilie Iotal

OCWs

since

and

• also

had

OCWs

back

displaced

to

Ihe

OCWs

{l()n-I),l{lk

h;llf of

199() due

lolls[

pall

i)[

Phlilpplnt,

into

_lovernment

paid ()tit S()llle 1'1831Xl t,)iissisl

OlL_l_.r|c___llt!_+.,+. I!lallltalned esselllial I)el'+arllllenl companies

th_ (.'hanl.le of lallder

eilel-g},, ill

Th(,

ellel'l.ly

direct

put

in

the

figures

()[

are

informal fCllllllallCe

pl.lceLI ;It as much

as

b), the title

OCWs,

It) the tllt_

a_ltl

{'ep;tll'iatit)ll

re-absolpl.ioll

organized

nm,lalgetl

the

Wc)rkels

loans

()WWA

for

of

tile

of

tile

special

I¢) ferry

h), tllt_ ()vt:rse_is

all,

economy

tile

about Welfare

emergency

estimates

I|lal

tile

the: {)(;_,Vs dt, rhllL the (;lllf (Tnlsis.

of

tile

Ihal

it

the

_;ith)us

5upervish)ll

to

22% of all non-

through

The government

I.I(_x+t'rllnit'tit

s)'Sle}ll

p(llh-y :lnd

All

AtllJin,)

p¢)lit;y

i'.'nerl.ly Ihe

capital.

;ire

uncolhlieralized

and

vital

e$1|llliltes

It) [;.it'illl,llL'

Airlines.

h)w-interes[,

livelihood

Crisis

t'osts

eco,_(mb'.

assjstall¢:e

remittances

These

earl,i,lgs

remitted

(;_I()l[S

Philil_Pine

as

receipts.

about

and YiLp ( 1991 ).

Scuttle P281xl w,ls relt,;tsed

to OCWs

Dollar

about

Iir()ad

the (;ulf

It)

tilt:

The

of OCWs

of which

increasingly

their

¢'lla{lllels.

/Itljtlsllnelll

the domeslic

OCWs htmle.

Administration

the

s atitl

flights using Ihe parastalal 30,000

accoUxll

to the loss t)f the earnings

to be;lr at

t_ecolne

111¢15|O(._'s,VS remit

olh(:r

Iraq.

of OCWs formed

US$82 by the NI!DA lind $31 hi I))' l;mll)erle in aclditlon

and

have

remittances

c)f tile number

close to h;flf a million,

in Kuwait

8% of ;Ill curuenI

underestimated,

for

and

Philippines

In 1989

nlerclh'lndlse severely

Arabia

at

estim;Itcs

inlierit¢,¢l

I_,l;ir('tJs

regime.

iii;l(le

'+v_ls to

had

()1+ Ihe

¢'nerl.l)' Offit+e

and ()f

the

illitl In have

esselltt;lll)" 1')(.)(+) tile

only

al_()lished

l}()Wel • ()ffic'es F.xet-utive

Ihe and

Se('relar]/,

38 I')avid and (+;heeta _ 198,)) ol}st, rv(, Ihilt Ihe fin;Int'l;tl Stlea/li5 (if Iilt_ rural eCOllOllly are lllcrea_illl.lly ftlll(l(,(l++ Zllltl tllix'¢'{I I_)' Ihe Ilie l ellliti{ill('e5 ()|" ()(J_,Vs, illl+,l IIla_ explain the relative sllrvival el Ill(" iiiral ,'ilO;l_<; (lesplle tile trem(.,n(.Iotxs biases alia|liSt rur,-II developlnellt alltl a{|rlculturai I.ll:Oi,Vlll.

115

• ++,..p,++++++,.++++ ]_ ./B{+|_p_+:N+_"

+T{_lfilE--_ IPI+ii}_'I.'

' I ._i_'¢

l+Y

,

There

were

overtaken

plans

_oVei'lill)(:lll

pr(.ldllclS,

and

the

costs of the thlee reference

are less than

Ihe reference

When

the build-up

of

chose

based

products

and

and

diesel

Philippines

The

ftlel from

three lind

in Ihe Ol._F.

()il

domestic

import

a

costs

fearful

()f public

()f oil and

increase

of a change

the U.S. [)ollar. designed Gulf

i,) the and

second,

Io moderate War.

The

the shift

9291, IO 55% of direct

3296

to 1196, illlt| than

ave

con)pal)y

- lilt:

Philil+l+ilie

and

petroleum

rate

Shell 011

on

kerosene 32% to

is in Lamberte

and

and

Caltex

CoJupalt),.

-ll Oii Decenll+er 5 19(+)1 it shall; lilt,till of illt're+lsos ill i+elroleunl ordered I+), the I':nerlty Ite:gulal01+y IhD+utl. Nil(Ill|t, i+tq)ulisl I'eilClil)lIS lronl COllStllners, and teeth, tho l+xl,t'llliX'tP illltl l.egislitlive forced moderate tile Increases a few days l:tter. ll6

tax on

was of oil-

gas from

Pilipinas N+llit)llal

In lax.ilion

effective

ac/

of the

depreciation

take,

were

from

in the prices

avrilngement$

Ihe mttlliniltiotlills

/Jet;'o/l

tile

and

two factors:

products

of the shift

cut

oil liquid

of the lt_slituli(>nid

were

of oil

increase

reaction

in oil prices

the sharp

The legislation

from

oil compallies

taĂ—ation

Despite

fuel 1))' allowing

Net Ul)xvard zldjustments

of the

1990,

of w_lr ill the Gulf,

(_il |veto the Midd](_ [!ast.

in oil prices

pilraslilta[

zllld

prices exceed

actual

the ()ull)lezlk

problem

description

the

Ihe c,xcess wlleli

199141

to the

Jet fuel

and colh?cl

21, 1990 and in Dt.,cc,nber

measure°

and

COml+anJt:5'I() wh(.'ll iJltevl)ali(>nal

/_3_%tff lls crude

in Septeml)er

due

39 A concise Yap ( 1991 ). 40

Were

l:u,)d. -_c) The I)PSF subsidizes

ti+e d<)mesli(" prices

legislation

Peso against

a populist

gasoline

plans

of t)ii

iiltt, rilati()ii,ll

to maintain

the

to specific

again

l)elxveel_

lhe gove|'nnte,ll,

the cleficlt

Complicating

oil

luices

dciillt.sljt"

in deficit,

only made on September

Congress'

lily

oil prices shot up with

being

pain,

Philippine

Ihese

I)lJI

rates.

was sourcing

the OI'SF already short-term

,_L,ts

dlfft,vel|llals

price,

inlernatlonal

Phlllpl)Ines

vMorem

i)(_li, y.

the use ()f the Oil l',ice._,Ibili_,ali<m

predetermined

first,

ill

t'hitl|BL's

;Idllltlljsll-_lliVt'ly

Ittalu.ll_l_s

thr(lugh

the inipolt

the

Illaj()l"

by the Gulf War.

The

prices

I() make

prices illlti

tile

were

I)iOit2515

l+Itli to

zero.

The I)uoya,lC%' of _lle lax Oll oil and oil i)r_MliClS was r(,dm'ed,

lax' revel1ile$frolll r@qtlir(._illelil$

of

tile

_()v@rlllltellt

As the counlry's peso also rapidly exchanlge ,.igalll

rale

Irade

moved The

encouraged

"volulilal')'

lhe

lill|e %%'hcIl

tile fiscal

tllle.

with

July I and N_vember

to P28 per $1. ||_llik

fhlally,

()nil,

lllsliitlletl

Ihe Gulf War,

19go tile l'eso-i)ollar

I r()nl April

X%il'i[)ll_

tile

lggl

t'tJll[l'()]$

did the Peso

t)i|

tile

fOl'eigll

tile|)iIllkS t()relievepressure on ll_ePeso. "l'l|e CB also

I]le

lnil)Ol't

illit

shariHY deteriorated

llelween

CClllrill

lra[isactlolls of

strollgly

balance

by 19%

reduced,

nlc)sl

Were

lost groulld,

In)prove.

exchange

prodtlClS was

ol_

and

t'()llllllelCiai

l'eSll'illil[

I}_.llikS

SySl_2111"

Ill

_ll]llliJliSlel"

where

illl

"{)il

illlpOi'lS

oil

l)il"

were

al|d

accorded

preferentialaccess alld exch;tllgei'_tles l'(ir foleli_ni ex_'h,llll_e,

FertLllzer lnpuL agricultural modern

product. varieties,

fertilizer. gas. the

foreign

The

exchange of urea

support

and

RAP, which

......

country [-ast,

difficullies prices.

and

"this

as well as the for

was

Provided,

'

--

-

for

leqlJlre

;l StlbSlalllial lratl.

freighl

The cost Ihe

fro, e, one

from

50-kih)

of tariffs

Rice Actiozl late sack

l_q90

pl_lted

application

of

on pelroleum

oil

combined

urea and

increases,

to engender

of Agriculture

and

to

imports

price

of [he Deparlments

for tile waiver

seas(ms

are

of i{_ fertilizer

crisis°

Department

of the

farms

based pilrl

Gulf

Philippines' l,lrgesl

the

Increases

the ol)jeciiolls

mounting

two plallllug

rice

In turJl° is largely

prompted

Io press

is the

Philipl)ille

wl_ich

was sourcing

Management)

ran

of

particularly

rh'c

Paddy

90% of

of urea,

of tile N_I)A .'1rid over

on ferHlizer0

farmer

than

the cultivatlojl

Middle

doubling

Budget

More

"l'he production

natural from

111]porI:i.

(with

of Finance import

Program.

a tlie and

surcharges

42

Under

tile

lo nlid-1991,

each

rice

of fertilizer

for

each

sack

of

u

42 Prior to 1990, [he DA had also implemented lhe Rice Productivity Enha!'tcemerlt Progranl (I{PI..'P), wlleie each farmer of an |rrl_aled rice farm was provided urea on a '!btty one, t:lkt_ one" basis. The RI'I_P was financed from Japanese •ODA. No waivers on tariffs were Involved. 117

fertilizer under

that

he applied

to his fields.

tile RAP was sourced

The

from Japanes_

financing ()fficlal

of tile

fertilizer

Development

giveaways

Assistance

to tile

DA. 43 Given tile Aqulno energy

tile dependeBce government

policy.

government crony

The

v,;ts tmat+le abolition

during

was unwieldy Committee

could

;1111Ol1111 of

work

and

uncertainty

leftist

rebels,

movements rllnlors i

'I+:1

military of troor_s

i

IOllrl$111 L

The

approprlatlo_ls in 1992,

I

I)A

lilter

and and

from tile

I

I

Secretary

the

police

armed

allead)'

maltw and

as a base

policy,

Ill his

on

Aqulno

I_:lsi_"

for

Council tile

was the {_hai,man

itlht'lC.,lll

In

ec<+tlcmty suffered ctJup

assorted

Ilrt_t_ps - I|lcluding

Ihl'tlul,,_h I(J 1991.

[,lellel'al

succeeded

tile

to replace

l(_ ellt:rgy

;itlellli<)n

|D' seven

bill the estimated

by

Coordi,latlng

was organized

!!xeculive

I'Ht'Ssliti'

and act quickly

t}f l!nergy

i!nergy

that

-

DOE of tile

given job

tile _ls the

"15

1986

alid

The

Rebe.L,,_+-ti.y.iA+Y. The

eBgendeled

_lntl panic

I)ll$1nes$,

;llltl

it is clear

to the l)OI-'s repulation

which

adequalp

President.

(_'OUpAtten].121s__,'lnd

tile

ellerg)',

alte]lllozl

Department

a reaction

arrangement

IlOt pay

or "Asslslanl"

Ihe

regime.

and slow. '14 Since he

11"OIll(21ltIOIl-_

"little,"

of

t|te"Marcos

was the committee

on Imp_wted

to fi)Cus adequate

In 1986 was essentially

activity

which

of tile coulltr)'

patterns

attempts, I+ombi,lgs, vl|lilanles

These

tile clashes

between

assassinations, - and

clistu[l++lnces

of life in Ihe couDIry.

instability

unsettling disrupted

In particular,

Ill._elllllB ill|o tile guvc,nment Budget alld tile ct_st of the RAP - about PT00M per year, starting

•l.I The I!CC was ch:lh-ed hy tilt, lixecutive Secl'_2t,tl'y, Wile XVil$also {_hilil'lll.ill Of tile Phllil_Phle National ()il Conlp.lny (l'Nt)t:l. The |neml)cr$ included Ihc I-xcculive IJirector of tile Office of I-nergy Affairs, tll_., President of the PN()C, tile l}re$idelit of tie6 National Power Corporation and the AdmiBlstrator of the Natio£1al l._lectrlficatlon Administration. 45 "the handlinl] of cnerg)' IS(Jilt;)' dliring Ihis period c()ntl'll)llted IOihe decisloJi IO rel+hl('e A(IlllliO'S $ectJJid lixcculive Secrctar)', ('dl;lliliO lXI,icdraig, with t11¢2third - tile "fair-haired" young Congressman Oscar ()rt+us, who lasted only six months,

118

d)e major coup attempt with long-lasting

adverse

a tourist

destination.

ecolzomlc

activities

The economic

of l)ece|nber

effects on tire already "l'lze dislurl_ances

to defense,

opportunity

but for the moment

police

scarce

resources

peace-keeping

these diversions

as

from

expenditures.

are of course significant

ltlatle_lttRllL_C_tP.,'_c'iLv for Reform

to generate

economic

problems

collerence

oÂŁ adjustment

is determined

they

are

Korean

the degree

to which

hlterbttreatt_'rath

basic

largely

Is probably

{iltet'es[

through

on politically

In this

section

we examine

capacity

for the formulaUon

and

Insulation

from

In economic

lack of bureaucratic

and

painful

several

reform

policy,

experience

aspects

of of

pressures. constrained

the frequent of its officials.

I19

and

divided feature

fr()m

... (is):

legislative, Iteasonal)le

to i_ropose

and

measures."

lmpleme|_tation

was

and

agencies

crucial

ability

speed

of well-trained

|_l'_SStll't_s,

to the

of

this capacily

deeply

Insulated

gl'Otll_

anti-reform

for

are

essential

follow

or

... a furtller staff

exlent

economic

agreement

analyses

the

tile number

in central

in

technical _ltltt

affects

To some

features:

staff

objective

and

obviously

responses.

experience

°,

capacity

Informed

options

analytic

reviewing

autonomy

and

by very

experienced

whether

leadership

image of the country

Incalculable.

"Capacity

government's

other

trade,

( 1991 ) writes:

Nelson

its

battered

also diverted and

losses from

II.

and

1989 also caused a steel) fall in tourist

chaJ_ges Willie

tl_e

Aqulno

government's

economic

reform

We

that

find

by a diffused

measures, the

Aquino

structure

in officials,

and

a definite

central

the

of

general

economic

•planr_ing and

agency

- tile

coordination The

Phllll'_phae actions

s!rategy

and

program

arrive

|)e(_ll

unable

to

I'rom

a perspecllve, growth.

up

lJltilirq'_int'._

I}_"

an

It) ax'l'ive

effective

tleveltll_|Uent,

d_ _:cOon

hi

Is

ill

fill"

lit('

Ilalurt!

tile .t

overall

manner

vehk:h,

(ff the

veh(_n

l't._[l)UIll

tl

it has look_

ailtl

reform

,ll_l_l'_ili'll

ill

_. at

for recovery

development

0i|l-ust, |Ill!l,

same

measures

flilglnl.qllt'tl,

tlt'vt_l()l'llllt'lll

of programs,

consistent,

of _2tox'bc)nltit." refc)rms

ft'al4n_el_tt_d

at a _et

ixitcrxtall),

s_! of mutually-reit_ft)t'cLng

c_f the

rrllgl'alll5

ittlable

illto

altd

loa

the

I_eult

aggregate

a program

source

Ill

l]l_llsetl

l!cotlomlc TIlt:

1992

Le{ltlcrs[IJlL_'.l!._lC

s_tdor

officers

arc|isled

pt'ogra|_ts

th(r

it)

illltl

gt)V_21"llllli_i'll

stll)JccI

i_ Table

¢_lljoy

pIOI)OSO

policy

('()ulSe(ltl(,t_t't_s

where

Tilt.'

ill

hers(_lf

sole

the

_Fl'l_lll

t_lliltl

SIWI()I'_

"_Hhl'l"

is a Ill¢'itl ale

st,en

w(.q/+ll'e

tile

.IlIIt_II_HIV

hill

l(211dt+nt'),

ernphasizetl

t_l

ills()

tlt,,ll

atnthorily

Ih_).s_'

at

lattl('.

Thus

i|_ IilV()l- c_l itllll

p(:l'll_tl. I_ tloc-lth,

IIl_' I)orioO

_f l_q_.s_lls

tilt'

I't";I

iltllh(_lji}"

Ih_$(,,

ttvt211

whh'h

ill l'

_1 "_'llt,l_l_,lisn_"

I<+ I_(' ill S(rt','i('_'

It) i'H'(+l|lilllt Atluil_(_

IIlilll

_vt,!

ill t_ I]1(2 ilttltvttlt|al

illeitStlre$,

'l'ho.rl,

IlilliOllill

I!_Vl'llllllt'lll

tlt'_ll

ilgel_t'it.'s

Ih_, _|igillal_ls

Iiitv_ 0 Iht:

of the populalltH_

ovtrrall,

hI g_,n(,|ill,

lsltp(_si._tl

l.)eparttnents not

2.].

t.'u_)lt_llllt"

I)_' htws,

(Ill

I)t.'l'_;ll'llttellt.

I_l'ilt_'il_al

:1 I_lt'ill

LO Ihl._ linllts

[ _!.t'_

I)f the

|_ Ih_: P]_ilipl)i_,

])_21)IIr1111(31115

and

adtl

from

u (: ra/.'}'.

I'l U i'ea

and

at

has

growlll

"The

Illillta|_[.'lllOl|[

to

whLch of

it w a.,s constrained

policy,

govet'tlmul_t

and

i_l'oltlraltl$

- exisLctl,

of economic

projects

anti

NIiDA

Itw I)o]icies

l_t, Pa_ Illlt_llI$.

'lhe

gt)Vt'illll_t_ltl,

illld

_

t() II(}l (_llly tl(_vCqt)p if Ill_'

ill lilt,

IhCSe

|lave

(lil'('_'l

_'lit'l_lS

I'hllil_l_i_tt'

,lit'

t+(l_'ll

itlitl

iltlvelse of

lilt"

I_t_lt,_ttl_'td('y,

((It' ill _+l+lt g(.') c_l i+atli¢tllar

Itt'l+ill'llll('lll'_

1982

V,'illi_tll

setlt)rs, I_+ h_|l_+

.%t.,l'l<_l;ll wt, lhl|t,. I+t)llt') ' II'il||lllt+llliil|t>lt The

P_'(,sitle_l

IIl'_O_l Iho

12O

rehum

was

'v_,'ilStrXiit'ul'l)_lll2tl u|_',villltll;

pl_)lL_,t_ln..

I_ IIt|t

illltl

x'erst__tve for IIt:ilhur

!lid

she identify

nor appoint

a spu¢-il'ic- :lulhority

with

on economic

mailers.

finalily

_d_l.lLIJ_ls generally related and

to their

Io reverse

I)el_;trtments

own acfi¢)ns the

they

conllict,

lilkell

erupt

o1" pub,ticity Ihill

alzcl

that

through

most

Ill

}_Ollel'al,

I11('

hy

the

viii'lollS

gflVellllllelll

l_r(,sident

(1vet'|Ill

(,If(,c'ls

I)eparlmetllS

illltl ill

preseiH-da),

slraleRhJs program Illlihle

(1[ the

goVerllllletll,

envisioned _.lehl)'

;Ind

lllJluellc'es

to achieve

IllO¢-|Jf"J¢;il|(_ll

Ihe

.,'_qt]IH()

efl'orls of the NF.I1A aml PresldeHI

spe¢llir,

!o

I|le

coordinative

Ihe exiRell(-ies

w-iH_ those

themselves

activities

to

ot" the other

als(_ ha_l to defend

their

ripen

_'c_tJhlI|Ol lind for public

naturally

belweerl

Sul}POrt supporl,

sensitive

Ihe parties

c_)Hllicl

to

and a

w_HJld ensue.

|_L'l JlS zt('t

Aqttin()'s

Jlll(,lil('lll_ll%

sepitrill_,

(_[ day-I_-_l:_:

t_l'

I[)g_?lhef'"

was

admiHistralioJt

thl,,

WL'II.:

i_(_li_.), maker_,

I_IIV('I-IIIIII('tL

_lillOlllellls illl_,J

Ihe

;let_l Sl_(:rlal iHll_,i(,sls (l_)tllll_ll_,tl hi sell_L_l_e_.l , StlStilllli|l+le Ill ilC¢'_lllllll_ltJdll'

121

St'|'_ill'illt_

t_llVL_l'lllllelll

AqulHo's

r_lroI),

I]I-IIWlll hll(_l'l

•

policy

was

era.

o( her

or

('Olllr:ll'y.

I1()1 "

l_riHcipall)

own.

_f Ihe

((Htld

of

II upon

press,

tile differences

isllellsiJiealh)n

{lesc'rlpll()H

ilnportillll

The

Secretaries

conlllcted

Ihl.ls al_l_ealed

in the prc'ss.

appreciated

Ihe

not

Ihe

lily

speak

their

]')I2|I;II'IIII('IIIs

i_c_slth}Hs aml

;lll(I

often

and

and

of economic

¢)["encroach

i_rogrants,

1,%'ll('ll

Wc)ulLI eml}hnslze

lmpressloH

prevalent

]")epHl'|lll('lltS,

often

cycle

own

various

nature

the pnlicies

upon

objectives

iHso look

these t¢_ negate

their

[()1" Ihelr

news-makinl1

streHglhened,

neutrall_,e

the

concerns

the Secretaries

Ihe

l'_r_)gtill|l

Given

parochial

perceived

other

ilgaillSt

would

tile

thus

to promotlnl_

the conflicts

Thus

and

g_vet'lilllelll

self-feeding

tholr

or at least

when

ht adtlltinn

within

however,

objectives.

decide

basis,

and

p_licy

HlOelillg

sectoral

Deparm_ents,

attempt

Thus

tlireet

Its adjustment,

o( other

.on

could

(.}11a day-to-day

;Is Islands.

concentr;_led

who

I_'l III Jlllel'eSlS,

either

ii()t

l)espite

Ihe

ali(.! avowals need

to

I{_ pla('ale-

Ihe deeJsiollS aild

w_.,J:etile

illll'_ Ih{' Itlitlre

al'li()llS

elemeHIs i+rOlecied

of a from

ll_C,lolV!tlgt_j!llt,_r:l)i.,llilr|!ilt, <if lilt2

llhlllplilllt'S

(]overnlllellt deeply wtlrkinll

' i'lil'(llil

al

wllh

ptilllosi:s,

econonlic

policies

zequlfed

CCOllOlllk:

policy'

¢2eonolni¢ Ihe

affair_,

Aqulilo

structure match

official

the

actujl

coordirl_illD._ varlotis

of

Tile

ecoriolnl¢

policy

overturned

wheil

by the

Executive

of

,_e¢'rel_lr), dc)ctimellls

wiiich

[Jliiillalel), as

Is alh)wed

pleasure,

process

overall concurrent

policy,

often

instead Financ(_

ill

Tile

¢lebale

ihe

lhi2

have

beeil

anti

oil of the own

iliexperiise

In

leadership,

of

his

the I_ascd

siil)nliiletl

122

Secl'elar), lie

in

practice

tilt

It) the

sei_,'es

Aqulllo's

ill

Ihe

as of

most

a the

and

critical or

even

lhttsident

were

Veiled

are

which

._et'relary

a._ lllucll

parameters

NEDA

diili|nished

Io

Ihe

by

an,ill'sis

fact

for

President's

signs

aclion. and behest

the

an

l'×eculive

formillly

power

for

in

lllt_

of Ili(_ l)residf.,nt iias

quite

the

i_ositit-)ns

funcliolls

0xlent

rlol

cotiferred

Its own of

the

served

p_dicy

some

I!x(,¢lillv(.,

Io Ihe ()[fi('e

l!xe('ulive

was

alilhoril),

Ih(,

did

Secretary

Sttt'!'eliil+y's ()n

I(.'g_ll'dililg

NEDA

powers,

wtlh

- ;is Ilil,

Presltleni

iJr evell

Aquifio'I

f;ol/_?

i)lallning

li×eculive

that

° Pfesitielil

the

rec(inliliciidalil)il_

- slnt'e

It was

()f ii leader

gtiv(21"iinit_nt

While

ptdlc),

foillid

President

llle.

i(lilllitTl$

t_l Ili(_ Ic,lili's

l'llilil_i_hie

charged

Presitionl"

Ihe

I1OI,

I)t'llililllit'nlill

ill;i-

ag, pt'egatii_g

- parllcularl),

"for

WIll

It, atlership

plallilitlg

merely

and

wiit-)l't_

tlisiilllt_'¢'nil!iil

Aillllilii.lllTllil'e

illiikliig.

Secrc_lal),,

decisions

It Is apparent

Ihe

l!cononlic

ofl011

ill

;illlll)'si._

dcllned.

tiC decltJt.qntl

mailers,

illlldi']t

auliicli-izalion

iliOlal I¢,dln.

econolnic

and

tile

cle,irl)'

lil_

nect_ss.'ii) 'il)

f(lr

polh')'

(if decision

how(_v(,r, by

COlit-(_l'll

An)'

If ill,ill-l)

illliJl.

alld

made

makhll

Secretary.

act

ill(,nllli(',ilhlll als(i

lillll/o

Ileparllilt, (if

parlictilarl)'

Dnlicy

Ills

i'illlll¢ll

rcllilliliilli

waf

ill'liliicol0

eonlinuing call

Ihe

w_is lioi

dt'.llilrllllenls

authority.

:Hie

I!!.t_lll._itlt'llfi(,'$.

whole.

¢,nlire

Yet the (,cllll(ilnk"

wiih

Director-General

' liiilklnll

s ilnll

gri_alelt

of ecoiionilc

Constitution

area

of

iln!l

as a Illlllltil_OllOillll

This

iloveriiiiieiil

The

Ihe

l(2;illl,

declaraIl(lli

lililh')

,_l,l'l'elluii,

t'l-lisl

Ilonest

al

Is nlodi, Jled

dlvldetl,

lilil!.(:!.inllllZl,_

le(.%vay alld

Execuilve

._0¢ri_|ilr)' |(,11_.|0t| Io |]i0 IlIc_HtJ('lld, ._c_](_II| _,iI,_fhe l_xe(ulive tO ,"tl"}Stil[+ ¢onlrovc+r._y

+II}6.I 11()t l++ls'_ if l+;It'k

l;._r_i(lti;!ll!!l,'._, Philil_rlines

Is

,-ind

rl_h,_

InillClrliltll

i'hilrili'l(,ll._llcl

ill

eurtillletl

The

Iheir

[<lr

lilt,

° _I

Ixx'(1

%'ill+illlli

Ihe

ih<,

illld

b'c(+<ltlcl,

l_iiillpl_ille._

il

_iclli.lll.%'

ill

/:Jl'.xl.

ill_lllliillotl

willing

It) ll+,°r.

i+(,r_lll;llilh'_

! ('ilLillllCi:

i_i,l,%llli,i

elfoctivoli0ss:

dcnlocrllc)

+d

+11111ul+,,v+.tttl,

Nt,crt, larv wa_

i+_)lit+.y

lil_ikilll,

ill" ('(llll'_.,

Ill

llllil+t,

is clear

Ill,it

t,illlt'l

hi

i._, idec_h_ples

lh¢_

the

i_er_iilnill

enliilili'ed

a )'llull

illitl

ill

t

I_,irlles

lir

B_)voriiment £Cillilded

iilid

I

llound

Iollelllt_l"

I(lllli

hlflor),

e_p,-lell),

o1

to

r_llliel"

ll).

crollillli

provide

lh_ui

C_lyot_lllO

b-io_lt-0d,

]_llrilo joilliilli

Ihe

aiilhoril), iiiltl Arroyo

tl[len

•li_ Iinlla

]_lililllct_ li0Oli

Aqiiino

illld

to

wllo

Oliliphlhad

Itl

evlilve.

ll_lSt'tl

ll_

from

Ivill

ileller_illy

illt,

ii

Vel),

efl'i]clivont0s.s infillhiilltl

Justli

Ilit_

1992,

,l.s _l

vei),

ill

lit+,

I-ull

iii

i111<_ wiili

ii

l)_lrt)"s

pers_ilalilies,

_lt'+lc!l_niic"

puli¢),

IO Ille

ni(ire

frO_ll.

cllnifortllbl_

irl

the

_ic_ltlc, mit'i,l_l-lech_locrill lir_l

l;iilailco

l)iiv_il_

unhal)p),

p_irlil+lil_il+l)'

Ihe

irr_l)re_sil)le

"lho

lii_lniil_ei

lhus

NI{I)A

was

l!_Ullli.%l_l(l+

I)et'ani_

Ih,iI

i)il._liell

of

h,ive

° Jlnl)lii'l. Ilie

l_icetved

I_liiii_lur,

b,oills.

_ll" i,l-t,_llel

to

-_iit'l_es_illil

lie ii_

_ilid

I_lllill¢i,iil._

d._._e_iilieiil

Pl,iililtill;,

19_)()

_el_rel_ll),

IheJr

pi_lliiccll

e._ll_li._od,

t-owed,

I_hllipl)iiio

(ill

i_er_inlil,

served

i'_ibiliol+

iidilllilisIrlilivo

hi.s

llt, liot'._

wh_il

Io

Iiilt;.%,

for

relli.sed

l)la)'inl] role

)'el

,Sl_l+lt, lill+) , _ll" I_'illll)iiiit"

Padel'_n[411,

SullPO_'liill_

I_ai'l),

alitl

lrli'_il

l_:lckllrolind,

have

slipp_lrl

posilloll,_

Allililltl'_ I_ls. ,Si)lll_i

idool_lllleS

Willi

._e¢il_tal'),

illdtislr), tile

rt'hlli{lli

diliiiion

I(l

17xt.,l'lllivt;

1)1_1-o1-0

Ihi_

of

liis

ideoit)l_ic_ll

_t_'ci_i,ii)'

Jllk_l

'I 6. Mr.

Carlo._

illltl

I(lutll),

Joll_lllin, whell

Ilio

l)oniintluez, oil

i99(). l)l'Opl_sal

Ihe

Oiillpili flf

the

+\tlricullure

.Seei'etal),

°_iliili-,il,rit.lilllll-t+

iil._l the

lli,l._ °' i)l

het'ilnie i_llilil_l_inl_,s

i)_li_liiill ". All Ihe llresliii't,._ iel!!iiletllv ii[ll.,l" hl;ilill fl)ll:¢:ii i(I IO,_il, li lil_i liO._l.

tlr_ive

12+_

Ihe

lalllel

l-i()lii <Jvi:r.ill

lli

ttl

it._ foi'eitln ._tiititle

19_i9,

e¢tlii_lilit"

ill

spoke

l+olic)'-

i_[ C_lntlre._sioilal

repiidi_lliiltl liinl

1987

inquiries debt

I)t,l_l_'nihe.i"

w,is 11)_7,

iiil

ill llliile ._(ltlil

a

itre_t

Ih_tt

traditionally

|')oillillgtl_2Z

('ollsC)titiCIIl]}

{]()lll_e]_cioli Conlral

- iilid

llallk.

The All

lliilliil_illilll

ilrowIh,

l')olnillllii(_z, lii_

pi-i_tl/2¢(_l.%ill', _lil_,Wlid,

not

Ih_

clinflicl_

w_i'e

ilnil

Iho

l(ilill

I(llik

lOWlk(_) , ll(_rf(Inlllil)

° uiilil

(,lllllll_lfi._

(ill(3 Sl(,p lldt'k"

p(21"lll{I,

Oil ill(:

Aff_lli_!',

(_('Ollillllh"

l_l-(_5itl(,ill

who

Pr(_li_lOlll

h:ld

i_ilrller

portfolios,

Ill_

IVil_ ;11.%oill

ivrs

lhe

"tli_vGllllllll('lll rellitioll,_hli)s

wllh

_olnoer':lli(,-

l:zliill,

rice

It)14 c) I_) lllilillpl AI4i-ictiliurt_ iiliisi

St._t'l't21_ll'y .jt)L,c

Ihi_ Govi:FliOi-

llt!lw_,l:ll

Iow,lrtl

lilil

_l ¢_ll_iil(,I,

lll_

lll_ltliit'liilll

_llltl

Ih(_ io._igii_iliiill

of Ili_

,llitl

of Itio

difi¢ilnlfiled

_t_('l'Ol_ll')"_i _illile

til-

1_o-_i, illld i,ssues as his

il lll_il,)in_llic

A(itlillil

It, vl,I

Jill)ill"

lh(2 ll(:;I._llll |)l'oiillh!

till,

°'lW(i

.]/I)'lili,.

As_isi:inl

llll

wli()

ii ._lililil_

;111¢1 wli_)

ill

I()

Ill,.

_ili

sl_i_s

lilllOr Ilio

Oil

lii_'('flllil'lil

Alllilts.

i_l

;ll[ilial_>S I:rt,_itlc,

I()l_l('i -

llliill

lilt,

[()l

iklilberlo

I_fli.Si

de

lri_ltl

_1,i It, Jill

;\._._i_l_ilil

wli_)

llighwa)'s

l,lli(,ltllill_

Of Ihe

llle

Rurlil

I]_llikt, l

l_li,

liilV_,

lC)_l]

l]c(li]t)lni["

%Volk_ iln¢J '17

the

tl{#[orC'

A_i_lillil

ililt, r¢,._! ill kllOWti

assis!

,_t'ci(_l;Iriu'$

Public

lT¢'()llilllilc

wilt

I_l-Ollll._ iilltl

A_._l,_llilil

Prt_side,iliill

illlll

t_ iIirucll)"

I:_)i" i1_111 (_f lilt,

_.,{'_lii(_llil("

l;iliiillCt,

hiitl

.

"l:rl,._illt'iiliitl

(_f Illl,

I_11. Vl__,llll, ill

_)1 ineli

help

I:;llllilt'l-ll,vel

ofllce,

lll'(-il'0l$()r

;wl._

illid

which

I_t,l._ll_l,_iiill

._iil_ilii_._i(_li_

Presldenlial

Ill;Ill;lift,

hltltl.stl'y

i)rc._,

"Hie ill:l_lintlnenl

AIli.llh_,l

S(_llvCll

iltli(,l

l-i ;11i() did

In._lilll_,¢l

Jr:s111. ,_ _ll;In.gl_lliOill

l)evelol)nl_n

niilllt,

._;ilV Ihc,_{:.

_illo

l_i_i2

Ministers,

i_l_l¢'t'._%,

roviI,wGI!

l)(,v¢_lllllillOlll

lii

_i%'t,r Ilit_

llli

"i'!!.t_'_I'r_Gil!_ll_l!{!l,__i._i_l_li!!._. l)rir_i(lolil

il .silk,ill,ill

Agriculturt_

:llltl

l-in,liice

in lilt:

illleilli_l

I%11",_t, llt, n ll_it';lili

ill(iF¢!

ill

nllltlililic'd _viih

_)t

%%'ilhj'l'_t_ll'

Ihu' Sl_'l'lt, l,ll)'

Illc>,_e i'c)tlll_lili,tl

wllh

px-_)vena,tce

.' |_(ll illl¢) t'(lli|'liCl,S

;ll$1i irlilliletl

Pi-osi¢li_nl.

di_plo)'od

was

(if

cordial Nzlllonal

fop

RiiPit]

I,

,ll Mr. Jaynle was widely peri;_ived I(_ hlivc, bt, ell ilit, ll-c, clivi_ _ll l)olli his :l_i$igilnl(3111$ ;i$ I%linislo.r of I:llliinc(,. iinll llil0r _i._ blininl_,i _il" i'ulllii" %%'ork.s. IIis il$,_il|lllil('llt !o ih(_ Ollic(l i)l" Ilia, lh'l,.sltlt, ill w,i._ ill,_) _l lliail,lul Irdii_iili(lli for hilll, hil'viillJ ll(2t;onl(_ i)ll)'._ll-;lll), wi.,iik ilili: Io llllll.,._.,; lilill liillS lill_lll]/: Io ltlll), lli_iir I|i_ I'lgOl'$ i)f it Secrelary's jol_.

124

The

Pre.sitlenthfl

+l[_i+[)inleeS, wilh

serel|tlil)iluotasl.y,

_t wave

- whil+ped llitd

of cutbacks

up

l+ec(mle

+111t[ i|hti

X'+'t,l'_>t+i;l)' Finally,

t.'o|ifhle_t-e

of the

'[]IOS<2 (}i + tilt'

ih-emitlc|lt

characteristics

of

the

l)e|'St)lht]

will l+y lhe

io hlltlb, e

fl'Ol1'l

i['.lJe_l

lheir

_.'abinet

its

well

('ilhlll(;l

l|let, lll|llS

,_ecretat'le+ +it cabinet _Ip,rt,(%],

as

;|tiLl

llhll

el + the

reduce lh(,

xx'ele

lilt')

t)lh(,r

open

('l(,;lli++_l

(ft

, wilh

._ex.t+l'+ll t';ll+iltt,t

l+rOl)O_Is, lind

her

they

tile

full

.he.it]

'W()tl}t,[

]Icsil;llll

It+ eXelt

the

stronl.l that

|+fell

prevail

over

[+er,.olhl] individual

the.

e×etthm

+sllllicit'ill

(ff

|_Ir th(_+m

a t't)1111111)ll St,llll't'.

tltlrilll_

the

(ll_51(,r

• il m'rimtmit+lJS, lht,

It

l're+,,idv_tt

l.+ik(41 I<) latililalt,

(';lhiai('l

48

lhe

+x'+_lJl(l ll,lv('

tlH,

l++llti_ula1I.x

l}tll'e_ttlCl'+.ll'y".

it is d(_ul)ilul

s(It_ahl+llnl,

concern

()I+ l+olicy

(;ix'el+

In(,,ISllrt-+

the

+list+ coilwided of lmblk"

that

+ xx"t'It'

when

('onlei_t

certain

l+C)+sith)lls +tli_l re+ix-t: i_+w,ild

One

hie,lied

ht+twe,'it

._t,('it'l,ttie+s.

.\'+si_,l+llll'_

- l+articuhlrl+x

there

i_l

('Oille._l

i c'conlmenthiliolls

14+<'xh.hP|llial

Felt 111+11ctmflict, meet|rills

11111+Iht,it

lhelust'Ives,

w/l+

oX'el" "tht?

l,iyt'r

Secretaries

Io

in the

,WCltP llt)t

in<.llvitlt|al

polhy

llJ._l+el;+.

anti

._(,¢'it,l+lli(,_, the

[()¢)VPI('()IIIC

llle)'

disronlinued, lezlvel,lkiiIlg

+,lid lltU('[l I() lhe

ll()l

+111 ,ttitlilh+11,tl

eilhel

et't)lil)lllil"

-

later

"l'hei,

sl_entling

II(ISttll'illg

(',told

were

l_ resign.

in goX,el'llll|elit

t'le+tr lit+It lilt)'

they

i_osititm+'+

([(4"ided

by Collgl'eSSi()ll+,l.[

Secretaries.

|Ol'('e

Assistant

wet,kly

s)slt.,lll. sho111d

14t.,._itle111 l+rt,sidiliF,

stll+tt)lllii+illt,o_

(It,cisitnlS

t'le;tlet]

in the

Wednesday Nt, vt,r+_[

t)r

the

11tel [>e displayed l'lt.,si(It,11t + (]luster

Aquino "A"

lor

+

Agro-llldl_Stt+i+_l Development, assigned

l)evelol+m(,llt "I)"

for

as members

,

'°It"

hlfrastrtwture, to one

(n" more

l_)l

lht,

.+trill "E" of

l_lacr+)t,c_+l_t+in.V, for

Security.

the clttsters

"t+"

(+lib|net

depending

I_)r

members on

their

+_ot+lal were areas

of

•18 Whelher the lqllljl+i_ine I,l_.;tucr;|_'). is "lfl(),tled" |nerit$ elnpiric;li investlil+ttion. A te_ltttlix,c :look ;11 sex,c,r;ll ralios of Ille size of governmel+t and tile eCOllon'_), (bud||et over GNP, ;t|lrirull(!re I,udl,_el ()x'er al.lricullure GI)P, gox'ernnlent pero-_nnel over population, ere) , and coinl+arlson of these to say, Thailand, Indonesia and Mala),slzt shows tl_at tile Phllll+plnes does h+tx, e the sm+tllest •i+urenut-racy, with tile smallest htltl|lel. AI +l lime or ec(>i+o_+lic _lf'ess +t[ltI vet's' tight budgets, and eonse(ltlenlly ctmstr:linctl distrihutio_l ()r largesse, the bureattcrncy becomes an e:_sy tarllet r()r redistribution.

responsll_ility. of

For examl_le, the inend)ership

Agriculture,

•r(itli.IsiIi,

Agrarian

]!liVii'(llllll(:ltl

Rural

;ltitl

Development.

btlreaus,

agencies

Reform,

aud

"l'ratlt,

Nzttlll'_il

l)epentling

(ff (.:luster and

I{i,%lllllt't's,

on

Intlil.slry, illltl

tile ageild.'i,

corpora((otis,

tit" other

A included

Ihe'

the

tile Secretaries

i!eononlic I_ii-'._Jdt.Hllliil

heads

Secrel.tl'ies,

A_i.,iiSl,tllt

(if various were

IH_lilning, Oll

specialized

also present

at the

meetings.

The addition

Clu_ters.and

N!:.DA.

to the existing

Development, whicli

T:triff

already

Sect'etarles

who

ill charge

was

bc, resolved

Rel:ited

with

NEDA

level

the

agentl,t,

prior

the resolulicm

iliUOnll

ministers

who

tliF_usod

Ihe

matters

In their

ill

tles(,'lilletl

SOllle itll(ive

Aqliino

(iflit'ilils.

llliVille

si21:l(li'.

exleill Were I%hlsl I%lllsl

Ihe bliiil (if hail

Coordination)

also

included

el(islet

the

syStelU

thus

Secretary,

whicll

matters

needed

Itoard,

Cablllet

whlcll

met

to

agenda.

The

mot'ithly.

The

but at the cost of lengthy, of scheduliiig

busy

tlOile

Social

Cabinet

ill the

issues,

in

The

lit Iheir

iJl the

Sl_ecilic

meetings

regular

The (;luster

tlt't'lxi(lll-illilkin|_,.

duties

systt, tn

l}o[_arlllleiils

ill$o for

jurisdlctiims.

!._1( H!it'i_l!,S_

)!!.|!cilt!t_l'a ll!L..i._!_Cl._U!icaL!!!L'_l_._:!;i.t:!lt;t' w()

[flicks.

Tilt: tllfHcullics

l t,Sl_(tllsil_ilily

iilitl

and

detertidlled

illicit(l),

Ioltlt tlehi)'s

Iht: at'COtlttlltl_llity

particular

were

Budget

lhtr ¢al_lnet

_llltl

of some

ilfttl tllsl'tlsslcm.

I(iWaltl

issues

l_l Iht: Nlil)A

rneelings

COlllril)lilOd

same

structures

Coordination,

i)eveltHmient

to its ii_trlusir)n

tinie-eonsumlnp, cabinet

and

l{O_lltl

tile age(ilia

facilitate

{lilvestmeiit

oveil,tl_ping,

of the C:_bint:t's

maltalled

help

of

if sontewhat

at the cluster

did

Matters,

were committee

clusters

['omnliltees

many

The

parallel,

NIiI')A Secretary Clusters

and

as members. aionB

cabinet

NI!!)A Board

dealt

operated

The

,'_)*,ilOIIIs

t'Cmll_lt,x lil_ Iho

(line

Ic) lilt'

('alliii_.l

i'(lllll,,

tlllt_

It,ill

,lllll

IHlu(_ilti( I_t'('ll

{i_t_.ililll_,lil

12{i

stllls)'._li:lils ratio iIliiivii wIIIi

()1" dt'('ilitm-nhlkillg

iileXl_C>lieiice ililll lilt?

()|

ll()Velilliil,lll illllll-{.,,%sillll

as

inilsl

(if

liie

li(liii

Ilil,

Iliill

Ihc.

bureaucr:Icy

was filled

exceptions,

tile

was wholesale of"

fil'Sl

_¢ilh lazy,

and

polilical

steps taken l+y tile Aquilirl

lllitj()r

reorgat;izatlon,

ol'l'Iclals

In('ompelel|l,

staff

with

-

lhe resignation,

.q process

apl_oinlees.

With

governMu.l

upoll

rel)lacemenl

t-onslstent

wlth

and

the

a few

its entry

reshuffling

idea

of

"de-

M.'l rco sl flca I ion -.4 9

lSlost of Aqul,lo's initially

as volunteez's,

It is now clear successful lhe

of

the private

seclor,

government

Marcos

lhe

many

had

to attempt limited

lhill

aild

lhey since

a shared

information

lost

with

the

were

experience

such norms, withln

with

lhe /_l_ircos to she

wltll

mores

records

the cullure and

constraints

in alld

praclJces

had

Finally,

the

the agencies.

expecialiOnS

;irJd difficult

for

whole gale

had had in_pressive ttnlanilli_li

hislory

is required

enf[irced, froin

even

to "do right".

;.II1d

of lhe |.uard

to meet the tremendous resotlr('es

some

of the population inheriled

from

the

regime.

officlllls

suilstilntial

dlsc(iver aillotlrll

fllanligelneill 5),llelll$

wils

government,

ilZltl goc)dwill

of lhe llew managers

]_.lilll;ll_!llil_|hl_..ll!ll'l_ill!l_!'_lt'y. IleW

into

.'uld determination

inside

changin[l

p:Irllcuhlrly

time

can,e

eiltlluslilsl'll

bureaticr_ic),

through

the very

l|lill

vltluilhle

II _,_';Isclear

of goveri_menl,

developed

Inore

marked

While

won_e,l

a lot of enthusiasm

Much

lhe

that

regimes.

tltilizing

much

goverllance.

rebrganizalio[Is

systems

with

that

workings

Aquino

me** a,ld

(if

Ihlil

the

lnslitlliiolI,M

of Ille llureiliit'rill-)0,

for per(orlliilllCe

iilllll.iliglil

In nl,lii)

t'iisl.,s, llill)'

reorgiiniz.lilioils iIIf_lllill'),

The)'

had

Ihill

iilitl

Ill

dill

Ill,lily

or

dislfirled

the

Ihe lnct_lillVe

llillll._hillelil

.19 Alllh(_rilallve ;Inill),,_t.._ ()1 i|llVt'lllnl_'lll,ll _illtl'_,_i_lliS I_lillilllliiie_ is [1)' CiirJii_l (ICiCll I .ili_l I ,iliii_i ( I'i_i21.

127

eiilsfad

is l'rilit:_l

iil,_) (()filial Ihiil

, i'l_,wiirll

ht'liiledl)'

iire

,lild

(if lhe _i

pragllllllic aiid

reward

iltlii_

dilferelil

Irliil,_ili_)iis

ill

Ihc'

compared

to those

I_ureaucraey's from

l)tlbllc

in the

cllenlele

:tl'q+r()l+l'lath)H._,

;tHtl

implied

monitorhig.

"l'l_e offlci:tls

duriHp,

whi('h

many

acli()ll

was decisive.

ropes

and

were

action

sector.

arid consequently

i_overmHeHt

effective

private

major

115 a('_-,itilll.'l|'_llil)'

Ihus

had

were

had

itt

math,,

their

fl'l)lit

inability

inslrtlctioHs were able se_:'tor,

to as I)arl

time-consumlHg Ministers

the

Iheir

such

I+y tht; time

full

()f

tile

re!nslated

ui)oti iHsIrUCIIoHs

modifications ranges

I)y

Mill|stets

ill

are

only

baudget..

its financing rel+reselltative

iml+lementatlon

and

learning

periods,

I Jill|+ wl|tPII

el let'tive,

successful

Iht: tfllicials

had for

learned

the

deci_,ive,

most

hire illltl

._t,trllXt.tl

their

lire

and

at v¢ill as they iH Ihe

t)y the

(_ix,il Service

Critic.

i_l+ivale complex,

The

f(mH(l many

tlismi+setl

the t{J |'le

orders

itl-(..' gt),+'erHed

"I'lle

|Hit)

new

of their

elllfll()y(2e5

were

of Ille {;otJrl.

also

discovered

Ihe

allowetl

waile

IhiLI

alitl

"l|y

by

then

within

to the availability settled

the time

128

Hot reward

is fixed even

subject

f()uHd, as they

50 Rentindlng its of the,adage changed all the questlonsl"

Ihey

structure

upward,

performance, They

the

(+(Jtlrl.

x_+hat

wilh

iiHtl l irt+'d i+e()l+le laler

Stll'Jlt:Jlle

corot'

<)Itch llossit)le

I)tlrea|lfiil(.)' IW

|ly

c<)mpliaHt*e

llist'elioH

Ihe

xvht+ hail

.'lit, t+ Ilil%llalt't|

(<_ttltl they

matxdatetl

IIle

since

for meritorious

government

Nt'ilher

re()igatliz:ili(His

ovefll.lrlletl

incentives,

'o,'t'lt'

illallagtqial

tle(-isitms

wild effecletl

wage

via

size or tile

extended

managt'ts

aHtl immt'diate

stalfs.

decisions

of

.%('('1_1'

i}rocedttres

The new

ciilzt.,H.,i

setting,

al ;i

itself,

the ,,villd+)w el + ()l+i_orttt|litY

I}l"lviiltr

to exact

siilce

large

ch)setl, fit)

thl.'

from

goal

anti

l:r_t!!!+tXV!+!k. 'lilt' It)lll't?atl('lfa(_}'

It)

It, p,(_ Ihrt_ugh

|)llfOl'tllllilll.?ly,

to arl.

trenleHtlously

of the btlrt:att('racy

dlfleteHces

mis_lakes

ready

The

more

I learned

into

Hot pttHislt law,

and

severely of funds the|,"

jobs,

all the answers,

by use

any

wage

restricted from

the

that

the

they

had

most

riley

could

assign them

do with

staff

to the freezer"

they

fnund

they

- It) move these

su,rf,

or to rel_tons or sites its far rolllOVed often

bring

in a consultant

to the

l_rohlem

- I¢ only transferred

budget

lask

continued

at hand.

oth(;r

other

In I)_ more

(al

hy Aqulno mollll)er$

l_ittt_i_tg_/£__of

its

and

targets

e×pectathms;

few

often

;is

;t Ih<+usilnd

as 60 thor=sand working

with very

_./I_.I!]III!I..LGiLO.r/i- sl=|ce their

puhllc

pe,'ceptions,

and finally

(d)

nolillcians-

slate

they

wlHch

more often

the least amotH1t of reorganlzatlu|_

:llsl'mnsalion.

did

also

"Phese

those were

lh;tl

fasle,,

"...to

to non-tasks,

considered not

more

eliminate

Tire drain

some

- w_|s Illill

the

on the

()f the lessons

later,

Ill(.*

,_n a n:it|t,nal ill

and

as had hi|d

SfAC1"/_lill'i_$

to

work

with

took ph, ce - aside

of

the

staff

(>f lludget

of Edt=c.'llion. to achieve

of and

Culture

iHllbil|OUS

the i=ledid il_)tl the fornlalion

conslituencies,

from

year

tile

with

where

cl_ange in the

more

u,_der

under

Aquino

of

satisfied.

that tile Ministries

reli_tively initial

often

not be adequately

It is thus revealing

111o cltses

wlth

and _ll;Mnst vested il_teres[s,

than nol could

a¢coluplished

scale

l)eparlme_l!

resources

liillll_2_.l

J()l_s Involved

had

lhe

i,= Ihe l)el+artme==t

p()li(-y l_()silions,

Givei_ the above experiences,

were

- some

hureat,clacies,

(c)

leadership,

was

In addllh)== thc,y had I() I)(::

ilg|g(A/L/|le._- for particular

inlerests

they

_[_lh_:_!lAl!gk_.g£1t_._'.. ()he

pl_eviolls I*l¢'Sltleltls

(b)

conflicting

memhers

In |hue and place.

memh,:rs

le('hl|()('r:ll._.

h,,ge

to as many

ilnd Sporls. and

IIIIdt:r

their

from

M.'tt+agemen,

temporarily,

stleh solttlh)ltS

the Iwohlems

cat,tact

Illan an:llylical

Ihot=sands

with

and even increased.

learned

('al)lnet

albeit

stall

Of course,

_£).!]]__]._:_or!LJlL._]).C__htni!g_:!!l¢!)[. tha! _Is

not work

front lhe ,'If'lion a._ l)C)ssihle, Then Ihey would

or shift

effective

could

lop

lhe new of

the, I

129

lleD_u'Imeni General

of

Finance

Monsod.

is a levhiihan, niucil

hlis

orlalllzliiioil;ll

tti

provides

process,

loam

rates

ayer;Ige

lellgt|i

ye_irs.

Ph'lnillng

nleanl;

tli,qt

,'lntl

the

tile

dtimately

of

tile

hlittisler

C()ncepcion.

but

weiglicd

dt2vehll_nlt2ill

- iillicil

hlinself.

The

It) the

corp

NIJI.)A

c)pposlng

iiild

ill belonging

under

Direc[of

direction,

of

The

down lit

IOluli that

Thus of

is Ilie

Ihat

sllines iliid

inertia.

iiistlilkilioii

of wllich

t!le and

the

bureaucracy

by

tile

reward

is engendered

seen

iiliiong

ill

"l'itllle

illllong leiiglh

shorter,

prollleill growlil

of quick, palliative

set'vice

leiini

coitld

e×ill. not

all

personal

bureaucracy nchievos,

and

llurltiletl.

reiltlll),

foctissed

enlel'gonc),,

dfly-lo-tlil).

and

$Olllilolls

Iht,

six

.Vents

nrll

illtd frilly

I_ased oil

(if Atluino's IVilS _l|llltit

gel. ililtl the

I_o Itlrlllilhllt, tip Iheir

"l'rlsis Ihiil

unsustlllnable.

130

walcli

the

IwO ,'tnd

one-

ih_ll

ii Sllllred

:tnd and

hlsltli-),

llllderstilntlillg

el F

set of ilCiJons IOWal-d It

eiit, l'ly

ni,lllilgelllOnl

ilSSlial]e

serious

|eadership

¢(lilinlon

d.

il

foP relic)'

aiiiil)'licill

il lilil)'-tt_ordlilillecl

liltlst

also

tlnderseci'etilries

lloiilic!il tlltl

was

officors

liilliliitjel's

tlf

'l'htis

nlanligers

"band-aid"

lile

t,¢'¢liitliilit"

It,_lniwotk ntll

senior

over

l;requenl

the ecoilolulC

did

tile

20,

her tlf

which-flicllltntes

et'olionlie

tile2 exillellciel

the

it_iinl-iltiilding

l_linisler

turnover

aver;llJe even

Iho o.l'onolnic

tire

be

wits

l'eCOVel'y

lind

lie

in

i'ort'e,

lit

esprit

o1" Sel'i'ice

The

(if O._l_Ol-leliCij

th,qt

of

AS olin

Ill'ol_lein.

c_tse,

and

in l.eadershjp.

llillh

chaliges

the

Is personal pride

FrequentChanges

hlllf

of

the

treinettdous

of rofoiin

()ilgl)In

under"

be invested

inteiltions

in a cyclical

illso

hidttstry

of

visioil

arid

wits

and

c:q_able

effort

vision

Such

of Trade

Departnlent

8lini._iur

under

sIiol't-lOrlll

is also In

llol

stirprlSillll

fire-filhling

'° - it coille×l denlilll(15

, oil ripe

for

bill

are

7

,Table 20

Key

I

Department 'Ministry/ •

""

Mlnistersl

Economic

Officials,

-_1]

Secretories

1986-92

Planning Undersecretaries for

Policy

and

,i*

Otiice of iho President/ Executive Secretary Agliculture

Budget •and Managemenl Centra-I B<qnk Finat_co

Nali0nal Economic and

Joker "P. Arroyo (2/86.9/87) JViceni_ R. Jayme. P_es_denllal As,sislanl Ior Catalino M Macara'K'l(9/87. 12/90) Economic Affairs ( 11,30• I/91 ) Oscar M. Otbos 112,_30- /,_.31) Edflbetlo de Jesus, PresK_onlial Adveser on Franklitl M Drilon 17/9!_. 6h'32_) ftufal [')u_velopl)_eni, 111188.- 5_1) = Ramon V. Mitfa (2/8G - 3181} Caclos G Donunguez (2/86 - 12/06) Carlos G, Dommguez 13187 • lOJ89) Robetlo W Ansaldo 12/87 - 12/88) Senen C. Bacani (I/90 - 6/92.) . . V Bruce J loletfl,lo ((J/88 - 6/92} Alberto G, Romulo (2/86- 3/87) i.3ei_jamio Dioknu 12/86 - 2/92 ) Guillem_o N Carague (3/87 - 2FJ2) Emdlme Boncodm (2/92 - 6/92) Salvador M. Endqqez Jr. (2/92-6/92) ,Jose Fernandez (21R6 - 12/89) ....Ed_lmdo Z_alcila 12_]6 _ 6/92) ,Jose Cuislt't 11/90 • .6../9. 2) ..... Jalme Ongpin (2/116 - 9187) EttleSl Leud_(2/S6 - i 2_0) Vicente rl Jayme (9/87 • 12/90) Romeo Bemardo (t191 - 6/92) Jesus P. Esla.nislao 112/90.6192) Solita C Monsod 12186- 6f89) Filolooo L Pa¢ite Jr (2i86 - 8189) ,Jesus P Eslattislao (9189 - 12/89) FIo[ian A Albuco (8/89 - 11189)

Development Authority

Cayelano Pacle+nnga ( 1/90 • 619;_,)

Trade and Industly/[3oa_¢1 el Investments

Jose S, Concepcion Jr 12186 12/90) Peter D Gatrucl_o Jr ( tFJI - 2/92) Lilia t3 _auhsla (2_ht - (_,t;?) •

I31

(.:;ayelano Ponciat_o SW h_lal Padetanga Jr (Ih30-Jr. t.P-Ir-JO) ( 1 I/t_,9"c, , •1_/89)/'i/ labile _ - 6/92 C,iehlo t- I __ EH_eslo T Ot(.lenezfTomas Alcanlara (2/86 t 2187) GIo;_a M Alt(wo/Tomas Alcantafa (1f88 - 2/92) [_¢neslo 1- O+donez/l'omas Alcantafa (2/92 6192)

_l'he ilecord

o1" Eeoxl_nc,!_._.i._.J_.[._J!!lJ!!g

The NaUonal 19"/2

Phillpl_ines' l_.coriomlc

by

thnt

]!COllOmic

Council

for

General,

Iniegraled

and

Area

Phlllpplxle

many

lhe

.slemlll)'

v:uious

_ind

wilhhi

largely illitl

of Marllal

law,

by evadixlli

elilicenlenl

¢_lfices

in and

- ltlt'iudiilg

Agem'y,

of lhe

the

the

National

Assistant

firs!

NI:.DA

on

l)ireclor-

iJf l!_'¢)nomics ill lhe l.lrliversily

lhe hureal,crac'y

oI" ili_ economic

al larlle.

The NIiI'_A

illli.l lliforlililll()l'l

relurn

cycle

o[" being

Nli i)A

fronl

lille

Ilie

Ihe

develol'Imeill

o11

COiii'_i_i

$1rilCltll'e lillll)

liriivlded

niechliliisnl

NF.I)A, ii._ well ill

_cliolilrshil lhe

o[ sliIl

planners

a_id economic

I, u_lilill), llesi lielLer

132

Io ilie assured

ilhrolid.

eiilrillllS, eiiirailll

Ille

il liclltl

llil

Tliis

gellei'ale iillo

llle

and

iilld

tis_lf

sooll afier

galhered

hi lhe e_Irl), years salill'y

This

able to illlracl

and the altrilClion

of

i'eillr,illTed

li-liillllll_

shlce bel,_fl creilled

has undouhledly

bureaucr:icy,

asslsllince.

£or enlry

upon

quality,

Ihe

and oilier

£oreitlli

the NIiDA

the i.loverllXllelll

Also,

Wiltl(.',_.

Iilroullh

l_re.,ildents

_lll_ll)°.%l.sell .,ihlll.%llcs, dillil

be-sl coIleclion

in lhe Phlllppine

scliiillirshll_._

tile

economy.

iLS i_allks lhe

analysl$

course

NI!!)A was ¢realed

lf_¢'_i,;setl _irl lhe uplLradJnll

The N_]')_%O!'g_ril#.a "¢UD.!h eve," Its liislo,'y declaration

of

tl_e l'resltlenllal

leaderslill_

.skills of lhe NI!I')A iiliLl iln(l

is

eccmcDmi_" plannlni_

ihe r_resligi(_Its Sclmo|

lhe llillhelInll

The

l'rl)l_lil111 Inil_lemeniaii()n

I)evel¢)pmenl,

lhe NI!I'IA

agency

(N!!!_A)

l_y the

l,lnder

Slca( from

l_lailiilnlJ

also (-()nsolld:lled lhe

Ill(,

Develol_melil.

Gerardo

Ihe

t'reated

C.i)UllCll,

of lhe l_hllll_plnes, policy

been

I_lanninl_

Aulhorlly

eon._olldaiinl;

had

Nallonal

Communlly

economic

:,rod l'_evelorbmenl

by Marc'n._

conimls.li¢Ins

central

developed

lhls was accomplished higher

Oi'fel'Jlill

tll';llliJllt_

ill

sal_,ries _lul_

for

l_hiliPi)ine

llLlreiiucl'ilc)'

ihe

a n_)n-watle

Ihe

NITI)A irilhi_d

e._lahli_ilied il repulal.ion

Ihe NI:,DA.

liidividu_ll ii

positive of good

The enactment eliminated

the

._chol:trshlps

of the .'.;alary .',;'landardizalio,)

NEDA's advantage

is also currently

good

reason.

The NEI)A

esprit

de corp.

now complain

under

of being

is atteml)ling

unable

Ill('

its reputalion

in its i)lantilla,

the best gvaduale$

tlniv(,rslly

through

hut from

suc('essful

capable

alltl

planners

process and

tile NEDA's overall |)olicymaklng I)alace,

_Jf lit(.' Iqlilipi)inos)

soon

l)hll|pplnes,

Lady

government

on NEDA Nelson's

thence

joining

sector has

like

Marcos,

to leave

pilots steering

the

more

quite

World

levers

and

in guiding

sheer

wl}ere

before

into

disfavor

then

the

economic by the

openly

clasliing

alad poweF

waned.

University

or

the

Bank. o1' the

is, at best, poor.

equipment."

]33

,.uccess

in

fair, the NIiDA's record the converse

tile NI-I')A may

of some do

NI!I)A's

hi fact, To

that

However,

and ('oordinating

to

on

to exact compliance

NEDA's influence return

of

()f highly

recu|nmendations.

wishes of, and

and

the leadership

l.aw, 1[ could rely

_,%thenSteal fell

_ tile

successfull

ci_aracterization pulling

Martial

Sic:it and

record policy

been

Under

decisioas

govern.tent the

and

has

been

(1991)

actual

lmelda

strategy

prlv:tte

policy

sUi)l)ortin

not

while

an

is aL best /ltixeti.

chose

Overall,

building

analysis.

record of effectiveness

l'eportedly

the first

al

of I}einl, very ci(Jse to the l'al:ice

and strategy

after

for

the Philippines'

(_rganization

NI:.DA was quite

its planning

on

NFI)A officials

the

wllh

the

vacancies

hold

Service Commission,

umlvv

reputation

rather

by the Civil

centralized

a_ray.

the NbDA's early

the

Niii_A's

"rj 'l_L.N_liL)JLit_...thc_/_E_ilollliL'_Z%.ulJ(t.)!ity, I'arlicularly

technically

Sicat

The

t() preserve

I() attract

(l_arllcularly

these had to be turned

with

attack

The NI,.'DA has many

best universities

Sic:|t,

izl salaries.

I_lw in 1989 has since largely

not

coordinating at influencing

of private

be aptly

countries'

economic

connect,

or connect

influence

Joan

applied

managers only

as "...

loosely,

to

Aside includes

from

the

Mai_agenlenl,

the NEDA0 the

Departments Agriculture

Departmellt

and

of Tourism

tile NEDA was not

various

limes

the

of

Trade

the

Cezllral

is included

period,

Secrelary

times

a complex

of committees

made

tiledecisions

these were

PlesitJelllJ_|

ilatioll;_!

5ec'ttl|t)',

As$1stalll$*'

_Vel'e

Industry,

l|ank

overall

other

tll:iCl'OeCOl'ZOilly,

a1_d

in this

[ICCOl't|ed

F.xeculive

agencies of the

sel of economic

of the

Ihe

core of the organization

The overall

in the

to

Developmelit

tile

variotls

Budget,

hlfraslrucltire,

elc.

technic_tl

These

azzd offices of the appropriate IhO

le('lllliCid

Bfl_tf'd

cotlfirms

Thus Infhlence While

C()llllllllle(IS

it Is clear

its plan|ling

little

not

Implement

of ccot_omic

commltlees:

Development. s are

rc,l_reseallali(),l

rank.

[t)r

¢'ill_Jilet

System

of agro-induslry, |}oiiH

"cooltlilt_tlJiig IllLIlter5.

itself is a compleĂ— by tile Presidenl.

which

is essen(ially

lnvestmetlt and Ill

Matters,

levels:

facmu Ihe various

C()l|llllilleeS

The

a service

Relaled

Ihree

or"

Coordination,

cabinet.

l)epartmenls

The s_ibc()mmittt, es do detailed

IhC

At At

Assistance

eCOIIOIHiC

chaired

c_lganizetl

policy.

recommendalhms.

(me

Tariff

Aquino

decide,

basic work,

aliCl

Ihe

NI-I)A

decisions.

Is moral

has

in the

structtire

Board,

NI_I)A

qll;li)'z(L

Particularly

AI

()l]_

',vlth

secretaihtt,

wilh

the

Cabinet

(..It'.

is tile

c()mmlllet,

a,zd sul_conllmltlee,

Sometimes

so-called

;il_|'_{jilllL't|,

Social

Philil)pines.

the "Cal)lllctCluslers"

I_ocly is Ihe NI!I)A

NE'DA orgat_iT.ati(m

and

NI!I)A's

_J_L_)A:_t!'uCL9L'C. The Nlil)A tlecisi(m-makhlg committees.

Budget

coordinatitm

hll'rli_lltlcttlre.

eVell

Finance,

group.

retied

government

recourse the

that the only

suasion. aclivllies but

The are

to discuss,

plan

fuildame,ltal

NF.I)A holds covered

and

cooperale.

134

eft the NI:'I)A's ix)_s_r and

vt, r), little,

by

and dl_uss

as expected,

source

Prcsldenlhll again,

the

if at W, regulalory lnstructh)ns,

whel_ government

private

sector

powers. tile

agencies

is noi persuaded

NF.DA do to

P:lrticularly was relatively

Ill the Aquit_o

ineffuclual.

period,

While

th_ NI!I)A

:tgency0 it does not have any sigHificanl rest

of government

according

to

dialogue

the

and

orl_anlzed

and

FurlherlTIore,

under

or actlnlI

ill lai'Jff

It, hJl'll) alltl

in the expressed the

l)ef_artment

strategy

'"

the

stabilization

have

that

and the and

will

if H()t all

and

ill)t1

_'(_()rtliHath)H

Io Ihe

ceHtra]

private

It_thtstry

clash

i}ohll

with

or act

bodies

anti

desires

thc_se ¢)f Ihe

(_f I_Hily ('ill) only

are

either

experiences Ii) lit)Jill.

plan.

rationalized

for

Industry.

iiH(I resl)t)HsJve I]le

l]l_

bodies

and

i'hiilpl3ines'

power-

the inlnletlhlle

l|lat

business

of Trade

()f

been

()( "pe()ple

Clearly

is mulually

has

planning

critical

alc _ cases

tliret:lioHs

tlir{,('lt(HI

The

The

PhilifJl)inc5

its directives

of tile

govez-HtueHt

the

l() ensure

f_)llow

I¢_ I_' Hl()l'e 5eHslljvt:

democracy,

The

to tl_eir This

and

non-

defended

sensitivity

to "the

o/" the (lienls

of say,

far_ners

served

I)t: iH il c()ll)lllOn

by palh

d(,siretl.

th._!!._.lLg_l_:l).__A_

relalivo is

nor _ulhorily

i)rt'st'lll)lh)Hs.

I)eeH

ec'()n[)llllC

what

O_her

NI_DA

macroeconomics facilitating

they

of the people".

toward

It is clear

offices,

than

a_ the

tl)e I)el_arl|uent

JllVt°Sllllt'lll

()( Agrict|llure,

Minlslrles

the

have2 t(?l)tlotl

of Trade

Ille Del)artment and

iiJtl illltl

of part'lcipative

needs

blest0

Iht: Ni!I)A's

to overall

spirit

sector

in

eXl'_twll°llt-e (ff Ihe ITI'I :|fltl its (-()llli)()lltrl)l

against

doi'Ktl'lll)trnl._

responsiveness

i)lan, between

is clear

there

"clieHts"

i'H'iville

planning

is |deHiilicd

p()wer

the NI-I)A I)ut under

iBnorlnll

direct

tile

development

collaboration

not

IndivldtHiI

even

ec()nomic

the

I(_ Ih[: best-staffed

(levelt)l_nlent

l'orn)ulath)n adjustment.

rest

aHtl

whi('h

of

the

by

pr()fessh)nals

is crucial

management

In addition

135

I'llllll)l)iHes'

h)r Ihe of

a

to lls relatively

IIHe government with

training

techni('al l)rogt'atn deep

in

background of

bench,

economic the NEDA

also has access was expressly

totile

created

the government was

quite

maniigement:

Agriculture

backgrounds

leaving

scene

of the

Finance

and lawyers

(Table

22).

Studies

lit'onomic

Ministries

i'r_.,sitit,llt, I:il|itHC(.',

The

tendons'its

dominated

and

other

blonsod,

late, only in late

pecuniary

businessmen

making. ''51

(PIDS) which

analysis

critical I_t'Jtll'itl

only

Ministers

Jose

l/stanislao

Secretary

fur close to four years

general,

the

however,

were qu,lshed

,and most of the cabinet,

rather

along

in

Secretarle_i.

as her liberal

President

for Developme,tt

for

assist

capacity economic

l|altk,

"l'i'itde

and

,-utd Budget aitd Management.

were

Solita Monsod

polh'y

tutti

thin

the,Office

__¢partmenl

Institute

In 1_.)77 by then NI!DA i)G Gerardo Stoat "... to directly

In planning

however

Industry,

Philippine

i!slattlslit(},

and

lawyers

firms, banks and clients,

tend which

the

In the

Planning

Secretary

by the conse_'vative

bent of the

h;tJul, arrived

oH the2 olhur

lyolicy

the tiDSA revolulio_l.

aside,

economics

two years,

the rest of tl_e eco_zomlc portfolio. motives

intensive

was in office for barely

1990, after economic after

with

training

immediate,

may be incompatible

and direct

oil the

l_ad already

muddled

Businessmen,

bankers

It is fair to say that i_ outlooks

of

welfare

bankers,

of individual

with that of the economy

as

a wlmle, over the long run.

IJJ..I.t._/el'_gq2cretaJ'Jes.

analytical Planning effectiveness

officers (Table

There

of the 21).

btinistries

Aside

of these officbrs

w_r_J

from

H_ore

uc.-ol_oJnlsts

itntollg

- tl_e Undersecretaries their

itl providing

inherent economic

ablliltes, input

the

for

senior

Policy

however,

to their principals

and the -

51 The PIDS was created after the UPSi- hesitated, for reasons of academic lnclependence, from policy analysis upon the behest of the Ni:DA. "l'l_e monetization proceeds of IJ.S. Pt|bllc I.aw 480 grain aid formed the initial _nclowment of the PIDS.

136

32

.

-

"_

_

_

m_"

_

_

_

_

l

_

_

_

_

__

C

_ _ _ ___

o O9"

_

,_ _

l

_o

c

E

O'

_

_

'

_

_

c

I

: _

_lEE'_l_

r't"l_C

0

0

_

C

_

r

o

0 o

0

vt_

C

0

-

,.,,., W

,_

,_®u

TM

03

_

"

o.-

UJ

c

l

o 6 8 w8 w,.,UJ

CO ww

II

_

.o

l

_

_

o

_

"-",,o

,,.,.

°° r_ ¢.3 ¢13Z3

_

_ _o o _ _ +o ooooo.°.

(/3 O

"_ +._0

_1)

o

_

_

r"

o

o _ (Dw

_

o

1

_ _

o

.

Q c

_

_

_

.

_

0

_

}

-'-

_ _o+ -.

_

L)[

lO _= 0

o o . .

--

(,.9

_

--

_ o _'_l <_&-_8 => tU a_(_9

o

,

'

_,o _ .q_ _

_

>(30

_._

"-_

,__

.o,_8._o

_

_o'

_

i_ _

=

,.- _ o

"0

0

i_O

0

o TM .-

-" 137

Mlnisl(.,rs,

was

Gild

tzlilize

Ihe

was

utilized

to

Budget

and

l)lanning

w|th

inpul.

also

al)d

"l'eam,

Planning

Service.

analytical

power

addil[oll

no|

agrlcullural CcJordlnalh)Jl ]_lilllilgelllell[

upc)n

Ihe

53

Budgetary the

PAl) lhe

- to only

illlalysis

concerJls.

t_(_I have

Mini_lries Io

i_,dh'y

unlt.

advice

t)f

tile

_Jl' a Pollt'y

Ihree

however, atlalysls,

l)epdl'll)lelll

ly Sl,lll_'d

al)d

a ll_'al

l_,li_)

_llso

burdened

did

not

have

slaffs

period,

(_n a slnall

tl_c

circle

o2

Plannint[

Service

19B(_ Agriculture

Depuly

Agricultural

Aqalysis

o1 less

The .slat|

Policy

and

within

the

II_e size

and

Division

limiled

oI" "l'ri_de

' a,h_l)'.sis

As

bureaucracy.

bolh than

Ph.D.

iSStleS, it also

hurd_,_led.

and

Ihe

The

In

Policy

Aquim)

advit'e

()I ll_at'roet'OllOmic The

Ihe

i:inance,

principals.

were

It) running

Ix)licy

co_)slralnls,

of

of their

o1" AgricLlllure.

file

organizalion

Ol'lic'e was shllil.ll did

bllllisler

listen policy

for

they

Prior

for

io

l)ei)arlments

support

o1 Ihe

Issues.

hi, re at_ coOl,omit

caused

ecol]onlic

most

Iqinister

l.Jndersecretaries

related

tlel_e,)dtxl

the

Ihe

to Ihe

lasks

the

_)n matroet:onolnic

l)eparlmenls,

()1" economic

D_)minguez,

to attennpling

allenti{)n

o|

iJ)pul

and

lhe

Fhlally,

had

Iht, ir

NI!I)A,

respec;ive

aroulld

of

the

lll;,lli;l||¢2lllerll

anal),sls

did

Carlos

full

A_q_l!_vsis Slaff.,'i.

l|athered

of tl_e Mi1_istry

Slrategy

devote

_)l" Agricullure

col}sullants

a!

willingness

Ih,l!

[Inforlunately,

Ill their

Io Ihe

l)el_arllnenl

iI Is evjdenl *le,lgllls

not

adminislrative

l_Ilnister

52.

officers

dedicaled

del_c:ndent t)n Ihe

varying

J.:conomic

illlcl

cot,rse

Agriculture.

could

second-tlel"

of

illld

had

lo

lnduslr)"_

l)el)illllllel)l - illltl

level,

lllLIS

in

lacMe Polio)'

_)l" liudgel dep_,id_:d

Ill a conversalion ',villi lhe aulh_r, lhe ellllllelll (levell)l)lllell ! ei'orlonliSl, lh'ute .lolH_slon, o_ce des('ril_z,d lhe lilSk uf ecoJ_i_isls In _enior l_silions in goverxlment is, al heir, IO "allt'_l lhe devehq_n_el)l II_[_.I[i_.U._" ()I ll_eir l_rl_til_als to change and modi£y lheir lhlnklnl, o( h()_v lhe world w()rks, or how developnlenl aCtllally evolves. II is II1_ itlle1{,sii_11l qlleslioll (_[ wllelller or I1{_! llle [llldersecrelaries Itl'e stlpp_ised I¢) pr_vitle, _r _it It, ilSl, _t_iich the l_c)siliotls o| their [iecrelill'les, ()r simply actepl _|llil deiend whal lheir Se('r(:laries stale. 52

_3 The tgricullural Isslslance

Agrlcullural l'oilcy :ind Slralegy Team was a gr'oup of economists eco;iomisls based ill !he lip l_s ll:in_s, wl10 had volunleered Io the l)ep,'Ir.tmen! (_I Agrh'ultt!re ar¢_uiid llile lime oI llie re.volul[o!_, 'rl_ey produc'_d lhe "gree_ Iv_)k" whlch was adopted as lhe policy "blbie" of the DA,

138

and their 198_3 Inl_lal

principally

the

on

International servicing

Finance of tile

as

analysis

was performed

The

I)I!R

illl¢|

by

Bank

- llllei'ilaliOll;ll,

l)cptll),

largely

dominated

to the

requirements

WB.

The

economic

was

organized

various The

The

54

as

Department

staff

of

Finance's

officers

dedicated

Analysis

was.l,erformed

by the

financing

arrangements

I)OF also depended

has

the

largest,

under

the

l)epalr'lzlletli

iii1¢1

Govel'ilOlS

h)lillliitg

to

the

assigned

- meaning

that

;t L_reat deal on the Central

of tile

nature

- also

concerns

countrb"s

nlade

and

funded

research

of I!collo/rllic

Ittlf, wtltttait,I),, and

of the data

best

t'ompilalion |ln;tslcln

handled

moslly

g avr,tngements

with

l)liR - relatiug

Ihe,ilCCesS

of

and

wary

analysts

tl_e

- Domestic, to one

of tile

of data,

by the

in

i/tiLl repoltitlg

Ihe ilt;tivllic.,i

the CI| vet-), sensitive

constrained

staff

Research

ab(*tlI 25() /'c.,,oal'chct's,

of lilt: ('il.

by the gathering

accounts

anti security

the

ad l_oc.

- organized

of the

the

officers.

staff.

Central

government

tile

ODA sources.

demanded

research

of

Group

various

officers

Bank's

skills

DI2R are

ill response the

INIF anti

to banking

and

of confidentiality

froni

outside

the CB

to the data. $5

.C..c)nsul_k_l].l_. various

economic

arrangements,

n_inistrlos. $onlt2tlilleS

could

continued

The _veti

The allalytJc:d

government. Consultants

Consultants

wt:re

t'onstlllitnls

without

input

not streak with

to provide

the

express

policy

mostly desires Ilowever

of cotlStlltants,

Ihe same authority

1o the

advice

financed of

under the

ODA

Philippine

was Of limited

its line oflicers,

the

use.

and yet line

•_'! Ih11"tit'ulavl), on the lntllvhltt;ll .skills cff tlntlorst,crt, lary Itonjanlit1 who hoen drafted from the IIPNli D)' Atlttitl(J's lit'st St.'crete1"), of tile Budget Ronlulo.

l)lclktto, Alberto

SS The security concerns of tile C!! SOIllt:llllleS resulted in the situation where analysts In the Philippines had to gt) 1o IMF ()l- WR s_tlrt't,s to ol'tlain Philippine tiara.

'_,Vhilo

the

CI|

;allowed

the

IMF

:lnt.I

Wll

_lccess

to d_llZl

ii5 a COllSeQtlellCe of ilrlill3'Sls, Inilll)'

country's need for financht||. Its own rules I_re;,c, nted naliemal wheal were sympathetic to tile I_hilll_plnes ' weirart:, Item access 139

to tile data.

tile of

officers

often did not have the time

illi)lll

()1" ¢'()IISIlIIillII.%

iisAil._iilll@lll$ cOIzt_xt were

eltel|

sllspicl()l|s

wilJl()tnl

y

Polb'y

(If

hilthly-l_aid

qxpatri;lll,.%

(I-cltllld(,d

illS,)

llil%'lil

lmpllCtLtiolIS

(|1" I1¢11)

setisiLLv_ or crudal

Prcs_Ec

(_.(HISIIIIalII_

, ()i'l@ll

alld

n(jr opp_rlullily

as economic

._lily('(l

lht'

|c_l

()l)i)()lltlllil}

IH'()hl¢'ll_s.

'

Ih¢,ir

(,xI(.'I'II_ll

,i

absorb

anti

llmltet| I,)

I-Illilll)',

;llzd

1|1

to fully

tilltl'

l.lly

ill

thL'll' the

rollstzltallls

rne_s¢:lWr_

Illl_,ll¢'lt'tll','

()11

the

tll|del'$la/|d

(IlIA-/lit|deal

_,.t,ry

utilize

ofte'lz

dcYlllt'slJ("

evoked al|illrS

;IS

p(dl('y.

G[oIff_L_3!I_IAh 'g_J'olic.._'j!litk.i.J=g, r!_)(.:¢_

Iti._ul_ltiot! may be ¢Icflizt, d as:

"...

Ihc, _';II_IIDIIll)"

I)i'¢_lircs (tlzus

holll

heing

;z/)le

Insulation

technocrats

with

very

well

Law.

From late

judiciary

afford

enough

endangered. "consulted"

was

effectively

newspapers

to

Marc.oS.

powers

President

and

1986,

afler

:1 tlt_W C()_Stlll_li()t_

only

the

apart

front

pl'i()r

or two

the

the legislature

was

The

cases

accorded

his

xlilliOll

to

judiciary,

the

] -I0

lie under

IMII),

- was organiz_zd

in

all

aborted

B_zMsan basically

served

while

Court's

lwpress

blarlial the

through

Marcos

seen

operational, interests

major

the

could

and

closing

and

tile

tile

of most B_lletit]

was

were

decisions

alII|OLIXlC(_IIIeZII, Furthermore,

[.ilw had (the

the

the

chosen

was inoperative

r;lilro_lded

wl_ere th;tt

s.h_ce Martial one

l_f

decision-n_aklng,

]z_ put

referendum,

thotl|lhl

Presld_znt

muzzled,

/)lVor...

Illjliii1111111

- the ll;irglsgln_ P;i,]ff);ins;i

artier1. on

for

when

a parliament

of executive

blarcos

flexibility

to early

It is commonly wllh

...

, I O¢,)L)

through

work

i!

will)

,,.

Wldle

stamp

i',Jr=, tO _h'lh't'l

I0 ;111('/"P(_lirit'._ i_l Illoir

Jllll)lelll('l]t

convention and a hurried

as a rubber cowed

1972

1980's

constllutional

..,

to do tit is, particuhzrly

inutile.

the early

of

broad

/_l'OllP$

Io)...

((:iilllll()_

lll(¢3r['el'(?llCC,"

The

jlll{'l'{_._(

,Jl the' II'ltlll,j_'l.lli_"

not were press

of the Today)

,.

which

were

sympatheljc

ullsupporllve ....

with

when

the

Ministers sharp

by

Marcos

ruled

nullifying

et_al)led

Ille

unprecedenled

only

abilities

acct_untal)le

and

skills,

had

participatory

inside

almost

I_r'esldenl

While

the

Impossible.

to

already

Philippine

participated

Ihe ('olisclc|its

ensured

afford

Ihe

lllfluen¢t2

extreme

in

Aquint)

tlecislt)n

dectsi_m

Also,

networks

check-and-

alld

his MInisters

_-ears of Marlia| support,

wht),

due

the

very

Law

l_larcos'

I_) his ¢)wn innalely specific

wlt|l policy

l!ach

of

details

officials

for

ill

It's

of

fealure

of

and

"l'ilis has

dislribution Interest

and

in the executive

participation

other served

of wealth groupings

her

illillosphere

Jill

and

and inflt_ence-pedclllng.

resources

gover,mnce.

malor

full

in

democratic

speedy decisitm-making

conneclions, and

many

laudable

of lobbying

in the the

and

ttJ ttntlt, rl_tke work was

lhe

flowering

disparities

society,

pf_pular

himself,

of

lie

in the early

relatively

to) Marcf)s

often

the groups already endos_d

the

particuhlr|)'

basis, it mad_ Independent,

transparency

boiler

radh)

decisions.

lransp;lrency.

branch

and

mec]lanisms

c)[" his government,

elljoyetl

_.(IuJlL_.&___P.._.'I!L!C_i_..

of full

Ih_ television

dt:;llot'ralic

illsuhllit_li

[)]st)

:lnd Dolilical

g_.)l,,el'lll'llelll

the

lalilude,

g()verllrl101ll

were

economic

FInal])',

of M:lrcoS Were "nati_malitod".

'l'llerefore,

balance,

Io the regime.

Thus

IogisOcs only

and

could

to worsen

influence

is l)rlefl),

in

discussed

below.

[.:lbor°s Metro-Manila

lnflttence.

well-organized

the

ct)ncentration

principal

reast)n

in tile

Philippines.

Luzon,

with

pro_duced

on

Nalional

Capital

coi_celllralioll

is

area

The

Region,

(l,amberte,

55%

The

produced

Sou;hern 1990).

fact

of Industry why

tha! in

anti

labor fully

the Central

Suclt coIwentralioli

141

;It,d commerce

l_as long

been

649t, of the country's three

cenlral

I.tlzoll

regions emphasizes

has facilitated:

in the rula|ively GDP is of

the this

(a)

the illtroduction

(b)

the joint

The veteran

formulallon

lqarcos

l.abor

and

Influem'e

and

Joint

addition,

of unionism

lllas

between of tile

b), Ilovernment

toward

govermnent

nlanaged

to the

b.

exlelll

l.ab_)r and

F.nlployment/r)Ol,l_),

lhe nalion_l,

c.

the National,

While

such

This

underemployment,

their

horizons

(i) (11)

a coherent tile clout

and

labor

leadership contaila

atltl

and

trade

have

the

lobbying t"

of dialogue

government. unions

been

of

the

mecha_dsnts

labor

theft these

(:t)()rdinath_g

and

very

In

l_ave

been

cooperative

and

Regl_)n:il

arttl ltwal

havt:

:llltl

trade

been

their

wish lists,

long-term to hlfluence

all_iillt'tl,

tW()ll()lllJt"

particularly

Committees

In the

I;irgt,

Thus Ihe), have

vision

anti

larl;or

tlilli()n_ll

,!

1.-12

ht_wever, ly

iSstle._.

le,i

I'Pt,elt

and

Ille a_gendas Jllniled

()f

years,

been

of

I_()_lrtls (I)O1.[:.).

t._IIVII-()IIIIIC'III

last

(Der_artment

l al)or-Management

W_ge-Setling

have

uiiIt'Jlis

the

hwltJdes:

h)f'_d Triparlite

Congresses,

Is I_ee_ttlso

and

and

regional

atlvant'es

wt)rker

and

issues.

tile

sevurill

fcwa f(w dialogue

Advisory

_,V_ll_e-._t_.|lill|10

through

industry,

naticmal

the l.:dmr

labor째

relevant

initiatives.

Government

various

and

to neutralize

private

major

The govermueilt-orgatdzetl a.

on,

l;ib_lr. (')pie _rganized

problem-solving

supported

action

i'Jarticulat'ly

Ople,

of organlzetl

two

tile work0rs,

of. anti united

g(wernment,

Minister

at least

among

ilJgh

has

unable

I()

of

the

short-term

I,illelll|_lOylllell!

severely to develop:

limited

Peasltnt

and

Farmer

population

the l'arming

force,

influence

their

mlniscule,

of

farmers

themselves, is their

rel;itlvely

to urhan

ilild

are ever

()rllillllzed

grealer

lhe periled

Atlulllo doublful

llOl'lild

di.'ilogiie

Ihe

TIInI

litisinessnlen

regard

ailtl

issues of the

are

more

poverly

as

advanced

sector's

lack

made

worse

when

compared

not considered

l)el_lrtntents

!()eilgeiid(;l

Ill i,ll

if hick).,

illld

1902

by

p(lssll_lo

Io

is lnslruclive.

Iwtl!

(:xt'epll(ui

(Jr was it ever

Ihe

easier,

(if

fill-

i-lilll-,%(ﾂｰ

of Ihe

flil-nlal

had t,a._), ilvle5._ to the

bettveeli

I_ala('e iil._() in

and

('lliiililelfl illil)iil

(if four

hilsillt_$snlell

IIi1._ i%'il_i lltil

groups

of

The groups

ill(,l_lllilll

I_l;igsil),sii),

flit" pe_lsant

(DA)

t alt'ictillure

for liriilllllielll i-i'(luell

alacrity

the President

gel ttl see the Iq'esidl_lll

llitllill$ _ll

t'ontact

Of lice'of

till

II w:15 ('llllllliOll

,i ll.il'

with

o1"Agriculture more

Ilie

Ilirllullh

wtiultl

I_ilSilleSf

wllhlu

beconle,

With

f_irming

numbers,

I_l tli.%ctIss isstit_s ilffet'iin

no(,ll

Ihe

.%ill.t liol'

Wilh

Is, however,

farmer

('l)lllril5l,

if it ilas

President.

spruild-oul

1086 Ihrough

illld

lif

Ill

lqesidenc)'.

disproporlionalely

less as concerns

for lhe

of deprivalio_]

I_lesitlent

In shilril

rt'l_resenhqllvef llel

lind

re_son

' il._.%lil'klliolis

"]'he), w(liiltl

h'ller.

iinll

oF the work

issues has boon characterized

illlellll)liilli

l)eilS_ililft

I_rOlot'ol and allpolllllllf_nls,

Iq't;sllli,lil

tltat

Ill

to see the

reforlil.

Ill sI.K weeks

has been

COIIIIIIUlIII.V,

The Oﾃ様_erien('es

and

over

request

ill|rilriilll

levels

lteforln,(I)All) l,_rillel-S'

Ihe

of farmer

at least half

of the

workers.

raised.

the lihllii_l)lnes

illttl

policymaking

unorganized,

it is not surI'_rlsing

Allrilrlall

would

and

in terms of proportion

comprising

The principal

large,

muc]i

Industrhtl

Thus if these

on policy

b), a few in lhe policymaklng

Inl'luence

their

F.ven though

SeClor is donlin_Int,

In fact, the treatment

advocacy by the

h_l']lJence.

i_ilh

IIit_

ilill

Ihi_

liertod,

it

is

Ill see tile the

I%lilrl'()l

ntit stVllU islilll.

to i'iiriners

,qnd consullliltoll

ilii(I

Sllilt-liiJt'5,

illlri('llllilrlll ll_irli(.ullirl),:

i-13

lal)tir,

Ihe |lovelnilienl

also set up

a.

tileNational Peasant Council (liA),

h,

llieNational Farnlers'Advl._<,ryItoard,

(,

ihe l)easanlForuIII,

d.

the Farmers'

alld

Advisory

Council

(Nalhi,lal

Fo<>d At, th(_rity).

_I]_I_ IU___[_._I!blI_.._.I,'_B__I.I!!I.o-X!J,_!!], A st,Iklngfealvre of llleAqulno years,

and

undoubtedly

organlzalions existent, civil

within

servants

their

were

among

Tile

most

health

leave",

and

the

demands

fome

and

hunger

Ranlu.,i

period,

/_lost

(ff these

(-lobs, In Ihe

allowed

collective

in public

enlerp,'lses.

effective

ass째ciali째ns" strike,

uncertainty

encot, raged

tilt,

rise

"/'hose

organizations

as skillful

and

ignited

demoralization

organizational

were

Striking

sector

unions

utilizaUon

enshrined

art_ the

when

of media

also

leachers'

the

"mass

exposure,

public

bargaining,

sector anti

across

govermnenl.

of "democratic ttnionism,

strikes.

splice."

specifically

Thus

Ihe

b),

public

Tile

the

1986-87

This

was

1987

allowing sector

".,,

ill

tile

Nilljiiltlti

stopt)lng

Ihe

NAPOCOll

President)

Power

piirchase

_lf

JllXill')'

Irrigation

lie

corrui_liiln

Adnlinlstraiion

oril:lnizllllonl

docilrllenis

ill;it.,

execillives,

These

i'iil'$

... _lckn(Iwletlilt'tl

outc[ T in tile t|eci._itln

l_ven Ihottgil

(]()lj}iil'lttJotl

negotiation,

unions

have

and

the aiid

lied

the s illltl

1,1-t

phii'e..,

Niiti(inal

I'i'he

I(I lie sellsilive ill

the

IloitMlltl

dOCllnlenled rc'lllacenietil protests

lit

illallligeitletll.

the lieed

takeil

ttnciirllied

expiisitrt,

I1)'

sut'cectlcd

It+ lltiw til tile orgaillzlitiiin's had

to)..,

lilt)'

have

to

pliite_t. Nailllnal Atithorii),,

questionable (if

also

constitution

successes:

the

non-

was

innovated

engendered

fervor

by the new ;Itnlosllhere

lliihllc

employee

I.aw period,

barpaizling.

public

of

orpaniz.',tions

_lill'COs, Martial

of the

as well

Is lhe

and positions.

reorganization

collective

social

unions

vocal

of

bureaucracy.

not

workers'

The

also

tile

or wore merely

disallowed

and

thai

lheh"

chief

occurred

not

scored

without

considerable

(Carino,

risk

of

_lr_(,l s_tnctions.,."

harassment

1990),

•l_'/)e M].!L_I_y _!ld the New P._.J_-_'_A[J!LZ. milititry

rebels,

actiotls

ag:titlst

Armed

Forces

grown

in

the

Movement

key

I:.I)SA revohttlon, of Aqulllo

was asked

alld

of Juan

Army,

lerm.

of young

Ponce

Enrile. as

aJid

/_htrcos

Ihe C_tl)iilel,

Reform

the

that

had

officers Enriie

Defense

anti

destabilizing

The

was

one

of

Secretary.

support

al_l'_Oil_tetl ])t, ft.,llse l_llllister, to leltve

rigl_t-wing

mounted

gruul_

pt_sititms

It) reputli_tte

was prt)ml'_lly

extreme

of Aquillo's

it stltltll

wing

Ramos

Peoples'

most

in vitrious

General and

New

tllrottgll

tile

serving

with

leftist

(i_,AI_|) was

under

men,

forces

critical

as tile

govenment

lnrluence

Marcos' Joined

as well

The

tie

Aquino

at the

lie soon

l)ecame

he got

himself

whereul)tm

¢

elected

as opposition

providing

them

attempted

Yet

Filipino

stlprelllaCy

New

I_itl-t), of the National

_)roatl,

tile

fosterittg

Peoples'

peasantry,

)pportunity

of

large

illld

Army

and

Front. thus

agrarian

for peace Unfortunately,

all

reform.

her

ceasefire

election,

intprlsoned

which

culnlinated collapsed

I-IS

itttd

_trm or the

IiIore

most

has Their

effective tlxem civilian

t't)nsistent

by IMavcos.

Commtmist

illllol'J'Jhous,

i'resiclent illltl

a year

political

has been

the

ativocates

t)f

Aquino

in a censefire within

all

valued

of tile CPI'-NP/_-NI)F

I_eett ($11e()f the

UPtm

negotiations

base

l_l_l

chllllge.

militar)' btll

the

h_tve trot endeared

{)f

IHOiltler

for ),ears,

soldiers.

Military

iIleans

iliuCh

that

ll_ts con_islently

is SUl)l_tlsetll ), tile

have

image

efficient

ilClli-viOleltt

"ILAI_I lIoys"

professional

- which

Ihnt h.'ttl been

the

The

of t'cJtti} attempts

The Iratlili(mal they

tile

"refornl-lllinded"

IqllilPl'_inles , alttI t)f tile

Denlocratic

liberal

ill

nurtured

privilt.,gcs.

of _t sitlag

illJlitary,

alost of tile NIaF leaders

lgSG.

of

mounting

Ihe

and

is that

population

ovel"

The

l'.'nrile hall

ftmdlng

enlphaslzed

G_vernment.

rural

special

to build

rhetoric

to the

Senator.

released

SO created signed amid

tile

in late mutual

.

accusallons

of violations,

and the hc)slililies

between

tile Governmeltt

and tile NPA

resumed,

"rile right

violent

.qclions or al least lhl't'ilt

have continuously

and rural threats

welfare

have shaped

only

r()l _

which

the respollses

solulions

soldiers

were

Sel'iOtl_

Wol'k

Marled

many

tire government

close t_) like t()p of

than sustainable beltefJts

pressured

Its :lgenda.

for mililary

unrest

i'alse{I

:lll_,r

sc_[;;i

i)11 a|_l;lllilll

demollslratio|ls

by NI)F

and

owning

In Cc;ngress from

groups

aml rural Ih{:

left and

c'Olll_

palliatives

pclverly. ;tllt,

t- Ihe

sylnpallllzers

tile ikattlre (If tile

It}ward

The

I_le_kdhlla

IlkliSS_.k('l-e,

at least

the COml_rehensive

and

{]Over|illke|ll

A series

also

rather

The salaries

lWlpl5.

partlcipaled.

watering

tile exlreme

to) tit least keep the military

nl_re

it,1(_1'111 i|[It,

gr()ul,S

from

Llnfortunately,

of g_vernmenl

Nl)F-affillaled

majority

of violence

of

kept

ilk

public Ihe lalkd-

Agrarian

Reform

l,aw Io inutility.

_li_ l_fJ._=.C__llilljl_llLc2Ii", i lilll

C()lilllllllee$

during

like Aquino

Decrees, Orders. Ihese

acting include, sector. Tllese councils,

¢'realell

I.etters Such

period

in the

has

Ihe

absence to be

Most'are

set

of Instructic_n,

have

or are

i'¢)ll.'_llllllliC_ll

are

consultation

issuali(-es

bodies

rill"

The slrl|c'lures

fi)l'ce

provided

meet

are quite

illlo

been

cJl" I:lw.

o£ a legislature. chaired

;111¢1 ¢'LIL)l'tliul,llit)ll

legal

lixecutivt:. also

or

General, enshrined

shwe

Ihese

by

' and

parlJcularly

lnlluentJal.

146

such

as

Administrative in tile were

All Ihe bodies

co-chaired,

_f all the bodies

¢'l(;,llc.°Ll

ilkSlrume|lls

with al least a mudicunk

regularly

aml ()perathlns

1987

e_lacted

are

o£ operating

wilh regard

alld

Presidential and

Special

Constitution. |_y

mandated

representatives

heh.)r_

of staff

tile

All

Pr_Jde_zl

to at the and

least

private budgets.

to the longest-running

In

fact, in recent

"consultation" groups

take

place

- |_:lrticulally

I,ocal

there

t'OiZt|ut'tetl,

between

Code

have

evolved

it has become

btlsli_ss,

(;overnment

developments

years

:1 sellse sllt)ultl

a,id

suth

facilitated

suc'h

()f

the

most-affected

alitl

business'

thcts(,

to ensure

Tile All

itlfluent'e

lailetl,

('()ilstlllt'tl

I))'

on

()1 sveve

that

interest

pt_lkies.

('()llstlllilti()n$.

(-imsultillltJns

I'_()_lll()ns

fashionable

ilClivities

m,-lntlatt's

more

Ihat

tile

government

gc)verltltiotZl

illSO

all the

almosl

recent

of

these

policy,

since

ii(_t seriously

|i()Vel'lllltelll

iI()t

1,',,,II()ll)'

adopIodl hi gelleral,

tile

_.o,_jectlves of these Iov ()ill), il set'lion as

l"ol'a

for

afford

and the

a pragmntlc

ttt_2etings

arid

dialogues

coinnlon

understnnding

that brief direct,

such

dialogue

period effective

before

attend

and

toward

only

frustration

sets

st, rved utilize

travel,

i)e restllved

alter

while

their

|_()Vel-ltltlelll.

meetings,

anti

tile

i_Url_OSeS

these SIich

bodies ;.I recot'd

ct)nsensus-building, a series

nledium-to-large

of exhausting

work

lit and

of extracting

1.17

hits had

a process.

tu be luztrt_ed.

"l'llus it has

the

fatnler

tile},

take

governntent

to such

sector

"rite

The hest that c_tn be expected

for action, for

business

contl'ii)ttte

the dialogues

tile i_r()bletus.

it consensus

structures

with

Ittu.| sul_stanti:llly

do Ilt)l solve

these

that

investigation.

t't)rpt)rate

nttitude

mechanism

t)l|ly

l)nt'kgri)tttld

to consistently

Furtlterntore,

for

Iiit]icales

(()tlsislentl)'

t'l)lJltl

:tllt_l (()lltal-t

¢ottltl

private,

tle('_ltie

Wt,lt, ];itltl_lbh,.

attcl resources

meetings only

on

Issues

pilSl

wiljt'h

('()llllllUliit)'

illld IolL)byini|.

Clearly

strtl('ltllt,s

In[hlence

|t)gistics

discussions,

could

tile

COlllJntllllg

demanded research

allah)gill: ¢)1

of tile

eXpel'Jell('e

lind

become

labor

to Ille streets action

oll their

is

a cycle

groups as a agendas.

for more

a

C

T_e

While financial

tile

and

international since

the

crisis

almost

1970s.

'rhe

continuously

since°

the

European

Aqulno

Involving

The

policy ils

1961.

first

The

iil.ljtlSllllt_lll

z't)untry

2.1 from reform

alst_

had

(1992)

significant

l_as been

Ihe

Bank

the

the active

were

19lh

to the

development

.lapa,L

lists

in a BOP

on its

World

official

which

1960s,

balance-of-payments

illcltJcli_ig

COml)OJlenis

early

negotiations O| °

Surilmo

international

became

counto'

II)illl

i_lslitulions0

tile Ihe

only

has Just c_mlplvted

I_ilaleral

policy

since

iniliaied

The

Table

with

active

IJ.S, and financing

during

the

period.

Particularly have

with

Conlmunily.

arrangements

and

i,_ 1981.

transacllons

econtnllic

the II_IF in

SlI'UClUI:II

l)eguzl

t'elationships t'onlilltJIlity

Philippines

with

first

active

Phlllpldne

arra,lgement

The

had

assistance

oil

was

asslslitnce

has

influence

-_zrrangement. Philippines

Philippines development

late

" stabilizalion

n £cjL!jLlh ' e _!p.lg ILI.iI!J._I_IL[:.h!a L_£JaI C_JlUlliLUJlV

since

had a dominant specific

content

tile

late

innuence of tile

1970s in the

policy

documentetl

i_rogl'anl (If condllh)nallth,s

orth(}dox

the

lnlernatlon:ll reform

reform

financial

i)rogram

progranls

Of the largely

I(_ lit: al_Piol_riate

Ill,)ill:lit

lns|itutlons Philippines. reflect

the

by tile financiers.

Amonl.',tileexl'Phlnatlons fi)rthe exlunlo1" lilt: IilllllellC:e of tilefinancing community

oil I]_e reform

I. quite

strollg

which

inadequately

prepared

']'lie composhion

of Ihe

Ill rnacroecononllc._

programs

are:

_lillqJLl'..prcp.,l!'_dl!e_,

seriously

negotiation,

pl'ol_raill

saw II_e l'hiltpl_lne

f()r h_an pr()gram I_hilil)pine

team

design,

also) oflen

iltlO s|rlll'|llrill ;l(ljtlSllllelll,whell

are largely ecot_omh- In nature,

1-18

The

government

(fitch

preparation lacked tile

and

economists adjustment

time al_d effort devoled

to

preparation on the Phlllpplne side were also lacking. The consulted with economists

Oil

sp/dcific

familiar

even employed,

with

the

national

Philippines.

rarely

positions,either nationally or

llt._gt)lialing

internationally. In contrast, tile internationaldonors with, and

government

almost always consulted

econonnists or internatic)rLal economists

56

Anotller feature 01" tileproject l_reparaliollprocess is the fact that the project preparation and negotiation teams of tilel'[nancillg agencies often dealt directlywitil{llevarious officersand officesoi"the government, with little ifany,

coordination from

the

Phlllpplnes' Investment

programn'flng

or

finance

authorities. "l'iils often led to dil'['erin9, or worse, C._J.l._k'.l_!R pusitions between the oi_eJ'allnil the

final

stages

bargaining allowed

f[llanfe of

the

loan

Philippines'

an

in

the

negotiation

sessions

tile

balance

of paysnents

line

agencies

projects, cotlld

not

of the

treasury

process

['urlher

emerged

coxlsitlerably Philippine

It) play

plaxming,

also

the

and

weakening

panel.

This

operating

|lie

a

/lie

also

agencies

finance

achieving

during

often

and

ministries

the

against

weakening

of

the

stance.

finance

looked

lnconsistex_cies

theretly

opportunity

the

negotiating

Finally,

o_herwlse

tlegoilatloxt,

programming, and

Thuse

:rod strength

financiers

other-

government

niillislries.

cohesiveness

Investment each

and

wiili

to

and

operating

differing

the

objectives.

forulgol

alld

loans

or at worst be generated

ministries

at

The

exchange hell

often

appeared

finaqt'e

t!tinsiralllt

;is mecllilllisms

as

mechanisms

via

Ihe

usual

to fiscal

acquire

at

ministry Ill

Si.lliS[)',

to

the

loan

often

had

while

tile

finance

desired

resources

which

ilppropriaiit)ns

and

public

56 A World Ilank OMct..'r who was invtHvcd in several I'hilllH_hie loan projects claimed tile COlltril$l ill the state ()[ tile prellaretliless llt]tween the Pililipl]ine governmellt and tliose of ._Olllil Korea anti "l'aiwan, sliyiilg tllat ill tile latter countries, all tile World I|allk ilatl to (1(} Ill lheh" Inlssionls wt)ul(l lie I() read il[itl react to tile program and prtDje('l I+t,asihilll), studies Ilia[ had alrea(I},' heel Preliared by tile Goiernnlenl lil_[lllellantl. Ill tile Pliiltlil)ines , tile liilssi/)ll o|len had to prepare the studies Ihenlselvesl 1,49

procllrell1@lil

project,

imported

higltly line

l:Iroc@ss

paid

projects

and

Ihe i_ret-etlttisJtes Institutions. very

little

fr¢!nl

the

Bank

negotiation

in

quotes

Vlrata

regarding

tile then

at't'eSs

dttrlng financing

which

had

begun

1983.

The

goverltnlellt

terms

fonvarded

l)rhne

Minister

substantial

flnatlce

ambitious

gaps anti the

(Fabella,

1989)

they

disregard

later

could

of policy

reforms

and

were

and

this

again

been

b)'

in

crisis

vulnerable tile

a

virtually

from

t() easy

the

early

capitulation

illulttlillerill

and

which

lit that

Minister

Loan

a tranche

Ii;lcl to accept, Bank

had

Adjustment

for

to

financial

in 198:1, tile country

Structural

World

fact

during

ill

the

between

tile

(Mr)ales.

1989).

tltat

and

was

without time.

any

Fabella

of Finance

Cesar

1970s

pledges If

and

the

by

tile

made the

Philippine

foreign

resources

spirit

militate

against

Illey

then tile

late

clelivers in

that

in in_pleinentali_m,

150

the

no choice."

helieved

ent|nlei'ated

of

team.

concurrent

actions

thus

the

contributed

thus

el}served

in

of

Overall,

1979,

"....SAI. its a |itttt:et that

part

per(()rmance

exchange

l'avlicuhtrly

its actuill

projects

reforms..."

In

and

of the loan,.

the

by the

"We had

1980s,

perceived

for

equipment, on the

Iheir

of the crisis

except

fOl'eigll-assisted

for the repayment

I't'tltlil'otl

tile depths

lqe{.Iges =vs./lltgllliollli,

negotiators

set

Ilnltnc'ittg

3.

governnlent

foreign

a

office

l'hllll_pines

the g(_vt, t nmont t¢1

that decision:

Phillpph_e

thai

nts.

The

Oli

viewpoints

for tile Philil_Pine

and/or

rendered

for

World

(1989)

tile

pt_stttre

Pavtlculat'ly recourse

fact

arrangottic,

of payments

for

effective protest,

early

l'inancing

This fiwt alone

these

I))" lit{'

_L, vvht_

expenses,

tied to a respcmsil)ility

bargaining

balance

f()l"

Finally,

Barg&[LL[ll.g.._.l.Lr__lgl)l_.

corltinttotls

under

]1{)li(Witlla

ronov;lllon

encouraged

in program

2.

as

consullanls.

were

to a weakened

sttt'h

office

were not directly

particularly

1970s.

vehicles,

staff

nlhllstries

items

-

loan

could

they

make

would

pledges

readily

documeiltation.

to tile which

agree

to

Tllus

a

comparison

between

negotiators

will show

and

the position

A related discovered exchange

that

flank

Is the

the

Central

('ollllllullll)',

representative

that

.lalme

l aya. the

_tnd als_ In Manila,

c)f I:lnauwe,

and

of

Tl_e controversy

offh'es

l')epartntent

credibiilt)'

of

tile

positions

between

the

followed This

of

pledges

the

made

that

tantJerlles

It should

also be noled

it was

overstated

its

foreign

partly

Ihe

loan

resignation

explain

of then

not

In the

Jl_ll: iII1¢1 Ihe

only

ailtl

and

tlt_bt

staffs

the

lnternali0nal WII nt_w

have

(_entnaJ l_atlk templeĂ—,

ix'Jl: cd[Ic(.rs

Ihe

1983

G(_vernment

lee-areal at the

the (:II allt|

had

In

led to tile

ntay

of ,,vii)' I_tll

analysis

negotiators.

Philippines

I'hilll_l_lne

b_lh

and

the

hlstltutions.

of tile

credibility

and

correspondence

Bank

Governor

financi_ll

agreements

closer

factor

poor

tl_e data

a much

financing

relatively

the

doctlmented

of tile

reserves.

Central

the

wlllch

negotiattt)ns

where provide are

also

located.

Access. finance

and

officials

of the

WB, the

13uropean

Ministers tire

aid

and

community

Philippine

•

|

i

tile

very

The

Manila

LJSAID and

Secretaries.

high

Some

of the international levels

of access

x-epresentalives

other

donors

examples

of

to

of the

the IMF,

regularly

called

on

the access

features

of

are:

a regula.r

Asia.

the representatives

accorded

government.

Community,

Department

relationship

were

that

lie always

i

visitor met

with

to Manila

was

the President;

the WB's Vice-President

for

57

.

57 The WB VP was Gautam Kaji. arrangements of the Finance Secretary he see tile President Is not known. 151

Whether it was by his wishes, or b)' and/ or the Central Bank Governor tlaar

* in

it was a lnallur the

Philippines

with

any

Cabinet

ill

meetings

the

tile

Director

met

also

wilh

met

illltl

of Ihe (il)v(:rlllli+nl

the

ilel'lshlnl

Ill

Ihe

lilt,,

(;ovt, rilnii,nl,

of iltIWL, r Ihal

tloli(ll'-_

would such

pre-processed

iigl'eulllenis

with

the

Sometimes

The

t;Xl+Ut'led

IISAID

Ilit_

Iht.,lll.

_'t,lill'lilli,

t;tl

11 wils

iils(I

hill li+itl

had

officers.

wilh

hlllhl)'

rank

or

the Mission

Ih'esidunl;

tlilt,_l

Ill lilt,t,I

of

and

the

Cabinet

cancelled

lower

staff

Secruiar),.

wilh

Ihe

tliilli

Furtherniorc,

olher

Cahhlet

inet

lower

often

of

Mission

officially

l'iiilit

were

tlSAII)

and

tJSAID

.'it which

slead.

finalit'it;rs

a coilSelltlelll'e

(if

officer

decisions

reguhlrly

(iflit'ers

lOllSe

after

Ihe

l)(llllll'S

an

the

never

12venls

present

l)ircclor's

held

+

was

be

Undersecretaries

staff

Directur

olher

- or

positions,

Department LISAID

USAII.)

only

discussions,

not

hi

illflout"

aild

could

Mission

were

practice

Missiogl

Meetings

by

and

(lllvei'llilleilt

concerned

attend

tile

Pliilipphle

re-scheduled

all

that

Secretary.

Membc.r

of policy

ii('lliiilu+l

ill

V_ly

+t_llior

"1"_)._Oiill2 i2._li.'ill hlt'lis Ill

Illicit

lif

p,ii°l

Illi:i

filliilicliit title

iI+iilhilJs

Itl

Ihu

wllh

Ihe

Governnientl

•

as a regular

wliich

nici

w(luid wllh

•

lie

(ll)vi,

ahcltll

Calllnul

tile

elicit

of

Iriivt,

the

ll¢,ll

$1a[r, {I[IL'II they

i

llenernlly

II_IF

Ihe

I_linillt.,l"

tile

so¢till

clr

Ilillik, hi

WIt, anil

tl with

it.,sltlenl

also

nlul

AI)It

Premideilt,

In tile

Siillle

Nlil)A

illitl

[lniilll'llill li[

i:llilinl.'#,

I)irt'i'lOl-tlelieral

I)('., ii¢l¢Jiiipiiiilt'll (it

Assillillll

Wil

ill

ll) ° Ihuil

,_ttl'rt, liil),

II_IF ltlliculs

I_?vul.

(if

iniO-

rllnk:

I('l)l'l's(:ntillivt,.s wilh

Ihe

sot-iall),, i'alen(lar.

Ilitf

%Vii_iliiiilil,lii

lower-level,

lovernrllenl

lived

<if AI)II

I(liill_

ill" Illitlei.%i!i'iillilr%,

SOlllelilne_i

,'lt'live

ht, h_w th+li

elf the

I'(Ir

lultl_llellollillt,

iigent, ies

Philil_Phle a very

niet

Finally.

fhlancu

Ihl.,

IOl|l_llll_r

lellllll"

all(I

It,.vuls

i)irct'lors

llt'lliJli;ili<Jli_i

(]t_lilriil

Thel'u level

Ihreu

I'llial

wIIh

rill)r

I)l_p;liliiiuiil

b,lliil._lers;

l)ur|ng

arralilelilellll

prilclice,

ill,ill

l_lanila;l The

t, xclusIve

152

(if senltlr foreigii

il_ilor

Ihe

donor

officers

ill

c(inliniinil),

_111(.]Oiploill.'iih-

resldeilllal

iiiiil Ihe has i'orpl

neighborhoods

-

as

tile

government

businessmen. same

Their

social

donors

and

Whether Government not

clear

used,

interllatlo_lal whether by

institutions

above

with

the

the

as a result Cl)Ullli'y'$

flnarlclllll

clearly

greatly

social

were

age,lcles

exlrelile

iiffeci#2d

Ihe

the

of

tile

relationships

fillancial

community

153

'l'he

Iiiit.lllitiils

iiiitl

Ihus

of

were

beneficial

Knowingly

goverllnlent of tile

of hospllality, Ille

Philippine

influence.

tile root

the

the

facilitates

ID, either

ill

of the

are debatable.

or formal,

and

part

¢onlact

governmel_t.

dei'll.,ndt.'ilt'e

.negollatlons.

also

the

It) atlvanlage.

tlilillll),,

prominellt

with

utilized

of Flliplnt_ culture of tell

wel'e

of the Government

whether

niost

facilitated

the international

contacts

tile

families

features

position

fhianclng

also

and

financing

contact,

whether

Sl)Otises This

the had

and

circles.

to the bargaining

skillfully

officials

('()ulilr),

I!1_ political

or and

It is not or

the

relationships or conditioned

Oil interllational ecolioniy,

of the

-

V_

Tile of

Outlook Policy

The

Aquino

foster

tile

recover),

results

of

A(luino

goverllllleltt's

recovery

these

and

for

I(efc)rm

and

erfl)rts

rec()rd

reform process

were

efh_xts

exerled

Iowartl

the g()al,

agreed

upon

the

overcome

the

various

influence

of

those

wlio

and was even

sufficient

to successfully the

precious

resources

were

eruption

of Mt. Pinatubo,

the domestic

arena,

policy

the

reform

governmelit

from

typhoons

and adverse

and

nine period,

and floods,

current

man-made

droughts,

international

conditions

tile

strategy

the

strong regime capacity

and

diverting

calamities

that

the eartlnquake,

extremist

to

Complicating

tasks

lncludh_g

(a)

lacked

process.

fundamental

the

sufficient

the

government

goals

were

and

(b}

manage

during

nine path

Influences;

and

and economy

et'(lltOll|[C

since:

Ililllgllt,

at an intensity

from

of natural

ItS

tremendous

was

the

series

(If

of line

tlnat

reversing

Its

review

and

(c}

the

Ill Ihls

to

aggregate

+nllhotJgln the ultllzlate

- nor

benefiting

Yet the

that

community

and

in its attempts

illlIllt*lll('lll_n|it)n

and

lead

distracting

held,

making

were

ec(m(mly.

exl)e(l_llh)lls.

n(_l clear

strengthened,

matters,

the country

was

policy

efforts

()l Ihe c[[¢)rt w_ts for

IIllll.'ll

competing

persisted,

befell

universally

of tlevelopnnent within

(if in_lst

we Is:ix,t, ft)ulztl

reform

patln

of ihe

ltlzti i)t-c_t't,_s.of the

inillallves,

Advnlnlsiralic)n

prc)digiotxs

gr(twth

sh()rl

lmplemcniatlon

I(am{)s

exented

accelerated filll

Successful

In line

admlnislralh)ll

of the

strategic

the

disturbances

- particularly

the in

the Gulf

Crisis. President Constabulary Defense tl_e

Chief

Secretary

bureaucracy,

economic

Fldel

policy

V. Rantos

Is the new

leader

,'u_d later Chief

of Staff

under

It is clear

and process

Aqulno. has

had

a unique

as it unfolded

154

under

of tixe Philippines. Marcos,

and as Chief

that he has lnad ample opportunity

in the Aqulno

to

closely

administration,

lie

served

as

of Staff and experience observe

In the

llas

he

lea,'ned

enough

excise

or

so liult

neutralize

Information

Aqulno,

his

the cotlstralnls

now

administration

under

at

and

provides

hand, tile

an

In

leatlershlp,

tile

It> t't'Ollotnlc

rt"forlnl

terms

major

of

fi,tdinl:s

outlook

on

tile

the

the

ca,t

successfully

All examlnatlou

initial

from ltamos

g_vernment

actions

government's

the

of

exl+erleztce

of the

under

Ramos

President

expected

record

of

Initialed

under

the

reform.

Policy Inltlatives,.Julv In general, Aqttino

1992 tile

government

however, there

are

policy

actions

the

Instances

Program.

EO 8.: 1992,

It was ahned

During

generally

anti-agriculture

overall

tariff

development

levels, and tile

These Items

occurred.

The

has

inlllal

been

Examples

the

record,

accelerated, of the

of

the

vehicle

of tile

ram-agriculture hand,

tariff

sectors wanted

Tile NI/DA, CB and

155

been

Initial

protect

a number

"I'RP, both about

tile

the

tile I)O1: were

drafted

program

of the

while

DA and

being

the

DTI

of the

I-O 8 would

lower

between tile

substantial.

continuation strongly

subject

of agricultural

of protection quite

by

Reform

still

the exacerbation While

remain

was EO 8

tile Tariff

administration,

tile levels

would to

lie 8 had

development

structure.

between

Orders

Uncler

inclttded

The DA was concerned

bias

F.xecutive

for a set of conlmoditles

of tl_e Aqulno

objectives

tile discrepancy

program.

to EO 470

cmnmodities under

first

he took office,

t:trlffs

few months

to tile

oilier

after

at substituting

to EO 8.

overall

on

Ramos. process

Ramos'

as a follow-on

tile last

Initially objected

D'H/BOI,

two weeks

and

sympathetic

agriculture

President

has

One of President

restrictions. products

DTI/BOI.

by

backtracklnl(

adminlstratio_l

fishery

conll|luetl

process

are:

to quantitative and

and deregulation

l,i some cases tile t'eform

where

in mid-July

Aquino

been

Willie

Backtracking: issued

lll_erillli, allon has

Is mixed.

tO I_l_llX!.t,__l_9.__

of pushing

The the

car

tile EO,

particularly passage

of EO 8 had

approval

and

negotiation, that

the

assent,

to be subject Tile

Ramos

Presidential of the

I!O g welcomed

negotiated

are

the new

Indications

commodities

1992 tllat

rapidly

on foreign

[orced

to surrender

January, malty

partly analysis,

timt

already

been

Secretary

second,

the

extracting Sintilarly,

the

IMF'/WBs

After

vehicles

lie

needed

¢o March

all but

the

tile

decision

final

signed

much

agreement the

DTI/BOI

would

199.].

look

continue

2% of their Io tile

CB Increased

calls the

agricultural

foreign

is being

Ilherallzatlcm

Mr.

tile

loud under in tile

successfully coma|edifies

written,

there

of agricultural

direction.

I_,'L_IKIIIgc._J',C_I[C._.,The Ill i')92,

Thus

lie

to the

before

participated

issue,

As this manuscript _ff l!(} 8 t(_ the

fie

to be liberalized

tile

_f lie 8 on the

the

Ramos

not having

to study

of the 1_O, and

on

office.

commodities

- la the pr()tectionist

i)()lh:y

passage

by President

Sebastian, time

tile al_l_llcabillty

Forelgl_

overtook

of Agriculture,

of the effectivity

exchange

tile

for HFF.

1-O 8, after

passenger

to pass

to Ills new job.

In response

current

I)e reduced.58

of tile agricultural

is to be modified

/_C£ 'lgCilllon:

tile

with

of mlc1-1992

decided

liO 8 had

a deferment

measure

that

restrictions.

l'resldent

Sebastilm

November

agreement materials

elections

of fie 8, felt

_mder

as "mollc_'oque"-tyl_e

of tile producers

drafting

Its

to QJ_s, and

subject

as a performance

financing

to quantitative

Sebastian,

objections

of

so long

of items

pledged

on packaging

governmenl,

Roberto

from

release

the tariffs

Office

been

the DA signalled

signalled

the

of tile reduction

in terms

i'rh)r

f:enlral It) 1992

exchange

of exporters, I_t(q+¢_lll(m

ihlnk

exp()rters

earnings and

()f foreign

finally

moved

bad

been

to the CB.

as recommended exchange

In by

earnings

58 It should tie noted that the inter-I_t, reauclatic negollaliol|S were proceeding ahmg parallel tracks. The Iil sl xwls ullder Ihe Tariff Itehlled bfatlers Conlnllttee of tile NI!I)A, alltl Ihe set'c_ll(I XV, lS l_lit c)f Ille hol|lewolk I|ecessilry 1o whip the financing arrangem_,ilt wilil Ihe IMI:/WII into shal'_e. Tile Ihe first track was public and Irltiispill'elll; tile sec:olld was I£ealed as all l_llernal matter. ,, 156

I

that could be retained

by the exporters

restricted

the use of the retained

exporter's

line of business.

that

the

proportion

_'estrlctlons were

allowed

earnings,

called

in April

1992

retained

by exporters.

the

100% retenllon

full,

llis first

political

spectrum

and

together

for mutu_tl

the

the Metro

shortages, nature

particularly of the

governillent, are

late

under 1993.

equivalent

to power

made

continue actually

of

the

40%

earnings.

to all

into

branches parties

his

of the to work

progress.

At least

their

firepower

come

to the negotiating

acllleventent

Is being generally

in talk shows

more

serious

tile

¢ottntt-y's

157

difficult,

table

wary

however. the

and

Unfortunately,

gener;ttloti

and

power

due

to the of

the

capability

been

completed

to

operation

expected

by

Promised

Metro-Manila

fn

industrial

constraints

have

with

political

Especially

browttouts

power

Negotiations

and

tested.

financi_tl

arr;mgements

available

sorely

season.

the

long-term.

to be

of relative

by the recurrent

of the dry

anti

build-operate-transfer Investors

of dollar

deliberately

so far, made

have

eiivly

piltleltt'e

the onset

and

use

for ;ill contending

They

use

tt) talk peace.

to Increase

expensive

quite out

the

first acts was to allow

moved

Ire has,

to Improve,

prol_lent

arty actions

unavoidably

install

with

the

that

negotiations

on

on

exchange

reach

to the loudly

and

financing

ft)relgn

to

itdntinlstration's

impossible

small

Barnes'

are exercising

battles.

population's

power

that

groups

area. life has heetl

almost

hlts

cqq_ortunlty

It seems

Invitation,

the

Manila

productivity

the

too

restrictions

of their

related

but ¢omphined

restrictions

of Presidei_t

It;is been

directly

multilateral

the

one

still

of the

President

or Jungle

Ilamos

however,

relaxation

priority

the extremist

at tile administration's

stability,

new

benefit.

in street

Despite

the

1992,

offer

the new rules sharply

the move,

was

Also,

the CB lifted

The

tasks,

_ot with guns

retention

by exporters

awesome

the moment,

for

In July

{_.))._h_rTasks.:

for

for

lauded

inappropriate.

that

llowever,

40% to a set of transactions

The exporters

on use were

ongoing

to ,10%.

power

brownouts

is not ended

as

the investors, myriad

of

like doubting

other

administration

tasks

Thomases,

do

riot

ol)setve.59

make

easy, and they will

tile

lob

The power of

problem

President

Ramos

and a and

Ills

need to learn all tile lessons they can - and In

the process also avoid Ihe mistakes

- from

previous

experience,

particularly

from

that of the Aqulno period,

Tile l'rotl_otlon

o(" peace

it appears government

that

Is

tile

President

Ramos

President

Corazon

has therefore strikes

which

necessary

for national

Congress, the

(II_ificatlg_l_..;

to rally

that

uncertainty 'round

the business

economic

damaged

l'actlons

of

responsibility

sector

in tile

and

has

I't_rthered

tmtlisturl)ed

had

contributed

cause

which

had

economy

and

from

process. coups

Ramos

nor

labor

to relative

of tile environment

recover),.

principally

through

I.o hrlng

to the opeil

greatly

period,

to the

l-fforts

o1"natlon:d

tile various

Ramos

stability'.

contributed

in tile creation

efforts

Aquino

and

by Ihreatened

economic

Its best

the peace

All Ihese have

government,

the common

uncertainty

confidence

transi(i(m

smooth

and

of the

tile

tile

ingredie,_t

exerted

of

fostering

strife.

The

far

iJl

cooperation

Committee,

the economic

civil

thus

headway

a )'ear

Is a fundamental

tile various

exerted

over

achievement

substantial

to himself

large-scale

stability-

table

of upon

Aquino

presided

National

principal

making

I_as built

and other

Unification

tile

groups.

constrained o1" the

were

nation

National

bargaining

political, also

development

interest

tile

and

thus

successfully

lhe members Thus

investment

of

was reduced and

in ourselves.

greatly President

.59 "File Japanese KeL0.o.!l_en_ visited I_lanila in l.ebruary 1992. The press reported tllat they were impressed with the advances that liad been made thus far, but Ilot Impressed enough to make at'lual Invesimenls t!_lltl what they considered to be tile two most critical constralnis to Investment were eliminated: the power problem and kidnaping. , 158

Ram()s successfully legislation

Ih'lrllesso{I l)art) ' hi)'alli('s

whi(:h repealed

It) push Illrough, ill record

the i)hillpl)iites ' Anti-Subversion

served as a major indication

of tile governmejll's

With

out

the rebellious

moment

not

goverrmlent

factlolls

actively

fl'()lli

engaging

the

has had an unprecedented,

This move

tlcw resolve to attain

and

peace.

and at least for the

tlndel{_l()ulld

in political

Law.

time,

econonlic

sabotage,

the

clear field to try Its best to set the

economy and tile country on a continuing

course for recovery and accelerated

growth.

]Iuman

and Pro r)erty

Iong=standlng concern

legal

cases

have actually

case filed by l)resident Ilultman cases,

criminal,

the arrival

have

commanded

come to some conclusion.

resolve

civil and

of President

The

of

conducive

PAcc;.

Crime Comndsslon,

on people's

thankless,

law

tile judicial

resolution

with

wlllch

lives and properties Joseph

faltl_ In their own nation.

159

the attempls

tile

l!strada

has taken

There

Tile

Is not due

tO

cases

can actually to

an

of legal rights.

Anti-

are at' least attempts

"kldnal)-for-raslsont"

years.

system.

of the Presidential

and Ill-organized0

of

uru-esolved

contributing

of questions

in recent

Yet lils small advances

and

and

U_e murder

well-publicised

that tlie courts

rights,

attention

many more

of these

signals

property

while at times bumblh)g

Vice-President

crusade.

providing

that several

related to the libel

on hJr years, and tl_etr l'esolutloll

to the speedy

hnpunlty

within

Yet the resolution

and

public

Tl_ere are many,

By the sanie measure,

to attack the veritable

the task which

Kamos.

much

The trial following

languishing

as small victories,

questions

environment

political,

to note

The hearings

Atluhlo were col_cltstled.

above have dragged

can be counted

flagging

that

It is also encouraging

and Clmpma.n were completed.

cass mentioned

preyed

Rl_|_s;.

gangs

is no denying

on is a difficult,

have that If not

again help shore up tile pol)ulatlon's

A feattire conflict

of the

with|n

|mplemexlted ministries

Plan was

discovery

that

or

government

launched our

the new

discussion,

emphasis far

most

Fitlel

Metlhtm-'l'erHt

its _{t together, could

Ramos

that

and

be exploited

nnd

|)lair.60

the

{c) tile

- and

were

iiHd rural

ccmstlitltlitm

the end

-

(lJ

growth,

prc_cess

of 1992, llabito

For the purposes

I}y two (elttures:

b_lset| oil ;igllculttlrltl

preparation

and

l)eveh)ptltent

MTI}P I•s distinguished

various

It|lpt-ovemettts,

development the

the

Ittld

renewed

of agriculture

its

of

renewed

and

of drafting,

(2)

st)

relative

aH Importunt crucial

and

i,_terlinkages

lttdustriallzation.

emphasis. industry,

Instead the

change

of

productive

is that

between

The

new

the

heretofore

sectors

the

agricultural

structure

are

new

of the separate

now

treated

as agro-lndustrlalization. Work

1991

Impression

NI,.'DA DG Cielito

by President

,and re-emphasizes

reflect

treatments together

disagreements

tile Medium-Term

led 1992-9()

the

rural

chapters

not get

the

of

MTDPs.

re-states

growth,

ct_tlltl

that

"l'o_ard

tlle new

Among MTDP

attd

(b)

to be

The spectacle

growH1.

(a) tl_e revelalion

oi)on

that needed

MedLu!n "l__rjK_l_}f?v__lf_ptttetltPlil.tl.;

extensive

to previous

economic

and

pet'tlll[ilt'V.

on industrialization

the

nnd

tlls_igreelllellt

at_d actions

oH ministries;

the inter-minlsterinl

"I3le 1992-1996 new

In:

binding

dlrectlonless

- political

to advantage

recovery

resulted

is not

w:ls coHtintting

on the strategies

economic

in d|sagreement

bureaucracy

period

tile bureaucracy tnward

Development

the

Aquino

during

and tile

consultations Aqulno

on

period.

the

1992-96

The

litany

M'rDI _ were drufts

of tile

hegun pkm

as early were

ns late

reviewed

i

60 DG ]lablto was NEI3A 13epuly !')(; IH the filial year of lilt? AtittiHo _tdmhtistrnllott. lie crone to NI.:I)A fltJm tJl' l.ll, where lie h.'td formed part of the Agricultural Policy and Strategy "I'eam so iHIluentlal iH tile hlitiai year of Aquino.'

l(,0

thougli

a

frequent

meetings.

The

committees

series

meetings

with

presentations

inter-agency

progressed

all the way

Cabinet

of

through

tile

l'resident

were

also held.

from

senior

dlreclion.

Ilowever,

f_.alure

of Ihe

which

Ihere

Aqulno

take actions

llliiSt

have oni)'

era,

and

Fai'merl

Developnlelli

Program

funded

Ivlaliageinellt should

projel'ls l_l'ogrlini

Program

fliilded

and

ai_elicy

ll)'

wilh, illilll),

Ilie

l)evel(llllilt_ill

/'OllSlSleili

illiills

illld

in one

i_le

and

and

v_lth a

|ogelher

wilh

the

already

a

tluparlme,lls

the M'I'I}I ) arid its the hure_ucracy

dellarlnl/'.nls,

like Ihose of

liiivlri.illnieill

alid

Natural

Ihe M'I'I)I _. The plans of Ihe

World Iiank,

wllh

finally

begun

of whh'll

olhers

by iht2 tI.S, Agent:),

to alltl

llrojec!

- allltllig funded

b)' the Aliail

also lie sul)sldlary

l)elWeeil

Io째 anti t'oilMsleill

aiid

in sub-

hearings

has

I)epArlmelH,

ll)' inllivJdu;ll

Agriciilliile,

public

_)1 agencies

I!xt.,t'illk,'e

and

parlles

art: i,lc(_wtsisienl

The

Ilefoliii,

inust lie sulisidlar),

foreign-financed

which

of

all

and

parllcipants

,nembers

- some

in leNiis

briefings

gcwernmenl

galiiur

eHH;ll;ing

Plans llrel_iired

t)l Agl'ariaii

various

hell_

pa|-th'ulaily

s.

cabinet

ihe Iterates

I,roblems

slf-alegtt,

one plall.

Ihe l)ellarlllienls Resoul'ces

are

staff

A number

shtmld

or enact policies

policies

emlledded

officers,

Thus

M'CDP wlllch

inler-secloral

ju,lior-levei

presltlil_g.

l_Fol2LglnL_illLl__M'l"l_P;. Widely-discussed

and

-

Ihe

Ilalik,

Ihe

Small i:lsheries

i_r tJf the Nallii',ll flip lllte.rilalioilal

Iht: IWII)P.

Ihe hlTI)l ) lilllSl

tie

Co(olluI

Sector

Ri_sources

l)evelopnlexil

An), discrepancies

resolved

hi

ravel"

of

Ihe

, .'h

MTDP. with

Indicalions

llle MTDP all ol_porluilily

agalnsl

each

IOilelher

'째,

IJurt_auei-ilcy

some

of execiitlve

other,

and

째PliUl

lho

which

after

disunity Io discredil

clalnl

first

will

the

effort

only

Ihe MTDP,

goveriinlenl

Io "s_ll"

ih(_ IWCDP must

authority

to bring

b_. furiher

to lask

execulive

161

to

play

those

be unable

$lFliCtUl_

slrenliheiled department

fOF

"to

disagree agencies

let

be directed

its

tier

io the

the IWI'DP.

b), providing offices

who

government

the MTI)I _ inusi

aU Is ihe hllplunl_nlhlg

Thus

provide

who

lhe NI:DA willi are responsible

for

inconsistencies

enforcing

the

with

for Focus.

and

each

of the

that

tile resources

all.

Priorities

ln'_erest

groups

actually

adequately and

achievement

capacity

spread

focus

transport

will and

serve

Inadequate

Ramos

aggressive

and

Government

tile

in

is reD'

Yet it is clear

effort

that

must

and

the actual

Government

is urgent.

so Lhinly

as a much

the

to simultaneously

period,

energies

faclllt:tte

before

standards,

1986-92

government's

are

obvious

deregulation,

Independent,

very

completion

respond

to

to please

all

few

identify

resources

needed

Air

Distance

Telephone

Central

monelary

Lines

Is now

generation

of transport

and

current

of priorities,

tasks

were

a short

toward

list of

these.

The

of actions

witl_

of the

government's

signal

shipping

state

deregulation

that

shape

private Only

may

of affairs may

of

priority

izldicalions Ihe

regard

is underway.

Given

hotvvver,

take

tile

much

and

thus

reltalHlltatltm

hollow. sittce

ad','cwat')'

and

the (:14 and

Long

legislation record

The the

on

on

the of

deregulation

interests in the

and

transport

tile

encouraging:

and poor

of

on tile resolution

IIt}vernmc, nt I>udgetary of

lh2

entry, the

fostering

Philipphle

in Congress.

be Jess of it i'_r()l'_lent th;|l|

investment,

ring

longer,

well-represented

sl!ipping

are

assurances

1993

generation,

the

mt)nopoJy

to some

also

power and

consented

Comntunications,

the

Initial

by ntitl-to-late

are

focus:

improvement,

prlwttized,

has

projects,

problem

money

tile

firmly

Autltorit.V

of power

the power

for

polh'y.

Corporation

blonetary

Implementation

candidates conlnltxnicalit)ns

stable,

Philippine

demanded.

or more

resources

The

be more

perform.

There

In the

the

of tasks

are

precious

also

Plan.

by one

funded.

NI!DA must

array

In the

the

concerns, to

tasks,

unclear

of focus

to piorlty

The

of the government

were

The

of tile

Need

priorities,

MTDI'.

implementation

The broad,

the

the

vested above

list

tlllfailing

focus:

are policy

matters

resources

lllstitllathm

are tlf

not

power

generating largely

capacity

may

require

be an accounting

3]lg._S..tLC.ll_lhet_itlg The fact

of

thai

artifice,

Aquiqo and

econonlic

matters,

ofllclal

to

clearly

lead economic

era were unclear,

strollg

when signals

economic

and

tile

regime

relative

weakness

_[gnals

merely

attd

did

ilive_tors

she

the

the

identify

|nt:a,tt

that

I.u

¢()ntradictoz'),

private

_talure

of

nor

policies

occur_d

tll_

during

investors

and

clealiolx

Oll

ctllerprise.

of the

to

agency

reassurance

colllillued

and

authority

lhe economic This

C¢)llllllilillCllt

uncertainty

the

a single

diffused.

lnvestntelit

may

Reform

to herself

needed

slr¢)llg

Ihnes

exacerbated

reserve

leadership

long-Ilium

at

not

that

even

of lhe CB.

few I!cotlomic

p()lic), making

and

° and

in lhe case

xleltlter

g(Jv(2rxlnlelll's

l'avorhq[

did

economic

lluslnessnlen of

particularly

President

on

a period

financing

the Gt_verm_lent's.('._iipacity

speak

of her

government

all

The

government's

and

the

business

community.

Tl!e h!TDP:. economic policy

The

declaration

development horizon

end-l'Jroducl frame_._l-k

:lnd

for

tile

bluefwlt]t

COIISUIIIIII(HIS. of

Ilte

|_roJe(.'t platls

of

of tile different

relaled

to the MTDP.

parameter

for all other

anclior

the plans

for

Ihell

(lel;lil5

government

MTI'tP can

pr()vide

ill

has

Ihe

already

It remain5

that

gcwernment

of investors

MTDP Is the one,

tile

deparlntents,

'rile ralllOS governme|lt work

the

the aggtc:gale

al|tl

M'I'I)P will

specificilltOll

of The

for the econ()llt>'. of

The

that

platls.

and

vat-lOllS

agencies

A5

()1 collective

i)araHlelers secl()l-al,

and

stlt'h.

for

regional

of debate,

tile

deliberation.

program

and

staff.

start

in its

be declared 11 (:ill!

the

inlplemer_talion.

i'c.glol|al,

a strong

Ihe IqTDP

entrepreneurs.

163

result

overall

clarify

greatly

thc2tl l)e the locus

Ihe

made

will

and only,

Ihell

advocacy

as the guiding sen,

e

as

tile

_omiC.. resoluilon

o[

economic

the

ol,[el_

policies

Investment

I_t)llcy_

- as well

recl)tlrst,

I_Wal'tl

as exlreme

leadelshil_

secretaries

res_luth)ll/

t_

whi_h

Illilke

conclusive

any

he will Iosler.

government

can speak

l'lantdng

or the Secretary

Budget,

Trade

Presidential

Ill@Ill

otiier

the

will

tile

and

l-xecutive

ohsecva_ions

on

h(_wever,

Ihat the President

are ill his exclusive

speak

speak

o/fficlal,

l)evelopm_:nt

111ailllahi

continue

(;(_ver_()r

II|l,ICl| till

l()o

()VelillJ

Ior

hi|n

and

tile

viesV

Secretary

but

tile

to

he

highly

speak

macroeconomic

will soon anti

16,4

government of I!conomic

ell' Agriculture,

on

There

l,e created,

the

:il.il,d

by

its

the

fact

that

the the

financial

possibility

that

of the CMA

of the President vantage

for

tnter-sectoral

international

a special

policy

is of course

is a strong

the

or interests

and the Governor

the review

- from

economic

Planning

of Finance,

clepenclent

on

sectors

cOt)lit)Ill)'

of Economic

withol,H policy

ellen

IO l_iH'liClllilr

of the econt)my.

Authority

the Secrc2tar),

the Se_'retaries

c_l" the

Secretary

the senior

i)[ the Cc,ntral Bank axial even

k(2)'Cd

The

independently, on

Willie

of

Rural

aside,

is eilher

tile

linkages.

Monetary

I'resident

Industry,

has to take a world-view

then

l_ollcies

(_C(lll,Olll,ic

ﾂ｢)1 th(: ._;e(-retarles

of I:inance.

economist

Philippines

can

to

and

government's

the Central

one

for

basic tasks are

be at)le

interactions

flows,

and

Adviser

their IO

[hat

IIL__/21{ILC!_/IL!,!:s..Persfmalities

who

illatler$,

openly

ol,t ecozl,o|ltic policies.

:._!_ official

either

that

Ramos speak

It may help.

I'[rmly

or

in

Will

should

and/

conservalism

debate

out that the eﾃ様'_erlentce ﾂ｢_1"flu., Aqtliltc_ perlc)d indicates

jurisdiction,

on

President

tO polltt

delllonstrale

Secretaries

matters/

It is too earl}, in Ramos' Presidency of economic

Cabinet

Will

;Viii Ills cabh)et

also rule on economic

the features

hc, tween

- tile "walt anti see" attitude.

a clear

wilhotlt

dlsagreem(:ll[

in c()nfuslon

on economic

length,,

Secretary

open

resulted

decisions

with, fhl,ality at

l.e_dershi/2;. Over tile past six years, the no_-transparent

or of any

point

as the

economy's

monetary

manager,

must also be empowered which

l:imdl)', whoever

is tlesigilaledhy lhe President

to overrule otlmr secretari(:s who

are inconsistent

with

the Presidellt's

enact sectoralpolicies

inlerluelalion

of economic

strategy

and policy,

/_dvocacy bureaucracy overcoming simple

tlzO lhl[_aLtC.LOa:v;. One of Ihe lessons of leadership

in is

tliat

tile

bureaucratic

inertia

set of goals under

Is Ir;tnsforn]t'tl

goverlime]ll

undertook at Ihose outside

organization internally

foundered

not being

hnnrovlng strengthen that

the results

The

NEDA Is relatively

government, research

The

DOF

macroeconomlc Willie analysis

and

the

terms

macroeconomic

results

only

Willie

Ihe

of Ihe

,neanlime

not clearly

is overcome,

Aquino

allempts

the

were

government's

lecl. or v,_re directed

added

the

Ic) the lmpressh)n

along el r the

for

macrt_ecoit(mHc

are shared

needs

a/.lency

the critical

"rile DA and

DBM

surprisingly,

and

also to ensure

economic

For macroeconomic

to be strengthened.

numerous. the

through

analysis,

The

no

agencies.

policy

Central

Flank

the DTI have have

needs to

very

units

in

the

economic

small,

weak

dedicated

to

analysis. of

Jmproventent

,,viii certainly in

nit,s!

In Ihe

were

tlle best staffed

st,-fl'f Is the most

staffs.

is not

also

at adv()('ac)',

of

of a short,

Anoh:#J.____C.I_LtÂŁLlX;. The government

cap:icily

of the analysis

but

Juggorll;llll.

task

able to get lls act Iogelher.

.Macroeconom!c

its Interred

_1 v('tllaide

the [_ttveau('rac),.

The

The

focus on Ihe aciiieveinenl ()nee Ihe lnerlia

elforls

paths.

I_)' inertia.

leadership.

t_ec:zuse they

contradictory

government

illll)

nlaJ()r

Is afllt('led

requires

¢l)]lsistelit

|lUleallt'rat'y

directed

hureaut'racy

in the

of

improve projects,

policies,

and

the

project but the

in

I)ureaucracy's evaluation,

terms

improvement

165

of

the the

capacity greatest

for need for

microeconomlc

of knowledge

economic

and

analysis

effects understanding

of

t

"of the Interactions,linkaRes and

overall effects should departments

[he government's

tr:_de-offs

compensation least

over

between

n_echanlsms

Ihe crllical

expected

economic

analysis

n_inimlzetl

in

research

gail|s

are

will h:_ve

crllics

role.

The

medk_

or supporters careful and

reading faculty

safety

may

by reforms

be hurt

financial

and

from

gover_iment

which

nets

a_d - at

cannoi

the more

powerful

least

over

Ihe critical째

short

la

various from

tile

wilh

same

free.

alltl

The

are

It_ pay

to ll_llhHiallSl

them

advice,

international

policy

to be

by

research as well as by

reform

be till'lied

It)

consulllng

the

record

rhetoric

progressive

are

in either

utilized

righteous

slloultl

alld

and

and

often

[he

and

produced

I.niversilies

oflen

of az}al),tlcal

enahle

high-quality

[o

c_m [_v

academe

papers

-

unils.

I)e convincing

and

Ihai

cost

publisl_,

l}osilions

[o review

['tHIIIIIIIIIII_'

afford

views,

various

skills

The

Philippine

Iheir and

communily

appeal tel're.

Ille

dedicated

m_d even

the

to

1o cost much

posiilo]_s

increased.

capacity

use t)f the wealth

Ol)li.lum

reports

the

llllill)'lJ.Cil[

make

posilitms

of

negollalit_ns.

can

exlsllilg

pt)licy,

donor

Ihe I:llll_int_

and

of governmen!

lap

111 its

in rank

Iiaining

analysis

lie! expecled

l_l.lniillLL

present

the gtlvermllent

international

government

The

researchers Their

t:conomic are

Is available

meml_ers

will provide

[llll_Jovemcnls

;list) make

ohen.

to

by the

losses; to

a]_d lo create

who

of adding

to I_e raised

that

The

government

t)rigln.*lles

term.

of those

or retle|hJing

the

the

hm_

ellt_l'molls.

macroeconomics

by the

either

The

should

community.

Interviewed

of

and

the process

.'_gencles.

gt)vernmen[

capacity

allow

[o the concerns of specific

capacity to hal._ncc gains and

in support

by [l'al_sft:rrlng

The

Institutions

short

manage

economic

[he

researchers

respond

the sl_ort term.

The NEDA can

and

hell)the Bove|nmcnt

regarding their "clle.ts '째,of sectors and specialinterests.Analysis

will also Improve appreciate

overall effectsof polic|es. An _Ipprecia_ionof

thai

,|tlvanlage fees

senllmen(s

but - at

Finally, in advocacy also with private

hnproved

and negotiation

the otl_er

large-business

President

or designated

improvement

government

The

plan

that

Democrat[zilflon

and

and

strategy

actual

"can

bright.

for

tile

and

will

difficulties

In adopting

for

private

clear

majority

Incurred

position of the

In gelthlg

with

the

community.

enunciated

be significant

by

the

steps toward

of teamwork

in the

together".

of the

bureaucracy

Ramos

I)y which

from

the new gt),vernment

undue

came

extent,

pressure

into

power

bureaucracy

;he

Clearly tl_e Ramos government will face enormous

demonstrated, the fact that jockeying

but

|uflU_Cl_ce

policies tl_at often run counter

and Implementing

preferences of major

financial

the perceplion

hand

bureaucracy,

Congress,

government,

ensures that again, and perhaps eve. to a more serious cmmot achieve insulation.

tile

- particularly

get its act

oi" Priv_LC__ctor

The l)rocess

wifldn

spokesperson,

actually

tile government's

the international

team_s_rk

The prospect of Insulation Is not very

internally

with

economic

of both

- one

only

strengthen

of government

sector,

economic

will greally

- not

branches

A single

the

analysis

Interests. there

were upwards of

and

re_¢mrces

votes

- and

elected,

As Ihe recent

meant

that

moreover

I{el);lytlt¢;nt

national

I_alf-a-dozen

tile winner

would

have

ca=l Include

the

elections

amply

political

parties

could to

to

pay

()1 layers

not off

amass the

a

debts

returned,

or

0

proteclion not

guaranteed.

a majority

President

- garnerl)lg

only

Ram()s w())= the elections

2396 ¢)f tht, l)Ol_ular

I)), it slim

plurality

v()le. "I'() Slay in power,

and

Io

4

gain tile

cooperation

llllluenced

In ¢llreclions

gain more relative

]!l!_ltl_s shows

very

of the varit)us where

se(t()rs,

pilrlh'lthlr,

m()re

IIlil)'

II()t I)e able to avoid

I)owerful

se¢'l()rs will

being

sland

io ()liters.

" I{jiUl!O__.(.[[!g._lll!n¢l_| Intense

h(:

"private

!{k'!iltl*qll_;.

sector"

'lhe

l-_;irti(-Ii)atlo=l,

IC_7

I{,,m_)s g()vclllmeilt l)uvi=lg

the

already

Presidential

Io

cajlil);iign

in ]992

candidacy herself

R:lmt)s aclivel)'

Was of course

belongs

th_ electloit

slrt, nl_llloned

to a Weallhy,

v_rc

being

('_uflt,tl

tallied

and

more

for the first

consultations

at the end

since

of Ramos'

_].]lc?Cabll._.U. The

President's

Flttance,

and

the

Adviser

Development Ills

and

most

recent

President

llaggard

and

and

of Ilamos'

the

the

"l_roaﾂ｢lened

Trade

|stdttstr)',

l!xecutlve

[)ecame clear,

the

tames on a

'['he PCC[ has held

mttiii-sectol'al

coltsultation"

Cllairmen

to

.qt._t'retat'y,

Ills

I'resitienlial

AssistaJtts

Presidential

Bank

the

and and

()f tile

National

the iltf]uertce

Transportation

Developnlettt.

appointment

of

in office.

as

Pitillpl)ine

victory

t_f R:mlos' gt_vernment.

npi_oiulet_

the

Power.;

{ 1991 ), Montes have

already

anti consequently, formidable the

100 days

(m Rur;tl

Who

Even as the results

dontiniltod b)' huslness - with

beitig

and

Aqulno,

Ills

Central

are

Secretaries

Bank's

of

Communications,

Coul_cil

all

of business.

for

l_lindanao

on

Econt)mic

prominent

businessmen.

Monetary

Board

is

tile

of tl_e PCCI,

Wealth

(1993)

first

Vlsayas,

fanlil)'.

The l{ztnloS c_tl}itlet ;llso lellocls

Agriculture,

Presidelltlal

of President

sector.

antl ll|dustry(PCCI) had already organized a

It)() days

- one

first

btlsii|ess

the trend

large "multl-sectoral"conference of action

b)' tl_e sul_Porl

InllueitliM

PhilippinesCl_amber of Commerce

pt'ogram

Iho suiH_tJi[ tff tile bosil|ess

pointed

agrarian

and

deal

with

resistance

protectionist

trade

tariff

to the extreme

disparity

and

influence reform,

This

reform of the

policy.

Nelson

{ 1992),

to econonlic

with

including

Vlllitntlevll

of the wealthy.

the

analysts,

,(1989),

of lltcome

obstacle

interests

Many

across

"l'illlbel'lllill/

provide

review

owllers

clear

Other

of

PhililH)it_e wlleJl of tile

evidence land

economic

Wurfei

society

PhiliiH_ines'

el" tile need

reforms

Crone

of wealth, as the

tile reforms

_tnd busittesses

[1992),

( | 991 ) and

in the distrihution

p_trlicularly

paper's

(1991),

most

threaten eﾃ用erience

to effectively dependetxt

currently

on

thought t

"

1(_8

appropriate

for

i)anklng

and

services

other

and

at least

over

the short

I_g[fll'ln

for

adverse

effects

for

fornlulalJoll bring

Measures

which

profitable

after

be

ermanent,

only

analysis

over

free

c_tl)acity"

adverse

the

effet'ts

entry

into

limitations

on

t)xt the wealthy,

adv()cacy.

remain

I)y tile reforms

hurl

a,_ti('ll)aled

gahle,s

!tilt|

are

any

Drocess

adjustment

losers

Ihe

that

f[om

goverzlmexzt's

itttentia|tt

c()iitex[

liZe

for

the

to the

effo_ts i()

eftel|,

st)me

who

the

that

the

|he

(if IZnl)lt)ving The

for

"l'hls presupposes

M'I'I)P is an itleil]

enterprises

will

task

who will be l_urt I)y the reforms

without

m_d ttltdtte

that

alttl

,leces._ary

short-ie,-m.

tile

iiv('t.)sslly

Those

these

but

agenda,

Ihe

tile I vf()rnl

tl_ose

lie

Its reform

of tile

I)ehlnd

fro,n

resistance. capable

and

adjust

to

protectioq

from

lie to the

shifltqg

profitable

The

greatest

have

structures,

will be necessary.

(if ilweslJn(:l_ts or

will

to resources.

cost

ten,petition

post-reform,

resislance

access

undistorted

will clearly

those

In

inlo

a new

line

that

emerge

as

reform.

enterprises anticipated

f-'trm production corn

have

ntay

azzd itl(,nllf|t,d

tile adjustment - Illose

The

who

pt-ocess,

help

_fl)ogelher

also

out

tl)e advocacy

of subsidies,

liberalization,

_)f "lneasuretl

mapped

to the process

originate

cases

are

ASsistance;.

of course

rate

A tlif[h'ult

those

reform

economic

_lot acquiesce

nd

convi,lce

.'ill tlltO harness

re,novel

will (-t'rtail|ly

I_l._ks tllldelllzle

alld

exchange

term.

has

Adlustment

from

al)t)lltlt)t_

from

These

capac|ty

bus

enterprises,

for tire reform

reforms.

some

like

MtttUEL__._I]_il;.

is to

government

path

Philippines,

production,

government

the

tile

production. substitute

wlllcll

have

to require

sign!fire,it

atijuslfnell!

to refining)) So that st, bsldies,

shares assislance

automobile adjustment

the

adjust,nent

169

of the

ilicltJde

assembly, assistance

economy sugar

textile does

assistance

not has

and

sl_ould

production

manufacturing, degenerate to be transparent

into

and

temporary,

extendlble

l)rogr:lmmed

period.

Tile

for the provision

Board

and

which

be m,'mlfest

wtll only are

also

that

max

be

livelihood

lml)lemented

to

poverty

may

non-

instrument

relief,

rellabilitatlon

already

results

of reform The

The

and

targeted The

subsidy

groups

measures.

projects

const0mer

those

be indeterminate.

conmlunitles,61 the

trallsfer

a fixed,

Io av,_tit the

alleviation

Infrastructure

poverty-str_¢ken

for

the resources

Include

over

be an appropriate

required

a tag - whlcl_

as temporary

small-scale

may

is

have

after

Implemented

and

defined,

not

basis

It) enterl)rises.

assistance

who do

critical

per-et_terl)rise

assistance

Special

disadvantaged,

a

of Ixwestments

of adjustment

q_.%fg.ty Nets:.

nets

on

actl.),ltles

measures

employment,

at

effort

safew

specific,

well-

currently

of tile

being

Natlonai

Food

q

Authority

to the Department

relieving the

the

NFA of a costly,

lnstittnti0nallzatioxi

whicll

Is mucll

l:urthermore, arid

and

the NI-A/ DSWI)

subsidy

via

and_tl_e:

subsidy

net

al)l)r()pxlalic)ns

Ihe

operated

to I.'lrgel

i)r()gram

is a good

aald creating

sal'ety

ai)le

Developnlent

su(h

process,

the

('oaL,itntl_er

and

of

opportunity I)y

is transparent:

case

[or

DSWD

-

suhsidles.

the cost

is knaown

Ille beneficiaries

can

inl terms

may _

and

record

on

farmers,

be ol)sex'_,etl i

aml

strel_glh

lnl'ltlelll'e

to the i'ural

patlern

Poverty

tlalat_i[_g__(.)f_Jtlflugu_e

of the

of strongest

the weakest

61

and

Identified.

IIovernment

A similar

pul)lir

Ihe

An examination

position

tlistor0ve

e(luippetl

"F.mpowerment"

the

Welfare

of a well-t:txgeted

more

controllable

be clearly

of Sorial

ilvray of

to i)llvale,

Infltlence

)egald

()tl policy

'),,,ill quickly

illli)t)rl-$ilbSlltUling

.small fi._hermen with

of inl'luences

aml to the

enterprises

of

mechanisms 170

are discussed

by Bailsacan

Ille and

in general.

I)OVe|'t) '. What

i

targeting

in

observe

l_oor constmlers pilllelllS

making

(1992).

is

interesting

Is that

policy

and

tile dlstrlbulion

influence

on I_lic)'

the

distribution

willie

of votes

revolutions

of wealth and

of tl_e poor, leaders

are

economic

and

politlcal

continuing

need

pleblcites

Jeadershlp

The facilitaIlon

clearly

a firstand

created

and

facilitates for

major

farmer-representative

Ille

Kabislg

of

The

of numbers.

distribution

between

governments

positions

public's

by means

vote

of

have

a

of elections,

confidence

of economic

oppmlunltles

in

the

passage

continuation

of the

Peasant

and

- as

of the

Magna

mandaled have

Forum;

well

the

the

on

each

concerlls Agricultural

f)articipatlon by

Small

is a major Fisheries

is be

Aquino

in activities in decision-

Farmers,

Governing

and

their

must

President

participation for

in

hlIo

polLcy making

aggrupalions

as

Carta

to) sit

agrictlltural

launched

middle-class

group

policy

in ecollonlic for such

Movement

of lower

Is

i

the

as ¢1ose.62

power

authorit,trian

their

between

a_id EDSA0 as well as other

Ireme_Idous

impleulentatlotl

The

that

i

is not

on

tht, l)()t)r's ,1_IX'_llll_Ige 111V()leS l)e tr_liislaled

More

agencies

:

correspondence

l')atterus

even

legitimize

step.

govert_ntent

+

thus

where

may

within

recent

the

power

of the poo1+'s represent,'tlio11'

protected.

The

patterns

of tlle poor, of

of influence

the

be gauged.

enables

benefit

making63.

-

and

tl_e strenglhenhlg

mutual

and

power,

may

favor7

of political

to tl_e differing

exercises

thai

high,

is a demonslrati()n

yt)_,(_l-_|).olY._L';,llow power

is very

in favt)r

sensitive

other

between

the slvucture

to validate

and

polltlcal

consi,_tency

is clearl),

Political

polltlcal

the

where

a

of

all

Board first

step.

Councils;

The the

i.

62 Ilaggard (1991) refers 1() the Mavc<)s g()vernnlent, and Io the Philippine c:lse 111general, as that of it "weak" :IUlll()ritarlall regime - dependent not on nlilltary force but on an ever-expanding circle ()f i_alronage originating from the executive, and "tile political matglnallzath)11 of lecllno(;rats in the decisionmaking process." 63 Kztlff,_ig or "linked ttrtlt._" c11 "t'<Hltrlttl('" - wits iltsllltltionallzetl Aqulno to formalize '°the parlt_ershil_ I)eIwet:n the gt)vel"tmlent altd the national way of tlnity and solidarity." (AtlUino, ! 991 ) J71

b), President the l)et)ple '' as

Agrarian

Reform

strettgthen

the

envlronnzlenl

The

or donor

representation

cannot

sectoral,

voluntary,

flowering for

political

grillltOt|

the

like

l_q_ulali()n

ill (:()ngress

must

will

In

Lnallan-()viented.

any

unique

makixtg serious

the

peoples'

is

and

a

also

policy

Finally.

the

lie completed

as

itssislallt'e

IO the

()th(;r

effort

to

should

be provided

from of

sinliiar

achieve

the

vast

of power

of

nitlmbers

of

(NGO$),

Iheir

of

these

decision-making

[)¢2 carefully

sustalllable

and

potential

and

also

tile costs

organizalions The

shouh.i

since

iI{)ll-gl)_,'el'illllellt

Iqlilipplnes.

and

ellOFIll()tl$

and

is netessar-),,

i_iolllt,nalitm ilntl

Lie protected

Iepiesentati()n

¢)f the Dalance

Is

must

I)y i1(11"collecled

t¢_

the equalization

policy

change

in

nurtured in

[o

Pililippine

economy.

Balancing

tl_e Odds

The policy

In International

fulfillment

thrust,

Identified at the

Such

l)e supported

private

in

and

ruv,tl

in policy-making

resources.

I(_hl

maturity

I_eavil)'

for organizathm

Lilt: l_Clt)n . Tile full

P_'lllppine

lira

representatives

partlcipati(m

public

associat|ons

to) be

Sectoral

Resources

cat, sequent

t_f

(:tmncils

64

pear's

supported.

capa('lt),

('ontlnucs

of the

soon as possible.

I_eoples ' l!ctmonlit"

barg;tlning

that

appointment

from

Councils.

expressed

economic

negotiating

of the

imperative

for

a single

MTDP,

in

authority t:tble.65

Fixlan('v

will The

a single,

multiply

the

achievemenlt

of

overall

enunciated

with

Philil)l)ixles' sucll

development

a stance

finality

bargaining _11 also

and by

an

strength facilitate

i

64 Under the 1987 Constltutioll, the I'resitlolii Congl'essnlelt '/¢]1o x'epresent specific st.CLot-s, Int:ludiltg th_z disabled, and women. 65 stories l]itxlk, of tile refer

appollils 24 sectoral larxlieis, labor', the youtlL

It Is revealing that cox_versatlons of the ;ttithor with those about negotiations between the PhilJppixle governnlent and the LISAII) and oilier internatl(mal llnancing agencies refer to Internatloxlal side as: "The WB said .... " or "Tire USAID said to statements on tire Philippine side as: "Secretary X said 172

who relate the W()l-id statements __, " Dut __." and_

the careful,well-analyzed and reseavt'hedl'hrt'l_aralic)ll cJfthe p()llcyl'_oslllons of the negotl_tlng team. shoring

up each

for Internecine

tlte

the presence

has

strategy,

Call

been

tligtt|ty

little

all else falls,

than

ttsttlg

the

flnancitlg there

negoliations

agency

is merit

as an arena

providing

to never

the

having

Ihett

conic

ft)rwitrd

Aside

the

from

to sigt) the more

I_sychtflol, h'al [sosturc'

at the f(u'tllal

for analysi

s , examination,

the repudiation

argued

tile fhtal

agreements

-

amorpitous

elements

of

table

leaves

consultation,

of it commitment

ant|

of tleg()tiating

negotiating

spoils.

Secretaries

('_tll al_l_t'(_vt' I_c)slll_ttl_ It) bt, t:lbletl

reached. _ttd

room

hcmlew()tk c'an lllen be directed at

the external

of tile Secretary

precious

rather

Sttcrt, taritts

Secretaries

agreement

or, when

with

nettotiatlnl'.

¢,_.tlture, protocol,

with

positions,

of negotiating

b)' deputies. after

other's battle,

In terms tlohlg

Preparatl(m and

made

its equals. tile Secretar),

strategic byan

timing,

officer

junior

already

been

t

to ti_e Secretary.

.LAn O]_eningJor devoted

by the government

[t_ternational

financial

Bank's

recent

most

recognition. released

performance comp,'u'ed

llaggard

WB's

to those

Aquillo (1991)

of

tile

"The

attalysts

period is more

"Secretary Y said ___," speak with one voice.

also

reforms circumsl_eCt

The

its

optimistic

tony

at a similar

on

the

An Opening

the of

generally

Pl_llipplnes'

been Nelson

when regarded (1991} success".

considerable advances

Pidlippine

such

for Sustained

if not superior..."

the major

the

World

Philippines,

the

conclusion.

;.rod "with

often,

of

by the

Is indicative

have

- he rt_cognizes

173

unnoticed

n perspective,

which

is that

have

gone

Memorandum

"broad"

Implicatlon_

not

"... is similar,

Mexico, arrive

that

economy

h'om

reform

and

have

Philippilies:

that

policy

efforts

p(3sitive,

Economic

emphasizes

of Indonesia

reform

Philippine

is entitled

economic

Other

enormous

The'

Country

1992

report

with

as successes. tile

comtuttnlty.

in December The

The

to economic

review

The

Growth".

lists

Growtll?:"

side

achieved

did

not

by the Aquino

governlnent

also the Aquino

government's

the social

structure"

taken

the

by

only

a "basic

action

reforms,

on

on reforms..."

- and

|ransformation

to die list of actions

substantial of progress

structures

(wn,

in

that

must

but

also

be the

1992)

Note Aquino

expectations.

government

In 198.5

while

Its neighbors

most

other

observers

governmen

carried

_he Philippine

Into

economy

onward

into

of the Philippines

but also econ:omlc

Aqulno and

had

Thus

lhelr

rt:covery

on

fi=llen

Nl('-hood. pinned

her government.

office

Ihe

to Its

lowest

the ]:iliplno

hopes

not

were

of most

popular

depths, and

for polllical

rapid

miracles

of

people

only

_llitl sustah]ed,

In short,

strength

growtll,

expected

on

of the

1.

The Aqulno No mh';tcles

was

had r,|ced

and social x'ene_ti,

Aqulno

to itnl_lement

The WIi adds

of the "perception

A Concluding

President

inability

not

of democratic

re-establishment

of the counwy.

Pldlipplnes

encouragement

The

in the

were

_;overnme=_l

clearly

falls

short

perfornmd,

it may

be said

that

since

expectations.

Ihe expeclalions

were

....

impossible

to meet.

which

to judge

more

approplate,

comparison

[hen

Ihese

are

tile achievemenls

with

accompllshn_ents

including the

Jnapl_r_,f, rlate

of Ihe Aquino progress

performance

versus promises

:lJ_l'LC.E.tilLLO.ll_, Yet such

from of

[o impose period.

as the

Other

the depths

neighboring

of

slandards

the

1985

countries

government

expectathms

cannot

be

situation. actual

tllsmissed

lightly,

cotlstantly applied Colutmdsts

174

as

because

which is Jls

Par¢Ict=larlyin the absolutely

c;Icophony of the Philippines' free

performance.

be

made by the govertlment.

fundamental wel[sprlng of politicalstrength.

expectatlotls are

by

may

arid

these form ;Icriticalfeatureof popular support for the government,

untrammeled

standard

si_eechand press, popular

y_Ltdsticks for the assesstnent of

and commentators,

talk

shows

and

editorials

flll subst:mtlal

or so dallies. most

Given

newsworthy

proportions the

of alrlime

shallowness

and

of the

titillating

and

tile pages

of the three

coalition,

critics

Aquino

commentary.

The

dozen

provide

media,

the

attracted

to

controversy, amplify disagreements, point out gaps, feed expectations,and 'oVer any achievements. poor

performance

very

difficult

only

domestically

quality

A vicious cycle of high expectations and perceptions of

is set in motion,

to dispel.

- that

one

The problem

whiclt

gathers

of unrealistic

but Mso internationally.

the

gloss

momentum

expectations

The EI)SA event

PhlllppiJ+_cs wot, hl "lh'e

hal'q'_iiy

ever

and

becomes

has been true not

acquired

after"

a fairy-tale

trace

b.larcos

was

¢.leix_sed. The

lesson

of

performhlg

well,

must

also build

The

Aqulno

government

lenrnotl,

not

necessarily

speak

perception

of the

_.latidit's

self-confidence.

confronted

will|

to be buffeted the

task,

to

the Filipinos investors,

Fllli_ino

as

tile

As a result, a

j_etsl_ttt'tlvt',

cannot

tourists,

have

traders,

government,

tile

;ult[ shape palnfuly

and

at a late

Perhal_s

of llimself

has

most h_ts

not

both political

Fiill'Jlnt)s, t|evt.,h)l}t2¢|

lit

last,

haltered, it vet),

iiDSA renewed

tile

as tile Filifdt_os

were

its it continued

illld natural.

themselves, will/

i}o{)l

The

were and

they

tJf

size

of

severely

frustrated

t)i}lltion

can

do tile

eCt)ll(}luy

bruised

deeds

inti)ortantly,

achievements

an¢! dclnots

175

that good

more

alld

government's

cottftdence finant'lets

did

to actually

gt_od perforntance,

stage,

even

its democracy

calamity,

Aqulno

of

to be Impr<}ved.

self-confidence

after

in addition

the i_erCt:l_tion

thentselves.

The

by calamity

as well

gain

for

is that

tile task of rebuilding

underestimated. t|ltal'fle

expectations

- and

himself.

expect

If

that

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