P HH II LL II PP PP II NN EE I NN SS TT II TT UU TT EE FF OO RR D EE VV EE LL OO PP MM EE NN TT S TT UU DD II EE SS Surian Surian sa sa mga mga Pag-aaral Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran Pangkaunlaran ng ng Pilipinas Pilipinas
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS Development Research News
September -October 2009
Vol. XXVII No.5
ISSN 0115-9097
Editor's Notes Much have been written, discussed and deliberated about the roots and impacts as well as strategies to address the effects of various economic crises that have hit several economies in modern times, the most recent of which is the
Coping with climate variability and change
2008 global economic and financial crisis. Indeed, this crisis spawned a synchronized recession among industrialized countries, resulting in the contraction of global trade that inevitably hit many developing countries, including the Philippines. The crisis shattered lives as thousands of people lost jobs, incomes, and properties. But there is another kind of crisis that is equally devastating and perhaps even more threatening (with mankind’s survival put on the line) whose presence, however, and the havoc that
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oday, the world faces an enemy that does not bow to anyone. This enemy neither has a strategy to ensure victory nor waits for the right time to attack. It is its own master, and it is called climate change. More commonly referred to as “global warming,� nations plan and work to mitigate and/or adapt to its negative effects. In this regard, in celebration of the 7th Development Policy Research Month (DPRM), an annual activity meant to raise awareness and appreciation of the value and importance of policy research, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) adopted the theme “Coping with Climate Variability and Change.�
it brings, have only begun to be openly acknowledged and discussed just a little more than 10 years ago. Yet, the building up of the phenomenon that led to this crisis began several centu-
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What's Inside 6 Climate change a threat to attaining MDGs 8
DPRM brings symposium on climate change to DasmariĂąas, Cavite
11 Adapting to climate-related disasters 14 13th PIDS Corner opens in Bicol University
The highlight of the DPRM was the conduct of a symposium on Climate Variability and Change: Some Policy Responses held at the C.P. Romulo Hall of the NEDA sa Makati Building on September 22, 2009. The event gathered stakeholders from the government, academe, nongovernment organizations, private sector, and media to discuss policies and measures that the Philippines can do to help manage risks and adapt to the effects of climate change. The discussions focused on seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and their uses as a tool for risk reduction of and adaptation to climate variability. SCFs are tools for predicting seasonal climate phenomena like the El NiĂąo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which bring about climate variability and subsequent problems in rainfed agricultural systems such as in the Philippines. Thus, SCFs are of particular importance to the country’s agricultural sector, especially to its many poor farmers. Climate change and variability In her presentation, “Climate Change and Variability,â€? Ms. Edna Juanillo, Chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of the Philippine 2
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Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), first defined the terms climate variability and climate change. Although with specific characterizations, the two are interrelated. Ms. Juanillo defined climate variability as fluctuations or the ups and downs in climatic conditions observed since the instrumental period (1860 to present) and may be brought in by natural causes such as seasonal climate phenomena like the ENSO and by human activities. Droughts and floods are subsequent outcomes associated with climate variability. Climate change, on the other hand, refers to changes in the earth’s global climate or in the climate of a region over an extended period such as over decades and millions of years. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change defines it as changes that are directly or indirectly attributable to human activity which changes the composition of the global atmosphere and leads to the so-called global warming. Ms. Juanillo emphasized that warming of the climate is unequivocal as stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The report points to the greenhouse effect due to man-made sources as the major causes of global warming.
September - October 2009
What are these man-made sources? One, carbon dioxide which is the result of burning of oil and coal by power plants, industries, and vehicles. Two, methane which accounts for 20 percent of additional greenhouse effect and is caused by the decomposition of garbage and agricultural waste materials, leaks in coal mining, and natural gas production. And, third, nitrous oxide which comes from the bacterial breakdown of nitrogen in soils and oceans, use of nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides in agriculture, biomass burning, combustion process in vehicles, and acid production. The greenhouse effect led to global warming that influenced the increase of the earth’s temperature by 0.7oC from 1906 to 2005. Hence, gas emissions should be curbed, otherwise, carbon dioxide concentration will likely be more than 700 ppm (parts per million) by 2100. This would result in a projected increase between 0.4oC and 5.8 o C in global average temperatures by 2100. Meanwhile, projected changes in precipitation such as more frequent intense rainfall events; longer dry periods in-between; drier coastal areas; probability of more intense El Niño-related droughts and floods in different regions that will bring in more serious problems in terms of climate variability; and human-induced warming and rise in sea level are certain to continue for centuries as effects of global warming or climate change. What is happening in the Philippines? Ms. Juanillo related that as probable effects of climate change, there was a significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights in the country from 1961 to 2003. Connected to this is the recorded significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.
(From left to right) Dr.Canesio Predo, Dr. Josef Yap, Mr. Christian Mina and Ms.Edna Juanillo were the main speakers in the recently concluded 7th Development Policy Research Month.
For the same period, the trends in annual total rainfall decreased in the top northern part of Luzon and Southern Luzon. The opposite is recorded in the Bicol Region (except Daet), Visayas, and Mindanao, where annual total rainfall increased. However, Ms. Juanillo, who is also Assistant Weather Services Chief at PAGASA, cautioned that these findings are not statistically significant.
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There were more rainy days in the top northern Eastern Luzon, Bicol region, Visayas, and Mindanao, but Ms. Juanillo again maintained that such finding is not statistically significant. The trends in extreme rainfall intensity increased in Northern Luzon (except for Aparri and Vigan), Visayas, and Mindanao (except for Hinatuan). The findings are statistically significant for Laoag and Tacloban while the rest are not. With 32,400 kilometers of coastline, the country has among the longest coastlines in the world. Because of this, the Philippines is highly susceptible to flooding due to its many low lying areas. The Philippines is also one of the countries periodically affected by both the El Niño and La Niña episodes. The eastern part of Australia, on the other hand, is also greatly affected by El Niño and the two countries’ agriculture sectors have both been greatly at risk, especially in terms of their incomes, from climate variability caused by these seasonal climate events. This similarity brought together the two countries to forge a Memorandum of Agreement between the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCCARD) and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) to implement a 4-year project called “Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and decisionmakers in agriculture.”1 What are SCFs? Seasonal climate forecasts are forecasts for a “season” that may range from one month to one year. They provide predictions or information on whether the coming season is likely to be wetter or drier and warmer or cooler than normal. SCFs may also indicate whether there is an increased likelihood of extreme events such as El Niño and La Niña and can therefore provide early warning to farmers and other stakeholders especially in agriculture, according to Ms. Jennifer P.T.
To show the economic value of the Seasonal Climate Forecast (SCF) to farmers, PIDS and the Visayas State University conducted corn farm level studies in Isabela, Leyte, Cebu and Bukidnon. Liguton, Director for Research Information at PIDS, who talked about the above joint project and the specific contributions of each of the implementing agencies, including the PIDS. Under the project, Ms. Liguton said that case studies in the Philippines and Australia were used to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social benefits of using SCFs. For the Philippines, the farm level case studies were conducted in the provinces of Isabela, Leyte, Cebu, and Bukidnon. The PIDS conducted one corn farm level study in Isabela to estimate the actual value of SCF and assess the reasons for the gap between its actual and potential values. For its part, the Visayas State University (VSU), also one of the implementing agencies, undertook three corn farm level studies in Leyte, Cebu and Bukidnon that demonstrated the potential and actual economic values of SCF to farmers and decisionmakers.
1 The project started in late 2004 and ended in June 2009. The primary partners in Australia are the South Australian Research and Development Institute, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, and the University of Sydney. The implementing institutions in the Philippines, on the other hand, are the PIDS, PAGASA, and the Visayas State University (VSU).
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September - October 2009 ers on what the probabilistic nature of SCFs really means and how to make them understand why the use of SCFs at certain times of the year and in certain areas may be beneficial and why at certain times and places, they are not. National level Dr. Celia M. Reyes, Senior Research Fellow at PIDS, presented the possible benefits of SCFs at the national policy level. In her paper “Use of seasonal climate forecasts in Philippine rice importation policy,” as presented on her behalf by Mr. Christian Mina, Associate Researcher at PIDS, Dr. Reyes shared that while farmers use SCFs to decide whether to plant or not, and when, at the national level, these forecasts may also play a big role in the formulation and implementation of rice importation policies of the country.
Rice production in the country has long been hampered by various extreme climate events, such as the El Nino phenomenon. Seasonal Climate Forecast (SCF) is seen to benefit the government in its rice importation decisions.
On the other hand, PAGASA presented the detailed status of climate data in the Philippines. Information gathered from the use of SCFs were delivered to farmers, local policymakers and other stakeholders throughout the life of the project. Having the information on hand, farmers are forwarned on possible risks, enabling them to make appropriate preparations for their farms. Because uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather and seasonal climate, no forecast, however, is 100 percent accurate. Moreover, no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty which is in the form of probability. That is why for SCFs, it is important to determine when, how and why they are valuable and should be used, as well as to know when they are best ignored. The “Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture” project, as funded by the ACIAR, precisely aimed to look into this concern. In the process. the project’s biggest challenge was how to communicate with potential us-
With the growing demand for rice, importation remains as a major policy intervention of the government. The National Food Authority (NFA) and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) are members of the InterAgency Committee on Rice and Corn (IARC) that decide on rice importation when there is an impending production shortfall during a particular coming season. As an agricultural country, various extreme climate events such as El Niño and La Niña have affected the production volume of rice in the country. However, inaccurate production forecasts could lead to incorrect volume and ill timing of rice imports, which could result in wasted government resources or a burden to consumers. For example in the early 1990s, contractions in rice imports occurred; in 1995, there was an ill timing of imports; and in 1998, there was over-importation. Because of inaccurate forecasts of production volume and timing of rice importation, the country paid higher prices due to rice shortages as well as higher storage cost due to oversupply. In view of this, Dr. Reyes/Mr. Mina said that the use of SCFs can lead to lower importation cost if it can be systematically incorporated into the decisionmaking process of rice importation. The Rice Importation Simulation (RIS) model showed the link between rice import decisions and SCFs. The model
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS recommends a set of optimal rice import strategies that serves as guide for the government in its rice import decisions in the face of seasonal climate variability. The RIS can also be used in estimating the potential value of SCFs. Ms. Ma. Floretta Estoperez, Chief of the Corporate Planning Division of NFA and commenting on Dr. Reyes’/Mr. Mina’s presentation, reiterated the impact of climate change and variability in the decisions for importation taken by the NFA. She added that with climate change, particularly with global warming, there may be a need for NFA to expand its coverage beyond food security, buffer stocking, and price and supply stabilization and look at buffer stocking certain supply inputs like certified seeds. With or without SCFs, contracts for importation should be finished not later than December of every year to avoid high prices caused by other countries who have gone ahead importing rice. Because of this, the NFA can use the SCFs in deciding how much to import, and not on the timing. Moreover, SCFs may also serve as a tool in helping the agency rationalize where to put up its postharvest facilities, especially the dryers and warehouses. Farm level To illustrate the potential and actual economic values of SCFs at the farm level, corn farm level studies were conducted in Leyte. Dr. Canesio Predo, Assistant Professor at the Institute of Renewable Natural Resources, College of Forestry and Natural Resources at the University of the Philippines Los BaĂąos, and former faculty at the VSU, shared some of the learnings realized at the farm level through his presentation “Estimating the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts.â€? Identifying the dominant farming systems and decision points affected by climate variability is an important consideration in determining the value of SCFs, he said. These include the options of planting schedules, the choice combination or sequence of crops to plant such as corn-corn, corn-rice, cornvegetables, corn-sweet potato, corn-fallow, and level of inputs to apply.
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Dr. Predo then presented the results of his estimates on the economic value of SCFs based on the case study area. According to him, the results show that the value of SCF information — the difference in the return or gross margin between the scenario of using SCFs and the scenario of not using SCFs — was positive but modest. It ranges from PhP21.31 to PhP 303.00/ha per season using the prescriptive approach and from PhP1,300 to PhP2,957/ha per season using the survey approach. While the value may be low when taken on an individual farm basis (with average farm size in the Philippines only measuring about 1 to 3 hectares), translating this to the total land area planted to corn in the Philippines which covers 2.6 million hectares (as of 2007)will show that SCFs can be of great significance to Philippine agriculture. “Thus, it would be very useful to improve the access to SCFs of corn farmers and other decisionmakers in agriculture,� Dr. Predo explained. At the same time, Dr. Predo also presented some concerns related to the use of SCFs. One is the issue of traders’ influence on the farmers’ choice of variety to grow so that even if a farmer may want to use a particular seed variety based on what he perceives is a practical response to the information provided by the SCFs, he may not be able to do so in view of the limitation in the seed variety available from traders. 15
In this photo, farmers watch an SCF announcement in video from which they will plan their farming activities for the next season.
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Climate change a threat to attaining MDGs
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limate change is the number one reason the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will not be achieved. Dr. Rosa Perez, Senior Climate Specialist at the Manila Observatory Regional Climate Systems Program, made this statement in her presentation Climate change and policy responses during the symposium held in celebration of the 7 th Development Policy Research Month (DPRM).
Dr. Rosa Perez, Senior Climate Specialist, Manila Observatory Regional Climate Systems Program, discussed the harmful effects of the global warming, as well as the Philippines' role in reducing carbon emission in exchange for cleaner air for Filipinos.
Dr. Perez shared the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which shows the adverse impacts of climate change on a global level. According to the Report, water availability has decreased by 10–30 percent. This has resulted in drought in many areas and increasing flood events especially in coastal population centers. Crop productivity also declined leading to risk of hunger and affecting human health which in turn causes malnutrition and diseases. In addition, 20– 30 percent of species in the ecosystem face the risk of extinction. Looking at Southeast Asia and the Pacific region, climate change has predominantly caused rising sea level and risk to coral reefs. Particularly in the Philippines, Visayas and Mindanao are considered climate change hotspots as these areas experience negative agricultural changes, adverse impacts on fisheries, changes in the ecosystems, forest fires,
and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The issue on climate change has continued to attract and bring together advocates from both the government and nongovernment institutions to respond to its impending consequences. With the United Nations at the forefront, the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognized the problem on climate change and aimed to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations (GHC) followed by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. It centers on emission targets for developed countries, flexibility, and clean development mechanisms. The 2009 UNFCCC in Copenhagen focused on comprehensive and global agreements on adaptation, mitigation, and finance and technology as part of the long -term vision. The key policy action areas within the FCCC focus on mitigation and adaptation. Dr. Perez stressed that mitigation involves technology transfer to be able to promote, facilitate, and finance the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to developing countries. It also includes building capacity to address the complex issues involved in sustainable development and making available frameworks that fit developing countries. The world looks at the challenge of the next climate convention dubbed as the “Bali Roadmap” that primarily aims for a sustainable global economic development combined with global GHC emissions by 2050, paradigm shift in global economic investment decisions, global adaptation to climate change, and additional investment to address the issue. “Mitigation and adaptation are two different things, which are not alternatives, and that the country must do,” Dr. Perez said. The
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Philippines should reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to lessen its contribution to greenhouse gases, however little its worldwide effect on global warming is because the country can still benefit from cleaner air, less oil dependence, and cheaper energy. Adaptation requires adaptive capacity or the ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. The mere possession of adaptive capacity does not guarantee that adaptation actually takes place because it needs increased sensitivity, exposure, and motivation. If we mitigate 100 percent, the climate will still change so we need to adapt. When we do mitigation, we are avoiding the manageable. When we adapt, we manage the avoidable, said Perez. Some adaptation strategies for the Philippines are managing risk and vulnerability by building settlements away from disaster-prone areas; developing and promoting new crops and farming technology; instituting new insurance mechanisms; and providing alternative livelihoods for people at risk. Meanwhile, as mentioned, the MDGs are at risk of failing due to climate change. Table 1 summarizes the possible impacts of climate change for each MDG target. Locally, climate change is threatening to hamper the Philippines’ attainment of the MDGs because of limited capacity to undertake climate riskbased planning and project implementation. In response, the MDG-F 1656: Strengthening the Philippines’ Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change was put in place. Director Sheila Encabo of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Agriculture Staff reported that the MDG-F 1656 is a joint program between the Philippine Government through NEDA and the UN System in the Philippines for three years. The $8 million-program funded by the Spanish government aims to mainstream climate risk reduction into national and local development plans and processes; enhance national and local capacity to develop, manage, and administer plans, programs, and projects addressing climate change risks; and improve
September - October 2009
Table 1. Impacts of Climate Change on MDGs 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Damage to livelihoods (homes, water, food, infrastructure)
2. Achieve universal primary education
Increased poverty, malnourishment, illness, displacement
3. Promote gender equality and empower women 4. Reduce mortality
Role in food production, poorer access to water, fodder, food Death/illness due to floods, droughts, etc. Diseases
5. Improve maternal health
Water (quality and quantity), food supply (malnutrition)
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc.
Water/temperature conditions for disease, damage to livelihoods
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
Damage to productivity of ecosystems, aggravate deterioration (e.g. Biodiversity)
8. Develop global partnership for development
Strain due to increased needs, stress due to access to resources
coping mechanisms of institutions and organizations. The MDG-F 1656 currently has demonstration projects and sites for establishing equitable integrated ecosystems for climate change adaptation (Cordillera Administrative Region); strengthening disease surveillance, emergency preparedness, and response to climate change-related conditions (Metro Manila and Albay); developing a local governance reform model for climate resilient development (Bicol region); establishing a climate change resilient human settlement (Sorsogon City); and building climate change-resilient farming communities through risk transfer mechanism (Agusan del Norte). Aside from the NEDA, the project’s partner agencies include the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Science and Technology, Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Labor and Employment, Department of Agriculture, Department of Health, and the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council. On the other hand, partner UN agencies are the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Program, World Health Organization, International Labor Organization, UN Habitat, and the Food and Agriculture Organization. APQ
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DPRM brings symposium on climate change to Dasmariñas, Cavite
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n celebration of the 7th Development Policy Research Month (DPRM), the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), in collaboration with De La Salle University Dasmariñas, Cavite (DLSUDasma), conducted a Symposium on Coping with Climate Variability and Change at the Luis Aguinaldo Viewing Room, DLSUDasma campus on September 10, 2009.
In his remarks, Brother Gus Boguer, President of DLSU-Dasma, challenged the participants, composed mostly of students (about 100), to be advocates in protecting the environment. Accordingly, he said that apart from the irregular climate the world faces today, there is a different climate— a climate for the need to change attitudes— that each person needs to address.
This year’s observance of the DPRM, mandated by Malacañang Proclamation No. 247 issued in September 2002, is a venue for a broad-based discussion on the meaning and implications of climate change as well as on the development of adaptation and mitigation measures to counter/address the impacts of climate change, said Ms. Jennifer P. T. Liguton, Director for Research Information at PIDS, in her statement before DLSUDasma students and faculty members. Thus, the theme which focuses on climate variability and change stems from the need to discuss measures that would alleviate the devastating impacts of climate change on properties, livelihood, and Brother Gus Boguer, President of De La Salle lives of people.
“We should ask why these things are happening now and what roles we should play,” Bro. Boguer stressed.
University-Dasmariñas, emphasized the role of the youth in protecting the environment. He also called on them to be more respectful of the environment and responsible in their every action.
“We want to be a catalyst for social transformation in the region. If possible, even in the whole country. It is a challenge to young students to take part in caring for the environment. Anyone can give his share and there is no small contribution,” added Bro. Boguer.
As proof of the University’s commitment, Bro. Boguer shared the information on the setting up of the Center for Children in Conflict with the Law which would be opened in 2010. One of its best features, according to Bro. Boguer, is a simple weather station equipment donated by the La Salle brothers of Phoenix, Arizona, which is a tool that will be used to forecast weather in Cavite within 12-hour intervals. Young children who will come out of detention would be the main participants of the inititative. They will stay for 1-1/2 years in the Center for their social rehabilitation and training on weather forecasting. To further enumerate the dynamic and proactive role it plays in the protection of the environment, DLSU-Dasma has acquired an E-jeepney to lessen the use of diesel and gasoline. The University has also built an ecology center inside the campus to serve as a recycling area.
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http://1milliontreesandbeyond.com/one/
On the other hand, Director Jethro Arsenio of the Environmental Resource Management Center (ERMaC) highlighted the importance of saving electricity. He also shared the “1 million trees and beyond” project of the DLSU System which has been able to plant 300,000 trees since 2006. The goal is to be able to plant 1 million trees by 2011. Reuse, reduce, and recycle or the 3Rs are appropriate ways to conserve energy, protect the environment, and be more responsible in the world we live in, the Director added. As part of its research agenda on climate change, DLSU-Dasmariñas is conducting research in the areas of ecosystem mapping through the use of the geographical information system; air quality assessment; and environmental pollutants. Moreover, DLSUCollege of Science Dean Dr. Carmelita C. Cervillon, lead proponent in this endeavor, mentioned the pipeline research project on the environmental impact of climate change. A plan for the college to conduct a research collaboration project with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAGASA is likewise under consideration. Climate change It can be said that climate change or global warming is perhaps one of the most critical and even complex issues nations face today. Climate change is the result of the presence of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. While these gases are naturally present in the atmosphere, their volume and load are aggravated by human activities that date back from the 1800s with the boom of the Industrial Revolution. Further release of these gases to the atmosphere trap the heat, thereby creating the greenhouse effect. In the global setting, climate change causes the rise in temperatures, the melting of glaciers, and the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which the Philippines also experiences. The Philippine scenario Owing to its geographical setting, the Phil-
In September 2006, the One Million Trees and Beyond project of the DLSU launched its first tree planting activity at Mt. Palay-palay National Park, Maragondon, Cavite wherein more than 400 volunteers participated.
ippines is considered as one of the world's most vulnerable countries to extreme climate events. Its 32,400-kilometer coastline is one of the longest in the globe which makes it prone to storm surges and constantly in danger of rising sea levels. In her presentation titled “Overview on Climate Change/Trends and Impacts,” Ms. Edna L. Juanillo, Assistant Weather Services Chief, Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) of PAGASA, said that sufficient greenhouse gases have been pumped to warm the planet for decades. She added that even if emissions were reduced, the earth’s natural system will continue to be affected for many, many years. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) warned that the warming of the climate is unequivocal. A further warming of the planet in the next two decades is projected to be approximately 0.20C per decade. However, during the 21st century, the projected increase has risen to 1.1–6.40C. Ms. Juanillo then presented trends in extreme daily temperatures from 1961–2003 which showed a significant increase in the
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It is important to forge partnerships and collaboration among government agencies such as the National Disaster Coordinating Council, the Department of Agriculture, National Water Resources Board, Bureau of Fire Prevention, Department of Health and PAGASA to cope with and address climate change impact. frequency of hot days and warm nights and a significant decrease of cold days and cool nights in the country. She likewise explained the trends in annual total rainfall within the same timeframe for areas like Northern and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Meanwhile, an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year passed the country during the period 1948–2003. Heavy downpours caused by tropical cyclones resulted in flooding in various areas in the Philippines. One major flooding occurrence took place in Ormoc in 1991. This Ormoc flashflood is considered one of the worst floods that hit the country, taking more than 5,000 lives due to continuous rain and heavy flooding. Realizing the urgency to act on the impact of climate change, the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC) has been tasked to act with urgency in addressing the issue of climate change, mitigate its impact, and adapt to its effect. ENSO As mentioned, ENSO is the term used by scientists to describe the irregular cycle of warming and cooling of sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean. While the warming and cooling disrupts the atmospheric heat balance and changes wind patterns mainly in the Pacific Ocean, the impact is observed in the region, including the Philippines, and in the whole world. El Niño is the warm phase while La Niña is the cold phase. As a whole, ENSO is associated with flood, drought, and other disturbances which may have global impact. Ms. Daisy Ortega, Senior Weather Specialist at PAGASA, enumerated the general influences of ENSO on the country’s climate. In her study The extreme climate events: implications for and coping with its impact in the Philippines,
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Ms. Ortega described El Niño as being characterized by extended dry season and early end of the rainy season. It has a weak monsoon activity, less tropical cyclones, and above normal sea surface temperatures. Simply put, it is a drier weather condition. La Niña, on the other hand, exhibits short dry season and an early start of rainy days. There is a strong monsoon activity, occurrence of more tropical cyclones, and below normal sea surface temperature. In both instances, the agriculture and fishery sectors are affected by low productivity and food shortage. Farmers and fishermen’s loss of income due to their effects become very damaging. Ms. Ortega raised several action programs to fight the impacts of ENSO. These are: a) pushing for preparedness in monitoring ENSO; b) capacity building in the relevant fields of ENSO and climate education and public awareness; c) facilitating the conduct of assessment and hazard mapping; d) improving the system of information and communication process; and e) promoting the use of long-range climate forecasts in agriculture and other sectors of the economy. To cope with such climate change impacts, Ms. Ortega also enumerated some risk management strategies which include: developing capabilities in the areas of climate monitoring and prediction; enhancing these capabilities with further technical assistance and training; continuously improving the weather/climate forecasting skills; and bridging the gaps between climate forecasts and the users of climate information such as decisionmakers, individuals, government agencies, and policymakers. Also highlighted in her presentation is the importance of partnerships and collaboration among government agencies such as the National Disaster Coordinating Council (tasked to implement the national framework for a comprehensive disaster risk management process), the Department of Agriculture, National Water Resources Board, Bureau of Fire Prevention, Department of Health, and PAGASA. CSM
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Adapting to climate-related disasters
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http://www.cdrc-phiil.com
ransferring temporarily to evacuation areas or to safer locations is the primary adaptation strategy of households affected by extreme climate events. This is the key response cited in the study on Households and community adaptation to climate-related disasters, storm surges and flooding experiences” by Dr. Canesio D. Predo, Dr. Buenaventura B. Bargantes, and Dr. Herminia A. Francisco. 1 Dr. Predo presented the highlights of said study in a symposium on climate variability and change jointly sponsored by Bicol University and PIDS and held at the Bicol University in Legazpi City, Albay on September 30, 2009. The symposium is one of the out-of-town collaborative activities held in observance of the 7th Development Policy Research Month (DPRM) with the theme “Coping with Climate Variability and Change.” The DPRM is an annual celebration mandated by Malacanañg Proclamation 247 which aims to elevate people’s awareness and appreciation of the value of policy research for economic development and nationbuilding. In his welcome remarks during the symposium, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) President Josef T. Yap explained the reason for the choice of this year's DPRM theme on climate variability and change. According to him, today’s issues on climate change are very important and as stated in the 2009 Report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and 1
During calamities, hundreds of thousands of Filipinos are forced to leave their dwellings for safety. Evacuation areas serve as refuge for families that are constantly plagued with such disasters. Many stay for months or even longer because of the lack of livable place to transfer to.
Development (UNCTAD), climate change is the outcome of a gigantic market failure. “For example, think of a factory, a product is being made, you hire labor, you buy machines and then you pay wages to laborers. In order to buy machines, you have to borrow money and pay interests on that loan.
Dr. Canesio D. Predo is Assistant Professor at the Institute of Renewable Natural Resources, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños and formerly with the faculty of the Visayas State University when this study was done. Dr. Buenaventura D. Bargantes is with the Institute for Strategic Research and Development Studies, College of Agriculture, Visayas State University. Dr. Herminia A. Francisco is with the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia, IDRC, Singapore.
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September - October 2009
UNICEF Philippines/2006/ Fortin In 2006, millions of properties and thousands of lives were lost in the devastating mudslide in Guinsaugin Village, St. Bernard, Leyte.
But some factories and producers also use the environment. They pollute the environtment but they do not pay anything,� Dr. Yap said. The PIDS President likened climate change to the use of slave labor in the earlier times when labor was free and workers were often exploited. Had workers been paid, they would have only been utilized for a specific number of hours to minimize the costs. But since their services were free, the labor manpower were exploited. This is the same principle for the use of the environment. The environment is used but no one pays nor is taxed for its use. Hence, the result is that it is abused. Dr. Yap noted that developing countries today face the challenge of possible tradeoffs between their policies for development and poverty reduction against policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. He then talked about the joint program being conducted under the auspices of the Millennium Development Goal Achievement Fund titled Strengthening the Philippines’ institutional capacity to adapt to climate
change. According to him, the people behind the program are looking at different measures on how the Philippines can adapt to climate change. He cited the involvement of the province of Albay, the venue for this day's seminar, and said that Albay is the only province involved in the joint program. He said that Albay is known for its advanced disaster preparedness and management and planning programs. Other agencies involved in this undertaking to look at policies to adapt to climate change are the National Economic and Development Authority, and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, among others. Main study On his part, Dr. Predo presented the highlights of a 3-month study of five countries, including the Philippines, which aimed to identify the adaptation behaviors of and the adaptations implemented by households and communities in areas affected by disasters in Ormoc, Hinundayan, and St. Bernard, Leyte. The study also aimed to document the experience of the community and households and sought to determine their perception, preparedness, and planned adaptations for potential threat posed by the climate change-induced rise in sea level. To do this, a survey was conducted in three cities wherein 141 households were interviewed. Manifestations of the climate-related disasters in the study areas were in the form of flash floods caused by typhoon Uring in 1991 in Ormoc City and exc essive and continuous heavy downpour and storm surge that caused flooding in Hinundayan and St. Bernard in 2006. Results The study results showed the perception of households on climate-related risks before and after the disasters that took place in the areas studied. They also showed the decline in the overall state of natural resources and the impact on the well-being of households as a result of the disasters. And while the natural resources in Ormoc
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS
were not significantly affected by the flashflood, resources in St. Bernard and Hinundayan significantly decreased, particularly the water supply and rice fields. Awareness Households were asked on their awareness in terms of the general climate change phenomenon; rise in sea level; and the risk and threats from natural disaster. About 94.3 percent of those interviewed were aware of the climate change phenomenon. Dr. Predo attributed this to the power of mass media wherein many people have learned of such information from watching television. Majority of the respondents (89.4%) were aware of the phenomenon of rising sea levels. At the same time, 93.6 percent of those interviewed, particularly in Leyte, were aware of the risks and threats from natural disasters. This is because Southern Leyte is resting on a fault line and people intermittently experience earthquakes in the area. Vulnerability Vulnerability is the perception on exposure to hazard and the amount of exposure the households imagine they have if the disaster comes given their circumstances and economic and physical conditions. The study tried to look at the respondents’ vulnerability in terms of flooding. It tried to relate their vulnerability rating in terms of their different characteristics and found that those with bigger houses are more vulnerable to flooding. It is because bigger houses have more exposure to the hazards. On the other hand, availability of credit and financial grants for victims of disasters reduced vulnerability. Education has the same effect on vulnerability to rising sea level and this is attributed to campaigns that make people more aware of their situation and what they can do in any eventuality. Preparedness It is interesting to note that majority (96.5%) of those interviewed said that they are prepared for the possible threats due to natural disasters. However, when asked
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September - October 2009
what their preparations were, 88.7 percent indicated that they just follow the early warning system. These people prepare and get their bags ready, together with theit marriage contracts, certificates, and other pertinent documentation. Adaptation In order to minimize the impacts of climate-related disasters, 77.3 percent of the respondents affirmed that they have implemented adaptation measures. Topping the list of these measures are: transferring to evacuation areas temporarily (39.4%); restructuring housing units (37.6%); and improving dike systems or canals near places of residence (19.3%). Sources of these adaptation measures were indigenous knowledge, media, and the community. “There are three kinds of adaptation: accommodation, protection, and relocation. The respondents’ answers are just related to accommodation. These meant that when there are heavy floods, accommodation would refer to adding floors to a house. For protection, what it normally meant was that dikes are built. Relocation, on the other hand, brings the people to a safer area where they can restart their lives. It is a permanent solution,� Dr. Predo explained. Other findings The cost of monetary damage in Ormoc reached a total of PhP620 million and affected public infrastructure, fishery and livestock and commercial establishments. Around 5,000 people perished and 3,000 more were recorded missing. After the disaster, the government conducted rehabilitation works but they were only limited to the construction of dam-
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Household adaptation measures come from indigenous knowledge, media, and the community.... Relocation is the most important form of adaptation because it brings the people to a safer and permanent area where they can restart their lives.
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DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS
September - October 2009
13th PIDS Corner opens in Bicol University he Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) inaugurated its 13th PIDS Corner at Bicol University (BU) in Legazpi City on September 30, 2009.
T
It is the Institute's goal to promote the use of policy research for nation-building. As part of its extension service, the opening of a PIDS Corner in key areas across the country is a testament to its commitment.
Professor Jerry S. Bigornia, Bicol University Vice President for Production and Director for Auxiliary Services, said that having the PIDS Corner at the University is a momentous event since development policy research is severely lacking in the University as well as in the whole Bicol region. He added that the PIDS’ publications are good resources for the faculty and students.
Also present during the event were PIDS Research Information Staff Director Jennifer PT. Liguton; Dr. Edwin Martin, head of the Public Affairs Division; and teachers and students from the University.
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The Institute started to set up PIDS Corners in 2007. Since then, it has covered several key provinces in the country.DRN
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Adapting to ... from p.13 ○
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aged structures like bridges and dikes. Relief operations were also conducted to provide temporary relocation to those affected. Food, clothing, medicine, and other services were distributed and a damage assessment program was also conducted. Damage to property posted the highest impact (70.2%) on the households, followed by cases of illness (8.5 %) and loss of livelihood (7.8%). About half (46%) of the households experienced a huge loss/decline in their annual incomes, making it more difficult for the victims to recover. When properties are damaged and people perish, it is crucial to identify how victims cope after a disaster. In the study, majority of the respondents (41.8%) coped by using their family savings. Others took a loan from friends, relatives, or other persons (12.8%). Again, these are considered temporary relief.
Conclusions and recommendations To conclude, households’ most preferred adaptation strategy as based on their responses is to move temporarily to safer locations. They also restructure their houses to become more flood resistant. Permanent relocation, on the other hand, is the last priority. Households work individually on their adaptation strategies. However, Dr. Predo emphasized that disaster management should be a community action. Unfortunately, individual households and the community lack the confidence to work on cooperative solutions and depend more on the LGUs for their actions. The LGUs, on the other hand, are reactive in nature and focus on disaster relief rather than long-term plans and measures. In times of disasters, LGUs turn to declaring a state of calamity and releasing fund
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DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS
instead of using the funds before the disaster to help lessen the damages. This calls for a need to build the capacities of LGUs in terms of disaster management. In addition, it is important to use the country’s resources wisely by identifying areas at risk. Strategic planning for long -term adaptive responses and outcomes is also crucial. Designing and implementing engineering works and other adaptive measures are also needed. Policy intervention is needed in skills enhancement and livelihood development. It is common knowledge that lack
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September - October 2009
of sources of livelihood is one of the problems in relocation sites. As a result, relocated families continue to return to their former areas because of lack of employment and livelihood opportunities in their relocations areas. More importantly, the country’s resources are not enough. And with the current global economic crisis, adaptation plans have become more limited not only in the Philippines but also in the rest of the world. Thus,there is a need for the community, government, and other involved sectors to identify cost-effective adaptation measures. CSM
Coping ... from p.5 ○
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In this regard, it may also be good to involve traders on having an understanding of SCFs and their implications on the type and quantity of inputs to acquire and use. Another key issue is the matter of disseminating SCFs that constrained application of SCFs in farmers’ decision. In general, there has been a rather poor dissemination of SCFs resulting in farmers’ lack of access to such forecasts. SCFs are poorly disseminated because the language and format of presentation are difficult for farmers to understand and the SCF information provided to farmers are also limited. To address this problem, user-friendly formats should be used in disseminating such forecast information. Reacting to Dr. Predo’s presentation, Dr. Gavino Isagani Urizza, Supervising Agriculturist from the Soil Conservation Management Division, Bureau of Soils and Water Management at the Department of Agriculture, commented that the study on climate variability and climate change in agriculture is timely and innovative. “Climate change threatens food production, employment, and incomes. The country must be ready for and can adapt to it. Skillful SCF information could become important to corn farmers’ production decision,” Dr. Urizza stressed. In particular, the use of SCFs gives farmers in rainfed agriculture greater
ability to manage risks brought about by climate variability and change. It also helps to improve profits because of better crop decisions. Hence, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of effectively using SCFs in the decisionmaking process. However, Dr. Urizza pointed out that efforts must also be geared toward enabling the farmers to use SCFs by conducting thorough information dissemination, providing more means of accessing SCF information (e.g., farmers on-the–air broadcasts), and laymanizing technical information.
Concluding remarks There is no doubt that SCF is a vital tool that can help the Philippines cope with climate variability and change. Its optimal use, as pointed out in the discussions, lies on effectively communicating it especially its nature of uncertainty as presented in probabilities of occurrence, to influence farming decisions. With the pressing issues brought about by the changes in climate, it is important to note that “science” should be delivered to people who need it the most, in the manner and form that they are able to understand. In a broader perspective, skillful use of vital information can help to minimize, if not totally mitigate, the crippling effects of climate change and climate variability on the economy and lives of Filipinos. CSM
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DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS
STAFF BOX
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS Vol. XXVII No.5
Editorial Board: Dr. Josef T. Yap,
September - October 2009
President; Mr. Mario C. Feranil, OIC
ISSN 0115 - 9097
Vice-President and Director for Project
September - October 2009
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH NEWS is a bimonthly publication of the PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES (PIDS). It highlights the findings and recommendations of PIDS research projects and important policy issues discussed during PIDS seminars. PIDS is a nonstock, nonprofit government research institution engaged in long-term,
Services and Development; Ms. Jennifer P.T. Liguton, Director for Research
policy-oriented research. This publication is part of the Institute's
Information; Ms. Andrea S. Agcaoili,
program to disseminate information to promote the use of research findings. The views and opinions
Director for Operations and Finance;
expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. Inquiries
Atty. Roque A. Sorioso, Legal Consult-
regarding any of the studies contained in this publication, or any of the PIDS papers, as well as suggestions
ant.
or comments are welcome. Please address all correspondence and inquiries to:
Staff: Jennifer P.T. Liguton, Editor-in-
Research Information Staff
Chief; Ma.Aileen A. Garcia, Issue Edi-
Philippine Institute for Development Studies
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Fifth floor, NEDA sa Makati Bldg., 106 Amorsolo Street, Legaspi Village
Quion, Writers; Jane Alcantara, Ma.
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notice.
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Ednotes ... from p.1 ○
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ries ago. This is, of course, the crisis of global
ering experts and other stakeholders together
climate change or more popularly known as
for a broad-based discussion and planning of
global warming. Given that the process of warm-
strategies to address climate change, the DPRM
ing which has been aggravated by human ac-
discussions hope to increase people’s aware-
tivity, has been going on for centuries, its effects
ness and sensitivity to the issue of climate
are said to be irreversible.
change and encourage them to become part of the solutions rather than of the problems to cli-
Still, there is hope as adaptation and mitigation
mate change.
policies and programs have begun to be espoused and put in place by governments all
Beginning with PIDS’ symposium on the use of
over the world to help assuage the impact of
seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) as tools for
the warming of planet Earth: droughts, rising
farmers’ decisionmaking in their planting sched-
sea levels, and extreme climate variability.
ule, choice of crops to plant, etc. based on the prediction of the climate in the coming season,
In this regard, for this year, the Philippine Insti-
the rest of the out-of-town DPRM fora were
tute for Development Studies (PIDS) chose the
meant to focus on the role and contributions of
theme “Coping with climate variability and
individuals, households, and communities in
change “ for its annual celebration of the Devel-
mitigating, adapting to and coping with the ef-
opment Policy Research Month (DPRM). Gath-
fects of climate change and variability.
DRN