Comparative Advantage and Government Price Intervention Policies in Forestry

Page 1

PHILIPPINE I_ISTITUTEFOP DEVELOPMFNT STUDIES l_lorking Paper 83-05 COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ANDGOVER_.,!ME:_T _ICE.INTERVENTIONPOLICIES .If! FORESTRY by John H. Power and Tessie D.....Tumaneng


COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND GOVERNMENT PRICE INTERVENTION POLICIES IN FORESTRY

by

John H. Power and Tessie

I.

D. Tumaneng

iIntroduct.$gn

Porast

resources

years with

the traditional

of great importance environmental especially

earnings.

countryVs

product

earners;

external

efficient

the government efficiency

l_ks

the

together_Ith

flows, which

to the forelgn as well

focus:is.on

the

reforestation

they havebeen

countries,

challenges

or savlng

and forest

the

constitutes

presently

the country

to find

exchange.

for promoting foreign

domestic

protection,

faces

and slow growth

forelgn

as for attracting of

among

product.

trade sector

promotion

foreign

c0mblnedoutput

with high o11 prices

means of earning

and growth,

from their

substantial

net domestic

developing

environment,

trade and capltal

additional

forestry,

llke most

and other

on tlgerproducts,

arises

and their

and their

about five per cent of the natlon_s

in world

products

For the last 30 years

The Phillpplnest

Although

and veneer.

of these timber

top ten dollar

a dlfflcult

of watersheds

has been centered

plywood

to the national

over the

that they are inexhaustible.

attention

logss lumber,

contribution

view

have been utilized

for their protection

values,

The Importance

exchange

in the Philippines

economic

capital.

processing as means

long-run

capaclty

to earn and save foreign

In

of wood, of enhancing e

the sector's

Thus,

exchange.


--

The

production

of

forest

2--

8oods

and services

of forest land and trees, but also Of labor, forestry

sector

competes

with other

resources. _ It is important, resource use. social

opportunity

objective

of

cost

the

saving,

foreign

(1979)

has

in

The efficiency

out,

open

economy

exchanse

can

be

ectlvity.

converted

less

than

In

addition

activities,

it

on

these

other

..

to is

judging

assess:the

'

to

transform one, not

sector

powerful '.. ,

and pervasive

the

on

affects

foreign

is

the

possible

and

vice

in pesos

exist

and

in effect,

of opportunity economic

indicated

if

the

exchanKe.

impact

Of forest of

In

price

this

sector

government

advantageous

versa.

goods

a particular is

through

a socially

tradable

represents,

efficiency

assess

as Bautiata

distortions

activity

of

(e.g,..export

tradable of

only

sector

tax

effects forest

government or

• of

export

the

products.

specific

policies.

policies ban

policies

intervention

activity connection

tariff In many

specific on

loss)

system instances

the

or

and

into we

a primust

..

forestry

pOliCy

it

of

in

earning and,

for

throush

that

relative

to

For

effects

,..

the

important

measured

for

of

a measure;

policy

'exchanse

The

a 8iven

cost

The DRC measure

foreign

only

can be measured by

achieve

relevant trade

not

its efficiency

resource

foreign

price

to

•such

resources,

shadov

activities.

.

where

advantage

unattractive

• .

particularly

is

into

the

policies

vately

it

domestic

Comparative

DEC is

represents

use

and management.

activity

used

(DRC)

is deemed scarce.

the rate at which cost

resources

the

its use of these

to assess

The domestic

exchanKe

in

of an economic

the

activity.

pointed

a small,

foreign

Of

capital

sectors

therefore,

entails

and

to but

.the

also

exchange these

can

the. rate tramp


-3-

Accordingly, tage

of the

lumber

and plywood,

of

resources

2.

Policies

interests.

total

forest

of

the

and regulations

ciples

of sustained

forest Angeles,

the

such as

quantify

the protactio:

(2)

co.pare,lye,

by government

forestry

advan-

policies;

results

logs,

and

and suuest

the efficiency

oÂŁ allocation

sector.

night

1981).

managed jointly

the

forests;

enterprises

their

hecearee,

management

and selective

led

estimated been

to

as hlgh

which

In 1979 which

the

'ltinber

during

the

as 200,000

the

charges is

logging.

the diminution

that

system

under

and pay cutting

to implement

owned,

is

the about

area. concessions

Nominally,

8 have

have

million

and private

publicly

a licensing renewals.

land

forest

are

including

was 8.26 total

by public

which

through

government;

yield

It has been

are

of

removed.

louin

loss

products

maximum tenure,

and failure

selective

forest

to improve

resources

country's

of

of timber

1979).

the

manage

volume

of

help

under license

" The licensees

overcutting

major

from the elpirical

to private

area

cent

the

and Performance

a S0-year

land

assess

activities

The exploitation

for

26 per

on these

to and within

delegated

allows

(1)

the DRC criterion;

that might

Philippine

are

using

iiplications

measures

to:

aims

in producing

conferred

draw policy

policy

study

Philippines

or penalty (3)

this

based

supervision based

on the prin-

In practice, stand of 1970s

hectares

however,

improvement

the forests the

on the

annual

phase"

(Revilla, rate

(Sesura-de

of los


-4-

The consequences land

erosion,

his

argued

through

view

would

this

not

be

benefits

appears

inadeq-scy

inadequate cation,

land

of

to

be

forest

&ovemment

for violations

in

productive of

at

the

to

crop

management

clogging To reverse

forest

unproductive expense

general

of

irrigation

this

process,

could

almost

systems, Revilla

double

over

and brush.

agriculture,

production

include

of

grasslands

but

through

agreement

management supervision

In

indeed

renewing

plywood. practices,

This

comparative Considerin&

concessions,

presents advantage

the

one m/ght

those methods

logging

the implication

methods.

external

readily

a number los

and

of

and

incomplete

land

in

the

social

conclude

is not comparatively

efficient s problem

production costs

advantageous.

interest

rates,

charges. of for_t

pro-

or socially in

assessing

of

logs,

associated

that production

as a penalty

short run

with high

is that the production

by the most

classifi-

of l_censes

and low cutting

for

1981):

of regulations),

combined

us with

reasons

Angeles,

(plus cancellation

ducts has not been accomplished

Philippines'

(Segura-de , biased

selective

small~sized

In any case,

desiEable

on

in lieu of finn enforcement

of implementlng

uneconomically

with

floods,

croplands,

too short a lease term

costs

of

forest

watersheds.

There the

net

sub-optimal

of

conversion

would

provide

extending

that the

of

frequency

productivity

has

mainly

years

increasing

and decreasing (1980)

of

with

of those

the lumber

and

past products

40

years,


- 4a

That

is,

industry

foreign

has been achieved

environment. measures. among

exchange

earnlng

•Rather it reflects and private

Should we then conolude advantage

in forest

appears

forest

product of the

back with quantitative consensus

The implication

does not have a comparative

would

and transferred

be that resources

to other more comparatively

The prlncipalresource,

of course,

it to other

crops would

is land; but only make

worse.

Alternatively,

the implication

be halted completely. forestry

as simply

replanting

the harvesting

bordered

by estimating

of sustained

consensus

resource

costs

the government

and enforce

well

This means

that we

.sustained yield methodology

are assessing

yield

activity

forestry.

of foreign will

economically

advantage

should of for

Past practices

and, as noted

that this_not

a sustained

forest activities.

below.

the economic

comparative

heroicassumptlonthat reasonably

views

that logging

Of trees, with no consideration

to assessing

domestic

be simply

on "mining' I the forests;

there seems to be a general our approach

might

This, however,

and ot_er aspects

have, perhaps,

In

the

to be a general

that the Philippines

to take land out of trees and devote matters

in

experts;

products?

activities.

saving

that we cannot

what

should be taken out of forestry advantageous

and

at far too high a cost in degradation

This is a judgement

government

-

above, advantageous.

in •forest products

exchange,• we have made

the

in future be able to supervise

yleld

the potential We return

management comparative

of the forests. advantage

of

to this in the section

on


-

Policies.

5

-

Comparative advantage depends on relative social costs and

benefits, but actual performance of an industry depends on private costs and gains, including the effects of government policies on these. c/pal policies, management,

in addition

to the licensing

are the cutting

charges,

export

and supervision

The prln-

of forest

taxes, and the export

quota

on logs.

Forest

tlmberto

Charges.

the licensees.

forest charges

to

be the selling

extension

imposed

to finance

services,

In 1981 these were consolidated

research

nonetheless,

been

the trend of forest steadily

of

down

since

various

activities

and forest protec-

into fees of _30/m 3 and FlS/m 3,

respectively, for two broad species group. While stantial increase,

price

Before 1981, they consisted of the regular

and other charges

such as reforestation, ion.

These are considered

charges

these represent a sub-

as ad valorem

the 1950s.-Even

two rates represents only about 4.4 per

rates has,

the higher

of the

cent of the wholesale price of

logs in 1981, as compared to an average of 6_3 per cent in 1956-59_.* Prior

to the consolldatlonand

rate had fallen

increase

in 1981, the average

ad valorem

to less than two per cent.

*By 1983 forest charges were between five and slxper value, owing to the lower prices of logs.

cent Of log


5a

Total revenues while

8overnment

from forest

expenditures

1974, as can be seen expenditures almost will

I.

however,

include

and income

roughly

the 1970s

increased

substantially

first half

of the decade

matched,

while

the former

rose to

Even the 1981 increase These

taxes, as well

after

in rates

revenues

do not.

as sales_ property

taxes.

Export

taxes were

other major exports,

the devaluatlon

of the peso.

the rate on lumber_ dity prices the export

level over

far short of expenditures.

those from export

Export Taxes. along with

remained

In the

slx times the latter by 1979.

leave revenues

several

charges

on ÂŁorestry

in Table

and revenues

-

plywood

While

years export

in 1970 on wood products,

as a stabillzstlon

The rate on logs and veneer.

in the mid-1970s, tax.

imposed

a premium

the original

to generate

10 per cent,

temporarily

was

to phase

they were

revenue.

are 20 per cent for logs, four per cent for lumber for plywood.

accompanying double

the boom in world

duty was

taxes on all products,

•pres,-..bly for their capacity

was

During

intention

measure

commo-

added

to

out over

instead

The present and veneer_

retained, rates and zero


-

The Export Quota. a desire forest

to encourage

destruction.

The policy

6

on log export

wood processlngt On May

as well

January

and the alleged

that the domestic

cessed

products

sluggish

which

condition.

allow log exportation

unreadiness

market would

the foreign Hence,

allowlng

taken

not take due to suspend

and limited

ing 25 per cent of the total allowable ban was to have

could

basis.

for a total cut.

effect.

earnings plants

it was pre-

not be able to absorb

market

on a selective

exchange

In addition

for a

to the ban

of the processing

size.

PD 865 was issued

1979' FD 1159 was implemented

a complete

from

the rate of

Opposltlon

of the foreign

of less than economic

dlcted

as to reduce

It 1976.

has been aired owing to the importance

which were mostly

ban arose mainly

19, 1975, PD 705 was issued providing

total log export ban effective

from log exports

-

the proto its

the ban and On June

11,

log export not exceed-

Finally,

on May

It 1982,


-7-

Table 1.

ExpendituresI

Revenues 2

1970

66,514

67,247

1971

51,668

72,486

1972

61,105

65,780

1973

71,373

91,489

1974

65,314

115,639

1975

105,838

95,835

1976

235,536

100,770

1977

215,139

75,259

1978

270,625

73,119

(est.)

356,903

61,548

1980 (est.)

394,501

1979

I

Goverument Forestry Revenues and Expenditures 1970-I979 (in _000 at current prices)

Principally by the Bureau of Forest Development. fÂŁscal years, while 197.6-1979are calendar years.

1970-1975

are

2 Principally from forest charges and inspection fees.

(Fiscal years)


-

The quota limitations

countries. • Table

data from Japan for1977-80,

cent of Philippine

-

have not at all been effective

by the trade data from impozting with

8

during

which

as is evidenced

2 illustrates

Japan

took about

this 75 per

log exports.

JL,,

Table

Hardwood

Year

Quantlty

1977 1978 1979 1980

1,522,112 1,616,047 985,450 502,458

to Japan,

(i_000 cu. met.)

Phil. data

(I)

Log Exports

2

Japan

data

(2) 1,614,488 1,754,952 1,342,741 1,119,451

(1)/(2) .943 .921 .734 .449

1977-80

Value

(i,000 us $)

Phil.

data

(3) 124,455 131,993 132,130 78,105

Japan

data

(4) 138,131 158,579 206,812 203,962

(3)/(4) .901 .832 .639 .383


-

While

the reporting

Japan's

reporting

greatly

in the next

Growth output

and exports.

While

exchange

1980 what

the overall

declined

in physical

from almost

wood products

under-reportlng

economic

output

we could

growth.

shrinking

declined

of

not contriWhile

GNP

wood products

(in 1972 prices) of wood

were

3.5

products In value

as a share of total exports Even

if we could

of log production

as a stagnant

rapid

hardly

sector

Actual

of agricultural

What elements the processing

management

and export

correct

for

in 1980,

in the Philippine

eco-

growth.

demands

Even with

ideal

for forest

output to keep up with overall

practices,

base.

the competing

have,

It should

tripled

of course,

be noted,

led to a

however,

that

over the same two decades,

owing

in yields.

of dynamism

of logs.

population

crops almost

increases

given

expect forest

of the forest resource

to substantial

and growth have been present

This is revealed

and export of logs, lumber growth

products-have

in terms

over the same period.

is not surprising,

land that accompany

management,

increased

reduced.

importance

exports

to

remain.

This, of course, scarce

exports

by one-thlrd

the image of forest products

sharply

of the major

20 per cent to eight per cent.

the substantial

nomy would

output

in 1960, while

volume

(U.S. dollars)

forest

close

the discrepancy

growth of the economy.

Total

they were

were

was reasonably

the continuing

earnings,

by only one-third.

tlmesln

terms

exports

in !977 and 1978,

over the past two decades,

increased

-

two years when quotas

buted slgnificantlyto tripled

of Philippine

of imports

and foreign

9

in Table

and plywood/veneer

of output and exports

3where

are shown

of the processedproducts

are found

in

the production

for 1959-80. stand Insharp

The


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- II -

Table.4.

Historical prices of log, lumber and plywood, 1955 : 1980.

: PRICE OF LOGS-1/ ,

1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980

(_ ./m 3 ):

.L_esa__/: 54 67 63 60 64 77 89 88 97 102 102102 111 126 131 150 188 199 251 354 304 347 430 456 550 676

PRICE OF LLI_BER (_ [. I_.P):

: Wholesaler_.; 45 41 40 40 43 50 --1_)" 98 85 93 99 86 99 150 165 157 270 311 267 441 490 490 946 990

205 228 217 186 186 186 241 240 258 286 290 297 232 359 370 404 487 522 611 917 793 I091 1.550 1645 1986 2728

Export 213 226 253 183 251 123 --432 --413 515 571 557 547 567 697 778 958 ,' 1434 1678 1825 2362 1550 2363 3411 4022

PRXCE O1' PLX'WOOD(_II_S! . Wholesale=.. 680 680 670 610 700 600 570 780 800 800 980 980 980 980 I010 1180 1260 1200 1820 2624 3120 3270 -24_6, 2540 5705' 6355

Price of white lauan logs Wholesale price _/

ex-Manila

Export price is FOB converted into pesos by multiplying by the official exchange rate.

Sources:

Central Bank Bureau of Forest Development. 1976 & 1980. Phil; ForesC._y Statistics PREPF Technical Paper Nos. 3:4,5 World Bank. 1980. Price prospects for Ma$or Primary Co_noditles.

484 484 409 - = " '771 682 --!014 1059 20 780 820 900 1010 1420 1160 !230 _820 2500 2180 2830 3108 3390 4720 3610


-12-

contrast

to the picture

far short of overall at a pace only mainly

for logs,

GNP growth,

slightly

Still while

ahead of GNP.

by stagnation

of lumber output

output of plywood Moreover,

in the 1960s and early 1970s.

characterized

the growth

and veneer

grew

this growth occurred

The latter half of the 1970s

in wood processing,

fell

accompanying

is

a decline

in log production. Again,

we must be cautious

the likelihood duction. exports

of substantial

tightened,

1978, this represented sharp increases

Economic

Analysis

a broad and complex tions.

Here

The pollcy

quota,

a sharp

increase

because

of

and pro-

in lumber

at the end of the decade

output of lumber declined

after

in response

to

in 197g and 1980 (see Table 4),

Policies

policies

system of controls,

affecting

regulations

intervention

forestry

represents

and price

policies;

interven-

and a number

are made.

instruments

on logglng

(4) export

of Forestry

assumptions

of log exports

to the export market

the focus is on price

of simplifying

latlons

Since

price

set of government

these figures

in log exports

a diversion

in the export

The whole

suggests

with a decline

as lo8 export quotas

3.

under-reporting

The table nonetheless together

in interpreting

considered

concessions, (5) export

land rent, and (7) sales tax.

are

(2) cutting

subsidy

(1) direct

controls

charges,

(3) export

on processed

wood

and regu-

products,

tax, (6) forest


- 13

The first aim of the government purpose

uses--

is to conserve

e.g., as watershed.

the area of logging

concessions

-

forest

for multi-

To this end, the government

and sets rules

limits

and regulations

regarding

their use. In addition,

we set a number

respect

to the forestry

society

and economic

industry.

rents*

who owns the forest.

of other Fist,

from

but this is the only one considered in this regard communities

is the question

and their access

which warrants foreign

separate

exchange

consistent

with

raise revenue with respect

for forest to forestry

distribution,

foreign

Associated effects

with

of policies

assumption

made

log production were

administration. policies

exchange

conservation could be very

or export

and revenue

complex

also are the questions,

benefits

and costs,

price

had decided

*By economic rents we mean returns elsewhere, adjusted for risk

aim to promote that this is

Third,

intervention

of the government

to conservation,

to quantify.

policies

of The basic

land.

decisions--both

If it

such as

as we shall

of forestry

what

income

to limit and regulate

logs are cut, which

beyond

it should

the area of forest

of the effects

these various

issue

goals and the analysis

limit production_ where

in the forest

raising.

and difficult

or augment

taxes could

Since many

to relate

are multiple

question,

to the extent

In sum, the goals

here is that the government

and how they are cut. external

earnings

should

advantage.

are assumed

omission

This is a major

the government

of comparative

in order to conserve

charges

But important

Second,

to consider;

serious

of the people

resources.

for

it is society

goals

An especially

from forest products

simply a quantitative

cutting

to forest

the principle

since

income d_stribution

here.

with

aim to capture

conces%ions,

of the livelihood

study.

earnings

it should

logging

There are other

aims for government

see below.

logs are cut,

activity

involve

quantitative

and

investments

would

yield


-

qualitative--cannot addition

concessions

locetlon,

the government

regarding

their use.

direct

controls

arrangements

must,

of forest

can, however,

reinforce

and regulations.

private

exporting

incentives

to forest

10gs or processed

of foreign

demand.

Thus,

in

their

set rules and regulations that operate

through

(and, in turn, be reinforced

by)

Moreover, ••there can be institutional

the granting

between

forces.

land, and determining

of necessity,

of concessions

and social

The question, offoreignexchange • the overall

market

Price Interventionpollcles

surrounding

complementarity

-

be left solely to private

to limiting

marketincentlves

14

is also complex,

exports,

wood products,

These will be given

promote

interests.

earnings

product

that would

the choice

and the optimum

special

attention

involving

between,.

exploitation in the analgsis

that follows. i.

Direct

Controls.

on cutting. limitation

We describe on output

latlonsmust demand price

pertain

(D)and

supply

(Pw) as given.

is also

the domestic

in contrast

This refers

to limits

this graphically

inFigure

at Q*, though we noted to more

on concessions

than just the

and regulations

I simply as a

in the introduction level of output.

Domestic

(S) curves are shown; and we initially In the absence of price.

Domestic

price

intervention

that regu-

take world

policies

use is QD and exports

to the level QF - QD' which •would obtain without

•this

are Q* - QD' controls.


_ 1•$-

The results of•this policy can be .listedas follows: I)

The conservation goal is met, if the control on output is met together with the qualitative goals.

2)

Foreign

:3)

Ifwe

exchange assume

necessary

that

•there

equal

to

intra-marginal

4)

There

is

5)

Users

are

are

lower.

S represents

profits,

production, are

earnings

are

the

rents

uo government unaffected.

long-run excess

distaac_, that

are

supply

profits ac; not

and,

price,

at

includin8

the marSin

in addition,

captured

for

of there

society.

revenue. There

isno

promotion

of processing,

(The implicationsof this are considered below). 6)

Since Pw is assumed to be given, the

quest_ol_

tation of world demand does not arise. p

S'

Pw Pa

V--

o

i/-

qD

-,x o

Q*

Figure

QF

1

of optimum exploi-


- 16 -

Cutting charges is

Charges.

can be represented

represented

in Figure

The world, price, to meet

the qualitative

itself,

would Q*.

(if

principal

PwacPn

constrain

(net

of

of a cutting

differences

charge)

to

charge

This

from S co S_.

and there are direct

the

desired

concessionaires

is

differ

to

controls

acp taken by conservation Pu"

from those of direct controls

in some respects

that there

is government

they ere similar. revenue

output

is eliminated

is an ad valorem

tax on exports

and that rent on marginal

of cut logs.

by the distance,

output

ways, though are

cutting

goals.

charge, •represented

The price

that various

in the supply curve

taken as given

conservation

in a number of i_0rtant The

i as a shift

effective)

The effects

it is assumed

by e tax per t_ait of output

Pw, is again

Thus, a cutting

level,

Fo_ simplicity

equal

so that

to

total

rent is reduced. _.

This

in Figure

2 (similar

to Figure

1) by the difference

as given) and Pn (price net of export

tax).

between

We are assuming

P

•,.d

e ....

a

b_

I

II

'° "--tT-'l•

,

'

I 1 ' o ............. •

_

.

_..

QD Q_ Qs

I

.

l

s

"DI |

Q* QF Figure

2

and is represented

q

Pw

(still taken

competition,





- 20-

jS

•' -

..,

./

t

s

. /'

Pd

+

|

o

,

m

-_--

QD Q, _' ,-, '_E Q,• QT

,.

q

Q6 Figure.• 3

As above,

in

the

analysis

of ,the effects

of an export

lose (area PoabPd), government gains (area PwcdPd), and users PoefPd).

tax,

producers

gain (area

But in this case the tax is not .adistortion but a correction

of a distortion -~ the gap between Pd and MRw that would exist in the absence of the optimum export tax. use of logs is MRwp not world price.

For the opportunity cost of domestic While users gain, this means that

they no-longer have to pay for logs in excess Of their opportunity cost, Hence, a bias against processing is removed. The fact that producers lose is immaterial if other policies are properly in place -- cutting charges plus•direct controls torestrlct output•to the desired level and achieve other conservation goals•,plus •

some means of capturing

a

intramarginal rents (for this,,

see below).•


- •21 •-

The price producers export

receive

represents

the real

social value

of their

sales.

'

The above analysis

atomistic

competitors,

retaliation

Capturing

forest

land.

attract

What

policies,

the most

This

have little

tend to eliminate to do with

should be considerably .some hardwood rights

longer

for cutting

tition,

hire the cutting

bidding

(Howe,

1979,

p.

areas;

and transport 234).

intr--_rginal

over

But

level of

rents

the

forests,

which

might

present

for concession but thisuay

government

maturation

w)uld

period for

Could;auction

sure of effective

of logs to a market

some

of

intact.

mean

legal,

to

government say

the compe-

for competitive emnagement ,t

of

to be

intervention

bidding

60-year

or, to be

this

to

_he llfe of a lease, which

than the roughly

in specified

by price

excess-profits,

the

goals

of logs is bound

.Competitive

Alternatively,

above

tax, is the elimination

leaving

returns

the other

for the target

output

anticipated

realized

species.

needed

and an export

analyzed

to those just necessary

accomplished

is not easy to accomplish_

leases would

is the

from use of public

to meeting

profits

than can be

(rent) at the margin,

is relevant

rents

supply prlceof

charges

the Philippines

None of the policies

and entrepreneurship

like cutting

profit

Rents.

is to limit

Since the long-run

is no

may be very high.

is desired,• in addition

the capital

upward-sloping,

which

are

and that there

power

What

the private, intramarginal

in the analysis,

output.

excess

of demand,

that exporters

price •as given;

How much monopoly

Intra_arginal

to capture

included

assumptions

log trade is an open question°

elastlclty

is able

taking world

from the world.

has in world long-run

has implicit

nothing

of


administrative, a number present

problems.

(It should be noted,

of li.censes have been an opportunity

Given

experiments

system of licensing,

land would seem to be a logical from the licensees.

instrument

cycle (Howe,

financial

problem

This could

along

these lines).

the property for capturing

It has two disadvantages,

based on the value of the timber stand, cutting

that recently

revoked " for violations.

for government

the present

however,

however.

it might

1979, p. 231).

Second,

for new and young

forests;

tax

on forest

economic First_

if its is

tend to shorten

an annual hence,

rents

the

tax presents

it might

a

discourage

planting

Promoting needed because

Processing.

The promotion

of the bias against

protection

system

(Power,

exportable

and most are already

system

in the •Philippines

market

over exports

undervaluation would require A direct cessed wood

it •that comes Virtually

being

favors industries

processing

an export subsidy

exchange

subsidy

wood products The industrial

of this order of magnitude

optimum

described

remedy

system

protection

to the export

(assuming

An export

second •best.

the

defends

(Medalla,

1980). of

pro-

infinitely

tax on logs beyond

above could also be used as a means

but this would be definitely

is

are

Just to overcome

of 20 to 30 percent

world de,m_nd for these exports).

logs

that sell only in the domestic

that the protection

would be the ideal

Of

from. t.he industrial

all

exported.

elastic

cessing,

the

by a very substantialmargin.

of foreign

products

1979).

•of

of promoting

the

pro-

The same is tr_e of a


- 23-

quota

or ban.

cost.

The

Moreover,

which would

price

an export

logs tax

only by accident

ble for one instrument (optimum

of

output

be

or a quota

put

below

its

has

an output

meet the conservation

(export

limitation,

would

social limitation

target.

tax or qu_,ta) to achieve

optimum

export,

opportunity

and optimum

effect

It is impossi-

three

targets

promotion

of pro-

cessing).

0primal

Set of Policies.

Given

is likely

that an equal number

represent

an optimal

First,

set.

to capture

tive private

biddin&

the number of different

of different

What would

private

in combination

it would

these be7

rents,

for logs should

policies

goals,

government

management

be established.

with

competi-

An alternative

would

I

be a system

of land taxes.

Second,

an export

tax on exports level.

be

to

estimates

rate of implicit

subsidize

protection would

from the protection

Given likely

existing

tax should

log

might

receive

an even

same implicit

the higher

limitation

met via direct controls the export

That

achieve

is,

optimal rate

would

demand

the

of

implicit tax.

subsidy,

target and other charges.

government

revenue

export

and the high

from

Processed

have high&z.world

the implicit

policy might

tax

since

with

the optimum

elasticity

the optimal

export

and cutting

tax would yield

system,

of world

tax and, presumably,

The output

together

tax on exports,

exports.

exceed

be set which,

they

industrial

wood are

actually

products

subject

to

the

demand elasticities.

conservation The latter,

goals

should be

together

with

for forest administration,


To set a target revenue

for such

would require

Promotion a direct

revenue

another

policy

of processing

subsidy,

designed

other

than this determined

instrument

as noted

above

to overcome

-- e.g.,

amounts

general

should be achieved

the in,licit

of

taxation. through

tax from the protection

system. In sum, instruments

to meet

four major

I)

Conservation:

2)

Income

bidding

export

Foreign

Revenue

any shortfall Note

exchange

combined with

(capturing

earnings

charges

for forest

from forest

that cutting

is.illustra_ed

of private

consistent

charges

in Figure

direct controls.

rents);

w_th

competitive

comparative

for conservation.

is limited --

serves

to creating now r_

and

P_.

general

advantage:

plus export

taxation

taxes minus

where

that would

S _ is above

achieve

(In the unllkely While

the cutting

the conservation the appropriate

S by the cutting level of

that Q* > q cutting

charges,

goal, the

wedge

tax) and this

Q*, the desired

event

to make up

subsidies.

are combined with an export

3 _bove)

per unit of output

controls,

administration:

charges

sidles would be required.)

prices

ins-

taxes and subsidies. 4)

direct

be four policy

goals:

forest charges

distribution

there would

for logs.

3)

output

in an ideal set of policies

together

with

role of the export

between

world

sub-

tax

and domestic


- 25 -

..

Existing

Policies

first-best approach we judge present Whatmight

be

the optimal

and

SecOnd-Best

to an optimal

policies

done

to

improve

present

there are direct

dies on some exports sales of processed

the instruments one exception,

products.

First,

above

a

How would

as

to

move

closer

to

however,

tion of processing

charges,

and sales

Hence_

aside

are currently

questions

export subsl-

taxes on domestic

is a land tax on forest

policy

Quotas

in use.

conceeeions_

Again, with

the rates

quotas on log exports,

until

have

and depressing

with

The latter,

logging, however,

of a quota allotment,

through

economical

domestic

this

of charges,

as an inept end , perhaps,

processing

for the

pro-

incentive to gain

to

the

to earn profits

This tie-in

costly means

are

is tied to the integra-

than primarily

processing.

is ready

to encourage

an additional

encourages

which

of limiting production,

price

of quotas

there is

rather

and efficient

the industry

the effects

since the granting

benefit

can, then be

of encouraging

processing. _t

Beyond

,

from the last, all of

are mainly

let us consider

ban.

price,

Moreover,

cutting

and their combination.

to be an interim

raising world

dismissed

policies.

qoutas on log exports,

products,

There

the important

complete

controls,

for 3ogs.

discussed

taxes and subsidies

processing.

policies_s_

products,

of processed

but no system of bidding

cessing.

set of forestry

represents

in the light af these same consideration?

taxes on logs and some processed

projected

The above

set?

At present,

considered

Reform.

that, the quota system

is revealed

as inferior

to direct

controls


•

I

-

and

cuttin

export

8 charges

tax

policies

as a means

have

government forest

the

to

revenue

right

and or

would

it

The present

the

in

to

and

demand.

as

inferior

These

revenue

from

taxation

general

to

an

alternative

contributing

Direct with

rules

to

the

to

administration

charges

could

Cutting

charges

also

government.

There

controls

goal_

in

the

Moreover, cannot

significant controls

the

serve amount

to

achieve

quota

about serve

help

to to

appears

finance

past

has

cutting

of

a quota

system.

(and

locating)

of

limit

be

conservation

to

is

cutting

of

trees.

and

reinforce

targets

is

of

against

concessions, These

together

revenue

that

the

in

meeting

so

low

with

the

in

real

goals

what

goals. to

the

administration

administration

perhaps

together

conservation

conservation

The weakness

promise

safeguard

feeling

become

that

administered.

not

contribute

effective have

is

and promote

widespread

charges

revenue.

rents

or the

for it

practices.

output

beeen

to

output

demand,

does

difficult

raises

said

it

limitations

forestry

not

effectively

limit

It

right

foreign be

is

reduce

to

could

it

includglimiting

cutting

of

that

form.

the

on how effectively

of

Moreover,

acute

accomplish

deslgnedto

depends

regulation

more

exploitation

policies

evasion

controls and

of

in

it

The best

do this

the

weakness

would

degree

other

respect. in

same

processing.

could

this

the

right

widespread

corruption

they

of

required

by accident

reinforce

How well

of

amount

S output,

fore_.gn

advantage

ban has only

subsidy

much

lindtin

exploiting

important the

of

-

administration.

limitation,

it

of

reduce

A complete no

as a means

26

lies

conservation terms or of

to

that raise

direct

behind

the

a


-27

urge

to

adopt

however,

is no

cutting

crude

substitute

po!icy

as

a ban

on log.

for strengthening

exports.

The Latter,

administration

and raising

charges.

As

noted above,

on other tion

such.a

_

major

the export

exports,

measure

to

depreciation.

was

accompany

system was continued

instituted

the

Originally

tax on logs,

floating

scheduled

to

along with similar

in

1970

as

of

the

be

phased

a so-called

peso

and out,

apparently

for the substantial

to

a rationale

stabiliza-

its the

taxes

subsequent export

tax

government

revenue

it

produced. It

is

not

easy

along these lines. tion of foreign exports.

With But

tuted.

Prior

exchange

foreign

tax

set

with

this

of rents.

Again,

would

in

set so as to achieve

we have

seen

at

the

same

i.t

is

,dud.

inferior

1970undervaluatms taxing log

export_axwas

is

no evidence

especially

promotion

when

that

the

we consider

to.cutting

rate the

system,

of processing

of heavy Second

and the capturing

that the rate of tax has been cons-

an optimal tax

substi-

We have seen above

from the industrial, protection

export

exports

for such a tax is the goal of optimum

there is no evidence

an

on log

rate disequilibrium

There

include

clously

above,

tax

in the first place?

demand.

tax on all exports

best justifications

a

of the peso an explicit

first best rationale of

implicit

from exchange

the floating

exploitation

for

to the •floating of the pesoln

why tax log exports

that the'only

hasbeen

provide

cannot

subsidy capture

charges

to processing. inttamarginal in raising

revenue.

And, as rents,

while


- 28 -

Nevertheless. cessing

and some means

a general subsidy

second-best

to

aome instances ever,

these

and

to

through

overcome

have

to

above,

the bias against

are export tection

the

general

products.)

five

years.

The first-best

wood

exports

at

that

is

by

to all exports,

liberalization

against

the

fall

protection

would

be

reform

undervaluation

of

system.

But

of tariff protection

the

beyond

in

How-

of

what

we have comes

is

noted from

wood products of tariff pro-

processed foreign

same

to exports

is why,

awarded

over the next four oz

subsidize

That

short (As

to

the principle

fiscal program.

far

all processed gradual

been

industry

but not disappear,

of

.some

is furniture).

in the forestry

rate

have

exporting.

the projected

and to extend

call for a massive

bias

and

since virtually

estimated

tax can serve as

products

(a_ example

solution

to pro-

some.,, rents, providing

wood

general

diminish,

subsidies

revenue.

been

processing

With

the bias will

defended

processed

not

exporting,

the

some

BOI incentives

needed

the bias against

of

direct

rents, am export

for capturing

raisins

exports

subsidies

first-best

of eliminating measure

processing

Subsidies

of

in the absence

exchange

argument

generally

of course,

the projected

applies would

a continuing

first phase

is

so essential. What

is ironic

taxes on processed

in this picture,

wood products:

It is not easy to believe these on top

that world

of the general

penalty

ho,_ever, is the existence

of export

lumber and veneer.* demand

elasticities

on exports.

could justify

An accurate

assessment ,i

would probably

*There

call

for some subsidy,

is no export

instead

tax on plywood

to offset

at present.

the latter.

But


-29

a

second-beat

at least

approach

include

that

if

goverrment

opti_al

set

of policies,

would

include: 1)

Removal

2)

Substantially

3)

Continuation

4.

effects

this

forestry

in

policies

to move at

the reform

on.lumber cutting

of

suuests once

is

to the

the present

system

and veneer; charges;

of an export

tax

control

forest

over

of

the study

activities, policies

on logs

without

export

quotas

administration.

are

including on these

policies

inthe

the positive

followed

the

light

and to preunt

of the

findings.

oÂŁ the study,

them out

comparative

to evaluate

processing,

act_vities,

aspects

in carrying

to assess

represent

the a

The first

and the methods the

subject

of

section, In an ideal

prices

tasks

represent

and procedures

forestry

or unvilling

taxes

vould

taxes. of

steps

policies

and

of government

two tasks

unnble

increased

of government

critique

export

industry

MethOdology.

The principal of

of forest

analysis

first

Strengthened

Research

advancaKe

is

of export

of a ban;

4)

of these

economic

the

or threat

to improvesmnt

re:oval

What the above

-

could

imporcant

world

be expected

qualifications

of perfect to reflect

markets social

where externalities*

and perfect costs are

information

and values, present.

subject

market to

In the real

*"Externalities" are elements of value that the market cannot capture.


- 30 -

world,

however,

costs_because to

or

of

taxes,

power,

market the

subsidies, as

well

shadow

presence

can

be either

positive

which

between

the

resources

"domestic

Protection domestic

may be

or

price

due

opportunity

to price

_ncentives

the various

we estimate

costs.

distortions

or d_sincentives and effective

activities,

which

can

resource port

coat"

(DRC).

(.NPR).

and border

created interventions

by

prices

tariffs,

of

policies.

pj

J

ere

CIP for imports),

are

costs of interna-

rate estimates.

thapEopottiQnal

a product.

discriminating

d

srRj

is

--

which

the opportunity

This

exchange

Border prices,

(FOB for exports,

to represent

Rate

the social opportunity

to earn or save foreign

traded goods in both DRC and protection

"wedge", other

social

these as the nominal

advantage,

at the domestic

Nominal

imperfections

or negative.

used in price comparisons tionally

opportunity

prices.

can represent

(NPR and EPR) accorded

cost of using domestic

world prices

or

cases,

market

social

restrtctions,.andmonopoly

such

to measure

To assess comparative

called

distortions

trade

from

reflect

is given in this study

We attempt

rates

commonly

market

In

diverge

policies,

protection

_ecessarily

controls_

attention

from government

of

externalities.

prices,

Particular

do not

price

as

to producers.

prices

This sales

difference difference

taxes,

quotas,

or


- 31 -

where:

pO. is domestic J

Pb is border price J

into account particular

commodity

j

of j expressed

in pesos

at the official

rate.

exchange

Effective

of

price

Protection protection

activity.

Rate

(EPR).

accorded

Thus,

This

to inputs,

it measures

measure

of

protection

as well as outputs,

protection

of value

takes of a

added.

Vd EPR

where

Vd is

added

at

rate).

value

border

with

estimates

prices

over, price quality. data.

Since

where

comparisons

Manila most

shipments

transport

(protected)

(in

domestic

currency

EPRs were

are directly

both

prices firms

to Manila

to Ranila

is

the

Vb is

official

in

this

value

exchange study,

but

in connection

policies.

at the same point

logging

at

1979) are reviewed

To be comparable

wholesale

prices.and

unddrtaken

et.al.,

of government

must be measured

I

domestic

of

Prices.

_-

vb

at

(Bautista,

the discussion

Domestic

m

prices

No new estimates

previous

for

added

=

to border

in the marketing

meaningful

represent

are

near

their

Moreover,

domestic chain.

More-

only for identical

the most

and to the world

required.

prices,

readily

own regional originate, it is

widely

available ports,

an adjustmentbeI_eved


-

that is

exported

logs

are

of

32

superior

-

quality,

Hence,

a quality

adjustment

alsorequired. Rather

combined and

unit

taxes

ment and

adjustment

export

export of

effects

of

AnOther

will

be

ion

rate,

value

1974. belov

the

from

of

the

estimated

the

period

_odification

is

to

account port in

quotas

want

domestic

net

to

when per

the

Applyln

quotas,

the

producer,

price

and

the

net

export

the

The:_ P

P

is

the

D

is

domestic

X

is

export

e

is

rate

was

producer

substituted

export for

the

which

protect-

which price.

X

formula.for

rate.

nominal

tax. in

estate

the

volume.

pd

to

price

volume. of

s this

doRestic

price.

sales

adjust-

the

D+Z

where

us

of

to

no

differences

enabled

To get

(l-e)

were

protection

price

Pd D

prices

nominal

the

p -

wholesale

quality

on exports, tax.

a

downward

l_anila.

because

of

separately,

there

cent

lgTOs

on

quota

price,

co_paring

for

the

necessary

an effective

export

by

a 14.5

relationship and

adju_ments

1956-69

regional

taxes

With

was

price the

price

these

suggested

wholesale

we really

average

both

This

export

the

estimate

during

costs to

in

for

Manila

transport

began

to

or quotas.

the

adjustment the

r.han attempt

_R.

is

a weighe6d


- 33 -

Domestic exchange

Cost

(DRC),

rate for an activity

resources by

Resource

measured

exporting

or

is_ in effect,

-- the rate at which

in peso social

substituting

_ds

for

values

the

"own"

it can convert

into foreign

exchange

domestic

either

imports.

g + Cd + Ld + Nd DRC

= pbq

Where:

_ (Cf

+ N_)

R

is

lend

rent

(social

C

is

user

cost

of

L

is labor cost

N

is cost of intermediate

capgtal

the

(social

in?uts

at border

price

subscripts_ d and f_ refer to domestic

and border prices

are in terms of

DRCs have previously products_

znd foreign

foreign

been

origin,

1979).

estimated

1977-79

data

estimates

This study supplMents

from a sample

for 1974 were

the capital

structure

for the major

land_ labor and capitalp

tables

and wood processing

also made on the basis firms,

were

costs

forest

this with DRC estimates

of six logging

of the sample

Foreign

exchange.

using data from the 1969 and 1976 input-output

et.al.,

inputs_

value)

(social value)

pbQ is value of output and

value)

of input-output

Social values

estimated

(Bautlst&, based on

firms.

New

data and

for the primary

as explained

below.


-

SOcial

Value,

cost of land

concern

in

recent

apart

from

would,

in

the

past, the

the

value

as

The question

benefits

to

that accrue

farming which

the

that

Of woodproducts)

from

be at

is complicated, from keeping

have the

external

equal

land in

Given.the

already

hectare to its

wide-

disappeared benefits

a marginal

least

opportunity

usa, which

in general.

fores_

be judged

situation,

take

in the best alternative

to crop

might

we would

farming.

extent

it

present

(quite in

direct

forest value

in

farming.

forestry,

the

As

land

forest

margin

to

value

in

between

rent, the

If, land

to

forestp

most,

zero.

the

assumption

question expanded and

uses this

above, the

to

and judge

marginal

benefits

zero,

of

to

land,

Again,

cost

the

in

that

the

st

test

the

the

we somewhat

to represent

sustained

should

be

in

benefits form

of

social

yield forest.

at the

land's

value

of

at

the

difference

the

land

as

margin

benefits. the

exceed as

the

the

external

then

somewhat

land

external

represent

we would

and

the

Expressing

would

limit of _600 per hectare land crop farming.

expect

increase.

well-managed

how much

opportunity

cost

We take

value

the

reasonably

down to

we could

value

comparison,

social

of

comes

opportunity

as

For

our

diminish other

an annual

to

crop

benefits

over

Following

at

its value

upland

including

spread

crop

Normally

by the imp0rtantsocial

forest,

the

Land.

in forest

might be marginal howevert

of

34 -

present the

lower

cost_

the

rent

of would

be,

limit.

sensitivity arbitrarily the rental

arbitrarily,

allocation

of

our assume

value

DRC estimates an upper

in marginal up-

we apply

this to She-half


-

of

the

total

area

assumption suitable

of

that, for

no

the more

method

For the input-output capital

Social with wood

of

the

indicated

80 per

cent

late that

of

reported

Value

of

depreciation

and

was the

equipment.

values

of

of

were adjusted

of

was

as

the

sample

flrms.

operations

are

to minimum

wage

the

after

in the 1974 table.

wage

receiving

'bhadow

The

integrated legislation.

wage

data at

pricd'

cost

of

rate

of

by adjusting in was capital

of

estimate

cost of capital,

inflation

the

user

The

an estimated

Depreciation life

the

costs.

determined

rate

labor

Capital.

rate,

estimated

qualify

of

least

labor

cost

(including the

six

the

minimum

was

put

at

cost.

interest

an

to

that the social'opportunity

A study

Hence

of the replacement

the

likely

80 per cent ¢f the minimum

unskilled

estimate

for

a conservative

rent in a residual

added"

logging

1979)

1970s).

and

cost

Most

(Medalla,

interest

capital

is

is

DRC estima'tes for

and firms are subject

allowances).

Social

of

proportion

to the

Labor.

labor was about in

(plus

we think

data estimates,, we include

processing

c_unskilled

wage

that

applies

It has been estimated

firms

than

on what

cost from "other value

Value

allowances

concession

crops.

The above

deducting

35 -

of

consists

these

requires

a social

depreciation. the

goods

estimated

by For

the

upward to take into account

e prior

(or shadow)

reported prices

the

of

Replacement

original

capital

goods.

capital

over

straight-line latter,

the

cost

acquisition the

age

of

method reported

the fact that equipment

on



- 37-

Table 5.

A/location ratios used in estimating established data.

COST OF INPUT

Interest

_ost

:

DOMESTIC

DRC using

" :

FOREIGN

95

5

100

0

5 I0 85

95 90 15

Depreciation: Building & Structure I/ Production machinery and equipment _/ Transport equipment _/ Other fixed assets _ / Labor

'I00

0

Glue

.0

I00

Fuel and lubricants

0

i00

100

0

Land

i/ --

This is based on theimport content of the "general building Construction" sector in the 1969 & 1974 input-output tables which is less than 2Z.

_/

In the IPPP, the ratio is 0-i00 but this •study used a 5-95 ratio based on the import content • of "special industry machinery" sector in the 1974 input-outputtable which is 96%.

3--/ IPPP Project Technical Note No. 4 determined this as the ratio of domestic value added to total cost• in the transport equipment manufacturing sector. 4/

Consists of items like office furniture and equipment not directly used in the productionprocess. It has been estimated in the IPPP that 15Z of the value of such goods come from foreign sources,


- 38-

a

few firms •areactually engaged in the utilization of logging wastes

and mill residues.

.Sampling and Data Collection.

Datawere gathered from six fi-rms

which were the only acceptable respondents from an initial list of 30 firms obtained from the Presidential Committee on.Wood Industries.Development (PCWID) Directory of Timber

Licenses in the Philippines (1980).

Table 6 gives _he employment level and product lines of the six firms. The survey questionaires

were mailed in the first week of January 1981

to the selected firms and the data were personally collected from the firms from May to July of tbe same year.

Table 6.

SAMPLE FIRM

Employment level and product lines of the six sample firms, 1977-1979.

:

TOTAL : EMPLOYMENT

.PRODUCT LINES AND.Z SHARE TO TOTAL VALUEOF THE FIRM's OUTPUT Log : •Lumber : 'Plywo_du,

F1

1345

23

4

73

F2

1658

0

100

O

F3

708

68

5

27

F4

2659

67

29

4

F5

3215

22

24

F6

2352

21

18

54 61


- 39 -

5.

Protection

and Comparative

Protection:

Logs.

assumed

that prior

quality

adjusted

which

represents

words,

penalized

to 1970, when

border

of export

parisons,

7 shows estimates

for 1970-80.

rate varied

sharply

suddenly

ment of domestic for the period,

tax or quota,

to export

protection

unit value,

rate,

in other

to this generalization

the so-called

interventions

"retention

exchange

rate.

scheme"

The focus

in the 1970s in the form

tax and the sliding

for a limited to year,

period

however,

Quotas began

in

exaggerates

the price

1970-75

comparison

1973.*

There

imposed

tax on logs has recently

rate

and transport

1976-78

raised

Overall

a result close

tax plus premium

The period

been

it , but

temporarily.

yields

for quality

in 1976.

The

is a lag in adjust-

in 1974, but their effect was negligible

limits were

was minuc

or the exchange

the wedge

com-

scale

after

prices

from the export

our adjustment

on price

as we have measured

when international

prices which

based

rate for the years

as they did in 1970 and 1973.

confidence

*The export

of the NPR for logs,

the export

to what we would expect

stringent

export

exceptions

when

The average

from year

this is to be expected

justify

The nominal

Evidence.

4 (above) it is

price was equal

via a less favorable

that was In effect

enough

there was no

1962-1965

is on the major

6 per cent_ reflecting

change

i_ Section

There may have been during

the Empirical

taxes and quotas.

Table

premium

price.

major exports

here, however,

As explained

regionaldomestic

was zero.

-- for example,

Advantage:

to costs.

until more shows, an

to 20 per cent.


- 40 -

Table7.

Year

: • :

Nominal Protection Rate for Logs, 1970-1980

Adjusted Domestic Price -I/ (_ per cu. meter)

:: Border Price : (_ per cu. meter)

} Nominal Protection_2/ _ Rate (per cent) --

-

=

1970

128

150

-15

1971

161

165

-02

1972

170

157

+08

1973

215

270

-20

1974

303

311

-03

1975

260

267

_03

1976

297

441

-33

1977

368

490

-25

1978

390

490

-20

1979

470

946

-50

1980

578

990

-42

Average

'

....

(unweighted):

1970-75

-06

1976-78

-26

1979-80

-46

I/

- ,L -

Manila wholesale price divided by 1.17 for combined quality and transport cost adjustment, as explained in Section 4.

2/

Domestic Prices Border

I

i00 for 1970-1973.

Price

We£ghted Average of

Domestic

and Net Export

Price - 1 "100 for

Border a

P':ice

B nk

Philippine Forestry Statistic, 1976 and 1980. World Bank, "Price Prospects £orHajor Primary

Commodities" 1980,

1974-I



- 42 -

penalty

on the

negligible,

so

IPPP Project

price

of output.

For

that

the EPR is

roughly

set

logs,

this

equal

both NPR and EPR at minus

additional

to

the

10 per

penalty

NPR.

cent,

For the

is

1974,

rate

the

of

export

taX. For lumber, positive major

protection input

the Project again

IPPP Project

overall

more thatn

Plywood

--

the

because

offset

and Venerate estimated

positive

estimated the

depressed

the paenalty combined

a combined

an EPR of 16 per cent

of

in the

the

these export

of the

greater

be inoted

that

of logs

export

as the

tax on output.

input-output

EPR for

because

price

--

products

table;

hence,

at five

per cent

tax on the

principal

input,

logs.

are

Finally,

it

should

calculated

at

the

existing

these

exchange

effective

rate,

which

rates in

the

of protection. 1970s

was esti-

mated to undervalue foreign exchange anywhere from 14 to 24 per cent because of the trade restrictive effect of the eutlre industrial protection.system (Sautista, et. el., 1979). this

extent

as

compared

to ehac

they

All exports, would

then

earn under

free

were penalised to trade

or,

alter-

natively, under what the IPPP Project called an"optimal intervention system". 23 per

In this project we are using a sliKhtly narrower range of 17 to

cent

for

the

estimate

of

the

undervaluation

of foreign

(equivalent to a 20 to 30 per cent overvalua_ion of the peso).

exchange Adjusting

for this we get ranges of net effective protection rates for the major wood products

of: Logging

-31 to -25 per cent

Lumber

'll to

Plywood b Veneer.

-19 to -12 per cent

3 per cent


- 43-

These are measures industrial

of the total penalty

protection • (mainly in the fom

take into account

the effect

the

on logs much

total

penalty

Comparative

Advantage:

sets of estimates the input-output survey

of

six

Section4.

for

them with

was estimated

rate

in 1974.

potential

are

£t is evident,

To

the shadow price to the method

on data from

on data from our

explained

above

in

follows:

as

social

assess

costs

of earning

comparatlve

advantage

of forelgnexchange. of the lPPP Project

the official

rate during

The to be in

the mlddle

s_

of 8.15 to 8,83 for the shadow exchange

then,

advantage.

that these DEC results

It must be stressed

only on the assumption We believe

was

the estimated

for export.

This gives a range

yield forestry, fore stswould

in pesos

according

Two separate

6.04

30 per cent above

comparative

is potentlal

DZCs.

& Veneer

to compare

1970s.

set

6.20

production

late

first

estimation

Lumber.

represent

whichwouldmake

costs.

second was based

5.47

through

a range of 20 to

the

of

Resource

Logging

These figures

latter

log exports,

This does not

The first was•based

The

The method

Plywood

we need

Domestic

table for 1974.

firms.

of tariffs).

taxes and

greater.

of DRCs were made.

The results

one dollar

of quotas•on

from export

of reasonable

that past practices

incur such high social

costs

indicate

strong

that this advanta? _

well

managed

of virtually

as to result

sustained

mining

in very

the

unfavorabi_


- 44 -

Turning to the DRC estimates for the sample firms it should be noted that all were integrated in that they combined logging _th lumber and/or plywood production.

soma

Each had a definite concentrations

however, in terms of value of final product. indicated in the table below, which gives

These concentrations are

DRC estimates for 1977 -1979

on the alternative assumptions of zero rent and _600 per hectare.

FIRM

DRC

ZeroRent .I, Plywood

r6OO_n_

5.78

10.73 8.97

2.

Lumber

6.89

3.

Logging

4.49

13,64

4.

Logging

3.42

4.84

5.

Plywood

4.73

7.14

6.

Plywood

5..55

7.35

With two exceptions, these D_C estimates fall below the shadow exchange rate for 1977-79,

which is in the range, 8.86 to 9.59.

The

two exceptions for firms I and 3, showed much greater:sensitivity to a variation in l_d

rent, the reason being that they had much ithe lowes_

ratios of hectares actually logged to total hectares _nthe concession. Correspondingly, they had by far the lowestvaluee of output per concession hectare.

Sine_concession hectares simply measure space, it is

possible thatfor these two the proportion of concession space that was


-

usable.forest

was lower.

Hence_

45

our rent estimates

too high for them. Alternatively, optimum

levels of logglng

negative

rank correlation

of output, decisive,

and DRC,

-

they may have been

and output. between

Among

operating

indicated

again a very

the present

was very high with

strong

six wood product

showing

firms.

forest management

input-output

practices

of these

the standards

of our assumption

mlght hereto

_ncur additional

It is int_estlng

Table

8, together with

the two years

firms.

consistent

a basis

with

evidence

It is possible yleld

for these

those on

that to

forestry,

the

meet

the firms

costs. these results

for•the

years

their estimates

(Bautista,

This implies

to provide

We have no direct

of sustained

to compare

for wood and paper products

closer

comparative •advantage

are reasonably

data.

comes

above.

the sample is too small

the results

by value

zero rent.

as we indicated

of potential

While

for strong conclusions, from the aKEregated

situation,

at below

But the rent factor was not

In any case, we think that the zero rent assumption to reflecting

be relatively

the six there was a perfect

size of operatlon_

with rent at _600.

since the correlation

would

et. al.,

wlthlPPPProjeet

1969 and 19_4, as shown in

of the shadow exchange

1979).

estimates

rate for


-

Table 8.

DRC Estimates

_/for

Wood

45a

-

and Paper

Products

:

Industries

1969-1974

DRC ESTIMATE

INDUSTRY

Lumber Plywood Pulp,

and

veneer

paper

and

paper

manufacturing

Paper products Paper and paperboard Shadow

i/

exchange

rate

As determined

Again stands

out in relation products.

6.

Spmm_ry

interest

has been

comparative

6.14

4,65

6.48

6.04

9.14

6.04

II.i0

6.36

II,47

6.48

9.21

1979.

advantage

to less advantage

of efficient

in the Philippines.

not only

mic benefits

3.68

of

wood

or comparative

products

is clear for

disadvantage

and Conclusion.

The importance appreciated

1974

in the IPPP Project,

the potential

paper

their

containers

1969

given recently

of forest resources

The government

in the conservation

to be gained

destructive

management

from forest

has shown an increasing

of forests, products.

to the forest communities

activities

is well

but also in the econoIncreasing

attention

in an effort

and find for them a more

to end

constructive

role.

a_


-

46

This study has notattempted ment

policies

affecting

that most strongly and export given

and

technical

left aside.

forestry,

affect

of forest

to

evaluate

incentives

Conservation

questions

of

The focus instead

the whole

range of govern-

but rather has concentrated

the price

products.

-

efficient

on those

for productlonD

processing

goals have been taken forest

management

has been on broader

aspects

have

as been

of economic

efficiency. Principally, _ines have interest growth

a comparatlve

of efficient

of

the

of course, primary

two questions

forest

the very

or processed

intervention industry?

policies

utilization product

wood

resources

from

the

but also industrial

the indirect, protection

of

between

the

goals

specifically

but powerful,

system.

this

forest

or detrimental

the development

not only policies

Is it in the to promote question

effects

the is,

exporting

how have government

development

been helpful

to meet

to

of the choice Second,

does the Philip-

resources

Subsidiary

products. the

First,

products.?

of Philippine

issue

affected

studied.

in forest

industry?

important

Here we have considered products,

advantage

Have these policies

use of forest

were

price

product to the economic

of the Philippines? directed

to forest

on price

incentives


- 47

.What

we have

found?

mates

-of DRCs both

survey

data

major

wood

goal

of

degree

rate

the

Ratios

product

lower for

our

the

the

estimated

could vary wlthout

can

data

question, and

the

met.

is

of

one the

assuming

substantial

more

advantage

in

plywood

the

DEC to

indicates degree

zero

all

veneer

the Philippines

the

range

which

the

the

shadow advantage advantage. from

prices

comparative

if

of

comparative

rent,

margin within

three

comparative of

land

esti-

detailed

A common measure

ratio

than

our

from

lumber,and

be

greater

sacrificing

first

comparative

less

DRCs,

a very

table

is

A value

the

logging,

forestry

value

to .71 indicating

--

advantage

(SEE).

to

potential

activities yield

respect

input-output

strong

comparative

exchange and

from

indicate

sustained of

With

°

.37

and costs

advantage

in wood products. The DRC results

depend,

of course,

prices

and costs that prevailed

belong

-- for the survey,

the assumptions

about

as on our heroic

assume

1977-79.

Moreover,

assumption

about

future

coefficients

to Variations

in costs

zero land rent -- in effect,

marglnal

external

of land in forest.

the period

the shadow prices

Table 8 shows elasticity DRC estimates

during

on the particular

benefits

compensate

towhich

the results

of land,

labor

levels

of

the data depend

•

also on

and capital,

as well

forest management.

to indicate and value Judging

the sensitivity

of output.

Again,

that in the present

for opportunity

of the we

situation

cost at the margin



-

about

40

per

i.e.,

.without

cent

the

for

be

tempted

to

compare

products

to

throw

the

•survey

results,

a stronger ever,

to

interpret

tively tio_ be

automobile servation each

other

with

other,

The to

policy, for

the

non-forest favorable

tagr

wood

general.

is

better

It

to

would over

that

Clearly

capital

export

conservashould

activity

because

not

in

--e.g., of

the

con-

competition

with

processing

competes

_espectl

the

is

indicate

a

the

average

for

processed

wood

In

this

strongly to

wood

resources

compara-

and

words,

Rather,

is of

economic

and

by conservation

limits

other

how-

lumber

the

are

suggest

by drawing

some

processing

.The to

of

logging

within

is

a mistake,

mainly

beyond

In other

seem

export

dictated

it

plywood,

be

or

compared

--

answer comparative

clear, advan-

manufacturing

to

gain

In

Section

the

advantage

and processing.

now to

we set four major

is

resources.

as

those

data,

labor

activities.

with whether

and

whether

DRC-SER ratio's

logging

We turn

of

lumber

is

to

rate

question

question

and wood

processing

So it both

use

or

export

pursued

steelNaking.

logging

the

manufacture.

logs

or

on

logging,

expand

be

exchange

logging

input-output

log

cannot

remaining

assembly

logs

activity

should

processing

The very for

logging

and

in

shadow

DRCs for

light

favoring

and plywood

advantageous

applied

as

logging

lumber

policy.

from

of

the

from

advantage

Therefore, from

those

the

advantage,

_to export as

this

The rate

policy. sway

well

comparative

plywood.

comperative

Philippines as

-

DRCs above

their

processed

better

pushing

losing

• One might for

without

49

price

intervention

goals for policy:

policies.

3 (above)

in


-

1)

limit

in S output

meet

. 2)

capturing

private

rents

3)

promoting

foreign

exchange

advantage,

and

4)

raising

We noted

that

expected

to attain

accepted

theory

separate

policies

charges

and they

general

to

sets

last

export

four

economic (or

the

for

policy

all of

have

contribute

revenue

no single

Taking

since

to

50

taxes

other

course,

from strictly forest policy

revenues.)

The point

should not be designed

earnings

consistent

forest

administration.

(e.g.,

export

tax

we concluded

policies)

be

or

cons_tent

first: designed

play.

only

they

revenues is simply to meet

widely

forest

this

do

purpose

raise

can

but revenues

to fill the gap between

forest policies.

be

four

that for

revenue

can

goals.

primarily

What

the

we need

four

we note

comparative

charge)

with

that

to meet

with

forest

of forest administration,

taxation must be used

revenues

concessions,

policy,

to

target,

logging

Indeed,

cannot

the financing

conservation

from

(revenue)

roles

the

goals.

of

one

-

from

this need and the

(If the gap is negative , of

would make

a net contribution

that forest a specific

charges revenue

to general

and export

taxes

target for forest

adminis trat ion. With

respect

ties and the need of the conservation Forest but

charges, could

not

by meet

to conservation, we to meet qualitative, target,

direct

themselves, the

qualitative

could

noted

that, because

as well

controls limit

of externali-

as quantitative,

and regulations output

requirements

(if of

they

aspects

are needed. are

conservation

effective), po!,icy.


- 51 -

Nevertheless,

forest

controls.

charges

We noted

above

could that

play

forest

a role charges

terms over the period

studied;

and

represent

light

on output

six

only

e very

per cent ad valorem.

charges

roughly matched

represent

substantially

the conservation

just profitable

were,

at the margin

put of logs, marginal

available.

competitive

A higher

should

in

the recent

logs

--

less

a decade ago revenue

expenditures

on forestry,

they now

No doubt

reducing incentives

indeed,

raised to the point where

they

to output

to produce

below

be eliminated.

problem.

This leaves

The ideal method

bidding for timber .... be a possible

to determlnej

is not

firstj the extent

normal

rate of return in other

activities

(with due allowances

capture

such

relevant

from forest products. (I) the industrial

protection

over the for risk);

rents for society.

-- promoting

Policies

concessions

a land tax on forest concessions

we turn to the area of policy where

are most

Serious

of intramarginal

in logging

largely

intra-

substitute.

to capital

that would

out-

presently

of returns

of administering

is

of eliminating

i.e._ excess

end second, a means

it

the conservatlon-determined

rents,

findings

than

from forest

without

land tax would

be undertaken

Finally,

real

rise in rates,

probably

of those expenditures.

rents would

rents as a remaining

them -- namely

declined

direct

target.

If forest charges

_udy

government

of

while

supplementing

have

, even with

Moreover,

only about one sixth

could be raised

marginal

tax

in

optimal

that have

system which

this study

foreign

the greatest penalizes

and the

exchange

earnings

impact here are:

all exDort&

via


-

undervaluing

foreign

We have advantage, rather

than

advantage

it

noted is

loss. in

(2)

exchange;

already

that

preferable

to

logs

Section

3 (above)

we noted

also

between

world

domestic

prices

of

demand.

ment

for

inferior

this

addition,

on all

forelgn

Finally, exports

logs

that

range

of

of

17

the

we would

long-run combined

and

the

have

world

effect

a total

is

of

the penalty

export

tax.

tax

from

ideal

instruan

system

imposes

via

undervaluation

Since

at

that the •world demand

all

on logs.

elasticity

It

is

equal

to

undervaluation

the

former

not

a

of

is

in

foreign

probably

other

at

wordsl

loss has an absolute

from undervaluation

that the 17 to 23 per cent penalty

of foreign

that results

It is due solely

exchange

is quite

from disequilibrium to the

distortions

apart

on export

from any peso

in the foreign caused

e is

By "total'*

for this reason

likely,

for Philippine

1/e,where

six.

It should be noted

_arket.

elasticity

demand for logs.

explicit

overvaluation

In

represent

cent

to justify

value less. than

the

ban)

23 per

export

elasticity

of

explicit

tax

export.

world

tax

comparative

a wedge

protection

to

of

for

least _7 per cent, it seems very difficult export

plywood/veneer

creating

(or

subsidies.

.comparative

reflects

quotas the

and

them

that

that

of

indicatlon

an export

export

and

'.

then,

the estimated

exchange

strong

the advantage

that

the

lumber

the

of

quotas

discussion

export

we noted in

the

exchange.

Ideally,

we mean

and

taxes,

and processing

we noted

purpose,

method.

penalty of

In

in

we noted

producing

and

export

above,

Moreover,

both

52 -

exchange

by industrial

any


- 53-

protection.

If it is judged that the present value of the peso is not

an equilibrium

one

-- e.g., because of excessive forei_ borrowing --

this would represent an additional element of distortion in the value of foreign exchange.

Price

This can be easily seen with _he aid oÂŁ Figure 4.

of Foreign.

Ex.change

.S

G

-/

/

" D'

L

•Quantity of Foreign Exchange Figure S and D represent the level

absence that

form of

the

of industrial is

tariffs)

judged

4

supplyanddemand.for

protectionand

to be desirable,

reduces

the

demand for

with Industrial foreign

foreign foreign

exehanse

borrowing

protection exchange

in

at .a

(in

the

(by reduclng .i


- 54 -

imports)

to

•initial

D'.

The price

of

foreign

at

If

we add

•equilibrium

supply

of foreign

E.

exchange

The gap between exchange, gap," the

made

up of

PG. What distortion

to

reduce

of

"distortion

suggests

is

foreign

dependence

There

isj

of

veneer.

excessive

gap," that

on

the

foreign

course,

EFt 17

and

to A3

in view

of

penalty

this in a first-best

by a 20 per cent subsidy./(the latter the first -best package

probably

demand.

case

this

•the and

same

subsidy.

transfer

for

of

the

total

government's

desire

of

lumber

would

and

require and its

also for plywood). ban on

wood exports,

right

export

There

and

is a tacit

tax on logs from

for the optimal of world

exploita-

demand is

however.

package

has

financial

_nplications

We must .consider that not only processed face the same penalty

To.implement

problem

of

estimate

(I) no quota or

elasticity

view,

£irst-best

products., but. all exports

cent

lumber or plywood/veneer,

is about

The implied

that might be disturbing..

be:

that the implicit

too low on a long-run

19 any

might

to processed

of the currency

tion of foreign

to G.

of foreign

tax on these products

tax on logs,

here, of course,

undervaluation

further

manner,

replacement

assumption

the

"disequilibrium

on exports

of the four per cent export

(3) a 20 per cent subsidy

from its

borrowing.

a similar

(2) no export

the per

the

F

borrowings

estimate

the removal

lo8 exports,

to

i_s price

a conservative

exchange,

To correct

Thus

reduced

foreign

is now S', reducing

gap may represent

undervaluation

£s

E and C is the total undervaluation the

this

exchange

the

tha

latter

government.

might

and_ imply

in a sense, an

impossible

wood

"deserve" tax


- 55 -

A second-best on logs both

approach,

for revenue

in SectionS,

via

tar

export

products.

Net

valuation nating help

an even

with

the

the

this

exchange)

wood

re_val

tax

for promoting

net

of

price of

the

tax

processing. of logs

processed

effect

of

wood

under-

but elimi-

tax on lumber and plywood/veneer

on logs

the

the to

There

export

tax

second-best

give

is

some

level

on lumber

foreign

relief for

and

this

would

for balance

might

to

the

be

export

which,

together

plywood/veneer,

protection.

borro_r_ng_ the export

to exporters

if lo8 exports

value

solution

adequate

at least zero net effective

for this reason.)

the net price sequence

export

was seen to be still negativep

is g_ven still greater

again

the

protection

(i.e.,

further,

products. of

i.e., to reduce higher

argument

export

give the latter exchange

continue

that.

higher

processed

to

the domestic

effective

protection

the four per cent export

to correct

be

that depressing

raise

.effective

Carrying

of

could

of foreign

would

and as an instrument

We saw above, an

then

would

(If foreign

of payments

reasons

tax on logs should be

The fact that the tax on log exports

below marginal

are to be phased

--

revenue

puts

is of little con-

out anyway

in favor of processed

wood exports. In sum, a second-best least:

(1) removal

increased logs,

forest (4)

improved

land

of export

charges,

elimination tax

approach

of on forest

(3)

to policy

tax on processed perhaps

quotas

on logs

concessions.

an increase exports,

reform would wood

include

products,

at

(2)

in

the

export

and

(5)

hopefully

tax

on an


- 56 -

Finally,

it

estimatingDRCs

wÂŁi1

we made

be recalled

that

in approaching

the assumption thatthe

the

problem

of

government would be.

•able in future to administer reasonably well an efficient sustained yield system the

of forest

forestry

management.

policy

package.

This,

of course,

is

the

crucial

element

in


- 57 -

REFERENCES

Bautista,

R., Power, J. and Associates, Philippines, Philippine Institute

Decena,

A.S., O _stes Industry , U.P.

Industrial Promotion Policies in for DeveiopMnt Studies, 1479. in an Inte

at Los Banos,

_ated

the

Wood

de Is Cruz, K., Technical and Economic Feasibility of, Utilizin_ LOgatnZ Wastes, unpublished M'S. thesis, U.P. at Los Bae0sS 1975. Howe, C.W.,

Natural

Resource

Economics ,, John Wiley,

Medalla,

E., "Estimatin and Associates,

Revilla,

A.V., "Critical Issues in Forest Resources Management in the Philippines," unpubllshed inagural lecture for the SEARCA Professlonal Chair in Forest Resources Management, College, Laguna, 1979.

for the

S the Shadow Price 1979.

of Labor,"

1979. in 3autista,

Power

, "Framework of a Comprehensive Fozestry Development Program Philippiues," unpublished lecture, College, Laguna, 1980.

Segura-delos Angeles, M., "Research on Forest Policies for Philippine Develop=enC Planning," in Survey Of Philippine DeveloPment Research Philippine Institute for Development Studies, 1982,

II, --


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