JUVENTUDE
E rISCO RISCO
PERDAS E GANHOS SOCIAIS NA CRISTA DA POPULAÇÃO JOVEM
THE COST OF LOST YOUTH IN BRAZIL Daniel Cerqueira Rodrigo Leandro de Moura
International Development Research Centre Centre de recherches pour le développement international
This study was presented and discussed with international experts on July 12, 2013, in Rio de Janeiro during the seminar: “Youth and Risk” organized and supported by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs (SAE), the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) from Canadá and the Centre for Distributive, Labour and Social Studies (CEDLAS).
// THE COST OF LOST YOUTH IN BRAZIL
THE COST OF LOST YOUTH IN BRAZIL Daniel Cerqueira1 Rodrigo Leandro de Moura2
Brazil is one of the most violent countries on the planet. Every year, over 53,000 people are murdered, another 54,000 are killed in accidents, including traffic accidents, 9,000 commit suicide and 10,000 are killed violently without the state being able to determine the cause of death. The main characters in this story are young people, who feature as both the perpetrators and, especially, the victims. The data on violent youth deaths show an even more tragic reality. For example, in Alagoas, the most violent state, the rate of violent deaths for 20-year-old males has exceeded the incredible level of 456 every 100,000 individuals. Violence against young people is, however, a widespread phenomenon all over the country, and it has grown substantially in recent decades. The proportion of young people who are murdered increases every year. In addition, the victims are younger and younger: as shown in Figure 1, the age of the highest rate of murders, which was 25 years of 1
Head of the Diretoria de Estudos e Políticas do Estado, das Instituições e da Democracia (DIEST) of IPEA
2
IBRE/FGV-RJ researcher and DIEST/IPEA research fellow
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age in 1980, fell to 21 in 2010. What is the profile of these young victims? They are typically pardo (mixed-race) males, with 4-7 years of study, killed in the street with firearms during periods when social interaction is at its highest. Figure 1 - Murder Rate by Age - Brazil 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010
Source: MS/SVS/DASIS – Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade – SIM and Population Censuses of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Devised by DIEST, rate every 100,000 inhabitants.
Extremely worrying too are the deaths caused by traffic accidents. In the 2000s, as a result of an increase in the average income of Brazilians and an improved credit market, particularly as regards the purchase of vehicles, many individuals had access to cars and motorcycles. This phenomenon probably contributed to the 44.6% increase in the rate of deaths in traffic accidents involving young people in the last decade. In this case the typical victims are young, white and have a higher level of education. The losses caused by these tragedies in terms of pain, suffering, and family breakdown are immeasurable. Moreover, these deaths result in a loss of
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life expectancy and, hence, take a toll on the well-being of society, which can be expressed in monetary terms. Our calculations have shown that violence can reduce life expectancy at birth by as much as three years for men – depending on the state (Figure 2) –, the main cause being murders, followed by traffic accidents. Figure 2 – Loss of Life Expectancy at Birth for Men Due to Violent Deaths (Murders, Traffic Accidents, Suicides and Undetermined/Accidents)
AL ES BA AP PA PB PR PE CE GO MT SE RO DF MS TO RR RJ AM RN PI MA MG RS SC AC SP 0
.5
1
H o m icídio s S u icíd ios
1 .5
2
2 .5
A cide nte s d e T ra n sp o rte Ind ete rm in a d a s e O u tro s A cid e n te s
F o n te : M S / S V S / D A S I S - S IM , C e n so 2 0 1 0 /I B G E . E lab o ra çã o D I E S T /I P E A
Murders Suicides
Traffic Accidents Undetermined and Other Accidents
: MS/SVS/DASIS – SIM, 2010 Census/IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Devised by DIEST/IPEA
Economically, the annual cost of the violent deaths of young people (Table 1) can be as much as 6% of the state’s GDP (in the case of Alagoas). Overall, the untimely deaths of young people as a result of violence cost the country an
THE COST OF LOST YOUTH IN BRAZIL \\
estimated R$ 79 billion a year, which accounts for 1.5% of national GDP. What can be done to reduce mortality? This is a complex task which requires greater commitment on the part of the political authorities, a complete restructuring of our weakened public security system and improvements in education, not only in terms of years of study but also quality. Investing in youth is critical, not only in order to reduce the alarming rate of violent deaths, but also to ensure the future of the nation, with more educated and productive individuals. Table 1 - Youth Death Rate and Social Cost of Youth Violence (SMWP) in 2010 by Federative Unit.
Federative Units
Ufs
SMWP of SMWP of Rate of Total Annual current future gen- Total SMWP violent youth SMWP (% SMWP (R$ generation erations (R$ (R$ billion) deaths GDP) billion) (R$ billion) billion)
SMWP da SMWP das Taxa de SMWP Gerações Vitimização Geração Total Futuras Violenta de Corrente (R$ bilhões) (R$ bilhões) (R$ bilhões) Jovens
SMWP Total (% PIB)
SMWP Anual (R$ bilhões)
Annual SMWP (% GDP)
SMWP Anual (% PIB)
Annual SMWP (% State’s GDP)
SMWP Anual (% PIB estadual)
9.7 14.9 0.29 1.0 SP 63.3 422.3 72.9 495.2 RJ 103.7 252.2 41.2 293.5 5.7 8.8 0.17 1.9 PR 132.6 180.1 33.7 213.8 4.2 6.4 0.13 2.5 MG 82.7 181.5 30.8 212.3 4.2 6.4 0.12 1.6 BA 131.2 149.8 29.2 178.9 3.5 5.4 0.11 3.0 RS 83.0 107.9 17.7 125.6 2.5 3.8 0.07 1.3 GO 116.5 98.9 18.7 117.6 2.3 3.5 0.07 3.1 PE 125.5 96.9 19.4 116.3 2.3 3.5 0.07 3.2 PA 125.2 85.9 20.5 106.3 2.1 3.2 0.06 3.5 DF 109.0 76.8 15.0 91.9 1.8 2.8 0.05 1.6 CE 112.8 73.5 14.7 88.2 1.7 2.6 0.05 2.9 ES 163.8 72.7 13.1 85.8 1.7 2.6 0.05 2.7 SC 78.6 66.3 12.0 78.3 1.5 2.4 0.05 1.3 AL 191.2 46.7 10.6 57.3 1.1 1.7 0.03 6.0 MT 117.9 45.5 9.3 54.8 1.1 1.6 0.03 2.4 MA 77.9 36.3 8.6 44.9 0.9 1.3 0.03 2.6 AM 93.9 35.0 9.2 44.2 0.9 1.3 0.03 1.9 MS 110.1 35.6 7.2 42.9 0.8 1.3 0.03 2.5 PB 122.7 33.8 7.1 40.9 0.8 1.2 0.02 3.3 RN 85.8 24.8 4.7 29.5 0.6 0.9 0.02 2.4 RO 111.4 20.3 4.3 24.6 0.5 0.7 0.01 2.7 SE 114.5 19.6 4.1 23.7 0.5 0.7 0.01 2.6 PI 84.8 17.3 3.6 20.9 0.4 0.6 0.01 2.4 TO 104.7 15.2 3.3 18.5 0.4 0.6 0.01 2.8 AP 118.2 9.9 2.5 12.5 0.2 0.4 0.01 3.9 RR 106.6 5.7 1.5 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.00 2.9 AC 72.7 5.5 1.4 6.9 0.1 0.2 0.00 2.1 Total 99.4 2,216.1 416.4 2,632.5 51.5 79.0 1.5 1.5 Fonte: MS/SVS/DASIS - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade – SIM e Censos Populacionais do IBGE. Elaboração DIEST/IPEA. Taxa por 100.000 jovens. Os valores foram atualizados a preços de janeiro de 2013. SMWP significa a MWP da sociedade, ou seja o custo de bem-estar social da violência.
Source: MS/SVS/DASIS – Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade – SIM and Population Censuses of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Devised by DIEST/IPEA, rate every 100,000 young inhabitants. The values were updated to January 2013 prices. SMWP is the MWP of a society, i.e. the social welfare cost of violence.
JUVENTUDE
E rISCO RISCO
International Development Research Centre Centre de recherches pour le développement international
PERDAS E GANHOS SOCIAIS NA CRISTA DA POPULAÇÃO JOVEM