JUVENTUDE
E rISCO RISCO
PERDAS E GANHOS SOCIAIS NA CRISTA DA POPULAÇÃO JOVEM
YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT DEMOGRAPHICS
International Development Research Centre Centre de recherches pour le développement international
This study was presented and discussed with international experts on July 12, 2013, in Rio de Janeiro during the seminar: “Youth and Risk” organized and supported by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs (SAE), the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) from Canadá and the Centre for Distributive, Labour and Social Studies (CEDLAS).
// YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT - DEMOGRAPHY
YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT - DEMOGRAPHY Marcelo Neri (SAE/PR)¹ Ricardo Paes de Barros (SAE/PR) Diana Grosner (SAE/PR) Rosane Mendonça (SAE/PR) Adriana Mascarenhas (SAE/PR) Andrezza Rosalém (consultant) Samuel Franco (consultant)
The young in Brazil have made themselves heard intensely both in the streets and on the social networks. They have proved their great capacity for articulation, creating a veritable wave of mobilization and transformation. They have made it clear that they are determined to participate not only as spectators, but also as protagonists or even decision-makers of their country. This young force makes demands and poses the challenge of providing the conditions and opportunities that will enable them to fully experience their youth and make decisions that will have an impact on their adult lives. With the recent passage of the Youth Statute, the legislation seeks to guide public policies aimed at Brazilians aged 15 to 29 years old. Knowing who they are, listening to them and identifying their priorities, what they want and how they want it is critical for an understanding of the role of the State and society in meeting the needs of the young. With this motivation, and taking today’s 1
SAE/PR: Portuguese acronym of Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of
the Republic
YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT - DEMOGRAPHY\\
demographics and the trend for the coming years as a starting point, the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic seeks to reflect on what is being offered and what has yet to be offered to our youth. In 2013, the addition of all 15 cohorts that make up Brazil’s youth (all the individuals born in a given year, i.e., those who are 15, 16, 17, and so on, up to 29 years old) is 51 million young people, which accounts for just over ¼ - or 26% - of the almost 200 million inhabitants of Brazil. This relative size of the youth population brings us very close to both the average and median global percentages (Graph 1). In 2010, 26% of the world’s population was young; in half the countries, the percentage of young people was less than 27%, and in the other half, over 27% of all the population was young. In 70% of the countries, young people account for 20% to 30% of total population.
Graph 1 - Distribution of countries in the world according to percentage of youth: 2010 34 33 32
30%
31
Youth: (percentage of population)
30 29 28 27
MEDIAN = 26,9% BRAZIL
AVERAGE = 25,8%
26 25 24 23 22 21
70% OF COUNTRIES
20%
20 19 18 17 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES Source: Estimates by the SAE/PR on the basis of UN population data and projections.
What are the implications of having such a large population of young people? It is impossible to think about economic and social growth and transformation without taking account of our greatest assets, or recognizing potentials and peculiarities. Investing in the new generations has a positive impact not only on these young people’s present, but also on Brazil’s future. The discussion involves, first and foremost, the relationship between age groups. Being part of a certain group can change drastically depending on whether the figures are analyzed at the absolute or relative level.
// YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT - DEMOGRAPHY
The number of young people today is about 600 thousand less than the absolute maximum reached in 2008, when 51.3 million people in Brazil were aged 15 to 29 years old. We no longer have an all-time high in youth population. In 2008, however, the percentage of young people was not the highest on record: 25 years before, the young accounted for over 29% of the country’s population. In relative terms, Brazil’s youth reached their peak in 1983. As illustrated by Graph 2 below, the profile of Brazilian youth’s evolution resembles the shape of a trapezium with a broad plateau with ramps on either side. The number of young people rose sharply for 20 years (12.5 million people joined the ranks between 1983 and 2002), remained almost stagnant for another 20 years (2003-2022), at just over 50 million, and then, over the next 20 years, it dropped at the same rate as it had risen (by 12.5 million between 2023-2042). Between 2003 and 2022, the number of young people will remain relatively stable at just over 50 million individuals.
Graph 2 - Evolution of the number of 15-29 years olds: Brazil, 1980-2050 55
plateau
Millions of young people
50
45
12,
5m
ION
m 12,5
40
ill
IO
ill
N
35
30
25
20
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
YEAR Source: Estimates by the SAE/PR on the basis of IBGE² projections.
2
IBGE: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
YOUTH TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT - DEMOGRAPHY \\
If the demographic trends continue, we will not have such a sizable youth population again. But, ultimately, to what an extent is it preferable to be part of a mathematically larger group? This question lies at the root of the debate on population and development. Being in the largest youth population has its advantages, but there are also some disadvantages to it. Population is only one of the factors responsible for development, and an increase or decrease in the benefits of a growing population will also depend on the availability of other factors. In a very sparsely populated area rich in natural resources, it is expected that population increases will result in economies of scale linked to greater clustering and more possibilities for specialization. A larger number of youths can enable a more varied range of services. On the other hand, in an area with scarce natural resources, the expansion of youth will increase competition and bring about losses due to congestion, all the more evident in the labour market. The unemployment rate will rise and wages will fall. In a context of limited public services, a larger number of young people will mean many individuals competing for a few vacancies, a particularly critical situation when the public budget is limited. To what an extent do the current policies ensure the conditions and opportunities that the young so badly need to face the challenge that lies ahead? Is the design of these policies effectively suited to young people? In no more than 25 years from now, Brazil’s large number of youth will be the largest labour force of all time. Few cohorts will be responsible for doing so much in adulthood both for themselves and the country as those who are young people today.
JUVENTUDE
E rISCO RISCO
International Development Research Centre Centre de recherches pour le développement international
PERDAS E GANHOS SOCIAIS NA CRISTA DA POPULAÇÃO JOVEM