THE UNEXPECTED IMPACT ON AFRICAN DEFENCE FORCES OF RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE

Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians, the destruction of entire cities, and the justified imposition of extraordinary sanctions against Russia.

ON TOP OF THIS, it’s causing severe and dangerous wider global impacts, ranging from wheat shortages, to inflation and economic losses.

For many African air forces, however, there is another major problem as highlighted by Ekene Lionel writing for Military Africa: All three of the countries that provide the vast majority of spare parts for ex-Soviet/Russian aircraftand can service and upgrade them, namely Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, will be unable to provide support to anyone for the foreseeable future because of either sanctions or the war itself.

Russian forces have been systematically destroying the Ukrainian defence industry, hitting aircraft construction, maintenance, and parts production facilities. Russia, in turn, is now under such severe sanctions that it’s unlikely it will be able to maintain a significant level of aircraft or even aircraft parts production for long.

Belarus may be in the same position soon, being under a similar level of sanctions as Russia. Moreover, even if Russian facilities are able to maintain a high enough level of production, it’s likely most or all will first be reserved for Russian needs, given the losses they have sustained in Ukraine.

While there are other companies in other countries that could pick up some of the slack in terms of maintenance support, they’re still reliant on Russia and Ukraine for parts and components which aren’t made elsewhere. In fact, even Ukraine, which had an enviable domestic industry before the war, and vast experience with former-Eastern Bloc aircraft, was unable to reverse engineer many key parts for its fighter aircraft after it was cut off from Russian purchases in 2014. Instead, it had to covertly acquire the necessary parts via other countries, while cannibalising large numbers of aircraft.

A Ukrainian Mi-24 Hind before its withdrawal from MONUSCO.

For perhaps a few months the demand could be met by existing parts in supply and a similar type of cannibalisation. But if, as expected, this crisis continues for some time, then African forces operating ex-Soviet, Ukrainian, or Russian aircraft in key roles need to begin making alternative plans now – or face wholesale fleet groundings. These African forces need to be identifying alternative suppliers, locking in as manyguarantees as possible, and looking for reverse engineering opportunities, both domestically, and from companies trying to fill the gap. Even if there ends up being no support and supply crisis, perhaps because Russia withdraws and sanctions are lifted, or other countries somehow make up the slack, this will still have been a useful exercise.

Read more in this months edition..