Q4 2021
Not only that, Utah business leaders are feeling the pinch of a tight labor market as the state’s unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 1.9% in December. It is becoming more difficult to find qualified or skilled candidates for open positions, and workers are expecting higher pay. Executive expectations remain mixed for the short-term as companies juggle labor shortages, inflation, supply constraints, and housing shortages. Overall, 2021 was a year of challenges and disruption. Nonetheless, Utah business leaders and customers have responded with resilience, actively taking steps to address the negative effects, such as reengineering supply chains and utilizing reskilling or upskilling opportunities. Despite headwinds, population growth, tech and innovation expansion, and a favorable business climate will continue to lead the way to our state’s success! CEOutlook
4.0% 3.0%
3.1% 2.9%
2.6%
3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
2.0% 1.0%
3.5%* 2.3%*
1.8% 0.8%*
3.9%*
2.5%*
1.7%*
0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 80.0 70.0 66.3 60.0
75.3 74.3 62.8 62.0 60.6 62.4 62.3 60.9
50.0 40.0
55.5 53.2
60.1
53.3
61.2 59.4
57.358.9
65.9 60.0
32.3
30.0
Optimism
-2.6%*
Concern
And yet, Utah’s job creation over the prior two-year period is the strongest in the nation at 3.7%, whereas nationally, it remains at -1.8%. This strong divergence of Utah’s economy relative to the nation’s could partially account for the drop in confidence as executives look at the larger competitive picture.
The Salt Lake Chamber's CEOutlook Confidence Index decreased from 65.9 in 2021-Q3 to 60.0 in 2021-Q4. Year-Over Job Change
The CEOutlook Index dropped for the final quarter of 2021, finishing the year at 60, down from 65.9 in Q3. None too surprising as this drop in expectations coincided with the rise of the Omicron variant and supply chain disruptions. Both of which continue to influence Utah business leader sentiment and magnify the uncertainty of the pandemic’s variants on structural headwinds.
Confidence Index and Job Change
Confidence Index
Derek B. Miller, President and CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
20.0 10.0 0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2019 2018 2017 2021 *Q2 calculated on 2-year percent change
The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index is based on responses to the four standard questions included in each quarter’s survey (Questions 1-4). The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the economy will improve. Source: Index is produced from the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook with support from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, including analysis of the employment data prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Natalie Gochnour, Director and Chief Economist, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber Uncertainty. This is the economic word of the year. Even before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine Utah CEOs felt unsure about current and future economic conditions. Looking forward, Utah’s business leaders feel unsettled, even as they recognize our state’s inherent strengths. The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index has now declined for three consecutive quarters. Utah CEOs cite labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, continued inflation, and housing affordability as top areas of concern. They view current economic conditions as more positive than the outlook six months into the future, which implies a cautionary approach to business planning. This outlook, coupled with Putin’s war of choice, makes all of us feel a bit unsettled. While uncertainty is the watchword, a can-do spirit is the phrase. Utah business leaders can take Utah’s inherent strengths – fastest-growing population, top-performing economy, favorable business climate, well-diversified economic structure, and public and private leadership – and lead through the storm. Can-do means Utah leaders confront challenges with resolve. The CEOutlook provides a valuable source of information as we lead with our strengths. Fourth Quarter
I 2021
A Look Back and to The Future
— How would you describe the current economic conditions in Utah compared to six months ago? — What is your expectation for economic conditions in Utah six months from now? 90.0 80.0 Confidence IndexConfidence Index
70.0 60.0 50.0 90.0 40.0 80.0 30.0 70.0 20.0 60.0 10.0 50.0 0.0 40.0
82.6
80.5 67.0
65.9
65.0
66.1
61.7
59.2
67.0
65.9
65.0
66.1
61.7
59.2 Q1
Q2
30.0
Q3
64.4 58.8
64.4 58.8 Q4
65.0
64.2 61.4
61.7
61.4
64.2 61.4 Q1
55.5
65.0 61.4 Q2
2017
61.7 55.5 Q3
55.6 50.0
55.6 50.0 Q4
58.8
54.8
50.0
57.7
56.3 48.2
45.6 58.8
54.8
50.0
48.2 Q3
Q2
2018
59.0 57.7
56.3 45.6 Q1
59.0
Q4
56.6 52.6
46.3
Q1
2019
80.5
48.84.2 46.3 Q2 Q3 Q4
61.5 55.4
82.6 78.7
65.1
62.8
64.0
75.0
60.4
54.1
48.8
56.6 52.6
78.7
65.1
62.8
64.0
75.0
61.5
60.4
54.1 Q1
Q3
Q2
2020
55.4 Q4
2021
20.0 10.0
46%
BETTER Q1
Q2
2021 Q4
0.0
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
SAME2017
Q3 2018
WORSE BETTER
Q4 30%
Q1
51% Q3 Q4
Q2 38%
46%
2021 Q4
30%
WORSE 80.0 11% Industry vs. Firm Expectations
Q2
Q3
Confidence IndexConfidence Index
50.0 80.0 40.0 70.0 30.0 60.0 20.0 50.0 10.0 40.0 0.0 30.0
66.4
68.5 61.7
61.3
64.3 59.9
Q1
Q2
59.7
Q3
58.1
Q4
62.5 61.4
Q1
63.6
Q2
2017
20.0
63.3
69.7
66.0
61.2
55.9
53.1
64.1
75.0
72.3
48.2 66.0
69.7
72.3
57.8
61.2
Q3
53.1
53.1
Q4
Q1
2018
58.3
Q3
62.2 62.2
60.8
54.1
62.2
76.8
70.8
62.2
67.1 68.8
62.2
60.8
54.1
46.6
48.2 Q2
59.0
55.9
76.8
70.8
67.1 68.8
75.0
61.9
59.4
59.0
62.2
46.6
29.8 59.3
Q4
2021
24%
53.1
67.9
Q3
Q2
38%
68.5 66.4 64.1 yourN=37 expectation own 63.3 industry 61.7 63.6 61.3 62.5for your
67.9
Q1
51%
— What is six months from now? 61.9 64.3 60.0 — What are59.9your59.7expectations in the next 12 months? 61.4 for 59.3 your firm's profits59.4 58.1 58.3 57.8 70.0
Q4
2020
N=37 SAME
Q1
2019
24%
11%
4.2
Q4
Q1
2019
Q2 Q3 29.8 2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
10.0 BETTER Q1 Q2
2021 Q4
0.0
Q3
SAME2017
2021 Q4
WORSE BETTER N=37 SAME WORSE
Q4
Q1
Q2 19%2018
Q3
Q4 30%
17% 14% 19%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
57% Q1
2019
64% Q2
Q3 2020
57%
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
64%
30%
17% 14%
N=37
2021
I Fourth Quarter
CEOutlook
TIMELY TOPICS Inflation and supply chain shortages continue to be an ongoing issue for business in Utah, the nation, and around the globe. Has your business taken steps to increase its resiliency to supply chain concerns? 75%
Yes No Unsure
We are a service organization, so the supply chain issue doesn’t impact us the same as other industries. We are more concerned about the labor market and our ability to find employees. We’ve had to go outside of Utah and outside of the country to staff our call center. Not particularly relevant given our sector (higher education) and that we have no campuses
8% 16% (Comments listed to right)
In November, consumer prices have had their largest increases since 1982, with 12-month consumer prices increasing by 6.8% and core prices rising by 4.9%. Do you believe higher inflation is a temporary (12-18 months) or long-term (18-36 months) concern for the U.S. and Utah economy? It has been over a year since the FDA approved the first COVID vaccine. Now, the Omicron variant of the coronavirus may be resilient to immunities built from vaccinations or infection with COVID-19. Do you believe the Omicron variant will adversely impact near-term growth in Utah and the United States? What emerging trends, risks and other factors do you think may have a positive or negative impact on Utah’s economy in the next 12 months? Trained workforce - limited ability to hire may limit service increases. Growth, funding infusions begin to circulate in the economy, and inflation will drive additional economic growth. Inflation and lack of trained workforce. Supply chain and labor shortage are the main issues. Costs continue to increase faster than we can raise prices. Wage inflation and costs are rising. Inflation is a key concern, along with stifling increased regulations. Supply chains continue to hamper many businesses. Rising costs for labor, materials, and inventory, shortage of labor, and housing shortages and increasing prices. Affordable housing and labor shortage. Negative impacts - supply chain difficulties, cost of containers (import), inflation, low unemployment, and housing costs. Positive impacts population growth, tech industry growth, and Utah tax policy. Data privacy and policies and transportation. Positive - economic growth and population growth. Negative - recession looming, housing costs, and workforce issues. Lower demand for Higher Ed leads to decreased enrollment and decreased workforce training. Supply chain constraints, higher prices due to increased demand and limited supply, adverse air quality, and low unemployment rate discourages companies locating in Utah. The impact of the continuing inflation, the labor shortage and increase wage pressures.
CEOutlook
Remained the same (4 responded)
Temporary
27% 73%
Long-term
35%
Yes No
11% 54%
Unsure
Very concerned about continuing constraints in our market - talent and real estate chief among them. I am also concerned about increasing costs and the erosion of Utah‘s affordability advantage. Impact of COVID on customer demand / supply chain workforce disruption potential to impact Utah‘s economy remains. Potential positive impact if spread decreases. Labor pool too lean to maintain, let alone grow. On top of that, we‘re averaging 105 employees who are not able to work, due to COVID quarantine. Our business needs to grow but can‘t due to the labor pool with the pandemic making that much worse. Skilled labor shortage is our biggest headwind to success in 2022. Negative risks - continued inflation, supply chain, interest rate hike, Omicron, and inability to hire qualified people. Positive - Utah continues to grow and conservative pro-business policies. Inflation is a threat, mandated COVID testing is a threat. Supply chain issues seem to be calming a bit. Inflation. The labor market and inflation will have a negative impact. An end to COVID and people getting back to work will have a positive impact. The housing market is a challenge for first time home buyers. Labor shortage, increasing interest rates, COVID-related issues. Teacher shortages and students academically below expectations. Inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on Utah‘s economy. Business will continue to be robust having a positive impact on the economy. Growth in the industrial sector will have a positive impact on Utah‘s economy. Improved energy infrastructure and a more diverse energy portfolio will be key as Utah looks to accommodate population shifts from the coast to the mountain west. Additional transportation infrastructure is also key to our ongoing economic health.
Fourth Quarter
I 2021
Monetary tightening by the Fed will suppress economic growth, but will mitigate inflationary pressure. Labor shortage AND skills gap. Omicron and/or other emerging variants, housing costs and supply; supply chain weaknesses or breakdowns; supply of workers. Shortage of housing has created high demand for new housing products in both single family and multifamily markets. Difficulty in hiring, supply chain disruption, and inflation. Housing availability and housing affordability, air quality, and inflation. COVID, housing.
Which factor do you anticipate will be the primary driver in decreasing profits over the next 12 months? “Other” responses. Increase in healthcare cost trends and higher unit cost increases from providers.
Utah’s unemployment rate currently ranks among the nations’ lowest. Are you able to fill vacant jobs right now? Depends (describe) Only with significant increase to pay.
Increased Inflation and limiting supply change. Limited freight options.
We struggle to fill tech jobs.
The Virus.
Depends on the level of position.
Which factor do you anticipate will be the primary driver for increasing profits over the next 12 months? (Other – Specify)
Shortage of licensed mental health professionals and a long runway for pipeline development. Certain jobs, including line workers and engineers, are hard to find. Financial workers are not so difficult to find.
Increased demand and company evolution.
Some positions are very difficult to fill.
Acquisitions.
Depends on type of position. Skilled labor hard to come by.
More stable claims costs resulting in increased predictability and improved loss ratios. Rising interest rates. Combination of new product lines and price increases.
About the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook
Methodology
Respondent Industry Make-Up
The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook is a statewide economic survey of Utah business executives. Modeled after other national business sentiment surveys, it provides a forward-looking view of the Utah economy. The survey results are intended to help business and community leaders make informed decisions about likely future economic conditions. The survey will continue to be evaluated to assess its predictive value. All past CEOutlook reports can be found here: https://slchamber.com/ceoutlook/
The Salt Lake Chamber partners with the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah to design, tabulate and assist in analyzing the survey. Business executives from Utah’s fourteen major industries are asked to respond to 6-8 questions, depending on their responses, about their company and Utah’s economic performance. Respondents are selected by each industry’s contribution to the Utah economy. Panelists come from a range of firm sizes and locations within Utah.
• Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services • Construction • Educational services, health care, and social assistance • Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing • Information
The Salt Lake Chamber is Utah’s largest and longest-standing business association. A statewide chamber of commerce with members in all 29 Utah counties, the Chamber represents the broad interests of the state’s 63,000plus employers, which employ more than 1.4 million Utahns. This includes thousands of members and their employees. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah develops and shares economic, demographic and public policy data and research that help individuals and the community make informed decisions. Housed in the David Eccles School of Business, the Institute seeks to be a vital gathering place and center for independent economic, demographic and public policy thought leadership that helps the Utah economy to prosper. The Institute is a strategic partner with the Salt Lake Chamber in serving Utah.
2021
I Fourth Quarter
• Manufacturing • Mining • Other services, except government • Professional and business services • Retail Trade • Utilities • Wholesale Trade
For More Information Heidi Walker COO, Salt Lake Chamber 801-328-5081, hwalker@slchamber.com Natalie Gochnour Director and Chief Economist, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber 801-585-5618, natalie.gochnour@eccles.utah.edu Dianne Meppen Director of Survey Research, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, 801-587-7807, dianne.meppen@utah.edu.
CEOutlook