DASHBOARD
December 2021
The Roadmap to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
Utah’s two-year job growth is highest in the nation.
Utah’s October two-year job growth of 3.7% is the highest in the nation and one of only four states showing positive job change.
2
Utah’s unemployment rate drops below pre-pandemic levels. Utah‘s October unemployment rate of 2.2% is lower than the February 2019 rate of 2.5%. Utah’s unemployment rate ranks second in the nation.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – October 2021 2020
3
Job change is uneven across industries. While Utah has seen two-year job growth overall, not all industries have expanded. Jobs have declined in the Leisure & Hospitality, Government, and Natural Resources industries.
Utah Job Change by Industry September 2019 - September 2021 3.7%
Total
2021
9.5%
Construction
100,000
5.7%
Manufacturing
Continued Claims 2019 Average
3.3%
Information
7.7%
Financial Activities -0.8%
Leisure & Hospitality
50,000
0.5%
Other Services -2.3%
Government
1.4%
Unemployment Rate 12% 10% Utah Department of Workforce Services Source: 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% S-2% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R -4% -6% -8% -10%
5.4% 3.9%
2.2% 10/2
2.4% 9/11
3.0% 2/13 3/6 2.9% 3/27 2.8% 4/17 5/8 2.7% 5/29 2.8% 6/19 7/10 2.6% 7/31 2.5% 8/21
3.5% 12/5 1/2 3.3% 1/23
5.3% 6/20 4.5% 7/11 8/1 4.1% 8/22 5.0% 9/12 10/3 4.1% 10/24 4.3% 11/14
3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18 5/9 8.6% 5/30
Education/Health Services 0
Natural Resources
-12.6%
Professional/Business Services
6.8%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
7.1%
Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate October 2021
Job Change Two-Year Percent Change, October 2021
5.0% 5.0%
-1.0% -1.0%
4.9% 3.3% 4.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 6.9% 2.8% 3.2% 6.9% 2.8% 2.8% 6.1% 2.8% 6.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 6.0% 3.9% 6.0% 1.9% 1.9% 7.3% USA 5.1% 3.3% 7.3% USA4.6% 4.6% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 6.0% 2.2% 6.0% 4.3% 5.4% 4.3% VT 3.6% 5.4% 7.3% VT2.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.9% 7.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2% NHNH2.9% 2.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% MA 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 5.2% 2.7% 3.7% MA 5.3% 5.2% 3.7% 3.9% 6.5% 3.9% 6.5% CTCT6.4% 6.4% 3.1% 3.1% 5.5% RI RI5.4% 5.5% 3.1% 5.4% 3.1% 5.4% 5.4% NJNJ7.0% 5.4% 5.4% 7.0% MD MD5.7% 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% DCDC6.3% 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% DEDE5.3% 5.3% 3.1% 3.1%
-3.6% -3.6%
-0.8% -0.8%
2.3% 2.3% -5.7% -5.7%
7.3% 7.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-4.3% -4.3%
-7.7% -7.7% USA USA-2.2% -2.2% VTVT-6.3% -6.3% NHNH-3.1% -3.1% MA -4.1% MA-4.1% CTCT-4.5% -4.5% RI RI-4.6% -4.6% NJNJ-4.1% -4.1% MD -3.0% MD-3.0% DCDC-4.9% -4.9% DEDE-2.9% -2.9%
-12.5% -12.5%
3.7% 3.7%
2020
2021
Profe
1.7% Utah 1.4% Juab
2.7% Carbon 2.0% Sanpete
2.7% Emery
3.6% Grand
4.6% San Juan
2.1% Kane
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
2.2% 10/2
$500
$0 5.0%
Unemployment Rate 1.5%
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - August 2021 $1,000
4.2% Wayne 5.6% Garfield
2.4% 9/11
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.3% Sevier 3.4% Piute
3.0% 2/13 3/6 2.9% 3/27 2.8% 4/17 5/8 2.7% 5/29 2.8% 6/19 7/10 2.6% 7/31 2.5% 8/21
3.5% Uintah
3.5% 12/5 1/2 3.3% 1/23
2.0% 2.9% Wasatch Duchesne
3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18 5/9 8.6% 5/30
2.0% Summit
1.9% Salt Lake
Trade
12% Continued Claims 10% 2019 Average 8% 6% 5.4% 50,000 4% 3.9% 2% 0.5% 0% -2% 0.1% -4% -6% -8% 0 -10% -12% -14% 2011 2012Rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unemployment US Utah
$ Millions
1.9% Box Elder
2.0% Iron
E
Job Change 100,000 Year-Over Percent Change, October 2021 1.4% Cache 1.9% Rich 1.9% Weber 1.7% Davis 1.4% Morgan 3.0% Dagget
1.7% Millard
Job Growth Job Growth
Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rate October 2021
2.0% Washington
-3.5% -3.5%
-12.5% -12.5%
Unemployment Rate 1.9% Unemployment Rate 1.9%
1.9% Beaver
-0.6% -0.6%
-5.0% -2.9% -5.0% -0.4% -4.4% -0.4% -2.9%-4.2% -3.7% -4.4% -4.2% -3.7% 3.7% 3.7% -2.3% -3.8% -2.3% -1.7% -3.8% -1.7% -2.6% -2.8% -4.0% -2.8% -4.0% -2.6% -2.5% -2.9% -2.5% -2.9% -0.9% -0.9% -0.6% -0.6% 0.7% 0.7% -3.0% -3.0% -0.5% -1.6% -4.8% -1.6% -4.8% -0.5% -0.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.7% -0.4% -0.7% 0.3% 0.3% -6.8% -6.8% -6.7% -6.7% -1.1% -1.1%
6.3% 6.3%
2.0% Tooele
-3.9% -3.9%
-5.3% -5.3% -3.6% -3.6%
5.3% 6/20 4.5% 7/11 8/1 4.1% 8/22 5.0% 9/12 10/3 4.1% 10/24 4.3% 11/14
4.4% 4.4%
6.2%
4.4%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2020
2021
3.3% 3.1% Residential
3.5% Non-residential
4.9%
Other
3.2% 6.9% 2.8% 2.8% 6.1% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 4.1% 3.9% 6.0% 1.9% 7.3% USA 4.6% 3.3% 5.1% 2.2% 6.0% 4.3% 3.6% 5.4% 7.3% R O A D M A P3.9%T O 3.7% R E C O V4.2% E R Y C O A VT L I 2.8% TIO NH 2.9% 4.1% 4.2% 2.7% 3.7% MA 5.3% 5.2% 3.9% 6.5% CT 6.4% 3.1% 5.5% 3.1% RI 5.4%
-3.6
N
-4.0
$4,023 2,045,849
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 2020 2021 J F M A M J2019 J Average A S O N D Airport J F Passengers M A M J J A S 2020 2021
Bankruptcy Cases Filed
Bankruptcy Cases Filed
Confidence Index Confidence Index Index Confidence
40 20,000 50
0 Jan.Q2Feb. Mar.Q1 Apr. May Jul.Q3Aug. Sep. Nov. 20 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun. Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct. Q3 Q4 Q1Dec. Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 600 20 0 800 40 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0
11/1/21
10/11/21
9/20/21
A S O N
8/9/21
J
43
J
A S O N D J
2021
F M A M J
4
J
A2 S O 1
3 11/1/21 11/1/21
9/20/21 9/20/21
10/11/2110/11/21
8/9/21 8/9/21
8/30/21 8/30/21
7/19/21 7/19/21
6/28/21 6/28/21
6/7/21 6/7/21
5/17/21 5/17/21
10
$4,023 2
0 1
11/1/21
9/20/21
10/11/21
8/30/21
8/9/21
7/19/21
6/28/21
6/7/21
40 $1,000
5/17/21
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4/26/21
60 0
0 $2,000 50
4/26/21 4/26/21
0
$3,00050
4/5/21
100 20 $4,000
4/5/21 4/5/21
150 0 $5,000 50
3/15/21 3/15/21
40
Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the $0 20 will improve economy 120,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 Institute, and Utah Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy 100,000 2019 Average Retail Sales 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
Q4 Q1 Q1 80,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 60,000
January 40,000 2019 - October 2021 7% 20,000 120,000 6%
0 100,000 5%
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2020 2021 60,000 3% 80,000 4% 2% 40,000 1%
20,000
0%
M0 A 2020
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 2021 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun.
Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 200
4
Cum
120,000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 100,000 2019 0 80,000 120,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2020 A S O 2020 2021 2021 60,000 120,000 100,000 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2019 40,000 100,000 80,000 2020 2019 Source: United States Bankruptcy Court 80,000 2020 20,000 2021 60,000 2021 S60,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R 40,000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 40,000 100 20,000 20,000 U.S. Utah 0
M A M J
3/15/21
11/1/21
9/20/21
10/11/21
8/9/21
8/30/21
7/19/21
6/7/21
6/28/21
5/17/21
4/5/21
4/26/21
3/15/21
2/1/21
2/22/21
1/11/21
Utah Bankruptcy Cases 50 40,000 January 6020 2019 - October 2021
200J F 50 50 2020 100
2/22/21 2/22/21
1
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O J F M A M J J A S O N 2021 D J F M A M J J A S 2020 2021 2019 2019 Average Airport Passengers Source: State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 80,000 2020 50 2021 60 40 60,000
200
M J
32
100 150 60 0
2/22/21
2
12/21/20
Q1 021
M A
200
2/1/21 2/1/21
2,045,849
0 120,000 J 0F 2020 100,000 60
0
A 1S O N
0%60 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O M 2020 A M J J A S O N D J F2021 M A M J J A S O N Note:2020 Number of vaccines includes date listed and 2021 the following 6 days. 4 40 Utah Department of Health Source:
2/1/21
Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Index (Thousands)
3
Utah
50
400
J
Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)
4
20 1,500,000 40 0 00 J Q1 F Q2 M Q3 A MQ4 J Q1J Q2A Q3 S Q4 O NQ1 DQ2J Q3F Q4 M Q1 A M O Q2 JQ3 J Q4A0 Q1S Q1 2020 2021 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 200 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 500,000 2020 2021
O
0
M J
CEO Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q2 2021 20 200 150
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
U.S.
1%
2021
M A 8/30/21
2021
100 60
150 50 60 40 80 40 2,500,000 100 40 20 60 20 2,000,000
M J
J A S O N D J F 2021 U.S. Utah J A S O N D J F 7/19/21
A S O N
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O Source:2020 Utah J FDepartment M A M ofJ Health J AandS John O Hopkins N D2021JUniversity F M (JHU) A MCoronavirus J J A S O 2021 100 2020 Resource Center 2019 Average
M A 20 80 20200
3% 2%
F
U.S. Utah 100 80 Consumer Confidence U.S. Utah January 2020 - October 2021 80 60200
M J
2020
6/7/21
S O
M50 A
0%
6/28/21
A
1% 100
4%
1/11/21 1/11/21
0J
J
JBankruptcy F M Cases A M Filed J J
D
O
12/21/2012/21/20
2020
0
M J
S
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J 2019 A Average S O N
A
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 2 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
6% 1% 2% 100 5% 0% 40
5/17/21
2020
J
3
12/21/20
O
0%
200 20
A
200
3% 4% 7% 2% 60 150 3%
4/5/21
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2% 2020 2021 40 0 400 1% FiledJ J F M A M 2019 J J Average A S O N DBankruptcy J F MCases A M
J
2021
4/26/21
400
200 800 4%
200 3% 600 0
M A M J
$0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 7% 2020 2021 Utah Vaccine Doses by Week U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 2019 Average Retail Sales 0 6% 100 7% December J F M14, A 2020 M J -J November A S O N 8, D 2021 JU.S. FCumulative M A M Case J JFatality A SRate O Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 5% 2020 2021 U.S. Utah 6% Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 4 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 4% 80 5%
3/15/21
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Utah
F
2021
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
U.S.
O N D J
2020
2/1/21
800 600
600 6% 400 5%80
400
2/22/21
Airport Passengers
100 7%
A S
200
J A S
2021
J
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
1/11/21
N D J F M A M J
M A M J
January 2019 - August 2021
12/21/20
2020 Case Fatality Rate Cumulative 2019 Average 800 March, 2020 - November 2021
Airport Passengers N D J F M A M J J A D J F 2021 M A M J J A S O 2021 Retail Sales
F
$3,000
Airport Passengers
500,000 2019 Average Retail Sales $5,000 $4,023 $5,000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J $4,023 J A S $4,000 800 2020 2021 $4,000 2019 Average Airport Passengers $3,000 600 7% $3,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% $2,000 400 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate $2,000 5% $5,000 $1,000 $4,023 4% 200 $1,000 $4,000 3% $0 J F M A M J J A 800 0 $0 J2020F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 2% $3,000 J FJ MF AM MA J MJ J A J S AO SN OD NJ FD MJ AF MM JA JM AJ S J OA 2019 Average Sales 1% 2020 2020 2021Retail2021 600 $2,000 2019 Average Retail Sales 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filedwere required to pay 0% As of October 2019, Note: marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus M increasing A M J taxable J Aretail S sales. O N D J F M A M J J A S O N sales tax, $1,000
Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Indexby Week Vaccines Doses (Thousands)Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)
2019 Average J F M A M J J A S O J 2020 F M A M J J A S O N 500,000 2020 2019 Average Source: Salt Lake City International Airport 2019 Average 0 J F M A M J J A S O 0
2021
2019 Average
2020
Confidence Index
S
2,045,849 2,045,849
J
$0 $4,000
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
$0 Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Utah 1,000,000
eek
200
1,000,000 $0
J A S
Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands)
0 SLC International Airport Passengers J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2020 2021 January 2019 - September 2021 2019 Average Airport Passengers
49
2020
1,500,000 $1,000
500,000
2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 $5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 $4,000 800 1,000,000 1,000,000 $3,000 2,500,000 600 500,000 500,000 2,000,000 $2,000 400 0 1,500,000 $1,000 0
J F M A M J
$2,000
$1,000
7% $0 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 7% 0% 6% 5%
M
20
4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
2M
Vaccines Doses by Week Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)
0 2,000,000 $2,000
1,000,000
2
1
1
2
1
1
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Prosperity Coalition Investors
“Utah’s economy continues to prosper with an October unemployment rate below pre-pandemic levels and two-year job growth that leads the nation.”
Roadmap to Prosperity Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“While Utah’s economy thrives, impacts are still uneven across industries and population groups. As we continue to work together, we can move closer to prosperity for all.”
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute