DASHBOARD
November 2021
The Roadmap to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
2
Utah’s two-year job growth is highest in the nation.
Utah’s September two-year job growth of 3.4% is the highest in the nation and one of only three states showing positive job change.
Utah’s unemployment rate drops below pre-pandemic levels. Utah‘s September unemployment rate of 2.4% is lower than the February 2019 rate of 2.5%. Utah’s unemployment rate ranks second in the nation.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – September 2021 2020
3
Job change is uneven across industries. While Utah has seen two-year job growth overall, not all industries have expanded. Jobs have declined in the Leisure & Hospitality, Other Services, Government, and Natural Resources industries.
Utah Job Change by Industry September 2019 - September 2021 3.4%
Total
2021
10.8%
Construction
100,000
6.4%
Manufacturing
Continued Claims 2019 Average
0.2%
Information
8.7%
Financial Activities 50,000
-2.3%
Leisure & Hospitality
-1.4%
Other Services
-2.2%
Government
1.0%
Unemployment Rate 12% Source: 10% Utah Department of Workforce Services 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% 0% S -2% A L T0.1%L A K E C H A M B E R -4% -6% -8%
2.4% 9/11
7/31
2.5% 8/21
7/10
2.6%
2.8% 6/19
5/8
5/29
2.7%
2.8% 4/17
3/6
3/27
2.9%
3.0% 2/13
1/2
3.3% 1/23
3.5% 12/5
4.3% 11/14
10/3
4.1% 10/24
5.0% 9/12
8/1
8/22
4.1%
4.5% 7/11
5.3% 6/20
5/9
8.6%
5/30
Education/Health Services 3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18
0
Natural Resources Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities
5.2% 4.0%
-12.6% 6.8% 6.1%
Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate September 2021
-1.3% -1.3% 3.3% 3.3%
2.0% 2.0%
6.9%
5.6%
-4.3% -4.3% -3.7% -3.7% -3.5% -3.5% -8.5% -1.1% -8.5% -1.1% -5.8% -5.8% -6.3% -6.3% -5.4% -3.0% -5.4% -1.0% -3.0% -5.2% USA -2.5% -1.0% -4.0% -5.2% USA -2.5% -4.0% 3.4% -5.0% -2.7% 3.4% -5.0% -2.7% -2.1% -2.1% -4.3% -6.5% VT -4.3% -2.3% -2.4% -2.3% -3.0% VT -6.5% -2.4% -4.3% -3.5% -3.0% -4.3% -3.5% -3.2% -3.2% NHNH -1.4% -1.4% -4.8% MA -4.8% MA -1.4% 0.6% -1.4% 0.6% -3.4% -0.5% -3.4% -0.5% -2.3% -4.9% -2.3% -5.4% -4.9% CT CT -5.4% -1.6% -1.6% -4.8% -4.8% RI RI -1.2% -1.9% -1.2% -1.9% -4.7% -4.7% NJ NJ 0.0% 0.0% -8.6% -8.6% -3.7% -3.7% MDMD -8.0% -8.0% -5.8% -5.8% DC DC -1.1% -1.1% -3.8% DE DE -3.8%
USA 4.8% 4.8% USA
3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%
6.3% 6.3% 4.9% 4.9%
-0.8% -0.8%
-3.8% -3.8%
VT 2.9% 2.9% VT NH 2.9% 2.9% NH 5.2% MA 5.2% MA CT 6.8% 6.8% CT 5.2% RIRI 5.2% NJ 7.1% 7.1% NJ MD 5.9% 5.9% MD DC 6.5% 6.5% DC DE DE 5.3% 5.3%
-12.6% -12.6%
6.6% 2.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2020
3.8% Piute
3.3% Emery
4.2% Grand
4.9% San Juan
2.5% Kane
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
2.4% 9/11
7/31
2.5% 8/21
7/10
2.6%
2.8% 6/19
5/8
5/29
2.7%
2.8% 4/17
3/6
3/27
2.9%
3.0% 2/13
1/2
3.3% 1/23
3.5% 12/5
4.3% 11/14
10/3
$500
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2020
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
4.1% 10/24
8/1
5/9
5/30
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - August 2021
$0 4.9%
Unemployment Rate 1.5%
Trad
$1,000
4.4% Wayne 6.2% Garfield
Profe
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.1% Carbon 2.3% Sanpete
5.0% 9/12
4.1% Uintah
2.6% Sevier
2.3% Washington
2021
8.6%
2.2% 2.2% Summit Salt Lake 2.2% 3.4% Wasatch Duchesne 1.8% Utah
1.6% Juab
2.3% Iron
E
Continued Claims 12% 2019 Average 10% 8% 6% 5.2% 50,000 4% 4.0% 2% 0.5% 0% -2% 0.1% -4% -6% 0 -8% -10% -12% -14% Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US Utah 3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18
2.0% Box Elder
2.1% Beaver
3.4% 3.4%
Job Change 100,000 Year-Over Percent Change, September 2021 1.5% Cache 2.0% Rich 2.2% Weber 1.9% Davis 1.7% Morgan 3.5% Dagget
2.0% Millard
-12.6% -12.6%
Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rate September 2021
2.3% Tooele
Job JobGrowth Growth
7.5% 7.5%
$ Millions
Unemployment Rate Rate Unemployment
-5.5% -5.5%
2.7% 2.7%
8/22
5.7% 5.7%
4.0% 4.0%
7.1% 7.1% 6.2% 6.2%
4.6% 4.6%
5.4% 4.0%5.4% 4.6% 6.8%4.0% 4.6% 6.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 3.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1%
5.6% 5.6%
7.5% 7.5%
3.9% 3.9%
2.9% 2.9%
4.5% 4.5%
2.4% 2.4%
3.7% 3.7%
4.1%
7.5% 7.5%
3.5% 3.5%
4.5% 7/11
2.9% 2.9%
4.8% 4.8%
5.3% 6/20
4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7%
Job Change Two-Year Percent Change, September 2021
6.2%
2021
Residential
Non-residential
Other
3.3% 4.8% 3.5% 3.7% 4.7% 2.9% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.9% 2.9% 7.1% 4.6% 4.5% 6.2% 4.0% 2.0% 7.5% 5.4% USA 4.8% 2.4% 4.0% R O A 5.6% D M A P T O R E6.8% C O V E R4.6% Y C O A LVTI T2.9% IO 3.8% 3.9% 7.5% 3.8% 4.3% NH 2.9% 4.2% 4.4% 5.7% MA 5.2% 3.0% 4.0% 4.1% 6.9% CT 6.8%
-
N
-4
S
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0J2020 2021 Source: Utah Hopkins J Department F M A Mof Health J J and A John S O N DUniversity J F (JHU) M ACoronavirus M J J A S 100 2020 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2021 Resource Center
Utah
1 Q1 2021
2020
60 40Bankruptcy Cases 60,000 Utah
2021
Airport Passengers
2019 2020 2021
600 400
0
20
0 0
Jan.Q2 Feb. Mar. Nov. Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr. Q2 Q3May Q4 Jun. Q1 Q2Jul. Q3 Aug. Q4 Q1Sep. Q2 Oct. Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec. Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1
Q1 Q22017 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 Q1 120,000 200 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 100,000 2019 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2020 J A S 80,000 120,000 2020 2021 120,000 2021 60,000 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 100,000 2019 100,000 2019 40,000 Source: United States Bankruptcy Court 80,000
80,000 20,000 60,000
S60,000 A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
J
0
S
A
S
2.5
F
1.5 1.0 2.5
M A M J
J
S
0.5 0 $3,951 1.0
10/11/2110/11/21
9/20/21 9/20/21
8/30/21 8/30/21
8/9/21 8/9/21
0
7/19/21 7/19/21
0
50 $3,000 60
6/7/21 6/7/21
150
100 $4,000 20
A
1.0 0.5 1.5
0
0.5
10/11/21
50 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40 Q1 Q1 $2,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 40 $1,000
Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the $0 20 economy will J improve F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 120,000 Source: Salt2020 Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy2021 Institute, and Utah 2019 Average Retail Sales Bureau0of Labor Statistics 100,000 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000 80,000
January 2019 - September 2021
20 40 20,000 50
200
J 0.5A
M J
9/20/21
S
50 40,000 January 2019 - September 2021 60 800 40
J
2.5 1.5
8/30/21
A
2021
8/9/21
J
O N D J
7/19/21
M A M J
A S
6/28/21 6/28/21
10/11/21
9/20/21
8/9/21
F
M A
6/28/21
2021
8/30/21
7/19/21
6/7/21
D J
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A S O N 2021 D J F M A M J J A
100,000 60 2019 Average Source: State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 80,000 50
Confidence Index Confidence Index Index Confidence
S
0 J 0F 120,000 2020
6/28/21
5/17/21
4/5/21
4/26/21
3/15/21
2/1/21
2/22/21
1/11/21
12/21/20
2020
D Q3 J FQ4 MQ1A Q2M Q3J Q4J 0 Q1 A Q1 S Q2 2021 2019 2020 2021
40 $5,000 500
J
5/17/21 5/17/21
0.5
1,500,000 40200 0J0 F M A M J J A S O N Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 1,000,000 2017 2018 200 J F M A M J J A S O N 500,000
F
6/7/21
20 50
M A M J
2020 50100 50
5/17/21
40 6020 2,000,000
100 060150 J F 200
4/26/21 4/26/21
1.0
J
M
200
4/26/21
2,273,105
100
D
2021
A
M J A F MM JA M J JA J S A O S NO DN D J JF F M M A A MM JJ JJ AA SS
4/5/21 4/5/21
1.5
Utah
M
2021following 2020 2021 Note:2020 Number of vaccines includes date listed and the 6 days. 40 Source: Utah Department of Health
3/15/21 3/15/21
Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Index (Thousands)
U.S.
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
60
150 6050 8040 2,500,000 40
F
2021
20 Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q2 2021 CEO 200 150
2.5
80 200 10060
60
0% 0
J
Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)
U.S.
100 Consumer Confidence 80 U.S. Utah January 2020 - September 2021
J
2020 2020 2021
40,000 7% 120,000 20,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Nov. Dec. 80,000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 4% 2021 60,000 3%
2% 40,000 1% 20,000 0%
M0 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. 2021 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
2021
2.5 200 1.5
Cum
40,0000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 40,000 100 20,000 20,000 U.S. Utah
$1,000 7%
$0
6% 5% 4% 3%
2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% M 2 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
M
2
Vaccines Doses by Week Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)
A
M J
D
9/20/21
J
2021
J
10/11/21
DBankruptcy J F Cases M AFiledM J
N
80 M A
2%20 20200 1%
J A S O N U.S. Utah J A S O N
8/30/21
S
M A M
8/9/21
A
J
7/19/21
J
F
2021
6/28/21
J
2021
J
2.5 Bankruptcy Cases FiledCase Fatality Utah Cumulative Rate
6/7/21
O N Bankruptcy D J F Cases M AFiled M
M
4/5/21
J2019AAverage S O
S
3/15/21
M J
A
2/22/21 2/22/21
2020
J
2/22/21
M A
0
J
2/1/21 2/1/21
S
F M A M
2021
O N D
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality1.0 Rate
2/1/21
M A M 2019 J Average J A S
O N D J
S
1.5
7% 2% 60 150 3% 6% 1% 2% 100 5% 100 0% 40 1% 4% M50 A 0% 2020 3%
1/11/21 1/11/21
F
2020
20
A S
A
200
12/21/2012/21/20
J
200 0%
J
J
U.S. Average Utah 2019
1/11/21
M A M J
5% 6% 4% 5% 80 3% 4%
12/21/20
F
2020
M A M J
2020
(Thousands) (Thousands) (Thousands)
J
1%
2021
7% Vaccine Doses by Week Utah 2019 Average Retail Sales 0 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 7% 100 December 14, 2020 - October 11, 2021 Utah CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate 2020 2021 U.S. Cumulative
eek
2%
400 040
F
5/17/21
4% 60
2000 3% 600
J
4/5/21
400 800 200
200$0
4/26/21
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Utah
J
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
U.S.
2021
3/15/21
800 600
J
2019 Average Retail Sales 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0% As of October 2019, Note: marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay 400 $1,000 M increasing A M taxable J J retail A sales. S O N D J F M A M J J A S sales tax, 2020 2021 Source: Utah State Tax Commission
2/1/21
2021
Airport Passengers
600 1% 2020 2020 $2,000
2/22/21
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 J F M A M 2019 J JAverage A S O N Airport D J FPassengers M A M J J A 2020 2021 1,000,000 $0 2019 Average Airport Passengers 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 500,000J 2020 F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2021 M A M J J A S 2020 2021 Source: Salt Lake City International 2019Airport Average Retail Sales 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 200
1/11/21
2,273,105
600 6% 400 5%80
$2,000 M A M
$5,000 0 $5,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J$3,951 J A 2020 2021 $3,951 $4,000 800 2019 Average Airport Passengers $4,000 $3,000 600 7% $3,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate $2,000 6% 400 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate $2,000 $5,000 5% $3,951 $1,000 4% 200 $4,000 $1,000 3% $0 800 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J $3,000 0 $0 2% 2020 2021 J FJ MF AM MA J M J2019 S AO SN OD NRetail J D F Sales MJ AF MM JA JM AJ SJ J A JAverage
12/21/20
$3,951
7% 100
$3,000
Airport Passengers
$0Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Utah J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2021 500,000 2020 January 2019 - July 2021 2019 Average Retail Sales
Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands)
J A
Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Indexby Confidence Index Vaccines Doses Week Vaccines Doses by Week
J
2,273,105 2,273,105
2020 Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 2019 Average 800 March, 2020 - October 2021
2021
2019 Average
$4,000 $0
J A
1,000,000
SLC International Airport Passengers 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2020 2021 January 2019 - August 2021 2019 Average Airport Passengers
A
2020
$1,000
2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 $5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 $4,000 800 1,000,000 2,500,000 1,000,000 $3,000 600 500,000 2,000,000 500,000 $2,000 400 0 1,500,000 $1,000 0
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
J
1,500,000
500,000
05
A
2,000,000 $2,0000
1,000,000
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Prosperity Coalition Investors
“Utah’s economy continues to prosper with a September unemployment rate below pre-pandemic levels and two-year job growth that leads the nation.”
Roadmap to Prosperity Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“While Utah’s economy thrives, impacts are still uneven across industries and population groups. As we continue to work together, we can move closer to prosperity for all.”
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute