2.1%
Total
2.9%
Construction Manufacturing -0.7% Information
6.2% 0.8%
Financial Activities
10.0%
Other Services Government
3.1%
Education/Health Services
3.4% 5.9%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 2.0%
Natural Resources
DASHBOARD
0.2%
Professional/Business Services
October 2023
Trade/Transportation/Utilities -0.6%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
2.1%
The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. 2.1% The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators.
1
THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS: 2012 2014 2016 US
2
2018 2020 Utah
Utah consumer sentiment falls 9.4% while U.S. sentiment falls 6.0% in October. After a slight uptick in September, Utah’s consumer sentiment dropped from 76.3 to 69.1 in October. U.S. sentiment has fallen three consecutive months as economic uncertainty continues to impact Americans.
2022
2024
Utah median home sales price remains somewhat steady in recent months.
After a 2023 peak in June, Utah’s median home sales price dropped slightly and has since remained level. High mortgage rates and limited supply limit potential home buyers’ ability to purchase homes.
Unemployment Rate September 2023
3.5% 3.5%
1.9% 1.9%
3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%
5.4% 5.4%
3.2% 3.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0%
3.7% 3.7%
3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%
3.9% 3.9%
4.0% 4.0%
3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 2.2% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8%
0.8% 0.8%
2.4% 2.4%
3.4% 3.4%
2.8% 2.8%
4.1% 4.1%
2.3% 2.3%
2.7% 2.7%
3.1% 3.1%
1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
2.6% 2.6%
USA 3.8% 3.8% USA VT 1.9% 1.9% VT NH 2.0% 2.0% NH 2.6% MA 2.6% MA CT 3.5% 3.5% CT RI 2.6% 2.6% RI NJ 4.4% 4.4% NJ MD 1.6% 1.6% MD DC 5.0% 5.0% DC DE 4.1% 4.1% DE
3.2% 3.2%
3.4% 3.4%
2.1% 2.1%
1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2%
1.6% 1.6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 1.6%
1.8% 1.8%
2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7%
1.2% 1.2%
1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2%
1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0%
2.8% 2.8%
Unemployment Rate
September inflation persisted at 3.7%, the same rate as reported in August, but lower than the 8.2% rate seen in September 2022. Several factors, including higher prices for labor-intensive services, continue to hold inflation higher than the Fed’s 2% goal.
Year-Over Job Change September 2023
3.6% 3.6% 2.7% 2.7%
3
Inflation continues.
USA 2.1% 2.1% USA VT 1.2% 1.2% VT NH 1.5% 1.5% NH MA 2.4% 2.4% MA CT 1.6% 1.6% CT RI -0.3% -0.3% RI NJ 1.9% 1.9% NJ MD 1.5% 1.5% MD DC 1.6% 1.6% DC DE 2.5% 2.5% DE
1.2% 1.2% 5.4% 5.4%
Job Growth
-0.3% -0.3%
3.4% 3.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Le
Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – September 2023
Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry September 2023 2.1%
Total
2.9%
Construction Manufacturing -0.7% Information
6.2% 0.8%
Financial Activities
10.0%
Other Services Government
3.1%
Education/Health Services
3.4% 5.9%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 2.0%
Natural Resources
0.2%
Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities -0.6%
2012
2014
2016 US
2018 2020 Utah
2022
2024
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 –June 2023
2.7% Utah
2.6% 2.9% Wasatch Duchesne
3.3% Uintah
3.1% Residential Beaver
5.0% Non-residential Piute
0.8%
2.1%
2.8% 2.7% Kane
3.7% Grand
4.2% Other Wayne
5.9% Garfield
Iron 2.3%
1.2%
1.7% 1.2%
2.4%
3.0%
DC 1.6% DE 2.5%
68.3%
68%
-0.3%
65%
2.8%
$30063.4% 64% Unemployment Rate
1.6%
63%
5.4%
$200
62.8%
62%
60%
60.2%
U.S.
Utah
J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M AM J J A 2021 2022 2023 $02020 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S 2020 2021 2022 2023
69.7% 3.4%
$30
$20
$
2.
1.
900
800 600
400 Job G 200 0
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
5
1.2%
S70% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R Job 69%Growth
2.7% 2.7% 1.9% 3.1% M 3.1% A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 3.1% 2022 4.0% ‘23 2020 2021 1.9% 3.9% 2.9% 3.4% 2.1% 3.0% 5.4% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.6% 3.4% USA 3.8% 2.6% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% VT 1.9% 4.7% 4.1% 2.9% Utah Median Home Sales Price NH 2.0% 3.4% 3.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.9% MA 2.6% 2.9% January 2020 – September 2023 3.7% 70% CT 3.5% 2.2% 3.4% 69.7% RI 2.6% $600 3.2% 69% 4.1% 68.3% NJ 4.4% 3.3% $489,000 68% MD 1.6% $500 4.1% 2.8% DC 5.0% 67.4% 67% DE 4.1%
61% $100
$40
$10
66% $400
4.0% San Juan
1.6% 1.3% 2.4% 0.9% 3.4% 1.5% USA 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% Unemployment Rate VT 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 1.5% NH 1.5% 2.3% 5.9% 2.3% 1.6% MA 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% $0 2.1% CT 1.6% 1.8% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 1.7% 2.2% 2020 2021 ‘23 RI -0.3% 0.1%2022 NJ 1.9% 3.1% 2.4% MD 1.5%
$500
$500 3.6%
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
3.3% Emery
2.8% Sevier
$1,000 2.7% $ Millions
$1,000
3.9% Carbon 3.0% Sanpete
3.2% Washington
Other
$0 3.5%
2.5% Millard
2.4% 3.0%
Non-residential
$50
2.6% Summit
2.5% Juab
$1,500
Residential
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
2.8% Salt Lake
2.8% Tooele
$60
$1,500
2.4% Cache 2.5% Rich 2.9% Weber 2.6% Davis 2.3% Morgan 3.7% Dagget
$ Millions
2024
5.4%
2.1%
Utah Unemployment Rate September 2023
2.7% Box Elder
T 1.9% H 2.0% A 2.6% T 3.5% I 2.6% J 4.4% D 1.6% C 5.0% E 4.1%
2.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.1%
A 3.8%
Tra
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
900 4
ons)
2.1%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
Profe
800
2.5
2.0
Oct-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Dec-2
Oct-2
Aug-2
Jun-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Oct-2
Dec-2
Aug-2
Jun-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Dec-2
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - September 2023
Consumer Sentiment October 2020 – October 2023 100
60 $1,000 $1,000 40 $1,000 $1,000
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
69.1 63.8
Oct-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Dec-22
Oct-22
Aug-22
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
$0 $0 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D ‘23J F M A M J 2021 2022 ‘23 MM AAC.MMGardner J J J J AA SS Policy OO NN DD Institute J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J Source: Kem 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 ‘23‘23
$02020 $0 2020
Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – September 2023
3.7%
$200 -2.0% $200 $100 $100
2003
2008
2013
69.7% 69.7% 69.7% 69.7%
3.7%
Recession $100 $100 $0 $0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F MAM J J A S 2020 F M A M JofJ Labor A S O Statistics N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S Source: Bureau 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
2021 2022 2023 $0 2020 $0 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S
900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600
2003
2008
2013
62.8%
62.8% 2023
2018
400 400 200 200 200 200 0 0 J F MAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAMJ J A S J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAMJ J A S 2020 2021 2022 2023 00 2020 J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS
J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA Note: The participation rate 2020y-axis starts at 60% to 2021better illustrate changes 2022 in the labor force2023 2023 2020 2021 2022 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Utah Taxable Retail Sales 5 January 2020 - August 2023 5
SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - August 2023 2.5 2.5
2020 2020
55 4 4
2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
44 3 3
2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Millions Millions Millions Millions
Retail Sales Billions) Retail ($($Billions) Retail Sales ($ Retail SalesSales ($ Billions) Billions)
2023
600 600 400 400
62.8% 62.8% 61% Recession 62% 62% 61% U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% J F M A M60.2% 61% J J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M AM J J A 60% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A U.S. MU.S.J J A SUtah O N D 2023 J F M AM J J A Utah 2020 60.2% 60.2% 2021 2022 2023 60% 2020 60%
33 2 2
1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
22 1 1 11 0 0
2018
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - September 2023
8.0% 70% 70% 69% 70% 70% 69% 6.0%68.3% 68.3% 68% 69% 69% 68% 68.3% 68.3% 4.0% 67.4% 67% 68% 68% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67.4% 67% 67% 66% 2.0% 65% 66% 66% 65% 64% 0.0%63.4% 65% 65% 64% 63.4% 63% 64% 63.4% 64% 63% 63.4% -2.0%
$489,000 $489,000
$500 $500 4.0% $400 $400
$300 $300 0.0% $200 $200
Utah Aug-23
Millions $$Millions $$ Millions Millions
U.S.
62% 63% 63% 62%
$489,000 $489,000
$600 $600 $500 6.0% $500
$400 $400 2.0% $300 $300
20 $500 $500 $500 0$500
$600 8.0% $600
Sales Price Thousands) Sales ($($Thousands) Sales Price ($ Sales PricePrice ($ Thousands) Thousands)
$1,500 $1,500 80 $1,500 $1,500
1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5
J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J A 00 2020
0.5 0.5 0 0 J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A SOND JF MA M J J A
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020
2021
2022
2023
00 2020
2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
2020 2020
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA
Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA 2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION