Roadmap to Prosperity: September 2022

Page 1

Total

3.4%

Construction Construction

8.5% 8.5%

Manufacturing Manufacturing

2.8% 2.8%

Information Information

8.8% 8.8%

Financial Financial Activities Activities -2.5% -2.5% Leisure Leisure && Hospitality Hospitality

6.5% 6.5%

Other Other Services Services

1.6% 1.6%

Government Government

1.5% 1.5%

Education/Health Education/Health Services Services

5.4% 5.4%

Natural Natural Resources Resources

8.7% 8.7%

Professional/Business Professional/Business Services Services

-0.3% -0.3% 4.0% September 4.0% 2022

Trade/Transportation/Utilities Trade/Transportation/Utilities

DASHBOARD 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -8% -10% -10% -12% -12% -14% -14%

3.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4%

The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, 2011 2012 2015 2017 2020 tracks and leading measures, and shares salient indicators. 2011 timely 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2016 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 US Utah US

Utah

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

Utah’s low unemployment rate continues. Utah’s August unemployment rate of 2.0% continues an 18-month trend of an unemployment rate below 3.0%.

2

Home prices begin to stabilize. After rapid housing increases over the last year, Utah’s median home sales price has begun to stabilize falling from $535,050 in May to $500,000 in August 2022.

Unemployment Rate August 2022

3.7% 3.7%

2.7% 2.7%

4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1%

3.1% 3.1%

2.0% 2.0%

3.5% 3.5%

3.4% 3.4% 4.4% 4.4%

2.3% 2.3%

4.1% 4.1%

3.1% 3.1%

2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9%

4.8% 4.8%

3.1% 3.1%

4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 4.2% 2.1% 4.5% 4.5%2.8%4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.6% 2.8% 3.6% 4.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5%

4.6% 4.6%

2.7% 2.7%

USA USA VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE

3.7% 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.1% 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5%

2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%

4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 3.9%

2.9% 2.9%

3.4% 3.4%

1.9% 1.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

3.8% 3.8%

3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4%

3.1% 3.1%

2.8% 2.8%

2.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.8%

4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.6% 4.0% 1.6% 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 1.0% 2.9% 1.0% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 2.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.7% 3.1% 3.7% 1.8% 1.8% 4.8% 1.2% 4.8% 1.2% 5.6% 5.6% 2.4% 2.4%

2.7% 2.7%

5.1% 5.1%

2.2% 2.2%

4.1% 4.1%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate

Utah’s consumer confidence rose in August after three consecutive months of decline. National confidence also increased.

Year-Over Job Change August 2022

3.7% 3.7% 2.8% 2.8%

3

Consumer confidence rises.

USA USA 3.8% 3.8% VT VT 2.5% 2.5% NH NH 2.4% 2.4% MA MA 4.1% 4.1% CT CT 2.6% 2.6% RI 4.0% RI 4.0% NJ NJ 5.4% 5.4% MD MD 2.6% 2.6% DC DC 2.6% 2.6% DE 2.8% DE 2.8%

2.3 2.3% % 5.1% 5.1%

Job Job Growth Growth

1.0% 1.0%

5.6% 5.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


E

Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – August 2022

Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry August 2022 Total

3.4%

Construction

8.5%

Manufacturing

2.8%

Information Financial Activities

8.8% -2.5%

Leisure & Hospitality

6.5%

Other Services

1.6%

Government

1.5%

Education/Health Services

5.4%

Natural Resources

8.7%

Professional/Business Services

Utah Unemployment Rate August 2022

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 – June 2022

1.8% Utah

2.3% Sanpete

$1,500 Residential 2.3% Beaver 4.1% 2.7%

2.8% 2.9%

2.7%

$ Millions

4.4%

2.5%

67% $500 66%

1.0%

San Juan USA 3.8% 2.5% 2.4% 4.1% 2.6% 4.0% 5.4% 2.6% M J 2.6% 2.8%

68.3%

68% 67%

67.4%

$30

$20

3.4%

2.5%

2022

3.1%

4.7%

4.1%

4.2% 4.0% 4.5% 3.9% 2.8% 2.6% 3.8% 3.4%

4.1%

4.6%

VT 2.1% NH 2.0% MA 3.6% CT 68.1% 4.1% RI 2.8% $500,000 NJ 4.0% MD 4.3% DC 5.1% DE 4.5%

3.5%

2.7%

64% 63.4% 4.1% $300 63% Unemployment Rate 1.9% 62% $200 61% $100 60% $0

4

3.9%

900

800 600 400

62.4% 5.1%

U.S.

60.2%

Utah

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

2020

$

4.8%

USA 3.7%

3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3.6% 3.5%

67.4%

4.

2021

Job Gro 200 0

2022

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

2020

2021

2022

Source: UtahRealEstate.com 5.6%

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R 69%

2021

$400 65%

4.9%4.0%

VT NH MA CT RI NJ 1.7% 5.9% MD $0 2.2% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A5.1% S O N D J F MDC A 2020Department of Workforce 2021 2022 DE Source: Utah Services

Job Growth

2.3%

4.4%

68.3% $600 68%

2.3 % 5.1%

2.0%

4.1%

2.8% 3.3%

3.1%

2.5% Utah Median Home Sales Price 3.5% January 2020 – August 2022 3.1% 3.4% 69%

3.0% Grand

3.5% 4.0% 1.6% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6% 3.8% 2.9% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 3.3% $500 3.8% Washington Kane 3.7% 3.0% 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 3.7% 1.8% 4.8% 1.2% Unemployment Rate 5.6% 2.4% 1.6%

4.6%

3.1% 2.8% 2.3% M A M J J A S O N D J 1.9% F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 2.1% 2.6%

2.5%

5.9% 1.8% Garfield

3.7% 3.7% 2020 2.7%

2.9% Emery

$40

$10

3.4% Uintah

Non-residential 3.8% Other 3.6% Piute Wayne 3.1%

$500

$0

2.5% Sevier

Iron

$1,000

3.1% Carbon

2.0% Millard

$ Millions

2.8% Duchesne

Other Sales Price ($ thousands)

2.0% Wasatch

Non-residential

$50

1.8% Summit

1.8% Juab

$1,000 4.8% 2.1%

Residential

Sales Price ($ thousands)

2.0% Salt Lake

2.2% Tooele

$60

$1,500

1.7% Cache 2.0% Rich 2.1% Weber 1.9% Davis 1.7% Morgan 4.3% Dagget

022

2.1% 2.0% 3.6% 4.1% 2.8% 4.0% 4.3% 5.1% 4.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 US Utah

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.0% Box Elder

3.7%

3.4%

Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.0%

5 4

800

2.5

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

900

68.1%

ions)

3.4%

Tra

3.8%

-0.3%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

3.8%

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%

Profe

2.0


Consumer Confidence October 2020 – August 2022 100

Residential Residential Residential Residential

Non-residential Non-residential Non-residential Non-residential

$600 $600 $600 $600 $500 $500

Other Other Other Other

Sales Price thousands) Sales Price ($($thousands) Sales Sales Price Price ($ ($thousands) thousands)

$1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500

Millions $$Millions $$Millions Millions

$300 $300 $200 $200 $200 $200 $100 $100

$500 $500 $500 $500 O N D J F M A M J J A $0 2021 $02020 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J $0 $0 2020 2020 2021 2022

S

$100 $100 O $0 $0

Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – June 2022

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

2020 2020

2021 2021

J

A

M A M J J A M A M J J A

2022 2022

M M AA M M JJ JJ AA

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - August 2022

69% 69% 68.3% 68.3% 69% 68% 69% 68.3% 68% 68.3% 68% 67.4% 67% 68% 67.4% 67% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67% 66% 66% 65% 66% 65% 65% 64% 65% 63.4% 64% 63.4% 64% 63% 64% 63.4% 63.4% 63%

68.1% 68.1% 68.1% 68.1%

900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600 600 600

62.4% 62.4% 62.4% 62.4%

63% 62% 63% 62% 62% 61% 62% 61%

U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% 60.2% 60% 61% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M U.S. JU.S.J A S OUtah N D J F M A M J J J F M A 60.2% M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S Utah O N D 2022 J F M A M J J 60% 60.2% 60% 2020 2020

N

F M A M J J A 2022 S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F 2020 $0 2021 2022 $0 2020 FF M A M J J A M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M A M J J A SS OO NN DD JJ FF M

M AA M AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J M M JJ JJ Policy Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute 2021 M A M J J A S O N D J2022F M A M J 2020 2020 2021 2022

2021

400 400 400 400 200 200 200 200 00 JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA 2021 2022 0 2020 2021 2022 0 2020 JJ FF M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M AA M M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2022FF M M JJ JJ AA 2020 2021

2022

M AA M JJ FF M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ 2021 2020 2021 2022 Note: The2020 y-axis starts at 60% to better illustrate changes in the labor force 2022 participation rate Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Utah Taxable Retail Sales 55 January 2020 - July 2022

SLC International Airport Passengers 2.5 January 2020 - July 2022 2.5

2020

5 5 44 4 4

2021

2022

2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0

33 3 3

Millions Millions Millions Millions

Retail Sales Billions) Retail Sales ($($Billions) Retail Retail Sales Sales ($($Billions) Billions)

Utah $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000

$500 $500 $400 $400 $400 $400 $300 $300

$1,000 $1,000 50 $1,000 $1,000

0

U.S.

22 2 2 11 1 1 00

2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 0 J2020 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J 0 2020

2021

2022

2020 2020

2021 2021

2022 2022

JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ

Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J 2020 0 2021 2022 0 2020

JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M M AA M M JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF M 2020 2020

2021 2021

2022 2022

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


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