2.5%
Total
1.6%
Construction Manufacturing -0.2% Information
1.8%
Financial Activities
1.3% 8.3%
Other Services 3.3%
Government
4.3%
Education/Health Services
9.7%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 5.0%
Natural Resources
DASHBOARD
0.2% September 2023
Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities -0.3%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
2.5%
The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. 2.0% The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators.
1
THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS: 2012 2014 2016 US
2
2018 2020 Utah
Inflation increases second month in a row, yet remains low compared to recent highs.
2022
Inflation reached 3.7% in August, up from July’s 3.2% but far below the 2022 peak of 9.1%. A surge in energy prices largely contributed to August’s increase.
Utah’s median home sales price experiences a slight drop in July.
3.0% 3.0% 5.4% 5.4%
1.9% 1.9%
2.9% 2.9%
2.5% 2.5%
4.6% 4.6% 3.8% 3.8%
3.1% 3.1% 3.7% 3.7%
A higher share of Utah workers participate in the labor force than the nation -- Utah’s labor force participation rate continues to rank higher than any other state.
Year-Over Job Change August 2023
3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4%
Utah’s labor force participation rate remains high.
After an early summer rebound, Utah’s median home sales price fell slightly to $487,000. Mortgage rates continue to climb, constraining home buyers’ purchasing power.
Unemployment Rate August 2023 2.5% 2.5%
3
2024
1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 2.0% 2.9% 2.0%
2.9% 2.9%
2.2% 2.2% 3.7% 3.7%
3.9% 3.9%
4.1% 3.4% 4.1% 3.4%
2.7% 2.7%
1.6% 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
3.5% 3.5%
3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 2.1% 3.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3%
3.9% 3.9%
2.3% 2.3%
2.5% 2.5%
3.1% 3.1%
4.3% 4.3%
USA 3.8% 3.8% USA VT 1.8% 1.8% VT NH 1.8% 1.8% NH 2.6% MA 2.6% MA CT 3.6% 3.6% CT RI 2.7% 2.7% RI NJ 4.2% 4.2% NJ MD 1.7% 1.7% MD DC 5.0% 5.0% DC DE 4.1% 4.1% DE
2.5% 2.5%
2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8%
1.7% 1.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
1.9% 1.9%
1.5% 1.5%
1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3%
1.5% 1.5%
1.4% 1.4%
2.8% 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3%1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3%
1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0%
1.1% 1.1%
1.2% 1.2%
3.1% 3.1%
2.8% 2.8%
Unemployment Rate
1.8% 1.8%
USA 2.0% 2.0% USA VT 1.2% 1.2% VT NH 2.0% 2.0% NH MA 2.7% 2.7% MA CT 1.6% 1.6% CT RI -0.5% -0.5% RI NJ 2.2% 2.2% NJ MD 1.2% 1.2% MD DC 1.5% 1.5% DC DE 2.1% 2.1% DE
1.4% 1.4% 5.4% 5.4%
Job Growth
-0.5% -0.5%
4.3% 4.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Le
Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – August 2023
Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry August 2023 2.5%
Total
1.6%
Construction -0.2%
Manufacturing Information
1.8%
Financial Activities
1.3% 8.3%
Other Services 3.3%
Government
4.3%
Education/Health Services
9.7%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 5.0%
Natural Resources 0.2%
Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities -0.3%
2014
2016 US
2018 2020 Utah
2022
2024
3.3% Residential Beaver
5.0% Non-residential Piute
$ Millions
3.1% Emery
3.7% Grand
4.3%
4.4% Other Wayne
5.6% Garfield
2.6% Iron 2.3%
$1,000
$500
1.6% 2.9%
2.5%
1.9%
1.8%
1.5%
1.6%
2.7% 1.9% Kane
1.3% 1.4%
1.5%
2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% Unemployment 1.2% 1.4% 1.9%Rate 2.7% 1.3%
1.2%
1.7%
68.3%
68%
-0.5%
2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 3.1% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2.9% 2022 3.9% ‘23 2020 3.0% 2021 1.9% 3.7% 2.9% 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 5.4% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.4% USA 3.8% 4.1% 3.4% 2.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% VT 1.8% 4.6% 4.0% Utah Median Home Sales Price NH 1.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.8% MA 2.6% 3.0% 3.7%2023 2.8% 2.7% January 2020 – July 70% CT 3.6% 2.1% 3.3% RI 69.8% 2.7% $600 3.2% 69% 4.1% 68.3% NJ 4.2% 3.3% $487,000 68% MD 1.7% $500 3.9% 2.7% DC 5.0% 67.4% 67% DE 4.1%
65%
2.8%
$30063.4% 64% Unemployment Rate
1.7%
63%
USA 2.0%
2.4% 5.4%
5.4%
$200
62.8%
62%
61% $100 60%
60.2%
U.S.
Utah
J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M AM J J A 2021 2022 2023 $02020 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2020 2021 2022 2023
$30
$20
69.8% 4.3%
2$
2.0
900
800 600
400 Job G 200 0
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
5
1.4%
S70% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R Job 69%Growth
$40
$10
66% $400
4.1% San Juan
VT 1.2% NH 2.0% 1.8% MA 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% $0 CT 1.6% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1.8% 2.1% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 2020 2021 2.8% ‘23 RI -0.5% 0.0%2022 1.8% NJ 2.2% MD 1.2% 1.1% 3.1% DC 1.5% DE 2.1% 2.0%
$500 3.6%
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
2.8% Sanpete 2.7% Sevier
2.9%2.9% Washington
3.4% Uintah
3.8% Carbon
2.4% Millard
2.2%
$1,000
$0 3.4%
2.4% Juab
$1,500
Other
$50
2.5% Summit 2.5% 3.0% Wasatch Duchesne
Non-residential
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
2.6% Utah
Residential
$ Millions
2.7% Salt Lake
$60
$1,500
2.3% Cache 2.4% Rich 2.9% Weber 2.5% Davis 2.1% Morgan 3.7% Dagget
2.7% Tooele
5.4%
2012
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 –June 2023
2024
T 1.8% H 1.8% A 2.6% T 3.6% I 2.7% J 4.2% D 1.7% C 5.0% E 4.1%
2.0%
Utah Unemployment Rate August 2023
2.6% Box Elder
A 3.8%
2.5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0%
%
Tra
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
900 4
ons)
2.5%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
Profe
800
2.5
2.0
Aug-
Jun-
Apr-
Feb-
Dec-
Oct-
Aug-
Jun-
Apr-
Feb-
Oct-
Dec-
Jun-
Aug-
Apr-
Feb-
Dec-
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - August 2023
Consumer Sentiment October 2020 – August 2023 100 Other Other
71.5
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
69.5
Utah Aug-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Dec-22
Oct-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
$487,000 $487,000
3.7%
$400 $400 2.0% $300 $300
U.S.
$0 $0 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D ‘23J F M A M J 2021 2022 ‘23 MM AAC.MMGardner J J J J AA SS Policy OO NN DD Institute J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J Source: Kem 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 ‘23‘23
$02020 $0 2020
Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – August 2023
$300 $300 0.0% $200 $200 -2.0% $200 $200 $100 $100
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 $100 $100 Recession $0 $0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J 2020 F M A M of J JLabor A S O Statistics N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A M J J Source: Bureau 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
2021 2022 2023 $0 2020 $0 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - August 2023
8.0% 70% 70% 69% 70% 70% 69% 6.0%68.3% 68.3% 68% 69% 69% 68% 68.3% 68.3% 4.0% 67.4% 67% 68% 68% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67.4% 67% 67% 66% 2.0% 65% 66% 66% 65% 0.0%63.4% 64% 65% 65% 64% 63.4% 63% 64% 63.4% 64% 63% 63.4%
69.8% 69.8% 69.8% 69.8%
3.7%
900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600 600 600 400 400
-2.0%
62% 63% 63% 62%
$487,000 $487,000
$600 $600 $500 6.0% $500 $500 $500 4.0% $400 $400
20 $500 $500 $500 0$500
$600 8.0% $600
Sales Price Thousands) Sales ($($Thousands) Sales Price ($ Sales PricePrice ($ Thousands) Thousands)
Non-residential Non-residential
Millions $$Millions $$ Millions Millions
60 $1,000 $1,000 40 $1,000 $1,000
Residential Residential
Jun-23
$1,500 $1,500 80 $1,500 $1,500
2003
2008
2013
62.8% 62.8%
2018
2023
62.8% 62.8% 61% 62% 62% 61% Utah RecessionU.S. 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% J F M A M60.2% 61% J J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M AM J J A 60% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A U.S. MU.S.J J A SUtah O N D 2023 J F M AM J J A Utah 2020 60.2% 60.2% 2021 2022 2023 60% 2020 60%
400 400 200 200 200 200 0 0 J F MAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAMJ J A J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAMJ J A 2020 2021 2022 2023 00 2020 J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Utah Taxable Retail Sales 5 January 2020 - July 2023 5
SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - July 2023 2.5 2.5
2020 2020
55 4 4
2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
44 3 3
2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
33 2 2
2022 2022
2023 2023
1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
22 1 1 11 0 0
2021 2021
Millions Millions Millions Millions
Retail Sales Billions) Retail ($($Billions) Retail Sales ($ Retail SalesSales ($ Billions) Billions)
J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA Note: The participation rate 2020y-axis starts at 60% to 2021better illustrate changes 2022 in the labor force2023 2023 2020 2021 2022 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J 00 2020
0.5 0.5 0 0 J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O ND J FM AM J J A S OND J F MA M J J
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020
2021
2022
2023
00 2020
2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
2020 2020
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J
Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J 2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION