DASHBOARD
April 2021
The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
2
Utah’s unemployment rate drops to 3.0%.
Utah Job change is neutral. After 11 consecutive months of decline, Utah’s job change is neutral at 0.0%. Utah’s job change has continually improved indicating job growth is likely coming soon!
Utah’s 3.0% unemployment rate nears pre-pandemic levels and ranks 2nd in the nation. This marks the sixth consecutive month of decline.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – March 2021 140,000
Continued Claims
120,000
More than one million vaccines had been administered in Utah as of mid-March. Utah’s COVID-19 cases have been declining or remaining steady for the last several weeks.
Utah Job Change by Industry February 2020 - February 2021 2019 Average
Total
0.0%
Construction
5.0%
Manufacturing
100,000
1.4%
Information
80,000
-3.5%
Financial Activities
60,000
Leisure & Hospitality
40,000
4.8% -8.5%
Other Services
20,000
-1.4%
Government
3.8% 10.4%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
5.0%
4.1%
Nov Dec Jan Feb 4.3%
Unemployment Rate
4%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2% -4%
S A -6% LT L A K E C H A M B E R -8% -10% $1,000 -12%
-3.7%
Education/Health Services Mar
Apr
NA
Mar
3.5% 3.3% 3.0%
0
3
Utah surpasses one million vaccine doses.
Natural Resources
-2.8% -10.0%
Professional/Business Services
3.8%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
3.8%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
-6.0%
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate February 2021
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, February 2021
5.6% 4.7% 4.7%
3.3% 3.3%
3.1% 3.1% 6.6% 6.6%
8.5% 8.5% 6.9% 6.9%
3.2% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4%
8.3% 8.3%
5.0% 5.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 4.2% 5.2% 4.2% 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.2% 5.2% 6.3% 6.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 7.4% 4.0% 7.4%4.0%
6.9% 6.9%
USA USA 6.2% 6.2% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE
7.6% 7.6%
6.6% 6.6%
0.9% 0.9%
4.7% 4.7%
-10.7% -10.7%
3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 7.1% 7.1% 8.5% 8.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.8% 7.8% 6.2% 6.2% 8.1% 8.1% 6.3% 6.3%
-9.5% -9.5%
-3.0% -3.0%
-4.1% -4.1%
-5.4% -5.4%
-9.2% -9.2%
-7.2% -7.2%
-5.5% -5.5% -5.2% -5.2%
2.9% 2.9%
9.2% 9.2%
-5.7% -7.5% -7.5%-4.5% -4.5% -5.7% -5.5% -5.5% -4.6% -4.6% -5.0% -5.0% -5.3% -5.3% -3.9% -3.9% -3.6% -3.6% -5.7% -5.7% -3.2% -3.2% -3.9% -3.9% -4.6% -4.6% -4.0% -4.0% -3.2% -3.2% -4.6% -4.6% -7.9% -7.9% -6.3% -6.3%
Job JobGrowth Growth
-17.6% -17.6%
E Continued Claims
2019 Average
Profe
Year-Over Percent Change, February 2021 100,000 2% 60,000 0.5% 0% 0.1% 40,000 -2% -4% 20,000 -6% -8%0
5.5% Summit
-10% -12%
4.2% 6.7% Wasatch Duchesne 2.9% Utah
7.7% Uintah
4.2% Emery
5.6% Grand
3.6% Sevier 5.1% Piute
Mar
Apr
3.8% 10.4%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
5.0%
4.1%
Unemployment Rate
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US
7.0% Garfield
8.0% San Juan
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - February 2021
$500
$0
3.8% Kane
Mar Apr May Jun 2020 Residential
Unemployment Rate
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
Utah
$1,000
5.4% Wayne
2.3%
Nov Dec Jan Feb 4.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.6% Carbon 3.4% Sanpete
0.0%
-6.0%
-14%
$ Millions
3.6% Salt Lake
Trad
80,000 4%
2.4% Cache 3.0% Rich 3.6% Weber 3.1% Davis 2.7% Morgan 4.0% Dagget
2.3% Juab
3.7% Washington
VT -8.7% VT -8.7% NH -5.7% NH -5.7% MA -9.0% MA -9.0% CT -7.3% CT -7.3% RIRI -9.2% -9.2% NJ -8.4% NJ -8.4% MD -5.9% MD -5.9% DC -9.0% DC -9.0% DE -5.3% DE -5.3%
0.9% 0.9%
120,000 Job Change
2.9% Box Elder
3.5% Iron
USA USA -6.0% -6.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rate February 2021
3.4% Beaver
-11.0% -11.0% -7.3% -7.3%
-5.1% -5.1%
140,000
2.8% Millard
-7.6% -7.6%
-17.6% -17.6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.7% Tooele
-5.2% -5.2%
-7.3% -7.3%
-2.3% -2.3%
-5.5% -5.5%
0.0% 0.0%
9.2% 9.2%
Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate
-6.7% -6.7%
Mar
3.0% 3.0%
8.9% 8.9% 7.3% 7.3%
5.2% 5.2%
3.6% 3.6%
-2.3% -2.3%
-7.9% -7.9%
NA
8.3% 8.3%
3.8% 3.8%
2.9% 2.9%
5.3% 5.3%
-6.1% -6.1%
4.8% 4.8%
4.3% 4.3%
3.5% 3.3% 3.0%
6.1% 6.1%
3.9%
8.0%
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2021 Non-residential
Other
5.6% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction 4.8% 3.9% 4.7%Database 4.3% 6.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2.9% 8.9% 5.2% 5.3% 7.3% 3.6% 3.1% 8.3% 5.0% USA 6.2% 3.0% 7.4% 4.0% 6.2% 6.6% VT 3.1% 8.5% R O A D M A 3.2% P T O 4.2% RECOV E R Y 5.2% C O A LNHI T3.3% IO 5.2% 5.7% 4.9% MA 7.1% 6.9% 4.4% 4.5% CT 8.5% 5.2% 8.3% RI 7.3% 6.3% 4.0% 4.8%
-
-7.9
-
N
-9.5%
80,000
100,000 40,000
Source: 60,000United States Bankruptcy Court
80,000 20,000
60,000 S40,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R
2020 2021
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
U.S. MayUtah Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Jan-19 Apr Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jun Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Jul Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Aug Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Sep May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Oct Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov Oct-20 Dec Nov-20 Jan Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb Feb-21 Mar
Mar
Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar
Oct Oct
Sep Sep
Aug Aug
Jul Jul
Jun Jun
May May
Apr Apr
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
Mar Mar
Feb Mar
3/15
Jan
Dec
3/8 Nov
3/1
2/22
Oct
Sep 2/15
2/8
Aug 2/1
1/25
1/18 Jul
Jun 1/11
1/4 2021
May12/28
3/15
3/8
3/1
2/22
2/15
40,000
20,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Nov. Dec. 80,000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 4% 2021 60,000 6%
3%
40,000 2% 0%
0
Feb Mar
1% 20,000
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2020
2021
Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 150
1,200
Cumula
20,000 40,000 100 0 20,000
2020 2019 2021
January 2019 - March 2021
7% 120,000
Jan
2020
2021
Dec
2019
2020
2019 Average Retail Sales Bureau0of Labor Statistics 100,000 2019Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 80,000 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000
Nov
2018
the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the 20 $0 economyJan will improve Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 120,000 Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, and Utah
Oct
2017
4000 120,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 200 100,000 2019 120,000 0 80,000 2020 100,000 2019 2021 120,000 60,000
60
400 60 $3,000 300 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 $2,000 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 40 $1,000 Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe
Sep
3/15
3/8
3/1
2/22
2/15
2/8
2/1
1/25
1/18
1/11
1/4 2021
12/28
12/21
0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Jan 120,000 Dec Jan 2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2021 60 2021 100,000 2020 2019 2019 Average Airport Passengers Source: 50State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 60 80,000 2020 5040 2021 60,000 Utah Bankruptcy Cases 40 60 40,000 January 20 2019 - February 2021 50 20,000 1,000 20 899 40 0 0 Q1 Q3Mar. Q4 Q1 Q3 Jun. Q4 Q1 Q3 Sep. Q4 Q1 Q3Dec. Q4 Jan. Q2 Feb. Apr.Q2May Jul. Q2 Aug. Oct. Q2 Nov. 800 2018 2019 2020 599 2017 20 0 600 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 365
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
3 Q4
0
Confidence Index Confidence Index Confidence Index
Feb
12/14 2020
1,066,382 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 0 0JanQ1Feb Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22021 Q3 0 Q4 1,000,000 0 2020 2017 Apr May Jun 2018 2020Feb Jul Aug Sep2019 Oct Nov Dec Jan 20 Jan Feb Mar 2020 2021 500,000
2/8
400
40
2/1
800
Aug
Utah
1/25
Confidence Index
U.S.
1/18
Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)
60 120 50 40 80 40 4090 2,000,000 20 60 6020 20 1,500,000 0 30
Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)
1,200
150 60 100 60
2021 2021
1,200 150 1,200 150 CEO 20 120Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q4 2020 800 120 90 060 800 90 60Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1,200 150 50 400 2021 60 2020 30 400 40 120 $5,000 800 30 $3,293 0 90 0 $4,000 0 020
1/11
2021
U.S. Utah Consumer Confidence 80 U.S. Utah 80 January 2020 - February 2021
Jun
2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Note: Number of vaccines includes date listed and the following 6 days. 2020 402020 Source: Utah Department of Health
1/4 2021
100
0 0%60
May
Source: Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 100 Jan Resource Center
1%
0
Cumulative Vaccines (thousands) Cumulative Vaccines (thousands) Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
0
2021
0
Apr
2020 0
2%20
12/14 Apr 2020
Mar
0% 200 20
12/14 12/14 2020 2020 12/21 12/21 12/28 12/28 1/4 2021 1/4 2021 1/11 1/11 1/18 1/18 1/25 1/25 2/1 2/1 2/8 2/8 2/15 2/15 2/22 2/22 3/1 3/1 3/8 3/8 3/15 3/15
Jan-19 Jan-19 Apr Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jun Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Jul Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Aug Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Sep May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Oct Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Nov Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec Nov-20 Jan Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar Feb-21
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1,000 2020 Case Fatality Rate 2021 Cumulative 1,000 899 2019 Average 899Airport Passengers 800 2020 - March 2021 March, 800 599 7%600 599 100 365 600 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality 365 Rate 6% U.S. Utah Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 400 1,000 5% 400 80 899 200 4% 800 200 3%60 599 0 600 2% 0 365 40 1% 400
12/14 2020
Retail Sales
Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)
2019Airport Average Source: Salt Lake City International
Mar
2021
$3,293
4% $4,000 1,000 200 899 3%$0$0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan $3,000 800 2020 2021 2% 0 2020 2021 2019Average Average RetailSales Sales 599 2019 Retail 1% $2,000 600 Note: pay 365 0% As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to $1,000 sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. 400 Source: Utah State Tax Commission 2021 $02020 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 7% 2020 2021 Utah Vaccine Doses2019 by Week 7% Average Retail Sales U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% 0 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 6% 100 December 14, 2020 - March 15, 2021Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 5% 5% U.S. Utah 4% 4%80 1,200 150 3% 3% 7% 2% 120 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 60 2% 6% 800 1% Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 90 1% 5% 0% 100 0% 4%4060 400 U.S. Utah 3% 2020 2021 30 802020 2021
Mar
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
0 500,000 2020
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality 365 Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Cumulative Vaccines (thousands)
Jan-21 Feb-21
2021
AirportPassengers Passengers Airport
$3,000
$1,000
$0
7% 6% 5%
$5,000
Vaccines Doses by Week (thousands)
2019Average Average 2019
2021
Airport Passengers
400 5% $1,000 $1,000
by Week (thousands) Confidence ConfidenceVaccines Index Doses VaccinesIndex Doses by Week (thousands)
2020
2019 Average
$2,000 $2,000 6%
ousands)
800 $3,000 500,000 500,000 2,000,000 599 600 $2,000 365 00 1,500,000 Jan Feb FebMar MarApr AprMay MayJun Jun Jul Jul Aug AugSep SepOct OctNov NovDec DecJan Jan 400 Jan $1,000 1,066,382 2021 2020
2021
Retail Sales
599
7% 600
899
0
365
$3,000 $3,000
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
Jan 2021
800
$3,293 1,066,382 1,066,382
1,000 $4,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
2020
$4,000 $0
$2,000 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
$3,293 $3,293 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 899 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
0
1,000
$4,000 $4,000
$5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
$0
2019 Average
$5,000 $5,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
1,000,000 200
Utah $0 Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 500,0002020 January 2019 - January 2021
12/21
2021
Airport Passengers
2021
1,066,382 Airport Passengers
2019 Average
12/28
2019 Average
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
12/21
SLC International Airport Passengers 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug January 2019 2020 - February 2021
82
2020
$1,000
1,000,000
Jul
500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
4% 3% 2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% 4%
20
3% 2% 1% 0%
Doses by Week (thousands) Vaccines Doses by WeekVaccines (thousands)
2,000,000 0 $2,000 1,500,000
1,066,382 1,000,000
15020
120
90
60
30 150
0 120
90
60
30
0
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors
“Utah’s unemployment rate of 3.0% nears pre-pandemic levels, showing Utah’s economic strength. We continue to lead the nation in economic recovery.”
Roadmap to Recovery Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“With Utah surpassing one million vaccine doses we are approaching both a health and economic recovery for our community. With continued perseverance, we can emerge stronger.”
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute