DASHBOARD
January 2021
The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
2
Taxable Retail Sales See Year-Over Growth Despite the impacts of the pandemic, taxable retail sales have grown year-over. September 2020 saw $3.5 million in taxable retail sales compared to $2.8 million in September 2019.
Unemployment Claims Rise Slightly Continued unemployment claims have steadily fallen since early May. Toward the end of November, claims rose slightly in the wake of a surge in coronavirus cases.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – December 12, 2020 140,000
Continued Claims
120,000
3
Utah’s job change ranks second in the nation November year-over job change shows job losses in nearly every state. Utah’s job change of -0.2% ranks second in the nation with job change nearing neutral.
Utah Job Change by Industry October 2019 – November 2020 Total
2019 Average
-0.2%
Construction
4.5%
Manufacturing
100,000
2.7%
Information
80,000
-5.4%
Financial Activities
60,000
Leisure & Hospitality
40,000
4.4% -12.6%
Other Services
5.0%
20,000
Government
-0.7%
0
Education/Health Services
-0.8%
21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 2229 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 2128 5 12
Mar.
Apr.
3.8% 10.4%
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
5.0%
4.1%
Dec.
Natural Resources
4.3% NA
Professional/Business Services
Nov.
Unemployment Rate
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
4%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
3.6%
-0.2%
-4%
-6.0%
-6%
S A -8% LT L A K E C H A M B E R $1,000 -12%
-1.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2%
$1,200 -10%
-12.6%
990,732,146 896,628,754
1,109,473,192 998,016,752 749,947,333
1,138,540,188 1,122,148,652
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate November 2020
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, November 2020 -5.5% -5.5%
6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
4.9%
4.5%
4.8% 4.8%
10.1% 10.1%
5.0% 5.0%
6.4% 6.4%
8.2% 8.2%
5.6% 5.6% 5.9% 5.9%
7.5% 7.5%
6.6% 6.6%
5.7% 5.7% 6.2% 6.2%4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 5.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 6.2% 4.4% 6.2% 4.4% 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 4.4% 4.4% 5.7% 6.9% 5.0% 6.9%5.0%
8.1% 8.1%
8.3% 8.3%
8.1% 8.1%
-2.8% -2.8%
-6.1% -6.1%
6.4% 6.4%
-7.6% -7.6%
USA USA 6.7% 6.7% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE
3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 6.7% 6.7% 8.2% 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 10.2% 10.2% 76.8% 76.8% 7.5% 7.5% 5.1% 5.1%
-2.7% -2.7%
-0.2% -0.2%
-4.9% -4.9%
-7.6% -7.6% -2.8% -2.8%
-4.7% -4.7% -3.8% -3.8%
-5.6% -5.6%
3.1% 3.1%
Job JobGrowth Growth
10.2% 10.2%
0.7% 0.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rate November 2020
Pro
6.0% 9.9% Wasatch Duchesne 4.3% Utah
11.3% Uintah
6.1% Carbon 4.4% Sanpete
-0.2%
-4% 20,000 -6%
-6.0%
-8% 0 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 2229 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 2128 5 12 -10%Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. -12% 3.8% 10.4% 8.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% NA -14% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment Rate 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US
5.1% Emery
8.4% Grand
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - October 2020 $1,200
7.2% Wayne 9.7% Garfield
11.2% San Juan
1,109,473,192 998,016,752
1,138,540,188 1,122,148,652
749,947,333 707,711,597
$600 $400 $200 6.0%
Unemployment Rate
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
896,628,754
$800
$0
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
990,732,146
$1,000
5.4% Kane
2.7%
Utah
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.8% Sevier 6.4% Piute
2% 0.5% 60,000 0% 0.1% 40,000 -2%
$ Millions
5.7% Salt Lake
Tra
80,000 4%
6.8% Summit
3.1% Juab
5.7% Washington
2019 Average
Year-Over Percent Change, November 2020 100,000 3.2% Cache 2.7% Rich 5.3% Weber 4.4% Davis 3.4% Morgan 5.1% Dagget
3.3% Millard
Continued Claims
120,000 Job Change
4.0% Box Elder
4.7% Iron
-7.4% -7.4% -6.1% -6.1% USA USA -6.0% -6.0% -6.8% -6.8%-3.3% -3.3% -6.1% -6.1% -8.6% VT -4.4% -3.6% -8.6% VT -4.4% -3.6% -5.2% -5.2% NH -8.0% NH -8.0% -4.9% -4.9% -3.7% -3.7% MA -9.1% MA -9.1% -2.8% -2.9% -2.8% CT -2.9% -5.6% CT -5.6% -2.4% -2.3% RIRI -7.3% -2.3%-1.9% -7.3% -1.9% -2.4% NJ -7.6% NJ -7.6% -4.9% -4.9% MD -4.4% MD -4.4% DC -6.3% DC -6.3% DE -4.7% -8.0% DE -8.0% -4.7%
-15.2% -15.2%
140,000
4.2% Beaver
-9.9% -9.9%
-9.3% -9.3% -5.1% -5.1%
-15.2% -15.2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.4% Tooele
-6.9% -6.9%
-4.0% -4.0%
-6.7% -6.7%
-7.0% -7.0%
-6.4% -6.4%
-2.9% -2.9%
-4.9% -4.9%
10.1% 10.1%
Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate
-7.0% -7.0%
0.7% 0.7%
8.4% 8.4%
6.9% 6.9%
3.6% 3.6%
3.1% 3.1%
4.3% 4.3%
7.8% 7.8%
4.4% 4.4%
3.5% 3.5%
5.1% 5.1%
5.0% 5.0%
11.3%
6.0%
Mar-20
Apr-20 May-20
4.9% Total 4.8%
Jun-20
Residential 4.5%
4.4%
Jul-20 Aug-20
Nonresidential
Sep-20 Oct-20
Other 5.0%
5.0% 3.5% 8.4% 6.9% 5.1% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 6.6% 3.6% 3.1% 10.1% 5.7% USA 6.7% 4.3% 6.9% 5.0% 6.2% 6.4% 8.2% R O A D M A P5.6% T O 4.4% R E C O V 5.6% E R Y C4.9% O A L VT I T 3.1% ION NH 3.8% 6.2% 5.3% MA 6.7% 7.8% 5.9% 6.2% 4.4% CT 8.2% 7.5% 6.4% 4.4% 5.7% RI 7.3%
-
-7.
Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20
2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 2019 - October 2020 3,000,000 2,500,000 January 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 2,483,505 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
1,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
1,000 1,000 1,000
600 800 800 600 600
0 200 200 0 0
00
599 599 599
599 599
400 600 600 400 400
Source: Downtown Alliance
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R 1,089,536 1,089,536 1,089,536
500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 500,000
176,5241,089,536 1,089,536 176,524 176,524 176,524 176,524
0 500,000 500,000 0 0
899 899 899
899 899 545 545 545
545 545
200 400 400 200 200
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Downtown SLC Snapshot – Week of October 30, 2020
Workforce – 25% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.
Restaurants/Bars – 141 restaurants and bars are offering take-out and/or dine-in service – a slight increase since September 18 and up 88% since May 12 (75 open).
Visitor Economy – Convention district hotel occupancy is at approximately 43% of 2019 levels.
Retail – 90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.
$4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 $4,500 $4,000 January 2019 - September 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $4,000 $2,453 $3,500 $2,453 $3,000 $3,000 $2,453 $3,500 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,453 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $0 $0 $500 $500 $0 $0 $0
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - November 2020 Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - November 29, 2020
120,000 120,000 2019 2020 2019 2020 120,000 100,000 2019 2020 100,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 2019 2019 2020 2020 80,000 80,000 100,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 80,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 20,000 20,000 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 00 Jan. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jun. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20
Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20
Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20
Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19
Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19
Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19
00
3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/6/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/13/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/20/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 9/27/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/4/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/11/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/18/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 10/25/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/1/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/15/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20 11/29/20
800 1,000 1,000 800 800
Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Nov-20
3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,483,505 2,006,725 Airport SLC International Passengers $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832 $3,832
$3,458 $3,458 $3,458 $3,458 $3,458
7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
0% 0%
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. U.S.Cumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center Utah UtahCumulative CumulativeCase CaseFatality FatalityRate Rate
Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees January 2019 - December 2020
Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Source: Visit Salt Lake
Jul. Jul. Aug. Nov. Dec. Dec. Sep. Oct. Oct. Nov. Aug. Sep.
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors
“As 2020 comes to a close, Utah continues to lead the way in economic recovery. I am confident that prosperous times lie ahead.” Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“While Utah continues to improve, some face greater hardship than others. As Utahns we should continue to support one another as we recover to better.” Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Roadmap to Recovery Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute