Roadmap to Recovery Economic Dashboard - June 2021

Page 1

DASHBOARD

June 2021

The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

Utah’s unemployment rate

2

Utah sees two-year job growth.

remains lowest in the nation.

Utah’s April 2.8% unemployment rate ties for lowest in the nation with several other states. This unemployment rate mirrors pre-pandemic levels and this month marks the eight consecutive month of decline.

Job growth for April 2021 is compared to April 2019 due to the large declines seen in April 2020. Utah is one of only two states to see job growth by this comparison at 2.5%.

Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – May 2021 140,000

Continued Claims

120,000

March and April 2021 show a significant jump in SLC airport passengers. While not yet matching pre-pandemic travel, April 2021 surpassed 1.5 million passengers compared to less than 200,000 in April 2020.

Utah Job Change by Industry April 2019 - April 2021 2019 Average

Total

2.5%

Construction

11.2%

Manufacturing

100,000

5.1%

Information

80,000

0.3%

Financial Activities

60,000

9.4%

Leisure & Hospitality

40,000

Other Services

20,000

Government

-5.0% 1.2% -3.1%

Education/Health Services

Mar

Apr

3.8% 10.4%

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

8.6%

5.3%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.1%

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Natural Resources

4.3%

Professional/Business Services

3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% NA

0

3

Utahns increase air travel.

Unemployment Rate 12% 10%Utah Department of Workforce Services Source: 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% S A 0% LT L A K E C H A M B E R 0.1% -2% -4% -6% -8%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities 11.0% 10.9%

1.0% -15.1% 7.1% 3.4%

Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


Unemployment Rate April 2021

Job Change Two-Year Percent Change, April 2021 -3.3% -3.3%

5.5% 6.0% 6.0%

3.7%

4.2% 4.2%

3.1% 3.1%

8.0% 8.0%

3.9% 3.9%

6.4% 6.4%

8.3% 8.3%

3.5% 3.5% 4.3% 4.3%

8.2% 8.2%

7.4% 7.4% 4.7% 4.7% 5.8% 5.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 4.3% 6.2% 6.2% 3.6% 3.6% 4.3%

6.7% 6.7%

VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE

7.3% 7.3% 4.8% 4.8%

-6.5% -6.5%

-2.2% -2.2%

USA USA 6.1% 6.1%

7.1% 3.9% 7.1%3.9%

6.7% 6.7%

-5.5% -5.5%

8.2% 8.2%

4.9% 4.9%

3.8% 3.8%

2.8% 2.8%

2.8% 2.8%

6.7% 6.7%

4.1% 4.1%

2.8% 2.8%

5.4% 5.4%

-0.5% -0.5%

4.8% 4.8%

2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 6.5% 6.5% 8.1% 8.1% 6.3% 6.3% 7.5% 7.5% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5% 7.5% 6.4% 6.4%

-6.4% -6.4%

2.8% 2.8%

8.5% 8.5%

Utah Unemployment Rate April 2021

-2.9% -2.9%

-7.4% -7.4%

-5.2% -5.2%

-6.5% -6.5% -5.1% -5.1% -4.4% -4.4% -4.0% -4.3% -4.0% -4.3% -3.8% -8.1% -3.8% -8.1% -4.2% -3.1% -4.2% -3.1% -1.7% -1.7% -1.7% -1.7% -4.7% -4.7% -0.9% -3.3% -0.9% -3.3% -2.8% -2.8% -3.3% -3.3% -7.0% -7.0% -1.8% -1.8% -8.0% -8.0%

-3.4% -3.4%

3.9% 3.9%

-4.1% -4.1%

Job JobGrowth Growth

USA USA -4.1% -4.1% VT -3.9% VT -3.9% NH -7.0% NH -7.0% MA -4.1% MA -4.1% -6.9% CT CT -6.9% RIRI -7.1% -7.1% NJ -7.1% NJ -7.1% MD -4.9% MD -4.9% DC -4.7% DC -4.7% -7.4% DE DE -7.4%

2.6% Summit 2.5% Wasatch

4.9% Duchesne

4.0% Emery

3.6% Grand

3.2% Sevier

5.6% Garfield 2.7% Kane

6.1% San Juan

Finan

Leisu

-14.6% -14.6%

3.9% 3.9%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

Othe

Gove

140,000

Natu

Educ

2019 Average

Profe

Trade

100,000 12% 11.0% 10% 80,000 10.9% 8% 6% 60,000 4% 2% 0.5% 40,000 0% -2% 0.1% 20,000 -4% -6% 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May -8% Mar Apr -10% 3.8% 10.4% 8.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% -12% -14% Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US Utah

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - March 2021

$500

$0 5.5%

Unemployment Rate 1.9%

Infor

$1,000

4.4% Wayne

4.2% Piute

Manu

Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.9% Carbon

2.8% Sanpete

2.3% Millard

5.7% Uintah

Total

Cons

Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

$ Millions

2.6% Salt Lake

2.0% Juab

2.7% Washington

-5.5% -5.5%

3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% NA

1.9% Cache 2.3% Rich 2.8% Weber 2.3% Davis 2.0% Morgan 2.8% Dagget

2.3% Utah

2.7% Iron

-9.3% -9.3%

-0.7% -0.7%

Job Change Continued Claims 120,000 Year-Over Percent Change, April 2021

2.2% Box Elder

2.8% Beaver

-3.1% -3.1%

-7.1% -7.1%

-5.4% -5.4%

-14.6% -14.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.8% Tooele

2.5% 2.5%

-1.4% -1.4%

8.5% 8.5%

Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate

-5.2% -5.2%

-7.5% -7.5%

6.1%

Mar Apr May Jun 2020 Residential

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2021 Non-residential

-

Other

3.7% 4.8% 4.2% 4.1% 6.0% Ivory-Boyer Construction Database Source: 3.1% 3.9% 2.8% 8.2% 4.9% 5.4% 3.8% 7.4% 2.8% 8.0% 4.7% USA 6.1% 3.9% 2.8% R O A6.4% D M A P T O R E7.1% C O V E R5.8% Y 4.7% C O A LVTI T2.9% IO 3.5% 8.3% 4.1% 4.7% NH 2.8% 5.0% 5.0% MA 6.5% 4.3% 4.4% 6.7% 5.0% CT 8.1% 8.2% 4.3%

-5.5

N

-6.4%


0

1,000,000 $0

$5,000 $5,000 0 $4,000 $4,000

50

2021

Utah Bankruptcy Cases 40,000 40 60 20 January 20,000 2019 - April 2021

Apr

Apr

Jan

Dec

Nov

Oct

Aug

January 2019 - April 2021 40,000

7% 120,000

400

3%

20,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Nov. Dec. 80,000 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 4% 2021 60,000 6%

40,000 2% 1% 20,000 0%

0

2020

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2021

Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 2.5 200 1.5

Cum

0 120,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 200 2017 2018 2019 2020 100,000 2019 120,000 0 80,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb2020 Mar Apr 100,000 2020 2021 2019 2021 120,000 60,000 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2020 80,000 100,000 40,000 2019 2021 Source: 60,000United States Bankruptcy Court 80,000 2020 20,000 40,000 2021 S60,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 20,000 40,000 100 20,0000 U.S. Utah Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

AprApr

FebFeb Mar Mar

Dec Dec JanJan

Nov Nov

OctOct

SepSep

Aug Aug

JulJul

JunJun

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000 80,000

20 0 40 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 800 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 600 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mar

Jan

Feb

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the $020 economyJan will improve Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 120,000 Source: Salt 2020Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, and 2021 Utah 2019 Average Retail Sales 100,000 Bureau0of Labor Statistics 2019

Mar

Q4

50

0.5

Apr

Confidence Index Confidence IndexIndex Confidence

40 60,000

2021

Airport Passengers 2020

2021

Feb

2020

2020

Jan

12/14 12/21 12/28 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/26 5/10 2021

0 120,000 Jan0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr 60 100,000 2020 2019

0.5 0

50 $3,00060 2020 2021 0 500 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0 Q3 Q4 $2,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 40 $1,000 2020 2021

Dec

0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20 Q3 Q4 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2017 2018 2019 2020 1,000,000 2020 2021 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

40

1.5

1.0 $4,076 0

Nov

1,509,854

1,500,000 0

0

100 20 $4,000

Oct

0.5

20 50

2021

Sep

60

2020

40 50 150 $5,000 0

Aug

1.0

2019 Average 80,000 50State of Utah Unified Response Source: Scorecard 60

1.5

1.5

1.0

Jul

80

40 100 2,000,000 2020

Apr

2.5 2.5

2021

060100 2.5 1.0 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 200 0.5 Apr 50 50

Jun

Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Index (Thousands)

Utah

2021

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Note: Number of vaccines includes date listed and the following 6 days. 2020 2021 2020 40 Source: Utah Department of Health 200

150

Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)

1.5

2020 2020 500,000

2021

20 150 CEO Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q4 2020

2.5

100

U.S.

2020

200

60200

60 50 150 4040

0 60

May

Utah Utah

0

12/1412/14 12/2112/21 12/2812/28 1/4 1/4 1/11 1/11 1/18 1/18 1/25 1/25 2/1 2/1 2/8 2/8 2/15 2/15 2/22 2/22 3/1 3/1 3/8 3/8 3/15 3/15 3/22 3/22 3/29 3/29 4/5 4/5 4/12 4/12 4/26 4/26 5/10 5/10

U.S.

80 Consumer ConfidenceU.S. 80 January 2020 - April 2021 60

2021

Bankruptcy Cases Filed

2021

Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)

100

2019 Average

Utah

2021

Apr

2020

1% 0%

U.S.

12/14 12/21 12/28 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/26 5/10

100 Center Resource

802020

2%20

0

Jul

2021

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Department Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepUniversity Oct Nov(JHU) Dec2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr Source: Utah of Health and John Hopkins Coronavirus 2020

2020

Jun

Apr

Mar

Jan

Feb

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Bankruptcy Cases Filed

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

0 0 2020

Apr

2019 Average

0% 20

200

Mar

Apr

3%

May May

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2020 2020 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases2021 Filed

May

2%040 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

400 1%

AprApr

3%

600 0

12/14 12/21 12/28 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/26 5/10

20060

Apr

200 800 4%

7% 2020 2021 Utah Vaccine Doses2019 by Week 7% Average Retail Sales U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 0 6% U.S.Oct Cumulative Case Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb MarRate Apr 100 6% December 14, 2020 - May 10, 2021 Utah Cumulative CaseFatality Fatality Rate 2.5 Rate 5% 2020 Utah Cumulative2021 Case Fatality U.S. Utah 5% 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 4% 200 4%80 1.5 3% 3% 150 7% 2% U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality1.0 Rate 2%60 6% 1% 100 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 1% 5% 0% 100 0.5 0%40 50 4% Mar Mar

Utah U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

$0

5% 4% 3% 2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% 4%

202

3% 2%

Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)

U.S.

6% 400 40080 5%

2021

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands)

100 600 7% 600

2021

Airport Passengers

200$0

Mar

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2020 Case Fatality Rate Cumulative 2019 Average 800 800 March, 2020 - April 2021

2020

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Feb

Retail Sales Bankruptcy Cases Filed

Vaccines Doses by WeekDoses by Week Vaccines Confidence Index Doses by Week Vaccines (Thousands) (Thousands) (Thousands)

2019 Average Source: Salt Lake City International Airport 2019 Average

$5,000 $1,000 $1,000 4% $4,076 200 $4,000 3% $0 $0 800 Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar 2% Jan $3,000 0 2020 2021 2021 1% Jan2020Feb Mar Apr May2019 Jun Average Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr RetailSales Sales 2019 Average Retail 600 2020 2021 $2,000 0% Note: As of October 2019,2019 marketplace with a Utah Cases nexus Filed were required to pay AveragefacilitatorsBankruptcy $1,000 400 tax, increasing taxable retail sales. sales Apr

Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May MayJun Jun JulJul Aug AugSep SepOct OctNov NovDec DecJanJanFebFebMarMarApr Jan 2021 2021

500,000 2020 2020

5% 400

Mar

2021 AirportPassengers Passengers Airport

2019Average Average 2019

Airport Passengers U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

Confidence Index

2020

0

6%

2021

2019 Average

$2,000 $2,000

eek

Apr

7%

6%

1,000,000

$0 0

$4,076 $4,076 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

600

$3,000 600 500,000 500,000 2,000,000 $2,000 400 1,509,854 0 1,500,0000 Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Jan $1,000 200 2020 2021

$1,000

Mar

$4,000 800 1,000,000 1,000,000

54

800

$2,000

2020

$3,000 $3,000 7%

$4,076

2021

Mar

1,509,854 1,509,854

Dec Jan Feb Mar

Dec

2,000,000 2,000,000 $5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000

Utah Taxable Retail Jan Feb Mar Apr Sales May Jun(millions) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2020 500,000 2019 - March 2019 January 2021 Average Retail Sales

Nov

Airport Passengers

Airport Passengers

Oct

2021

$3,000

2021

2019 Average

Sep

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2020

Sep

SLC International Passengers Jan Feb MarAirport Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2020 January 2019 - April 2021 2019 Average

$4,000 $0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan1,509,854 Feb Mar Apr

1% 0%

2

20

Vaccines Doses by WeekVaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)

500,000

2,000,000 $2,000 0 1,500,000 $1,000

1,000,000

1

1

2

1

1


Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors

“Utah continues with the best unemployment rate in the nation at 2.8%. This comes just one year after the April 2020 rate of 10.4% showing just how far we’ve come! We are well on our way to a full economic recovery.”

Roadmap to Recovery Investor

Protect the Hive Investor

Scott Parson, Co-Chair

Innovate Investors

“Looking back on the past year, Utah has made great strides. I am proud of our state’s commitment to keep moving forward toward a full recovery for all.” Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair

Convener Investor

Collaborator Investor

Rio Tinto Kennecott

Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute


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