DASHBOARD
May 2021
The Roadmap to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
2
Utah’s unemployment rate drops below 3.0%.
Utah sees year-over job growth.
For the first time since the pandemic began, Utah’s unemployment rate dropped below 3.0%. Utah’s March unemployment rate of 2.9% is the lowest in the nation, tied with several other states. This marks the seventh consecutive month of decline.
Utah sees slight job growth of 0.9%. Moving forward, year-over job growth will be compared to early-pandemic months with large job losses. Job growth will likely be high as it is compared to these months with large losses
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – March 2021 140,000
Continued Claims
120,000
2019 Average
3.0% -1.3%
Information
4.3%
Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality
40,000
-6.1%
Other Services
20,000
0.7%
Government Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
5.0%
4.1%
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 4.3%
3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9%
Mar
3.8% 10.4%
Unemployment Rate
4%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
2% 0.5% 0% 0.1% -2%
S A -4% LT L A K E C H A M B E R -8%
5.0%
Manufacturing
60,000
-10%
0.9%
Total Construction
80,000
-6%
Utah’s March consumer confidence of 96.4 is the highest since the measure’s inception in October 2020. Utah’s consumer confidence exceeds the nation’s (84.9) by more than ten points.
Utah Job Change by Industry March 2020 - March 2021
100,000
0
3
Consumer confidence continues to rise.
0.9%
-4.4%
-3.6%
Education/Health Services Natural Resources
-1.1% -9.8%
Professional/Business Services
4.5%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
4.2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate March 2021
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, March 2021
5.4%
3.2% 3.2%
8.1% 8.1%
4.2% 4.2% 3.8% 3.8%
2.9% 2.9%
5.3% 5.3%
6.7% 6.7%
6.4% 6.4%
3.7% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2%
8.3% 8.3%
-6.0% -6.0% 5.1% 5.1%
8.5% 8.5%
3.7% 3.7%
2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
6.9% 6.9%
7.3% 7.3% 4.7% 4.7% 7.1% 7.1% 3.9% 5.9% 3.9% 5.9% 5.1% 4.2% 5.1% 4.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 3.8% 4.5% 3.8% 6.3% 4.5% 6.3%
6.6% 6.6%
-4.8% -4.8%
4.8% 4.8%
USA USA 6.0% 6.0% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE
7.3% 7.3% 4.7% 4.7%
-1.2% -1.2% -6.0% -6.0%
-2.8% -2.8%
2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 6.8% 6.8% 8.3% 8.3% 7.1% 7.1% 7.7% 7.7% 6.2% 6.2% 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 6.5%
-2.3% -2.3%
-4.2% -4.2%
-1.1% -1.1%
-6.3% -6.3% -4.4% -4.4% -3.5% -3.5% -3.8% -3.8% -4.4% -4.4% -3.0% -7.1% -3.0% -3.3% -7.1% -3.3% -4.4% -4.4% -1.7% -1.7% -2.6% -2.6% -4.0% -4.0% -2.9% -3.0% -3.0% -2.9% -7.0% -7.0%-3.3% -3.3% -3.3% -3.3% 1.3% 1.3%
-4.5% -4.5%
-9.2% -9.2%
-3.0% -3.0%
-6.8% -6.8% -5.0% -5.0%
2.9% 2.9%
9.0% 9.0%
Job JobGrowth Growth
-15.9% -15.9%
3.4% Washington
6.7% Uintah
5.2% Grand
Profe
Trade
-4.4%
Mar
Apr
3.8% 10.4%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
5.0%
4.1%
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 4.3%
Unemployment Rate
-14%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US
Utah
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - February 2021
$500
$0
Mar Apr May Jun 2020 Residential
Unemployment Rate
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
Natu
-4% 20,000 -6% -8%0
$ Millions
6.8% San Juan
3.1% Kane
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
2019 Average
$1,000
6.6% Garfield
2.1%
Finan
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.1% Wayne
4.9% Piute
Continued Claims
0.9%
-12%
4.1% Emery
3.6% Sevier
Infor
Educ
2% 60,000 0.5% 0% 0.1% 40,000 -2%
-10%
4.1% Carbon 3.1% Sanpete
Manu
80,000 4%
2.2% Cache 2.7% Rich 3.1% Weber 2.7% Davis 2.4% Morgan 3.1% Dagget
2.1% Juab
Cons
Gove
Year-Over Percent Change, March 2021 100,000
4.8% Summit 3.3% Salt Lake 3.6% 5.6% Wasatch 2.6% Duchesne Utah
Total
Othe
1.3% 1.3%
120,000 Job Change
2.5% Box Elder
3.0% Iron
VT -4.5% VT -4.5% NH -7.2% NH -7.2% MA -4.6% MA -4.6% CT -6.0% CT -6.0% RIRI -7.3% -7.3% NJ -7.7% NJ -7.7% MD -4.2% MD -4.2% DC -4.4% DC -4.4% DE -8.6% DE -8.6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rate March 2021
3.1% Beaver
USA USA -4.4% -4.4%
Leisu
140,000
2.6% Millard
-5.3% -5.3%
-6.5% -6.5%
-15.9% -15.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.2% Tooele
-7.5% -7.5%
-5.7% -5.7%
-4.2% -4.2%
-2.5% -2.5%
9.0% 9.0%
Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate
-4.5% -4.5%
0.9% 0.9%
-7.8% -7.8%
-9.5% -9.5%
3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9%
6.0% 6.0%
8.3% 8.3%
4.4% 4.4%
3.8% 3.8%
6.8%
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2021 Non-residential
Other
5.4% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 4.2% 6.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 8.5% 5.1% 5.3% 3.7% 7.3% 2.9% 8.1% USA 6.0% 7.1% 3.9% 4.7% 2.9% 5.9% VT 2.9% 6.4% ROA D M A3.7% P T O4.2%R E C O V E R Y5.1% C O A LNHI T3.0% IO 8.3% 5.0% 5.2% MA 6.8% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4% 6.7% CT 8.3% 5.1% 8.3% RI 7.1% 6.3% 3.8% 4.5%
-6.
N
-7.8%
2,000,000 $2,000 0 1,500,000
$5,000 $5,000
U.S. Utah Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
FebFeb MarMar
DecDec JanJan
Nov Nov
4/12
4/5
OctOct
3/29
3/22
3/15
SepSep
3/8
3/1
Aug Aug
2/15
2/8
2/1
1/25
1/18
1/11
1/4
2/22
JulJul
JunJun
May May
Feb Mar
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
4/5 4/5 4/12 4/12
3/29 3/29
3/22 3/22
3/15 3/15
3/1 3/1 3/8 3/8
2/22 2/22
2/15 2/15
2021
2/1 2/1 2/8 2/8
2020
1.0 $3,293
0
0.5
4/12
4/5
3/29
3/22
3/15
3/8
3/1
2/22
6050 $3,000 2020 2021 00 0 50 $2,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 40 $1,000 2020 2021from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe Note: The Index can range the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the 20 $0 economyJan will improve Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 120,000 Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, and Utah 2021 2020 2019 Average Retail Sales Bureau0of Labor Statistics 100,000
2019Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000 80,000
January 2019 - March 2021 40,000
7% 120,000
20,000 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 100,000 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate 0 5% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. 2020 Nov. Dec. 80,000 4% 2021 60,000 3% 6%
2% 40,000
2020
Feb Mar
Jan
Dec
0
Nov
1% 20,000 0%
$1,000 7%
$0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2021
Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 200 1.5
4% 3% 2% 7% 1% 6% 0% 5% 4%
20
3% 1% 0% Vaccines Doses by WeekVaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)
Jan
Feb Mar
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
1000
$4,000 20
0.5 0
Cum
20,0000
2021 1.5
2020
150 50 40 $5,000 0
Oct
0 120,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 100,000 2019 120,000 0 80,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2020 Feb Mar 100,000 2020 2021 2019 2021 120,000 60,000 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 80,000 2020 100,000 40,000 2019 Source: United States Bankruptcy Court 2021 60,000 80,000 2020 20,000 2021 40,000 S60,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 20,000 40,000 100 200
1.5
1.5
1.0
Sep
20 800 400 0 Jan.Q2Feb. Apr. Jul.Q2Aug. Oct.Q2Nov. Q1 Q3 Mar. Q4 Q1 Q2May Q3 Jun. Q4 Q1 Q3 Sep. Q4 Q1 Q3 Dec. Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 600 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 2019 2020 400
2021
150
Aug
20,000 50
2021
060100 1.0 100 200 0.5 Mar Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 50Jan 50
2/15
4/5
4/12
3/29
3/22
3/8
3/15
3/1
2/22
2/15
2/8
2/1
1/25
1/18
1/4
1/11
12/28
12/21
12/14
Confidence Index (Thousands)
Utah Bankruptcy Cases 40,000 40 60 January 20 2019 - March 2021
0 2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Note: Number of vaccines includes date listed and the following 6 days. 2020 402020 200 Source: Utah Department of Health 200 CEO Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q4 2020 20 150
2/8
60 1.5 100 60 60 50 150 U.S. Utah 40 1.0 80 40 40 100 2,000,000 20 60 20 0.5 50 20 1,500,000 0 40 00 1,066,382 0 Jan Q1 FebQ2 MarQ3Apr Sep Q2 OctQ3 Nov Mar Q4May Q1 Jun Q2 Jul Q3 Aug Q4 Q1 Q4Dec Q1 Jan Q2 Feb Q3 Q4 0 1,000,000 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2020 2020 2021 2021 500,000 0 0 120,000 Jan Feb Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Jan Mar Feb Apr Mar May Apr Jun May Jul Jun Aug Jul Sep Aug Oct Sep Nov Oct Nov Jan Feb 60 2020 2021 2020 2021 100,000 2019 2019 Average Airport Passengers Source: Scorecard 50State of Utah Unified Response 60 80,000 2020 40 2021 50 60,000
2021
2021
2/1
Vaccines Doses by Week
Utah Utah
Utah
Jul
U.S.
Consumer ConfidenceU.S. 80 80 January 200 2020 - March 2021
2021
2020
0 60
1/18 1/18
100
Bankruptcy Cases Filed
0%
1/18
2019 Average
1%
Jun
100 2020 Resource Center
0
1/11 1/11
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Utah of Health University 2020 Jan Department Feb Mar Apr May and JunJohn JulHopkins Aug Sep Oct (JHU) Nov Coronavirus Dec2021 Jan Feb Mar
2%202020
U.S.
1/11
2021
80
2020
12/28
Jan
Feb Mar
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
0 2020 0
3%
$2,000
2%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
7% 2020 2021 Utah Vaccine Doses2019 by Week 7% Average Retail Sales U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 0 6% U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 100 6% December 14, 2020 - April 12, 2021 Utah Cumulative Case FatalityRate Rate 2021 5% 2020 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 5% U.S. Utah Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2019 Average 4% 200 80 4% 1.5 3% 3% 150 7% 2% 60 U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality1.0 Rate 2% 6% 1% 100 Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate 1% 5% 0% 100 0.5 40 50 0% 4%
May
2%0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 Jan Feb Mar 40 2020 2020 2021 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0% 200 20 400 1%
2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1/4
3%60
600 0
$0
AprApr
200
2020 Source: Utah State Tax Commission
12/14
200 800 4%
$4,000 200 3%$0 $0 800 Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan $3,000 2% 0 2020 2021 Jan2020 Feb Mar Apr May JunAverage Jul Aug SepRetail Oct Sales Nov Dec Jan Feb 2021 Mar 2019 1% 2019 Average Retail Sales 600 2020 $2,000 2021 0% As of October 2019,2019 Note: marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed $1,000 sales 400 tax, increasing taxable retail sales.
Apr
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Utah
4%
12/1412/14 12/2112/21
U.S.
2021
$3,293
$1,000 $1,000
12/14
600 7% 100 600 6% 400 40080 5%
Airport Passengers
400 5% $5,000
Apr
2020 Case Fatality Rate Cumulative 2019 Average 800 800 March, 2020 - March 2021
$2,000 6% $2,000
200
$3,000
5%
Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) MarMar
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 500,000 2020 2021 2020 2021 2019Airport Average Retail Sales Source: Salt Lake City International 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
$4,000 $0
6%
Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)
3 Q4
2021
AirportPassengers Passengers Airport
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
b Mar
2019Average Average 2019
Airport Passengers
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
b Mar
0
2020
Confidence Index Confidence IndexIndex Confidence
Feb
$0
2021
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Mar
200
1,000,000
2021
Retail Sales
2019 Average
7% 600
(Thousands) (Thousands) (Thousands)
$3,000 500,000 600 500,000 2,000,000 $2,000 0 400 1,500,0000 Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Jan $1,000 1,066,382 2020 2021
800
Mar
$4,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 800
2020
$3,000 $3,000
Doses by WeekDoses by Week Vaccines Confidence Index Confidence Index Vaccines Vaccines Doses by Week
$3,293 1,066,382 1,066,382
y Week s)
$5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
$3,293 $3,293 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
0
$4,000 $4,000
May
2,000,000 2,000,000
12/2812/28 1/4 1/4
2021
$0 Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Utah Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 500,0002020 January 2019 - January2019 2021 Average
12/28
Airport Passengers
2021
1,066,382 Airport Passengers
2019 Average
12/21
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
12/21
0 SLC International Airport Passengers Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2020 - February 2021 January 2019 2019 Average
82
2020
$1,000
1,000,000
1/25 1/25
500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
1/25
1,000,000
2
20
1
1
2
1
1
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors
“Utah leads the way in economic recovery. Utah’s 2.9% unemployment rate is the best in the nation. I am confident that Utah will continue to prosper.”
Roadmap to Recovery Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“Consumer confidence continues to climb as vaccine doses rise. With continued resilience and collaboration, Utah is poised to recover to better.”
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute