DASHBOARD
9/21/2020
The Road to Recovery Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks 10 timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
The Utah economy continues to improve, but has a long way to go.
2
Utah’s Unemployment rate of 4.1% is the second lowest in the country.
Continued weekly unemployment claims peaked at 126,192 on May 2, 2020 and have now declined for 19 consecutive weeks. Continued claims for the week of September 12, 2020 tallied 35,649, showing the Utah economy still has a long way to go. Average weekly claims in 2019 were 8,856.
This positive news means many furloughed and laid off Utahns are returning to work. Pay close attention, however, as it’s likely during COVID-19 that many Utahns have dropped out of the labor market and are not included in this rate. Economists also warn about estimation difficulties during a pandemic and an economic shock.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 21, 2020 – September 12, 2020 140,000
Continued Claims
120,000
3
Construction employment surges as Leisure and Hospitality suffer. Job change by industry varies dramatically. Year-over job growth for August 2020 shows the Leisure/ Hospitality industry suffering through a 16.8% contraction and Natural Resources (energy and mining) declining by 11.5%. Utah’s construction industry, which increased by 7.4%, continues to be Utah’s fastest growing major industry over the past 12 months.
Utah Job Change by Industry August 2019 – August 2020 2019 Average
Natural Resources
-11.5% 7.4%
Construction
100,000
-0.9%
Manufacturing
80,000
1.8%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
60,000
-3.9%
Information
40,000
Financial Activities
20,000
Professional/Business Services
0
-1.6%
Total
1.5% -2.6% -0.6%
Education/Health Services 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept.
3.6%
10.4%
8.6%
5.3%
4.5%
4.1%
NA
2%
0.4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 0%
-2%
0.0%
S A L T-4%L A K E C H A M B E R -6% -8% -10% $1,200
-16.8%
Other Services Government
Unemployment Rate
4%
Leisure/Hospitality Services
3.4% -1.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1.6%
-7.0%
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate August 2020
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, August 2020
8.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 4.2% 4.2%
5.0% 5.0%
4.1% 4.1%
11.4% 11.4%
6.7% 6.7%
5.9% 5.9%
6.2% 6.2%
4.8% 4.8%
6.6% 6.6%
6.9% 6.9% 5.7% 5.7%
11.3% 11.3%
6.9% 6.9%
7.4% 7.4%
4.0% 4.0%
13.2% 13.2%
-6.1% -6.1%
U.S. 8.4%
5.6% 5.6%
10.3% 10.3% 8.9% 8.9% 11.0% 6.4% 11.0%6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 7.0% 7.6% 7.0% 7.6% 6.5% 6.5% 8.5% 8.5% 7.4% 6.3% 7.4% 6.3%
6.8% 6.8%
7.4% 7.4%
7.9% 7.9% 7.6% 7.6%
VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ WV WV MD MD DC DC DE DE
5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
7.4% 7.4%
-9.3% -9.3%
4.8% 4.8% 6.5% 6.5% 11.3% 11.3% 8.1% 8.1% 12.8% 12.8% 10.9% 10.9% 8.9% 8.9% 6.9% 6.9% 8.5% 8.5% 8.9% 8.9%
-9.3% -9.3%
-1.6% -1.6%
-3.4% -3.4%
7.1% to 9.0% 13.0% 9.1% to 13.0%
13.0%+ 13.0%+
-5.4% -5.4% -8.2% -8.2%
-11.3 -11.3
Trade/T
JobGrowth Growth Job -2.0%to to0% 0% -2.0% -2.1%to to-5.0% -5.0% -2.1%
-5.1%toto-8.0% -8.0% -5.1% -8.1%toto-11.0% -11.0% -8.1%
Continued Claims
80,000 4% 60,000 2% 0.4% 0% 0.0% 40,000 -1.6% -2% 20,000 -4% -6% -7.0% 0 -8% 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 April May June July August Sept. -10% March
6.6% Summit
5.9% 7.6% 3.4% Wasatch Duchesne Utah
8.5% Uintah
-12% 3.6% -14%
10.4%
8.6%
5.3%
5.0% Carbon 3.6% Sanpete
9.8% Grand
$1,000
8.1% Wayne $ Millions
10.1% San Juan
8.5%
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
$998,016,752
$896,628,754 $707,711,597
$749,947,333
$600 $400 $200
Unemployment Rate Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah
$990,732,146
$800
5.6% Kane
2.9%
NA
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - July 2020 $1,200
10.3% Garfield
4.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.6% Emery
4.2% Sevier
4.5%
Unemployment Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US
3.0% Juab
6.3% Piute
Edu
Leisu
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, August 2020
4.8% Box Elder
3.1% Millard
2019 Average
100,000
2.9% Cache 3.3% Rich 4.7% Weber 3.9% Davis 3.2% Morgan 4.3% Dagget 4.9% Salt Lake
-11.1%toto-14.0% -14.0% -11.1% -14%orormore more -14%
Professi
120,000
Utah Unemployment Rate August 2020
4.9% Washington
-7.7% -12.2% -7.7% -12.2% -10.2% -10.2% -8.3% -5.8% -8.3% -3.7% -5.8% -3.7% -7.9% -7.1% -10.8% -7.9% -7.1% VTVT-10.8% -3.5% -3.5% -8.0% NH-8.0% -5.4% NH -4.5% -5.4% -4.8% -4.5% -4.8% -6.3% -6.3% MA -10.6% -6.9% MA -10.6% -6.9% -4.7% -4.7% -6.9% CTCT-6.9% -4.6% -3.6% -4.7% -4.6% -4.7% -3.6% -7.3% RIRI-7.3% -2.7% -2.7% -4.2% -9.1% NJNJ-9.1% -4.2%-4.2% -4.2% -6.9% WV-6.9% -4.9% WV -4.9% -6.8% -6.4% MD-6.4% -6.8% MD -6.7% DC-6.7% DC -5.1% -5.1% -8.8% DEDE-8.8%
-4.5% -4.5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 140,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.7% Iron
-8.9% -8.9%
-16.3% -16.3%
Unemployment Unemployment Rate 0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 7.0%
4.0% Beaver
-6.8% -7.3% -6.8% -7.3%
-6.9% -6.9%
12.5%
4.8% Tooele
U.S. -7.0%
-4.6% -4.6% -0.5% -0.5%
12.5% 12.5%
8.7% 8.7%
6.0% 6.0%
-7.3% -7.3%
10.3%
7.7%
0
Mar-20 5.6% Total
Apr-20 7.4% Residential
5.0%
May-20 Jun-20 6.9%Jul-20 Nonresidential Other
-7
6.2%
4.2% 4.8% 12.5% 6.6% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 8.7% 6.0% 10.3% 4.0% VT 4.8% 13.2% 8.9% 11.0%6.4% 4.1% NH 6.5% 6.7% R O A D M A P T O R E C O V E R Y C O A L I11.3% TIO 6.9% 6.1% 11.4% MA 7.0% 7.6% CT 8.1% 6.5% 8.5% 5.9% 5.7% 7.4% RI 12.8% 6.3% 11.3% NJ 10.9% 5.6% 5.6%
N
-9.3
2,483,505 2,006,725Airport Passengers SLC International 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,500,000 3,000,000 January 2,500,0002019 - July 2020 2,483,505 2,006,725 2,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 874,975 874,975 176,524 176,524 874,975
1,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,000,000 500,000
176,524
Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20
0 500,000 0
$4,500 $4,500 $4,000 Utah Taxable Retail Sales (millions) $4,000 $4,500 January 2019 - June 2020 $3,500 $3,500 $4,000 $2,453 $3,000 $2,453 $3,000 $3,500 $2,500 $2,453 $2,500 $3,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,500 $500 $500 $1,000 $0 $0 $500
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2019 - August 2020
Cumulative Case Fatality Rate March 15, 2020 - September 6, 2020
800 600 600
599 599
899
628 628 628
599
600 400 400
200 0 0 0
Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20Aug-20
400 200 200
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Downtown SLC Snapshot
Workforce
23% of downtown SLC office workers are working from their offices this week.
Restaurants/Bars
135 restaurants and bars offering take-out and/or dine-in service—a slight increase since August 7 and up 69% since May 12 (75 open).
$3,633
7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1%
3/15/20 3/15/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/5/204/5/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 4/26/20 5/3/20 5/3/205/3/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/10/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 6/7/206/7/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/14/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/21/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 6/28/20 7/5/20 7/5/207/5/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/12/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/19/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 7/26/20 8/2/20 8/2/208/2/20 8/9/20 8/9/208/9/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/16/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/23/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 8/30/20 9/6/20 9/6/209/6/20
1,000 800 800
899 899
$3,832
$3,633 $3,633
$0
0
1,000 1,000
$3,832 $3,832
Jan-19 Jan-19Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19Apr-19 May-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-19Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Jan-20Jan-20 Feb-20 Feb-20Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20Apr-20 May-20 May-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20Jun-20
3,000,000 3,000,000
0%
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Cumulative Case Case Fatality Fatality Rate Rate Utah Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Department of Health and John Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Week of September 18, 2020
Visitor Economy
Convention district hotel occupancy at approximately 30% of 2019 levels, a 3% bump up from July 22.
Retail
90% of downtown retail stores are open. Traffic has been growing each week, with a high percentage of shoppers purchasing products.
Source: Downtown Alliance
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
“Utah is leading the country in both health and economic recovery; we must keep working together to ensure we continue to do both!”
“Pandemics do end. I’m confident we will get through this and emerge even stronger.” Brandon Fugal , Co-Chair
“The COVID-19 recession places an uneven impact on people, industries and places. Let’s keep working together to rebuild and restore Utah’s full economic diversity and vibrancy for every Utahn.”
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Recovery Coalition Investors Roadmap to Recovery
Protect the Hive Investors
Innovator, Convener and Collaborator Levels
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute