DASHBOARD
September 2021
The Roadmap to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s path to a full and complete economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators since the start of the pandemic. THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
2
Utah ranks second for lowest
Consumer confidence falls
unemployment rate and highest job growth
Consumer confidence climbed steadily from October 2020 to April 2021. For the past few months, consumer confidence has fallen with July 2021 declining to the same level as October 2020.
Utah’s July unemployment rate of 2.6% and two-year job growth of 3.5% both rank second in the nation and are the best values Utah has seen since the pandemic began.
Utah Continued Weekly Unemployment Claims March 2020 – August 2021 2020
3
Utah air travel exceeds 2019 average In June 2021 there were 2.25 million SLC airport passengers, surpassing the 2019 average for the first time since the onset of the pandemic.
Utah Job Change by Industry July 2019 - July 2021 4.2%
Total
2021
11.8%
Construction
100,000
6.5%
Manufacturing
Continued Claims 2019 Average
-2.0%
Information
9.0%
Financial Activities
50,000
-2.3%
Leisure & Hospitality
-0.2%
Other Services
-1.5%
Government
Unemployment Rate 12% Source: 10% Utah Department of Workforce Services 8% 6% 4% 2% 0.5% S A0% LT L A K E C H A M B E R 0.1% -2% -4% -6%
7/31
7/10
2.6%
2.8% 6/19
5/8
5/29
2.7%
2.8% 4/17
3/6
3/27
2.9%
3.0% 2/13
1/2
3.3% 1/23
3.5% 12/5
4.3% 11/14
10/3
4.1% 10/24
5.0% 9/12
8/1
8/22
4.1%
4.5% 7/11
5.3% 6/20
5/9
5/30
8.6%
3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18
0
Natural Resources Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities
6.7% 5.3%
2.6%
Education/Health Services -15.6%
8.9% 6.5%
Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Unemployment Rate July 2021
Job Change Two-Year Percent Change, July 2021 -2.2% -2.2%
5.1% 3.6% 3.6%
3.9% 3.9%
2.9% 2.9%
5.2% 5.2%
4.1% 4.1%
2.3% 2.3% 6.1% 6.1%
3.5% 3.5%
7.6% 7.6%
6.2% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6%
-0.1% -0.1%
USA USA 5.4% 5.4% VT VT NH NH MA MA CT CT RI RI NJ NJ MD MD DC DC DE DE
5.1% 5.1%
3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 4.9% 4.9% 7.3% 7.3% 5.8% 5.8% 7.3% 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.7% 6.7% 5.6% 5.6%
-5.3% -5.3% -0.6% -0.6%
2.3% 2.3%
7.7 7.7 % %
-2.5% -2.5% -7.9% -7.9% -1.1% -2.8% -1.1% -2.8%
-1.0% -1.0%
-6.9% -6.9%
-2.3% -2.3%
-2.4% -2.4%
-11.5% Job 3.8% -11.5% JobGrowth Growth 3.8% Note: Beginning March 2021, a 2-year change is used due to the drastic changes in employment beginning March 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.6% Uintah
Profes
7/31
7/10
2.6%
2.8% 6/19
5/8
5/29
2.7%
2.8% 4/17
3/6
3/27
2.9%
3.0% 2/13
1/2
3.3% 1/23
3.5% 12/5
4.3% 11/14
10/3
4.1% 10/24
5/9
Trade
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.7% Carbon 2.7% Sanpete
5/30
3.8% 3/28 10.4% 4/18
2.4% Summit 2.6% Salt Lake 2.5% 4.8% Wasatch Duchesne 2.1% Utah
Ed
2021
Continued Claims 2019 Average 12% 10% 8% 6.7% 50,000 6% 5.3% 4% 2% 0.5% 0% -2% 0.1% 0 -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Unemployment Rate -14% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US Utah 8.6%
1.7% Cache 2.2% Rich 2.7% Weber 2.2% Davis 1.8% Morgan 4.2% Dagget
4.1% Emery
4.6% Grand
3.2% Sevier
2.5% Washington
VT -3.9% VT -3.9% NH -6.0% NH -6.0% -3.0% MA MA -3.0% CT -5.7% CT -5.7% RIRI -5.2% -5.2% NJ -5.6% NJ -5.6% MD -4.0% MD -4.0% DC -3.5% DC -3.5% DE -6.0% DE -6.0%
-4.5% -4.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Job Change Year-Over Percent Change, July 2021
1.8% Juab
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 - June 2021 $1,000
5.0% Wayne
4.0% Piute 6.9% Garfield
6.3% San Juan
$ Millions
2.6% Iron
USA USA -2.7% -2.7%
100,000
2.2% Box Elder
2.5% Beaver
-5.6% -5.6%
-4.7% -4.7% -3.3% -3.6% -3.0% -3.0%-3.3% -3.6% -4.6% -4.5% -4.6% -4.5% -1.9% -1.9% -1.5% -1.5% -1.1% -1.1%
2020
Utah Unemployment Rate July 2021
2.2% Millard
-5.4% -5.4%
-6.2% -6.2%
-11.5% -11.5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.7% Tooele
-2.8% -2.8%
-8.7% -8.7%
7.3% 7.3%
Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate
-2.4% -2.4%
-4.3% -4.3%
3.8% 3.8%
-3.8% -3.8%
3.5% 3.5%
5.0% 9/12
6.6% 6.6%
3.8% 3.8%
6.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.7% 6.1% 3.7% 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 4.1% 7.1% 7.1% 4.1%
-4.8% -4.8%
-0.6% -0.6%
-6.1% -6.1%
8/1
7.6% 7.6%
-5.5% -5.5%
7.6% 7.6%
-5.6% -5.6%
-6.0% -6.0%
8/22
2.6% 2.6%
4.8% 4.8%
-0.2% -0.2%
-4.1% -4.1%
4.1%
7.7% 7.7%
3.9% 3.9%
4.5% 7/11
3.0% 3.0%
4.9% 4.9%
5.3% 6/20
5.2% 5.2%
3.9% 3.9%
$500
2.7% Kane
$0
Unemployment Rate 1.7%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2020 2021 Residential
5.1%
6.9%
Non-residential
Other
3.6% 3.9% Database Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction 3.9% 5.2%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
3.0% 7.7%
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
2.6%R
7.6% 6.6%
5.2%
3.9%
2.9% 2.3%
-2
4.9%
4.1%
-4.1
7.6%
4.8% 5.4%
6.6%
O A D M A P T O R7.1% E C4.1% O V E R Y C O AUSA L I 5.4% TION 6.1%
3.8% 3.5%
4.2% 4.3%
4.4% 4.7%
5.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3%
VT NH MA CT
3.0% 2.9% 4.9% 7.3%
-5.3%
2,000,000 $2,000 0
500,000
1,500,000
$5,000 $5,000 0 $4,000 800 $4,000
0J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Source: 2020 Utah J Department F M A ofMHealth J and J John A SHopkins O NUniversity D 2021 J (JHU) F Coronavirus M A M J J 2021 100 2020 Resource Center
2.5
8/2/21
7/5/21
7/19/21
6/7/21
6/21/21
5/24/21
5/10/21
4/26/21
4/12/21
3/29/21
3/1/21
3/15/21
2/1/21
2/15/21
1/4/21
0 120,000 J0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2020 J F M A M J J A S O N 2021 D J F M A M J 100,000 60 2020 2021 2019 Source: State of Utah Unified Response Scorecard 2019 Average Airport Passengers 2020 80,000 50 60 2021 60,000 40
Confidence Index Confidence Index Index Confidence
Utah Bankruptcy Cases 50 40,000 January 60 40 20 2019 - July 2021
200 800 40
0
600 20 0 400
Q1 21
0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 21
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 21
120,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 21 100,000 2019
200
120,000 0 80,000 J F 2020 100,000 60,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 100,000
M A
M J
J
A
S
2019 Average
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
60,000 80,000 20,000
F
M A
M J
J
A
S
O N D
J
2021
F
8/2/21
M 1.0 J 0.5
M A
1.5
100 20 0 $4,000 50
$3,000 60 0
50 $2,000
0
8/2/21 8/2/21
500
0.5 0
J
1.0 $3,968
0
0.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q30 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 21
40
$1,000 Note: The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the
$0 20 will improve economy 120,000 J F M A
M J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M A
Source: Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, 2020 2021 and Utah
M
100,000 Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 Average Retail Sales 2019 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 80,000 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 21 Visit Salt Lake Facility Attendees 2021 60,000
2020 M J 2021 2021 2019 Bankruptcy Cases Filed 2020 2019 2021 2020
O N D
J
F
M A
J
7% 120,000 20,000 6%
100,000 0
5%
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2020 2021 60,000 3% 80,000
40,000 2% 1% 20,000 0%
M0 A 2020
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. 2021 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Note: Data only includes conferences/conventions with 1500 attendees or more. Source: Visit Salt Lake
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 2.5 200 1.5
Cum
Utah
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 2019 Rate
4%
2021 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
U.S.
1.5
40 150
S60,000 A L T0 L A K E C H A M B E R 40,000 40,000 20,000 100 20,0000
2.5 1.5
January 2019 - July 2021 40,000
20,000 50
50 50100 2020
ek
J
1/18/21
12/21/20
20 1,500,000 400 00 J Q1 F Q2 M Q3 A Q4 M Q1 J JQ2 AQ3 SQ4 OQ1NQ2D Q3J Q4F Q1M Q2 A Q3 M0 Q4 J Q1 J 2020 2021 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 21 0 20 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2020 2021 500,000
AJ
1.0 2.5
060
$5,000
A
8/2/21
0.5
2.5
200
150 100
1.0 2,253,417
50
AO SN OD N J D F J MF AM M A M J JJ
Note:2020 Number following 2020 of vaccines includes date listed and the2021 2021 6 days. 40 Utah Department of Health Source:
200J
0
4% 3% 2% 7% 1%
6% 0% 5% M 2 4% 3% 2% 1%
A
J
JS
7/5/21 7/5/21 7/19/217/19/21
1.5
Utah
M J A F MM J A JM AJ
J 0.5J
J
7/5/21
Vaccines Doses by Week Confidence Index (Thousands)
U.S.
0 0%60
M
M
200 CEO Confidence Index, Q1 2017 – Q1 2021 20 150
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
60200 100 60 60 50 40150 80 40 40 100 20 2,000,000 60 20
1%
A
A
7/19/21
Utah
80 Consumer Confidence U.S. Utah January 2020 - July 2021 80
M
Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines Cumulative Vaccines (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)
U.S.
100
Bankruptcy Cases Filed
M A
M
6/21/216/21/21
2019 Average
6% 5%
M
6/21/21
J
6/7/21 6/7/21
M
2021
6/7/21
A
J A S O N D J F 2021 JU.S.A SUtah O N D J F
5/24/215/24/21
M
J
J
5/24/21
2021
F
20 80 20200 2%
M
M
5/10/215/10/21
J
3%
A
5/10/21
D
M
7/5/21
A
Bankruptcy Cases Filed
N
2021
F
7/19/21
J
2021
J
6/7/21
J
D
6/21/21
J
N
5/24/21
O Bankruptcy N D J Cases F MFiled A M
5% 0% 1% 40 M A 100 50 4% 0% 2020
4/26/214/26/21
O
J
O
4/26/21
S
J
4/12/214/12/21
A
M A
3/29/213/29/21
2019 Average
J
M
2021
F
4/12/21
J
J
3/29/21
M
D
3/1/21 3/1/21
M2019 J Average J A S
N
3/15/213/15/21
2020
0
A
M A
O
3/1/21
M
S
7% $0
$3,968 F M $3,968 A M J
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality1.0 Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
3/15/21
0%
200 20
A
S
$2,000
$1,000
Airport Passengers
100
2/1/21 2/1/21
2020
J
Vaccines Doses by Week Vaccines DosesDoses by Week Confidence Index Vaccines by Week (Thousands)(Thousands) (Thousands)
400 1%
F
M J
Confidence Index
J
M A
M
2021
5/10/21
60
2%040 J2020 F
J
3% 7% 2% 6% 2% 1%
20060 3% 600 0
A
150
2/15/212/15/21
400
200 800 4%
M
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Retail Sales 100 J F 14, December Case Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate M A2020 M -J August J A 2, S 2021 O NU.S. DCumulative J F M A Fatality M JRate J 6% 5% 2020 2021 2.5 Rate U.S. Utah Utah Cumulative Case Fatality 5% 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 4% 200 80 4% 3% 1.5
2/1/21
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Utah
F
Retail Sales
$0 J F M A M J J A 7% 2020 Utah Vaccine Doses by Week 2019 Average 7% 6% 0
2/1/21
U.S.
J
2021
Cumulative Vaccines (Millions)
600
6% 400 5% 80
D
A S O N D J
200
2/15/21
7%
N
Retail Sales
2019 Average
2/15/21
600 100
J
O
0% As of October 2019,2019 Note: marketplace with a Utah Cases nexus were AveragefacilitatorsBankruptcy Filed required to pay M increasing A M taxable J J retail A sales. S O N D J F M A M J J A sales $1,000 2020 2021 400 tax, Source: Utah State Tax Commission
1/4/21
2021
Airport Passengers
600 $2,000
1/18/211/18/21
2020Case Fatality Rate Cumulative 2019 Average 800 March, 2020 - August 2021 800
S
6% $2,000 $2,000 400 5% $5,000 $1,000 $3,968 4% $1,000 200 $4,000 3% $0 $0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 800 2% $3,000 0 J2020F M A M J J A S O N D J2021F M A M F M A M J 2019 J Average A S O N D J Sales F 2021 M A M J J Retail 1% J 2020 2020 2021
1/18/21
$0
0 J F F MM A A M MJ J J JA AS SO N O DN JD F J MF A M M A J M J 500,000J2020 2020 2021 2021 2019Airport Average Retail Sales Source: Salt Lake City International 2019 Average Bankruptcy Cases Filed 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
A
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
1/4/21 1/4/21
1,000,000
J
Airport2021 Passengers Airport Passengers
J
2019 Average
1/18/21
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J2020 F M A M J J A S O N D J2021 F M A M J
J
F M A M J
2020
12/21/20
2,253,417
2019 Average 2019 Average
M
$3,000 7% $3,000 600
$3,968
2020
J
12/21/20 12/21/20
$5,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 $4,000 1,000,000 800 1,000,000 $3,000 500,000 600 500,000 2,000,000 $2,000 400 0 1,500,0000 $1,000 200
A
4/26/21
2,000,000 2,000,000
M
2020 January 500,000 2019 - May 2021 2019 Average
4/12/21
2,253,417 2,253,417
F
$3,000
Airport Passengers
1,000,000 $0 Taxable Retail Sales (millions) Utah J
$0 $4,000
F M A M J
2021
2019 Average
3/29/21
Airport Passengers
A S O N D J
3/1/21
J
J
3/15/21
M A M
1/4/21
F
12/21/20
J
2021
Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands)
N D
F M A M J
2020
$1,000
0 SLC International Airport Passengers J F M A M J J A S O 2020 January 2019 - June 2021 2019 Average
7
J
0% Vaccines Doses by Week Vaccines Doses by Week (Thousands) (Thousands)
1,000,000
M
22
1
1
2
1
1
Special thanks to the Roadmap to Prosperity Coalition Investors
“Utah’s economy continues to prosper. July data show Utah leading, ranking second in the nation for both unemployment rate and job growth.”
Roadmap to Prosperity Investor
Protect the Hive Investor
Scott Parson, Co-Chair
“With rising case counts and declining consumer confidence, Utahns must remain vigilant. With collaboration and perseverance Utah will continue to thrive.”
Innovate Investors
Convener Investor
Mikelle Moore, Co-Chair
Collaborator Investor
Rio Tinto Kennecott
Prepared by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute