QUAR TER LY SURVEY OF U TAH RES IDEN T S 2019 - QU ART ER 2
J U LY 2 0 1 9
The Salt Lake Chamber recognizes the link between public leadership and business well-being. On behalf of the Salt Lake Chamber, Dan Jones & Associates surveys likely voters and asks questions about the direction of our country and state, presidential and gubernatorial leadership, voter preferences for major races, and other timely issues important to the future of the state. The survey, which will be known as Utah Outlook, is conducted quarterly and includes likely voters. A companion survey, the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook, queries top-level business executives from a representative mix of industries about current and future economic conditions. Together, the Utah Outlook and CEOutlook help Utah business and community leaders make informed business decisions.
METHODOLOGY Dan Jones & Associates conducted this initial survey June 11-July 1, 2019. It includes a statistically valid, statewide sample of 801 likely voters. In addition, surveyors oversampled in Salt Lake City to secure statistically valid results for the Salt Lake City mayoral race. Sampling includes a blended sample of telephone respondents (82 percent) and online respondents (18 percent). Quotas were managed by age and county.
Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community
RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think the United States is going in the right or wrong direction?
Total (number responding)
801
Right direction
42%
Wrong direction
51%
Don’t know
6%
Right direction
42%
Wrong direction 2019-Q2
51%
N=801
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Do you think Utah as a state is going in the right or wrong direction?
Total (number responding)
801
Right direction
64%
Wrong direction
27%
Don’t know
9%
Right direction Wrong direction 2019-Q2
64% 27%
N=801
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 2
1
FAVORABILITY Now, I’ll read you a list of names. For each one, first tell me if you have heard of the person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Not very favorable
Not at all favorable
Heard of, no opinion
Never heard of
President Donald Trump
28%
20%
10%
39%
2%
0%
Senator Mike Lee
27%
25%
11%
23%
9%
5%
Senator Mitt Romney
27%
34%
18%
17%
4%
0%
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
29%
39%
13%
7%
7%
4%
Governor Gary Herbert
33%
33%
15%
10%
6%
2%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
28%
33%
6%
5%
13%
14%
Congressman Rob Bishop
15%
29%
13%
16%
14%
13%
Congressman Chris Stewart
16%
27%
7%
15%
18%
17%
Congressman John Curtis
13%
26%
10%
8%
19%
24%
Congressman Ben McAdams
15%
33%
17%
12%
12%
12%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Very Favorable or Somewhat Favorable Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
68%
Governor Gary Herbert
66%
Senator Mitt Romney
61%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
61%
Senator Mike Lee
52%
Congressman Ben McAdams
48%
President Donald Trump
48%
Congressman Rob Bishop
44%
Congressman Chris Stewart Congressman John Curtis
2
43% 39%
Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community
RE-ELECT Next, I’ll read you a list of names. For each one, tell me if they have performed well enough that they should be re-elected to another term, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve. Should be re-elected "to another term
Time to give someone new a chance to serve
Don’t know
President Donald Trump
45%
52%
4%
Senator Mike Lee
45%
44%
11%
Congressman Chris Stewart
37%
36%
27%
Congressman Ben McAdams
43%
32%
25%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
President Trump Re-Elect Should be re-elected to another term
45%
Time to give someone new a chance to serve 2019-Q2
52%
N=801
President Trump Re-Elect by Age 57%
55%
53%
18 to 24
25 to 34
47%
44%
44%
40%
36%
52%
35 to 44
45 to 54
n Should be re-elected to another term
51%
49%
55 to 64
46%
65 or older
n Time to give someone new a chance to serve
Source: Dan Jones & Associates 41%
33% 26% President Trump Re-Elect by Political Affiliation 32%
Republican
Democrat
43%Jones & Associates Source: Dan 36%
2019 - Quarter 2
40% 41%
28% 12%
1%
25%
Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton
68%
57%
42%
Other
Time to give someone new a chance to serve n47%
44%
37%
40% 42% 28%
13%
Don’t know
1%
Unaffiliated voter
n Should be re-elected to another term 45%
2%
The Democratic nominee
4%
13% 17%
11%
8%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
28%
5%
Former Speaker Greg Hughes
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
70%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
5% 6%96%
45% 43%
3
2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE If the 2020 election for governor of Utah were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote? Total (number responding)
758*
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
32%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 57% 55% Former Speaker Greg Hughes
33% 53%
52%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas 44%Wright 40% 36% Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton
47%
44%
51%
5% 49% 5% 46% 2%
The Democratic nominee
11%
Don’t know
13%
*Note: Sample is less than 801 because Chaffetz was removed after announcing he will not run for governor. Source: Dan Jones & Associates
18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 or older
Gubernatorial Likely Vote 41% 33%
2%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
Former Speaker Greg Hughes
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
5%
n All Voters (758)
1%
1% Don’t know
5% 6%
13% 17%
11%
8%
The Democratic nominee
26%
Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton
32%
n Republicans (343)
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
45%
43%
47%
40% 41%
36%
44% 37%
45% 43%
40%
28% 12%
7% 18 to 24
25 to 34
13%
9%
35 to 44
45 to 54
58% 34% 24%
4
55 to 64
7% 65 or older
53%
45%
Republican
9%
Democrat
32%
Unaffiliated voter Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community
2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT. Of those candidates, for whom are you least likely to vote?
Total (number responding)
759*
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
11%
96%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 70%Speaker Greg Hughes Former
6% 68%
15% 57%10%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
10% 42%
Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton 28% The Democratic nominee Don’t know
28%
25%
19%
4%
*Note: Sample is less than 801 because Chaffetz was removed after announcing he will not run for governor. Republican Democrat Unaffiliated voter Other Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Gubernatorial Likely Vote
42% 28%
Don’t know
The Democratic nominee
Former Speaker Greg Hughes
n All Voters (758)
6%
19% 17%
10% 11%
Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton
8%
6% 4%
10%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
15%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
11% 13%
n Republicans (343)
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 2
5
57%
55%
18 to 24
52% 44%
44%
40%
36%
53%
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
51%
47%
55 to 64
49%
46%
65 or older
2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT.
45%
43%
47%
40% 41%
36%
44% 37%
Don’t know Don’t know
The Democratic The Democratic nominee nominee
Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head by Age
Councilwoman Councilwoman Aimee WinderAimee WinderNewton Newton
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Former Republican Former Republican Party Chair Party Chair Thomas Wright Thomas Wright
Don’t know
Former Speaker Former Speaker Greg HughesGreg Hughes
Former Governor Former Governor Jon Huntsman, JonJr. Huntsman, Jr.
Lt. GovernorLt. Governor Spencer CoxSpencer Cox
Now, assume41% the field of candidates for governor is narrowed to three. 18For to 24whom33% 25 to 35 vote to 44 for if the 45 to 54 55 to 64 the following? 65 or older 32% would34you likely candidates were 26% 13% 17% 11% Total 8% 41% 6% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 33% (number responding) 801 32% 26% Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. 43% 13% 17% 11% Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 37% 8% 5% 6% 5% 2% 1% 1% Former Speaker Greg Hughes 8% 12%
45% 43%
40%
28% 45%
43%
12%
36% 7%
47%
40% 41%13%
37% 9%
44%
40%9%
45% 43% 7%
28% 18 to 24
25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or older 13% 12% 9%Spencer Cox 9% 7% n Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. n Lt. Governor n Don’t know 7%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
18 to 24
45% 25 to 34
58% 35 to 44
45 to 54
34% Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head by Political Affiliation 24% 58%
Republican
53%
65 or older 32%
53%
45% 34% Republican
55 to 64
Democrat24%
32% Unaffiliated voter
Democrat
Unaffiliated voter
n Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. n Lt. Governor Spencer Cox Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head Amongst All Voters Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
43% 37%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
6
Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community
2019 SALT LAKE CITY MAYORAL RACE (SALT LAKE CITY VOTERS ONLY) If the 2019 Salt Lake City mayoral election were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote? Total (number responding)
149
Former Senator Jim Dabakis
30%
Senator Luz Escamilla
15%
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
12%
Businessman David Ibarra
8%
Attorney David Garbett
5%
Councilman Stan Penfold
5%
Don’t know
25%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
SLC Mayor Likely Vote
30% 25%
15%
12% 8%
Councilman Stan Penfold
Businessman David Ibarra
Attorney David Garbett
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
Senator Luz Escamilla
Former Senator Jim Dabakis
Don’t know
5%
5%
Increasing funding for education
3.85
Promoting economic development and job creation
3.75
Addressing homelessness in Utah
3.50
Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Reforming the liquor laws
2019 - Quarter 2
3.32 2.48
7
ISSUES In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the country?
In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the state of Utah?
1. Immigration 2. Health care 3. President Trump 4. Economy 5. Climate change
1. Education 2. Growth 3. Housing 4. Air quality 5. Taxes
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Now, I will read some issues currently facing the state of Utah. For each issue,please rate it using a 1-5 scale, with ONE meaning it is AT THE BOTTOM of your priority list and FIVE meaning it is AT THE TOP of your priority list. 30%
Total 1 (bottom)
2
3
4
5 (top)
25% Mean
Increasing funding for education
8%
9%
17%
21%
45%
3.85
Increasing funding for roads, 15% highways and freeways
7%
13%
38%
26%
16%
3.32
3%
14% 8%31%
3.50
3.75
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
17%
17%
5%
9%
23%
31%
32%
2.48
Don’t know
Number responding: 801
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
Senator Luz Escamilla
Former Senator Jim Dabakis
Promoting economic development and job creation
5% 39%
Councilman Stan Penfold
Reforming the liquor laws
32% 19% 5% 13% 15%
Businessman David Ibarra
Addressing homelessness in Utah
Attorney David Garbett
12%
Priority of Issues Facing Utah
Increasing funding for education
3.85
Promoting economic development and job creation
3.75
Addressing homelessness in Utah
3.50
Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Reforming the liquor laws
3.32 2.48
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
8
Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community
Don’t know
Councilman Stan Penfold
Businessman David Ibarra
Attorney David Garbett
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
Senator Luz Escamilla
Former Senator Jim Dabakis
Increasing funding for education
3.85
Promoting economic development and job creation
3.75
ISSUES: TAX REFORM Addressing homelessness in Utah
3.50
Increasing funding for education
3.85
State Leaders have proposed broadening the sales tax base by taxing some Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways service transactions. This will create greater balance and more stable Promoting economic development and job creation 3.75 revenue while lowering the overall sales tax rate. In general, do you Reforming the liquor laws 2.48 support or oppose state tax reform? Addressing homelessness in Utah
3.50
Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Tax Reform Support
3.32
Reforming the liquor laws
Oppose, 40%
3.32
2.48
Support, 49%
Oppose, Support, Don’t Know, 11% 40% 49% * Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support. Source: Dan Jones & Associates
50%
Don’t Know, 11%
52%
52%
49%
43%
45%
40%
36%
50% 43%
42%
Tax Reform Support29%
21% 52%
50%
43% 29%
18 to 24
52% 16%
49% 5% 36% 25 to 34
40% 35 to 44
45% 7% 43% 45 to 54
50% 13% 42% 55 to 64
7%
65 or older
21% 16% 7%
5% 18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
n Support n Oppose
45 to 54
13%
55 to 64
7%
65 or older
n Don’t know
* Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support. Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 2
9